Ex-ante Impact Research Articles

Technology is never neutral: Robodebt and a human rights analysis of automated decision-making on welfare recipients

ABSTRACT Government agencies have embraced automated decision-making systems, particularly in welfare, despite the risk of mass-replicated erroneous decision-making creating systemic issues. This article uses Robodebt as an Australian case study with global ramifications to argue that government agency use of erroneous automated decision-making systems in welfare raises human rights concerns. First, this article examines the shortcomings of administrative law in a digital welfare context. Second, the article closely analyses the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights and International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights and identifies several human rights concerns raised by Robodebt. This article then examines ex-ante impact assessment models and concludes by recommending an obligation on government agencies to conduct a human rights impact assessment before deploying an automated decision-making system. By demonstrating the human rights implications on welfare recipients arising from automated decision-making systems, this article justifies the use of international human rights law as a complementary framework.

Modeling the implications of policy reforms on pesticide risk for Switzerland

Growing public awareness of the negative effects of pesticides on the environment, ecosystems, and human health has led governments to set targets for reducing pesticide risk. Switzerland introduced in 2023 two new policy measures to reduce pesticide risk by 50 % by 2027: (1) voluntary direct payment programs supporting pesticide-reduced and pesticide-free but non-organic cropping systems for most crops on arable land, and (2) restrictions of harmful pesticides for farmers managing under Swiss cross-compliance standards. This study aims to (1) develop a method to assess pesticide risk on a national scale and (2) carry out an ex-ante impact assessment to predict whether these policies can effectively reduce pesticide risks in Switzerland. Therefore, we introduced crop-specific pesticide quantities and pesticide risk scores into a sample of 1907 bio-economic farm optimization models. The models were used to predict farmers' adoption decisions regarding voluntary direct payment programs from 2019 to 2030. By combining the bio-economic farm optimization models with an agent-based modeling approach, we assessed the evolution of pesticide-related risks at the national level. Simulations for pesticide risk from 2019 to 2022 reflected the observed pesticide risk monitored by the Swiss government. In surface waters and semi-natural habitats, achieving the target depends on reducing pyrethroids, a class of insecticides with high-risk potential. Further, we highlight significant uncertainty in projecting the risk potential for surface waters and semi-natural habitats due to uncertainty about the amounts of pyrethroid used for different crops. The results underline the need for comprehensive datasets on pesticide use in Switzerland.

Modeling stock, material and environmental impacts of circular economy product policies. Trade-offs between early replacement and repair of electric motors

New modeling challenges are accompanying the shift in EU product policy toward an increased focus on circular economy aspects. Combined material flow analysis and life cycle assessment can play an important role in assessing the impact of such policies. A flexible model has been developed that is suitable for the ex-ante impact assessment of the material flows and environmental impacts of a range of circular economy product policies, extending an established approach. The model uses a layered approach, in which material and environmental impacts are derived from product flows via a product database that defines physical properties for product variants. Combined with a stock model, the impact of policy interventions on the whole market can be assessed over time and per life cycle stage. We apply this model in a theoretical case study on electric motors, which compares early replacement of inefficient motors and motor repair with a base case.

Creating and observing impacts in transdisciplinary projects ‐ Insights from the social design lab

Thorough yet feasible impact assessment concerns projects of all kinds, including transdisciplinary real-world labs. In many cases, ex-post impact analysis for accountability and reporting is the goal. However, the real-time impact observation methodology developed by the social design lab seeks to identify impacts, potentials, and changing needs during the course of the project, complemented by ex-ante and ex-post analysis. This allows for learning and prompt iteration of the research/project design.In this article, we reflect on approaches for creating and observing impact in transdisciplinary projects. Based on the insights from the work of the social design lab (sdl), we describe the demands for impact observation in a transdisciplinary project context ‐ enable strategic project iteration through real-time observation of achievements, challenges and potential, learn about impact patterns and record intangible forms of impact ‐ which created the need for developing a new methodology. We therefore outline the main elements of our impact observation methodology: ex-ante impact orientation, impact observation and reflection throughout the process as well as ex-post analysis. The sdl’s experience has shown that integrating impact observation into daily work is time-consuming but worthwhile. For us, impact observation is a central research tool for identifying social transformation and its potential, to account for organisations’ own activities and for supporting internal learning and project management processes.

Participatory ex-ante impact assessment for interactive research and development in agriculture and food systems

ABSTRACT Drawing upon literature from both impact assessment of development projects and agricultural research, the aim of this article is to analyse the pilot testing of a new multi-dimensional assessment framework for defining and evaluating the societal impact of agricultural research and corresponding education. The research approach involves an action research effort of pilot testing in three case studies from three different countries. The framework assumes a systems view, understands impact as socially embedded, and adopts the concepts of contribution and productive interactions rather than cause-and-effect attribution. The emerging experiences include developing both project-specific and universal indicators; gauging impacts at different levels and sustainability dimensions; handling the issues of attribution and time frame; and the role of stakeholder involvement. The results have the potential to support the development of a new role for impact assessment, by enabling principal actors in research and higher education institutions to take responsibility for contributing to concrete and demonstrable sustainability changes in society.

Can crop production intensification through irrigation be sustainable? An ex-ante impact study of the south-central coastal zone of Bangladesh

In Bangladesh’s south-central coastal zone, there is considerable potential to intensify crop production by growing dry winter season ‘Boro’ rice, maize, wheat, pulses and oilseeds using irrigation from southward flowing and predominantly freshwater rivers. However, the impacts of surface water withdrawal for sustained irrigation and its safe operating space remain unclear. We used field measurements and simulation modeling to investigate the effects of irrigation water withdrawal for Boro rice–the most water-consumptive crop–on river water flow and salinity under different climate change and river flow scenarios. Under the baseline conditions, about 250,000 ha could potentially be irrigated with river water that has salinity levels below 2 dS/m. The impact on river water salinity would be minimal, and only between 0.71 to 1.12% of the cropland would shift from the 0–2 dS/m class to higher salinity levels. Similarly, for the moderate climate change scenario (RCP 4.5) that forecasts a sea level rise of 22 cm in 2050, there would be a minor change in water flow and salinity. Only under the extreme climate change scenario (RCP 8.5), resulting in a sea level rise of 43 cm by 2050 and low flow conditions that are exceeded in 90% of the cases, the 2 dS/m isohaline would move landward by 64 to 105 km in March and April for the Tentulia and Buriswar Rivers. This would expose an additional 36.6% of potentially irrigable cropland to salinity levels of 2 to 4 dS/m. However, Boro rice will already be well established by that time and can tolerate greater levels of salinity. We conclude that there is considerable scope to expand irrigated crop production without negatively exposing the cropland and rivers to detrimental salinization levels while preserving the ecosystem services of the rivers.

Creating conditions for sustainability transformation through transformative governance – The case of plastic food packaging in Finland

Transformative governance is an emerging approach to addressing major sustainability challenges. Despite the mounting research on this topic, there is still limited understanding on how to create conditions for transformation in practice. Through an analytical frame of transformative governance, in this qualitative case study we investigate how policies and governance in Finland have created conditions for sustainability transformation in food packaging, a key source of plastics pollution, and how the joint implementation of different transformative approaches affects their power to induce systemic change. Our results, based on policy mapping and stakeholder interviews, show that applying principles of transformative governance is necessary but not yet effective enough for creating conditions that encourage and motivate key actors to advance in sustainability transformation. Joint implementation of different transformative approaches and modes of governance can be beneficial, but it is also challenging and may in the worst case even weaken the transformative power and slow down progress. The current governance has fostered packaging waste recycling but does not effectively solve the root cause of unsustainability: mounting consumption of single-use packaging, despite current policy targets and active use of transformative approaches. To reduce packaging consumption and create favourable conditions for packaging reuse, more emphasis is needed on transformative innovation policies, as well as setting more ambitious and proactive measures such as implementing tighter legislation and carrying out ex-ante impact evaluations when designing new policies and regulation. Integrative governance should also be strengthened to improve directionality and policy coherence.

The governance of regional innovation policy and its economic implications

This paper provides insights on the potential macroeconomic impact of the governance of the European innovation policy called Smart Specialisation. We use original empirical data on the implementation of the policy, which is funded through a dedicated financial envelope of the 2014–2020 EU cohesion policy, in a spatial macroeconomic modelling framework capable of gauging the general equilibrium effects of varying degrees of governance quality. Our contribution aims at narrowing the gap between the abstraction of ex-ante impact assessment exercises based on macroeconomic simulations and the reality of how policy interventions may take place. By using data for all Italian NUTS 2 regions, we find that the measured quality of Smart Specialisation governance could increase the pure investment-related impact of the policy by up to 40 percent. At the same time, we estimate that further potential GDP gains—in the order of an additional 40–50 percent over what was achieved with the observed levels of governance—would not materialise because of the comparatively low quality of governance in some regions.

Ex-Ante Evaluation of the Vietnam – UAE CEPA Impact on Vietnam’s Exports of Garments to the UAE

Using the SMART model, this paper aims at examining the ex-ante impact of the Vietnam – United Arab Emirates Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (Vietnam – UAE CEPA), on Vietnam’s garment exports, which is still under negotiation. Two scenarios are developed in accordance with the UAE’s trade liberalization whose focus is on Asian countries including Vietnam. A positive effect of the assumed Vietnam – UAE CEPA on Vietnam’s exports are found in two scenarios. However, the UAE’s deeper engagement with other countries would cause a remarkable decrease in the export turnover of Vietnam’s commodities, leading to some short-term and long-term recommendations of the author to promote Vietnam’s export of garments to the UAE.

Mapping the effect of antimicrobial resistance in poultry production in Senegal: an integrated system dynamics and network analysis approach.

The impact of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) extends beyond the farm-level to other stakeholders warranting the need for a collaborative approach to combat AMR while optimising production objectives and safeguarding human health. This study maps out the effect of AMR originating from poultry production in Senegal and highlights the entry points for interventions from stakeholders' perspectives. A causal loop diagram (CLD) was developed following a group model building procedure with 20 stakeholders and integrated with network analysis by translating the CLD into an unweighted directed network. Results indicate that with an eigenvector centrality of 1, 0.85, and 0.74, the production cost, on-farm profit, and on-farm productivity, respectively are the most ranked influential variables driving the complexity of AMR in the poultry production system. Two reinforcing feedback loops highlight the dual benefits of improving on-farm productivity and increasing on-farm profit. However, one balancing feedback loop that revolves around the causal link between producers' investment in qualified human resource personnel to ensure good farm management practices underline the financial implication of producers' investment decisions. The findings provide precursory groundings for the development of a quantitative SD model, the formulation of intervention scenarios and ex-ante impact assessment of the cost-effectiveness of the interventions.

How the ongoing armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine can affect the global wheat food security?

Introduction: This study examines the potential impacts of Russia-Ukraine armed conflict on the consumption and trade of wheat and wheat food security. Russia and Ukraine jointly supply more than one-fourth of total wheat in the international market. Because of the ongoing armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine, wheat export from these two countries is heavily disrupted. Applying an ex-ante impact assessment procedure, this study examines the potential impacts of Russia-Ukraine armed conflict on the consumption and trade of wheat and wheat food security.Methods: This study considered 115 countries and grouped them based on their geographic location. The sampled countries are grouped as: South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, North Africa, Middle East, and rest of the world. Simulation results are presented by the geographic location of the sampled countries. To assess the potential impacts of the ongoing Ukraine-Russia armed conflict on wheat food security in the sampled countries, this study mainly sourced data from FAOSTAT. This study first calculates the share of wheat consumption imported from Russia and Ukraine. Then, this study calculates the daily total calorie and protein intake exclusively from the imported wheat from Russia and Ukraine in the sampled countries by their groups. It is found that 1 kg of wheat provides roughly 2,839–2,965 kilocalories (kcal) of energy, and between 81 and 88 g (gm) of protein, in the sampled countries. Using the conversion factors, this study assesses the impacts of a reduction of wheat exports in the global market due to the ongoing armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine applying an ex-ante assessment process. Specifically, this study assumes a 100% and 50% reduction in wheat exports by Russia and Ukraine, and then estimates its impact on daily calorie and protein intake in the sampled countries.Results: The ex-ante simulation shows that, under the assumption of a 100% reduction of wheat exports from Russia and Ukraine and assuming alternative wheat import sources are unavailable, yearly per capita wheat consumption would be reduced by 19% in South Asia, 57% in Sub-Saharan Africa, 26% in Southeast Asia, nearly 39% in Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, and 27% in other areas. Consequently, daily per capita calorie intake in South Asia would fall by more than 3%, in Sub-Saharan Africa by more than 6%, in Southeast Asia by 2.2%, in Central Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa by 14%, and in the other countries of our study by 6.2%. A 50% reduction of wheat exports by Russia and Ukraine without substitute supplies of wheat grain would also substantially reduce wheat consumption as well as daily calorie and protein intakes from wheat, in the sampled countries.Discussions: Malnutrition and hunger are widespread in many countries of Asia and Africa that depend on wheat and other imported cereals to meet their rising food demand. Rising wheat prices, particularly in countries that rely on imported wheat, can lead to violence and social unrest, as occurred during 2007-11. Based on the findings, to avoid hunger and supply shock related disaster in the future, this study urges to search alternative sources of wheat for the import-dependent, resource-poor countries. Eventually, as there are few alternatives to increase wheat supply other than enhancing yield gain, this study strongly suggests for steady public funding for adaptive and basic research to harness genetic gains for yield and climatic adaptation in wheat. Also, in the long run, it is necessary to explore the possibility of wheat area expansion in the suitable countries. For example, a recent study confirmed the potentiality of wheat area expansion in Argentina and Brazil. Also, there is also a possibility of expansion of wheat area in Sub-Saharan African countries. Exploring opportunities for the expansion and sustainable intensification of wheat production in suitable countries can be instrumental to ensuring self-sufficiency in wheat supplies in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Exercising power with responsibility: applying some elements of the ex-ante impact analysis to foster public participation and deliberative democracy in the Peruvian legislative process (working paper)

Exercising power with responsibility: applying some elements of the ex-ante impact analysis to foster public participation and deliberative democracy in the Peruvian legislative process (working paper)

The old-age pension household replacement rate in Belgium

The objective of the paper is to examine the retirement behaviour of Belgian workers in one-earner households who are automatically granted a more generous old-age pension benefits replacement rate, called the household replacement rate. Following a recommendation of the Belgian Pension Reform Committee, this policy is to be suppressed for new pensioners, except for those receiving the minimum pension. We provide an ex-ante impact evaluation of such reform on both pension sustainability and adequacy measures. Specifically, we test whether the household replacement rate entails a work (dis)incentive mechanism promoting (harming) pension sustainability and furthermore, we analyse the role of the household replacement rate in old-age poverty and inequality measures. To do so, we use the survey dataset SHARE and a discrete time logistic duration model to study the link between retirement and financial retirement incentives created by the social security system. Further, we use a microsimulation model to estimate the magnitude of the assumed impact of the household replacement rate on retirement and we find that this policy generates higher retirement incentives through an income effect. At the same time, we simulate various social security wealth indicators under different household replacement rate scenarios and we find that the household replacement rate could potentially play an important role in decreasing the elderly poverty rate since households with asymmetrical working arrangements are often at the lowest part of the equivalized income distribution. Overall, despite the supposed positive poverty and distributional aspects of this policy, our simulation analysis supports the reform proposal of removing the household replacement rate.

Assessing the ethical and social concerns of artificial intelligence in neuroinformatics research: an empirical test of the European Union Assessment List for Trustworthy AI (ALTAI)

Ethical and social concerns are a key obstacle to the adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) in the life sciences and beyond. The discussion of these issues has intensified in recent years and led to a number of approaches, tools and initiatives. Key amongst them is the idea of ex-ante impact assessments that aim to identify issues at the early stages of development. One prominent example of such ex-ante impact assessment is the European Union's (EU) Assessment list for Trustworthy AI (ALTAI). This article uses the findings of a large-scale application of the ALTAI to a large neuro-informatics project as an exemplar to demonstrate the effectiveness and limitations of the ALTAI in practice. The article shows that ex-ante impact assessment has the potential to help identify and address ethical and social issues. However, they need to be understood as part of a broader socio-technical ecosystem of AI. For ALTAI and related approaches to be useful in bio-medical research, they should be interpreted from a systems theory perspective which allows for their integration into the rich set of tools, legislation and approaches. The paper argues that ex-ante impact assessments have the best chance of being successful if seen applied in conjunction with other approaches in the context of the overall AI ecosystem.

How eco-efficient are crop farms in the Southern Amazon region? Insights from combining agent-based simulations with robust order-m eco-efficiency estimation

Agricultural production plays an essential role in food security and economic development, but given its direct links within the environment, it is also an important driver of environmental degradation. It has become essential to not only produce more crops but doing it while maintaining or reducing the respective environmental impacts. A promising method for evaluating production efficiency is the nonparametric eco-efficiency analysis, which compares the economic value added against a composite environmental pressure indicator. This article proposes a novel method of evaluating the eco-efficiency scores, which does not depend on field survey data, but rather on multi-agent simulations. We present the first estimates of eco-efficiency for crop farms in the Amazon and Cerrado biomes in Brazil, identify regions and farm profiles that could be the focus of targeted interventions, and evaluate whether eco-efficiency scores could be improved using an alternative scenario. We combine a biophysical model with bioeconomic agent-based simulations to mimic land-use decisions of real-world farms. We then estimate the efficiency scores with an enhanced order-m estimator that conditions the efficiency estimates on explanatory variables, thus producing robust efficiency measures. Our simulations reveal that there are indeed differences in eco-efficiency estimates between macro-regions in the federal state of Mato Grosso. According to our simulations, the Southeast exhibited the greatest occurrences of inefficiencies, followed by the West macro-region. In our life-cycle inventory, sunflower cultivation had the lowest levels of environmental pressures. However, when evaluating it in a prospective scenario of infrastructure development, we could not observe a positive impact on efficiency. By using efficient computational methods, we replicate our simulations many times to create robust estimates that are more representative than a single field survey. In addition, our novel method combines simulated farm data with eco-efficiency analyses, allowing ex-ante impact evaluations where policy interventions can be tested before their implementation.

MOVING FROM NON-FINANCIAL TO SUSTAINABILITY REPORTING: ANALYZING THE EU COMMISSION’S PROPOSAL FOR A CORPORATE SUSTAINABILITY REPORTING DIRECTIVE (CSRD)

Non-financial reporting as established through the NFRD (2014/95/EU) has become a core element of the EU Commission’s ambitions to transform the European economy towards more sustainability. To address the increased criticism which meets the current reporting requirements, the EU Commission initiated the development of a new set of European Sustainability Reporting Standards, followed by issuing the proposal for a new directive to supersede the NFRD. This paper analyzed these proposals in the light of previous findings from academia and corporate practice, contributing to an ex-ante impact assessment. As a result, it shows that improving completeness, comparability and reliability are the two main goals of the EU Commission. However, many of the new proposed requirements are excessive and raise fundamental questions concerning acceptable levels of administrative burden for companies as well as necessary conceptual fundaments for a reporting framework.

Key policy questions for ex-ante impact assessment of European agricultural and rural policies

Policies in the agricultural and rural sectors are of key importance in shaping their sustainable development. These policies are changing from market-based policies to policies that aim to influence farmers’ decision-making. Thus, the scientific literature supporting evidence-based policy-making must develop models that simulate individual decision-making (IDM) by farmers. This study aims to understand key policy objectives, related policy questions and benchmark scenarios relevant to the European agricultural sector to define the research agenda for a suite of IDM models. This research goal has been addressed following a five-step process that involved different research tools and heterogeneous actors, including key stakeholders. Results suggest that environmental policy objectives are the most relevant for European agriculture in the coming decades. Thus, the scenario modelling exercise should focus mainly on the agri-environmental policies’ impacts while properly considering the potential trade-offs between economic and environmental objectives.

Ex-ante impact assessment of land-use zoning decisions on potential wood supply at a regional level – a case study from two provinces in Finland

ABSTRACT An ex-ante impact assessment of land use plans is required in the preparation or revision phase to inform planners and other stakeholders about the possible or likely impacts of the plans. This study presents a method for estimating the quantitative effects of legislative decisions, the forest owner decisions, and a regional land use plan for forest resources and potential wood supply. The uncertainty associated with the interpretation of design codes used in regional land use plans was taken into account in the estimation. The analyses used MELA software, designed to operate on big data sets involving the characteristics of a large forest area. Estimates were produced for the Kainuu and Varsinais-Suomi case study areas in Finland. We observed large differences in the effects of legislative decisions, the forest owner decisions and a regional land use plan on forest resources available for wood supply and potential wood supply between these two provinces. In Varsinais-Suomi private forest owners and companies were affected considerably more than in Kainuu. There was little uncertainty associated with the interpretation of design codes in Kainuu, but the selection of the interpretation set may have a large effect on the estimates in Varsinais-Suomi.

Initial forest age distribution may generate computational sinks or sources of carbon: A generic approach to test assumptions underlying the EU LULUCF forest reference levels

BackgroundThe current EU LULUCF regulation calls for member state-specific Forest Reference Levels (FRLs) for benchmark in the accounting of greenhouse gas emissions and removals of managed forest land during the compliance period (2021–2030). According to the technical guidance on developing and reporting the FRLs, it could be actualized by projecting a ratio of harvested to total available biomass. We tested how the initial age distribution may affect the aforementioned ratio by simulating the continuation of forest management based on several descriptive shapes of forest age class distribution.ResultsOur simulations suggest that when the FRLs are prepared by employing the harvest ratio and forest management is assumed strictly age dynamics driven, the shape of the initial forest age class distribution gives rise to computational sinks or sources of carbon in managed forest land. Harvests projected according to the ratio corresponded those resulting from the age dynamics only in the case of uniform age distribution.ConclusionsThe result calls for a better consideration of variation in initial states between countries when determining the future LULUCF regulation. Our exercise demonstrates how generic simulations in a standardized modeling framework could help in ex-ante impact assessment of proposed changes to the LULUCF regulation.

Ex-ante impact of on-farm diversification and forward integration on agricultural value chain resilience: A system dynamics approach

ObjectiveThis paper examines the ex-ante impacts of on-farm diversification and forward integration strategies on agricultural value chain resilience, with an empirical focus on Ghana’s cocoa value chain. MethodSystem dynamics modelling was used to explore five scenarios involving variable-input on-farm diversification pursued by cocoa farmers in Ghana and the simultaneous adoption of forward integration strategies by Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire. Results and ConclusionsAn adaptive strategy involving the simultaneous pursuit of variable-input on-farm diversification and a cooperative forward integration strategy by both Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire was found to result in the highest level of resilience. Under such an adaptive strategy, in-country processors will be the most impacted when the level of safety stocks are below 25% of the average stock level during the period of losses in raw material production. SignificanceThe findings suggest that a policy direction that supports on-farm diversification and in-country processing enhances the aggregate resilience of the cocoa value chain, irrespective of the forward integration strategy adopted by Cote d’Ivoire.