Example Of Risk Analysis Research Articles

864. Can Population Risk Factors be Directly Applied to Guide Individual Patient’s Diagnosis and Treatment in Clinical Practice? – the Need to Re-Direct Epidemiology Research for Clinical Application in the Future

Abstract Background The implementation of population risk factor-guided diagnostic approach and treatment regimen has been widely considered in clinical practice to treat individual patient. However, the meaning of these risk factors, which are primarily developed from population-based epidemiology studies and thus presented probability and risk/odds ratio, are hard to interpret in clinical settings for individual patient. In this study, we provided an example of risk analysis for COVID-19 early intervention, in which the diagnostic accuracy of a population risk factor-based treatment regimen and an individual risk factor-based treatment regimen were compared, and the associated benefits and costs were evaluated. Methods The treatment regimen guided by the population risk factors was defined as such, that every COVID-19 patient aged ≥65 years old, and/or with at least one of the pre-selected chronic co-morbid conditions will be given a 500 mg/8 mL dose of the monoclonal antibody therapy, Sotrovimab intravenous, to prevent fatal outcome. The individual risk factor-based treatment regimen was determined using logistic regression model. We set the cost of Sotrovimab as $315.00 per patient, and the total cost including medication, hospital and infusion center administration charges, and charges for medical staffs as $2,000.00 per patient. Results Our study showed that the treatment regimen guided by population risk factors had resulted in a large amount of patient misclassification, with only 51.9% overall diagnostic accuracy, which is close to a random chance. However, by using the precision approach we developed for individual patient, the diagnostic accuracy was improved to 75%. Population risk factor-based treatment regimen prevented 1,570 more patients from a fatal outcome, however, it added 8 million dollars of cost for Sotrovimab and overall additional 54 million dollars of total cost. Conclusion Population level risk analysis provided inadequate information for individual patient’s diagnosis and treatment in clinical practice. Future research needs to focus on developing personalized diagnostic and treatment approach. We anticipate the improved clinical prediction by adding additional laboratory biomarkers to the individual precision diagnostic approach we developed. Disclosures All Authors: No reported disclosures

A hybrid risk prioritization method based on generalized TODIM and BWM for Fine-Kinney under interval type-2 fuzzy environment

The risk prioritization process is one of the most crucial steps for risk evaluation of potential hazards. The Fine-Kinney method has been commonly applied to controll risks in practice, while the classical Fine-Kinney has limitations in the determination of important degrees of risk parameters. In addition, current risk prioritization approaches for Fine-Kinney overlook the bounded rational behavior of expert within the uncertain context, especially, the high uncertain environment. The purpose of this paper is to develop a hybrid risk prioritization approach for Fine-Kinney by using generalized TODIM (an acronym in Portuguese of interactive and multi-criteria decision making), best-worst, and the interval type-2 fuzzy set. First, the linguistic terms and interval type-2 fuzzy numbers are adopted to handle the expression problem of the team members’ uncertain evaluation information. Second, in order to obtain the objective weights of risk parameters, the best-worst method is proposed to determine the relative importance degrees of risk parameters. Third, the interval type-2 fuzzy numbers are incorporated into the generalized TODIM method to determine the risk priority orders of hazards, which can simulate the experts’ bounded rational behavior under uncertain environment. Finally, a practical risk analysis example of ballast tank maintenance and the sensitivity and comparison analysis is presented to demonstrate the application of the proposed Fine-Kinney framework. The sensitivity analysis and comparison are employed to validate the reliability of the new risk prioritization model.

Analysis and risk assessment of risk technical systems in the development of the methodology for the students training by transforming structures

The purpose of this article is to develop a methodology for risk analysis by transforming structures. A methodology for risk analysis is proposed by transforming structures based on existing links between the system description through a block diagram, a fault tree, and an event tree. Risk analysis of risk techniques by fault tree and event tree provides an unambiguous relationship between element parameters and parity of equivalent elements describing a system or a subsystem. An example of risk analysis by transforming structures is presented, according to the proposed methodology applicable to risk identification, including transformations between block diagram and fault tree and event tree, as well as variants to determine their risk (at accepted value of damages), according to acceptances made. A methodology has been developed and examples of risk analysis by transformation of structures are shown.

Study of the risk of scheme of traffic light as risk technical system with the fault tree method

The aim of the paper is to develop a methodology for risk analysis and risk assessment of a risk technical system (traffic light scheme) using the fault tree method. Results: Analysis of the risk of risk technical systems through a fault tree gives an unambiguous relationship between element parameters and parameters of equivalent elements describing a system or a part of a system. An example of risk analysis of a risk technical system (traffic light-scheme) is shown with the fault tree method applicable to students training on risk analysis and management, including a sample scheme and a tree scheme (according to accepted assumptions) and with the possibility of calculating it and determining the risk at the assumed value of the damage. Contributions: A methodology for analysis and risk assessment of risk technical systems (traffic lightscheme) has been developed and an example has been developed for the students' training in risk analysis and management.

Semantic Risk Analysis Based on Single-Valued Neutrosophic Sets

Fuzzy risk analysis is diffusely applied in risk assessment of components by the semantic model. Due to the fuzzy characteristic in the process of fuzzy risk analysis, analysis parameters are imprecise and vague. Therefore, the determination of the risk of failure is challenging part of fuzzy risk analysis with existing methods. Hence, in this paper, a semantic risk analysis method based on the technique for order performance by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) under a single-valued neutrosophic set (SVNS) is presented. First, a five-member linguistic term set is introduced and these linguistic terms are expressed in terms of the generalized trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. Then, the linguistic term is transformed into the SVNS and generated SVNS is fused by single-valued neutrosophic prioritized weighted average (SVNPWA) operator. On this basis, the TOPSIS approach is used to obtain the final rank to ascertain future risk. Finally, a fuzzy risk analysis example is conducted to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. Further, the out-performance of the proposed method is illustrated in comparisons to the existing methods.

I002] Practical examples of risk management in radiotherapy

Introduction Risks are naturally also present in radiotherapy, where the patient is subject of the application of high doses of ionizing radiation. For the case of radiotherapy already exist extensive quality assurance procedures that have been developed for the imaging and treatment equipment and software involved. Nevertheless, all quality assurance measures on e.g. the dose applied focuses only on the technical side of the risk linked to the administration of radiation. The personal operating these machines or software follow usually organized procedures and are faced by the workload given in relation to the workforce provided by the institution. Actions and decisions are taken, that may impose also risks to patients not covered by the above mentioned quality assurance systems of the machines. The goal of risk analysis in radiotherapy is to reduce all possible kind of risks linked to patients during their treatment, but this is also part of the risk management which seeks to continuously improve the quality of the treatment and safety of the patient. Additionally, this includes also the prevention of the institution as well as the people working there from unjustified claims of patients. This is of economical value to the institution as insurance premiums are calculated according the level of risk of insurance claims. Materials and Methods The risk analysis is usually following the proactive method of “healthcare failure mode and error analysis” (hFMEA) [1] . This starts with the identification of possible sources of risks in all procedures involved. This is best done by a internal team of experts from the institution itself knowing all related facts, that is accompanied by an external expert for risk analysis. Risks are then categorised according their potential frequency of occurrence, detectability and severity of consequences in form of a risk or hazard scoring matrix, where scoring values can be used to classify the associated risk. From this risk matrix priorities have to be set for measures to control and reduce these risks if possible. Practical examples of risk analysis in radiotherapy are used to illustrate this procedure.

Development of the method for assessing the action zones of hazards in an emergency at a city filling station using geoinformation technology

The object of research is a specific filling station (gas station), which is located in the Odessa (Ukraine) on the Gastello street. Filling station recepts and stores petroleum products (gasoline A-80, A-93, diesel fuel, engine oil) and refueling vehicles. The facility includes a tank of 40 m 3 of tank fuel and 1 tank of 15 m 3 tanks. The area of influence includes a motorway, a garage cooperative, a cafe-bar, a multi-storey house, a gas distribution station. One of the most problematic places of operation of the filling station is emergency risk – fire and explosion, as a result of leakage and the accumulation of fumes of oil products. Therefore, local destruction of the reservoir is considered with subsequent ignition of the leak, which led to the appearance of a shock wave. In the course of the research, a method for assessing the zones of action of damaging factors is developed, in which geographical information technologies are used. The method includes the steps of selecting an emergency scenario, processing the primary data, calculating the values and radii of the zones of the component parameters of the emergency situation. Visualization of the destruction zones in Quantum GIS version 2.18.2, with an open information code, distributed under the terms of the GNU General Public License is also included. Based on calculations of the size of hazardous areas in which full, medium, weak destruction of buildings and related injuries in humans are possible, the results of their visualization based on the architecture of an integrated geographic information system (GIS) are possible. The proposed method has a number of features, in particular, it allows to identify a specific city territory, which is covered by negative factors of accident consequences, in on-line mode. Due to this, certain «care» objects that have fallen into the corresponding risk zones, among which are 2 multi-storey houses, a gas distribution station, a cafe-bar, a garage cooperative, a significant part of the motorway. In comparison with similar known examples of risk analysis, the method allows to classify the «care» objects by the levels of damage, and organize appropriate measures to minimize risks in the environmental management system of the city. The method provides such advantages as systemic representation of potentially dangerous objects and subjects of their influence, the integration of branched development scenarios, visibility, cross-platform and openness of information data. Using the method of modeling the development of an emergency at filling stations within the city of a million people improves the efficiency of the information presentation, allows to adequately predict the development of the environmental situation in the risk management system. And also positively affects the work of the SES bodies in ensuring the technogenic security of the city.

Food and Feed Safety Assessment: The Importance of Proper Sampling.

The general principles for safety and nutritional evaluation of foods and feed and the potential health risks associated with hazardous compounds are described as developed by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Health Organization (WHO) and further elaborated in the European Union-funded project Safe Foods. We underline the crucial role of sampling in foods/feed safety assessment. High quality sampling should always be applied to ensure the use of adequate and representative samples as test materials for hazard identification, toxicological and nutritional characterization of identified hazards, as well as for estimating quantitative and reliable exposure levels of foods/feed or related compounds of concern for humans and animals. The importance of representative sampling is emphasized through examples of risk analyses in different areas of foods/feed production. The Theory of Sampling (TOS) is recognized as the only framework within which to ensure accuracy and precision of all sampling steps involved in the field-to-fork continuum, which is crucial to monitor foods and feed safety. Therefore, TOS must be integrated in the well-established FAO/WHO risk assessment approach in order to guarantee a transparent and correct frame for the risk assessment and decision making process.

Local-scale climate scenarios for impact studies and risk assessments: integration of early 21st century ENSEMBLES projections into the ELPIS database

We present the integration of early 21st century climate projections for Europe based on simulations carried out within the EU-FP6 ENSEMBLES project with the LARS-WG stochastic weather generator. The aim was to upgrade ELPIS, a repository of local-scale climate scenarios for use in impact studies and risk assessments that already included global projections from the CMIP3 ensemble and regional scenarios for Japan. To obtain a more reliable simulation of daily rainfall and extremes, changes in wet and dry series derived from daily ENSEMBLES outputs were taken into account. Kernel average smoothers were used to reduce noise arising from sampling artefacts. Examples of risk analyses based on 25-km climate projections from the ENSEMBLES ensemble of regional climate models illustrate the possibilities offered by the updated version of ELPIS. The results stress the importance of tailored information for local-scale impact assessments at the European level.

Methicillin-resistente Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) in der medizinischen Rehabilitation

Rehabilitation facilities often apply the same standards for management of methicillin-resistant Stapylococcus aureus (MRSA) carriers as acute care hospitals. This makes it difficult to ensure access to the facilities and adequate rehabilitation for carriers. A working group of the Bavarian state committee for multiresistant pathogens addressed these problems by a systematic review of literature, expert group meetings and evaluation of existing hygiene plans. Thereby a model hygiene plan for rehabilitation facilities concerning management of MRSA carriers was derived. The management is based on physician risk assessment blending standards applied in acute and long-term care facilities. For rehabilitation typical risk scenario examples of risk analyses are given. The preventive measures are based on the respective objectives of protection. The risk analysis which gives the basis for the model hygiene plan described in this paper gives equal weight to two main objectives of protection: infection control and medical rehabilitation.

Slope Instability Risk Analysis in Earth Dams Considering Uncertain Factors

Based on Simplified Bishop Slice Method and by applying LHS –MC method, risk analysis of slope instability in earth dams is presented. Based on Bishop Model, the equilibrium equation is established to evaluate the slope instability risk accounting for the uncertainties arising from soil properties and water level. Cohesive force c, friction angle φ, their relation and water level are taken as random variables which have a large influence on slop instability. One example of risk analysis for dam slope instability is presented to demonstrate the validity and capability of the proposed method.

Slope Instability Risk Analysis in Earth Dams Using LHS-MC Method

Risk analysis of slope instability in earth dams is presented using LHS –MC method. Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) is suggested as a tool to improve the efficiency of MC random sampling method. One example of risk analysis for dam slope instability is presented to demonstrate the validity and capability of the proposed method. By means of numerical example, it is shown that about 25% of the calculations can be saved by using LHS –MC method instead of simple MC. The exact savings, however, are dependent on details in the use of LHS and on the shape of the failure surfaces of the problems.

Managing Electronic Records. 4th ed

Managing Electronic Records. 4th ed

7.5.2 Risk Analysis

AbstractThis paper presents a risk analysis example with quantitative data for frequency of occurrence and severity of consequences. It presents an algorithm for deriving severity scores. Then it shows use of a risk management tool that is commonly used in industry. Finally it presents many other factors that affect human perception of risk. Identifying and controlling risk is a characteristic behavior of intelligent enterprises.

UHF defect evaluation in gas insulated equipment

Small defects in SF/sub 6/ gas-insulated substations like fixed particles (fixed to conductors or on spacer surfaces) or free moving particles can influence the insulation strength of the insulation system. To determine the risk of such defects on the insulation strength, identification of the PD source is one of the most important steps. In this paper, a method to identify defects based on statistical analysis of frequency spectra is introduced. Finally two examples of risk analysis of defects in GIS are shown.

Implementing the Bayesian paradigm in risk analysis

Abstract The Bayesian paradigm comprises a unified and consistent framework for analyzing and expressing risk. Yet, we see rather few examples of applications where the full Bayesian setting has been adopted with specifications of priors of unknown parameters. In this paper, we discuss some of the practical challenges of implementing Bayesian thinking and methods in risk analysis, emphasizing the introduction of probability models and parameters and associated uncertainty assessments. We conclude that there is a need for a pragmatic view in order to ‘successfully’ apply the Bayesian approach, such that we can do the assignments of some of the probabilities without adopting the somewhat sophisticated procedure of specifying prior distributions of parameters. A simple risk analysis example is presented to illustrate ideas.

True Odds: How Risk Affects Your Life

True Odds: How Risk Affects Your Life, by James Walsh, 1996, Santa Monica, Calif.: Merritt Publishing. Reviewer: James Kallman, St. John's University, New York. Like a good novel writer, Walsh immediately engages the reader. possibility of birth defects in his anticipated child provide a personal and gripping example of risk analysis. From this anecdote, with which the reader can easily sympathize, Walsh presents 16 case studies of risk analysis. Through these familiar episodes, Walsh is able to demonstrate the important and interesting elements of statistics, risk, and decision making. stated objective of the book is to explain the basic concepts of risk and how they influence your everyday life. Walsh's case-study analyses effectively accomplish this goal. Fortunately for academics, each of the 16 case studies is appropriate for a classroom discussion. For example, Chapter 11, The Moral Hazard of Buying Insurance, presents a familiar argument with a refreshing perspective. first four case studies examine the methodology of data collection. Each case study demonstrates a procedure used in risk analysis. As is true for the birth defect story, the reader will find them readily familiar. They include contemporary topics such as AIDS research (Who's Most Likely To Contract AIDS) and crime research (New York City Is Safer Than Tallahassee, Florida). Because these case studies are relevant to most college students (and professors), they provide an excellent means to engage the reader in understanding the process of collecting risk data. Walsh suggests that people get more information about risky events from the media than they do from more credible sources. In addition, Walsh acknowledges the importance of revealing assumptions and particular definitions in modeling. Thus, the biases of researchers are exposed and the structuring of risk problems is critically examined. next four cases expose the difficulties in analyzing data. Walsh demonstrates how perceptions and misperceptions of data create sensationalism. In Chapter 6, The Shortest Distance Between Two Points, he reveals how the press exaggerates the risk of airline travel while simultaneously almost ignoring the risk of automobile travel. serious risks (driving and heart disease) are often ignored while we obsess over more trivial risks (pesticides and breast implants). Walsh refers to this as statistical homicide, where the risks that scare people overshadow the risks that kill people. …