Event Analysis Method Research Articles

Escalation of Turkey-Syria conflict in Idlib in February–March 2020: based on the results of event analysis.

The subject of this research is the escalation of Turkey-Syria conflict in February–March 2020. The authors explore the prerequisites of the conflict, development stages, escalation factors, and consequences of confrontation. Description is given to the positions of the three opposing actors: Syrian-Russian, Turkish, and NATO bloc. The methodology of event analysis methodology is applied to the conflict. Emphasis is placed on the course of events reflected in charts. Use of the method of event analysis allows tracing the key vectors and their intersection: escalation – peacemaking. The author employs media reports of all parties to the conflict for demonstrating the peculiarities of escalation of the confrontation. The novelty lies in application of the method of event analysis method for assessing the specifics of escalation of the Spring Shield military operation in the conditions of modern hybrid warm, which provides different perspectives on the conflict. The conclusion is made on interaction of the actors and their impact upon escalation and peacemaking. It is established that Syria and Turkey exerted major impact upon escalation of the conflict, while Russia acted as the arbiter and the main force of moderation. Conflict potential of the Idlib crisis remains high and characterized as protracted semi-frozen conflict.

Role of Heritage Activism in Post-Disaster Reconstruction

In Nepal, heritage conservation is inherently political, as can be observed from the several heritage activisms in the various forms of protests, demonstrations, and criticisms of post-disaster reconstruction efforts of heritage structures of Kathmandu, which were heavily damaged by the Gorkha Earthquake of 2015. The politicization of heritage reconstruction is conspicuous in the government’s approach to defining heritage objects and places for conservation, the methods by which it interprets the relics of the past, and the cultural history and the opposition it receives from local communities and civil society. This has led to the emergence of heritage activism to protect cultural heritage from the threat of loss. This paper aims at highlighting heritage activism and its role in the post-disaster context by discussing the politicization of the conservation agenda by the government (state actors) and activists (stakeholders). Specifically, it focuses the role of heritage activism using secondary sources of information to assess the heritage value, its significance, and the “event analysis method” to analyze the events of the protest against the government’s reconstruction plan of Ranipokhari (Queen’s Pond), located in the heart of the city of Kathmandu. The paper discusses the contributory factors for the emergence of heritage activism and its potential role in sensitizing state actors and stakeholders about the conservation agenda to safeguard conservation prerequisites. It concludes that heritage activism can serve as an important means of indirect public participation to influence the post-disaster conservation policies of heritage sites in developing countries like Nepal.

ПОДХОД К ОБРАБОТКЕ ПОТОКА ДАННЫХ, ПОСТУПАЮЩИХ С IP-КАМЕРЫ

The article discusses methods of video stream analysis incoming from an IP-camera using the methods of image analysis, machine learning and knowledge engineering. For efficient data storage, a motion identification method was developed to determine the frame rate using a neural network (NN) classification of the block representation of the frame difference. In addition, the model of domain knowledge base was developed to analyze the events taking place in the image. The article proposes the method of event analysis based on logical conclusion where the YOLO neural network (NN) results are used as input data. The YOLO NN pops up entries in the image, such as a human being, table, TV set, etc. To confirm the module effectiveness a software system was designed comprising two modules. The first module is intended to test the effectiveness of the motion identification method and save the smallest number of frames necessary to determine the events taking place. The second module is developed to test the effectiveness of the method of analyzing occurring events resulted in the information on the state of controlled territories where video surveillance is performed. The input data for the second module are the saved frames obtained because of the operation of the first system module.

The Impact of Blockchain Technology on Stock Price: An Emprical Study

With the rapid development of blockchain technology, more and more attention has shifted from the theoretical research of blockchain technology to the application of specific business of the company. However, there are few literatures on the quantitative research on the impact of blockchain technology on the company's market value after it is applied to the company's actual business. In this paper, 73 listed companies published blockchain application announcements from 2016 to 2019 are selected as the research objects, and the short-term event analysis method is used to quantitatively analyze the impact of the application about blockchain technology on the market performance of listed companies. The results show that: after the announcement of blockchain application in their own business, listed companies have a more significant abnormal income, which shows that the capital market has a significant positive response to the application of blockchain. Finally, this paper puts forward the theoretical and practical significance, limitations and future research.

Analysis of the relationship between the announcements of dividend payout decisions of football clubs and the returns of shares using the event analysis method

Purpose- Dividend is the share allocated by companies from the profit of the period to payout to their shareholder. The issue of dividend payouts seeks an answer to the question of how much of the profit obtained by companies in the fiscal year will be payed to shareholders. Investors act with two basic expectations when investing in stocks. The first is to earn dividend from the company's profit for the period, the second is to benefit from the increase in stock price and to earn capital gain. Joint stock companies may decide to payout dividends or not. In this context, announcing the decisions to payout or not to payout dividends is important for investors. Referred to as the four major football clubs in Turkey, Besiktas, Fenerbahce, Galatasaray and Trabzonspor's shares are traded on Borsa Istanbul (BIST). Like other BIST companies, clubs have investors and these investors deal with dividend payout decisions. The research aims to bridge the gap in the field. In the study, the relationship between the announcement of the dividend payout decisions of four big clubs operating in BIST and stock returns was examined. Methodology- In the study, five days before and five days after the clubs' Public Disclosure Platform (PDP) notifications were made, stock returns were analyzed using the event analysis method. 2009-2010 / 2019-2020 season data of the clubs were used in the research. Findings- According to the results obtained from the research, announcing that dividends will be payout has a significant and positive effect on stock returns, while announcing that no dividends will be payout has a significant and negative effect on stock returns. Conclusion- Research results are important in terms of revealing the effect of public disclosure announcements on performance. Accordingly, club managers can play a role in increasing financial performance by making the announcements fully, completely and on time within the framework of effective corporate management.

The Stock Market’s Reaction to Unanticipated Catastrophic Event

Several factors influence the stock market; they trigger market over-or under-reactions. The paper aims to identify the effect of a major catastrophic event on stock returns. For this, daily data of stock market indices was used with a total of 210 observations and the effect of catastrophic event, Nepal Earthquake 2015, was tested using the method of event analysis for different event windows. The catastrophic event did not affect stock returns significantly and was resilient to earthquake-induced shocks. The event window (+2, +10) shows the higher and positive abnormal returns which depicts that the market has recovered from the shock in as many as three days. The study shows that stock market in Nepal is semi-strongly inefficient.

Mitochondrial event localiser (MEL) to quantitativelydescribe fission, fusion and depolarisation in the three-dimensional space.

Mitochondrial fission and fusion play an important role not only in maintaining mitochondrial homeostasis but also in preserving overall cellular viability. However, quantitative analysis based on the three-dimensional localisation of these highly dynamic mitochondrial events in the cellular context has not yet been accomplished. Moreover, it remains largely uncertain where in the mitochondrial network depolarisation is most likely to occur. We present the mitochondrial event localiser (MEL), a method that allows high-throughput, automated and deterministic localisation and quantification of mitochondrial fission, fusion and depolarisation events in large three-dimensional microscopy time-lapse sequences. In addition, MEL calculates the number of mitochondrial structures as well as their combined and average volume for each image frame in the time-lapse sequence. The mitochondrial event locations can subsequently be visualised by superposition over the fluorescence micrograph z-stack. We apply MEL to both control samples as well as to cells before and after treatment with hydrogen peroxide (H2O2). An average of 9.3/7.2/2.3 fusion/fission/depolarisation events per cell were observed respectively for every 10 sec in the control cells. With peroxide treatment, the rate initially shifted toward fusion with and average of 15/6/3 events per cell, before returning to a new equilibrium not far from that of the control cells, with an average of 6.2/6.4/3.4 events per cell. These MEL results indicate that both pre-treatment and control cells maintain a fission/fusion equilibrium, and that depolarisation is higher in the post-treatment cells. When individually validating mitochondrial events detected with MEL, for a representative cell for the control and treated samples, the true-positive events were 47%/49%/14% respectively for fusion/fission/depolarisation events. We conclude that MEL is a viable method of quantitative mitochondrial event analysis.

The sudden stops of debt‐led capital inflows, credit crunch, and exchange rate regimes

AbstractBased on the data of 70 developing countries during 1970–2015, we empirically study the relationship between international capital flows and domestic credit. We find that the sudden stop of debt‐led net capital inflows is significantly associated with a domestic credit crunch in developing countries. Moreover, we use the method of event analysis to discover that a flexible exchange rate regime offsets the severity of the credit crunch. These empirical findings are robust to different measures of sudden stops and endogeneity tests.

Echo over the great wall: Spillover effects of QE announcements on Chinese yield curve

This paper examines the spillover effects of announcements on quantitative easing (QE) conducted in developed economies on the Chinese Treasury yield curve. In spite of China’s firewall of cross-boarder capital control, we find that the US QE announcements move the Chinese yield curve immediately and significantly, through the channels of signaling and portfolio balancing. The results are robust across a variety of event analysis methods using reduced-form or structural models. Using the heteroskedasticity assumption for shock identification in an arbitrage-free term structure model, it was identified that the impact of US QE on Chinese yields was comparable, in size and significance, to China’s own monetary policy shocks.

Measurements and Simulations of the Geomagnetically Induced Currents in Low‐Latitude Power Networks During Geomagnetic Storms

AbstractThe issue of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) on large distance ground‐based conductive systems is a global space weather concern nowadays. The low‐latitude power grids are becoming more vulnerable to GICs hazards due to their increasing scale and degree of interconnection. Thus, GICs measurement and modeling in these systems is of great importance. In this study, we present an analysis of the GICs measurement at a Chinese low‐latitude substation during geomagnetic storms. The results show a rough positive correlation between the magnitude of large GIC spikes and dBH/dt spikes. We then built a physical‐based model to simulate the GICs at the low‐latitude substation during storms. It was found that the simulations capture the main active periods of the GICs during the storms with comparative strength of the measurement. This differs from the previous simulation results for high‐latitude regions conducted by Welling et al. (2017; https://doi.org/10.1002/2016SW001505). Furthermore, the event analysis method is applied to evaluate the model performance. The results indicate that the physical‐based model is more applicable than the persistence model in the prediction of GICs at low‐latitude power grids during storms.

The Effects of Rainfall Intensities and Duration on SCS-CN Model Parameters under Simulated Rainfall

The Soil Conservation Service curve number (SCS-CN) method has been widely used in rainfall-runoff modelling; however, the direct effects of rainfall intensities and duration, which are major factors in hydrological engineering design, on its parameters (initial abstraction ratio (λ) and potential maximum storage (S), the latter is transformed into curve number (CN)) have seldom been studied. In this study, we chose simulated rainfall experiments on runoff plots (30 mm/h, 180 min; 60 mm/h, 90 min; 90 mm/h, 60 min) to obtain synchronized rainfall-runoff data and calculated the parameters using general model fitting and event analysis methods every ten minutes throughout the duration. The results indicate that the parameters changed with rainfall intensities and duration. S decreased as the rainfall intensities increased. Under the same rainfall intensity, the S increased with the duration overall. The corresponding λ changed with rainfall intensities and duration, and has no obvious relationship under different rainfall intensities. Initial abstraction in the event analysis method is the same as the actual situation and we chose these parameters obtained with the event analysis method as our selected parameters. These selected parameters and the parameters obtained using Fu et al.’s method which was based on the standardized procedure in NEH-630 were evaluated by the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), the percentage deviation coefficient (PBIAS), and the ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation of measured data (RSR). The results show that the statistics for the selected parameters satisfied the evaluating standard, and have a better value, while the statistics for the parameters obtained by Fu et al.’s method declined as the rainfall intensity increased, and PBAIS was out of the standard range under 90 mm/h rainfall intensity condition. This indicates that the rainfall intensities and duration have important effects on the parameters of the model, and the parameters vary dynamically with the rainfall intensity and duration. These results could be useful for hydrological design in which engineers consider the return period (i.e., rainfall intensities and duration).

Atmospheric Neutrino and Proton Decay Results in Super-Kamiokande

Super-Kamiokande (SK) is a 50 kiloton water Cherenkov detector aiming for the detection of several physics such as solar, atmospheric, astrophysical neutrinos, proton decay, WIMP dark matter, etc. It has been running over 20 years since 1996, and achieved several remarkable outcomes in the field of the particle and astrophysics, one of which is the discovery of the neutrino oscillation, bringing the Nobel Prize in physics 2015. SK still accumulates a large number of neutrino events, and simultaneously the physic target and its sensitivity are extended along with the improvement of the analysis method, such as event reconstruction and background rejection. One of the strong motivations for the atmospheric neutrino oscillation measurement is to measure the mass ordering (hierarchy) between ½2 and ½3. The atmospheric neutrino is sensitive to the mass hierarchy with help of the matter effect which is given when passing through the Earth. We have performed a detailed analysis to discriminate small signature of the mass hierarchy due to the matter effect. Proton decay is a direct signature anticipated by the grand unified theory (GUT) which is the physics beyond the standard model. Though the major decay modes and GUT models are excluded by the past searches, the efforts to search a glimpse of the proton decay signal are being continued with better event reconstruction and analysis method. In this paper the recent results of the atmospheric neutrino measurement and proton decay search using the most updated dataset taken until 2017 spring are described.

A Multi-Step Attack Detection Model Based on Alerts of Smart Grid Monitoring System

Smart Grid Monitoring System(SGMS) is an important means to protect the security of smart grid. The high volumes of alerts generated by SGMS often confuse managers. Automatically handling alerts and extracting attack events is a critical issue for smart grid. Most of the existing security event analysis methods are designed for Internet, which will not be directly applicable to the power grid for high reliability and low attack tolerance requirements. In this paper, a multi-step attack detection model based on alerts of SGMS is proposed. In this model, an alert graph is constructed by IP correlation, and then transformed into candidate attack chains after being aggregated. Consequently, the candidate preliminary attack chains are pruned and denoised by negative causal correlation and non-cascading events. Finally, attack chains and visual attack graphs are formed. Our proposal model needs a little of priori knowledge while automatically extracting multi-step attack events and demonstrating the trajectories among IPs. The experimental results show the model performs well on China Grid data and DARPA 2000 data set.

COVID-19 and the policy of sanctions: An event analysis

The article aims to explore the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the use of sanctions as a foreign policy tool. The following research questions are posed: in what way did COVID-19 affect the policy of sanctions around the world? To what extant did the initiators of sanctions change their restrictions? Where did COVID-19 rank on the global sanctions agenda? What was the position of the UN as a key institution of global governance and what was the reaction of the key countries that initiated the sanctions? The main hypothesis is that COVID-19 has not significantly altered the existing sanctions regime. No single initiator-state has changed its sanctions regime in principle, but states have made a number of humanitarian exemptions. However, these exemptions are limited and sanctions have continued to be imposed as usual. In some areas, COVID-19 has even exacerbated international tensions and raised the risks of sanctions, especially in U. S.—China relations. The hypothesis was tested using the event analysis method of sanctions episodes during the pandemic (March-June 2020). The research provides an analysis of quantity and quality of events and their distribution among initiators. Emphasis is placed on the study of events connected to COVID-19. The results reveal a limited impact of COVID-19 on sanctions policy and highlight the weakness of the UN to affect the behavior of key sanctions initiators even in conditions of a global threat such as COVID-19.

Echo over the Great Wall: Spillover Effects of QE Announcements on Chinese Yield Curve

This paper examines the spillover effects of announcements on quantitative easing (QE) conducted in developed economies on the Chinese Treasury yield curve. In spite of China’s firewall of cross-boarder capital control, we find that the US QE announcements move the Chinese yield curve immediately and significantly, through the channels of signaling and portfolio balancing. The results are robust across a variety of event analysis methods using reduced-form or structural models. Using the heteroskedasticity assumption for shock identification in an arbitrage-free term structure model, it was identified that the impact of US QE on Chinese yields was comparable, in size and significance, to China’s own monetary policy shocks.

What did the Turkish climate movement learn from a global policy failure? Frame shift after the Copenhagen Climate Summit

ABSTRACTNumerous scales in climate change politics might create problems for activists, as it is not always easy to locate the appropriate level(s) according to which they develop collective action frames. Therefore, activists might address various scales while identifying the problem and building strategies accordingly. The Turkish climate movement has been active through protest cycles largely influenced by global climate negotiations. Following the failure of the Copenhagen Climate Summit (2009) in delivering a binding climate deal, the movement shifted its strategy. Using the protest event analysis method and the movement’s archives, this paper attempts to shed light on how the Turkish climate movement learned from this global policy failure and why it switched from the global diagnostic and prognostic framing to a national/local one. Following this, the extent the European and transnational actors contribute to this frame shift will be discussed.

DIRECTIONS OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE FINANCIAL SERVICES MARKET OF UKRAINE

Development of the financial services market is an important component of the national economy’s development. Within this market, credit and investment resources are formed, which are the basis of economic development of the real economy sector of the state. It is this that determines the importance of creating conditions for improving the efficiency of financial institutions, which become intermediaries between persons who have free funds and those economic entities that they need. The outlined justifies the relevance of the topic. Consequently, taking into consideration the objective of the study, the following aim of its implementation was set: to identify and substantiate the main determinants of the development of the financial services market in Ukraine. To achieve this goal, the following tasks were set and solved: to identify the main, most important, measures of transformation of the environment of financial institutions functioning; to substantiate the essence of such measures and the peculiarities of their implementation; to specify basic actions within the limits of separate determinants of the financial services market development, to describe their applied character. Method. In the course of the research, a range of different scientific methods was used. Among the general techniques, it is necessary to allocate methods of observation, comparison, abstraction. It is advisable to include the method of economic analysis, synthesis, system approach, content methods, and event analysis in specific research methods. Results. Universal priorities of financial services markets development in different countries are determined and systematized, the analysis of which made it possible to investigate perspective determinants of the development of such a market in Ukraine, peculiarities of their introduction into the functioning of the financial services sphere are described. Among these measures are the following: increase in the stability of financial institutions, increase the transparency of the functioning of producers and consumers of financial services, raising the level of financial literacy in society, reforming the state regulation system of the activities of financial intermediaries, the formation of the trust infrastructure system. Taking into consideration the received scientific outcomes, the justification of peculiarities on the implementation of these priorities in the system of the financial services market functioning in Ukraine is conducted. Practical implications. The research results obtained in the course of the research implementation regarding the possibilities of changing the financial services market for improving the efficiency of financial institutions work have an applied character, and their implementation will make it possible to form a new environment for the functioning of such economic actors. This will facilitate the transformation of financial resources to increase the formation of investment and loan funds. The results obtained can be used by public authorities that regulate the activities of financial institutions in the process of developing new strategic documents for the development of the financial services market in Ukraine. Value/originality. The conducted research is relevant, considering the significant impact of the financial services market on the development of the national economy, the proposed measures for the development of such a market are applied and can be used by public authorities in the regulation of the activities of financial institutions. This research has been conducted within the framework of the scientific work implementation Department of Finance, Banking and Insurance, Chernihiv National University of Technology, Ukraine on the following topics: “Financial stability of economic systems in crisis conditions of management” (No. 0115U001149) and “Development of financial intermediaries in the turbulent conditions of the national economy’s functioning” (No. 0115U001149).

High-risk behavior in patients with alcohol dependence.

Context:Severity of alcohol dependence is related to the high-risk behavior of alcohol dependents.Aim:To assess the high-risk behavior in patients with alcohol dependence and study the association between them.Settings and Design:This is a descriptive study of high-risk behavior in patients with alcohol dependence, conducted over a period of 15-month duration that is from January 2011 to April 2012 on 200 alcohol-dependent patients (178 men and 22 women) in the Department of Psychiatry, Mamata Medical College and General Hospital, Khammam (TS), India.Materials and Methods:Patients and their caregivers fulfilling the selection criteria were included in the study, and informed consent was obtained. Interview was carried out after 2 weeks to rule out the possibility of the presence of withdrawal symptoms in alcohol-dependent patients. Tools used for data collection include Sociodemographic and Clinical Profile Schedule, Clinical Institute of Withdrawal Assessment for Alcohol, Mini–Mental Status Examination, Severity of Alcohol Dependence Questionnaire, and High Risk Behavior Questionnaire.Statistical Analysis:Descriptive statistics, Chi-square test, and logistic regression test were used.Results:The occurrence of high-risk behavior was substantial among patients with alcohol dependence syndrome. Event analysis method indicated that road traffic accidents associated with prior heavy drinking was the most frequently observed high-risk behavior.Conclusions:The study reiterates the relationship between alcohol and sexual behavior and also highlights that individuals dependent on alcohol are a specifically vulnerable group.

Кульмінаційний момент боротьби за «правління душами». семіотична перспектива питань ідентичності та поділу на «ми-вони»

The objective of the article is to present the mechanisms of identity policy and its metalanguage based on individual events of the asymmetrical conflict known as the fight for the soul government. We used historical methods to describe the sequence of conflict events as well as statistical data on the population of the state, identity and religious issues, and membership in the Polish Workers' Party. The content analysis method was applied to the speeches of decision-makers, analysis of texts and propaganda films. We used the interpretation method and the event analysis method to disclose messages at the meta-language level and explain the significance of individual actions of the parties to the conflict. The article presents the chronology and dynamics of the conflict. In the context of individual events, we proposed an explanation of the politics of that time, the events were decrypted as a meta-language that speaks to the recipient's identity. We also presented the measures that were carried out by the PPR to be accepted by society as "theirs". The reasons for the secular authorities' defeat for the government of souls were named, namely: a) sharpened post-war needs of society related to the sense of security; b) failure to perceive secular power as "their own" by a large part of society; c) atheism was not the best solution for the needs of ordinary people; d) the church according to the vision of S. Vyshinsky was aimed at ordinary people; e) the church was a daily element of human life, development, and formation; f) the communists used the meta-language of helplessness (the arrest of the image of Our Lady of Yasnagura (Luminous Mount)); g) the fullness of secular power in the hands of the Communists meant the absence of political opponents on whom the Communists could blame for the existing problems.

A Hybrid Key Item Locating Method to Assist Elderly Daily Life Using Internet of Things

With the advancement of medical technology and the rise of medical awareness, the average life expectancy has risen. Advanced countries have stepped into the aged society successively. Building a senior citizen-friendly environment has become an important issue. On one hand, senior citizens are likely to forget where key items are placed due to hypomnesia. Life is inconvenient for them. On the other hand, the proportion of elderly living alone or living only with spouse increases. Without children's accompany, a senior citizen's life could be in danger if he or she suddenly feels uncomfortable, and cannot find the therapeutic drugs instantly. As the information and communication technology has improved in recent years, the Internet of Things technology has gradually become more mature. The arisen of IoT is not only helpful to our daily life in terms of traffic and shopping, but also with clinical knowledge and experience is applicable to build the environment of health care and increase the quality of home care service for senior citizens. In this paper, we attempt to build a life supporting mechanism in the home environment of senior citizens based on the architecture of Internet of Things. This work proposes a new type of hybrid calculation algorithm which combines xBeacon sensing equipment, Received Signal Strength Indication (RSSI) positioning, event analysis method and intelligent cutting algorithm to cut the possible range where the object may be placed into sections, so as to estimate the location of the key items. By tracking key items, elderly people can reduce anxiety and uncomfortable feeling caused by missing key items. To effectively record and analyze routine behavior pattern, this proposed mechanism can support the mobility of the elderly to maintain independent daily life and is helpful for the implementation of "home-based care for the aged" and "aging in place".