Exact Decision Research Articles

Fuzzy multiobjective model for distributed generation expansion planning in uncertain environment

Uncertainty is one of the important factors that increase risk of exact decision makings. Although power systems behave more probabilistic today and system risk cannot be avoided completely, it can be evaluated and managed to an acceptable extent in planning, design, and operation activities. This paper presents a fuzzy multiobjective model for distributed generation planning so that uncertainties are modeled using fuzzy numbers (trapezoidal form). The proposed fuzzy model is based on the risk of economic, technical, and environmental objectives as well as fuzzy values of investment and operation cost of DG units due to technology's progress and fuel price fluctuations in the future. This model determines the optimal time, location, size, and type of DG units in distribution networks, using a multiobjective genetic algorithm (NSGA-II). The technologies which are considered in this study are photovoltaic (PV), wind turbine (WT), fuel cell (FC), microturbine (MT), gas turbine (GT), and diesel engine (DE). The proposed model is applied on a typical distribution system (IEEE 37 node test feeder) to assess the efficiency of the approach. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Identification of independent risk factors for the development of diabetic retinopathy requiring treatment

Diabetic retinopathy is screened by fundus photography and screening intervals are defined according to general rules to ensure that vision threatening complications are detected even if the progression of the disease is fast. The resulting superfluous examinations of patients with slow disease progression can be reduced by a more exact decision model that allows an adjustment of the screening interval to each patient's individual risk profile. This requires an identification of independent risk factors for reaching treatment end points for diabetic retinopathy. Clinical data from 5365 patients who had undergone 23 324 examinations at the Department of Ophthalmology, Århus University Hospital between Jan 1st 1994 and Dec 31st 2007 were used to identify independent risk factors for progression of treatment requiring retinopathy. The risk of reaching a treatment end point was in both diabetes types independently affected by retinopathy grade and HbA1c. Furthermore, in type 1 diabetic patients the risk of reaching a treatment end point was independently affected by disease duration and by a recommended control interval of less than 3 months, in spite of correction for retinopathy grade and other studied confounders, whereas in type 2 diabetes this risk was affected by increasing age of diagnosis of the disease. Only a subset of known risk factors for development and progression of diabetic retinopathy should be used to construct a decision model for optimizing screening intervals for diabetic retinopathy.

Multisensor based security robot system for intelligent building

Intelligent building can provide safety, convenience, efficiency and entertainment for life in the 21st century. The most importance role of the intelligent building is the security system. We develop a multi sensor-based intelligent security robot (ISR) that is widely employed in intelligent buildings. The intelligent security robot can detect abnormal and dangerous situations and notify users. The robot has the shape of cylinder and its diameter, height, and weight are 50 cm, 130 cm and 100 kg respectively. The function of the ISR contains six parts. There is the software development system; avoiding obstacle and motion planning system, image system, sensor system, remote supervise system and other systems. We develop a multi sensor-based sensor system in the ISR. We use multiple multisensor fusion algorithms to get an exact decision in the detection subsystem of the sensor system. There is an adaptive fusion method, a rule based method, and a statistical signal method. We demonstrate the remote supervisory system to control the ISR using a direct control mode and a behavior control mode. We think that the man–machine interface in a security robot system must have mobility and convenience. Therefore, we use a touch screen to display the system state, and design a general user interface (GUI) to service the user and visitors. The user can remotely control the appliance using a cell phone through a GSM modem, too. The appliance module can feedback reaction results to the user through a cell phone. Finally, we implement the fire detection system in the intelligent security robot (Chung-Cheng-I). If a fire occurs, the intelligent security robot can find out the fire source using the fire detection system. In intruder detection, we program the same scenario to detect the intruder using the intelligent security robot. The intelligent security robot transmits the message of the detection result to the user using a GSM modem for a fire event or intruder, and transmits the detection result to a client computer through the internet.

Make‐or‐buy: a case study at an Indian automobile company

PurposeThis paper aims to present a strategic framework for make‐or‐buy (MoB) decision‐making process and a case study based on the framework. This framework can be applied to all the scenarios of MoB decision‐making that includes making decisions for new components and reevaluating the decisions for presently in‐sourced or outsourced components.Design/methodology/approachBased on this study of an Indian Automobile Company and review of the literature the paper proposes a strategic framework for MoB decision‐making. Unlike previous academic attempts, where a framework is developed first based on the existing theories followed by illustration through case studies, our approach starts with a case study, the paper then proposes a framework that best suits the company's need. Later the paper discusses the specific features of the framework that makes it applicable to other manufacturing sectors.FindingsThe sourcing decision‐making for any firm is a complex and dynamic process where, after stipulated period firms have to reevaluate their decisions. Existing frameworks treat both fresh and reevaluated decisions alike. It is found that the need for a framework with separate provision for outsourcing decision reevaluation. The paper identifies partial outsourcing as a strategic option to avoid supplier opportunism. It also explicitly suggests the exact decision point where risk evaluation is necessary during MoB decision‐making process.Originality/valueThe proposed framework takes a detailed and critical look at actual outcomes in terms of costs, competences and risk. Three important considerations adopted from the literature and incorporated in the proposed framework, makes it unique: provision for reevaluating the MoB decision, consideration of partial outsourcing as a strategic option other than purely making or buying, identification of decision points where risk evaluation is necessary.

Managerial Optimism and Corporate Investment: Is the CEO Alone Responsible for the Relation?

Why should aggregate investment of large conglomerates depend on personal characteristics of one single person, the CEO? In reality, decision processes are complex. Are personal characteristics of all senior managers together perhaps a better predictor of corporate decisions than the CEOs' characteristics alone? This is the question we tackle in this paper empirically for the case of managerial optimism and corporate investment. In contrast to existing empirical studies we do not only focus on optimism measures of single managers like the CEO or CFO of a firm as investment decisions of firms are usually not made by only one single person. Instead, our optimism measure is based on the insider stock transaction behavior of all senior managers that they have to report to the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority. The main results can be summarized as follows. Managers are optimistic. Managers voluntarily increase their exposure to company specific risk more often than they reduce it, although they should, if anything, reduce their exposure. Furthermore, we find that firms with optimistic managers invest more. Moreover, the investment-cash flow sensitivity is higher for firms with optimistic managers. Consistent with theory, these results are stronger for financially constrained firms. As new insights, we find that optimism of all insiders has also explanatory power when compared to pure CEO optimism and that the higher managerial optimism, the lower the excess value of a company. We also identify moderating variables that determine when the CEO is more relevant for corporate investment (firm size, corporate governance, type of investment). CFO optimism has no explanatory power. These findings show that it is crucial to analyze how the exact decision process works within a firm.

Planning for disasters and responding to catastrophes: error of the third type in disaster policy and planning

This paper states that the public increasingly expects better public sector leadership before, during and after catastrophic disasters than it has seen in the past. The massive numbers of public, non-profit and private organisations involved in catastrophic disasters require extensive ability to have horizontal, as well as vertical, communication, coordination and decision-making capabilities. High performance in response to catastrophic disasters requires an ability to assess and adapt capacity rapidly, restore or enhance disrupted or inadequate communications, utilise uncharacteristically flexible decision making and expand coordination and trust of emergency response organisations. These requirements are superimposed on conventional bureaucratic systems that rely on relatively rigid plans, exact decision protocols and formal relationships that assume uninterrupted communications. Yet, policy makers and policy analysts frequently focus on certain aspects of disaster managements after a significant disaster and commit error of the third type. This paper suggests investing in building bottom-up community capacity in a networked environment.

Surveying on the Biologic Behaviors of Hemiscorpius Lepturus Peters 1861, Scorpion in Laboratory (Khuzestan, Iran) (Scorpions: Hemiscorpiidae)

This descriptive research was conducted so as to find and distinguish the sex of H. lepturus based on 107 dead specimens in the 70% ethyl alcohol and exact decision on their species using a criterion considering all morphological parameters and by the use of stereo microscope. Their biologic behaviors, 50 H. lepturus specimens which were fed and kept alive in capped bottles were studies while their way of shedding and number of newly-born young were also investigated under laboratory conditions in the process. The research revealed that in 107 H. lepturus specimens, 27 specimens (23%) were male and 80 ones (77%) were female. The results gained from 50 scorpions kept in the laboratory showed that only 10 cases (20%) had shed. Duration of emergence varies in each young from 10-20 min and delivery lasts approximately for 4-6 h. The average number of the young born was 24.3 in each delivery. It was concluded that the time of delivery and shedding in H lepturus is definitely fixed during the year and the number ofpectine denticles and length of the tail can be used to differentiate male and female H. lepturus.

Advanced algorithms of motion estimation for an elder at living room using Principal Component Analysis

Objective: Development of telemedicine for an elder has been an important research area in an aging society, and effective Personal Emergency Response System(PERS) can provide exact medical decision and prompt treatment under emergency conditions. Previous studies have been focused on adapting troublesome sensors or passive calling system to monitor the old in their house. However, these previous systems might have limited applications due to its difficulties in usage and restraints in their daily activities, especially in the emergency. Methods: In this study, the real time algorithms using surveillance camera was developed to monitor their pose change, such as emergency and falling motion. To estimate the motion of elder people, this research use a ratio of eigenvectors of the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) technique. Results: In this system, no additional motion sensors or devices were applied to the object and it can be automatically controlled and monitor the old from a distance. It was found that this system can successfully monitor the old in living room regardless of surveillance camera angles and a silhouette size depending camera distance as using image processing and PCA. Conclusion: This algorithm was validated by experiments in a living room and this technique can be applicable to home monitoring and further applications. (Journal of Korean Society of Medical Informatics 13-3, 299-308, 2007)

Development of fuzzy process control charts and fuzzy unnatural pattern analyses

Many problems in scientific investigation generate nonprecise data incorporating nonstatistical uncertainty. A nonprecise observation of a quantitative variable can be described by a special type of membership function defined on the set of all real numbers called a fuzzy number or a fuzzy interval. A methodology for constructing control charts is proposed when the quality characteristics are vague, uncertain, incomplete or linguistically defined. Fuzzy set theory is an inevitable tool for fuzzy control charts as well as other applications subjected to uncertainty in any form. The vagueness can be handled by transforming incomplete or nonprecise quantities to their representative scalar values such as fuzzy mode, fuzzy midrange, fuzzy median, or fuzzy average. Then crisp methods may be applied to those representative values for control chart decisions as “in control” or “out of control”. Transforming the vague data by using one of the transformation methods may result in biased decisions since the information given by the vague data is lost by the transformation. Such data needs to be investigated as fuzzy sets without transformation, and the decisions based on the vague data should not be concluded with an exact decision. A “direct fuzzy approach (DFA)” to fuzzy control charts for attributes under vague data is proposed without using any transformation method. Then, the unnatural patterns for the proposed fuzzy control charts are defined using the probabilities of fuzzy events.

Comparison of approximate formulas for decision levels and detection limits for paired counting with the exact results

The exact probability density function for paired counting can be expressed in terms of modified Bessel functions of integral order when the expected blank count is known. Exact decision levels and detection limits can be computed in a straightforward manner. For many applications perturbing half-integer corrections to Gaussian distributions yields satisfactory results for decision levels. When there is concern about the uncertainty for the expected value of the blank count, a way to bound the errors of both types using confidence intervals for the expected blank count is discussed.

Computations that require higher than double precision for robust and exact decision making

Consider the computation of deciding relative orientations of objects undergoing multiple translations and rotations. Such an orientation test involves the computation of expressions based on arithmetic operations, square roots and trigonometric functions. The computation of signs of such expressions using double precision floating-point arithmetic in modern computers may result in errors. In this article we demonstrate the existence of examples where double precision is not sufficient to compute the correct sign of an expression. We consider (i) simple expressions involving only the four basic arithmetic operations, (ii) expressions involving the square-root function and (iii) expressions representing orientation tests in two- and three-dimensions involving objects undergoing arbitrary rotations by angles given in radians, thereby requiring the computation of trigonometric functions. We develop a system that uses requisite high precision for computing the correct sign of such expressions. The system uses our floating-point filter called L-filter and the bigfloat extended precision package in LEDA (Library of Efficient Data Types and Algorithms).

Multisensor process performance assessment through use of autoregressive modeling and feature maps

Intelligent building can provide safety, convenience, efficiency and entertainment for life in the 21st century. The most importance role of the intelligent building is the security system. We develop a multi sensor-based intelligent security robot (ISR) that is widely employed in intelligent buildings. The intelligent security robot can detect abnormal and dangerous situations and notify users. The robot has the shape of cylinder and its diameter, height, and weight are 50 cm, 130 cm and 100 kg respectively. The function of the ISR contains six parts. There is the software development system; avoiding obstacle and motion planning system, image system, sensor system, remote supervise system and other systems. We develop a multi sensor-based sensor system in the ISR. We use multiple multisensor fusion algorithms to get an exact decision in the detection subsystem of the sensor system. There is an adaptive fusion method, a rule based method, and a statistical signal method. We demonstrate the remote supervisory system to control the ISR using a direct control mode and a behavior control mode. We think that the man–machine interface in a security robot system must have mobility and convenience. Therefore, we use a touch screen to display the system state, and design a general user interface (GUI) to service the user and visitors. The user can remotely control the appliance using a cell phone through a GSM modem, too. The appliance module can feedback reaction results to the user through a cell phone. Finally, we implement the fire detection system in the intelligent security robot (Chung-Cheng-I). If a fire occurs, the intelligent security robot can find out the fire source using the fire detection system. In intruder detection, we program the same scenario to detect the intruder using the intelligent security robot. The intelligent security robot transmits the message of the detection result to the user using a GSM modem for a fire event or intruder, and transmits the detection result to a client computer through the internet.

Development of Communication Aid using Event-Related Potential P300 (Application of P300 to Intention Judgement System)

We examine a method of decision judgment using Event-Related Potential P300 in Communication Aid (CA) for those who have motor neuron disease, ALS (Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis). Taking a practical situation into consideration, we try to extract the signal about P300 under not a shield but a usual room and by a single trial. We propose to evaluate the exact decision of the user who may hope something for someone. Introducing an improved Oddball Paradigm and appropriate moving averaging, we can realize the extraction of the wave of P300 under a usual room and by a single trial. Applying a modeled waveform with quantitative conditions used in clinical diagnosis, we can obtain successful results with a higher ratio in judgment about users' decision.

Calcineurin, Mitochondrial Membrane Potential, and Cardiomyocyte Apoptosis

Mitochondria comprise ≈30% of the total intracellular volume within a mammalian cardiomyocyte.1 2 Not surprisingly, subtle alterations in mitochondrial function or membrane potential can have a dramatic influence on cardiomyocyte energy production and, ultimately, the health of an individual cell. Indeed, cellular injury or stress stimulation directly elicits alterations in mitochondrial architecture, membrane potential, and oxidative capacity, which are associated with an irreversible loss of mitochondrial matrix contents and integral membrane protein constituents such as cytochrome c oxidase.3 The release of cytochrome c and/or mitochondrial permeability transition directly mediates cellular apoptosis through calcium-sensitive proteases or through coupling proteins that coordinate the activation of caspases and DNA fragmentation enzymes.3 Given the high intracellular content of mitochondria in cardiomyocytes and the unabated requirement for high-energy phosphate carriers to maintain ionic gradients and active force generation, coordinated disturbances in mitochondrial function can dramatically affect cell survival. Recent investigation has suggested an emerging paradigm whereby stress-responsive intracellular signaling pathways directly and indirectly influence mitochondrial membrane potential, oxidative capacity, and the coupling of apoptosis initiating factors. For example, stress-responsive signaling through the c-Jun N-terminal kinases (JNKs) has been shown to initiate apoptosis in certain cell types by directly influencing proteins within the mitochondrial membranes.4 In addition, increased expression of the mitochondrial stabilizing Bcl proteins can be transcriptionally regulated through stress-responsive signaling pathways, which subsequently antagonize mitochondrial dysfunction and cytochrome c release.5 Activation of the intracellular kinase Akt also directly antagonizes mitochondrial-directed apoptosis by phosphorylating the mitochondrial destabilizing protein Bad, reducing cytochrome c release and caspase activation.6 Lastly, activation of nuclear factor-κB (NF-κB) signaling induces expression of stress-adaptive proteins such as Bcl-2, antioxidants, and calcium-regulating proteins.7 In general, signaling pathways such as the stress- and mitogen-activated protein kinases (SAPKs and MAPKs), protein kinase C (PKC), Akt, NF-κB, and the …

Reducing Polypharmacy

Reducing Polypharmacy

On a Heuristic Inventory-replenishment Rule for Items with a Linearly Increasing Demand Incorporating Shortages

A heuristic decision rule is derived for the replenishment of items with a linearly increasing demand rate over a finite planning horizon during which shortages are allowed. When compared with the exact decision rule, the heuristic is found to incur negligible cost penalty for the numerical example which is given to illustrate the use of the heuristic.

Economic interpretation of models for the replacement of machines

The purpose of this article is to give an economic interpretation of results derived from mathematical replacement models. It is based on results found in the literature. The conclusion is that the moment of replacement is always determined by the equality of marginal replacement costs to the marginal costs of postponed replacement. This extension gives the models practical applicability by providing an exact decision criterion and a concrete interpretation. In other words: practical decisions are given a theoretical foundation.