Price Exchange Research Articles

On Digital Transformation Experience of the Order Fulfillment Process

The paper examines the process of order execution being won on a tender platform. Due to the short order fulfillment deadline, the work starts not at the moment of contract signing, but at the moment of winning the tender. This leads to additional risks of non-fulfillment of the order and the emergence of unfinished production. In the conditions of stock exchange prices in commodity markets, the process of the production cost determination becomes a more complex task, requiring daily cost reevaluation with the integration of heterogeneous information systems. Therefore, a transition from automation to digital transformation is required. The literature review on the issue of manufacturing enterprise digital transformation has been completed at work. The differences between the definitions of digitalization, automation and digital transformation are described. The most promising technologies for digital transformation are outlined. Based on the reviewed literature, the main problems of digital transformation, including managerial issues highlighted by the authors as the most important, are identified. The operations of several enterprises within one information space are described, indicating the information systems used. The process of creating an order on a tender platform for the examined manufacturing enterprise is detailed, as well as a detailed description of order creation. The issue of production cost determination in the conditions of order execution start prior to contract signing is discussed. The pressing issue of digital development of an industrial enterprise due to the transition to new information systems is presented. The problems of using current information systems in production are described. The market analysis of modern Russian, foreign, and open-source systems with a description of the issues of their application is provided. A method for unfinished product automation in a new order is proposed.

A Research of Fine-Tuning CNN-LSTM Model for Gold Price Prediction

Gold price and foreign exchange price prediction are usually regarded as serialized data with strong time correlation. It is precisely because of this feature that the performance of traditional convolutional neural networks is often not as good as that of recurrent neural networks. This paper fine-tunes the CNN-LSTM model in two ways. The first is to simplify the input data, convert the time series into binary data, and change the model task from predicting prices to predicting price fluctuations. The second is to add a dropout layer and use the dropout layer to improve the model's overfitting problem. The results demonstrate that the improved model outperforms the first model, with prediction accuracy rising from 54% to 57%. Furthermore, the refined model is not limited to processing the gold price series; it can also be applied to other time series, and when paired with other models, it could yield even better outcomes.

Exchange Rates and Prices in the Netherlands and Britain over the Past Four Centuries

AbstractThe paper studies the long‐term stability of the purchasing‐power‐parity (PPP) relation using data for the Netherlands and Great Britain (earlier the Dutch Republic and England) from 1590 until 2020. We begin by investigating the behavior of the real exchange rate in rate‐of‐growth form finding strong evidence supporting long‐run relative PPP. Turning to price levels, we find evidence of mean‐reverting behavior over the whole period with one long‐lived shift in mean between 1788 and 1931. The myriad other factors that varied over this long period that might have affected the stability of the PPP relation do not appear to have mattered.

Shorting the Dollar When Global Stock Markets Roar: The Equity Hedging Channel of Exchange Rate Determination

Abstract This paper investigates the influence of global equity market value shocks on institutional investors’ (IIs’) hedging behavior and the resultant effects on exchange rates. Employing unique granular daily data on Israeli IIs’ foreign exchange (FX) forward flows and prices and a granular instrumental variable estimation approach, we find that foreign equity market value shocks generate significant selling of U.S. dollar forwards by IIs, as a hedge against heightened FX exposure, along with significant exchange rate appreciation. A value-shock-induced one-standard-deviation increase in IIs’ supply of forward flows appreciates IIs’ forward rate by 0.53%. (JEL E44, F3, F31, G15, G23)

Impact of Macroeconomic Indicators on The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) Composite Index Performance

This study examines the impact of macroeconomic indicators on the performance of the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) Composite Index from 2014 to 2023, focusing on four key variables: interest rates, inflation, money supply (M2), and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Using a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, the research investigates the short-term dynamics between these variables. The findings show that in the VAR estimation, only the lag 1 M2 value has a statistically significant coefficient. However, the Impulse Response Function (IRF) analysis reveals that shocks to the Bank Indonesia rate, inflation, money supply, and GDP initially cause significant fluctuations in the Jakarta Stock Exchange price index, but these effects are short-lived, with the index stabilizing around zero after several periods. These results provide valuable insights for policymakers and investors, emphasizing the importance of understanding macroeconomic conditions for making informed stock market decisions.

Analisis Dinamika dan Keseimbangan Pembiayaan Bank Umum Syariah Dengan Pendekatan Error Correction Model

The study aims to analyze the dynamics and balance of financing of Islamic Commercial Banks in Indonesia during the period 2015-2023 with a focus on changes in monetary policy, real effective exchange rate, price level, profitability, and capital adequacy. The research method uses a quantitative approach with analysis techniques using the error-correction model (ECM) approach. The results showed that monetary policy, real effective exchange rate, profitability, and capital adequacy ratio have a significant influence on the financing of Islamic Commercial Banks in Indonesia in the long run. In contrast, the price level does not show a significant influence on financing in the long run. These results explain that macroeconomic factors and banking performance are crucial in determining the balance of financing in the Islamic banking sector in Indonesia. The findings suggest that changes in monetary policy, which often reflect overall economic conditions, can affect financing decisions in Islamic banks. In addition, fluctuating real exchange rates can affect the price competitiveness and financial position of banks. Profitability, as an indicator of financial health, and the capital adequacy ratio, as an indicator of a bank's ability to bear risk, were also found to have a significant influence, suggesting that the internal performance of Islamic banks is decisive in the financing provided.

The Dynamic Impact of Asymmetric Monetary Shocks on the Exchange Rate and Price Level Evolution in Zimbabwe: A Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model

The Dynamic Impact of Asymmetric Monetary Shocks on the Exchange Rate and Price Level Evolution in Zimbabwe: A Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model

General Equilibrium Model for Monetary Policy Responses to Macroeconomic Instabilities in Developing Economy: A Ghanaian Perspective

The study develops a standard New Keynesian model to examine how monetary authority reacts to both domestic and external shocks as well as how its policy decision impacts the general macroeconomy in developing African economy. Using Bayesian estimation techniques and a Ghanaian dataset, the article also seeks to determine the best-suited monetary policy rule for Ghana and countries with similar characteristics. The basic finding is that a forward-looking Taylor rule—where authority reacts to one-period-ahead inflation deviation from target alongside the current output gap—is the most appropriate monetary policy rule for Ghana. Another salient finding is that variations in output are mainly driven by price markup, labour supply, monetary policy and productivity shocks across the forecast horizons. In addition, the dominant determinants of inflation are exchange rate risk premium and price markup shocks. Collectively, the article also unveils that monetary policy responses to macroeconomic shocks are broadly in line with conventional economic theory. There is also conspicuous evidence that the general equilibrium model with representative consumers is practically suitable for monetary policy analysis in Ghana, as contractionary monetary policy impulse is able to contemporaneously induce disinflation and output contraction. Given the strong evidence of a large segment of the unbanked population in Ghana, the findings in this study could be verified based on a model that allows for the co-existence of optimizing and non-optimizing consumers. JEL Classification: B41, C5, C11, D11, D21, D41, D42, E2, E12, E43, E52, E58, F31, F41

Exchange Rate, Money Wages and Prices in Egypt (1991 – 2021)

Exchange Rate, Money Wages and Prices in Egypt (1991 – 2021)

Assessing the Impact of Inflation and Exchange Rate on Nigerian Gross Domestic Product (1981-2022)

This study evaluated the impact of inflation and exchange rate on the Nigerian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from 1981 to 2022. The data for this study were obtained from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin. Multiple Linear Regression model was adopted for the study to determine the relationship between the GDP, the inflation and exchange rates and the result showed that there is a significant relationship with the p-value (0.005). The result also showed with Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method that inflation rate has a negative impact on the Nigerian GDP while exchange rate is significant with (p-value <0,005) over the years of study. The value of the coefficient of variation R2 for this research is 92.2% indicating that inflation and exchange rate account for about 92% of the variation in the GDP over the years of study. It was observed there was an increase in exchange rate and price level is also detrimental to the economic growth, this means it contributes to the growth of Nigerian GDP over the period of study.

The Effect of the Exchange Rate on Price Stability in Iraq from 2004-2022

This Paper examines how the exchange rate influences price stability in Iraq using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method. Monthly data covering the period from January 2004 to April 2022 are employed, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) used as the dependent variable and Exchange Rate (EX), Oil Prices (OILR), Money Supply (M2), Policy Interest Rates (IR), and Government Spending (GOSP) as independent variables. The ARDL bound test results confirm a long-run relationship between the exchange rate and price stability in Iraq; the results indicate that a more robust exchange rate is associated with higher price stability, emphasizing potential benefits from currency strength. The positive link between government spending and price stability suggests the stabilizing impact of fiscal policies. In contrast, the negative association between interest rates and price stability corresponds to expectations of reduced economic activity. Findings on money supply support the quantity theory of money, and the negative relationship between oil revenue and price stability highlights challenges associated with economic reliance on oil. The Paper offers valuable insights for policymakers, emphasizing the importance of exchange rate stability, economic diversification, and precise adjustments in monetary and fiscal policies to ensure sustained price stability in Iraq. Paper type: Research paper.

Balance function generated by limiting conditions

This article conducts an analysis of the inherent constraints governing the formation of the price function that describes the interaction between two markets. The research not only identifies these constraints but also obtains an explicit form of the specified function.The key factors considered in constructing the price function are defined in the article. Through analyzing these constraints and their impact on market interaction, a formula for the price function is provided. This approach not only reveals the essence of natural constraints in forming the price function but also provides a contextual foundation for negotiations shaping a fair exchange price for the interaction process between two markets. This offers a theoretical basis for modeling and solving similar problems arising during practical economic activities.Two economies, Economy 1 and Economy 2, producing goods X and Y with linear Production Possibility Curve (PPC) graphs, are under consideration. The cost of producing one unit of good X relative to Y is denoted as R1 for Economy 1 and R2 for Economy 2. Exchange between economies occurs in a market, where the possible exchange is Δx units of X for Δy = Rmarket · Δx units of Y, and vice versa.If R1 is less than R2, Economy 1 specializes in the production of X, and Economy 2 specializes in Y, fostering mutually beneficial trade. For mutually beneficial exchange on the market with a price Rmarket, it is necessary and sufficient that R1 ≤ Rmarket ≤ R2.The article also explores the concept of a fair exchange price, specifying conditions for symmetry, reciprocity, and scale invariance. Notably, it indicates that the unique solution satisfying these conditions is f(R1,R2) = √ R1 · R2.In the context of balanced exchange, where economies gain equal profit per unit of the acquired good, the balanced exchange price Rmarket[balance] is determined as Rmarket = √ R1 · R2. This serves as a fair price, meeting the aforementioned conditions of symmetry, reciprocity, and scale invariance.In the provided example with R1 = 2 and R2 = 8, the article examines the mutually beneficial interval for Rmarket and computes the balanced and fair exchange price.

Determinants of the competitiveness of world palm oil exports: A cointegration analysis

The purpose of this research is to determine the impact of international palm oil prices, prices of its substitute and complementary goods, and the exchange rate on the competitiveness of 30 palm oil exporting countries over the period from 2011 to 2019, using monthly data. The symmetric comparative advantage index was estimated, and a convergence effect was found, whereby emerging countries exhibited greater specialization than industrialized countries. Unit root and cointegration tests were applied, in addition to FMOLS and DOLS methods. The analysis revealed that decreases in palm and vegetable oil prices, coupled with an increase in the exchange rate and prices of soybeans and biodiesel, enhanced the competitiveness of palm oil exports.

Segmenting Bitcoin Transactions for Price Movement Prediction

Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin have received substantial attention from financial exchanges. Unfortunately, arbitrage-based financial market price prediction models are ineffective for cryptocurrencies. In this paper, we utilize standard machine learning models and publicly available transaction data in blocks to predict the direction of Bitcoin price movement. We illustrate our methodology using data we merged from the Bitcoin blockchain and various online sources. This gave us the Bitcoin transaction history (block IDs, block timestamps, transaction IDs, senders’ addresses, receivers’ addresses, transaction amounts), as well as the market exchange price, for the period from 13 September 2011 to 5 May 2017. We show that segmenting publicly available transactions based on investor typology helps achieve higher prediction accuracy compared to the existing Bitcoin price movement prediction models in the literature. This transaction segmentation highlights the role of investor types in impacting financial markets. Managerially, the segmentation of financial transactions helps us understand the role of financial and cryptocurrency market participants in asset price movements. These findings provide further implications for risk management, financial regulation, and investment strategies in this new era of digital currencies.

ANALISIS FAKTOR - FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI VOLUME EKSPOR KAKAO DI INDONESIA 2015 – 2019

Cocoa is one of the plantation commodities that has an important role in economic activities in Indonesia. Cocoa is also one of Indonesia's export commodities which is quite important as a foreign exchange earner besides oil and gas. Indonesia is the world's third largest cocoa producer and exporter after Ghana and Ivory Coast. The development of cocoa exports in 2015-2019 has a fairly volatile pattern. In 2015 the total export volume of cocoa was 105.15 thousand tons and in 2017 it increased by 270.17 thousand tons. The results of this study indicate that partially the US Dollar exchange rate variable has a negative and significant effect on the volume of cocoa exports in Indonesia 2015-2019. The price variable has a positive and significant effect on the volume of cocoa exports in Indonesia 2015-2019 and the variable amount of cocoa production has no effect on the volume of cocoa exports in Indonesia 2015-2019. Simultaneously the US Dollar exchange rate, price and amount of cocoa production have a significant effect on the volume of cocoa exports in Indonesia 2015-2019 and the variable amount of cocoa production has no effect on the volume of cocoa exports in Indonesia 2015-2019. This analysis shows that the variable that has the dominant influence on the volume of cocoa exports in Indonesia from 2015-2019 is the price variable.

A techno-economic investigation for utilizing solar energy in irrigation of palm trees in Saudi Arabia

This paper presents a techno-economic investigation for utilizing photovoltaic solar energy in water pumping applications for the irrigation of Palm trees in the Qassim region in Saudi Arabia. The Analysis has been done by applying four technical indicators and three economic indicators on a real farm of palm trees. The investigation took into account the varied water demand for palm trees over the years, meteorological data of the region, the characteristics of the borehole, and the local market prices of PV system components. The investigation has been done using two options of PV systems: grid-connected system and standalone system. The results showed the superiority of the grid-connected system in spite of the unfair price of energy exchange with the utility grid. The results achieved are the Levelled cost of energy, which is in the range from 0.013 to 0.019 $/kWh. The standardized cost of produced water is in the range from 0.011 to 0.013 $/m3, and the simple payback time is in the range from 9.65 to 12.22 years. The results are considered to encourage farmers in the region to convert to solar energy utilization.

ТЕОРЕТИЧНИЙ ТА ПРАКТИЧНИЙ ОГЛЯД ІНДЕКСІВ СПОЖИВЧИХ ЦІН У РЕГІОНАХ УКРАЇНИ (ЗА БЕРЕЗЕНЬ 2024)

The article provides a comprehensive examination of the Consumer Price Indexes (CPI) in various regions of Ukraine as of March 2024. It combines theoretical insights into the methodology of CPI calculation and the factors influencing it with a practical analysis of price dynamics across different regions. Theoretical aspects encompass the purpose of CPI as an economic indicator reflecting changes in the cost of a basket of goods and services consumed by the population. The study delves into various methods of CPI calculation, including price weighting, selection of the base period, and other technical aspects affecting the obtained indices. Attention is devoted to factors influencing price dynamics such as changes in exchange rates, price policies, and other economic and political factors. The practical part of the article focuses on analyzing the CPI dynamics in different regions of Ukraine for March 2024. This analysis allows for the identification and examination of key factors influencing price dynamics in different parts of the country. Different regions exhibit specific characteristics, which are taken into account during the analysis, including the level of economic development, production and consumption structure, sectoral specificity, demographic, and socio-cultural features. The CPI dynamics reflect the degree of influence of these factors on the price situation in each specific region. The article also highlights the analysis of potential consequences of price changes for the population and the economy as a whole. A high level of inflation can negatively affect the purchasing power of the population and the overall state of the economy. Therefore, timely monitoring and management of price dynamics in the regions are essential for ensuring stability and effective functioning of the economy. The general conclusion of the article aims to reflect the results of the CPI dynamics analysis in the regions of Ukraine for March 2024 and provide recommendations for managing the price situation in the country. The relevance of the study lies in the importance of ensuring economic stability and growth in the conditions of economic instability and uncertainty.

Risk factors identified from the company-union relationship: Evidence from the Mexican Stock Exchange

Purpose: To analyze the risk factors in the relationship between unions and companies listed in the Mexican Stock Exchange Price and Quotations Index. Methodology: The study employed a qualitative, cross-sectional, descriptive approach, utilizing content analysis techniques. Information contained in the Annual Reports of 20 companies listed in the Mexican Price and Quotation was examined.Results: Industrial sector companies have a higher number of unionized workers. However, some companies in the identified sectors do not report the percentage of workers who belong a union. Among the risk factors reported regarding the company-union relationship, strikes and legislative changes stand out. Implications: The companies under study have implemented risk management programs that not only help them identify risks in their relationships with unions but also document them in their annual reports, setting an example for other organizations to follow. Such practices both mitigate undesirable events and create opportunities for growth. Our results contribute to the knowledge of Enterprise Risk Management (ERM), including its phases, definitions, and a comprehensive inventory of risks associated with company-union relationships. This knowledge serves as a catalyst for the adoption of ERM practices across the Latin American region.Originality: This study highlights risk identification as a tool for crucial decision-making regarding company/Union relationship. The study is the one the first addressing risks by ERM between company and unions.

БИРЖЕВАЯ ТОРГОВЛЯ САХАРОМ В РОССИИ: СОВРЕМЕННОЕ СОСТОЯНИЕ И ВОЗМОЖНОСТИ ОБЕСПЕЧЕНИЯ МОНИТОРИНГА ВНУТРЕННИХ ЦЕН

In modern Russia, the role of organized trading, which includes exchange trading, is gradually increasing. As our research has shown, exchange trading in sugar in Russia is developing, as evidenced by the increase in exchange turnover of sales of this product and the expansion of exchange instruments used for trading. In addition, exchange trading can provide up-to-date information on domestic average market prices for commodities. A strong connection was established between average domestic Russian prices for sugar and price quotations for this product on the world’s largest commodity exchanges and on commodity exchanges within Russia. In the course of studying the cause-and-effect relationship between average domestic and average exchange prices for sugar in Russia, it was found that domestic prices are the reason for the establishment of certain exchange prices for sugar and the domestic and exchange Russian prices are very close in size. This allowed us to conclude that it is possible to use exchange trade prices for sugar as an operational information source on the size of domestic prices, which can be used for state regulation of the market and for making business decisions directly by business entities.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET EFFICIENCY: CASE STUDY ON INDONESIA

This research examines the foreign exchange market efficiency in Indonesia using currency pairs chosen based on Indonesia’s largest international trading partner by volume, namely, China, United States and Japan. Consequently, the currency pairs used for this research are IDR/USD, IDR/JPY, IDR/CNY. The test utilizes the Augmented Dickey Fuller procedure in determining whether the datasets contain any unit roots in which case foreign exchange price movements follow a random walk movement (non-stationary), or not (stationary). The research findings show that historical data for all three currencies follow a random walk process or the market is weak-form efficient.