Excess Of All-cause Mortality Research Articles

Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy. Long-Term Evolution of Responder and Non-Responder Patients

Background: Cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) is an effective treatment in patients with heart failure (HF), low left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and wide QRS. However, there are a percentage of these patients who are non-responders, implying worse clinical outcomes. Objectives: The aim of this study was to assess the differences in echocardiographic parameters of reverse remodeling and event rates [hospitalization for heart failure (HHF), all-cause mortality (ACM), heart transplantation (HTX) and appropriate therapies (AT)] between responder vs. non-responder patients to CRT. Methods: A total of 343 patients with CRT, classified into responders and non-responders according to clinical and echocardiographic parameters, were included in the study. A 2-year follow-up was performed, in which reverse remodeling and the incidence of HHF, ACM, HTX and AT were evaluated. Results: Among the 343 patients, 17% were non-responders and 83% responders. At 6 and 12 months there were no significant differences in ventricular diameters, but significant differences in LVEF (p<0.001), with greater increase in responders. At 24 months, responders had smaller diastolic diameter (p=0.004), smaller systolic diameter (p=0.003) and higher LVEF (p<0.001). Non-responders had significantly higher incidence of HHF (p<0.001), HTX (p=0.001) and AT (p=0.002), and an excess of ACM at the limit of statistical significance (p= 0.056). Conclusions: Patients responding to CRT presented greater reverse remodeling and better clinical evolution, in accordance with the results of international observational studies.

Estimated excess mortality figures in the year 2020-2021 in casentino municipalities (Italy)

Abstract Background In 2020, the total deaths from all causes were the highest ever recorded in Italy since World War II (15.6% excess), with peaks during Sars-Cov2 waves and reductions in periods of national lockdown. On the contrary, in 2021, the total number of deaths from all causes reduced compared to the previous year. Analysing local mortality data, our study aims to assess whether, in the Casentino Valley (Arezzo, Tuscany), an excess of deaths from all causes occurred between January 2020 and December 2021 compared to the five years 2015-2019. Methods We used the official mortality data from the Italian Institute of Statistics (ISTAT), and that are published in the Table of deaths by the municipality on March 2, 2022. From this database, we extrapolated all deaths from all causes between January 1, 2020, and December 31, 2021, in the 10 municipalities of Casentino. The data collected were processed using Microsoft Excel 2016 software. We then distinguished by total per month, gender, and age group and then compared these data with the previous five years’ average by calculating the percentage change. Results Overall, both the years 2020 and 2021, it is shown an increase in the deaths percentages compared to the previous five-year period, respectively 5.66% and 8.07%. In particular, there is an excess of mortality in November and December 2020. The increase in mortality is more remarkable for males (13% in 2020 and 20% in 2021). The highest percentage increase was recorded in 2021 for the 75-84 age group (+15%) and in 2020 for males over 85 (+29%). Conclusions The data analysed confirms the excess mortality in 2020-2021 compared to the average of the previous 5 years in Casentino. There are peaks in November and December 2020, corresponding with the second wave of Sars Cov2 infection. The results obtained establish the basis for subsequent analyses that will verify the correlation of mortality peaks with the incidence of Sars-Cov2 cases in the territory studied. Key messages • Between January 1, 2020, and December 31, 2021 there was an excess of all-cause mortality in our area. • This excess mortality appears to be related to peaks in Sars-Cov2 infection.

Six Months After the Patients Stayed Home: A Nationwide Study of Cardiac Mortality and Readmissions Following the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Malta.

BackgroundThe first COVID-19 wave resulted in a significant decline in acute cardiac admissions (ACAs) and delays to hospital presentation in Malta, as well as an excess of out-of-hospital cardiac arrests. The aim was to investigate the impact of the observed delays in presentation in 2020 on mortality and cardiac readmissions at six months.MethodsAll ACAs between 28th February and 30th April 2020 (first wave of COVID-19 in Malta) were included, and the corresponding 2019 period was used as a control. ACA was defined as an unplanned admission of an adult (aged ≥16 years) under the care of a cardiologist. Outcomes over the six months following the index ACA included death, cardiac readmission, and planned cardiac intervention at discharge. The term ‘death’ referred to all-cause mortality. Cardiac readmissions referred to unplanned admissions for acute cardiac pathology following the index ACA. During sub-analyses, ACAs were divided into acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and non-ACS. A first analysis compared the frequency of deaths, cardiac readmissions, and planned interventions between the 2019 and 2020 cohorts. A second analysis investigated differences in six-month survival and freedom from readmission between the two cohorts. Both analyses were followed by a sub-analysis.ResultsThere were 330 ACAs among the 2019 cohort and 220 in 2020. There were no significant differences between the 2019 and 2020 cohorts in all-cause mortality (2019, 8.8% vs 2020, 8.2%, p=0.466) and Kaplan-Meier survival estimates at a six-month follow-up (2019, 169.06 days (95% CI 164.95-173.17) vs 2020, 168.27 days (95% CI 162.82-173.72), p=0.836), including subgroup analysis for non-ACS (2019, 168.52 days (95% CI 163.08-173.96) vs 168.11 days (95% CI 160.93-175.30), p=0.952) and ACS patients (169.81 days (95% CI 163.54-176.09) in 2019 vs 168.45 days (95% CI 160.17-176.73) in 2020, p=0.739).A significantly higher number of patients from the 2019 cohort (75/319, 23.5%) required readmission compared to 2020 (32/212; 15.1%) (p=0.02). Similarly, there was shorter freedom from cardiac readmission among 2019 patients (mean 150.98 days (95% CI 144.63-157.33)) compared to 2020 patients (mean 158.66 days (95% CI 151.58-165.74, p=0.024). During sub-analysis, the difference in freedom from readmission was significant only for non-ACS patients (mean of 145.45 days (95% CI 136.58-154.32) in 2019 vs 158.92 days (95% CI 149.19-168.64) in 2020, p=0.018).Analysis of cardiac interventions during the six months post-index ACA discharge showed significantly more planned cardiac interventions in 2019 (52/319; 16.3%) compared to 2020 (20/212; 9.4%) (p=0.027).ConclusionsA delay in presentation of ACAs during COVID-19 in Malta resulted in lower readmission rates and increased freedom from readmissions, with no excess in all-cause mortality at a six-month follow-up. The reasons for the optimistic outcomes of patients admitted during the first wave of COVID-19 may be multifactorial. Reasons may include ongoing fear of hospital presentation, a more holistic approach to patients’ in-hospital care during 2020 aimed at reducing further hospital contact post-discharge, and a selection bias secondary to an excess of out-of-hospital cardiac arrests during the initial wave of COVID-19. Further studies will be required to truly assess the collateral impact of non-COVID-19-related illness. Public education on cardiovascular health is vital and must be emphasized during the pandemic.

Analysis of Excess All-Cause Mortality and COVID-19 Mortality in Peru: Observational Study.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, an excess of all-cause mortality has been recorded in several countries, including Peru. Most excess deaths were likely attributable to COVID-19. In this study, we compared the excess all-cause mortality and COVID-19 mortality in 25 Peruvian regions to determine whether most of the excess deaths in 2020 were attributable to COVID-19. Excess deaths were calculated as the difference between the number of observed deaths from all causes during the COVID-19 pandemic (in 2020) and the number of expected deaths in 2020 based on a historical from recent years (2017–2019). Death data were retrieved from the Sistema Informatico Nacional de Defunciones (SINADEF) at the Ministry of Health of Peru from January 2017 to December 2020. Population counts were obtained from projections from Peru’s Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática (INEI). All-cause excess mortality and COVID-19 mortality were calculated by region per 100,000 population. Spearman’s test and linear and multiple regression models were used to estimate the correlation between excess all-cause mortality and COVID-19 mortality per 100,000 population. Excess all-cause death rates varied widely among regions (range: 115.1 to 519.8 per 100,000 population), and COVID-19 mortality ranged between 83.8 and 464.6 per 100,000 population. There was a correlation between the all-cause excess mortality and COVID-19 mortality (r = 0.90; p = 0.00001; y = 0.8729x + 90.808; R2 = 0.84). Adjusted for confounding factors (mean age in the region, gender balance, and number of intensive care unit (ICU) beds), the all-cause excess mortality rate was correlated with COVID-19 mortality rate (β = 0.921; p = 0.0001). These findings suggest that most of the excess deaths in Peru are related to COVID-19. Therefore, these findings can help decision-makers to understand the high COVID-19 mortality rates in Peru.

Using administrative health data to estimate prevalence and mortality rates of alcohol and other substance-related disorders for surveillance purposes.

Administrative health databases (AHD) are critical to guide health service management and can inform the whole spectrum of substance-related disorders (SRD). This study estimates prevalence and mortality rates of SRD in administrative health databases. The Quebec Integrated Chronic Disease Surveillance System consists of linked AHD. Analyses were performed on data of all Quebec residents aged 12 and over and eligible for health-care coverage using the International Classification of Diseases (ninth or tenth revision) for case identification. Mortality rate ratios stratified by causes of death were obtained to calculate an excess of mortality. Since 2001-2002, the annual age-adjusted prevalence rate of diagnosed overall SRD remained stable (8.6 per 1000 in 2017-2018). In any given year, the annual prevalence rate was significantly higher in males; adolescents had the lowest rate, while adults 65 years and older the highest. The annual 2017-2018 rate was 2.1 per 1000 for alcohol-induced disorder, 1.9 for other drug-induced disorder, 0.7 for alcohol intoxication and 0.6 for other drug intoxications. Cumulative rate of any diagnosis related to alcohol was 32 per 1000 females and 53 per 1000 males (2001-2018), and 33 per 1000 females and 49 per 1000 males for any diagnosis related to other drugs. There was an excess of all-cause mortality among individuals with SRD compared to the general population. AHD can complement epidemiological surveys in monitoring SRD jurisdiction-wide. Surveillance of services utilisation and interventions, coupled with health outcomes like mortality, could be useful in guiding health services planning.

All-cause excess mortality observed by age group and regions in the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in England.

England has experienced one of the highest excess in all-cause mortality in Europe during the current COVID-19 pandemic. As COVID-19 emerged, the excess in all-cause mortality rapidly increased, starting in March 2020. The excess observed during the pandemic was higher than excesses noted in the past 5 years. It concerned all regions and all age groups, except the 0–14 year olds, but was more pronounced in the London region and in those aged ≥ 85 years.

Cardiovascular Disease, Digestive Diseases, Traffic Accidents, and Suicides: Leading Causes of Death Responsible for Excess Mortality in Farmers in Spain.

The aim of this study was to compare mortality from the leading causes of death in farmers and in all other workers. Mortality by cause of death was calculated from a longitudinal study in which 9.5 million men were followed up for 10 years. We estimated the contribution of the causes of death to the difference in all-cause mortality. Most of the excess in all-cause mortality in farmers was due to cardiovascular diseases, digestive diseases, and external causes, which contributed 22.3%, 17.2%, and 53.3% to the difference in all-cause mortality, respectively. Traffic accidents and suicide were the main contributors to the excess mortality from external causes. Farmers are a vulnerable group in terms of health, thus there is a need to identify the factors that influence excess mortality from cardiovascular diseases, digestive diseases, traffic accidents, and suicide.

Abstract 3437: Cancer and all-cause mortality among white and blue collar workers in middle-aged and elderly chinese women in a prospective cohort study

Abstract Inequalities in health and mortality between white and blue collar workers have been well documented in western countries, particularly among men. Studies regarding occupation related mortality disparities in Asian populations including Chinese are limited. We included 74,941 40-70 years old Chinese women from the Shanghai Women's Health Study (SWHS) in an analysis of occupation and mortality. An in-person interview was conducted at enrolment to obtain lifetime job history as well as lifestyle and other potential risk factors for each participant. Each job title was coded in three digits according to the Chinese National Standard Occupation and Industry Codes Manual, and the categories of white and blue collar work were defined based on this coding. The information on mortality was provided by annual linkage to the Shanghai Vital Statistics Registry. Cox regression models were applied to evaluate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of all-cause and cause-specific mortality. In comparison with lifetime white collar workers, lifetime blue collar workers had 18% excess in all cause-mortality (HR = 1.18, 95% CI = 1.04-1.34) and 12% excess in cancer deaths (HR = 1.12, 95% CI = 0.93-1.35) after adjustment for lifestyle and other potential risk factors. A significantly increased risk was also associated with mortality from diabetes (HR = 1.89, 95% CI = 1.06-3.37). There were no statistically significant differences in mortality between white and blue collar workers for other causes of death including circulatory, respiratory, gastrointestinal or other diseases among this population. Our study provides suggestive evidence that blue collar workers may have a higher risk of total cancer mortality compared to white collar workers among women in Shanghai. Citation Format: Bu-Tian Ji. Cancer and all-cause mortality among white and blue collar workers in middle-aged and elderly chinese women in a prospective cohort study. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 107th Annual Meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research; 2016 Apr 16-20; New Orleans, LA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2016;76(14 Suppl):Abstract nr 3437.

Comparison of direct costs of type 2 diabetes care: Different care models with different outcomes

Backgrounds and aimsTo compare direct costs of four different care models and health outcomes in adults with type 2 diabetes. Methods and resultsWe used multiple independent data sources to identify 25,570 adults with type 2 diabetes residing in Turin, Italy, as of 1 July 2003. Data extracted from administrative data databases were used to create four care models ranging in organization from highly structured care (integrated primary and specialist care) to progressively less structured care (unstructured care). Regression analyses, adjusted for main confounders, were applied to examine the differences between the models in direct costs, mortality, and diabetes-related hospitalizations rates over a 4-year period. In patients managed according to the unstructured care model (i.e., usual care by a primary care provider and without strict guidelines adherence), excess of all-cause mortality was 84% and 4-year direct cost was 8% higher than in those managed according to the highly structured care model. Cost ratio analysis revealed that the major cost driver in the unstructured care model was hospital admissions, which were 31% higher than the rate calculated for the more structured care models. In contrast, spending on prescription medications and specialist consultations was higher in the highly structured care model. ConclusionA diabetes care model that integrates primary and specialty care, together with practices that adhere to guideline recommendations, was associated with a reduction in all-cause mortality and hospitalizations, as compared with less structured models, without increasing direct health costs.

Excess Mortality Rate During Adulthood Among Danish Adoptees

Background and objectiveAdoption studies have been used to disentangle the influence of genes from shared familial environment on various traits and disease risks. However, both the factors leading to adoption and living as an adoptee may bias the studies with regard to the relative influence of genes and environment compared to the general population. The aim was to investigate whether the cohort of domestic adoptees used for these studies in Denmark is similar to the general population with respect to all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality rates.Methods13,111 adoptees born in Denmark in 1917, or later, and adopted in 1924 to 1947 were compared to all Danes from the same birth cohorts using standardized mortality ratios (SMR). The 12,729 adoptees alive in 1970 were similarly compared to all Danes using SMR as well as cause-specific SMR.ResultsThe excess in all-cause mortality before age 65 years in adoptees was estimated to be 1.30 (95% CI 1.26–1.35). Significant excess mortality before age 65 years was also observed for infections, vascular deaths, cancer, alcohol-related deaths and suicide. Analyses including deaths after age 65 generally showed slightly less excess in mortality, but the excess was significant for all-cause mortality, cancer, alcohol-related deaths and suicides.ConclusionAdoptees have an increased all-cause mortality compared to the general population. All major specific causes of death contributed, and the highest excess is seen for alcohol-related deaths.

Health Outcomes Associated with Hormone Therapy in Australian Women

The risks and benefits of hormone therapy (HT) in the treatment of postmenopausal women remain controversial. In this population-based, observational study, we documented health outcomes among postmenopausal Australian women using HT. Women aged 60-80 years were recruited into the Geelong Osteoporosis Study 1994-7 and followed over a median period of 6.6 years. Mortality, and the development of vascular events, breast and colorectal cancers were documented for 67 HT-users and 521 non-users. Median duration of HT-use was 5.0 years (IQR 3.0-10.0). There was no excess in all-cause mortality associated with HT-use. Based on 92 deaths (six HT-users, 86 non-users), the adjusted odds ratio (OR) for all-cause mortality was 0.79 (95%CI 0.32-1.97). With 99 reports of vascular events (13 HT-users, 86 non-users), the adjusted OR for vascular events was 1.30 (95%CI 0.66-2.57). There were insufficient numbers of breast or colorectal cancer cases (21 breast cancer cases, all non-HT users; and 7 colorectal cancer cases, one HT-user and six non-users) to adequately calculate the risk associated with exposure to HT. Although the sample size was small, these results do not support an association between HT and mortality, despite a possible link between HT and increased risk of developing vascular disease.

L’asthme est-il une maladie toujours potentiellement mortelle ?

After a substantial augmentation in the mid-1980s, mortality from asthma stabilized in France as in the other industrialized countries, probably because of ever more appropriate health care utilization and treatment. In 2004, there were 1099 death in metropolitan France with a principal cause listed as asthma (last published data), for a crude rate of 1.8 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. Despite the fact that fewer people are dying of asthma, several studies show an excess of all-cause mortality among people with asthma compared with people without asthma. The prevalence of severe asthma does not appear to have diminished, and clinical data show that severe asthma remains potentially fatal, because of resistant phenotypes, among other reasons. Other investigations are necessary to determine the trends in the prevalence of severe asthma and to understand the nonrespiratory mortality of asthma patients. Vigilance and surveillance of severe asthma must be maintained.

Prevalence of morbidity and multimorbidity in elderly male populations and their impact on 10-year all-cause mortality: The FINE study (Finland, Italy, Netherlands, Elderly)

Older males are known to carry, more likely than younger people, one or more chronic diseases with an expected impact on mortality. This study was aimed at identifying the relationship of prevalent chronic diseases in elderly populations of different countries with all-cause mortality. Men aged 65–84 from defined areas were enrolled in Finland ( N=716), the Netherlands ( N=887) and Italy ( N=682). They were survivors of cohorts studied for 25 years within the Seven Countries Study. Major chronic diseases were diagnosed at entry. Ten-year follow-up for mortality was completed. Entry prevalence of selected chronic diseases was higher in Finland (56%) than in Italy (51%) and the Netherlands (44%). Ten-year age-adjusted death rates from all causes were higher in Finland (565 per 1000) and lower in the Netherlands (478 per 1000) and Italy (445 per 1000). The absolute risk of death related to chronic disease was high in the three countries, but was higher in Finland than in the Netherlands and Italy. The most lethal condition was stroke, with 10-year death rates of 806 per 1000 in Finland and 707 and 729 per 1000 in the Netherlands and Italy, respectively. The relative risk of all-cause mortality for a set of seven chronic diseases (coronary heart disease, heart failure, claudicatio intermittens, cerebrovascular accidents, diabetes, COPD and cancer) adjusted by age, other diseases and cohort was less than two for each condition, except cerebrovascular accidents in the Netherlands (RR 2.20). In general, relative risk was higher in Finland, intermediate in the Netherlands and lower in Italy, where only cerebrovascular accidents, intermittent claudication, diabetes and the presence of any chronic condition had a significant relative risk. About one third of men had one chronic disease, and between 10% and 15% had two diseases. The coexistence of any two or three chronic conditions was associated with a relative risk of 2 or more in Finland and the Netherlands and less than 2 in Italy. In these elderly men prevalent morbidity and comorbidity was relatively common and it explained a large proportion of excess in all-cause mortality in 10 years of follow-up.

Arterial calcification found on breast cancer screening mammograms and cardiovascular mortality in women: The DOM Project. Doorlopend Onderzoek Morbiditeit en Mortaliteit.

Breast arterial calcification (BAC) has been associated with diabetes and hypertension. This prompted the authors to study the relation between BAC and cardiovascular mortality in a cohort of 12,239 women aged 50-68 years who participated in a population-based breast cancer screening project (DOM Project) in Utrecht, the Netherlands, during the period 1975-1977. Mortality data from 16-19 years of follow-up were available. The occurrence of outcome events was compared in terms of hazard ratios. Cardiovascular risk factors, including age, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, parity, Quetelet index, and smoking, were studied to identify possible confounders. Arterial calcification was seen in 9% of the women. The hazard ratio for overall mortality was 1.29 (95% confidence interval 1.06-1.58) in women with BAC detected on screening mammograms in comparison with women without BAC after correction for the above-mentioned factors. An excess of all-cause mortality was found in diabetic women with BAC (hazard ratio = 1.74, 95% confidence interval 1.19-2.56), which was also present in subgroups of coronary mortality. These results indicate that BAC is associated with an increased risk of subsequent cardiovascular death in women over age 50 years and in diabetic women in particular.

Seasonal variation in mortality in The Netherlands.

The aim was to describe the pattern of seasonal variation in all cause mortality in The Netherlands, and to analyse the contribution of specific causes of death to the winter excess of all cause mortality. Daily numbers of deaths in The Netherlands, by cause, were obtained for the period 1979-1987. Patterns of variation were analysed using Poisson regression. The model related the observed number of deaths to (1) the number expected for that day on the basis of person-days at risk by age and sex, (2) secular trend, and (3) first and higher order cosine terms where appropriate. All cause mortality has a bimodal peak in the first months of the year. After that it declines to reach a plateau in late spring. Mortality is lowest at the end of August, after which it rises steeply again. The winter excess of all cause mortality is primarily due to cardiovascular diseases (66%) and respiratory conditions (13%). Cardiovascular mortality peaks before respiratory mortality, suggesting different lag times in the effects of winter. There was an episode of exceptionally high mortality (above the normal winter excess) in early 1986, which was primarily due to cardiovascular diseases (39%) and respiratory conditions (25%). This episode was probably caused by a severe influenza epidemic, and was not followed by a compensatory lowering of mortality. The pattern of variation of mortality within the year suggests that it is not based on a simple relationship with climatological circumstances, because the latter fluctuate according to a less complex pattern. Cause specific data suggest an instantaneous effect of "winter" on the cardiovascular system, and a delayed effect mediated by respiratory infections.

Is borderline fasting hyperglycemia a risk factor for cardiovascular death?

The majority of previously reported studies of borderline hyperglycemia as a risk factor for cardiovascular disease are based on post-challenge glucose levels, are limited to men, and show either no significant association or a possible threshold effect. In order to determine whether fasting plasma glucose (FPG) in the normal range (<140 mg/dl) predicts mortality, we prospectively studied a geographically defined Southern California community of 3625 nondiabetic men and women aged 40–79, 99.5% of whom were followed for 9 years. Levels of FPG were significantly asociated with levels of most heart disease risk factors. After adjusting for these risk factors, FPG, analyzed either as a continuous or categorical variable, was independently and significantly associated with all-cause, cardiovascular and ischemic heart disease mortality in men in proportional hazard models. An excess of all-cause mortality with the highest levels of FPG (130–139 mg/dl) was the only statistically significant association seen in women. The absence of a significant linear association in women may reflect true sex differences or a lack of power owing to the relatively small numbers of deaths in women. The independent linear glucose mortality association in men found here differs from previous studies, and may reflect both the larger number of events and the use of FPG, which has less intra-individual variability and less potential for misclassification bias than post-challenge glucose.