Ex-post Assessment Research Articles

An analysis of ex-post assessment on Korea-Chile Free Trade Agreement with respect to the agricultural sector

As the existing FTAs’ implementations are being accelerated, ex-post assessments, such as tariff schedules and agricultural trade analyses results, have been emerging as important national issues for the agricultural sector. Korea-Chile FTA is the first FTA in Korea, and more than ten years have passed since April 2004. It will be necessary to measure the impacts of the agreement on the domestic agricultural industry by analyzing concessions made on traded items of farm products on prices, agricultural trade, and so on. The purpose of this study is to prepare for the request for ex-post assessments on the agricultural sector by trade negotiation procedural law. Additionally, by providing policy direction for agricultural policy segments requiring amendments and supplements through an ex-post assessment, we can more objectively evaluate the conflicting arguments between the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors. Current evaluation methods about ex-post impact assessment of FTA are generally comparison analysis on the change of trade balance before and after FTA implementation. However, this simple comparison analysis cannot be said to pure FTA effects and objective, tightening economic impact assessment of the FTA because of all combined situations such as effects of exchange rates, international macroeconomic changes, climate change, and the occurrence of pests. This research attempts to use dynamic analysis as its ex-post assessment methodology and is expected to contribute to future policy evaluation.

From Metaphors to Formalism: A Heuristic Approach to Holistic Assessments of Ecosystem Health.

Environmental policies employ metaphoric objectives such as ecosystem health, resilience and sustainable provision of ecosystem services, which influence corresponding sustainability assessments by means of normative settings such as assumptions on system description, indicator selection, aggregation of information and target setting. A heuristic approach is developed for sustainability assessments to avoid ambiguity and applications to the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) and OSPAR assessments are presented. For MSFD, nineteen different assessment procedures have been proposed, but at present no agreed assessment procedure is available. The heuristic assessment framework is a functional-holistic approach comprising an ex-ante/ex-post assessment framework with specifically defined normative and systemic dimensions (EAEPNS). The outer normative dimension defines the ex-ante/ex-post framework, of which the latter branch delivers one measure of ecosystem health based on indicators and the former allows to account for the multi-dimensional nature of sustainability (social, economic, ecological) in terms of modeling approaches. For MSFD, the ex-ante/ex-post framework replaces the current distinction between assessments based on pressure and state descriptors. The ex-ante and the ex-post branch each comprise an inner normative and a systemic dimension. The inner normative dimension in the ex-post branch considers additive utility models and likelihood functions to standardize variables normalized with Bayesian modeling. Likelihood functions allow precautionary target setting. The ex-post systemic dimension considers a posteriori indicator selection by means of analysis of indicator space to avoid redundant indicator information as opposed to a priori indicator selection in deconstructive-structural approaches. Indicator information is expressed in terms of ecosystem variability by means of multivariate analysis procedures. The application to the OSPAR assessment for the southern North Sea showed, that with the selected 36 indicators 48% of ecosystem variability could be explained. Tools for the ex-ante branch are risk and ecosystem models with the capability to analyze trade-offs, generating model output for each of the pressure chains to allow for a phasing-out of human pressures. The Bayesian measure of ecosystem health is sensitive to trends in environmental features, but robust to ecosystem variability in line with state space models. The combination of the ex-ante and ex-post branch is essential to evaluate ecosystem resilience and to adopt adaptive management. Based on requirements of the heuristic approach, three possible developments of this concept can be envisioned, i.e. a governance driven approach built upon participatory processes, a science driven functional-holistic approach requiring extensive monitoring to analyze complete ecosystem variability, and an approach with emphasis on ex-ante modeling and ex-post assessment of well-studied subsystems.

Supporting the Collaborative Construction of a Shared Understanding About Work with a Guided Conceptual Modeling Technique

The existence of a shared understanding about a collaborative work process among all involved actors is one prerequisite for its successful implementation. The development of a shared understanding is facilitated when the actors make explicit their individual views and create externalizations that can be used as subjects of discourse. Instruments supporting externalization and discourse about collaborative work need to provide adequate forms of representation and guide actors in implementing these reflection and alignment processes. Appropriate guidance can facilitate the construction of a shared understanding for actors not accustomed to such processes. This paper introduces a methodology that offers structural and procedural guidance by adopting diagrammatical conceptual modeling techniques. This methodology has been evaluated extensively in a multiple case study. A combination of interaction analysis of the modeling process and ex-post assessment of the actors’ perceptions has been used to evaluate the adequacy of the proposed methodology with respect to the pursued objectives. The results confirm that the modeling methodology and the proposed guidance measures appropriately support the process of constructing a shared understanding about collaborative work processes.

Urban Freight Transport Planning towards Green Goals: Synthetic Environmental Evidence from Tested Results

This paper reviews the ex-post assessment of city logistics measures implemented in some European cities and, in a “what if” framework, proposes an analysis of tested environmental effects which may be useful in defining city logistics scenarios to be evaluated ex ante by simulation models. The analysis is performed in relation to the goals of environmental sustainability to pursue and the main characteristics of the cities in question (i.e., population and density). The paper aims to provide a tool that could be used in an ex-ante assessment methodology to identify a priori which measures (or set of measures) could best work in a specific city with respect to the environmental sustainability goals to pursue. Future scenarios can, thus, be readily defined and subsequently assessed by simulation tools in order to verify whether they meet the planned objectives. Although all measures can produce considerable environmental effects, the study shows that the choice of their implementation should be driven by the type of pollutant to detect.

Directive 2008/96/EC On Road Infrastructure Safety Management: An Ex-post Assessment 5 years After its Adoption

This research presents the ex-post evaluation results linked to the implementation of Directive 2008/96/EC on road infrastructure safety management (RISM) five years after its adoption. The Directive has led to the establishment of different procedures (Road Safety Impact Assessment, Road Safety Audits, Road Safety Inspections, Network Safety Management) in all Member States, thus increasing their use in comparison with the pre-Directive context. The ex-post evaluation seeks to gauge the degree to which the Directive has been put into practice across the EU countries and identify the main impacts generated by considering a range of evaluation criteria (Implementation, Relevance, Effectiveness, Sustainability, Coherence, Utility, Efficiency and EU added value). The outcomes from the evaluation confirm that Directive 2008/96/EC has encouraged a generalized use of RISM procedures which are now established in all Member States, are based on a minimal set of compulsory rules in the management of the TEN-T roads (in many cases also applied to non-TEN-T roads) and are implemented within a harmonized legislative framework. The main weakness of this Directive relates, conversely, to the limited scope of its application as it only applies to the TEN-T road network.

Going more private and sustainable: ex-post assessment of armenian water utilities

Recent worldwide changes in water policies emphasize the role of the private sector in the provision of water services with the expectation of market forces to redress public provision failures and introduce innovative approaches for promoting sustainability. Armenia has experienced unprecedented rapid and mass privatization in the water sector: in a decade from zero reaching 63% of the population, which records the third highest level in Europe. The paper examines the impacts of privatization on sustainability performance of all water utilities. Ex-post benchmarking is employed for assessing relative and absolute sustainability measures and developing scores for utility sustainability ranking. The paper focuses on utility performance in time and scale dimensions and on the international level. The paper shows that transition to the public–private partnerships positively influenced the sustainability performance of all utilities. All utilities have improved their relative to pre-privatization performance. Considerable progress was seen in social followed by environmental performance. Armenian utilities also succeed in performing well internationally. The paper concludes that though water privatization may lead to sustainability of utility performance, the scale of impact may depend on the initial state of the enterprise and the local context. Moreover, after the low-hanging fruits are reached at the first stage, more efforts will be required for enhancing long-term sustainability and effectiveness, consistent with social and environmental needs.

Using causal maps to support ex-post assessment of social impacts of dams

This paper presents the results of an ex-post assessment of two important dams in Brazil. The study follows the principles of Social Impact Management, which offer a suitable framework for analyzing the complex social transformations triggered by hydroelectric dams. In the implementation of this approach, participative causal maps were used to identify the ex-post social impacts of the Porto Primavera and Rosana dams on the community of Porto Rico, located along the High Paraná River. We found that in the operation of dams there are intermediate causes of a political nature, stemming from decisions based on values and interests not determined by neutral, exclusively technical reasons; and this insight opens up an area of action for managing the negative impacts of dams.

An ex-post assessment of the regulation on the energy performance of buildings in Greece and the Netherlands—a cross-country comparison

Hastening the energy saving rate in the built environment is a common goal of both the Dutch and the Greek government within the context of EU2020 strategy. In view of the recast Directive on the Energy Performance of Buildings (EPBD) (2010/31/EC), considered to be an important route towards exploiting the energy saving potential of the building stock, this paper conducted an ex-post assessment of the national Regulations on Energy Performance of Buildings (REPB) including energy performance certificates (EPCs), as transposed and implemented in Greece and the Netherlands. Results suggest that the implementation of the new EPBD requirements is still at an early stage for both countries. Similarities in the design of the two national schemes are demonstrated regarding quality assurance systems, while enforcement regimes show contrasting approaches with the Dutch EPCs operating at a voluntary basis. Both Dutch and the Greek scheme present a similar case regarding their low implementability, attributed though to dissimilar causes and external influences. Policy incoherence is another common characteristic traced between the two national yet different administration styles across governance levels, lacking of policy integration and coordination. The evaluation framework sheds some light on the understanding of the policy outcomes and design characteristics of the transposed REPB schemes in relation to the theory behind their implementation, while dealing with regulatory elements verified by observations and experiences, which need to be considered.

Ex-post assessment of China's industrial energy efficiency policies during the 11th Five-Year Plan

China implemented a package of policies during the 11th Five-Year Plan (2006–2010) to improve industrial energy efficiency. This assessment provides a methodology that establishes a causal relationship between policy implementation and energy conservation effects. To enhance the confidence in the research findings, this assessment applies two distinctive and independent approaches: one top-down and the other bottom-up. This assessment finds that industrial energy efficiency policies collectively achieved energy savings of 322Mtce (9.4EJ) against the baseline scenario. This accounted for 59% of the sector's total energy savings from 2006 to 2010. The remaining energy savings were realised through autonomous technology improvement (33%) and sector-level structural shift (8%). Correspondingly, cumulative avoided CO2 emissions realised through energy efficiency policies amounted to 760 million tons. This assessment concludes that industrial energy efficiency policies were effective in realising energy conservation targets, but energy conservation effects were not achieved in a cost-effective way. Command and control measures were dominantly implemented, with economic incentives and informational measures taking a complementary role; while market based instruments did not play an important role. As China is planning on implementing a nationwide emissions trading scheme, special attention needs to be paid to policy interaction and coordination.

Assessing the effects of regional payment for watershed services program on water quality using an intervention analysis model

Much attention has been recently paid to ex-post assessments of socioeconomic and environmental benefits of payment for ecosystem services (PES) programs on poverty reduction, water quality, and forest protection. To evaluate the effects of a regional PES program on water quality, we selected chemical oxygen demand (COD) and ammonia–nitrogen (NH3–N) as indicators of water quality. Statistical methods and an intervention analysis model were employed to assess whether the PES program produced substantial changes in water quality at 10 water-quality sampling stations in the Shaying River watershed, China during 2006–2011. Statistical results from paired-sample t-tests and box plots of COD and NH3–N concentrations at the 10 stations showed that the PES program has played a positive role in improving water quality and reducing trans-boundary water pollution in the Shaying River watershed. Using the intervention analysis model, we quantitatively evaluated the effects of the intervention policy, i.e., the watershed PES program, on water quality at the 10 stations. The results suggest that this method could be used to assess the environmental benefits of watershed or water-related PES programs, such as improvements in water quality, seasonal flow regulation, erosion and sedimentation, and aquatic habitat.

Germany�s Nuclear Phase Out - A Survey of the Impact since 2011 and Outlook to 2023

In this paper we analyze the effects of the German nuclear phase out, focusing on the seven nuclear power plants affected by the March 2011 moratorium, and continuing through the final phase out of the last plant in 2022. We provide an ex-post assessment of model analyses on the impact of the nuclear moratorium presented by the modelling community, in 2011 or shortly after These are then compared with the real-world developments over 2011-2013. Amongst others, modelers were right to forecast a modest effect on electricity prices, a reduction of the net export surplus, and a slight increase of fossil and renewable electricity generation. Overall, the impacts were modest, and the phase out has proceeded gently, without any major disturbance. We also provide recent modelling results on the final phase out of all German nuclear power plants by 2023. Given the expected conventional expansions and a continuous rise in renewable electricity generation, we expect the nuclear phase out to proceed smoothly, and no capacity shortages to occur.

A methodology for ex-post assessment of social impacts of an affordable housing project

Affordable housing projects are becoming increasingly important in China, and they have remarkable social impacts. Yet, there is lack of appropriate methodologies for ex-post assessment of those social impacts. This knowledge gap will be filled in by this paper through proposing a new methodology, containing 24 assessment indicators in 3 categories, i.e. socio- economic effects (SE), mutual adaptabilities (MA) and social risks (SR). Considering inter- relationships among categories and indicators, the Analytic Network Process (ANP) method is adopted to determine the respective weight of each category and indicator, followed by the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation–based assessment model. Then, the proposed methodology is exemplified with an affordable housing project in Nanjing city of Eastern China. The results show that the project has produced quite positive social impacts, and reveal the improvement directions at category level, where SE should be the emphasis and SR has the largest potentiality. At indicator level, reducing crime cases around the studied project, providing better communication and water supply facilities of the studied project and improving the outbound public transport of the studied project are pressing issues. Finally, this paper is concluded with possible future works.

Robust trading rule selection and forecasting accuracy

Trading rules performing well on a given data set seldom lead to promising out-of-sample results, a problem which is a consequence of the in-sample data snooping bias. Efforts to justify the selection of trading rules by assessing the out-of-sample performance will not really remedy this predicament either, because they are prone to be trapped in what is known as the out-of-sample data-snooping bias. Our approach to curb the data-snooping bias consists of constructing a framework for trading rule selection using a-priori robustness strategies, where robustness is gauged on the basis of time-series bootstrap and multi-objective criteria. This approach focuses thus on building robustness into the process of trading rule selection at an early stage, rather than on an ex-post assessment of trading rule fitness. Intra-day FX market data constitute the empirical basis of the proposed investigations. Trading rules are selected from a wide universe created by evolutionary computation tools. The authors show evidence of the benefit of this approach in terms of indirect forecasting accuracy when investing in FX markets.

Challenges of Implementing à la Mode Transport Projects

Politicians, consultants, and researchers often look at successful transport and urban transformation projects in cities in developing countries and assume that these may be an appropriate solution for similar cities. In reality, customizing such projects for a city-specific context is a difficult challenge that does not always end well, for example, because of poor technical and financial capacity of transport institutions, scarce information on travel demand behavior during the planning stage, private companies operating routes with a certain degree of informality, and poor political commitment. The authors reviewed the experience of implementing bus rapid transit systems in five cities in Colombia that followed the steps of the successful Transmilenio in Bogotá. Most projects had cost overruns and lower demand and therefore performed worse than expected in ex-post assessments. Competition from traditional and private transport and institutional capacity at the local level were key problems to be addressed. The authors also reviewed the experience of cable cars, the new à la mode project, which was promoted in a number of developing cities such as Cali and Soacha after the success of the Metrocable in Medellín. Cable cars could contribute to equity in cities, but these contributions would be extremely limited if the project did not inject the urban environment with complementary investments. Transferring successful transportation projects to new areas or to other cities is an important, difficult challenge. Key success factors must be considered to implement transport solutions successfully in different contexts.

Building for a better hospital. Value-adding management & design of healthcare real estate

Building for a better hospital. Value-adding management & design of healthcare real estate

Building for a better hospital. Value-adding management & design of healthcare real estate

Building for a better hospital. Value-adding management & design of healthcare real estate

Building for a better hospital. Value-adding management & design of healthcare real estate

Building for a better hospital. Value-adding management & design of healthcare real estate

The influence of the Energy Performance Certificate: The Dutch case

All European Union Member States require an Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) when buildings are constructed, sold and rented. At its introduction the EPC was considered a pioneering instrument, one that would help overcome an information deficit hindering consumer interest in energy efficient dwellings. Now that the EPC has been implemented for several years it is possible to examine its impact. This research draws on data from ex-ante and ex-post assessments of the EPC in a number of countries and presents the results of a survey of Dutch private dwelling purchasers. This survey was based on two sample populations, one received an EPC during property transaction and another did not. Differences were sought between the two samples in a number of areas relating to the adoption of energy efficiency measures. Results show that many projections about the impact of the EPC have fallen short. The EPC was found to have a weak influence, especially pre-purchase. The potential of the EPC in driving energy efficiency improvement in the existing stock is doubted especially if it continues to act independent from a mix of instruments designed to tackle multiple barriers. It is argued that the energy saving potential of existing dwellings, applauded in climate change policy, will remain unexploited if it continues to be assessed subjectively by householders.

The Use of Impact Assessments and the Quality of Legislation

In the instrumentalist concept of law, the main function of legislation is the realisation of policy aims. This concept of legal instrumentalism seems to be the predominant view as adopted by policy makers and, accordingly, many believe that legislation is indeed just one of the tools for realising public policy aims. In that perspective, ex-post or ex-ante impact assessments are predominantly being used to assess the desired impact of legislation on society. The focus on the function of law as a mechanism through which public policy is to be enforced on society, however, can lead to the notion that this is the most important function of law, and that the quality of legislation is best to be determined in terms of its compliance with these policy aims. In relation to this, the question arises: can the quality and desirability of legislation be primarily determined by its ability to achieve a public policy aim or should other factors be taken into account as well? The answer to this question depends on which types of functions one attributes to legislation.It is the main aim of this article to analyze the different functions of law in relation to social problem solving. It is argued that most impact assessments provide a rather limited view on the quality of legislation in the sense that they often only assess legislation in terms of it being able to realise policy objectives. Although this undoubtedly enhances the effectiveness of legislation in terms of realising these objectives, the effectiveness of legislation in the light of the other functions of law potentially decreases. This can be illustrated by recently enacted legislation based on impact assessments.

Benefits, costs, and livelihood implications of a regional payment for ecosystem service program

Despite broad interest in using payment for ecosystem services to promote changes in the use of natural capital, there are few expost assessments of impacts of payment for ecosystem services programs on ecosystem service provision, program cost, and changes in livelihoods resulting from program participation. In this paper, we evaluate the Paddy Land-to-Dry Land (PLDL) program in Beijing, China, and associated changes in service providers' livelihood activities. The PLDL is a land use conversion program that aims to protect water quality and quantity for the only surface water reservoir that serves Beijing, China's capital city with nearly 20 million residents. Our analysis integrates hydrologic data with household survey data and shows that the PLDL generates benefits of improved water quantity and quality that exceed the costs of reduced agricultural output. The PLDL has an overall benefit-cost ratio of 1.5, and both downstream beneficiaries and upstream providers gain from the program. Household data show that changes in livelihood activities may offset some of the desired effects of the program through increased expenditures on agricultural fertilizers. Overall, however, reductions in fertilizer leaching from land use change dominate so that the program still has a positive net impact on water quality. This program is a successful example of water users paying upstream landholders to improve water quantity and quality through land use change. Program evaluation also highlights the importance of considering behavioral changes by program participants.