Excessive Warming Research Articles

Threshold temperatures for performance and survival of American lobster larvae: A review of current knowledge and implications to modeling impacts of climate change

Warming generally improves performance of life processes such as moulting and growth in ectotherms, but excessive warming can reduce performance and cause death, which in turn affects their demography. Previous studies of American lobster, Homarus americanus, have considered warming impacts on benthic adults, but little attention has been paid to performance of planktonic larvae at extremely high temperatures. Water column temperatures are expected to increase faster than bottom temperatures, so warming may compromise physiological performance of larvae sooner than that of adults. It is thus important to identify stressful and lethal temperatures for lobster larvae, and include these when estimating climate change impacts. Previous studies that observed survival, development, moulting, growth, and physiological performance of lobster larvae at extreme temperatures were reviewed. Mortality following short-term exposure to 28–36°C from minutes to hours in duration has been reported, but more ecologically-relevant longer-term high-temperature exposures lasting days or weeks have rarely been tested for larvae of this species. Sub-lethal indicators of stress such as irregular heartbeat were reported in short- and long-term exposures between 20 and 26°C, suggesting that perhaps extended exposure to these temperatures could be lethal. Over the next 10–50 years, larvae may experience temperatures up to 30°C, which could negatively impact lobster populations if these temperatures are indeed stressful or lethal to them. Knowledge gaps identified highlight the need for further research into tolerance of lobster larvae to high temperatures.

Excess warming of a Central European lake driven by solar brightening

Recent trends in summer surface temperatures of many lakes exceed the corresponding air temperature trends. This disagrees with expectations from lake surface heat budgets, which predict that lake surface temperatures should increase by 75–90% of the increase in air temperatures. Here we investigate the causes for this excess warming for Lower Lake Zurich, a representative deep and stratified Central European lake, by a combined data analysis and modeling approach. Lake temperatures are simulated using a one-dimensional vertical model driven by 33 years of homogenized meteorological data. The model is calibrated and validated using an equally long time series of monthly water temperature profiles. The effects of individual forcing parameters are investigated by scenarios where the trends of single variables are retained while those of all other forcing variables are removed. The results show that ∼60% of the observed warming of spring and summer lake surface temperatures were caused by increased air temperature and ∼40% by increased solar radiation. The effects of the trends of all other forcing variables were small. Following projections of climate models, the increasing trends in solar radiation, and consequently the excess warming of lake surface temperatures, are not likely to continue in the future.

Selective responses of benthic foraminifera to thermal pollution

Persistent thermohaline pollution at a site along the northern coast of Israel, due to power and desalination plants, is used as a natural laboratory to evaluate the effects of rising temperature and salinity levels on benthic foraminifera living in shallow hard-bottom habitats. Biomonitoring of the disturbed area and a control station shows that elevated temperature is a more significant stressor compared to salinity, thus causing a decrease in abundance and richness.Critical temperature thresholds were observed at 30 and 35°C, the latter representing the most thermally tolerant species in the studied area Pararotalia calcariformata, which is the only symbiont-bearing species observed within the core of the heated area.Common species of the shallow hard-bottom habitats including several Lessepsian invaders are almost absent in the most exposed site indicating that excess warming will likely impede the survival of these species that currently benefit from the ongoing warming of the Eastern Mediterranean.

North American rainfall and temperature prediction response to the diversity of ENSO

Research has shown that there is significant diversity in the location of the maximum sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) associated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In one extreme, warm SSTA peak near the South American coast (often referred to as Eastern Pacific of EP El Nino), and at the other extreme, warm SSTA peak in the central Pacific (Central Pacific or CP El Nino). Due to the differing tropical Pacific SSTA and precipitation structure, there are differing extratropical responses, particularly over North America. Recent work involving the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) system for intra-seasonal to inter-annual prediction on prediction of the differences between El Nino events found excess warming in the eastern Pacific during CP El Nino events. This manuscript investigates the ensemble and observational agreement of the NMME system when forecasting the North American response to the diversity of ENSO, focusing on regional land-based 2-meter temperature and precipitation. NMME forecasts of North American precipitation and T2m agree with observations more often during EP events. Ensemble agreement of NMME forecasts is regional. For instance, ensemble agreement in Southeast North America demonstrates a strong connection to NINO3 precipitation and SSTA amplitude during warm ENSO events. Ensemble agreement in Northwest North America demonstrates a weak connection to NINO4 precipitation and SSTA amplitude during warm ENSO events. Still other regions do not show a strong connection between ensemble agreement and strength of warm ENSO events.

Interpreting observed northern hemisphere snow trends with large ensembles of climate simulations

Simulated variability and trends in Northern Hemisphere seasonal snow cover are analyzed in large ensembles of climate integrations of the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s Community Earth System Model. Two 40-member ensembles driven by historical radiative forcings are generated, one coupled to a dynamical ocean and the other driven by observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the period 1981–2010. The simulations reproduce many aspects of the observed climatology and variability of snow cover extent as characterized by the NOAA snow chart climate data record. Major features of the simulated snow water equivalent (SWE) also agree with observations (GlobSnow Northern Hemisphere SWE data record), although with a lesser degree of fidelity. Ensemble spread in the climate response quantifies the impact of natural climate variability in the presence and absence of coupling to the ocean. Both coupled and uncoupled ensembles indicate an overall decrease in springtime snow cover that is consistent with observations, although springtime trends in most climate realizations are weaker than observed. In the coupled ensemble, a tendency towards excessive warming in wintertime leads to a strong wintertime snow cover loss that is not found in observations. The wintertime warming bias and snow cover reduction trends are reduced in the uncoupled ensemble with observed SSTs. Natural climate variability generates widely different regional patterns of snow trends across realizations; these patterns are related in an intuitive way to temperature, precipitation and circulation trends in individual realizations. In particular, regional snow loss over North America in individual realizations is strongly influenced by North Pacific SST trends (manifested as Pacific Decadal Oscillation variability) and by sea level pressure trends in the North Pacific/North Atlantic sectors.

The climate change problem: is an LNG sectoral agreement part of the solution?

Recent reports and papers reveal the scope of the global climate change problem. The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics (2012) concludes the sum total of existing policies, in place or pledged, will very likely lead to warming in excess of 2°C. Additionally, a report from Vieweg et al (2012) concludes limiting global warming to below 2°C remains feasible if there is sufficient political ambition and action to introduce the required measures and policy changes now. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its Kyoto Protocol have failed to address this climate change problem; other ways to address the problem should be considered. One alternative way forward would be to break the climate change problem into different pieces, to contemplate a more decentralised arrangement in which particular issues are discussed and negotiated—a regime complex, for example. Indeed, the UNFCCC regime may actually constrain agreement on addressing the climate change problem, and a shift away from a top-down, Kyoto-style architecture for international climate action—to a more bottom-up approach, with smaller agreements between particular groups of states and sectors—could result. An international LNG sectoral agreement could form part of such an approach, or as a stand-alone agreement, because natural gas offers the most immediate method of transitioning to a lower-emissions global economy. After examining the UNFCC/Kyoto regime and other approaches to, and frameworks for, addressing the climate change problem, this peer-reviewed paper outlines the nature of sectoral agreements and their advantages, together with the rationale for, and benefits of, a sectoral agreement for the LNG industry.

No Threats of Global Warming for the Earth

Besides, no global cooling endangers the Earth as well, whether it will be a new ice age or any other form of abrupt temperature decrease on the globe. The problem lies in the fact, that the Earth is threatened by both of them at ones. Using a favorite expression of meteorologists - in some areas and at some times, extremely high or extremely low temperatures will prevail on the Earth, which, in principle, will provide the convincing effect of both excessive warming and radical overcooling of the planet.

FACTORS AFFECTING THE INCIDENCE OF 'RUSSET BROWNING' DISORDER IN 'COX'S ORANGE PIPPIN' APPLES

The ethylene antagonist, 1-methylcyclopropene, is used commercially as SmartFresh SM to retain firmness during shipping and storage of 'Cox's Orange Pippin' apples. However, the application of SmartFresh SM can result in an unsightly darkening of the russeted area in the stem cavity. The symptoms have been termed 'russet browning' disorder. Several studies have been undertaken over the last five seasons. In initial studies, fruit held in bins or cartons were treated with a full or reduced rate of SmartFresh SM to determine the effects of maturity at harvest, time after harvest, SmartFresh SM dose and pack type on the incidence of 'russet browning' after storage. Results indicated that the incidence of 'russet browning' could be reduced by reducing the rate of 1-methylcyclopropene without a significant loss in firmness retention, and that delaying treatment from three days after harvest to seven days after harvest increased the incidence. Pack type, i.e., treating fruit in bins or cartons, had no consistent effect on 'russet browning'. In subsequent studies, the incidence of 'russet browning' was decreased if fruit were treated with a reduced rate of 1-methylcyclopropene after cooling rather than before cooling, and the disorder could be avoided if fruit were treated after cooling and kept cold throughout storage. However, if fruit were given a warming treatment to simulate packing after treatment and short-term storage, the incidence of 'russet browning increased the earlier and longer the fruit were warmed after SmartFresh SM treatment. It is concluded that 'russet browning' disorder can be avoided if fruit are treated with a reduced rate of SmartFresh SM after packing and cooling and then keeping the fruit cold throughout subsequent storage. Avoiding excessive warming in the first two weeks after treatment is likely to be useful in reducing the incidence of 'russet browning', but the disorder could be totally avoided if treated fruit were held at storage temperatures for 6-8 weeks before packing or marketing.

Study of the effect of aqueous garlic extract (Allium sativum)<br>on some Salmonella serovars isolates

There has been a consistent increase in the search for alternative and efficient compound for food conservation, aiming a partial or total replacement of antimicrobial chemical additives. Garlic offers a promising alternative for food safety and bioconservation. Filter sterilized, aqueous garlic extract was tested for ability to inhibit the growth of some isolated Salmonella serovars. The fresh aqueous garlic extract (A.G.E., 57.1% (w/v), containing 324 µg/ml allicin) inhibited the growth and killed most of the tested Salmonella serovars. The effect of bacteriostatic concentration of A.G.E. on the growth of the different tested serovars, revealed a pattern of inhibition characterized by: (i) a transitory inhibition phase whose duration was proportional to A.G.E concentration (ii) a resumed growth phase which showed a lower rate of growth than in uninhibited controls, and (iii) an entry into stationary phase at a lower culture density. The minimal inhibitory concentration and minimum bactericidal concentrations were very close, garlic MIC range 10-12.5 mg/ml; MBC range 13-15 mg/ml. Garlic extract could be stored at 4°C because no detectable loss of antibacterial activity at this temperature over several days was observed. However, excessive warming, or longer periods at higher temperatures should be avoided. Among enzymatic activities followed with the API-ZYM system, significant changes during the inhibition phase were detected. These biochemical changes could represent an adaptative response towards the garlic stress.

Climate change mitigation strategies in fast-growing countries: The benefits of early action

This paper builds on the assumption that OECD countries are (or will soon be) taking actions to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. These actions, however, will not be sufficient to control global warming, unless developing countries also get involved in the cooperative effort to reduce GHG emissions. The paper investigates the best short-term strategies that emerging economies can adopt in reacting to OECD countries' mitigation effort, given the common long-term goal to prevent excessive warming without hampering economic growth. Results indicate that developing countries would incur substantial economic losses by following a myopic strategy that disregards climate in the short-run, and that their optimal investment behaviour is to anticipate the implementation of a climate policy by roughly 10 years. Investing in innovation ahead of time is also found to be advantageous. The degree of policy anticipation is shown to be important in determining the financial transfers of an international carbon market meant to provide incentives for the participation of developing countries. This is especially relevant for China, whose recent and foreseeable trends of investments in innovation are consistent with the adoption of domestic emission reduction obligations in 2030.

Polar amplification in a coupled climate model with locked albedo

In recent years, a substantial reduction of the sea ice in the Arctic has been observed. At the same time, the near-surface air in this region is warming at a rate almost twice as large as the global average—this phenomenon is known as the Arctic amplification. The role of the ice-albedo feedback for the Arctic amplification is still a matter of debate. Here the effect of the surface-albedo feedback (SAF) was studied using a coupled climate model CCSM3 from the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Experiments, where the SAF was suppressed by locking the surface albedo in the entire coupled model system, were conducted. The results reveal polar temperature amplification when this model, with suppressed albedo, is forced by a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 content. Comparisons with variable albedo experiments show that SAF amplifies the surface-temperature response in the Arctic area by about 33%, whereas the corresponding value for the global-mean surface temperature is about 15%. Even though SAF is an important process underlying excessive warming at high latitudes, the Arctic amplification is only 15% larger in the variable than in the locked-albedo experiments. It is found that an increase of water vapour and total cloud cover lead to a greenhouse effect, which is larger in the Arctic than at lower latitudes. This is expected to explain a part of the Arctic surface–air-temperature amplification.

Climate Change Mitigation Strategies in Fast-Growing Countries: The Benefits of Early Action

This paper builds on the assumption that OECD countries are (or will soon be) taking actions to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. These actions, however, will not be sufficient to control global warming, unless developing countries also get involved in the cooperative effort to reduce GHG emissions. This paper investigates the best short-term strategies that emerging economies can adopt in reacting to OECD countries’ mitigation effort, given the common long-term goal to prevent excessive warming without hampering economic growth. Results indicate that developing countries would incur substantial economic losses by following a myopic strategy that disregards climate in the short-run, and that their optimal investment behaviour is to anticipate the implementation of a climate policy by roughly 10 years. Investing in innovation ahead of time is also found to be advantageous. The degree of policy anticipation is shown to be important in determining the financial transfers of an international carbon market meant to provide incentives for the participation of developing countries. This is especially relevant for China, whose recent and foreseeable trends of investments in innovation are consistent with the adoption of domestic emission reduction obligations in 2030.

Do weak AR4 models bias projections of future climate changes over Australia?

Regional climate projections using climate models commonly use an “all-model” ensemble based on data sets such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) 4th Assessment (AR4). Some regional assessments have omitted models based on specific criteria. We use a criteria based on the capacity of climate models to simulate the observed probability density function calculated using daily data, model-by-model and region-by-region for each of the AR4 models over Australia. We demonstrate that by omitting those climate models with relatively weak skill in simulating the observed probability density functions of maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation, different regional projections are obtained. Differences include: larger increases in the mean maximum and mean minimum temperatures, but smaller increases in the annual maximum and minimum temperatures. There is little impact on mean precipitation but the better models simulate a larger increase in the annual rainfall event combined with a larger decrease in the number of rain days. The weaker models bias the amount of mean warming towards lower increases, bias annual maximum temperatures to excessive warming and bias precipitation such that the amount of the annual rainfall event is under-estimated. We suggest that omitting weak models from regional scale estimates of future climate change helps clarify the nature and scale of the projected impacts of global warming.

Detecting urbanization effects on surface and subsurface thermal environment — A case study of Osaka

Tremendous efforts have been devoted to improve our understanding of the anthropogenic effects on the atmospheric temperature change. In comparison, little has been done in the study of the human impacts on the subsurface thermal environment. The objective of this study is to analyze surface air temperature records and borehole subsurface temperature records for a better understanding of the urban heat island effects across the ground surface. The annual surface air temperature time series from six meteorological stations and six deep borehole temperature profiles of high qualities show that Osaka has been undergoing excess warming since late 19th century. The mean warming rate in Osaka surface air temperature is about 2.0 °C/100a over the period from 1883 to 2006, at least half of which can be attributed to the urban heat island effects. However, this surface air temperature warming is not as strong as the ground warming recorded in the subsurface temperature profiles. The surface temperature anomaly from the Osaka meteorological record can only account for part of the temperature anomaly recorded in the borehole temperature profiles. Surface air temperature is conventionally measured around 1.5 m above the ground; whereas borehole temperatures are measured from rocks in the subsurface. Heat conduction in the subsurface is much less efficient than the heat convection of the air above the ground surface. Therefore, the anthropogenic thermal impacts on the subsurface can be more persistent and profound than the impacts on the atmosphere. This study suggests that the surface air temperature records alone might underestimate the full extent of urban heat island effects on the subsurface environment.

Assessment of surface air temperature over the Arctic Ocean in reanalysis and IPCC AR4 model simulations with IABP/POLES observations

The surface air temperature (SAT) over the Arctic Ocean in reanalyses and global climate model simulations was assessed using the International Arctic Buoy Programme/Polar Exchange at the Sea Surface (IABP/POLES) observations for the period 1979–1999. The reanalyses, including the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis II (NCEP2) and European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecast 40‐year Reanalysis (ERA40), show encouraging agreement with the IABP/POLES observations, although some spatiotemporal discrepancies are noteworthy. The reanalyses have warm annual mean biases and underestimate the observed interannual SAT variability in summer. Additionally, NCEP2 shows an excessive warming trend. Most model simulations (coordinated by the International Panel on Climate Change for its Fourth Assessment Report) reproduce the annual mean, seasonal cycle, and trend of the observed SAT reasonably well, particularly the multi‐model ensemble mean. However, large discrepancies are found. Some models have the annual mean SAT biases far exceeding the standard deviation of the observed interannul SAT variability and the across‐model standard deviation. Spatially, the largest inter‐model variance of the annual mean SAT is found over the North Pole, Greenland Sea, Barents Sea and Baffin Bay. Seasonally, a large spread of the simulated SAT among the models is found in winter. The models show interannual variability and decadal trend of various amplitudes, and can not capture the observed dominant SAT mode variability and cooling trend in winter. Further discussions of the possible attributions to the identified SAT errors for some models suggest that the model's performance in the sea ice simulation is an important factor.

Seasonal nitrate levels in the soil solution of an organic pasture managed for nature conservation

Extensive management of pastures is considered as an option to enhance nature conservation in agricultural landscapes. Partial reduction of the grazing frequency from four to two rotations and discontinuing the tending of sod and sward have been tested for extensive management of a mixed pasture at the Nova Scotia College of Agriculture in Truro since 2004. It is not well known how extensification affects the N cycle of organic pastures without mineral fertilizer or manure applications. Moisture and temperature of the topsoil and nitrate content of the leachate extracted with ceramic suction cups at 0.5 m depth were monitored prior to grazing and during sward regrowth in the first and second rotation in spring of 2005 and 2006. In each year, more than 75 % of all samples contained less than 2.5 mg NO3-N L-1. A significant seasonal nitrate dynamic suggests that plant N uptake reduces nitrate leaching in the first rotation, while soil biological activity increases N supply due to soil warming in excess of plant uptake, thus raising the nitrate level in the second rotation. Extensification significantly reduced soil temperature with a concomitant albeit small decrease of nitrate levels in the soil leachate. The pasture cycled nitrogen very tightly with little room for leakages as a result of imposed treatments during the spring season. Key words: Pasture, organic, temperature, nitrogen, leaching

Spatial structures in the heat budget of the Antarctic atmospheric boundary layer

Abstract. Output from the regional climate model RACMO2/ANT is used to calculate the heat budget of the Antarctic atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). The main feature of the wintertime Antarctic ABL is a persistent temperature deficit compared to the free atmosphere. The magnitude of this deficit is controlled by the heat budget. During winter, transport of heat towards the surface by turbulence and net longwave emission are the primary ABL cooling terms. These processes show horizontal spatial variability only on continental scales. Vertical and horizontal, i.e. along-slope, advection of heat are the main warming terms. Over regions with convex ice sheet topography, i.e. domes and ridges, warming by downward vertical advection is enhanced due to divergence of the ABL wind field. Horizontal advection balances excess warming caused by vertical advection, hence the temperature deficit in the ABL weakens over domes and ridges along the prevailing katabatic wind. Conversely, vertical advection is reduced in regions with concave topography, i.e. valleys, where the ABL temperature deficit enlarges along the katabatic wind. Along the coast, horizontal and vertical advection is governed by the inability of the large-scale circulation to adapt to small scale topographic features. Meso-scale topographic structures have thus a strong impact on the ABL winter temperature, besides latitude and surface elevation. During summer, this mechanism is much weaker, and the horizontal variability of ABL temperatures is smaller.

Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in the IPCC Ensemble of Global Coupled Model Simulations

Abstract Temperature and precipitation extremes and their potential future changes are evaluated in an ensemble of global coupled climate models participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) diagnostic exercise for the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Climate extremes are expressed in terms of 20-yr return values of annual extremes of near-surface temperature and 24-h precipitation amounts. The simulated changes in extremes are documented for years 2046–65 and 2081–2100 relative to 1981–2000 in experiments with the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B1, A1B, and A2 emission scenarios. Overall, the climate models simulate present-day warm extremes reasonably well on the global scale, as compared to estimates from reanalyses. The model discrepancies in simulating cold extremes are generally larger than those for warm extremes, especially in sea ice–covered areas. Simulated present-day precipitation extremes are plausible in the extratropics, but uncertainties in extreme precipitation in the Tropics are very large, both in the models and the available observationally based datasets. Changes in warm extremes generally follow changes in the mean summertime temperature. Cold extremes warm faster than warm extremes by about 30%–40%, globally averaged. The excessive warming of cold extremes is generally confined to regions where snow and sea ice retreat with global warming. With the exception of northern polar latitudes, relative changes in the intensity of precipitation extremes generally exceed relative changes in annual mean precipitation, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions. Consistent with the increased intensity of precipitation extremes, waiting times for late-twentieth-century extreme precipitation events are reduced almost everywhere, with the exception of a few subtropical regions. The multimodel multiscenario consensus on the projected change in the globally averaged 20-yr return values of annual extremes of 24-h precipitation amounts is that there will be an increase of about 6% with each kelvin of global warming, with the bulk of models simulating values in the range of 4%–10% K−1. The very large intermodel disagreements in the Tropics suggest that some physical processes associated with extreme precipitation are not well represented in models. This reduces confidence in the projected changes in extreme precipitation.

Triassic–Jurassic boundary events inferred from integrated stratigraphy of the Csővár section, Hungary

Processes and causes of biotic and environmental change at the Triassic–Jurassic transition remain controversial, partly because of a scarcity of Triassic–Jurassic boundary sections studied in detail. Continuous marine strata spanning the boundary are exposed at Csővár, Hungary, where new integrated stratigraphic data were obtained from multidisciplinary investigations to help reconstruct the end-Triassic and Early Jurassic events. Boundary strata are predominantly slope to basinal carbonates deposited in a periplatform basin. The position of the system boundary is constrained by radiolarian, foraminiferan, conodont and ammonoid biostratigraphy. Pronounced radiolarian turnover is observed between assemblages assigned to the Late Rhaetian Globolaxtorum tozeri zone and the Early Hettangian Canoptum merum zone. Benthic foraminifera suffered lesser extinction. Successive conodont faunas of the latest Rhaetian Misikella posthersteini and Misikella ultima zones record a marked drop in diversity and abundance but sporadic survivors persist into the earliest Hettangian. The extinction is also recorded in a reduction of biogenic components in carbonates. Decline of benthic and planktic biota is followed by a negative δ 13C carb excursion of up to − 6‰ that is composed of short-term fluctuations revealed by dense sampling. Carbon and oxygen isotope ratios are positively correlated in the lower part of the section and appear to reflect primary variations. Drivers of the stable isotope trends are interpreted as warming in excess of + 10 °C and concomitant episodic, short-term perturbations of the global carbon cycle, possibly due to methane release from gas–hydrate dissociation induced by rapid climatic events. The main biotic and isotopic events occurred within a single sedimentary cycle but sea-level does not appear to have exerted a critical influence on these changes. The Triassic–Jurassic boundary crisis appears a short but not instantaneous event.

Economic Theory and an Uninvited Rejoinder to Climate Warming Skeptics

The purpose of this short paper is to examine some of the controversy about the Kyoto Protocol - though under no circumstances to impugn climate warming, since these are very different phenomena. An overwhelming majority of high-level scientific opinion accepts that a serious and possibly irreversible change is likely taking place in the global climate due to an overproduction of 'greenhouse gases, and that this dilemma should be addressed as soon as possible; however the Kyoto Protocol and the structure of the negotiating apparatus that brought it about, as well as any likely extensions of that apparatus, are patently flawed. I also emphasize that the resources used in abating greenhouse gases would simultaneously contribute to the establishment of a new global energy system - assuming that they are deployed in an optimal manner - regardless of whether excessive global warming is a reality or (ex-post) science fiction. Accordingly, since the position here is that a new energy system is essential (and inevitable), then a good reason for criticizing the Kyoto Protocol is that it does not do enough to expedite the establishment of this systerm, and thereby exploit the mutual positive externalities that might be available.