Exchange Rate Trends Research Articles

Dynamic Relationship of Commodities Prices and EUR/USD Exchange Rate Trends in the Recent Past

Gold and Oil have always had a central role within the international economy, and meet the interests of many investors, and in particular, speculators. The Euro introduction (1999) has added the Euro-Dollar exchange rate as a further main variable that the operators, investing on these commodities, have to consider when implementing their strategies. This paper analyzes the mutual relationship between commodities prices (gold and oil) and the Euro/Dollar exchange rate, within the time frame from 2004 to 2014, so to find which specific variable can give significant information on the expected variation of other variables and on which time horizon. This can support the of investors’ choices on taking more effective speculative positions. Results obtained by means of a VAR model show some significant statistical relationship between the three variables on the short term (i.e. when considering daily data), but also some possible relationship on a longer term (monthly data), suggesting that oil prices can give significant information on the expected value of the Euro/Dollar exchange rate.

Exchange Rate Trends and Export Performance in Nigeria: A Descriptive Approach

This study examines the exchange rate trends and export performance in Nigeria between 1970-2015 using a descriptive approach. Particularly, the study emphasizes the impacts of exchange rate volatility on export demand in the country. The choice of this period is underscored by the fact that the starting date predates the era of the structural adjustment program (SAP) which is often described as the good days where agricultural and non-oil exports tremendously increased. Again, this date coincides with period when the external trade and exchange rate were indeed liberalized. Findings from descriptive analysis show that despite the policy pronouncements in the period covered, exchange rate volatility greatly affected export performance in Nigeria, in particular, the volume of export demand. The study recommends a deliberate exchange rate policy action that will have good implication for export growth in Nigeria.

Exchange Rate Trends and Export Performance in Nigeria: A Descriptive Approach

This study examines the exchange rate trends and export performance in Nigeria between 1970-2015 using a descriptive approach. Particularly, the study emphasizes the impacts of exchange rate volatility on export demand in the country. The choice of this period is underscored by the fact that the starting date predates the era of the structural adjustment program (SAP) which is often described as the good days where agricultural and non-oil exports tremendously increased. Again, this date coincides with period when the external trade and exchange rate were indeed liberalized. Findings from descriptive analysis show that despite the policy pronouncements in the period covered, exchange rate volatility greatly affected export performance in Nigeria, in particular, the volume of export demand. The study recommends a deliberate exchange rate policy action that will have good implication for export growth in Nigeria.

A Study on Efficient Market Hypothesis to Predict Exchange Rate Trends Using Sentiment Analysis of Twitter Data

Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), states that at any point in time in a liquid market security prices fully reflect all available information. This paper presents a study of proving the hypothesis through daily Twitter sentiments using the hybrid approach of the lexicon-based approach and the naive Bayes classifier. In this research we analyze the currency exchange rate movement of Indonesia Rupiah vs US dollar as a way of testing the Efficient Market Hypothesis. In order to find a correlation between the prediction sentiments from Twitter data and the actual currency exchange rate trends we collect Twitter data every day and compute the overall sentiment to label them as positive or negative. Experimental results have shown 69% correct prediction of sentiment analysis and 65.7% correlation with positive sentiments. This implies that EMH is semi-strong Efficient Market Hypothesis, and that public information provide by Twitter sentiment correlate with changes in the exchange market trends.

The Construction and Application of a New Exchange Rate Forecast Model Combining ARIMA with a Chaotic BP Algorithm

ABSTRACTThis article introduces a new model that combines an ARIMA with a chaotic BP (Backforward Propagation Neural Network) algorithm for exchange rate forecasting purposes, which is based on sample data collected from January 4, 2010, to October 20, 2011. The forecast of the exchange rate trend is then provided for the subsequent twenty-five days. Other models are also constructed, such as the ARIMA, BP, ARIMA, and BP algorithms, in order to evaluate the forecast accuracy. Based on our results, the combination of an ARIMA and a chaotic BP algorithm outperforms all other models in terms of the statistical accuracy of short-term forecasts.

CAPE Around the World Update 2015 Return Differences and Exchange Rate Movements

We update our annual analysis of expected returns for 38 equity markets around the world. For the first time since we started our series in 2012, we find most emerging markets now exhibit higher expected returns than developed markets. In particular the expected returns for the core European stock markets of Germany, the UK and Switzerland have declined after strong performances of 2014 and early 2015. For many of these markets, expected returns are now at or below historical averages, but still significantly above the mediocre returns expected for the US stock market.In this study we examine the significant differences between expected returns in different countries. We demonstrate that exchange rate movements exert a considerable influence on stock market returns. Contrary to common belief, exchange rate movements also matter for longer investment horizons of, say, five to ten years. We show how stock market valuation differences correlate with exchange rate movements, and perhaps surprisingly we show that CAPE differences between two countries offer some insight into their long-term exchange rate trends. One likely outcome of our analysis is that over the next five years European stock markets will likely show higher returns in euros than do US markets in dollars. We would quickly add that exchange rate movements may reduce the effective return difference when calculated in a common currency such as the euro or the dollar. Thus, to reap the full benefits of a global equity investment strategy, US investors should use currency-hedged investments to avoid losses from devalued foreign currencies.

The Effects of Economic Variables on Exchange Rate, Modeling and Forecasting: Case of Iran

This paper investigates the model estimation and data forecasting of exchange rate using artificial neural network. Recent studies have shown the classification and prediction power of the neural networks. It has been demonstrated that a neural network can approximate any continuous function. In this research, ANN is employed in training and learning processes and after modeling, the forecast performance is measured by making use of a loss function (RMSE). By sensitivity analysis, the importance and the weight of each economic variable on exchange rate such as consumer price index, old price, oil price and total value of export and import have been determined. The results show that Iran consumer price index is the most effective factor on exchange rate trend. In addition to, it is possible to estimate a model to forecast the value of exchange rate even by having access to a limited subset of data.

Overvaluation trend of the Brazilian currency in the 2000s: empirical estimation

The aim of this paper is to discuss the trend of overvaluation of the Brazilian currency in the 2000s, presenting an econometric model to estimate the real exchange rate (RER) and which should be a reference level of the RER to guide long-term economic policy. In the econometric model, we consider long-term structural and short-term components, both of which may be responsible for explaining overvaluation trend of the Brazilian currency. Our econometric exercise confirms that the Brazilian currency had been persistently overvalued throughout almost all of the period under analysis, and we suggest that the long-term reference level of the real exchange rate was reached in 2004. In July 2014, the average nominal exchange rate should have been around 2.90 Brazilian reais per dollar (against an observed nominal rate of 2.22 Brazilian reais per dollar) to achieve the 2004 real reference level (average of the year). That is, according to our estimates, in July 2014 the Brazilian real was overvalued at 30.6 per cent in real terms relative to the reference level. Based on these findings we conclude the paper suggesting a mix of policy instruments that should have been used in order to reverse the overvaluation trend of the Brazilian real exchange rate, including a target for reaching a real exchange rate in the medium and the long-run which would favor resource allocation toward more technological intensive sectors.

Investigation on the Impact of US Anti-dumping Measures during the “Catfish War” on Vietnamese Pangasius Exports

The Vietnamese pangasius industry has faced anti-dumping (AD) measures imposed by the United States of America (USA). This dispute between the USA and Vietnam is known as the “Catfish War”. Based on monthly time series data from January 1999 to December 2011, an econometric approach is considered, in which regression models are taken into account for investigating how the USA AD measures impact on the volume and the value of Vietnam’s pangasius exports. As resulted in the estimation, the paper found that although the anti-dumping taxes imposed on Vietnam pangasius, it is not so seriously problematic for exporters in the long-term. One of the reasons is that Vietnam pangasius exporters are dynamic in developing market diversification by shifting from the USA to the European market.. However, in the short term, the trade dispute between the USA and Vietnam is a warning alarm for Vietnam pangasius exporters. In addition, the paper does not have any evidence to confirm that the upward trend of the real exchange rate between the VND and the USD is causing changes in either the pangasius export volume or the pangasius export value. Also there is no confirmation of a significant relationship between the inflation rate in Vietnam and the export value.

Official FX interventions through derivatives

We use high-frequency data to study the effects of currency swap auctions carried out by the Brazilian Central Bank on the USDBRL exchange rate. We find that official currency swap auctions impact the exchange rate in a significant way, even though they do not directly alter the supply of foreign currency in the market. We show that during our sample period auctions of contracts in which the Central Bank took a short position in USD had larger effects than those in which the Central Bank took a long position. The supply of currency swaps to the market provides an alternative for traders that demand foreign currency for financial (speculative or hedging) rather than transactional reasons, and thus affects the demand for foreign currency and its price. This mechanism is likely to be particularly relevant when forecasters extrapolate exchange rate trends at short-term horizons.

Multi-scale Foreign Exchange Rates Ensemble for Classification of Trends in Forex Market

Foreign exchange (Forex) market is the largest trading market in the world. Predicting the trend of the market and performing automated trading are important for investors. Recently, machine learning techniques have emerged as a powerful trend to predict foreign exchange (FX) rates. In this paper, we propose a new classification method for identifying up, down, and sideways trends in Forex market foreign exchange rates. A multi-scale feature extraction approached is used for training multiple classifiers for each trend. Bayesian voting is used to find the ensemble of classifiers for each trend. Performance of the system is validated using different metrics. The results show superiority of ensemble classifier over individual ones.

The Need for Selective Credit Policy Implementation: Case of Croatia

The aim of this paper is to explore the economic circumstances in which the selective credit policy, the least used instrument of four types of instruments on disposal to central banks, should be used and to analyze the possibility to implement such policy in Croatia. The most significant example includes the use of selective credit policies in response to the emergence of the global financial crisis by the FED. Specifics of the potential use of selective credit policies as the instigator of economic growth in Croatia, the small open economy, are determined by high eurisation of financial system, fixed exchange rate and long-term trend growth of external debt that is related to the need to maintain high levels of foreign reserves. In such conditions, the classic forms of selective credit policies are unsuitable for the introduction. Several alternative approaches to implement selective credit policies are examined in this paper. Also thorough analysis about distribution of selective monetary policy loans among economic sectors in Croatia is conducted in order to minimize the risk of investing funds and maximize the return in order to influence the GDP growth. For the purpose of this paper, authors analyse the movement of sales within economic sectors and the movement of gross value added within economic sectors in order to optimize the distribution of selective monetary policy loans among economic sectors. The results of the research suggest that the releasing of than 1 billion € of its international reserves through direct placements into selected economic sectors might impact the GDP growth of 3,23% p.a.

Exchange Rate Expectations of Chartists and Fundamentalists

This paper provides novel evidence on exchange rate expectations of both chartists and fundamentalists separately. These groups indeed form expectations differently. Chartists change their expectations more often; however, all professionals' expectations vary considerably as they generally follow strong exchange rate trends. In line with non-linear exchange rate-modeling, professionals expect mean reversion only if exchange rates deviate much from PPP. Chartists survive in FX markets as they forecast equally accurately as fundamentalists. Unexpected from an efficient market viewpoint, chartists even outperform fundamentalists at short horizons. Overall, these findings clearly support the chartist-fundamentalist approach.

Trends in European real exchange rates

We study a newly created panel data set of relative prices for a large number of consumer goods among 31 European countries over a 15‐year period. The data set includes eurozone members both before and after the inception of the euro, floating exchange rate countries of Western Europe, and emerging market economies of Eastern and Southern Europe. We find that there is a substantial and continuing deviation from purchasing power parity (PPP) at all levels of aggregation, both for traded and non‐traded goods, even among eurozone members. Real exchange rates (RER) exhibit two clear properties in the sample (a) they are closely tied to gross domestic product (GDP) per capita relative to the European average, at all levels of aggregation and for both cross country time series variation; (b) they are highly positively correlated with variation in the relative price of non‐traded goods. We then construct a simple two‐sector endowment economy model of real exchange rate determination which exhibits these two properties, calibrated to match the data. Simulating the model using the historical relative GDP per capita for each country, we find that for most countries, there is a close fit between the actual and simulated real exchange rate. In terms of policy relevance, the model can offer suggestions of the degree to which real exchange rates in Europe (both in and out of the eurozone) have been overvalued (by approximately 15% in Greece and Portugal and 6% in Italy and Spain). —Martin Berka and Michael B. Devereux

Exchange rate expectations of chartists and fundamentalists

This paper provides novel evidence on exchange rate expectations of both chartists and fundamentalists separately. These groups indeed form expectations differently. Chartists change their expectations more often; however, all professionals' expectations vary considerably as they generally follow strong exchange rate trends. In line with non-linear exchange rate-modeling, professionals expect mean reversion only if exchange rates deviate strongly from PPP. Chartists survive in currency markets since they forecast just as accurately as fundamentalists. Unexpectedly from an efficient market viewpoint, chartists even outperform fundamentalists at short horizons. Overall, these findings clearly support the chartist–fundamentalist approach.

A comment on ‘Testing the validity of quasi-PPP hypothesis: evidence from a recent panel unit-root test with structural breaks’

In a recent study, Guloglu et al. (2011) took 18 Turkish real exchange rate series and used a panel unit-root test, which allows for structural breaks in the level and the trend of the real exchange rate. When the practitioner allows for structural breaks, the rejection of the null hypothesis of unit root in the real exchange rate does not imply that Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) holds. The authors claim that they found evidence of Quasi-PPP (Q-PPP). Yet, the latter does not include either linear trend or trend breaks. Their results cannot be considered evidence of either Trend-PPP (T-PPP) or Trend-Qualified PPP (TQ-PPP), since both exclude trend shifts.

Exchange Rate Expectations of Chartists and Fundamentalists

This paper provides novel evidence on exchange rate expectations of both chartists and fundamentalists separately. These groups indeed form expectations differently. Chartists change their expectations more often; however, all professionals' expectations vary considerably as they generally follow strong exchange rate trends. In line with non-linear exchange rate-modeling, professionals expect mean reversion only if exchange rates deviate much from PPP. Chartists survive in FX markets as they forecast equally accurately as fundamentalists. Unexpected from an efficient market viewpoint, chartists even outperform fundamentalists at short horizons. Overall, these findings clearly support the chartist-fundamentalist approach.

Official Interventions through Derivatives: Affecting the Demand for Foreign Exchange

We use high-frequency data to study the effects of currency swaps auctions by the Brazilian Central Bank on the BRL/USD spot exchange rate. We find that official currency swap auctions impact the level of the exchange rate, even though they do not directly alter the supply of foreign currency in the market. The maximum impact occurs 60 to 70 minutes after the initial official announcement of an auction, and typically shortly after the results of the auctions are made public. The official supply of currency swaps to the market provides an alternative for traders that demand foreign currency for financial (speculative or hedging) rather than transactional reasons, and thus affects the demand for foreign currency and its price. This mechanism is likely to be particularly relevant when forecasters extrapolate exchange rate trends at short-term horizons.

Research Note:Threshold Effects on Development of Tourism and Economic Growth

This paper uses 1996–2006 data on the top 10 countries in the 2008 Country Brand Index to examine threshold effects. When exchange rate changes are higher than the threshold value, the coefficient is positive. This means that continued tourism development can greatly enhance economic growth. If a currency continues to depreciate dramatically, the correlation between the two will disappear. The interactions between tourism development and economic growth are different under various ratio threshold values of exchange rate changes. This study shows that, if the government pays attention to trends in exchange rates and implements appropriate policies, tourism can effectively boost economic growth; at the same time, inflation suppresses economic growth. Tourism can potentially contribute to economic development and so it is advisable for governments to dedicate strategic resources to tourism in order to boost short-term economic growth.

Exchange rates, soybean supply response, and deforestation in South America

The advancement of South America's agro-pastoral frontier has been widely linked to losses in biodiversity and tropical forests, with particular impacts on the Brazilian cerrado, the Atlantic Forest, and the Amazon. Here we consider an important, yet largely overlooked, driver of South America's soybean expansion, namely the devaluation of local currencies against the US dollar in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Much interest has emerged in recent years over the environmental implications of soybean production in Brazil, with evidence of both direct incursions into moist tropical forest by soybean producers and of potential indirect effects, via the displacement of existing ranching operations. In this research we utilize historical trends in soybean prices, exchange rates, and cropland dedicated to soybean production in Bolivia, Paraguay, and Brazil to estimate the impact of currency devaluations on area of production. The results suggest that approximately 80,000km2, or 31% of the current extent of soybean production in these countries, emerged as a supply area response to the devaluation of local currencies in the late 1990s. The results also indicate that the more recent depreciation of the dollar and appreciation of the Brazilian real have counteracted a recent rise in global soybean prices, in the process sparing an estimated nearly 90,000km2 from new cropland, 40,000km2 of this in the Amazon alone. Amidst an increasingly neoliberal economic environment, where barriers to trade are jettisoned in favor of the free flow of commodities, relative currency values will occupy an important role in the future sourcing of both agricultural expansion and environmental degradation.