Development Of Human Society Research Articles

Quantitative evidence of the community of shared future for mankind as a driver of sustainable development in human society

In an era marked by global economic challenges, an increasing array of non-traditional security threats, and a proliferation of conflicts and issues, China has put forth the building of a community of shared future for mankind as a way to address this question of the times. The theory of the community of shared future for mankind offers a framework to address contemporary issues by promoting equality, mutual benefit, security, justice, openness, innovation, multicultural exchange, and green development. This paper innovatively quantifies the five core principles of the theory of the community of shared future for mankind using the entropy method. It calculates the proxy variable for sustainable development, green total factor productivity, using the super-efficiency Slack-Based Measure model in Data Envelopment Analysis. Baseline regression is conducted on this basis. The Principal Component Analysis method and another Data Envelopment Analysis method, the Malmquist index, are utilized to recalculate the indicators, followed by another round of regression analysis. The results are consistent with the baseline regression. Additionally, Ordinary Least Squares, Partial Least Squares, Maximum Likelihood Estimation, Ridge regression, and Lasso regression are employed to ensure the robustness of the results. The findings indicate a significant positive relationship between the community of a shared future for mankind and the sustainable development of human society, with consistent conclusions drawn from different calculation methods and regression techniques. Through value recognition, international cooperation based on benefit-sharing and mutual reciprocity can guide humanity towards a harmonious coexistence with nature, irrespective of regional and economic disparities. This study provides quantitative evidence of the impact of the community of a shared future for mankind on the sustainable development of human society, filling a gap in existing research. Based on these findings, feasible policy recommendations are proposed to promote sustainable development in human society.

Impact of the Extent of Population Aging on Economic Development and Countermeasure

With the comprehensive prosperity and development of human society, human life expectancy shows a rising trend, fertility rate shows a declining trend, the world is facing a severe problem of population aging, the ensuing economic impact is the focus we need to pay attention to. Taking various countries and regions in the world from 1960 to 2019 as samples, this paper conducted an empirical test on transnational panel data and found that old age dependency would significantly hinder economic growth. The conclusion remained valid after the robustness test of replacing explanatory variables, instrumental variable method and changing sample interval. Further study found that old-age dependency ratio will also significantly reduce consumption expenditure. Based on this, this paper gets inspiration and puts forward corresponding policy suggestions to mitigate the adverse impact of population aging on China's social and economic development.

Thermal Comfort and Restorative Benefits of Waterfront Green Spaces for College Students in Hot and Humid Regions

Global climate change presents a serious threat to the sustainable development of human society, highlighting the urgent need to develop effective adaptation strategies to mitigate the impact of climate-related disasters. Campus waterfront green spaces, integral to the blue-green infrastructure, have been demonstrated to facilitate stress recovery. However, in hot and humid regions, severe outdoor thermal conditions may impair students’ mental and physical health and cognitive function, leading to symptoms such as increased stress, anxiety, and depression. This study examined the influence of outdoor thermal environments on health recovery by selecting three different waterfront green spaces in this climate: Space A (medium water body, sky view factor (SVF) = 0.228), Space B (large water body, SVF = 0.808), and Space C (small water body, SVF = 0.292). The volunteers’ thermal comfort and the restorative benefits of these spaces were evaluated via the perceived restorativeness scale (PRS), heart rate (HR), and electrodermal activity (EDA). We found variations in the neutral physiological equivalent temperature (PET) across the spaces, with values of 28.1 °C (A), 28.9 °C (B), and 29.1 °C (C). The lowest skin conductance recovery rate (RSC) at 0.8811 was observed in Space B, suggesting suboptimal physiological recovery, despite higher scores in psychological recovery (fascination) at 15.23. The level of thermal comfort in this hot and humid region showed a negative correlation with the overall PRS score, the “being away” dimension, and heart rate recovery (RHR). At a lightly warm stress level, where PET increased from 31.0 to 35.7 °C, RSC peaked between 1.45 and 1.53 across all spaces. These insights provide guidance for urban designers and planners in creating waterfront green space designs that can improve the urban microclimate and promote thermal health, achieving sustainable health.

Evaluation and Trade-Offs/Synergies of Ecosystem Services in an Ecologically Fragile Region: A Case Study of Western Jilin Province

Ecosystem services (ES) are the foundation for the survival and development of human society. It is of great significance to clarify the trade-off and synergy between different types of ES in promoting regional sustainable development. This paper selects the western Jilin Province as a case, focusing on exploring the trade-offs and synergies of ES in ecologically fragile areas, enriching the geographical types of research on the relationships between ecosystem services. Utilizing the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model, this study focused on quantifying four pivotal services—carbon storage, water yield, soil conservation, and habitat quality index—over a two-decade span encompassing the years 2000, 2010, and 2020, and analyzed the trade-offs/synergies between the four ecosystem service functions. The results show that from 2000 to 2020, among the four ecosystem services, water yield and soil conservation increased by 13.57 × 109 m3 and 220.61 × 106 t, respectively, while carbon storage and habitat quality decreased by 5.09 × 106 milligrams and 0.01 units, respectively. At the regional scale, there were only synergistic relationships between carbon storage and soil conservation, and carbon storage and habitat quality. This study provides scientific references to promote sustainable development in the western Jilin Province and offers new insights into the trade-off and synergy of ecosystem services in ecologically fragile areas.

Study on the ecosystem service flow based on the relationship of between supply and demand in Yangtze River Economic Belt

Ecosystems supply goods and services to humans and are the basis for sustainable development of human society. The study of the supply of ecosystem services and the demand and consumption of ecosystem services by human society, and the analysis of the supply and demand characteristics and flow relationships of ecosystem service flows are of great significance for the management of regional ecosystems and the development of ecological compensation. Taking the Yangtze River Economic Belt as an example, this paper calculates the supply and demand indices of ecosystem services in 2015 and 2020, and determines the ecosystem spatial flow paths and flow volumes from the ecosystem supply area to the demand area based on various methods and models such as the minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model and distance decay model. The results indicate that 1). In 2015 and 2020, the supply and demand of ecosystem services in the Yangtze River Economic Zone show an increasing trend numerically, and there is spatial heterogeneity in the spatial distribution. In terms of ecosystem service supply per unit area, the midstream region is higher than the upstream and downstream regions. In terms of the demand for ecosystem services per unit area, the downstream is higher than the midstream and upstream. 2). From the supply-demand balance of ecosystem services in the Yangtze River Economic Zone, the midstream region is mainly the area of surplus supply of ecosystem services, and the downstream region is mainly the area of deficit supply. From 2015 to 2020, the number of areas with balanced supply and demand of ecosystem services in the Yangtze River Economic Belt decreases and the number of areas with unbalanced supply and demand increases, which is related to the changes in the level of economic development and land use patterns. 3). The flow of ecosystem services in the Yangtze River Economic Belt shows an increasing trend, from 726.59 billion yuan in 2015 to 1,450.54 billion yuan in 2020, with Jiangxi Province being the main ecosystem service supply area and Zhejiang Province being the main ecosystem service demand area in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.

Electronic structure and chemical bonding in Ruddlesden - Popper phase BaLa2In2O7

Hydrogen energy is one of the ways to ensure environmentally friendly and sustainable development of human society. Solid oxide fuel cells are designed to produce energy using hydrogen as fuel. One of the most important components of solid oxide fuel cells is the electrolyte. New promising electrolyte materials are compositions with Ruddlesden-Popper structure, in particular BaLa2In2O7. However, the mechanism of ionic transport has not been studied. In this paper, the electronic structure and chemical bonding were examined using a combination of experimental methods and theoretical calculations. This article is the first step towards understanding the nature of the ion transport mechanism in the composition BaLa2In2O7 with Ruddlesden-Popper structure.

The role of Ni- and Cd-resistant rhizobacteria in promoting the growth of rice seedlings and alleviating the combined phytotoxicity of Ni and Cd

The problem of potentially toxic metal pollution is increasingly acute with the development of human society. In this study, we investigated the remediation of nickel (Ni) and cadmium (Cd) co-contamination through inoculating rice with three new-isolated Ni- and Cd-resistant plant growth-promoting rhizobacteria (PGPR) Y3, Y4, and Y5. These three strains possessed growth-promoting properties, including 1-aminocyclopropane-1-carboxylic acid (ACC) deaminase activity, the ability of indoleacetic acid (IAA) production, phosphate solubilization, siderophores production, and exopolysaccharide (EPS) development. According to 16S rDNA sequence homology, strains Y3, Y4, and Y5 were identified as Pseudomonas sp., Chryseobacterium sp., and Enterobacter sp., respectively. Based on the results of rice germination experiments conducted under combined toxicity, we set the contamination concentrations for Ni2+ at 20 μg mL−1 and Cd2+ at 40 μg mL−1. Then we conducted potting experiments at these concentration levels to study the effects of strains Y3, Y4, and Y5 on rice growth under synergistic Ni and Cd stress. The results indicated that the inoculated strains Y3, Y4, and Y5 were effective in promoting the growth of rice seedlings under the combined stress of Ni and Cd, and conferring tolerance to Ni and Cd by increasing the antioxidant enzyme activities of the seedlings. Among them, strain Y3 exhibited stronger ACC deaminase activity, IAA production capacity, and EPS production capacity, showing the most pronounced growth-promoting effect on rice. It was demonstrated that after inoculation with strain Y3, the germination rate of rice seeds increased by 43 %, the fresh weight of stems improved by 35 %, and the chlorophyll content enhanced by 70 % and other growth-promoting phenomena. Additionally, under Ni and Cd stress, strain Y5 performed better than strain Y4 in terms of IAA production capacity and its influence on rice root growth, suggesting that IAA production might play a specifically essential role in root growth under Ni and Cd stress.

Applying the driver-pressure-state-impact-response model to ecological restoration: A case study of comprehensive zoning and benefit assessment in Zhejiang Province, China

Ecosystem degradation is a global problem that poses a significant threat to the sustainable development of human societies, particularly in developing countries, such as China. In response, China has implemented a series of ecological restoration (ER) policies over recent years. However, significant regional developmental disparities, pronounced spatial heterogeneity of ecological issues, and substantial historical debt for ER in China present considerable obstacles and financial burdens to the effective implementation of ER strategies. Delineating ER zones and assessing the ER benefits are essential for developing effective ER strategies and implementing ER projects. In this study, we constructed a comprehensive framework for ER utilizing the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) model, quantified the urbanization levels, ecological state, and restoration costs in Zhejiang Province to delineate ER zones, integrated the patch-generating land use simulation model with the ecosystem service value assessment method to quantify the benefits of ER, and ultimately developed tailored ER strategies. The results showed that: (1) The pattern of urbanization levels was characterized by high levels in the northeast and low levels in the southwest, which constrated with the ecological state. The areas of high restoration costs were located in the northeastern and southeastern regions, and the areas of low restoration costs were situated in the southwestern region. (2) The rate of construction land expansion is significantly curtailed under the ER scenario compared to the natural development scenario in 2035, while forest areas have seen effective protection and an increase from the levels of 2020. (3) The ER policy is projected to generate ecological benefits totaling CNY 8.23 billion by 2035, substantially reducing the rate of ecosystem degradation. (4) Zhejiang Province is divided into five zones at the county scale: ecological autonomous protection zone, ecological core protection zone, ecological priority restoration zone, ecological control zone, and moderate development zone. Strategies have been devised based on the forecasted benefits of ER, offering valuable insights into ecological management. These findings aim to enhance the understanding of ER and support the development and implementation of regional ecological policies.

Ideal construction and adaptation: experiences and implications of idyllic urban planning in Tel Aviv

ABSTRACT As one of the earliest representatives of the garden city concept, Tel Aviv has developed a unique system of urban space under the influence of Zionism, the modern movement and globalisation. The theory of the idyllic city was proposed at the beginning of industrialisation and urbanisation in the 20th century, and is now widely used in the practice of new town construction and urban regeneration. However, the idyllic city is not only a formal expression of concentric circles and parks, but also has wider applications and intrinsic social significance. Through a historical and social contextualisation of Tel Aviv’s idyllic city development over time, we synthesise and compare the early Jewish theory of the idyllic city, the application and adaptation of the idyllic city in Tel Aviv, the strategic planning for sustainable development, and the application of idyllic city planning in today’s new towns. The “adaptive characteristics” of the idyllic city are understood in the context of the “survival and retention” of the plan, providing a reference for the better application of the idyllic city concept in the new era of urban planning to achieve the sustainable development of human beings, society and nature.

Microwave Application in Biomass Conversion: A Review

AbstractBiomass resources are abundant and have huge production capacity. Reasonably and efficiently converting biomass can not only alleviate the depletion of fossil resources but also protect the environment and promote the green and sustainable development of human society. Microwave is one of the currently highly regarded process intensification technologies. This paper reviews the research progress of microwave technology in biomass pyrolysis, biomass pretreatment, and biomass conversion, and analyzes its technical characteristics. Finally, it summarizes and prospects the application of microwave in the field of biomass conversion.

Impact of Land Use/Cover Change on Soil Erosion and Future Simulations in Hainan Island, China

Soil erosion (SE) is a critical threat to the sustainable development of ecosystem stability, agricultural productivity, and human society in the context of global environmental and climate change. Particularly in tropical island regions, due to the expansion of human activities and land use/cover changes (LUCCs), the risk of SE has been exacerbated. Combining the RUSLE with machine learning methods, SE spatial patterns, their driving forces and the mechanisms of how LUCCs affect SE, were illustrated. Additionally, the potential impacts of future LUCCs on SE were simulated by using the PLUS model. The main results are as follows: (1) Due to LUCCs, the average soil erosion modulus (SEM) decreased significantly from 108.09 t/(km2·a) in 2000 to 106.75 t/(km2·a) in 2020, a reduction of 1.34 t/(km2·a), mainly due to the transformation of cropland to forest and urban land. (2) The dominant factor affecting the spatial pattern of SE is the LS factor (with relative contributions of 43.9% and 45.17%), followed by land use/cover (LUC) (the relative contribution is 28.46% and 34.89%) in 2000 and 2020, respectively. (3) Three kinds of future scenarios simulation results indicate that the average SEM will decrease by 2.40 t/(km2·a) under the natural development scenario and by 1.86 t/(km2·a) under the ecological protection scenario by 2060. However, under the cropland protection scenario, there is a slight increase in SEM, with an increase of 0.08 t/(km2·a). Sloping cropland erosion control remains a primary issue for Hainan Island in the future.

Exploration of the Application of Aesthetics in Transportation Teaching

Transportation is the foundation and prerequisite for the development of human society and economy, and also has aesthetic significance in beautifying human life. The development of transportation is a shift from extensive resource consumption to coordinated resource intensive use, and it is also a development in aesthetics. Guiding students to discover the beauty of transportation vehicles, the harmonious integration of transportation infrastructure and nature, the beauty of transportation data, and the beauty of the behavior and soul of transportation participants, igniting more students' curiosity for transportation majors, and inspiring their enthusiasm for the transportation industry, is the central goal of the construction of the Beauty of Transportation course.

Service Design for Social Innovation: A New Path for the Development of Government Public Services Based on the TB4D Model

Public service is related to everyone’s life and future and directly feeds back on the development of society and the country. How to better shape and develop it is a critical issue for both individuals and groups. As the primary provider, the government plays a vital role in its creation, development, and transformation. In recent years, with the rapid development of human society, this field has been placed in the midst of new challenges. These are the difficulties that government departments urgently need to solve, and the traditional solutions have shown apparent inadequacies. Service design, as a powerful responder, is gradually emerging and playing an important role, influencing a series of dimensions from service innovation to social policies. The application of service design in government public services holds significant social value. However, related research remains in its infancy, needing a systematic theoretical framework. This paper focuses on government public service design and carries out systematic design research on it in order to realize the corresponding social and academic value. This paper established a theoretical framework for government public service design centered on the TB4D model, based on an in-depth study of the relevant literature, nearly 30 representative industry case studies, and three practical projects conducted by the author. The model integrates the TSLC operational mechanism model, the Behavior-Organization-Policy operational content model, the “3 + 1” development mode, and the method reference guide for government public service design based on the Double Diamond design process model. The letters and numbers in the model’s name sequentially represent these four components. Specifically, the TSLC operational mechanism model derives its name from the initials of four parts: trans-dimensional cognitive and thinking mode, systems thinking, learning interactive innovation process, and cultural regeneration and value shaping. The “3 + 1” development model denotes three forms of development centered on internal design capability and the form of joint development focused on external design capabilities. The TB4D model combines both theory and practice, yet to better illustrate its overall performance, this paper reverted to the practical domain. It quantitatively evaluated 20 complete projects, calculating the mean value and 95% confidence intervals to verify the model. The results demonstrate that the model is valid and possesses high industry representativeness, effectiveness, and universality. The organic operation of the model will provide systematic, innovative solutions to address the problems and challenges faced in the public service field, promoting the sustainable development of society. Since research in this area is still at an early stage, the theoretical model proposed here emphasizes its intrinsic principles and universal logic. It aims to provide foundational theoretical support for the development of this field and systematic guidance for relevant practices. As the industry evolves, the model’s content can be further refined and enriched to better reflect contemporary characteristics. Additionally, because this model serves as a foundational framework for the entire field, it can be further expanded to develop sub-models with local characteristics when applied to different regions.

Design of small independent photovoltaic power generation system

Abstract This article designs a small independent photovoltaic power generation system, which includes solar panels, controllers, batteries, and inverter modules. The design requirements and principles of boost converters and inverters were elaborated, and the inverters were simulated in Matlab; The fuzzy control method was selected to track the maximum power point, and its effectiveness was verified through MATLAB simulation; Corresponding methods have been proposed to prevent or reduce factors that affect the output power of photovoltaic arrays, such as power attenuation, shielding loss, and temperature rise loss. It has extremely important significance for promoting the development of photovoltaic power generation, achieving zero carbon goals, and sustainable development of human society.

Money Life in These Conditions

The content of the article aims to clarify the life of money in today's conditions, thereby showing that money is not only a measure of value but also a commodity in the exchange of buying and selling; all activities of human life are determined by money. To clarify the purpose of the article, the author uses the methodology of human philosophy and social philosophy, and at the same time, uses qualitative methods, analysis, comparison, and synthesis to clarify the life of money. The result is a systematization of the life of money, at the same time pointing out the driving force of money in the process of economic and social development. Still, it also threatens the sustainable development of human society. With all the above content, I can conclude that: one, money is a product of human beings; it becomes a means of buying and selling goods; two, money is a common commodity, which makes money a monopoly product of the state; Third, the competition in issuing money becomes the competition between nations in all aspects of social life, from economics, politics, culture, to science, weapons, and war.

Urban land use simulation and carbon-related driving factors analysis based on RF-CA in Shanghai, China

As global climate change intensifies, climate protection is important for the sustainable development of human society. In the process of urbanization and industrialization, carbon dioxide emissions are an important factor contributing to global warming. Therefore, modelling projections of future urban land use under low-carbon scenarios are essential for sustainability policy development. Few studies have focused on the impact of carbon emissions on urban land use change in Shanghai, as current research has primarily concentrated on developing methods for urban land use modelling. This paper utilizes a cellular automata (CA) simulation model based on the Random Forest (RF) algorithm to select various spatial variables of carbon emissions as the driving factors that affect urban land use changes. These variables include traffic location factors, economic development factors, electricity consumption, and population density. In this study, remote sensing imagery of urban nighttime lighting is also used to construct a simulation model of land use types in Shanghai. The model is then used to analyze the contribution of carbon emission constraints to urban land use changes. Actual historical land use data from 2013 and 2019 are used for validation, and the prediction model is used to predict land use outcomes under different low-carbon scenarios in 2025. The model is validated by simulating multiple intra-city land use maps for 2019 (kappa = 0.88, OA=92.71 %). The method of out-of-bag error from the random forest is used to evaluate the significance of carbon emission constraints. Using the validated model, the constraints in the CA model are changed to predict the land use simulation results of Shanghai in 2025 under different low-carbon scenarios. In terms of significance, factors such as distance to power plants, distance to major roads, real GDP, and population density can all have a significant impact on changes in urban land use. By selecting the low-carbon scenario with the most appropriate thresholds for each driver, it is possible to obtain the land use simulation results of Shanghai in 2025 under the optimal low-carbon scenario, while ensuring the high accuracy of the RF-CA model and simultaneously reducing the impact of factors on the city’s overall carbon emissions. This paper provides a scientific base for urban planners and scholars to thoughtfully design urban land use while cutting down on carbon emissions. Furthermore, it can aid government agencies in establishing associated planning approaches.

Investigating the main factors responsible for changes in income inequality in China between 2000 and 2018

Poverty, and especially the widening disparity between the rich and the poor, leads to social unrest that can interrupt the harmonious development of human society. Understanding the reasons for income inequality, and supporting the development of an effective strategy to reduce this inequality, have been major goals in socioeconomic research around the world. To identify the determinants of the income gap, we calculated the Gini coefficients for Chinese provinces and performed regression analysis and contribution analysis for heterogeneity, using data from 30 Chinese provinces from 2002 to 2018. We found that urbanization, higher education, and foreign direct investment in eastern China and energy in central and western China were important factors that increased the Gini coefficient (i.e., decreased equality). Therefore, paying more attention to the fair distribution of the factors that can increase the Gini coefficient and investing more in the factors that can reduce the Gini coefficient will be the keys to narrowing the income gap. Our approach revealed factors that should be targeted for solutions both in China and in other developing countries that are facing similar difficulties, although the details will vary among countries and contexts.

Experimental research of convective heat transfer between nanofluids and high-temperature dense granite in deep geothermal reservoirs

Global warming is increasing as CO2 emissions from the use of conventional fossil fuels continue to rise. The development of geothermal energy is gradually becoming the key to the sustainable development of human society in the future. Enhancing the heat transfer performance of circulating heat transfer fluids is one of the effective means to efficiently exploit deep geothermal resources. In this study, a self-developed circulating heat exchange experimental setup was established. The convection heat transfer characteristics of nanofluids in high-temperature rocks were experimentally investigated. Al2O3 nanofluid and CuO nanofluid were used as the working medium for heat transfer in high temperature granite samples. The effects of the Reynolds number (1000–6000) and parameters such as nanoparticle type (CuO & Al2O3), size (20 nm & 40 nm) and mass fraction (0 wt%-2wt%) on the heat transfer intensity were analyzed. The effect of nanoparticle accumulation on the rock surface on the local heat transfer strength was also investigated. The results indicate that the increase of Reynolds number enhances the heat transfer strength of nanofluids in rocks. Nanofluid containing 20 nm Al2O3 nanoparticles has better heat transfer performance in rock than nanofluid containing 20 nm CuO nanoparticles. Meanwhile, the heat transfer performance of nanofluid containing 20 nm Al2O3 nanoparticles in rock is better than that of nanofluid containing 40 nm Al2O3 nanoparticles. The heat transfer intensity increases and then decreases as the nanoparticle mass fraction increases. The heat transfer coefficient at Reynolds number 6000 is 52.2 % higher than that of water. For nanofluids and water, the local heat transfer intensity decreases with increasing distance from the inlet. Meanwhile, accumulation of nanoparticles on rock surfaces during convective heat transfer enhances heat transfer intensity. The results show that nanofluids have the potential to be applied to deep geothermal resource extraction. This paper provides data and technical support for the application of nanomaterials in medium and deep geothermal systems to enhance heat transfer efficiency.

Research on the relative threshold of sustainable development of the complex system in the Yellow River Basin

As a complex system, the sustainability of basins is crucial for the development and stability of human society. This study creatively combined Otsu algorithm with analytic hierarchy process to determine the relative threshold of sustainable development of the Yellow River basin system, aiming to provide a new perspective for the application of threshold theory to the study of sustainable development. The results showed that among the 24 sustainable development evaluation indicators, the Per Capita Cultivated Area (F24) had the greatest impact, while the Ecological Water use (F2) and Agricultural Water use (F19) indicators had the greatest impact range. For different subsystems, the sustainable development indices of the eco-environment subsystem in the upstream of the Yellow River exhibited more significant changes, while that of the socio-economic subsystem exhibited more prominent changes in the midstream. However, the sustainable development indices of the water-sand subsystems in the upstream, midstream, and downstream fluctuated greatly, with a maximum value occurring downstream. The sustainable development threshold was further determined to be 0.408 for the complex system in the Yellow River Basin. The sustainable development thresholds differed in upstream, midstream, and downstream, which ranged from 0.4201 to 0.4524. Based on the sustainable development threshold, the sustainable development status of the Yellow River Basin had continued to improve since 2017, and a high level of sustainability had been maintained. However, the sustainable status is a dynamic process of change, and changes in natural conditions or policies may affect the state of sustainable development.

Ada-XG-CatBoost: A Combined Forecasting Model for Gross Ecosystem Product (GEP) Prediction

The degradation of the ecosystem and the loss of natural capital have seriously threatened the sustainable development of human society and economy. Currently, most research on Gross Ecosystem Product (GEP) is based on statistical modeling methods, which face challenges such as high modeling difficulty, high costs, and inaccurate quantitative methods. However, machine learning models are characterized by high efficiency, fewer parameters, and higher accuracy. Despite these advantages, their application in GEP research is not widespread, particularly in the area of combined machine learning models. This paper includes both a GEP combination model and an explanatory analysis model. This paper is the first to propose a combined GEP prediction model called Ada-XGBoost-CatBoost (Ada-XG-CatBoost), which integrates the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Categorical Boosting (CatBoost) algorithms, and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) model. This approach overcomes the limitations of single-model evaluations and aims to address the current issues of inaccurate and incomplete GEP assessments. It provides new guidance and methods for enhancing the value of ecosystem services and achieving regional sustainable development. Based on the actual ecological data of a national city, data preprocessing and feature correlation analysis are carried out using XGBoost and CatBoost algorithms, AdaGrad optimization algorithm, and the Bayesian hyperparameter optimization method. By selecting the 11 factors that predominantly influence GEP, training the model using these selected feature datasets, and optimizing the Bayesian parameters, the error gradient is then updated to adjust the weights, achieving a combination model that minimizes errors. This approach reduces the risk of overfitting in individual models and enhances the predictive accuracy and interpretability of the model. The results indicate that the mean squared error (MSE) of the Ada-XG-CatBoost model is reduced by 65% and 70% compared to the XGBoost and CatBoost, respectively. Additionally, the mean absolute error (MAE) is reduced by 4.1% and 42.6%, respectively. Overall, the Ada-XG-CatBoost combination model has a more accurate and stable predictive performance, providing a more accurate, efficient, and reliable reference for the sustainable development of the ecological industry.