Evidence Of Systematic Errors Research Articles

Reporting errors in the I/B/E/S earnings forecast database: J. Doe vs. J. Doe

This paper provides evidence of systematic errors in the way I/B/E/S reports analyst earnings forecasts. Analysis of the I/B/E/S earnings forecast database over the 1982–2014 period pinpointed a lack of consistency in the identification of financial analysts, a number of whom are consequently (1) identified by several different codes, and (2) erroneously attributed forecasts that were issued by namesakes. The present empirical investigation reveals that over 10% of the analyst codes in the database are subject to such reporting errors. These reporting errors impact the evaluation of analysts’ characteristics, and may bias empirical studies that rely on tracking analysts.

The distribution of probability values in medical abstracts: an observational study.

BackgroundA relatively high incidence of p values immediately below 0.05 (such as 0.047 or 0.04) compared to p values immediately above 0.05 (such as 0.051 or 0.06) has been noticed anecdotally in published medical abstracts. If p values immediately below 0.05 are over-represented, such a distribution may reflect the true underlying distribution of p values or may be due to error (a false distribution). If due to error, a consistent over-representation of p values immediately below 0.05 would be a systematic error due either to publication bias or (overt or inadvertent) bias within studies.MethodsWe searched the Medline 2012 database to identify abstracts containing a p value. Two thousand abstracts out of 80,649 abstracts were randomly selected. Two independent researchers extracted all p values. The p values were plotted and compared to a predicted curve. Chi square test was used to test assumptions and significance was set at 0.05.Results2798 p value ranges and 3236 exact p values were reported. 4973 of these (82 %) were significant (<0.05). There was an over-representation of p values immediately below 0.05 (between 0.01 and 0.049) compared to those immediately above 0.05 (between 0.05 and 0.1) (p = 0.001).ConclusionThe distribution of p values in reported medical abstracts provides evidence for systematic error in the reporting of p values. This may be due to publication bias, methodological errors (underpowering, selective reporting and selective analyses) or fraud.

Calibration of an objective alertness scale

In order to establish validity of an objective scale of alertness–sleepiness, one is forced to somehow calibrate it using subjective scales, such as the Karolinska Sleepiness Scale (KSS). We evaluated the effects of prolonged wakefulness on the extent of disagreement between objective and subjective KSS assessments, and tested whether calibration of an objective alertness–sleepiness scale can be established despite the limited reliability of subjective reports. Starting from 7p.m., the resting electroencephalogram (EEG) was recorded at 2-hour intervals over the last 32–50h of 44–61-hour wakefulness of 15 healthy study participants. Frontal and occipital scores on the 2nd principal component of the EEG spectrum and occipital alpha-theta power difference were computed for 1-min intervals of 5-min eyes-closed EEG recordings. To obtain alertness scale scores in the range from 5 to 0, positive and negative values of these EEG indexes were assigned to 1 and 0, respectively, and then summed. Although correlation between time courses of objective and subjective (KSS) scores was very strong, evidence for systematic errors in both the mean and the calibration was also found. Correction of these errors resulted in strengthening of correlation (r=0.99) and establishing one-to-one correspondence between the steps of objective and subjective scales. The results indicate that scores from 5 to 0 on the objective alertness scale can be anchored to minimal, mild, moderate, marked, severe, and disabling levels of sleepiness.

From algae to angiosperms–inferring the phylogeny of green plants (Viridiplantae) from 360 plastid genomes

BackgroundNext-generation sequencing has provided a wealth of plastid genome sequence data from an increasingly diverse set of green plants (Viridiplantae). Although these data have helped resolve the phylogeny of numerous clades (e.g., green algae, angiosperms, and gymnosperms), their utility for inferring relationships across all green plants is uncertain. Viridiplantae originated 700-1500 million years ago and may comprise as many as 500,000 species. This clade represents a major source of photosynthetic carbon and contains an immense diversity of life forms, including some of the smallest and largest eukaryotes. Here we explore the limits and challenges of inferring a comprehensive green plant phylogeny from available complete or nearly complete plastid genome sequence data.ResultsWe assembled protein-coding sequence data for 78 genes from 360 diverse green plant taxa with complete or nearly complete plastid genome sequences available from GenBank. Phylogenetic analyses of the plastid data recovered well-supported backbone relationships and strong support for relationships that were not observed in previous analyses of major subclades within Viridiplantae. However, there also is evidence of systematic error in some analyses. In several instances we obtained strongly supported but conflicting topologies from analyses of nucleotides versus amino acid characters, and the considerable variation in GC content among lineages and within single genomes affected the phylogenetic placement of several taxa.ConclusionsAnalyses of the plastid sequence data recovered a strongly supported framework of relationships for green plants. This framework includes: i) the placement of Zygnematophyceace as sister to land plants (Embryophyta), ii) a clade of extant gymnosperms (Acrogymnospermae) with cycads + Ginkgo sister to remaining extant gymnosperms and with gnetophytes (Gnetophyta) sister to non-Pinaceae conifers (Gnecup trees), and iii) within the monilophyte clade (Monilophyta), Equisetales + Psilotales are sister to Marattiales + leptosporangiate ferns. Our analyses also highlight the challenges of using plastid genome sequences in deep-level phylogenomic analyses, and we provide suggestions for future analyses that will likely incorporate plastid genome sequence data for thousands of species. We particularly emphasize the importance of exploring the effects of different partitioning and character coding strategies.

Intrarater Reliability of Pain Intensity, Tissue Blood Flow, Thermal Pain Threshold, Pressure Pain Threshold and Lumbo-Pelvic Stability Tests in Subjects with Low Back Pain

This preliminary study aimed to determine the intrarater reliability of the quantitative tests for the study of non-specific low back pain. Test-retest reliability of the measurements of ratio data was determined by an intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), standard error of measurements (SEMs), coefficient of variation (CV), and one-way repeated measures ANOVA using the values collected from 13 young individuals (25.8 ± 6.2 years) with chronic non-specific low back pain on two occasions separated by 2 days. Percent agreement of the ordinal data was also determined by Cohen's Kappa statistics (kappa). The measures consisted of tissue blood flow (BF), average pain visual analog scales (VAS), pressure pain threshold (PPT), cold pain threshold (CPT), heat pain threshold (HPT) and lumbo-pelvic stability test (LPST). An acceptable reliability was determined as the ICC values of greater than 0.85, SEMs less than 5%, CV less than 15%, the kappa scores of greater than 80% and no evidence of systematic error (ANOVA, P>0.05). ICC of all measures in the lumbo-sacral area were greater than 0.87. The kappa was also greater than 83%. Most measures demonstrated a minimal error of measurements and less potential of systemic error in nature. Only the SEMs and the CV of the CPT exceeded the acceptable level. It is concluded that most of the quantitative measurements are reliable for the study of non-specific low back pain, however the CPT should be applied with care as it has a great variation among individuals and potential of measurement error.

A prospective randomised study comparing oral 13C-bicarbonate tracer technique versus indirect calorimetry for measurement of energy expenditure in adults

Accurate assessment of energy expenditure (EE) is important in guiding nutritional therapy but current methods are unsatisfactory. This study compared the oral 13C-bicarbonate tracer (BT) technique using the IRIS® system (Wagner, Germany) against indirect calorimetry (IC, ventilated-hood) to measure CO2 output (VCO2) and thus estimate EE. Ten overnight-fasted healthy male volunteers were randomised to studies at rest or mild exercise in a crossover manner. During each study BT-IRIS® and IC were used simultaneously to measure VCO2 and thus EE. Participants ingested a drink labelled with 50mg 13C-bicarbonate and breath samples were collected every 5 min for 180 min and analysed using IRIS®. Bland-Altman plots were used to assess agreement between the two techniques in measurements of VCO2 (L/day) and estimates of EE (kJ/day). Mean ± SE age and BMI of participants were 21.1 ± 1.1 yrs and 23.6 ± 0.6 kg/m2. Both at rest and exercise, there was small bias but overall poor agreement between the two techniques as evident by the wide 95% limits of agreement in measurements of VCO2 and EE: rest VCO2 (bias 1.4, SD 93, 95% limits of agreement -180 to 183), rest EE (-8.3, 1830, -3595 to 3578), exercise VCO2 (49.3, 66.1, -80.4 to 178.9) and exercise EE (1083, 1944, -2727 to 4893). Furthermore, there was also evidence of systematic error in these measurements. Prior to clinical application, further optimisation of the BT-IRIS® system should be undertaken, given the poor agreement with IC in measuring VCO2 and estimating EE.

A FIRST MEASUREMENT OF THE PROPER MOTION OF THE LEO II DWARF SPHEROIDAL GALAXY

We use 14-year baseline images obtained with the Wide Field Planetary Camera 2 on board the Hubble Space telescope to derive a proper motion for one of the Milky Way's most distant dwarf spheroidal companions, Leo II, relative to an extragalactic background reference frame. Astrometric measurements are performed in the effective point spread function (ePSF) formalism using our own developed code. An astrometric reference grid is defined using 3,224 stars that are members of Leo II that are brighter than magnitude 25 in the F814W band. We identify 17 compact extra-galactic sources, for which we measure a systemic proper motion relative to this stellar reference grid. We derive a proper motion [\mu_{\alpha},\mu_{\delta}]=[+104+/-113,-33+/-151] microarcseconds/yr for Leo II in the heliocentric reference frame. Though marginally detected, the proper motion yields constraints on the orbit of Leo II. Given a distance of 230 Kpc and a heliocentric radial velocity +79 km/s, and after subtraction of the solar motion, our measurement indicates a total orbital motion 266.1+/-128.7 km/s in the Galactocentric reference frame, with a radial component +21.5+/-4.3 km/s and tangential component 265.2+/-129.4 km/s. The small radial component indicates that Leo II either has a low-eccentricity orbit, or is currently close to perigalacticon or apogalacticon distance. We see evidence for systematic errors in the astrometry of the extragalactic sources which, while close to being point sources, are slightly resolved in the HST images. We argue that more extensive observations at later epochs will be necessary to better constrain the proper motion of Leo II. We provide a detailed catalog of the stellar and extragalactic sources identified in the HST data which should provide a solid early-epoch reference for future astrometric measurements.

Using boundary layer equilibrium to reduce uncertainties in transport models and CO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; flux inversions

Abstract. This paper reexamines evidence for systematic errors in atmospheric transport models, in terms of the diagnostics used to infer vertical mixing rates from models and observations. Different diagnostics support different conclusions about transport model errors that could imply either stronger or weaker northern terrestrial carbon sinks. Conventional mixing diagnostics are compared to analyzed vertical mixing rates using data from the US Southern Great Plains Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Climate Research Facility, the CarbonTracker data assimilation system based on Transport Model version 5 (TM5), and atmospheric reanalyses. The results demonstrate that diagnostics based on boundary layer depth and vertical concentration gradients do not always indicate the vertical mixing strength. Vertical mixing rates are anti-correlated with boundary layer depth at some sites, diminishing in summer when the boundary layer is deepest. Boundary layer equilibrium concepts predict an inverse proportionality between CO2 vertical gradients and vertical mixing strength, such that previously reported discrepancies between observations and models most likely reflect overestimated as opposed to underestimated vertical mixing. However, errors in seasonal concentration gradients can also result from errors in modeled surface fluxes. This study proposes using the timescale for approach to boundary layer equilibrium to diagnose vertical mixing independently of seasonal surface fluxes, with applications to observations and model simulations of CO2 or other conserved boundary layer tracers with surface sources and sinks. Results indicate that frequently cited discrepancies between observations and inverse estimates do not provide sufficient proof of systematic errors in atmospheric transport models. Some previously hypothesized transport model biases, if found and corrected, could cause inverse estimates to further diverge from carbon inventory estimates of terrestrial sinks.

Fast Analysis of Nitrobenzene by Nitroreductase Modified Electrode

Nitroreductase (NR) was modified on glass carbon electrode and used in nitrobenzene analysis. Both cyclic voltammetry (CV) and triple potential step chronocoulometry (TPSC) with a narrow potential step interval were used. The modification of nitroreductase improved the sensitivity and selectivity of nitrobenzene detection. Both the peak area and peak current were examined for quantitative analysis, showing a linear relation between nitrobenzene concentration and peak area, and a logarithmic relation for peak current, with correlation coefficients of 0.9981 and 0.9993, respectively. Statistical tests to evaluate the reliability of TPSC showed that there was no evidence of systematic error, and it was not significantly different from CV or high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). The new method could avoid most interferents, showing good selectivity.

Residual analysis of the equilibrium reconstruction quality on JET

An extended set of statistical tests, aimed at assessing the quality of the magnetic reconstructions in JET, obtained with the code EFIT using the external magnetic measurements, is described and the results reported in detail. In addition to the traditional analysis of the global distributions of the residuals (the difference between the actual measurements and their reconstructions from the equilibrium), to determine to what extent they approximate a Gaussian, more sophisticated correlation tests have been performed. Since EFIT solves a highly non-linear equation, tests adequate for multi-input multi-output, non-linear systems have been implemented. Not only the reconstruction of the pickup coil signals but also the accuracy of the plasma boundary has been investigated. The results indicate quite clearly that the errors in the reconstruction of the pickup coils are not negligible. The coils, whose residuals present skewed monomodal distributions (distributions asymmetric with respect to their maximum value), are affected by average errors of the order of more than one millitesla and multimodal distributions of the residuals (distributions presenting more than one local maximum) are quite common. Also the correlation of the residuals is typically outside the 95% limits for a good model in typically more than 70% of the cases. With regard to the plasma boundary, the situation is better since the errors in the distances of the plasma from the wall are typically of the order of 1 cm. On the other hand, in this case the autocorrelations of the residuals are also well outside the 95% confidence interval for random residuals. A detailed analysis of the correlations indicates that the main reasons for the imperfections in the magnetic reconstructions do not reside in the measurements, since there is no evidence of systematic errors or problems with the calibrations. Therefore, the main improvements are to be expected by refinements in the used equilibrium code EFIT, whose constraints and boundary conditions are probably not the most appropriate to model H mode plasmas.

TH‐C‐BRB‐05: Status of the NIST Primary Standard Water Calorimeter for 60Co Beams

Purpose: Validation of a second‐generation primary standard water calorimeter for use in 60Co radiation beams. Method and Materials: Work on a second‐generation water calorimeter at NIST has progressed to a stage in which extensive comparison tests are being conducted with a transfer chamber connecting the historical value determined by Steve Domen. The present water calorimeter based upon Domen's original design consists of a thin‐walled cylindrical glass vessel of ∼2 cm radius and ∼12 cm length with two thermistor probes mounted along the axis. The response of the thermistors which are wired into opposite arms of a Wheatstone bridge is measured with a lock‐in amplifier (LIA). The calorimeter situated at 5 cm depth in a water phantom at various SDD (77.4 cm and 100.0 cm) is subject to periodic 70s radiation exposures from a vertical 60Co radiation beam and its steady‐state response is obtained both by Fourier analysis and midpoint extrapolation of the time waveform obtained from the LIA. A separate vessel of similar but not identical dimensions containing a calibrated Farmer chamber then replaces the thermistor system to obtain a dose rate under identical conditions. Results: Agreement between chamber and calorimeter estimates of dose is within 0.4% for SDD of 77.4 cm and 0.13% at 100 cm. At 77.4 cm dependence on spatial variations due to possible nonuniformities in the beam were faithfully replicated by the thermistor system however the latter estimates of dose rate were lower in all cases. At 100 cm there is no spatial dependence and no evidence of systematic error. Conclusion: The differences between calorimeter and transfer standard were within the 1 sigma statistical uncertainty of+/− 0.13% at 1 m; consistency of the new calorimeter with the historical value is obtained. Reproducibility and possible corrections are needed before the primary standard can be reestablished.

Foreground removal from Planck Sky Model temperature maps using a MLP neural network

AbstractUnfortunately, the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) radiation is contaminated by emission originating in the Milky Way (synchrotron, free‐free and dust emission). Since the cosmological information is statistically in nature, it is essential to remove this foreground emission and leave the CMB with no systematic errors. To demonstrate the feasibility of a simple multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network for extracting the CMB temperature signal, we have analyzed a specific data set, namely the Planck Sky Model maps, developed for evaluation of different component separation methods before including them in the Planck data analysis pipeline. It is found that a MLP neural network can provide a CMB map of about 80 % of the sky to a very high degree uncorrelated with the foreground components. Also the derived power spectrum shows little evidence for systematic errors (© 2009 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH &amp; Co. KGaA, Weinheim)

Forecast Quality and Simple Instrument Rules: A Real-Time Data Approach

We start from the assertion that a useful monetary policy design should be founded on more realistic assumptions about what policymakers can know at the time when policy decisions have to be made. Since the Taylor rule – if used as an operational device - implies a forward looking behaviour, we analyze the reliability of the input information. We investigate the forecasting performance of OECD projections for GDP growth rates and inflation. We diagnose a much better forecasting record for inflation rates compared to GDP growth rates, which for most countries are almost uninformative at the time a Taylor rule should sensibly be applied. Using this data set, we find significant differences between Taylor rules estimated over revised data compared to real-time data. There is evidence that monetary policy seems to react more actively in real time than rules estimated over revised data suggest. Given the evidence of systematic errors in OECD forecasts, in a next step we attempt to correct for these forecast biases and check to which extent this can lower the errors in interest rate policy setting. An ex-ante simulation for the years 1991 to 2001 supports the proposal that correcting for forecast errors and biases based on an error model can lower the resulting policy error in interest rate setting for most countries under consideration. In addition we investigate to what extent structural changes in the policy reaction behaviour can be handled with moving instead of expanding samples. Our results point out that the information set available needs a careful examination when applied to instrument rules like those of the Taylor type. Limited forecast quality and significant data revisions recommend a more sophisticated handling of the dated information, for which we present an operational procedure that has the potential of reducing the risk of severe policy errors.

Dominance and Friendliness: On the Interaction of Gender and Situation

ABSTRACT The present study examined the systematic effects of gender and situation on two personality characteristics: dominance and friendliness. Individuals were observed twice in each of three situations: with a familiar person of the same sex, with an unfamiliar person of the same sex, and with an unfamiliar person of the opposite sex. Observations by independent observers were collected using behavior counts and ratings. In addition, self‐reports about dominance and friendliness in different situations were collected. Results based on the independent observers generally indicated that sex differences are reduced in mixed‐sex groups and accentuated in same‐sex groups. There was also evidence of systematic errors in the self‐reports suggesting that men may overestimate their degree of friendliness and that women may overestimate their level of dominance.

An Assessment of the Accuracy of the Deep Space Network Extragalactic Reference Frame

The Deep Space Network (DSN) Radio Reference Frame consists of a catalog of angular positions for 281 extragalactic radio sources based on VLBI measurements made during the period from 1978 to 1992. A realistic assessment of the accuracy of these source position estimates must consider both modeled stochastic errors and systematic model deficiencies. Modeled stochastic errors include thermal noise (signal-to-noise ratio) and fluctuations in tropospheric refractivity due to the changing distribution of water vapor. These modeled errors result in a median formal position uncertainty of ≈0.3 milliarcseconds (mas). In particular, we examine the effect of changing the model for inter-observation correlations of water vapor fluctuations on estimated parameters. Next, a comparison of our radio source positions with independently determined positions is presented as evidence of systematic errors at ≤ 0.5 mas. We discuss several aspects of VLBI model accuracy focussing on tidal effects, antenna thermal expansion, pressure loading, source structure, precession and nutation. Prospects for reducing these errors are also discussed. We conclude by combining these estimates of modeled stochastic errors and systematic errors into an overall assessment of &lt; 1.0 mas for the current accuracy of the DSN extragalactic radio frame.

Evidence of systematic errors in FK5

Analyses of FK5 stars observed in 1986 with the Carlsberg Automatic Meridian Circle on La Palma and the automatic meridian circle at Bordeaux Observatory produce evidence of systematic errors in the FK5 reaching 0″.1 in size.

Automated continuous-flow colorimetric determination of glutathione peroxidase with dichloroindophenol

Automation of the glutathione peroxidase enzyme assay has been problematical. Although such methods have been reported, they do not give equivalent results to the standard manual assay, wherein glutathione oxidation is coupled to NADPH oxidation via glutathione reductase. We report here the development of a fully automated, continuous-flow, colorimetric method for glutathione peroxidase assays in which glutathione oxidation is monitored by its effect on the reaction of glutathione with the colorimetric reagent 2,6-dichloro-indophenol. This method has a linear response to glutathione peroxidase over an 800-fold range of enzyme concentrations. Results of assays done by this method in erythrocyte and plasma samples correlate well with the standard manual coupled assay ( r = 0.997 and 0.923, respectively), with no evidence of systematic errors. The assay works equally well with hydrogen peroxide or cumene hydroperoxide as substrate and shows the same selectivity toward glutathione S-transferases as the standard coupled assay. The within-day repeatability and the between-day reproducibility were estimated as 1.1 to 6.4% and 1.3 to 7.1% (relative standard deviation), respectively. This method is suitable for enzyme determinations in whole blood, erythrocytes, plasma, and serum from rats, rabbits, monkeys, and humans.

Quantitative measurements of fluorescently‐stained DNA in gels from photographic images

AbstractPhotography under ultraviolet illumination is used routinely to record the results of gel electrophoresis of DNA when a fluorescent dye, which binds to DNA, is present in the gel. The distribution of DNA in the gel can be determined accurately from the photographic negative when the absorbance is interpreted according to the nonlinear film darking function, when the contrast of the film is calculated, and when the images are corrected for uneven ultraviolet transillumination. The contrast can be calculated from the images of a fluorescent plastic intensity standard. The local intensity of the unbound‐dye fluorescence can be used to correct images for uneven illumination. Using this approach, relative abundances of DNA fragments, compared within each electrophoretic track, were measured within an average error of 6.6% of the expected value with no evidence of systematic error. Quantitative comparisons were valid anywhere on the film for a 50:1 range of intensities, with errors distributed normally with a standard deviation of ± 10 % of the expected value.

Tectonic motions and systematic errors in leveling and trilateration data for California

Abstract We examined leveling and trilateration data for southern California. We used mathematical models that allow for both tectonic motion and systematic errors. For both data types we find evidence of systematic errors. The leveling data reveal no significant tectonic motion except the direct effects of earthquakes. Trilateration data show steadily accumulating shear strain, but previously reported episodic dilatations probably result from systematic errors.

Initiation and development of the southern California uplift along its northern margin

Abstract Analysis of three first-order leveling lines that traverse the White Wolf fault (site of the 1952 M = 7.7 earthquake), each resurveyed nine times between 1926 and 1974, reveals probable preseismic tilting, major coseismic movements, and a spatial association between these movements and the subsequently recognized southern California uplift. In examining the vertical control record, we have both searched for evidence of systematic errors and excluded from consideration portions of the lines contaminated by subsurface fluid and gas extraction. Movements have been referred to an invariant datum based on the 1926 position of tidal BM 8 in San Pedro, corrected for subsequent eustatic sea-level change. An 8 μrad up-to-the-north preseismic tilt (6 cm/7.5 km) was apparently recorded on two adjacent line segments within 10 km of the 1952 epicenter between 1942 and 1947. It is possible, however, that this tilt was in part caused by extraction-induced subsidence at one of the six releveled benchmarks. Data also show evidence of episodic tilts that are not earthquake related. At the junction of the Garlock and San Andreas faults, for example, an ≥5 μrad up-to-the-north tilt (7.2 cm/≤16 km) took place between Lebec and Grapevine within three months during 1964. Comparison of the 1947 and 1953 surveys, which includes the coseismic interval, shows that the SW-fault end (nearest the epicenter) and the central fault reach sustained four times the uplift recorded at the NE end of the fault (+72 cm SW, +53 cm Central, +16 cm NE). A regional postseismic uplift of 4 cm extended ≥25 km to either side of the fault after the main event, from 1953 to 1956. An interval of relative quiescence followed at least through 1959, in which the elevation change did not exceed ±3 cm. The detailed pattern of aseismic uplift demonstrates that movement proceeded in space—time pulses: one half of the uplift at the SW-fault end and extending southward occurred between 1959 and 1961, one half of the uplift at the NE-fault end and extending eastward occurred between 1961 and 1965, while the central fault reach sustained successive pulses of subsidence, uplift, and collapse (−4 cm, 1953–1960; +7 cm, 1960–1965; −2 cm, 1965–1970). In addition, the number of aftershocks concentrated near the fault ends increased in the NE relative to the SW from 1952 to 1974. These observations suggest that the aseismic uplift may have migrated northeastward from 1959 to 1965 at an approximate rate of 7–16 km/yr. Evidence for a mechanical coupling between the earthquake and the subsequent aseismic uplift is equivocal. At both fault ends, the major NWbounding flexure or tilted front of the southern California uplift is spatially coincident with the coseismic flexure that preceded it. In addition, the postulated migration of vertical deformation is similar to the 1952 seismic event in which the rupture initiated at the SW end of the fault and then propagated to the NE-fault end. However, the spatial distribution of aseismic uplift, nearly identical at both fault ends and to the south and east, and near zero in the central fault reach, is distinctly different from the nonuniform and localized coseismic deformation.