Events In Argentina Research Articles

Warm and cold events in Argentina and their relationship with South Atlantic and South Pacific Sea surface temperatures

A Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) analysis was performed jointly on extreme temperature events in Argentina and sea surface temperature (SST) in the South Atlantic and South Pacific. Sea level pressure (SLP) patterns associated with the first SVD coupled mode were also analyzed. Winter is the season of the year that is best represented by the first mode, accounting for up to 70% of the winter covariance between temperature events and SST. The warm and cold events in Argentina are essentially a consequence of the creation of meridional atmospheric circulations over the continent. Such atmospheric patterns result from displacements and intensity changes of the subtropical anticyclones over the oceans and of the continental low‐pressure center in northwestern Argentina. The temperature events in southern Argentina are also closely related to the warming and cooling of the coastal waters in the South Atlantic and South Pacific. The analysis suggests that in summer and winter, high (low) occurrence of warm events and low (high) occurrence of cold events are related to similar oceanic and atmospheric circulation situations. The temperature events in Argentina show higher correlation with the Atlantic than with the Pacific, which reflects the importance of the “orographic barrier” of the Andes Mountains in driving the atmospheric circulation. The only exception to this rule concerns the warm events in spring, for which the warming of the equatorial Pacific (the ENSO pattern) appears as the dominant mode. The temporal patterns of the temperature events in Argentina exhibit significant interannual variability in fall, winter, and spring, with periods of 3 to 5 years. The summer patterns suggest a very low‐frequency variation with a period longer than 20 years.

On the Use of Portfolio Risk Models and Capital Requirements in Emerging Markets: The Case of Argentina

A portfolio based model (Credit Risk of Credit Suisse First Boston) and recent Central Bank of Argentina credit bureau data are used to estimate whether current capital and provisioning regulations match actual risks. Arguing that provisions should cover expected losses and that capital requirements should cover potential losses beyond expected losses subject to some statistical level of tolerance, the article assesses how well actual capital and provisioning requirements match the estimated requirements given by the model. Actual provisioning requirements were found to be close to implied levels of expected losses. The estimate of potential losses was found to be highly sensitive to the assumptions of the model, especially the parameter relating the volatility of a loan's rate of default to its mean value. This volatility parameter cannot be estimated accurately with the credit bureau data because of the short time span covered, so proxy data were used to estimate it, and two values around that estimate were tried. The difficulty of estimating this critical parameter implies that the results should only be regarded as suggestive. Moreover, the methodology only does not seek to estimate credit risk and not interest rate risk or exchange rate risk, nor does it fully take into account the indirect effects of interest rates and exchange rates on credit risk. As recent events in Argentina have demonstrated, estimating credit risk along these lines should be thought of as just one tool in attempting to assess the appropriate level of bank provisions and capital.

Coping with Economic Hardship in Argentina: How Material Interests Affect Individuals' Political Interests

AbstractThe political impact of difficult economic conditions in the democracies of the developing world depends in part on how people at the grass roots evaluate their political interests. This article argues that understanding the political interests of lower-income persons requires two separate analyses: how people think about their material conditions, which is affected by the type of material hardships and the objective capacity to cope with those conditions; and how people think about politics, given party and class identities and economic, historic and political contexts. Using in-depth interviews in Argentina, the research develops an analytical framework through which to evaluate the conditions under which people would, and would not, support a government that does not alleviate their economic difficulties. The analysis is used to examine recent events in Argentina and is applied to other cases.

Institutions, parties, and coalitions in Argentine politics

In this summary of research about contemporary Argentine politics, Luigi Manzetti scans the political culture and the power conflicts that define today's Argentina. He uses a variety of sources, including public-opinion data, voting behaviour and detailed interviews with policy-makers, business leaders and analysts. Manzetti aims to develop a general theory of interest group behaviour, from the inception of these groups in Argentina until the Menem administration. He argues that Argentine political parties have not served the ideal function of reconciling social conflicts. Nor have they brought legitimacy to key national institutions like the presidency, Congress and the judiciary. In the absence of such mediation, vested interests such as the armed forces, organised labour, agricultural producers and industralists have taken matters into their own hands in a brutal struggle for power in Argentina. The book should be useful reading for academic professionals and college-level courses in Latin-American history and politics. It should also be of interest to policy researchers, government officials and business leaders, as well as all concerned with contemporary political events in Argentina.

The Return of Democracy?: Brazil and the Southern Cone

THE RETURN OF DEMOCRACY?____ BRAZIL AND THE SOUTHERN CONE Riordan Roett V^lentral America and the Caribbean have come to dominate the newspaper headlines in the United States in recent months. Just a few years ago, the region seldom attracted sufficient attention to merit frontpage coverage—save for the occasional coup d'état or a presidential trip. Today, all the ingredients of high drama are present: the civil war in El Salvador; the visit to the area by Pope John Paul II; the precarious condition of Mexico's economy and the fears of a spillover into the United States; and the confrontation between East and West, dramatized by the administration of Ronald Reagan and symbolized by the conduct of Cuba and Nicaragua. Far less attention is given to events in the Southern Cone and in Brazil. It is arguable, however, that the outcome ofthe gradual process of political liberalization now under way in Argentina and Brazil will, in the long run, be more important to the United States than the passion play now being acted out in Central America. Both states are important actors in the Third World. Each independently defines and pursues goals in the global arena, even if they conflict at times with those of the United States. The two states possess abundant human and natural resources that allow them to aspire to increasing influence in Latin America and the world. In addition, the eventual political outcome in the neighboring countries of Uruguay, Paraguay, and Chile will depend more on events in Argentina and Brazil than on those in the United States. The same cannot be said for Central America, which is currently relevant to U.S. interests only because the incumbent administration has Riordan Roett is professor of Latin American studies at SAIS, where he is also director of the Latin American Studies Program and the Center of Brazilian Studies. 59 60 SAIS REVIEW decided to make it so—not because it is as intrinsically important as the Southern Cone and Brazil. Few doubt that American power should be used to fashion a Central American and Carribean area compatible with our national interests, intelligently defined and articulated. Whether it will or not is central to the current debate about the American role in Central America. Regardless of how hard the United States "huffs and puffs," we are not in a position to blow down any houses in the southern part of South America. The nations of the region are largely autonomous and will become increasingly so as the century draws to a close. It is in the interests of the United States to do what it can to assure that the maturation process is relatively smooth, contributing to a sense of hemispheric and global responsibility. The United States must understand that divergence on a particular policy or approach to a problem does not constitute Latin American betrayal or disinterest. There should be sufficient room for differences in opinion while agreeing on a general framework for hemispheric and global affairs. In a curious way, less, rather than more, U.S. public policy in South America is most appropriate at this time. Strong support for the role of the international lending agencies and a reasonable attitude about private bank lending are, indirectly, the most positive contributions that the Reagan administration can make, together with pursuing a global economic policy that provides opportunities for growth. It is critical for the United States to avoid sending the wrong bilateral signals, such as reviewing arms sales. In that sense, a "magic of the marketplace" approach to public diplomacy is best—let the Latins determine, on their terms, both the time and the way in which they will deal with their problems. The Brazilian process of abertura (opening) has beerLthe least painful of all the moves toward redemocratization in southern South America. The military regime that seized power in 1964 wisely chose to withdraw before it was confronted with a level of popular discontent that would have precluded a dignified and nonviolent exodus. The 1964 "revolution " had been popular with the middle and upper classes, foreign investors, and the nation's moderate-conservative civilian leadership. The military-civilian regime that ensued initiated...

Terror in Argentina

This is the text of a report, sent last autumn to the International PEN, whose president, the Peruvian novelist Mario Vargas Llosa, forwarded it to the President of Argentina, General Jorge Rafael Videla. In his accompanying letter, which we reprint in full, Vargas Llosa protests against recent events in Argentina, such as the detention of writers and artists, the introduction of ‘a rigid censorship’, the confiscation and public burning of books, the closure of publishing houses, and the abduction, torture and murder of journalists, writers and other intellectuals.

Recent Events in Argentina

The following memorandum was prepared by a group of left-wing observers inside Argentina, for the purpose of helping to clarify to outsiders the meaning of recent developments in that country. It contains interesting and significant facts—especially about the role of the United States Ambassador—which, so far as we know, have not been publicly reported anywhere. In addition, the overall interpretation of the Argentine situation seems to us to be eminently sound—and of course totally unfamiliar to the average reader of the United States press. What follows is the translation of a French text furnished to us by an Argentine citizen now living in Europe. —The EditorsThis article can also be found at the Monthly Review website, where most recent articles are published in full.Click here to purchase a PDF version of this article at the Monthly Review website.