Ex-ante Evaluation Research Articles

A Machine Learning Approach to Adapt Local Land Use Planning to Climate Change

The impacts on living conditions and natural habitats deriving from planning decisions require complex analysis of cross-acting factors, which in turn require interdisciplinary data. At the municipal level, both data collection and the knowledge needed to interpret it are often lacking. Additionally, climate change and species extinction demand rapid and effective policies in order to preserve soil resources for future generations. Ex-ante evaluation of planning measures is insufficient owing to a lack of data and linear models capable of simulating the impacts of complex systemic relationships. Integrating machine learning (ML) into systemic planning increases awareness of impacts by providing decision-makers with predictive analysis and risk mitigation tools. ML can predict future scenarios beyond rigid linear models, identifying patterns, trends, and correlations within complex systems and depicting hidden relationships. This article focuses on a case study of single-family houses in Upper Austria, chosen for its transferability to other regions. It critically reflects on an ML approach, linking data on past and current planning regulations and decisions to the physical environment. We create an inventory of categories of areas with different features to inform nature-based solutions and backcasting planning decisions and build a training dataset for ML models. Our model predicts the effects of planning decisions on soil sealing. We discuss how ML can support local planning by providing area assessments in soil sealing within the case study. The article presents a working approach to planning and demonstrates that more data is needed to achieve well-founded planning statements.

A comprehensive framework for circular product-service systems in infrastructure: Enhancing customer-contractor collaboration

Product-service systems (PSS) represent a business model that increases material decoupling and decreases environmental risks while providing customer value. PSS can help realize a more sustainable construction industry, which remains among the largest polluting and waste-generating sectors. Systemic change in the infrastructure sector requires client involvement, which is represented by the government. However, establishing circular PSS is challenging due to the complexities, which need to combine the lifecycle approach, customer-client aspects, new contracting, knowledge transfer, technology, and PSS-specific aspects. It requires ex-ante evaluation of real case studies to increase knowledge and understanding. This article presents a first-of-its-kind framework for infrastructure based on the current literature and analysis of five infrastructure pilots in the Netherlands (bridge deck, digital road lights, guide rails, roads). The final multistakeholder integrated circular PSS framework includes i) lifecycle perspective and circularity, a) materials and b) management, ii) customer-contractor relationship including a) customer-perspective b) co-creation aspects, c) client-customer hierarchy, iii) technology perspective (functions and resources) iv) business aspects such as a) network and b) value creation and retention. The framework allows customer-contractor communication and can serve as decision support. It is applicable to circular PSS where the customer has more involvement in the formulation of PSS.

White analytical chemistry evaluation of medicines quality screening devices in low- and middle-income countries field settings

Addressing the quality of circulating medicines in low- and middle-Income countries is challenging due to limited access to affordable and rapid laboratory analyses. Moreover, traditional analytical methods generate hazardous waste, posing further environmental and health risks, conflicting with several United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, such as reducing pollution and conserving ecosystems.In response to these environmental challenges, the concept of green analytical chemistry emerged promoting environmentally friendly practices through principles such as reducing chemical use, minimizing energy consumption, and managing waste. Various green metric tools have been developed to assess the environmental impact of analytical methods, but these often neglect the reliability and applicability of the methods. To address this gap, approaches like White Analytical Chemistry (WAC) have been proposed, integrating criteria for environmental safety, reliability, and cost-effectiveness. WAC's principles are categorized into red (fitness for purpose), green (environmental safety), and blue (cost-efficiency) criteria.This study aims to use the WAC approach to provide a holistic comparison of different medicines' quality screening devices, helping developing countries with high SF medicine prevalence make informed choices. Three different situations are investigated: ex-ante evaluation, ex-post evaluation of the qualitative performances and ex-post evaluation of the quantitative performances of the most used medicines’ quality screening devices in low- and middle-income countries field settings.

Ex-ante evaluation of a cross-sectorial business model for risk management in new product development: the case of Haitian farming

Ex-ante evaluation of a cross-sectorial business model for risk management in new product development: the case of Haitian farming

Ex-Ante Evaluation and Implementation of Science, Technology and Innovation Projects

Ex-Ante Evaluation and Implementation of Science, Technology and Innovation Projects

Mastering complexity in Life Cycle Assessment for product development: Evaluating the impacts of adaptive façades

Adaptive façades, which can manipulate the physical properties of buildings, represent a promising approach to reducing the environmental impacts of buildings, which are usually assessed using the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) method. However, the inclusion of additional fields of engineering with their corresponding simulation tools and inclusion of additional adaptive components in building designs leads to an increased number of possible design configurations – in the order of several millions – as well as stronger dependencies between the design and the use phase. This paper proposes a workflow to automatically generating, analysing and evaluating LCA results of all potential configurations within a defined parameter space. It combines and processes data from multiple sources, including process-based LCA models, generic LCA databases, and simulation tools. Various methods for combining and analysing the data are provided in the form of parameter sensitivity and statistical evaluations as well as visualisations. Depending on the area of interest, dynamic benchmarks can be derived and visualised. The results can be structured according to the life cycle phases and exported in common spreadsheet formats. This enables comparison to other LCA results and ensures seamless integration in existing reporting structures. The primary beneficiaries are LCA experts who require ex-ante evaluations for (building) products with a large number of potential configurations and complex interactions between the design and use phases. Identifying hotspots and assessing the sensitivity of parameters at an early stage of product development enables product designers to consider environmental aspects and optimise the product in this respect.

Towards experimental standardization for AI governance in the EU

The EU has adopted a hybrid governance approach to address the challenges posed by Artificial Intelligence (AI), emphasizing the role of harmonized European standards (HES). Despite advantages in expertise and flexibility, HES processes face legitimacy problems and struggle with epistemic gaps in the context of AI. This article addresses the problems that characterize HES processes by outlining the conceptual need, theoretical basis, and practical application of experimental standardization, which is defined as an ex-ante evaluation method that can be used to test standards for their effects and effectiveness. Experimental standardization is based on theoretical and practical developments in experimental governance, legislation, and innovation. Aligned with ideas and frameworks like Science for Policy and evidence-based policymaking, it enables co-creation between science and policymaking. We apply the proposed concept in the context of HES processes, where we submit that experimental standardization contributes to increasing throughput and output legitimacy, addressing epistemic gaps, and generating new regulatory knowledge.

Spa(tia) – a diffusion-oriented method of territorial impact assessment

ABSTRACT In this paper we consider the options for policymakers in performing territorial impact assessment (TIA) of various policies. Hybrid methods combining stakeholder involvement with systematic statistical analysis are a good compromise between the analytical capabilities of the tool and the required time and resources needed to use it. However, the existing hybrid methods focus on the direct effects of the intervention, while neglecting the territorial diffusion of the policy outcomes. To address this gap, we propose a new method, which uses a spatial proximity matrix to incorporate diffusion effects into TIA. We discuss an example application of the new method for the ex-ante evaluation of the ‘European Funds for Western Pomerania’ programme.

Identifying the actual beneficiaries of toll road development policies in rural communities: ex-ante evaluation approaches

Identifying the actual beneficiaries of toll road development policies in rural communities: ex-ante evaluation approaches

Economic evaluation of the removal of hydropower dams

Stricter environmental regulations (e.g. the EU’s Water Framework Directive) will entail many environmental improvement measures in waters that have been affected by hydropower, and dam removals are becoming a more common measure. This paper reviews economic evaluations of dam removals, primarily drawing on studies in the USA, and identifies key, frequently recurring, issues that future evaluations will likely need to consider. The paper also reports on an ex-ante evaluation of the recent removal of the Marieberg Hydropower Plant in the Mörrum River in Sweden. An environmental valuation survey carried out as a key part of this evaluation was conducted as a replication of a previous study, where the policy context was different but the expected ecological outcome similar. The replication study produced comparable results to those of the previous study.

Participatory evaluation of cultural heritage adaptive reuse interventions in the circular economy perspective: A case study of historic buildings in Salerno (Italy)

Adaptive reuse of cultural heritage can be a valid strategy to recover heritage buildings in a state of abandonment or underuse, as well as to implement the circular economy model in cities and regions, contributing to the achievement of climate objectives, to social cohesion, wellbeing and quality of life, making cities more attractive, safe, sustainable and resilient. The aim of this paper is to develop and test an ex-ante evaluation methodology to support participatory decision-making processes for the adaptive reuse of cultural heritage according to the circular economy perspective. A multidimensional and multicriteria evaluation framework was experimented in the city of Salerno, Italy, to assess alternative solutions for the adaptive reuse of four large historic buildings in abandonment, and identify a satisfying solution based on interactions with local stakeholders. The TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) multi-criteria evaluation method was used to compare adaptive reuse project alternatives including stakeholder objectives and preferences. Starting from 14 adaptive reuse proposals, the participative evaluation methodology supported stakeholders in the identification of 4 preferable solutions further developed and co-designed, as well as in the search of a final satisfying solution engaging diverse stakeholders groups. Moreover, operational circularity criteria for the adaptive reuse of cultural heritage were identified. The results of the study show the potential of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) mixed with participative methods for co-design and co-evaluation to support inclusive decision-making processes for circular adaptive reuse of cultural heritage.

Herd‐Level Modeling of Bovine Viral Diarrhea Virus (BVDV) Transmission in Cattle Herds in Southern Chile: Linking Within and Between‐Herd Dynamics

Bovine viral diarrhea (BVD) represents a serious threat to the cattle sector in Chile, indicating the need for a regionally defined control program. Ex-ante evaluations of program options using simulation modeling have proven to be a successful approach in providing decision‐makers with relevant supporting insights in that respect. Given the complexity of bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) infection dynamics, simulation of BVD spread in a metapopulation requires detailed consideration of both within and between herd transmission dynamics. The aims of the study are (i) to investigate the dynamics of BVDV transmission in cattle herds in southern Chile by linking a within‐herd transmission model (WHM) that accounts for the BVDV’s unique characteristics with a between‐herd model (BHM) that meets the demands for further regional control strategy evaluation; (ii) to suggest and discuss criteria for evaluation of the model approach and plausibility for later research and for support decision‐making. This resulted in bringing forth a modeling rationale for complex disease spread simulation in metapopulations. BHM simulations under this approach show outcomes that agree with BVDV’s known situation in Chile; dairy herds prevalence at endemic equilibrium reaches and maintains 75%, which agrees with estimations of BVDV active infection in dairy herds in southern Chile (77%). For the entire herd population, the infection always reaches endemic levels with a large proportion of infected herds (median = 60%), where herd prevalence was higher in the dairy herd class than in the remaining categories. Transmission probability variation affects the new infections picked, prevalence at endemic levels, and the velocity in which the infection spreads between herds. The fact that the presented approach was able to model a complex infection dynamic such BVDV, with sufficient confidence, provides evidence that this approach can be used to explore mitigation strategies to control BVDV in southern Chilean herds.

A model to define a real estate investment risk index for the administrative municipalities of Naples

Real estate redevelopment processes represent an important avenue for achieving sustainable development goals, but at the same time, they pose complex and opaque decision-making problems. Most existing risk assessment tools involve aggregate-scale analysis or require knowledge of extensive project financial data, which is often not yet available under ex-ante evaluation conditions. The aim of the work is to define a specific index through a spatial decision support system based on an innovative model that enables public and private entities to conduct effective ex-ante risk assessment at a sub-municipal territorial scale for public-private partnership risks. The proposed model adopts the flexibility of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique and the GIS system’s ability to clearly display the spatial distribution of real estate risk.

Instytucjonalne i realizacyjne skutki decentralizacji administracji publicznej w warunkach chorwackiej administracji terenowej

In 2020, the deconcentrated model of the performance of state administration tasks in Croatian territorial units was replaced with the model of administrative decentralization. The new State Administration System Act abolished the county state administration offices as first-instance state administration bodies and transferred their tasks to the delegated scope of competence of counties as second-level self-government units. The paper explores the effects of administrative decentralization. Based on theoretical assumptions on decentralization effects, comparative experience with administrative decentralization ex-ante evaluation of county state administration offices abolition, five hypotheses about the effects of administrative decentralization in Croatian territorial governance setting are formulated. The hypotheses are tested by analysis of the legal and institutional framework of the performance of delegated tasks, empirical data gathered through the questionnaires, nine interviews, and secondary data. The results show that administrative decentralization strengthened the role of Croatian counties, strengthened their administrative role, strengthened the role of county governors, increased the horizontal and weakened vertical coordination, improved some aspects of service delivery but not uniformity in service provision across the state territory, and improved the transparency but not led to the democratization of county government. Five national-specific factors are analyzed as possible explanations for such results: general societal trends, external pressures, characteristics of Croatian public administration, general features of the Croatian local self-government system, and adopted organizational design.

Copyright levies and cloud storage: Ex-ante policy evaluation with a field experiment

Private copying exceptions in copyright law allow individuals to make personal copies without infringing on rights. Copyright levies aim to compensate rightsholders for resulting harm by making devices that enable copying subject to a surcharge. Notwithstanding that the welfare effects of levy schemes remain poorly understood, adaptations are frequently debated. This paper provides an ex-ante evaluation of a policy that would include cloud storage services in the copyright levy system. I study whether the benefits for rightsholders of a levy in the cloud can outweigh its costs for consumers and cloud providers in a static setting. Using a large-scale experiment, I estimate the demand function for cloud storage and quantify welfare changes of various counterfactual policies. I develop a method to determine the level of economic harm caused by private copies in cloud storage, which can be informative for practice. The results show that any realistic copyright levy on cloud storage would be welfare-decreasing. I discuss potential dynamic effects and considerations of efficiency versus equity.

The Impact of IFRS 16 on the financials of the Greek listed companies

Research Question: What was the impact of the adoption of the new international accounting standards for leases IFRS 16 on the financial statements of the Greek companies that are listed on Athens Exchange? Motivation: The majority of the relevant literature worldwide has examined the effect of IFRS 16 ex-ante, that is, before the actual implementation of the new standard. In addition, a relevant study for Greece, which stands as a developing regional economy, is missing. Our study seeks to fill this gap in the literature, as it is one of the few that have been conducted with actual data and, to the best of our knowledge, it is the first to focus on Greece. Idea: The impact of IFRS 16 was expected to be significant at several levels. This study examines the magnitude of the impact on the Greek companies of public interest. Data: Fist, we gather the financial statements of a sample of 79 Greek companies. Then, we compare several items of the financial statements for years 2018 and 2019, i.e., the year before the application of IFRS 16 and the year that the new standard was initiated. Tools: Based on the data found in the published financial statements for years 2018 and 2019, we measure the impact on key figures such as assets, liabilities, depreciation and interest expenses. Then, we assess the impact of IFRS 16 on several profitability, liquidity and leverage ratios. The significance of the impact on the financial ratios is also assessed with a single-factor cross-sectional regression analysis. Findings: Our findings indicate that key balance sheet figures, such as assets and total leasing liabilities, and significant profit and loss items, such as depreciation and interest expenses, are increased in 2019 compared to the previous year. The impact of the new standard on primary financial ratios was also substantial. Several ratios, such as EBITDA, ROE, ROA, ROCE, current ratio, leverage ratio and interest coverage ratio seem to have been affected by the new international accounting standard, to a less or a higher degree. A significant degree of consistency in financial ratios between 2018 and 2019 is also revealed. Contribution: Most of the studies on the subject conducted to date are mainly ex-ante evaluations of how the new standard would affect the financial position of the companies applying the IFRS accounting framework. Our paper stands as one of the few ex-post studies on the subject using data from financial statements that have been prepared following the requirements of IFRS 16. Therefore, in our study, the impact of IFRS 16 is no longer gauzed but it is actually measured with real data. In addition, our study is the first one for Greece, whose stock exchange is considered to be an advanced emerging market.

An Ex-ante Evaluation Model of Urban Renewal Projects for the Sustainability Potential towards TOD and AUD based on a FDEMATEL-GIS-FI Approach

The transit-oriented development (TOD) and arts and culture-led urban development (AUD) have been evolved as two of primary strategies for sustainable urban revitalization. Ex-ante sustainability evaluation has emerged as a crucial procedure in the field of urban renewal to prevent non-sustainable redevelopment projects. However, in the ex-ante evaluation of urban renewal projects, TOD and AUD have ambiguous indicators, imprecise weights, and undetermined evaluation methodologies. To fill these gaps, this work combines GIS, fuzzy theory, and decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) to build an ex-ante evaluation model for evaluating the sustainability potential of urban renewal projects. Three areas in Guangzhou that are undergoing reconstruction and development are used as empirical instances in this study. This study provides a hierarchical structure of the evaluation framework which contains three dimensions, five criteria, and twenty-seven indicators, and also obtains the influential relationships among five criteria. In the empirical scenario, the Guangzhou Steel New Town area (GSNT) is reflected in the large potential benefits in both directions (i.e., TOD and AUD). In contrast, the existing urban renewal development plan does not adequately utilize the potential of the Shiqiao (SQ) area. This study, therefore, proposes that to increase land-use efficiency and subsequently economic development, the SQ area should either start from the current conditions or adapt its current strategy to renewal. With the help of this study, local decision-makers may examine the viability of urban renewal initiatives and gauge the possibility for three crucial Guangzhou urban renewal areas to flourish sustainably. This study also offers a decision-base for prospective future improvement in response to the evaluation outcomes.

Ex-Ante Evaluation of the Vietnam – UAE CEPA Impact on Vietnam’s Exports of Garments to the UAE

Using the SMART model, this paper aims at examining the ex-ante impact of the Vietnam – United Arab Emirates Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (Vietnam – UAE CEPA), on Vietnam’s garment exports, which is still under negotiation. Two scenarios are developed in accordance with the UAE’s trade liberalization whose focus is on Asian countries including Vietnam. A positive effect of the assumed Vietnam – UAE CEPA on Vietnam’s exports are found in two scenarios. However, the UAE’s deeper engagement with other countries would cause a remarkable decrease in the export turnover of Vietnam’s commodities, leading to some short-term and long-term recommendations of the author to promote Vietnam’s export of garments to the UAE.

The Role of Non-Governmental Sector in Community Water, Sanitation and Hygiene Technologies and Services in North- Western Ghana

Despite the Sustainable Development Goals which have been adopted since September 2015, researchfindings on sectoral achievements of the gaols are inadequate. This study ascertained the approaches,effectiveness, implications and challenges of the Centre for Indigenous Knowledge and OrganisationalDevelopment as a Non-Governmental Organisation (NGO), in promoting access to water, sanitation andhygiene (WASH) through its water for resilience project in rural communities of the Lawra Municipalityand Nandom District of the north-western corridor of Ghana. A before-and-after study design with mixedmethods research approach was used, and theoretically dictated by the Malongza’s model. Sample sizesof 400 for ex-ante evaluation and 260 at the ex-post evaluation stages were used. It was found that theintervention improved WASH technologies and services, provided schools with vegetables, equippedwomen with livelihood opportunities and reduced diarrheal diseases, but challenged by implementationdeadlines. Joint public and private sector interventions to make WASH services sustainable in ruralcommunities were recommended.

Travel demand management: The solution to public transit congestion? An ex-ante evaluation of staggered work hours schemes for the Paris region

This paper investigates the congestion relief potential of staggered work hours (SWH) schemes for public transit. An ex-ante evaluation framework is developed, which combines a hybrid assignment model with a travel demand management module to simulate the impact of SWH schemes on travel demand and public transit congestion. The key performance indicators capture not only congestion relief benefits, but also rescheduling costs for users. The methodology is applied to the RER A heavy rail line in Paris, the busiest public transit line in Europe. We find that SWH schemes generate congestion relief benefits, as intended, even matching up to telework policies. Yet, such benefits remain moderate, adding up to 20% of total crowding costs for the morning peak period at most. Moreover, substantial rescheduling costs are involved: decreasing the total time standing by 1 h implies shifting fifteen trips by the same amount of time. Regarding policy design, our results suggest that shifting few users by a large amount of time is usually more efficient than shifting many users by a smaller amount of time; the latter may even prove counterproductive by merely transferring the peak to some other time in the morning. We also find for the RER A that focusing the SWH scheme on a single station - the biggest trip attractor - yields benefits similar to applying the scheme over the whole line (for a similar level of effort in terms of total timeshift). The developed framework is intended to provide guidance as how to improve the design of future SWH schemes, in particular in times of social distancing and need for reduced crowding.