Ex-ante Evaluation Research Articles

Evaluating the sustainability of urban renewal projects based on a model of hybrid multiple-attribute decision-making

Sustainable urban renewal has received tremendous academic attention and has been put into wide practice around the world. In order to avoid unsustainable renewal projects, the evaluation of the sustainability of urban renewal has become a critical procedure. However, there is an insufficient number of relevant studies on ex-ante evaluation compared to a large amount of literature focusing on ex-post evaluation. Most literature does not fully consider the interdependency between the dimensions/criteria of evaluation. How to utilize this to evaluate real cases is shortage. Hence, this study presents an ex-ante decision-making model for evaluating the sustainability of urban renewal projects based on hybrid multiple-attribute decision-making (MADM) from a government perspective, and includes three classical dimensions: economic (D1), social and cultural (D2), and environment (D3), as well as 13 relevant criteria. A case in Taiwan is used to evaluate the potential performance of sustainability and explore improvement strategies. Empirical results from the Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) reveal that the social and cultural (D2) dimension impact the environment (D3) and economic (D1) dimensions, with the economic (D1) dimension being the most impacted by other dimensions. Enhancing transportation (C5), strengthening the accessibility of various public facilities (C4), preserving local culture (C9), increasing greening and open space (C10), and improving land-use efficiency (C3) are the criteria in the “cause” position, among which strengthening the accessibility of various public facilities (C4) and improving land-use efficiency (C3) are considered to be the core of urban renewal project sustainability based on DEMATEL and the DEMATEL-based analytic network process (DANP). The modified VlseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR) method indicated that the social and cultural (D2) and the environment (D3) dimensions have poor performance. Thereafter relevant improvement strategies and paths are suggested based on an influence network relation map (INRM). The results imply that recent urban renewal policy reform in Taiwan represents a step toward sustainable development.

Effets de moyen terme d’une hausse de TVA sur le niveau de vie et les inégalités: une approche par microsimulation

Les effets d’une hausse de la TVA sur le niveau de vie et les inegalites sont a la fois directs et differes. Une telle hausse se traduit l’annee meme par une augmentation des prix. Dans un second temps, les revenus d’activite et les autres types de revenus s’ajustent partiellement. Par ailleurs, les baremes des prestations sociales et des impots directs sont indexes sur l’inflation. Ces travaux proposent une evaluation ex ante de ces mecanismes via le modele de microsimulation INES. Trois ans apres une hausse de trois points du taux normal de TVA, le niveau de vie corrige de la TVA et des depenses de loyer serait inferieur, en moyenne, de 0.6 % en termes reels a ce qu’il aurait ete en l’absence de hausse. Cet effet differe correspond a 45 % de l’effet initial. Les 10 % des personnes les plus modestes se distinguent du reste de la population par une perte relative de niveau de vie corrige pres de trois fois plus importante.

A CGE analysis of the impact of climate change on sustainable development: the case of High Plateaux region, Algeria

The aim of the paper is to assess the impact of climate change on sustainable development in the case of the High Plateaux region of Algeria. A baseline “climate change” scenario and an “adaptation” scenario were assessed as part of our work. The methodological approach implemented is broken down into three interconnected evaluation phases, pre-modelling phase, modelling phase and post-modelling phase. The work has shown that these complex ex-ante evaluation approaches are adaptable and applicable in the context of Algeria. Our findings indicate that climate change would have a significant impact on economic aggregates on a regional scale. It also highlighted that the calculation of a single index of the impact of environmental policies on the sustainability of arid regions confirms the hypothesis of gaining sustainability by working towards a strategy of adaptation to climate change.

Adoption behaviour and the optimal feed-in-tariff for residential solar energy production in Darwin (Australia)

Small-scale solar energy production on rooftops can contribute to renewable energy targets and reduce domestic energy costs. However, installation rates are low in some cities despite abundant sunshine and generous financial incentives. In this study a drop-off survey was carried out to investigate the intentions and barriers to adopting rooftop solar panels in the remote tropical city of Darwin, in the Northern Territory (NT), and to quantify the minimum feed-in-tariff (FiT) needed to install residential solar panels. More than half of the 652 respondents intended to install solar panels. Age and renting were negatively, and high energy needs and an estimated short payback period positively, associated with installation intentions. Each additional year that potential adopters expect to take paying off panels reduces their likelihood to install them by 10%. Results of a contingent valuation assessing the minimum FiT needed for people to newly adopt solar panels showed that the median amount needed was 14.40 c/kWh (95% confidence interval: 10.74–25.83 cents). This was almost half that offered at the time of the survey (a premium FiT of around 26 c/kWh, GST inclusive) but more than the new FiT that has been introduced since (9 c/kWh, GST inclusive). There is the option that the new FiT could be augmented by a subsidised part to provide enough incentives for potential adopters. Under the new FiT, the likelihood of installing solar panels is highly dependent on the self-consumption rate of the solar energy and affordability of batteries for storage. An ex-ante evaluation showed that, if everything else remains the same, the adoption rate can be expected to decline by about 40% or 17% for people consuming 30% or 60%, respectively, of the solar energy themselves.

Electric bike navigation comfort in pedestrian crowds

The emergence of electric bikes (e-bikes) has brought a paradigm shift in shared mobility with a promise to move towards the mission of sustainable cities. Whereas an in-depth understanding of e-bike riding characteristics is crucial to effectively design the infrastructure for active mobility, it remains an open area of research. We take the first step towards modelling the e-bike navigation comfort in pedestrian crowds. Through a laboratory-controlled field experiment, we collect trajectories of e-bike riders under different pedestrian crowding levels in both opposite- (meeting) and same-direction (passing) encounters. For each trajectory, we obtain e-bike speed, e-bike lateral distance, and pedestrian crowding after processing the data obtained from four stationary cameras. Considering the riding comfort as a latent variable, we adopt a Bayesian network to represent the relationship between observed and the latent variables. Subsequently, we use fundamental principles of conditional probability to identify the causal effect of pedestrian crowding on e-bike riding comfort. Controlling for the demographic heterogeneity, we also estimate the relationship between the comfort of an e-bike rider, pedestrian crowding, and her riding characteristics (e.g., speed and lateral distance). The results of this study would guide policymakers in ex-ante evaluations of the infrastructure decisions for active mobility.

Efficiency of Public Procurement in the Czech and Slovak Health Care Sectors

Health systems in most (if not all) countries perpetually struggle with financial problems and search for resources to cover health care needs. Increased efficiency of health procurement has the potential to save a lot of money and to reallocate them to treatments. The aim of our study is to analyze technical efficiency (efficiency/economy dimension) and allocation efficiency (effectiveness) of public procurement in health care facilities in the Czech Republic and Slovakia, countries whose health systems are governed by the principle of universal access to high quality health services. Concerning the technical efficiency, the results show a low rate of competitiveness whereby the potential of competition is not exploited. In terms of allocation efficiency, our research also sufficiently illustrates the criticality of the situation; however, compared to the element of technical efficiency the situation in the evaluated countries is different. In Slovakia, purchases are usually decided by doctors and procurement is prepared without the necessary ex-ante analysis. In the Czech Republic, the ex-ante evaluation of purchasing of medical equipment is regulated, however, the decision-making process is non-transparent and does not guarantee allocative efficiency. The study has critical policy implications – both countries should urgently adopt measures to improve their respective procurement processes.

A Decision-Making Method for Boosting New Digitalization Technologies

Market acceptance of new digitalization technologies is low. To help to address this shortcoming, the following paper defines a quantitative decision-making methodology for the exante evaluation of the market acceptance of new digitalization solutions in the initial stages of design and development. The proposed decision-making methodology includes a first evaluation, using Volere methodology, for the quantification of how useful the new digitalization solution is for the end users, and a second method, the calculation of the net present value (NPV) based on potential benefits in terms of costs and intangible benefits of the new tool. A new tool for the management of freight transport was used as a case study. The usefulness of a new information technology tool was assessed in six different companies. It was designed to help developers and decision makers in information and communication technology (ICT) product development, and company managers in the evaluation of technical solutions that might better satisfy their needs. Further studies could measure the power of this methodology by comparing the implementation levels of two different prototypes designed for the same function and with different Volere and NPV scorings.

An Ex-Ante Evaluation for Solid Waste Treatment Facilities using LCCA

An Ex-Ante Evaluation for Solid Waste Treatment Facilities using LCCA

Do people really want to be informed? Ex-ante evaluations of information-campaign effectiveness

We develop a method to assess population knowledge about any given topic. We define, and rationalize, types of beliefs that form the ‘knowledge spectrum’. Using a sample of over 7000 UK residents, we estimate these beliefs with respect to three topics: an animal-based diet, alcohol consumption and immigration. We construct an information-campaign effectiveness index (ICEI) that predicts the success of an information campaign. Information resistance is greatest for animal-based diets, and the ICEI is highest for immigration. We test the predictive power of our ICEI by simulating information campaigns, which produces supportive evidence. Our method can be used by any government or company that wants to explore the success of an information campaign.

Cost–Benefit Assessment of Public Investments in France: The Use of Counter-Experts

AbstractSocioeconomic evaluation of a public investment helps to understand its value for the community, and it also improves an investment by analyzing its different components, and the risks inherent in its completion. The Act of 31 December 2012 about Public Finance Planning makes it mandatory in France for project sponsors to conduct an ex-ante socioeconomic evaluation of all public civil investments made by the State and its public institutions. An independent counter-expert assessment of the ex-ante socioeconomic evaluation is conducted for the largest projects. A permanent committee of experts has been established to specify the methodological rules for socioeconomic evaluation and define the studies and research necessary.

Economic Evaluation of High Density Apple (Ex-Ante) in Kashmir

ABSTRACT Union territory of Jammu and Kashmir, one of the leading producers of temperate fruits in India, is in the process of adopting high-density apple cultivation. Establishment of high-density apple orchard involves a very high cost which gets compensated by higher productivity during its productive life. Considering the profitability of cultivating high-density apple a need was felt to examine its quality and yield potential that could guide the Government to formulate a roadmap for its dissemination in its domain area. High-density apple (variety-Super Chief Sandidge) was recently introduced from Italy. It is reported to be very productive and quality wise, retains a high score of consumer acceptability, accordingly efforts are being made to extend its adoption in the union territory of Jammu and Kashmir. To formulate a policy for its adoption, ex-ante evaluation was carried out by employing economic surplus model on the experimental data collected from the technical expert group of scientists involved in its cultivation, assessment, evaluation and dissemination. The results reveal that productivity of apple has increased by 53.6 mt/ha and labor employment has increased by 676 man days/ha due to the adoption of high-density apple technology. The results further revealed that with an expected expansion of high-density apple orchards over 30% of the target area NPV, IRR and BC ratio would amount to 16.43 Billion US $, 62% and 98.60.

Structural Models for Policy-Making: Coping with Parametric Uncertainty

The ex-ante evaluation of policies using structural econometric models is based on estimated parameters as a stand-in for the truth. This practice ignores uncertainty in the counterfactual policy predictions of the model. We develop a generic approach that deals with parametric uncertainty using uncertainty sets and frames model-informed policymaking as a decision problem under uncertainty. The seminal human capital investment model by Keane and Wolpin (1997) provides us with a well-known, influential, and empirically-grounded test case. We document considerable uncertainty in their policy predictions and highlight the resulting policy recommendations from using different formal rules on decision-making under uncertainty.

Quantifying welfare effects in the presence of externalities: An ex-ante evaluation of sanitation interventions

Quantifying welfare effects in the presence of externalities: An ex-ante evaluation of sanitation interventions

Ex-ante economic evaluation of agricultural research in New Zealand – a conceptual framework

Returns to agricultural research are of significant interest to funding bodies and research administrators. Ex-ante economic analyses have increasingly formed part of decision-making process of allocating funds to agricultural research proposals. ex-ante analyses are required to present economic rankings to governments and funding agencies for comparing the impact of agricultural research proposals. Although important, there is no consistent guidelines for scientists and practitioners to follow in New Zealand. The study aims to develop a conceptual framework for agricultural research projects in understanding, assessing, planning and managing relevant issues in ex-ante evaluation of impacts.

An ex-post analysis of selected road investments in the Świętokrzyskie region in 2007–2016

Motivation: A great number of road investments are currently underway in Poland. Analysing their efficiency requires a range of forecasts and estimates which are not always corroborated by reality. This is due to both objective and subjective causes. Improvements to methods of analysing the efficiency of transport infrastructure investments can be based on ex-post analysis results. These results should serve to eliminate errors and consequently improve the quality of ex-ante analyses. Aim: The paper aims to identify, based on ex-post analysis, divergences between assumed and real properties of road investments that have key effects on the results of ex-ante efficiency calculus of the investments. Results: The study was based on selected investments in national and regional roads in the Świetokrzyskie region in 2007–2016. The ex-post analysis has shown that the capital expenditure and traffic volumes were overestimated, with ADT overestimation reaching nearly as much as 50% in four cases. Most investments were completed on time. There was a substantial delay in only one case. The overestimations of capital expenditure and traffic volume have a significant impact on the ex-ante evaluation of road investment efficiency, which may lead to misguided decisions when choosing the projects to be completed. The analysis results are a starting point for continuing the research and an indication of the need to improve the quality of ex-ante analyses.

AN EX-ANTE ASSESSMENT OF CITY DISTRIBUTION ALTERNATIVES BASED ON MULTI ACTOR MULTI CRITERIA FRAMEWORK

Recently, urban areas face challenges that result from negative externalities of traditional distribution networks. Especially, city actors increasingly suffer from issues as inefficient load factors in operations, traffic volume on roads, and noise pollution. To overcome these problems, modern city distribution patterns integrated with the consolidation strategy have the potential to provide satisfying solutions. Align with city actors’ expectations, alternatives of consolidation-distribution schemes can offer improvements in both economic, social, and environmental issues. In particular, this study aims at an ex-ante evaluation of city distribution alternatives on the typology of consolidation-distribution schemes ensuring win-win solutions to each city actor. This paper adopts Multi Actor Multi-Criteria Analysis (MAMCA) as a novel approach to evaluating different city actors’ objectives and a set of city distribution alternatives comprehensively. The paper results highlight that micro consolidation centre facilities can be more suitable in response to city actors’ expectations among distribution alternatives to urban consolidation centre and mobile depot. Finally, future research in this topic can focus on evaluating distribution alternatives on a sector basis and marketing types such as B2B and B2C.

A theoretical framework to evaluate the traffic impact of urban freight consolidation centres

City logistics and goods movement using road freight is an outcome of the economic activities that sustain urban life. However, they produce negative externalities like traffic congestion and pollution. There are key areas within cities that are largely affected by logistics activities, such as commercial centres and retail districts. These locations attract many freight vehicles attempting to fulfil deliveries, often with limited parking supply. This results in long queues of delivery trucks waiting for parking spaces or illegal kerbside parking. Therefore, urban planners and decision-makers are motivated to initiate policies that can mitigate these impacts. Urban freight management policies like delivery time or truck size restrictions, and Urban Consolidation Centres (UCC) have been proposed as potential solutions. A UCC is a facility that allows deliveries to be consolidated before entering a busy commercial area. The focus of this study is to offer a theoretical framework for predicting the impact of a UCC on the number of freight trips attracted to a retail district in any city. A mathematical model is developed and used to analyse two possible policy cases concerning the location of a UCC: one where the UCC is located within the retail district, and another where the UCC is located outside the retail district. This model is subsequently applied to examine a retail district in Singapore using real-world data. The critical level of participation in a UCC scheme required for the retail district to experience fewer freight trips is characterised. The results show a diminishing marginal benefit associated with achieving greater consolidation by operating the UCC. This contribution offers a theoretical explanation for the traffic impacts of urban freight consolidation, and aids with the development an ex-ante evaluation of a UCC. The model may be readily applied to any city considering this initiative, by adjusting the model parameters for local conditions.

Artificial Intelligence and Market Manipulations: Ex-ante Evaluation in the Regulator's Arsenal

The digital economy's development poses questions unprecedented in their magnitude in potential market manipulations and manipulations of consumer choices. Deceptive and unfair strategies in consumer law may coexist and mutually reinforce each other with infringements in the field of competition, whether it be algorithmic collusion or abuse of a dominant position. Faced with the difficulty of detecting and sanctioning these practices ex-post, questions are raised about the sanction's dissuasive effect and its capacity to prevent possibly irreversible damage. To this end, this article considers the available supervision tools for the authorities in charge of market surveillance, the consumers or the stakeholders of the companies concerned.

Adaptation planning in large cities is unlikely to be effective

The assessment of public adaptation policies, strategies and plans to evaluate progress, effectiveness and long-term sustainability is challenging. The potential to develop an ex-post evaluation linked to outcomes is limited given the lack of policy implementation globally and the uncertainty related to when and how impacts will happen. Ex-ante evaluations, by contrast, seem more feasible when they focus on policy processes, contents and outputs. Yet, proxies that indicate credible outcomes need to be carefully selected. In both cases, how adaptation is integrated in local planning processes, and previous experience by governments seem to be crucial. In this paper we perform an ex-ante evaluation of adaptation planning in 59 cities, identified across a set of 136 coastal cities of over 1 million inhabitants located in developed and developing world regions. We assess 3 major areas: policy and economic credibility, science and technical credibility, and legitimacy. Overall, 53 metrics are used to assess how likely local adaptation policies are to be effective, implemented and sustained in the long-term. This global assessment reveals that current adaptation planning in big global cities has a significant space for improvement and is, overall, unlikely to be effective unless greater effort is invested in financing, regulatory context, monitoring and evaluation, and legitimacy aspects. We also discuss challenges and needs, assuming this sample is representative of current progress of adaptation planning in large cities.

Climate change impacts on phenology and yield of hazelnut in Australia

The growing demand for nuts and the required diversification of supply are urging to identify additional zones for hazelnut tree cultivation around the world. Given the long-term nature of the investment needed to establish new orchards, an ex-ante evaluation of the future production trends due to global changes is critical to support stakeholders and decision makers. With this motivation, we investigate the physiological response and the attainable yield of hazelnut in Australia, using a process-based model. Simulations examined phenological development, hazelnut growth processes and yield in recent past and near-future climate conditions, using an ensemble of regional climate models bounded by four global climate models (GCMs). While the entire domain of analysis will warm up in the next twenty years, the precipitation patterns are rather erratic across GCMs. The effect of climate change on hazelnut farming is variable across agro-climatic zones, except in the southeasternmost part of Australia, where all simulations agree in predicting a yield increase ranging from 18 to 52%. Elsewhere the hazelnut production potential varies, with some GCMs projecting yield increase and others estimating reductions or no significant changes. Yield increase is associated mainly with higher gross assimilation rates, whereas decrease is related to a delay in chilling requirements fulfilment, caused by the projected increase in minimum temperatures and to sub-optimal conditions for the photosynthetic process. Despite the need of additional field trials to further validate the model, these results may be used by private and public bodies to support new investment plans, and promote legislative measures aimed at encouraging hazelnut cultivation in Australia.