Commodity Exchange Research Articles

Chewing gum in the life world of soviet children in the 1960s-80s (reconstruction based on modern memories)

Among the few niches left by isolated but fundamental studies of chewing gum in the everyday life of Soviet children (works by K. A. Bogdanov, V. V. Golovin, A.V. Kudryashev), ideas about the specific role of this confectionery product, depending on the child’s place of residence, his gender and social environment, deserve special attention. An attempt to clarify the boundaries of the application of the fetishization construct to the interpretation of the role of chewing gum in the life world of a Soviet child was carried out on the basis of 50 semi-structured narrative-oriented interviews conducted in Kostroma, Krasnodar, Moscow, Ryazan in 2020, and memoirs about childhood in the USSR by six authors. The results of the study confirm the exceptional subjective significance of chewing gum, its functioning as an object of commodity exchange. At the same time, there is a more widespread practice of gratuitous donation of this confectionery by children. Adventurous practices of criminal acquisition of delicacies in the 1960s-70s were localized in the cities becoming the centers of international tourism and seaports of the USSR; in Moscow, teenage boys who already had a marginal status were involved in these practices. A significant part of Moscow schoolchildren distanced themselves from adventurous entrepreneurship out of conviction or out of fear. For children who lived far from the territories covered by international communications, fetishization was significantly limited by the unavailability of chewing gum - the lack of children’s ability to purchase it independently.

Bogotá’s Librería Colombiana: Between Rural Haciendas and a Global World of Books, 1880s-1900s

This article uses the case of the bookstore Librería Colombiana and the broad investment portfolio of their owners—the partnership Camacho Roldán & Tamayo—to show how networks of commodity exchange shaped Bogotá’s space during the late nineteenth century and its articulation to the rural and the global. I examine the combined speculative investments of the partnership in books, cows, and land to explain how they turned Librería Colombiana into a landmark in the city and benefited from the credit it yielded to further their social standing and economic power. By siphoning off capital from their hacienda to buy foreign books and urban land during the whirlwind of speculation spurred by the urban renovations processes, Camacho Roldán & Tamayo helped connect Bogotá to a global world of books, altering social and spatial relations, and reinforcing the city’s domination over its hinterland.

Correlations of structural shocks, dynamic responses of output and inflation to commodities price shocks and monetary union in WAMZ

PurposeThis paper examines correlations of the underlying structural shocks and the degree of synchronization in the impulse responses of output, inflation and trade to a one standard deviation shock to non-oil commodities price index and exchange rates within the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) countries from 1990q1 to 2020q1.Design/methodology/approachThis paper uses the structural vector autoregressive model to isolate the underlying structural shocks and compares them with the West African Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries.FindingsFindings from the study suggest that correlations of underlying structural shocks are more profound in the WAEMU than in the WAMZ. Impulse responses of output to price and exchange rate shocks are more symmetric in the WAEMU than in the WAMZ. However, impulse responses of inflation to price and exchange rate shocks are symmetric in the WAMZ than in the WAEMU and responses of trade in both sub-groups are not uniform.Practical implicationsThe paper concludes that the WAMZ does not constitute an Optimum Currency Area concerning the correlations of the structural shocks and output. However, it has achieved convergence in inflation and there are adequate adjustment mechanisms to shocks in the WAMZ than in the WAEMU. Therefore, the WAMZ may not suffer from joining the monetary union. Thus, economic Community of West African States may take steps to roll out the monetary union.Originality/valueThe paper examines correlations of the underlying structural shocks, impulse responses of output and inflation to shocks to commodities price and exchange rates in the WAMZ and compares them with the WAEMU.

Credit instruments to alleviate global food insecurity: focus on crop receipts

Abstract Global institutions have been looking for tools to alleviate food insecurity for years. COVID-19 and the conflict in Ukraine have exacerbated the situation, necessitating the mobilization of additional financial resources. This article focuses on financing instruments that can alleviate food insecurity by promoting financing in the pre-harvest phase, particularly crop receipts. Crop receipts recently attracted attention from international financial institutions, responding to inquiries from domestic policymakers about tools to increase access to credit for farmers. Crop receipts legislation has been enacted in Brazil, Ukraine, and Serbia, and several States are considering the enactment of such legislation. This article analyses the interaction of crop receipts with secured transactions and warehouse receipts legislation as well as regulatory frameworks applicable to banking, commodity exchanges, and capital markets. Guidance for those States contemplating enactment of crop receipts legislation is necessary to produce coherent secured transactions and warehouse receipts regimes and to forestall any approaches that might thwart their modernization along the lines of existing and emerging international standards. This article sheds light on the aspects of crop receipts finance for which guidance should be provided. It proposes that such guidance be included in the Agricultural Legal Financing Guide, which has been approved by the Governing Council of the International Institute for Unification of Private Law for the 2023–5 Work Programme.

Is China's new live hog futures market efficient? Evidence from an analysis of market quality, price discovery and hedging effectiveness

AbstractOn 8 January 2021, China's first live‐animal and live‐delivery futures product—in live hogs—was listed on the Dalian Commodity Exchange to serve as a risk management tool. We examine whether this newly established market exhibits good market quality and has realised its primary functions of price discovery and hedging. Our results suggest that the live hog futures market performs its price discovery function well and can hedge between 4% and 27% of the risk in the spot market, even though it is less actively traded, less liquid and more volatile than egg futures markets. To strengthen the hedging function of the live hog futures market, more effort—such as recruiting market makers and introducing night trading sessions—should be exerted to increase and smooth trading and stabilise volatility.

RATIONALITY ANALYSIS OF UNIVERSITY BRAND IMPLEMENTATION PATH

Brand is a socio-economic phenomenon. Brand is the product of the development of commodity economy to a certain stage. The generation of brand marks the maturity of the concept in the process of commodity exchange. To simply define a brand, it refers to a name, symbol, symbol or design of a seller or service, highlighting its competitive advantage and being distinguished from its competitors. In tandem with trends toward the popularization, marketization, and internationalization of higher education, brand marketing emerged in the field of higher education in the 1980s. In addition, with improvements in social welfare and new forms of public management, the commercialization and marketization of higher education have attracted increasing attention. The definition of the university brand can be described as that the university brand is the organic combination of representation information (name, noun, mark or design) and profound connotation (value, culture, personality and spirit), so that it is distinguished from competitors and recognized by consumers. Brand strategy is the overall planning and implementation of brand building and future development carried out by brand institutions under the guidance of brand strategic thinking based on their own conditions and analysis of the current situation and future trends of the external competitive environment. The essence of brand strategy is to shape the core expertise of the company, thereby ensuring its long-term development. Brand strategy is to establish a corporate strategy centered on building a strong brand. The core of raising brand building to the business strategy of a company lies in establishing a distinctive brand identity. Through the analysis of the actual situation and future trend of the external competitive environment, according to the guidance of its own conditions, the university conducts the overall planning and implementation of the future development of the university under the guidance of brand strategic thought. The C9 Alliance is the first university alliance between top universities in China. The alliance includes nine universities, including Peking University, Tsinghua University, Zhejiang University, Fudan University, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Nanjing University, University of Science and Technology of China, Xi'an Jiaotong University and Harbin Institute of Technology. Its development model, development path, talent training and other aspects are the target of many Chinese universities. Centering on the connotation of university brand, this paper analyzes the brand implementation road of "C9 Alliance" university to prove the rationality of the model observation point proposed in this paper, and on this basis, puts forward reference suggestions on the implementation path of ordinary undergraduate university brand.

Forecasting the Crude Oil prices for last four decades using deep learning approach

A lot of stress is observed on the forecasting of Crude Oil prices due to its liquid nature. Crude Oil is the most liquid commodity in almost all the commodity exchanges around the world. Of late, Artificial Neural Network and most specifically Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) have got a coveted space in the forecasting of asset prices. So, in this piece of research, we optimized the hyperparameters of LSTM and GRU using the well-known Particle Swarm Optimization method to predict the crude oil prices. Thereby, we did a comparative study on which method performed better with an optimized set of hyperparameters. We found that GRU had better performance than LSTM with Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 1.23 and an R-squared value of 99.39%.

COVID Impact On Indian Stock Market And Commodity

The COVID-19 pandemic that broke out in 2019 tremendously affected worldwide monetary markets, especially the products and stock markets in India. This study investigates the pandemic's perplexing repercussions on India's monetary framework. The review looks at the presentation, instability, and swings of the Indian stock market and commodity exchange all through the pandemic. It investigates the short-and long haul impacts of COVID-19 on stock records, individual values, and different products markets like energy, metals, and agribusiness. Everybody on the planet had various troubles because of the new Covid flare-up. One industry that was answerable for numerous worldwide shocks was finance, explicitly the stock and commodity markets. In the different areas of the planet, the two markets answered in special and shifted ways. This was brought about by various elements, including venture conduct, government assistance software engineers, and government activity. This paper dives further into that topic, including worldwide models and examination discoveries. This study researches how the Indian monetary markets answered the new emergency, taking a gander at how regulative choices, public activities, and financial backer mentalities impacted market elements. It likewise assesses how financial backer way of behaving, risk discernments, and exchanging designs are advancing in response to the vulnerability welcomed on by the pandemic.

Research on Price Discovery Function of China Pig Futures Market

On January 8, 2021, China Pig futures was listed on Dalian Commodity Exchange. Its listing has brought new tools for the risk management of hog prices, and has aroused widespread concern in the community. Research on the price discovery function of pig futures market is of great significance to the price risk management of pigs. This paper takes the China pig futures and spot market as the research object, selects the live pig futures and spot trading data of China from January 8, 2021 to September 28, 2023, and makes a preliminary effectiveness analysis on the price discovery function of the futures market through the trend of spot prices. Secondly, the data are tested for stationarity and cointegration, and then the VAR model is established. Through descriptive statistics, Granger causality test, impulse response and variance decomposition analysis, the price discovery function of China pig futures market is further analyzed. The results show that China pig futures market has played a certain price discovery function, but there is still room for improvement. Based on this, the relevant countermeasures and suggestions are put forward: to improve the relevant rules and systems of pig futures, to strengthen the standardization construction of the over-the-counter market of pigs, and to promote the enthusiasm of enterprises in the pig industry chain to participate in the futures market.

Hedging Efficiency of Energy Commodities between Indian and American Commodity Exchanges: Constant and Time-Varying Approaches

This research paper investigates the hedging efficiency between spot and future prices of crude oil and natural gas commodities in the energy category of the commodity market. The study focuses on two major commodity exchanges, the Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) and the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), which serve as the global benchmarking commodity market. Various econometric models have been incorporated to measure constant and time-varying hedging efficiency, we analyze the potential of futures contracts in mitigating price risks in these markets. The results indicate significant and consistent hedge ratios for both crude oil and natural gas in both the MCX and NYMEX markets. Moreover, the MGARCH model, which assesses hedging that varies over time, demonstrates the ability to adjust hedging positions based on market changes. Johansen's co-integration test endorses the presence of enduring connections between spot and future prices in both exchanges. Traders and investors can effectively use futures contracts to mitigate price risks in energy commodity markets, ensuring more dependable financial outcomes amid price fluctuations. Additionally, policymakers can utilize these research findings to promote the adoption of futures contracts, make well-informed choices, manage risks effectively, and enhance the overall efficiency and stability of energy commodity markets.

On the coexistence of on-exchange and OTC segments in commodity markets

The introduction of exchange trade in Russia is one of the ways to form a competitive commodity price that can act as a benchmark for the over-the-counter (OTC) segment. However, the exchange price may be subject to distortions, which may cause faults in antitrust law. Using the international commodity exchange experience, we aim to identify the risks of exchange trade arising amid the coexisting on-exchange and OTC segments. Methodologically, the paper relies on industrial organization theory and new institutional economics theory. In the research, the case study method was applied and data on the practices of commodity exchange introduced in different countries were used. As a result of the study, we have identified the risks of violating regulatory mechanisms in the market and of distorting effects on national markets, the risks in the areas of infrastructure restrictions and violations of antitrust laws, as well as the risks of price manipulation and distortion of exchange prices. We have proven that in the context of the coexistence of on-exchange and over-the-counter market segments, these risks can emerge even in cases of the successful development of global exchange trading.

Transmission of risk to China's construction industry due to international interest rate fluctuations

PurposeUnder the trend of global economic integration and the new context of stagflation, frequent fluctuations in international interest rates are exerting far-reaching impacts on the world economy. In this paper, the transmission mechanism of the impact of fluctuations in international interest rates (specifically, the American interest rate) on the bankruptcy risk in China's pillar industry, the construction industry (which is also sensitive to interest rates), is examined.Design/methodology/approachUsing an improved contingent claims analysis, the bankruptcy risk of enterprises is calculated in this paper. Additionally, an individual fixed-effects model is developed to investigate the mediating effects of international interest rates on the bankruptcy risk in the Chinese construction industry. The heterogeneity of subindustries in the industrial chain and the impact of China's energy consumption structure are also analysed in this paper.FindingsThe findings show that fluctuations in international interest rates, which affect the bankruptcy risk of China's construction industry, are mainly transmitted through two major pathways, namely, commodity price effects and exchange rate effects. In addition, the authors examine the important impact of China's energy consumption structure on risk transmission and assess the transmission and sharing of risks within the industrial chain.Originality/valueFirst, in the research field, the study of international interest rate risk is extended to domestic-oriented industries. Second, in terms of the research content, this paper is focused on China-specific issues, including the significant influence of China's energy consumption structure characteristics and the risk contagion (and risk sharing) as determined by the current development of the Chinese construction industry. Third, in terms of research methods a modified contingent claim analysis approach to bankruptcy risk indicators is adopted for this study, thus overcoming the problems of data frequency, market sentiment and financial data fraud, which are issues that are ignored by most relevant studies.

The Legal Nature of Futures Contracts in Commodity Exchanges in Jordanian Legislation

Legal jurisprudence tends to classify futures settlement contracts in commodity exchanges as speculative and betting contracts, based on cash settlement as one of the methods for settling futures contracts. Sometimes, these contracts are settled by the difference between the opening and closing prices over a specified period. Such classification is a limited perspective based on legal jurisprudence viewing futures contracts as ordinary sales contrary to reality. Settlement futures contracts in commodity exchanges are distinctive contracts, and their uniqueness is derived from the nature of the assets traded. These contracts involve essential commodities that play a crucial role in national economies. Moreover, they are subject to a specific legal framework that differs from the legal system governing ordinary contracts. These contracts serve various purposes beyond buying and selling for immediate consumption and trade. They function as financial instruments for investment and risk management, serving purposes beyond simple consumption and immediate trade. The essential distinction that has led to confusion about futures settlement contracts is the time gap between their formation and execution, unlike ordinary contracts that are immediately executed.In this study, we attempted to unveil the ambiguity surrounding futures settlement contracts in commodity exchanges by highlighting their true nature as financial instruments playing a significant role in national economies. This reality has given futures settlement contracts a distinct legal nature.

From the Old Financial to the New Commodity Economy in the Era of Stagflation

In the process of reducing the speculative financial adjustment that artificially stimulates consumer demand in developed countries, the importance of suppliers of physical goods (commodities) from developing countries will increase. I don’t believe in a complete dictate of commodities producers because they are dependent on counter deliveries of technologies from developed countries. However, relationships will be built between holders of physical goods, and technologies will change significantly. The pricing function for commodities will be transferred to several exchanges of developing countries which will be controlled by the commodity producers. Food consumers from Asian and African developing countries will be provided with the BRICS assistance in the creation and protection of reserve food warehouses on their territory as well as supporting their key exports through the creation of a network of new commodity exchanges. The article substantiates the need for independent formation of regional prices by the BRICS countries for the primary goods of their exports on their exchanges. I propose various combinations among the founding countries for new commodity exchanges for mineral fertilizers, oil, diamonds, titanium, vanadium, palladium, wheat, and uranium. Trading on all these new commodity exchanges must take place entirely in the currencies of the engaged countries.

Развитие логистической транспортной системы России в условиях санкций

Purpose: To conduct a review critical analysis of the current state of the domestic logistics transport system of Russia under sanctions as of August 2023 using statistical data and visualization of their dynamics. Methods: Methods of statistical analysis, logistics, systems theory, visualization, system approach, statistical and analytical data from open sources on the Internet have been used. Results: It is shown that the sanctions policy transforms the approach to the management of transportation processes when logistics chains are broken. The analysis of data on volumes and directions of railway transportation in Russia is carried out, trends, prospects and bottlenecks in the work of logistics transport systems are noted. Practical significance: The impact of anti-Russian Western sanctions on the structure and organization of the railway transportation process is assessed. Conclusions are formulated, among which it is indicated that the sustainable development of domestic logistics transport systems is a guarantee of uninterrupted and seamless provision of commodity exchange processes in the country.

Producers’ transition to alternative food practices in rural China: social mobilization and cultural reconstruction in the formation of alternative economies

The shift from the conventional agri-food system to alternative practices is a challenging transition for agricultural producers, yet surprisingly under-studied. Little research has examined the social and cultural processes in rural communities that mobilize producers and construct and sustain producer-driven alternative food networks (AFNs). For AFNs to go beyond just offering “alternative foods” or “alternative networks” and to be constructed as “alternative economies”, this transformation in the producer community is indispensable. This paper presents a case study of a rural cooperative in Shanxi, China. The discontent with both productivist agriculture and the social decay in communities motivated a group of women to engage in a decade-long process of social mobilization, cultural reconstruction, and learning by experimentation. Through this, they developed an alternative vision and successfully created a localized alternative socio-economic model, which I call “anti-productivism”. It prioritizes ecological sustainability, self-reliance, reciprocity, and cultural values over output maximization, productivity growth, commodity exchange, and monetary gains. This case contrasts sharply with the urban-initiated, consumer-driven AFNs studied in the China literature, which mostly just offered alternative foods but brought little change to the producer community. It shows that the alternative economy must be embedded in an alternative community united by strong social bonds and shared cultural values.

Soybean futures price prediction with dual-stage attention-based long short-term memory: a decomposition and extension approach

Accurately predicting soybean futures fluctuations can benefit various market participants such as farmers, policymakers, and speculators. This paper presents a novel approach for predicting soybean futures price that involves adding sequence decomposition and feature expansion to an Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model with dual-stage attention. Sequence decomposition is based on the Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN) method, a technique for extracting sequence patterns and eliminating noise. The technical indicators generated enrich the input features of the model. Dual-stage attention are finally employed to learn the spatio-temporal relationships between the input features and the target sequence. The research is founded on data related to soybean contract trading from the Dalian Commodity Exchange. The suggested method surpasses the comparison models and establishes a fresh benchmark for future price forecasting research in China’s agricultural futures market.

Nonlinear relationships in soybean commodities Pairs trading-test by deep reinforcement learning

The pairs trading strategy involves selecting two highly correlated securities to profit from mean reversion. However, the traditional simple threshold method is subjective, random, and ignores nonlinear relationships. This paper proposes a new cointegration deep reinforcement learning (DRL) pairs trading model applied to Dalian Commodity Exchange futures to capture nonlinear relationships and gain profits. The CA-DRL model outperforms other models in terms of efficiency and performance.

The Implementation and Refinement of Range Breakout Strategy in Chinese Commodity Market

The range breakout strategy is a momentum strategy that involves taking a long position in a security when its price exceeds a predetermined range and a short position when the price falls below the range. Previous research has indicated that this strategy is well-suited to the price volatility patterns observed in commodity markets. Considering the significant expansion and di-versification of China's commodity market in recent years, we decided to apply the range breakout strategy to China's commodity futures market and assess its feasibility and profitability. Our research utilized historical performance data from the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and Shanghai Future Exchange between September 1, 2012, and July 31, 2022, obtained from CSMR as our database. We focused on the top 27 most liquid commodity futures categories to construct our back-testing portfolio. Our approach centered around using volatility as the basis for entry signals in the range breakout strategy and signal weighting as a portfolio construction method. The results demonstrate that the range breakout strategy, based on volatility, is highly effective in China's commodity futures market. This research con-tributes to the enrichment of optimization strategies in China's Future Market. Furthermore, we explored the use of cross-commodity hedging and the Average True Range (ATR) indicator to further enhance the strategy. Although no practical improvements were discovered beyond the original strategy, this exploration offers valuable insights for future research.

A changepoint analysis of exchange rate and commodity price risks for Latin American stock markets

Focusing on countries whose economies are exposed to fluctuations in commodity prices and exchange rates, we study the vulnerability of these stock market returns to exchange rate and commodity price shocks using non-parametric structural break tests for volatility and dependence. The return distributions are modeled using a Copula-GARCH model incorporating the estimated changepoints and we measure risk-spillovers with the conditional Value-at-Risk. We find evidence for various changepoints at different points in time, implying changes in risk and spillovers. In particular, there is evidence of increased spillover risk after the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, as well as higher conditional risk following the Covid-19 outbreak.