Excess Liquidity Research Articles

Liquidity Surplus and Profitability: How Does Liquidity Affect Profitability prior to and during COVID-19? (Empirical Indonesian Banking Sector)

This study aims to analyse the liquidity and profitability of the banking sector before the COVID-19 pandemic and during the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, the focus of this research is also related to the effect of liquidity on profitability during the period prior to COVID-19 and during COVID-19. The research method used is quantitative, using secondary data, namely published financial reports from the banking industry. The total number of data observations used in this study is 132 banks. The problem formulation of this research includes: (i) How was the liquidity of the banking industry before the Covid-19 pandemic and during the Covid-19 pandemic?, (ii) How was the profitability of the banking industry before the Covid-19 pandemic and during the Covid-19 pandemic?, (iii) Does liquidity affect profitability in the pre-Covid-19 pandemic?, (iv) Does liquidity affect profitability during the Covid-19 pandemic?; (v) How is the comparison of the effect of liquidity on profitability between the period before the Covid-19 pandemic and during the Covid-19 pandemic?. The results of this study found that: (i) There is a significant difference in liquidity in the banking industry during the period before the Covid-19 pandemic and the Covid-19 pandemic, (ii) There is a significant difference in profitability in the banking industry before the Covid-19 pandemic and during the Covid-19 pandemic. During the Covid-19 pandemic, lending was constrained by the high risk of non-performing loans due to the decreased ability to pay from customers, (iii) In the period before the Covid-19 pandemic, the liquidity of the banking industry had no effect on the profitability of the banking industry, (iv) During the Covid-10 pandemic, the liquidity of the banking industry had a significant and negative effect on the profitability of the banking industry, (v) There is a difference between the impact of liquidity on the profitability of the banking industry in the pre-COVID-19 period and during COVID-19. This research implies that it is a benchmark for pre-researchers and practitioners affected by the banking sector's liquidity aspects. In addition, the novelty of this research is the object of research related to the analysis that compares the relationship between liquidity and profitability in the period before the Covid-19 pandemic and during the Covid-19 pandemic.

The impact of monetary policy during the legal regime of martial law on the Ukrainian labor market

The purpose of this research is to conduct an in-depth analysis of the monetary policy influence during the period of martial law on the state of the labor market and welfare of the population in Ukraine. The article examines the effects of military actions on the workforce, employment sectors, and briefly outlines the key actions taken by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) to stabilize the macroeconomic situation in the country, mitigate inflationary pressure, and counter capital outflows.Based on available statistical data and expert assessments of the labor market in Ukraine following the full-scale invasion, the effectiveness of monetary mechanisms, including the temporary shift from inflation targeting to exchange rate fixing, was analyzed. The conducted analysis confirmed that despite timely adaptive changes in monetary policy by the regulator, the effectiveness of the monetary transmission mechanism during wartime remains low. The decline in real production, reduced confidence in the national currency, and the initiation of government spending financed through monetary emission resulted in an excess liquidity situation in the economy, leading to diminished effectiveness of the monetary transmission mechanism. As a result, controlling inflation levels and inflation expectations during the period of martial law cannot be fully ensured by the National Bank of Ukraine.Moreover, the analysis of forced emigration dynamics during the Russian invasion also revealed that high uncertainty levels deter refugees from returning to Ukraine and incentivize them to spend earned income in host countries. Despite the unprecedented wave of emigration, the increase in private remittances from abroad remains marginal. Thus, a priority task for the government should be to develop strategies of financial and social incentives to encourage the return of the working population and facilitate Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction.
 JEL classіfіcatіon: E58, F24, G28, J21

Controlling Selenization Equilibrium Enables High-Quality Kesterite Absorbers for Efficient Solar Cells

Kesterite Cu2ZnSn(S, Se)4 is considered one of the most competitive photovoltaic materials due to its earth-abundant and nontoxic constituent elements, environmental friendliness, and high stability. However, the preparation of high-quality Kesterite absorbers for photovoltaics is still challenging for the uncontrollability and complexity of selenization reactions between metal element precursors and selenium. In this study, we propose a solid-liquid/solid-gas (solid precursor and liquid/vapor Se) synergistic reaction strategy to precisely control the selenization process. By pre-depositing excess liquid selenium, we provide the high chemical potential of selenium to facilitate the direct and rapid formation of the Kesterite phase. The further optimization of selenium condensation and subsequent volatilization enables the efficient removal of organic compounds and thus improves charge transport in the absorber film. As a result, we achieve high-performance Kesterite solar cells with total-area efficiency of 13.6% (certified at 13.44%) and 1.09 cm2-area efficiency of 12.0% (certified at 12.1%).

Policy to increase the maturity of household deposits in order to strengthen the resource base of Russian banks

The role of client funds and bank deposits of individuals, in particular, as a source of funding for Russian banks in the context of tightening sanctions, is significantly increasing. At the same time, it is necessary to pay special attention to increasing the stability and urgency of the resource base of banks, since in the current conditions banks are often under the threat of a massive withdrawal of money, and the urgency of deposits remains uncertain. This forces banks to maintain excess liquidity reserves, reducing investment lending to the real sector of the economy. The article substantiates a set of measures aimed at increasing the urgency and stability of retail deposits.

Simulation-Based Models of Multi-Tier Financial Supply Chain Management Problem: Application in the Pharmacy Sector

A crucial role in the continuation of economic activities is played by the financing of services and production in supply chains. A key element of optimizing the financial flow of these complex networks is to pay attention to the financial aspects of these complex networks since they are becoming more and more complex and expanding. This study aims to investigate the supply chain of a pharmaceutical company’s holding company and its subsidiaries while using internal resource valuation to develop a new strategy for financing the company’s operations. There is a process of money circulation through the chain, which consists of passing through two treasuries (primary and secondary), which provide liquidity to compensate the deficits of some institutions with the excess liquidity of other institutions. In this article, we present three simulation-based models based on a case study conducted at Shafa Darou Investment Company in Tehran-Iran, a leading pharmaceutical investment company in the country, to examine the impact of implementing this idea in the real world. Considering the study’s results, it has been shown that the supply chain as a whole has improved in terms of its working capital. Using a set of local treasuries is generally associated with reducing risks and a greater level of stability when relying on the excess liquidity of chain members provided that financial independence from external institutions, such as banks, is maintained. In addition, if the members’ excess liquidity is deposited in a set of local treasuries rather than a bank, the profit and internal financial flow within the chain will be circulated throughout the chain, and more added value will be generated.

Characteristics of hydraulic fracture penetration behavior in tight oil with multi-layer reservoirs

The tight oil reservoirs of Fuyang and Gaotaizi in the Daqing Oilfield exhibit characteristics such as thin layers and distributed barriers, which pose challenges for maintaining drilling accuracy within the desired geological sweet spot. Hydraulic fracturing has emerged as the optimal method to connect production wells with target layers effectively. Understanding the behavior of hydraulic fracture propagation in multiple thin layers with significant differences in mechanical properties is crucial for assessing the extent of effective drainage. In this study, a finite element numerical simulation model incorporating cohesive elements is employed to investigate and quantify the effects of stress differences and rock mechanical parameters on fracture penetration. The results indicate that the stress difference between the reservoir and barrier layers plays a key role in controlling hydraulic fracture penetration and height. Moreover, the flow rate and viscosity of the fracturing fluid have a noticeable impact on fracture progression. Hydraulic fractures tend to propagate along the interface of layers with low flow rate and fluid viscosity, thereby hampering the penetration performance in those layers. To achieve a comparable penetrated fracture length in low permeability reservoirs, it is necessary to increase the volume of fracturing fluid in high permeability reservoirs. Furthermore, the barriers layers, which possess relatively weaker mechanical properties, can constrain the width development of hydraulic fractures. This limitation may result in the risk of excessive liquid without sufficient proppant (commonly known as “over liquid but no sand”). Therefore, appropriate measures should be implemented to increase the net pressure and avoid encountering this complex situation.

A bibliometric analysis of understanding absorbent food for the development of sustainable packaging

Absorbent packaging is a form of food packaging designed to absorb excess liquid and moisture that may be present in food products. This article provides a bibliometric analysis of the literature on food-absorbent packaging. The analysis was conducted using the Scopus database, and 121 documents were selected for the study. According to the study’s findings, the number of publications on food absorbent packaging has grown over time. As productive countries, the majority of the investigations were undertaken in China, the United States, and Brazil. The study also revealed that the most popular absorbent food packaging research topics are developing new materials, optimizing packaging performance, and evaluating the effectiveness of absorbent packaging in preserving food quality. In addition, a number of emerging research topics were identified, such as the application of nanotechnology to absorbent packaging and the development of biodegradable absorbent materials. This bibliometric analysis sheds light on the current state of absorbent food packaging research and identifies potential areas for future study. Researchers, food industry professionals, and policymakers can use the findings of this study to develop and implement more effective and environmentally favorable food packaging solutions.

EXAMINING THE CAUSALITY OF CAPITAL TOWARDS LIQUIDITY CREATION BY INVOLVING THE CONTRIBUTION OF EFFECTIVE MANAGERIAL ABILITY

This study has a general purpose to extend a theoretical approach as an attempt to overcome the research inconsistency regarding the influence of capital in banking companies towards the creation of liquidity. In addition, the fact has shown that there was a problem of excess liquidity in Indonesian banks since 1997. To achieve the purpose, the effort is to offer a new concept or proposition derived from the main theory synthesis approach, namely the theory of efficiency and the theory of effectiveness. This study is a causality type observing the sample of conventional commercial banks, which are ranked among the ten banks and have the largest assets in Indonesia as of December 31, 2022. This study succeeded in finding effective managerial ability as a synthesis concept combining both theories. Furthermore, the finding from the research model suggests that effective managerial ability in granting credit is a mediator factor in the relationship between bank capital and the creation of liquidity. This study starts from the existence of various contradictions in the results of empirical research on the causality effect of bank capital on the creation of liquidity. The result shows the significant role of effective managerial ability in explaining the inconclusive findings of previous studies. It confirms that when the effective managerial ability in providing credit is higher, a manager could arrange the capital to create higher liquidity and generate greater revenue. The other results report that the creation of liquidity is influenced positively by the risk of credit and influenced negatively by the volatility of earning and reserve requirements.

Assessment of algerian interbank interest rate through extreme value theory

This article tries to examine the evolution of interest rates in the Algerian interbank money market which focuses on the behavior of extreme. Empirical results illustrate that data are not distributed normally, exhibiting that their distribution is fat tails. Applying the GEV method on the maxima shows that the distribution law of the maxima changes over time due to the non-stationary data. Subsequent investigations suggest two subsample periods. The first period characterized by a deterioration of the liquidity of Algerian banks following the collapse of oil prices (1997-2000), the distribution law obtained is the law of Fréchet, but during the period characterized by an excess liquidity of the banks resulted from the increase in oil prices (2002-2013), the distribution law found is that of Weibull which is right bounded.

Alternatif Untuk Menjaga Kelancaran Likuiditas Dalam Perbankan Syariah

Liquidity management is a very complex problem in bank operations. The main cause of bank bankruptcy, both large and small, is not due to failure in financing which results in losses, but rather due to the inability of banks to manage liquidity. This article discusses liquidity management by utilizing the Bank Indonesia Sharia System (SBIS) and PUAS transactions. However, that the two methods have not fully resolved the actual problems faced by Islamic banking in allocating unused funds due to excess liquidity. This study was conducted through a literature search covering various solutions and alternatives to overcome the obstacles faced by Islamic banking in managing its liquidity. To support this study, secondary data was used obtained from Islamic Banking Statistics and the Financial Services Authority. Based on this study, it means that the central bank needs to develop the existing instruments in the PUAS provided by Bank Indonesia as the monetary authority. It is hoped that the liquidity problems faced by Islamic banking can be overcome more effectively.

How to understand high global food price? Using SHAP to interpret machine learning algorithm.

The global food prices have surged to historical highs, and there is no consensus on the reasons behind this round of price increases in academia. Based on theoretical analysis, this study uses monthly data from January 2000 to May 2022 and machine learning models to examine the root causes of that period's global food price surge and global food security situation. The results show that: Firstly, the increase in the supply of US dollars and the rise in oil prices during pandemic are the two most important variables affecting food prices. The unlimited quantitative easing monetary policy of the US dollar is the primary factor driving the global food price surge, and the alternating impact of oil prices and excessive US dollar liquidity are key features of the surge. Secondly, in the context of the global food shortage, the impact of food production reduction and demand growth expectations on food prices will further increase. Thirdly, attention should be paid to potential agricultural import supply chain risks arising from international uncertainty factors such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has profoundly impacted the global agricultural supply chain, and crude oil and fertilizers have gradually become the main driving force behind the rise in food prices.

Economic Efficiency of Raspberry Production

The article discusses the importance of raspberries for human health. Berry culture is one of the most important products of human nutrition, which promotes the prevention of diseases, has healing properties. The nutritional, dietary properties of berries are largely determined by their chemical composition: Sugars, organic acids, vitamins and more. It is noted that for the analysis of the economic efficiency of raspberry production it is necessary to conduct an analysis of constant and variable production costs. Although this culture is very useful and economically profitable, it is not properly developed in Georgia, it is produced in small quantities. It has great potential and can fully meet the demand of the local market. Finally, we should mention that the production of fruits and berries, in particular raspberries, is of special importance for our country. First of all, it contains substances that are important for human health. In addition, it contains biologically active substances that have a positive effect. From an agricultural point of view, raspberry is a high-yielding crop, the price of which is systematically increasing. It is produced in small quantities in Georgia, it has great potential, it can successfully meet local demand and make the country less dependent on imports. Special attention should be paid to the issue of export. One of the reasons for this is insufficient knowledge of raspberry farmers, a large number of small gardens, it is necessary to unite them, as well as improve the quality of products, select appropriate varieties, and to find a certified agro-specialist. Among the agro-technological issues, protection of the raspberry plantation from pests is very important and noteworthy. At the same time, it is necessary to protect the raspberry culture from weeds as much as possible, to carry out proper and timely irrigation, especially with drip irrigation. It should also be taken into account that raspberries are a perishable product. If it is not delivered to the customer on time, it loses its appearance as a commodity. At the same time, it is difficult to communicate with local supermarkets. They require large quantities of uniform packaged products. Refrigerators are needed for sorting and sorting of products, which is beyond the reach of many farmers. It is also desirable to have a laboratory in Georgia that will confirm the environmental purity of raspberries with proper documentation. That is, the produced product must have a certificate that it is grown without poisonous chemicals. All entrepreneurs who want to import raspberries must take into account the marketing standards of the exporting country, which are different in every country - determining the quality of the produced raspberries, and packaging. Raspberries for export must be whole, undamaged, without any defects. It should not be diseased, rotten, or contaminated with foreign matter eg: soil, mud, chemical elements, or dust, nor should it look old-dried. All this makes its use as food undesirable. The presence of any pests or excess liquid on the product and in the packaging will create problems at the border. Based on the economic and medicinal properties of raspberry culture, it is necessary to create conditions for replacing imported goods with local, ecologically clean products. With the support of the state, it is possible to import this culture, which will be an additional inco. Keywords:- Raspberry, economic efficiency, yield, berries, limiting water capacity.

IoT Based Smart Disinfection Robot

In recent years, sanitization played a vital role in to fight against infectious diseases. That sanitizing by the human can lead to contamination and infecting the human. So manual cleaning is not a perfect method for the pandemic situation. So in our project, we develop a sanitizing robot. It contains HC-05 Bluetooth for wireless communication, the motor driver for controlling the wheels, DC pumping motor for spraying the sanitizing liquid from the sanitizer container to the floor, wiper for cleaning the excess liquid on the floor. Sprayer is attached in front of the robot and the wiper is attached to the back of the robot. These all processes are controlled by mobile using IoT technology. This method is very useful for the infectious and pandemic situation.

Experimental investigation of thermal behavior of overfilled sodium heat pipe

Operating limitations model of heat pipes are difficult to evaluate the effect of the charging amount of working fluid, which is one of the crucial factors in heat pipe performance of startup and maximum heat transfer. To reduce the knowledge gap on the effect of filling amount, the purpose of this paper is an investigation of the thermal behavior of excess liquid. Overfilled sodium heat pipe having about 260% filling ratio was fabricated and tested with the change of boundary and initial condition. Sodium heat pipe showed good isothermal characteristics that the temperature difference between evaporator and condenser reduced as the development of continuum flow until reaching operating limit condition. The characteristics of an overfilled heat pipe appear at power increased after the continuum flow fully developed to the condenser that sudden temperature rise about 100 °C in the overall heat pipe except the end region of the condenser where a continuous temperature about 50 °C drop occurs. Excess liquid moves toward the condenser end and forms the liquid pool and lessening the active condenser length which reduces the maximum heat transfer of heat pipe and induced the operating limitation. The results showed that this phenomenon only occurs at high heat flux conditions as sufficient vapor flow is required to allow excess liquid to propagate to the condenser and determined the operating limitation of overfilled sodium heat pipe that continuous temperature rises as the liquid propagates to the end of the condenser rather than the abrupt rising such as dry out. However, the operating limitations occur sudden dry-out of the evaporator similar to the conventional results of liquid metal heat pipe when the liquid propagation did not occur. Compared to the entertainment limit model, there was a significant difference in the dry-out point of the experimental results with excessive liquid propagation. It was confirmed that the horizontal operation of overfilled heat pipe was in good agreement with the prediction of capillary limit model within 22.6% of the maximum error.

Utilization of industrial wastes in Al2O3‐SiC‐SiO2‐C refractories: Characterization of erosion and corrosion resistance

AbstractIndustrial waste has a high potential for reuse in the production of refractories, which can significantly lower costs. The purpose of the research is to access the role of three types of recycled industrial wastes (ferro‐titanium slag [FTS], ferhro‐chromium slag [FCS], and ferro‐vanadium slag [FVS]) utilized as aggregate in the traditional Al2O3‐SiC‐SiO2‐C refractories (ASSC). Erosion and corrosion resistance characterization was performed to determine whether these industrial waste‐containing ASSC still perform better than traditional ASSC during service. Based on the results, incorporating FVS into the ASSC was not recommended, its corrosion resistance was significantly reduced due to the presence of excessive liquid phase. Nonetheless, FTS and FCS could be added as aggregate to the ASSC without affecting their performance. This necessity of the proper amount of liquid phase in ASSC was highlighted in this research since the parameters could alter its properties. Furthermore, the Ti(C,N) transformed from TiO2 in FTS via carbothermal reduction nitridation could effectively prevent further corrosion, and Cr2O3 derived from the decomposition of (Al,Cr)2O3 solid solution in FCS could play the same role during the corrosion process, both of which may be potential raw materials to be used in refractories.

Market Stabilisation Scheme and Management of Liquidity in the Period of Volatile Capital Inflows: The Indian Experience

India recorded large and exogenous capital inflow from the very beginning of this century. This made monetary and liquidity management increasingly complex and difficult in India. Independent monetary policy in the era of free and volatile capital flow became challenging. To deal with the problems of excess liquidity in the system, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in consultation with the Government of India (GOI) introduced Market Stabilisation Scheme (MSS) in April 2004 with the objective of impounding excess liquidity from the system. In this paper, we have attempted to examine whether MSS was effective as an instrument of sterilisation in absorbing excess liquidity from the system and enabled the RBI to manage the liquidity condition smoothly. This paper has found that MSS was an effective instrument of sterilisation that helped the RBI in managing liquidity conditions in the period of large and exogenous capital inflows. This paper has also found that MSS was even effective in injecting back liquidity into the system through unwinding of securities under MSS redemption and its buyback operations in the period of large capital outflows during the international financial crisis of 2008-09. This helped the large borrowing programmes of the government during 2009-10. The paper has estimated the cost of MSS operations and found it on the lower side considering the scale of operation of this scheme.

Banks as Liquidity Providers in the Interbank Market

Abstract The paper analyzes structural differences in banks' ability and willingness to supply liquidity in the interbank market given the existing prudential regulation using a partial equilibrium model. The results show differences in the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) effectiveness for two types of banks' business models. First, for the more traditional one (with structural liquidity surplus), the LCR measure enables banks to lend more in the interbank market (by letting them subtract possible cash inflows from the expected outflows under a liquidity stress scenario) but at the cost of allowing them to maintain lower default limits (thresholds on the maximum liquidity shock the banks can withstand without entering default). Second, banks with structural liquidity deficits that need other funding sources than retail deposits, like subsidiaries that receive finance from their parent banks, face tighter requirements on high-quality liquid assets, keep higher default limits and lend less in the interbank market. For this business model, often seen in emerging markets, including Romania, the LCR measure fosters banks' resilience to liquidity shocks. However, this LCR functionality might encourage them to overlook contagion risk from their parent and parent banks' economies, especially under favorable financial conditions. Prudential authorities should complement the LCR measure with other instruments (like liquidity stress test) that better assess banks' liquidity risk due to maturity mismatch. Banks' liquidity risk management can partially mitigate the differences in LCR effectiveness through precautionary holdings of additional liquidity buffers. Banks with higher risk aversion prefer maintaining a higher no-penalty limit (the maximum liquidity shock the bank can accommodate without a penalty fee) and an increased default threshold and are less willing to lend in the interbank market.

Australian housing markets, the COVID-19 pandemic and black swan events

PurposeThis study aims to examine the impact of lending liquidity on house prices especially during black swan events such as the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–08 and COVID-19. Homeownership is an important goal for many, and house prices are a significant driver of household wealth and the wider economy. This study argues that excessive liquidity from central banks may be driving house price increases, despite negative changes to fundamental drivers. This study contributes to the literature by examining lending liquidity as a driver of house prices and evaluating the efficacy of fiscal policies aimed at boosting liquidity during black swan events.Design/methodology/approachThis study aims to examine the impact of quantitative easing on Australian house prices during back swan events using data from 2004 to 2021. All macroeconomic and financial data are freely available from official sources such as the Australian Bureau of Statistics and the nation's Central Bank. Methodology wise, given the problematic nature of the data such as a mixed order of integration and the possibility of cointegration among some of the I(1) variables, the auto-regressive distributed lag model was selected given its flexibility and relative lack of assumptions.FindingsThe Australian housing market continued to perform well during the COVID-19 pandemic, with the house price index reaching an unprecedented high towards the end of 2021. Research using data from 2004 to 2021 found a consistent positive relationship between house prices and housing finance, as well as population growth and the value of work commenced on residential properties. Other traditional drivers such as the unemployment rate, economic activity, stock prices and income levels were found to be less significant. This study suggests that quantitative easing implemented during the pandemic played a significant role in the housing market's performance.Originality/valueGiven the severity of COVID-19, policymakers have responded with fiscal and monetary measures that are unprecedented in scale and scope. The full implications of these responses are yet to be completely understood. In Australia, the policy interest rate was reduced to a historic low of 0.1%. In the following periods house prices appreciated by over 20%. The efficacy of quantitative easing and associated fiscal policies aimed at boosting liquidity to mitigate the impact of black swan events such as the pandemic has yet to be tested empirically. This study aims to address that paucity in literature by providing such evidence.

PENGARUH REVEALED COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE, LUAS LAHAN, NILAI TUKAR, INFLASI, DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI TERHADAP EKSPOR KOPI DI BERBAGAI NEGARA

The purpose of this study is to determine how the influence of revealed comparative advantage, land area, exchange rate and economic growth on coffee exports of 4 world countries in 2010-2020. This study used a quantitative research approach. The results of the study said that each variable, namely revealed comparative advantage, land area, exchange rate and economic growth on coffee exports of 4 world countries in 2010-2020 had a significant influence. With an expansion in land area, it can increase the amount of coffee that can be harvested and produced so that it can affect a country's export performance. The occurrence of exchange rates cannot be separated from the deappreciation or appreciation of each exchange rate in each country. With a decrease in the exchange rate, it can affect community or government activities in carrying out activities in the form of exports. The value of coffee exports we see the superiority of the commodity by measuring its comparative index owned by the country, it will be compared. Economic growth can be determined due to an increase in goods and services produced by a country. So that the demand for certain goods increases and will affect the exports of a particular country. Inflation can occur due to high public consumption, excess market liquidity that triggers speculation and distribution of goods that are not smooth.

Monetary policy transmission through banks when liquidity is abundant but unevenly distributed

We study how the distribution of excess liquidity amongst banks alters the transmission of policy rate hikes to bank interest rates. Using a difference-in-difference approach, we measure the difference in the pricing behavior of the 19 euro-area banking systems depending on their excess liquidity holdings when the European Central Bank’s Deposit Facility Rate (DFR) increases. According to our estimations, every 100 bp increase in the DFR, banking systems holding one additional standard deviation of excess liquidity apply a 1.9 bp higher interest rate on new checking accounts and between 3.2 and 6.8 bp lower interest rates on new loans.