Key policy questions for ex-ante impact assessment of European agricultural and rural policies

Silvia Coderoni,Alessandro Varacca,Paolo Sckokai,John Helming,Marta Pérez-Soba

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac1f45

Abstract

Policies in the agricultural and rural sectors are of key importance in shaping their sustainable development. These policies are changing from market-based policies to policies that aim to influence farmers’ decision-making. Thus, the scientific literature supporting evidence-based policy-making must develop models that simulate individual decision-making (IDM) by farmers. This study aims to understand key policy objectives, related policy questions and benchmark scenarios relevant to the European agricultural sector to define the research agenda for a suite of IDM models. This research goal has been addressed following a five-step process that involved different research tools and heterogeneous actors, including key stakeholders. Results suggest that environmental policy objectives are the most relevant for European agriculture in the coming decades. Thus, the scenario modelling exercise should focus mainly on the agri-environmental policies’ impacts while properly considering the potential trade-offs between economic and environmental objectives.

Highlights

Agricultural and rural policies are fundamental in fostering the sustainable development of the agricultural sector and the food system worldwide (Sarker et al 2019, HLPE 2020)
Having established the importance of individual decision-making (IDM) models in exploring the impact of policy reforms, this study aims at appraising which key policy objectives, related policy questions and benchmark scenarios are presently compelling to the European agricultural sector
The policy questions were evaluated against the four above-defined selection criteria and selected according to their relevance to the project

Summary

Introduction

Agricultural and rural policies are fundamental in fostering the sustainable development of the agricultural sector and the food system worldwide (Sarker et al 2019, HLPE 2020). Building on the increasing concerns over environmental and sustainability issues, the European Union (EU) has recently paved the road towards deep policy changes These include the Farm to Fork (F2F) and European Green Deal strategies (European Commission 2019, 2020), as well as the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform proposals (European Commission 2018), which are aimed at enhancing the environmental objectives of the European agricultural and food sectors. In this context, the scientific community can play a fundamental role by providing a quantitative exante impact assessment and evaluating the proposed policy changes. Ensuring that ecological, social and economic systems work together is paramount to guaranteeing food security in the long term (FAO 2006)

Objectives

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion