Existing Member States Research Articles

The impact of national policies on Europe-wide power system transition towards net-zero 2050

This research aims to investigate the potential impact of national policies on the attainment of Europe's goal of achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Specifically, it analyses the effects of policies on the power sector, by evaluating capacity expansion portfolios, import reliance, and costs by 2050. A linear programming model, the IESA-EUPS, is utilized to optimize the expansion and operation of the power system, considering 28 nodes and hourly temporal resolution. The study includes five scenarios from 2020 to 2050, with varying levels of biomass and nuclear penetration based on existing member state policies. Results show that by 2050, changes mainly occur in the interplay between firm capacities and cross-border transmission levels. Limiting biomass can significantly increase nuclear energy generation, while enforcing all policies leads to a 40 % rise in cross-border transmission by 2050, due to imbalances between countries. Some member states, such as Spain and Finland, are less affected, whereas others are heavily reliant on firm nuclear capacities. Western European countries with strict biomass and nuclear restrictions may see a boost in nuclear installations in countries allowing it. Member states without both nuclear and biomass may rely more on variable renewables, resulting in surplus electricity and increased LCOE.

Three Lessons From the 2004 “Big Bang” Enlargement

The 2004 “Big Bang” enlargement was a powerful reminder that European integration is an instrument for peace and not just prosperity. The pace of that enlargement depended more on the requirements for stability than on the transformation of the candidate countries. It was also a reminder of the importance of forward-looking analysis. Candidates might meet the criteria for membership at the time of accession, but that is no guarantee that they will develop in ways that continue to reflect those criteria once they have gained entry. Finally, it was a reminder that enlargement changes the experience of membership for all member states and not just for those countries that gain entry. A larger Union requires greater self-discipline to hold down congestion in decision-making and greater multilateral surveillance to prevent the actions of one member state from undermining the benefits of membership for the rest. These reminders are important lessons in planning the European Union’s next historic enlargement. The next enlargement will follow a pace set by security considerations more than the transformative power of the accession process. It will depend on a robust analysis of convergence together with contingency planning for any staged accession. And it will require commitment from existing member states as well as candidate countries to what will become a very different European Union. This next enlargement will be challenging for all parts of Europe. Nevertheless, it is better than the alternative of no enlargement or an accession process with no credible endgame.

A timeline of freedom of movement in the European Economic Area

The European Economic Area (EEA) provides a common market for goods, labour, services, and capital. Promoting integration between countries through the free movement of labour, or more generally persons, pre-dates the previous forms of the EEA. However, during the Southern and Eastern Expansions of the European Union, there have been transition agreements on persons, designed to restrict immigration. Opening up labour markets to the new member states with significantly lower GDP per capita than existing states, has been contentious. This is why the use of transition agreements have permitted periods which existing members can limit immigration. Not all existing member states impose restrictions, and during the Eastern Enlargements, the restrictions were imposed for varying lengths of time by different existing members up to a maximum of seven years. During the transition agreement, the economies of new members and existing members can converge, which is ultimately designed to limit the pull factor of migration. In this note, we provide a concise resource of the timeline of the expansion of full free movement of persons for countries in the EEA and Switzerland.

The Changing Discourses of EU Enlargement: A Longitudinal Analysis of National Parliamentary Debates

AbstractDomestic support for EU enlargement across existing member states is understood to have shifted significantly since 2004. But, how? Here, we explore how enlargement has been framed discursively in the national parliaments of eight member states. Our dataset comprises over 18,000 statements from 1989 to 2019. We link our exploration to alternative explanations for change: IR‐based shifts in how applicant states are perceived and, from comparative politics, the ‘politicisation’ of EU membership in domestic party systems. We analyse changes in salience, sentiment and thematic foci. Our results confirm shifts in the perceptions of individual applicant states over time and an increased concern with issues of ‘identity’ in relation to enlargement. We find that whilst salience has declined, sentiment has turned negative and explore the distinctive discourses of ‘challenger parties’ in this regard.

유라시아경제연합(EAEU)과 유럽연합(EU): 경쟁과 협력의 변주

This paper analyzes the structure of EAEU-EU cooperation and competition in the post-Soviet space based on comparison between EU and EAEU and its differences, and examines how the Ukrainian war affected the ‘integration competition’ between the two blocs. The EU has preferred bilateral cooperation with individual EAEU member states over cooperation between integrated structures, and Russia has pursued ‘divide and rule’ strategy for the EU. The efforts of the two integrating blocs to gain an upper hand in the ‘integrated competition’ that began in earnest with the launch of the EAEU were, above all, dramatic in the Ukraine crisis that broke out in 2013. Furthermore, the recent Ukrainian war has created a new turning point in the ‘integration competition’ between the two integrating structures and has resulted in the EU reorganizing its expansion policy.BR The Ukrainian war has led to the withdrawal of EAEU members’ support for Russia, which has led to the weakening of EAEU’s centripetal power. In the process, the EU is gaining an opportunity to expand and develop bilateral relations with existing member states within the competing integration bloc (EAEU), and is gaining an advantage in the competition to attract non-aligned post-Soviet countries to its side. All of these factors are expected to have a significant impact on the future political and economic development of the post-Soviet space. The fact that the EU has changed its perspective on accepting membership to allow Ukraine and Moldova to be candidates and Georgia to be a primary candidate shows that the enlargement policy can still be an important tool to make the EU stronger in coordinating foreign and security policies. However, the EU’s enlargement policy has revealed major setbacks and limitations under the principle of unanimity. The EU could be faced formidable difficulties over the long term in activating expansion policy by joining these three countries as members.

A timeline of freedom of movement in the European Economic Area.

The European Economic Area (EEA) provides a common market for goods, labour, services, and capital. Promoting integration between countries through the free movement of labour, or more generally persons, pre-dates the previous forms of the EEA. However, during the Southern and Eastern Expansions of the European Union, there have been transition agreements on persons, designed to restrict immigration. Opening up labour markets to the new member states with significantly lower GDP per capita than existing states, has been contentious. This is why the use of transition agreements have permitted periods which existing members can limit immigration. Not all existing member states impose restrictions, and during the Eastern Enlargements, the restrictions were imposed for varying lengths of time by different existing members up to a maximum of seven years. During the transition agreement, the economies of new members and existing members can converge, which is ultimately designed to limit the pull factor of migration. In this note, we provide a concise resource of the timeline of the expansion of full free movement of persons for countries in the EEA and Switzerland.

A timeline of freedom of movement in the European Economic Area

The European Economic Area (EEA) provides a common market for goods, labour, services, and capital. Promoting integration between countries through the free movement of labour, or more generally persons, pre-dates the previous forms of the EEA. However, during the Southern and Eastern Expansions of the European Union, there have been transition agreements on persons, designed to restrict immigration. Opening up labour markets to the new member states with significantly lower GDP per capita than existing states, has been contentious. This is why the use of transition agreements have permitted periods which existing members can limit immigration. Not all existing member states impose restrictions, and during the Eastern Enlargements, the restrictions were imposed for varying lengths of time by different existing members up to a maximum of seven years. During the transition agreement, the economies of new members and existing members can converge, which is ultimately designed to limit the pull factor of migration. In this note, we provide a concise resource of the timeline of the expansion of full free movement of persons for countries in the EEA and Switzerland.

A Burgeoning Community of Justice? The European Union as a Promoter of Transitional Justice

Abstract Emerging as it does from Europe’s age of total war, the European Union (EU) has a long-standing interest in promoting transitional justice. However, since this desire to become a community of justice has remained implicit, it has been overlooked by much of the existing literature. Despite internal tensions between East and West, over the last 20 years the EU has sought to actively promote justice both ‘down’ onto its member states and ‘out’ into world politics. Based on an analysis of legal texts and regulations, as well as demonstrative case studies, I argue that the EU’s record in this area is mixed. Although it has been able to use membership to force changes as part of the accession process, existing member states and states outside of Europe have resisted these efforts. Despite its desire to incorporate transitional justice into its legal regime, I show that the EU’s efforts in promoting transitional justice remain largely political.

Diffusing Democracy in Europe: The European Parliament and European Community Enlargement Policy 1974-79

The article explores the role of the European Parliament (EP) in European Community (EC) Southern enlargement policy during the phase of democratic transitions in Greece, Portugal and Spain. It demonstrates how the EP insisted on adherence to core democratic principles as a condition for any accession negotiations, in particular the holding of free and fair parliamentary elections. Furthermore, the article shows how the EP made strategic use of the Southern European democratic transitions to demand the democratisation of the EC and the EP itself, with the holding of direct elections to the EP as its primary demand. Moreover, it discusses the EP’s attempt to make the observance of democratic principles a formal requirement of EC membership, both for applicant countries and for existing member states. Finally, it reconstructs the EP’s relations with counterparts in Greece, Portugal and Spain, which were intended to prepare the baselines of enlargement policy and EC accession.

Motives for foreign direct investment location in Europe and EU enlargement

European Union (EU) enlargement of the mid-2000s is likely to have changed the motives for foreign direct investment (FDI) location between the existing Member States (the EU15) and the new entrants of Central and Eastern Europe (CEECs), but it is poorly understood. This paper uses the framework of Dunning’s eclectic paradigm and data for 35,105 foreign investments in Europe not only to examine if the motives differ between these, but also how they are affected by the enlargement. Three asset-exploiting motives of market, resource and efficiency seeking are explored using a conditional logit model for the location choice. This is separately for greenfield and brownfield FDI, involving new facilities or jobs, where the latter is efficiency seeking from an expansion or a co-location of functions. The paper finds greenfield FDI in the CEECs seeks an export platform for the EU market and a low-skilled workforce but a national market and higher skills in the EU15. Brownfield FDI differs from this for expansions only, for which the EU market is important, reflecting scale economies. Surprisingly, EU enlargement has a much stronger effect on the FDI location motives in the EU15 by increasing the importance of the European market, which is possibly because the CEEC liberalisation was ongoing throughout the accession process. The paper finds evidence that the differences in the motives between the CEECs and EU15 are narrowing over time, but they are pronounced, and it is argued that they will persist.

EU Integration in the (Post)-Migrant-Crisis Context: Learning New Integration Modes?

This article explores the integration of the European Union (EU) as an institution after the 2015–2016 migrant crisis. Qualitative data from elite interviews in Brussels and policy analysis, in the framework of a bigger project about the impact of the migrant crisis on European integration, highlight EU learning about new integration modes as a key theme following the crisis. The article focuses on this theme and argues that EU integration has been happening through intensive learning after the migrant crisis, whereby the EU has been exploring a combination of certain integration modes: shaping the relationships with candidate countries by restraining from enlargement; shaping the relationships with (prospectively) exiting Member States by considering fuzziness at the borders; and exploring differentiation among the existing Member States, possibly through promoting a two-tier EU, instead of universal deepening. A key contribution lies in applying the notion ‘learning’ to understanding EU integration modes specifically after the migrant crisis.

Opinion 1/17 and the Future of Investment Dispute Settlement: Implications for the Design of a Multilateral Investment Court

On 30 April 2019, the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) rendered Opinion 1/17 declaring the institutionalized dispute settlement mechanism in the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement between the EU and Canada (CETA) compatible with EU law. Opinion 1/17 is a domestic, if sui generis, decision. In principle, it should have no impact on international dispute settlement, at least to the extent that the European Union or its member states are not involved. But the political and legal reality reveal otherwise. Since the Treaty of Lisbon, the European Union has progressively become a major player in international investment law with the power to shape negotiations. Currently, it pursues the establishment of a multilateral investment court in Working Group III of the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL). This chapter critically reviews Opinion 1/17, and explores its implications for the future of investment dispute settlement and, in particular, for the prospective multilateral investment court. It assesses the conditions that Opinion 1/17 sets for the Statute of such a court in terms of the applicable law, the right to regulate, independence and impartiality of adjudicators, and costs. The Opinion supports the EU’s negotiating template and, through findings of conditional constitutionality, encourages selective amendments, such as in order to ensure that the court is financially accessible to small and medium-sized investors. The chapter also considers Opinion 1/17 in light of existing member state investment treaties but ultimately dismisses any potential consequences it might have in their respect. Its overarching argument is that Opinion 1/17 is an authoritative, if imperfect, decision that will impact the design of future provisions on the settlement of investment disputes well beyond the confines of the European Union.

Determinants of Migration Following the EU Enlargement: A Panel Data Analysis

Abstract The Eastern enlargements of the European Union (EU) since the early 2000s have included post-transitional economies at a lower level of development than the existing member states and thus, have significantly affected the East-West migration flows and labour markets on both sides. This has provided a distinctive opportunity to study the effects of liberalisation and to identify economic factors leading to migration flows with the purpose of enabling better estimations of future migration trends. In this research, a panel data analysis with pair of country fixed effects and time fixed effects is used to explore several pull and push factors of the East-West EU migration flows in the period from 2000 to 2017. Results indicate that emigration rate responds rather quickly to the changes in GDP per capita and unemployment rate of the youth population in immigration country, with statistically significant elasticity coefficients, suggesting that international migration contributes significantly to adjusting the labour supply to fluctuations in economic activity.

Balkan Candidate Countries Running for Fiscal Consolidation: Legal Frameworks vs. Economic Results

The subject of this paper is four Balkan countries (Albania, Serbia, Macedonia, and Montenegro) that are determined to join the European Union. More particularly, it looks at their work towards accomplishing the political, legal and economic requirements for the EU. Thus, the legislation with the EU Fiscal Compact is the prime focus. Methodologically, the research is based on an assessment of fiscal and monetary legal documents, evaluating the stages of accomplishing the harmonization with the EU’s conditions. Further, cross‑section analyses are made by in putting selected indicators; additionally, the authors compare the four countries’ achievements. The EU’s rigorous fiscal rules are being quietly bypassed, but more frequently by existing member states than the candidate states; this statement is founded on legal and economic arguments, with mathematical estimations. Consequently, the authors question the political courage and financial capacity of the examined countries to cope with the fiscal compact of the superior EU 28 members. The answers are supported with numerous analyses of EU Reports for each country, as well as tables and figures that compare the states’ results and economic achievements vs. EU fiscal consolidation rules. The EU 28 average is givenin addition as a comparison. The conclusion gives across analysis between the four countries and the EU 28 member states, with accompanying argumentation to the main statement about the legal and economic developments of the examined Balkan countries as well as a future prognosis.

Cybersecurity in the European Union

The coordinated Denial of Service attacks in Estonia 2007, the successful hacker attacks against the German Bundestag 2015 and the increasing number of cyber-crimes challenge the European Union (EU). In order to overcome these challenges the EU initiated a cyber security strategy in 2013. This paper follows up the question, whether the measures of this strategy are adequate in order to tackle the challenges of the cyberspace in modern times and which improvements can be done. The focus will rely on the analysis of the EU’s cyber security strategy 2013 as well as its advancement of 2017. The three issues ‘cyber resilience‘, ‘reducing cybercrime’ and ‘cyber defence policy and capabilities’ shall be analyzed. The unlimited sphere of the cyberspace, the invisible and barely identifiable opponents and the focus on national regulations seem to be an unsolved dilemma in the EU. After analyzing the current state, the paper shall formulate future recommendations for action to postulate an improved ‘pooling and sharing’ as well as the coordination and involvement of existing member states’ cyber capabilities. The devolution of responsibilities regarding cyber security to the EU stage is desirable in order to increase the European potency, because a divided EU will have great difficulties enforcing its interests over attacking opponents.

Regional standards of membership and enlargement in the EU and ASEAN

For regional organizations (ROs) as geographically defined entities, questions of membership often raise moral questions about the very foundations of regional identity. To date, comparative approaches to the role of norms in the politics of RO enlargement are a missing piece in the regionalism literature. This paper assumes that enlargement practices are shaped by discourses about legitimate actorness. Drawing on the concept of “standards of civilization,” I argue that prospective RO members are judged against a set of norms—the standard of membership—which constitute basic ideas about the identity of the regional international society. As evidence from the Spanish and Greek accession to the European Community and the accession of Myanmar and Cambodia to ASEAN shows, this standard is not a static catalogue of cultural values, as existing accounts suggest, but develops in response to accession requests which trigger normative crises among the existing member states. In such situations, RO actors may argue for the inclusion of new norms in the standard of membership by drawing on “cognitive priors”. Enlargement processes thus reveal a dialectical relation between regional norms and boundary-drawing; while a regional standard of membership informs the redefinition of an RO’s boundaries, the accession of new candidates also transforms that very standard.

Regulatory or expropriatory? On the implications of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership for the German land policy

The European Commission hopes that the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) will result in increasing wealth, more competitiveness and hundreds of thousands of new jobs. There are also plans to harmonize standards and to introduce or monitor new regulations and norms – beside and above national legislation – that go beyond the existing member state legal framework and are to be safeguarded by means of regulatory collaboration and legal supervision. To the extent observable after the 15th round of negotiations between the European Commission and the US administration, the debate on the TTIP has not yet reached planning law, construction law or procurement law in practice. However, the chapter on “investment” of the TTIP-draft is of paramount importance for the land policies in the member states. Land as immovable properties is mentioned explicitly as an investment asset covered by TTIP. Land policy is the “blind spot” in investment protection agreements. This paper analyses the undergoing dynamics for the comprehensive land policy structure in Germany and its capital Berlin. Berlin plays a leading role in the current discourse of the realignment of land policy and the renaissance of public affordable housing policies. The purpose test of TTIP − according to the hierarchy of norms from the constitutional and national sphere down to the municipal level – will comprise of the criteria fairness, legitimacy, the balancing of investors’ expectations (and potentially their claims), and states’ regulatory measures. My paper explains why the standards and provisions of TTIP potentially conflict with the constitutionally guaranteed locally self-government in land policy as community institution(s) and the efficiency of urban planning. The democratic legitimacy of TTIP remains to be verified since the controversial relation and distinction between lawful regulation, the fair and equitable treatment standard, and indirect expropriation under the “TTIP-regime” lack substantial empirical evidence.

The European Parliament's Role: Towards New Copenhagen Criteria for Existing Member States?

AbstractThe new own‐initiative report the European Parliament is preparing has three aims: to provide a formal evaluation of the recent initiatives by the Commission and the Council; to present a viable alternative; and to do so in the form of a legislative report, so as to obtain a formal reaction from the Commission. The institutions have proposed several possible solutions to the crisis of the Rule of Law in the EU. It is time to put them into a coherent system. The report will focus on five issues: the body for a permanent country‐by‐country monitoring of democracy, the Rule of Law and fundamental rights in the EU; the role of the Agency for Fundamental Rights; whether and how infringement procedures should be revisited in this context; what a proper pre‐Article 7 Treaty on European Union (TEU) procedure should look like; and what a valid legal basis for the proposed changes should be.

Internal Enlargement in the European Union: Beyond Legalism and Political Expediency

The argument of this paper proceeds in three stages. It begins by criticizing the tendency in recent debates on sub-state nationalism in Europe to avoid the deeper questions of political morality concerning the entitlement (or otherwise) of these sub-state nations that are separating from existing Member States to assume membership of the European Union. It then raises these deeper questions, and argues, against Joseph Weiler in particular, that the correct attitude for the EU to take is one of considered neutrality rather than strong endorsement either of the case for accession or of the case against accession by new internal states. In the final part of the argument what role, if any, the EU has to play in the absence of such a directorial mandate, is examined. A more modest procedural role is then considered, and dismissed as unlikely though attractive. In conclusion, it is argued that the EU nonetheless influences the debate over the sovereign aspirations of sub-state nations simply by existing, and thereby changing the balance of political incentives in a way that is more accommodating of forms of autonomy short of independence.

Sincere Cooperation, Respect for Democracy and EU Citizenship: Sufficient to Guarantee Scotland's Future in the European Union?

The position of an independent Scotland within the European Union (EU) has recently been a subject of considerable debate. The European Commission has argued that any newly independent state formed from the territory of an existing Member State would require an Accession Treaty. This article critiques that official position and distinguishes between a set of claims that could be made on behalf of an independent Scottish state, and a set of claims that could be made on behalf of the citizens of an independent Scottish state vis-a-vis the EU. It argues that the general principles of the EU Treaties ought to govern how Scotland is treated, and that a new Accession Treaty is not necessary. Furthermore, notwithstanding the jurisprudence of the European Court of Justice (ECJ) in the area of EU citizenship, we conclude that EU citizenship itself is not sufficient to guarantee or generate membership of the EU.