Event History Analysis Research Articles

Some States Stepping In: Politics and Discourse in Foreclosure Prevention Legislation Outcomes During the Financial Crisis

ABSTRACT At the core of the 2008 global financial crisis was a foreclosure crisis in the United States. The federal government focused on responding to the concurrent banking crisis, leaving foreclosure prevention to the states. Despite a nationwide crisis, only some states advanced foreclosure prevention policies. Political theory scholars argue that political ideology and economic interests are the primary drivers of policy outcomes, while discourse scholars argue that themes in the public discourse shape policymaking. In this article, I integrate these literatures to develop and test an account of foreclosure prevention policymaking. To measure discourse, I scrape the text of over 20,000 state-level media publications and inductively code them using Structural Topic Modeling. Using event history analysis, I examine the relationship between discourse themes, political factors, and the timing of foreclosure prevention policymaking by state legislatures. I find that states where a “markets” theme was more prevalent in the foreclosure discourse were less likely to advance foreclosure prevention policies, whereas states with discourse focused on “intervention” were more likely to do so. Results also corroborate previous scholarship showing that political ideology and special interest group activity impacted these policy outcomes.

Residential Mobility in Childhood and Union Dissolution Later in Life

The limited existing literature studying the effects of childhood residential mobility suggests that it influences a range of life outcomes, at least in young adulthood. Little is known about how the frequency of moving in childhood is related to later-life demographic behaviour in Europe. Drawing on residential and partnership histories from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), this paper examines whether moving in childhood relates to union dissolution in adulthood. It empirically addresses two theoretical explanations underlying the potential association: First, according to the confounding hypothesis, effects of childhood residential mobility differ by family background and resources. Second, the family stress model suggests that the accumulated stress and conflicts associated with frequent residential mobility disrupt the family and child’s social ties, resulting in worse relationship skills in later life (mediation hypothesis). Applying discrete-time event history analysis to individuals born between 1945 and 1965 in Sweden, Denmark, and Finland, we find a significant association between childhood moves (prior to age 17) and adult union dissolution. The effect’s strength varies based on the number of childhood moves, demonstrating a clear gradient. Notably, adults with three or more childhood moves exhibit a 55% higher likelihood of union dissolution compared to non-movers. These associations persist even after accounting for childhood background factors, while family stress mediates the link partially. Our findings shed light on the role of spatial mobility in shaping demographic outcomes and underscore its potential contribution to the accumulation and reproduction of life disadvantages.

Is informedness the key? An empirical analysis of VET dropouts in Germany

In 2022, one in four vocational education and training (VET) contracts resulted in premature termination—a potential sign of inefficiency in the training of urgently needed skilled professionals. This study focuses on the level of perceived informedness of trainees and its potential influence on dropout. This includes trainees’ perceived level of information about the characteristics and requirements of an occupation, which may result from various sources of information in the form of social contacts. We draw on theories from the field of career choice and job search to argue that a better level of informedness can reduce uncertainty and enable individuals to make better-informed decisions about their careers. With better informedness, there is a higher probability of finding a suitable match between a trainee and their chosen occupation, ultimately increasing their likelihood of job persistence. This should also lead to a lower probability of dropout among VETs. Using data from the National Educational Panel Study, starting cohort 4, we employed event history analysis. We show that good perceived informedness on the requirements of one’s vocational training and the perception of good school-based vocational preparation reduce the probability of dropping out. In contrast, good informedness about alternative training programs increases dropout risk. We also see that the distinction between closer or more distant groups of people from the social network (strong or weak ties) who provide information about training is not decisive.

Age at Tumor Diagnosis in 14,636 Canine Cases from the Pathology-Based UNIPI Animal Cancer Registry, Italy: One Size Doesn't Fit All.

Cancer is the most common cause of death in adult dogs. All dogs would benefit from early diagnosis, but there are no specific guidelines regarding the schedule of cancer screening in companion animals. The aim of this study was to retrospectively evaluate the age at diagnosis in Italian oncological canine patients. A total of 14,636 canine histologically confirmed neoplastic cases were coded according to the Vet-ICD-O-canine-1 and stratified by malignancy, sex, neutering status, breed, cephalic index, body size, and tumor type. Differences in age distribution were analyzed and the influence of these variables on the time of first malignancy diagnosis was assessed using an event history analysis model. The median age at diagnosis for benign and malignant tumors was 9 and 10 years, respectively. Intact and purebred dogs were diagnosed earlier, but the median age differed significantly by breed. The earliest age at diagnosis was recorded for lymphomas and mast cell tumors. The model showed an accelerating effect of large size, brachy- and dolichocephaly, and sexual integrity in female dogs on the time of malignancy diagnosis. Our results confirm that a "one-size-fits-all" approach to cancer screening is not accurate in dogs and provide relevant data that may lead to the establishment of breed-based screening schedules.

From local markets to global legitimacy: A materialization perspective on technological innovation system's dynamics

The Technological Innovation Systems (TIS) literature has made considerable strides in exploring the spatial aspect of technological innovation dynamics over the past decade. Abandoning the purely national focus on TISs, scholars have theorized TIS dynamics simultaneously along multiple geographical scales, such as regional, national, and global. Yet, the conceptual and empirical insights on the local scale of TISs have been limited. This paper elaborates a local spatial perspective on TISs and elucidates how the local scale interacts with broader scales through structural couplings. We use technological materialization to define the local scale and illustrate our perspective with a case study on a local biorefining TIS evolution in France. Using event-history analysis, we explore how the local scale evolved through functional interactions both within and across the local and broader scales. The results reveal shifting configurations of TIS functions and their interactions at various scales in different periods: while the local scale was characterized by materialization of biorefining technology and local market formation, broader scales played more versatile roles by providing resources to, forming end markets for, and establishing the legitimacy of the local scale. Policy should promote biorefinery-internal markets through technological materialization and disseminate local success stories at broader scales.

What leads to a professorship in German economics? A longitudinal analysis of tenure determinants (1984–2021)

ABSTRACT This study uses event history analysis to show what promotes tenure in German economics, utilizing a unique and virtually complete national dataset that includes 70,657 publications from 3955 economists, of which 1196 received tenure between 1984 and 2021. While existing theories emphasize that gender discrimination, parenthood, human capital, academic prestige, and social capital explain who is tenured, no study has thus far evaluated these factors concurrently across an entire national population of economists. Our findings reveal that fewer women receive tenure than would be expected based on their representation in the candidate pool. However, gender, parenthood, and non-reviewed publications do not significantly influence tenure attainment after controlling for covariates. Instead, mobility, accessing advanced career stages, and peer-reviewed journal articles are most strongly related to receiving tenure. Independently of productivity, academic prestige, such as receiving grants and awards, also impacts tenure prospects significantly, as does social capital, measured through research mobility, interim professorships and co-authorships. Being affiliated with prestigious universities shows minimal effects on receiving tenure, however. These findings imply that mobility, moving up career stages and being productive by publishing peer-reviewed journal articles are the strongest determinants of becoming a tenured economics professor in Germany.

Analysis of the functional dynamics of innovation for inclusive development systems: An event history analysis of the Nigerian growth enhancement support scheme

Several studies have explored and examined the performance of technological innovation systems by assessing the functional dynamics. However, few studies have examined this in the context of innovation for inclusive development systems (I4IDS). This paper, therefore, aims to contribute to the conceptual and methodological basis of the functional dynamics of I4IDS by analysing Nigeria's Growth Enhancement Support (GES) Scheme. This paper seeks answers to the following questions: How can the functions of innovation systems be used to analyse the dynamics of I4IDS? What inducement and blocking mechanisms determine the evolution of I4IDS? and Which motors of innovation can be identified within the domain of I4IDS? This article uses a qualitative and empirical approach, the event history analysis, to explore how the GES Scheme's structural and functional components interact within the innovation system framework. By using events as the unit of analysis, we identify and map the functions, analyse the interactions, and build a narrative that examines over time, the functional dynamics of I4IDS. Through this, it becomes practicable to assess the different forms of cumulative causation and how these influence the build-up or breakdown of I4IDS, as well as identify the dominant forms of cumulative causation (motors) in each episode. As a contribution to knowledge, the trend pattern is depicted by the giver-receiver-participate framework while the typology of motors of innovation literature is expanded to a new motor relevant to the I4IDS context: demand-pull motor. We believe that the use of motors of innovation in the I4IDS context will contribute to the theoretical underpinnings of the emerging literature on the systemic evaluation of innovation systems.

Demographic consequences of social movements: local protests delay marriage formation in Ethiopia

Abstract Despite their significance, life-course dynamics are rarely considered as consequences of social movements. We address this shortcoming by investigating the relationship between protest and marriage formation in Ethiopia. Building on scholarship in social movements and insights from family demography, we argue that exposure to protest delays marriage formation. To test our theoretical arguments, we created an original panel dataset using georeferenced data from the 2016 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey. We combined the marriage histories of 4,398 young women with fine-grained measures of exposure to local protests that we compiled from two conflict datasets covering events between 2002 and 2016. Using discrete-time event history analyses, we find that protest delays first-marriage formation. Additional analyses suggest that political uncertainty and disruptions in interethnic marriages cannot explain this effect. Instead, we provide tentative evidence that protest delays marriage formation by preoccupying large segments of the marriageable population, rendering them unavailable for this critical life-course transition. Our findings pave the way for scholarship on the demographic outcomes of protest and contribute to understanding marriage patterns in a country where the timing of marriage has far-reaching social consequences.

Why do autocracies enfranchise their citizens abroad? A large-N event history analysis, 1990–2010

ABSTRACT Autocratic ruling elites allow elections as a survival strategy. Many authoritarian regimes have taken this tactic one step further, also inviting their diaspora to vote from afar. This may seem puzzling given that elections abroad are difficult to control and provide a platform for exiled regime critics. So far, however, the reasons for autocracies to grant their diaspora voting rights have rarely been explored. In this article, we address this shortcoming. We employ a cross-national, autocratic regime dataset and a discrete-time event history model. We argue that autocracies use diaspora suffrage to repress and co-opt their citizens abroad while legitimizing their rule domestically and internationally. Autocrats are risk-averse and the decision to enfranchise hinges on the characteristics of the diaspora and the regime’s need for legitimacy, repression and co-optation after power transitions. We substantiate these claims by demonstrating that autocrats are less likely to enfranchise a diaspora that largely resides in democracies or consists of refugees in democracies. In turn, successful coups render diaspora suffrage adoption more probable. In sum, external voting rights present a critical case to better understand why authoritarian states adopt democratic institutions and wish to connect with their internationally mobile population.

College President Departure After No-Confidence Votes: An Event History Analysis

ABSTRACT Faculty-led no-confidence votes against college presidents have increased over the past decade. These votes often aim to create conditions that lead to the president’s departure. In this study, I used event history analysis to investigate the influence of faculty-led no-confidence votes on the tenure of college presidents. The analysis reveals that nearly 70% of presidents leave their positions within four semesters of a no-confidence vote. The study further explores the influence of various factors, including institutional and presidential characteristics, on the likelihood of presidential departure after no-confidence votes. The results indicate that student enrollment size is the only significant predictor, with smaller institutions more likely to experience leadership turnover following a vote. The study concludes that no-confidence votes are a powerful tool for facilitating presidential change across diverse institutional types. These findings have important implications for faculty governance bodies and boards of trustees, highlighting the need for strategic planning in response to such votes.

Statewide Community College Promise Programs: An Event History Analysis

ABSTRACT Between the 2014 adoption of the Tennessee Promise Act and 2019, 16 states enacted their own statewide promise program policies making community college tuition free for numerous students. In this study, we sought to determine which state-level factors predicted the adoption of a statewide promise program policy. Using data from 2013 to 2019, we conducted an event history analysis to identify state-level political, economic, social, and higher education system conditions that predicted promise program policy adoption. Partisan control of state government, total state population, percentage of state population identified as white, and percentage of state appropriations allocated to community colleges were associated with statewide promise program policy adoption. Our findings suggest that there is no single factor or grand narrative that results in promise program policy adoption. Instead, the results highlight the complexities within the policymaking process.

Foreign Divestment in the Shadow of Political Regime Collision: An Event History Analysis

Foreign Divestment in the Shadow of Political Regime Collision: An Event History Analysis

Graphical criteria for the identification of marginal causal effects in continuous-time survival and event-history analyses

Abstract We consider continuous-time survival and event-history settings, where our aim is to graphically represent causal structures allowing us to characterize when a causal parameter is identified from observational data. This causal parameter is formalized as the effect on an outcome event of a (possibly hypothetical) intervention on the intensity of a treatment process. To establish identifiability, we propose novel graphical rules indicating whether the observed information is sufficient to obtain the desired causal effect by suitable reweighting. This requires a different type of graph than in discrete time. We formally define causal semantics for the corresponding dynamic graphs that represent local independence models for multivariate counting processes. Importantly, our work highlights that causal inference from censored data relies on subtle structural assumptions on the censoring process beyond independent censoring; these can be verified graphically. Put together, our results are the first to establish graphical rules for nonparametric causal identifiability in event processes in this generality for the continuous-time case, not relying on particular parametric survival models. We conclude with a data example on Human papillomavirus (HPV) testing for cervical cancer screening, where the assumptions are illustrated graphically and the desired effect is estimated by reweighted cumulative incidence curves.

The Framing of Minority Threat and Moralization to Criminalize Behavior: The Case of Cannabis in the Early 20th Century

Abstract Understanding why particular behavior is encoded in law or other systems of rules has been a core topic of sociology since its inception. Although differing rhetorical frames have been identified in policy debates, little research directly links such rhetoric and policy passage. Centering framing theory, we use the case of U.S. cannabis criminalization via mixed-methods content analyses of 9,707 nationwide newspaper articles and event history analysis of state-level criminalization to make several contributions. First, we go beyond describing rhetorical frames, demonstrating that core framing tasks were associated with spatial and temporal state-level cannabis law passage. Second, we emphasize that consolidation of two “master frames,” legal and racial, are particularly pertinent to criminalization and permit incorporation of rhetorical minority threat into framing. Third, an overreliance on population-based minority threat exists in the literature; however, threat can operate absent minority groups. While demonstrating the effect of vilification of Mexican people, we show that a heterogeneous “othering” of cannabis, by attaching threat to numerous minority groups, was significant for cannabis criminalization, regardless of minority groups’ actual presence. In addition to interrogating longstanding assumptions regarding cannabis criminalization, our analyses demonstrate the importance of framing and rhetorical racial threat in the social construction of law.

Sibling transmission of relationship breakup: Does partnership type matter?

Previous research has highlighted the impact of social network partners on individuals’ attitudes and behaviors and the significant role that siblings often play in providing lifelong support, especially in times of important life events. However, a few studies have examined the intragenerational transmission of divorce risks. Given the increasing prevalence of unmarried cohabitation, however, no study has yet unraveled the link between siblings’ relationship breakups in general, and neither has the impact of siblings’ partnership type and demographic characteristics been investigated. This study aims to understand cross-sibling influence on relationship breakup, including both divorce and separation, and whether sibling similarity in partnership type and demographic traits explain the social influence processes. We used longitudinal data from the Belgian population register and family fixed-effects event history analysis. Partnered individuals ( N = 67,113) and their siblings were followed between 1998 and 2018. The results revealed that an individual’s likelihood of experiencing a union dissolution was lower following that of a sibling. This was particularly pronounced among siblings belonging to the same partnership type (both married or both cohabiting) and close-in-age siblings. For instance, after a sibling’s separation from a cohabitation, cohabiters were at lower odds of dissolving their union than the married, especially when they had a small age gap. The findings indicate that accounting for the time-constant factors originating from the family context, a sibling’s breakup might have a protective impact on one’s own relationship status and duration. The study contributes to the growing knowledge on intragenerational transmission of partnership dissolution.

Legal Status and Fertility Patterns: Regulation-Induced Disruption Among Previously Undocumented Immigrant Women in Italy

We explore, using a unique survey dataset containing retrospective information on immigrants’ legal status, the relationship between previous irregular experience—from arrival up to the first residence permit achievement—and fertility patterns among non-EU immigrant women in Italy. While competing hypotheses explaining migrants’ fertility behaviour have been recurrently offered, there is a substantial lack of knowledge on the role of undocumented experience as a contextual barrier in shaping international migrants’ family formation processes. We adopt a life-course approach, employing event history analysis and Poisson regression modelling, to investigate how irregularity among immigrant women intertwines with the timing of the first childbirth and the total number of births occurred in Italy. We find that irregular experience—as a time-dependent process—delays the transition to childbirth post-migration. Furthermore, having experienced irregular status reduces completed fertility, offering few possibilities to catch-up over the life-course with fertility levels of women continuously having the legal status. Findings suggest long-lasting effects of irregular status and the potential disruption of migrant’s fertility induced by migration policies, admission systems, and regulation factors. The reduced possibility of legal entry channels and lack of migration policies for planning and managing migration into Italy may thus have an impact on family formation trajectories among international immigrant women.

Fertility Decline in Iceland, 2013-2022: Trends and Structures

Iceland is one of the Western countries that have experienced an unexpected fertility decrease in the 2010s. In this study, the aggregate Icelandic fertility decline is dissected to explore which fertility components are the main drivers behind the decline since 2010 in order to better understand whether the development is associated with compositional changes or linked to changes such as increased propensities of childlessness and decreased propensities to have another child. As such, it contributes empirical evidence to ongoing theorisation within current fertility debates. Official administrative register data are analysed by means of event-history analysis. Findings are presented as parity-specific birth risks and in the form of Kaplan-Meier estimates of synthetic period-based cohorts of women and men progressing to parity one over calendar years. In terms of results, we find that the fertility decline was concentrated around first births, and the decline can principally be attributed to women under the age of thirty. Propensities to remain childless have increased slightly since 2013, while there were no declines in the intensities to have a second and a third child. Hence, the development in Iceland appears to be driven by clear postponement of parenthood but not altered childbearing behaviour in terms of propensities to have a second and a third child. Results do not necessary contradict theories under the umbrella of the gender-relations framework, but they highlight the importance of exploring other factors impacting the transition to parenthood, such as perceived global and welfare uncertainties. Socioeconomic differentials in first-birth fertility and factors affecting postponement and ultimate childlessness should be explored further, as well as short-term developments in higher-order birth intensities during adverse circumstances, such as the 2008 economic crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic, during which periods the third-birth intensities increased.

State temporary assistance for needy families policies and high school diploma or equivalent attainment among mothers following a nonmarital birth: An event history analysis

AbstractThis study examines high school diploma or equivalent (HS/E) attainment by mothers who had a nonmarital birth (“unmarried mothers”) and the associations between state‐level Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) policies and their postnatal HS/E attainment. Using an analytic sample of 1154 unmarried mothers without HS/E from the restricted‐use Future of Families and Child Wellbeing Study, we tracked postnatal HS/E attainment patterns for 15 years, and conducted discrete‐time event history analysis with mixed effects to test the relationships between states' TANF policies and postnatal HS/E attainment. Only 35.1% of the sample attained HS/E after childbirth, while nearly half of mothers who attained HS/E were not able to do so within 3 years of childbirth. A $100 higher maximum monthly benefit amount is associated with 86.1% higher odds of postnatal HS/E attainment, indicating the need to consider increasing TANF benefit amounts as a means to promote educational attainment among unmarried mothers with educational disadvantages.

Labour market trajectories and unemployment of older workers in Europe after the Great Recession

AbstractMany European countries want to overcome the early exit from labour market which was widespread since the 1970s through pension reform and labour policies. The extension of working life is hindered by factors that the literature overlooks. This article focuses on the discontinuity of the late‐career caused by unemployment. The aim is to investigate whether older workers are at risk of unemployment and what are the transitions after spells of unemployment. The labour market trajectories of workers over 50s in 11 European countries from 2006 to 2019 were analysed, specifically after the Great Recession and before the Covid‐19 epidemic. It is based on longitudinal survey data from the generated Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe Job Episodes Panel. Event history analysis and sequence analysis were performed. Older employees are unlikely to face unemployment. The transition rate highlights the difficulty for older workers into re‐employment. A low education level increases the risk of unemployment and remaining unemployed. Data by country confirm the trend towards overcoming the transition from unemployment to early exit. Divergences concern the higher risk of being trapped in unemployment in Southern European countries such as Greece and Italy.

Democratic backsliding and the constitutional blitz

ABSTRACT The aim of this paper is to analyze the acceleration of the democratic backsliding Israel experienced between January 2023 and April 2023 during the first session of the 25th Knesset and the 37th government in Israel. We explore the factors that contributed to this process. Our goal is to determine whether there are any elements that are unique to Israel in this regard that distinguish it from other countries that have experienced such backsliding in recent years. To do so, we utilize an event history analysis based on a timeline of the actions of the members of the 37th government. The analysis shows that the four incentives that aligned together before the election of the 25th Knesset and the creation of an extreme right-wing government accelerated the backsliding of Israeli democracy. The unique factor that distinguishes Israel from other countries is the indictments of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The conclusions offer several insights for Western democracies from the Israeli case.