Policy Evaluation Research Articles

Causal Inference in Transport Policy Evaluation: Principle, Method and Application of Regression Discontinuity Design

The methods of causal inference have swept the social sciences in recent years, and regression discontinuity design is one of the typical methods in causal inference. In the field of estimation and impact of traffic policy in developing countries, the research on cause-and-effect relationships is extremely limited. This paper introduces the principles, methods of regression discontinuity design, research application in the field of transport policy, and compares regression discontinuity design with methods of causal inference on the advantages and disadvantages in the field of transport policy. The purpose of this paper is to introduce the regression discontinuity design method into the field of transport policy evaluation, to look forward to its application prospects and to provide basic support for the application of regression discontinuity design in the field of developing countries' transport policy.

Evaluating heavy metals-related risk in staple crops and making financing strategy for corresponding soil remediation across China

China's staple crops face heavy metal (HMs) contamination, a widespread issue lacking a national assessment. We used machine learning (ML) to assess risks of 8 HMs in rice, wheat, and maize, and estimated a financing strategy for soil remediation via linear optimization and computable general equilibrium (CGE). The accumulation of HMs in crops depends on Soil-HMs, climate, soil properties, and crop types. Cd and Hg pose major soil pollution risks, while Cr, Pb, and Cd are the most threatening in crops. High-risk zones are located at the warm temperature and subtropical zones, with wheat most vulnerable. Over a quarter (26.77%) of the nation's croplands are classified as high-risk, with a significant 60.89% falling into the medium-risk category, leaving merely 12.34% of the agricultural land in a safe condition. The estimated remediation cost is 58596.73 billion RMB and the crop loss is 808.03 billion RMB in a ten-year remediation period at the context of secure crop supply. The reallocation of social investment rather than raising new taxation for the remediation is beneficial to the GDP increase and social welfare despite some loss in the household income and enterprise income. This study provides a comprehensive evaluation for Crop-HMs risk and remediation policy, crucial for national crop security.

사회정책과정 단계별 관련 괘의 사회정책적 해석과 정책적 과제

The purpose of this study is to interpret the social policy situation of the relevant hexagrams of the stages in social policy process from the standpoint of the social policy by using the framework which is sought through modifying and supplementing the existing framework and to identify its policy tasks. The policy tasks of the revevant hexagrams related to each stages in social policy process identified through this study can be summarized as follows. First, the policy task of hexagram in the social problem forming stage is to seek new approach or theoretical perspective on social problems Second, the policy task of hexagram in the social policy agenda forming stage is about which of the various social policy agenda forming factors should be prioritized and applied. Third, the policy task of the hexagrm in social policy decision-making stage is about what should be reflected as the core content when setting social policy goals. Fourth, the policy task of hexagram in social policy implementing stage is that communication between persons concerned social policy should be emphasized in order to achieve social policy goals. Fifth. The policy task of hexagram in the social policy evaluating stage is that among the various types of policy evaluation, performance evaluation or program evaluation should be given the highest priority. The policy tasks of of relevant hexagrams in the stages in social policy process through interpreting the social policy situation from the standpoint of social policy have been identified. If so, it can be said that The Book of Change is a human heritage that should be used in various ways in the field of social welfare and social policy.

Combining the Capability Approach and System Dynamics for Well‐Being Oriented Policy‐Making

ABSTRACTPolicymakers are increasingly focusing on well‐being. However, the development and ex‐ante assessment of well‐being science‐based policies are not widespread. The Capability Approach (CA) offers a theoretical framework for understanding well‐being and the policies aimed at its improvement. The CA does not provide means to analyse how well‐being evolves over time as a result of the complex interrelations between its constituent components. Additionally, the CA literature provides few analytical techniques for conducting ex‐ante policy evaluation. To overcome these challenges, we propose an approach that combines the CA with the System Dynamics (SD) methodology. The SD method uses modelling and simulation to create insights into the structure and behaviour of complex problems to support policy‐making. While SD is commonly used to examine well‐being issues, utilising well‐being frameworks like the CA is rare. In this paper, we explore both the theoretical and practical benefits of integrating the CA and SD for well‐being‐oriented policy‐making. To aid the practical application of the ideas presented in this paper, we present an illustrative example, a template for modellers, and outline a procedure for an integrated approach to developing well‐being‐oriented policies.

Implementation of Bail-In in Facing Bank Indonesia's Liquidity Assistance Deficit (BLBI)

The banking crisis that occurred in 1997-1998 prompted the government to distribute Bank Indonesia Liquidity Assistance (BLBI) as a measure to stabilize the economy. BLBI has a legal basis that refers to Law Number 13 of 1968 concerning the Central Bank and Law Number 23 of 1999 concerning Banking. However, the implementation of BLBI cannot be separated from massive irregularities, as revealed in the 2000 BPK-RI Investigative Audit Report, which recorded the misuse of funds amounting to Rp144.536 trillion or 95.5% of the total funds disbursed. This study uses a normative approach by examining the regulations that are the basis for the implementation of BLBI and policy evaluations related to handling the banking crisis. The analysis also includes the application of the bail-in principle in the Law on the Prevention and Handling of Financial System Crises (PPKSK) in response to the problem of irregularities in the distribution of BLBI. The results of the study show that the implementation of BLBI has experienced many violations, both in terms of distribution and use of funds, due to weak supervision and accountability. As a solution, the bail-in approach is implemented through open bank bail-in mechanisms such as capital surcharge or debt-to-equity swap, as well as closed bank bail-in such as the transfer of bank assets and liabilities (Purchase and Assumption). This approach does not involve the State Budget, offers transparency, and strengthens the protection of the national financial system, as stipulated in Law Number 24 of 2004 concerning the Deposit Insurance Corporation.

Beyond the Average: Machine Learning for Personalized Causal Inference in Econometrics

In the realm of econometrics, the estimation of average treatment effects (ATE) has traditionally dominated causal inference, often oversimplifying the complex, heterogeneous nature of individual responses to interventions. This study introduces a nuanced approach, "Beyond the Average: Personalized Causal Inference in Econometrics with Machine Learning, " which leverages advanced machine learning (ML) algorithms to shift the focus towards personalized causal effects (PCE), thereby uncovering the variability in treatment effects across individuals. Utilizing a synthetic dataset designed to reflect realistic economic behaviors and responses, we employed Gradient Boosting Machines (GBM) and Causal Forests among other ML techniques to estimate conditional average treatment effects (CATE), providing insights into the heterogeneity of treatment impacts. Our methodology encompassed comprehensive data preprocessing, feature selection based on economic theory and ML insights, and rigorous model validation processes. The results reveal significant heterogeneity in treatment effects, challenging the conventional reliance on ATE and highlighting the importance of considering individual characteristics in policy design and evaluation. Specifically, younger individuals and those with lower income and education levels exhibited markedly different responses to the financial literacy intervention, suggesting that personalized approaches could significantly enhance the effectiveness of such programs. This study not only demonstrates the feasibility and value of applying ML to econometric analysis for personalized causal inference but also lays the groundwork for future research aimed at integrating these methodologies into practical policy - making. By moving beyond the average and embracing the complexity of individual differences, econometric analysis can offer more targeted, effective, and equitable solutions to societal challenges.

Influence of Social Context and Gender Gap Awareness on Women’s Mobility on Public Transportation

A gender gap in mobility, although with different levels, exists everywhere. Several factors are linked to this gap, such as females’ daily schedules and duties, economic aspects, or preferences. Women’s personal risk perception and its counterpart, i.e., actual (in)security in the transportation system, are related aspects as well. This research focuses on these last factors and adds a novel perspective: the influence of the social context and its awareness of the gender gap. To this end, a twofold methodological approach was applied to the cities of Barcelona and Budapest. It included the comprehensive evaluation of local policies aimed at closing gender gap in mobility as well as the distribution and analysis of an ad hoc developed survey. The main research findings indicate that harassment on public transportation is associated with general societal gender dynamics and behaviors. Actions taken by local administrations in the pursuit of gender equality in mobility become effective in the medium term, leading to a decrease in severe aggressions. Among these actions, awareness-raising plays a key role. First, women gain self-confidence and increase their own commitment to the cause; second, a snowball effect takes place, causing the rejection of harassment and the fight against it to spread across different social spheres.

A maternal and child health administrative cohort in Scotland: the utility of linked administrative data for understanding early years' outcomes and inequalities

IntroductionThe early years are considered one of the most impactful points in the life course to intervene to improve population health and reduce health inequalities because, for example, both ill health and social disadvantage can track into adulthood. Scotland's outstanding systems for data linkage offer untapped potential to further our understanding of when and why inequalities in child health, development and wellbeing emerge. This understanding is vital for the consideration of policy options for their reduction. MethodsBirth registrations, hospital episodes, dispensed community prescriptions, child health reviews and immunisation records were linked for 198,483 mother-child pairs for babies born in Scotland from October 2009 to the end of March 2013, followed up until April 2018 (average age 6 years). ResultsOutcomes include birthweight and newborn health, dispensed prescriptions for mental health medications, tobacco smoke exposure, infant feeding, immunisations, hospitalisation for unintentional injuries, socio-emotional, cognitive and motor development, and overweight and obesity. Several measures are repeated throughout childhood allowing examination of timing, change and persistence. Socio-economic circumstances (SECs) include neighbourhood deprivation, relationship status of the parents, and occupational status. Descriptive analyses highlight large inequalities across all outcomes. Inequalities are greater when measured by family-level as opposed to area-level, aspects of socio-economic circumstances and for persistent or more severe outcomes. For example, 41.4% of the most disadvantaged children (living with a lone, economically inactive mother in the most deprived fifth of areas) were exposed to tobacco smoke in utero and in infancy/toddlerhood compared to <1% in the least disadvantaged children (living with a married, managerial/professional mother in the least deprived quintile of areas). ConclusionThis novel linkage provides a longitudinal picture of health throughout the early years and how this varies according to family- and area-level measures of SECs. Future linkages could include other family members (e.g. siblings, grandmothers) and other sectors (e.g. education, social care). The creation of additional cohorts would allow for long-term and efficient evaluation of policies as natural experiments.

Transforming Public Policy in Developing Countries: A Comprehensive Review of Digital Implementation

This article discusses the process of digitization in the implementation of public policy within developing countries, its critical success factors, challenges, and lessons learned from case studies. Public administration can improve efficiencies, transparency, and effectiveness through the infusion of digital technologies into processes implicated in the making, execution, and evaluation of public policies. Key success factors identified include robust digital infrastructure, clear strategic vision and leadership, effective stakeholder engagement, capacity building, and a supportive regulatory framework. In light of these potential benefits, developing countries experience enormous challenges such as inadequate infrastructure, political instability, socio-political resistance, and gaps in digital literacy. Through a review of empirical case studies from countries such as Estonia, South Korea, China, Bangladesh, and Rwanda, the article identifies key lessons that can inform the digital strategies of other developing nations. The discussion addresses the challenges of sustaining digital infrastructure, including ongoing maintenance costs, the need for continuous technology updates, and the risks of obsolescence. Furthermore, the article explores the significance of capacity building, public-private partnerships, and evolving regulatory frameworks in ensuring the long-term viability of digital policies. The future directions proposed underscore the necessity of adopting adaptable, resilient, and well-governed digital infrastructures to fully realize the benefits of digital public policy in the context of developing countries.

EVALUASI KEBIJAKAN PENGURANGAN PENGGUNAAN KANTONG PLASTIK (STUDI KASUS DI PASAR PABEAN SURABAYA)

The problem of plastic waste is an important issue, one of which is for the City of Surabaya, therefore the Surabaya City Government formed Perwali Surabaya No. 16 of 2022 concerning Reducing the Use of Plastic Bags. However, in its implementation, there are still many business actors who still use plastic bags, one of which is in the Pabean Market. This study aims to determine the success and provide recommendations for policies to reduce the use of plastic bags in the Pabean Market, Surabaya City. This research uses qualitative research methods, with the technique of determining snowball informants. Data collection techniques were carried out by interview, observation, and documentation methods. The research focuses on policy evaluation theory, namely input, process, outputs, and outcomes. Data analysis techniques are carried out by collecting data, condensing data, presenting data, and drawing conclusions. The results showed that the policy of reducing the use of plastic bags in the Pabean Market has not gone well because it has not fulfilled the evaluation measures, namely input, process, outputs, and outcomes. There needs to be improvements in the implementation of this policy so that obstacles can be overcome and this policy can run well in the future.

EVALUATION OF HOUSING FINANCING ASSISTANCE POLICIES FOR LOW-INCOME PEOPLE IN DKI JAKARTA

This study aims to find out how to evaluate housing financing assistance policies for low-income people in the DKI Jakarta area. The research used a descriptive research design with a quantitative approach. The data collection technique used was a mixed method through respondent questionnaire surveys, interviews, and literature studies. The sample in this study consisted of respondents who had received the benefits of housing funding assistance policies and those who had not. The results of this study show that the leveling in the evaluation of housing finance assistance policies can be measured based on two indicators, namely, the policy has been evenly and comprehensively distributed, and the usefulness of the policy in overcoming the housing backlog in DKI Indonesia is felt by MBR. Meanwhile, from the utility aspect, the housing financing financing assistance policy is beneficial for MBR in acquiring subsidized houses. Furthermore, there are still shortcomings that must be corrected both from the supply aspect housing, strengthening policy monitoring and evaluation, strengthening governance and institutions, strengthening laws and regulations, strengthening collaboration and synergy between stakeholders, and strengthening collaboration. This study offers valuable insights for policymakers to design more equitable and sustainable housing financing strategies, addressing critical socio-economic issues in urban housing.

The impact of an integrated alcohol policy: The example of Lithuania.

Although integrated alcohol policies, characterised by being consistent, structurally connected and interdependent, are considered to be best practices, very few evaluations of such policies exist. We evaluated the impact of two phases of integrated alcohol policies implemented in Lithuania in 2008/2009 and 2017/2018 on adult (15+ years of age) alcohol per capita consumption. Alcohol per capita consumption was the main outcome, based on national data from Statistics Lithuania. Time-series analyses using generalised additive mixed models were used, and unrecorded consumption trends were examined. A sensitivity analysis was conducted with data from the World Health Organization. The two phases of integrated alcohol policies were associated with average reductions in adult alcohol per capita consumption of almost 1 litre (-0.88 L; 95% confidence interval -1.43; -0.34). Sensitivity analyses with comparable international data on Lithuania yielded similar results. Integrated alcohol policies had a substantial effect on the average level of consumption. However, the effect of major single policies for Lithuania and other Baltic countries has been estimated to be of about the same magnitude. We conclude that in order to be successful, integrated alcohol policies should include at least one major effective population-based policy.

Equity of financial protection for health in high-income countries: scoping review protocol

IntroductionFinancial protection (FP) is a central function of health systems to enhance access to essential care and improve health equity. We aim to characterise evidence on the distribution of FP...

A review on European sustainable practices in end-of-life vehicles management.

The management of end-of-life vehicles (ELVs) has become a significant environmental and economic challenge due to the substantial volumes of hazardous waste generated. This article analyses sustainable practices in ELV management across Europe, with a focus on contributions to the circular economy. The systematic literature review, conducted for articles published in the period 2016-2024, identifies five topics: (1) policy and regulatory frameworks evaluations and suggestions; (2) economic and environmental benefits through optimization modelling; (3) trends and performances analysis; (4) advanced treatment technologies and their impact and (5) economic and environmental impacts assessments. The findings highlight the importance of state-of-the-art recycling processes and coordinated stakeholder efforts in improving ELV management outcomes. In addition, the correlation between ELVs recycling and gross domestic product (GDP) was analysed. Data analysis for 27 European countries in the period 2016-2021 shows a moderate correlation. Specifically, countries with stronger economies tend to produce more ELVs, distinguishing two clusters when GDP is 35,000 € per capita. By adopting best practices and innovative approaches, European countries can enhance their ELV management systems, support a more circular economy and sustainable development. This work highlights the possible correlation between GDP per capita and ELV recycling rates across the European Union, the identification of economic clusters, and the critical role that advanced recycling technologies play in improving sustainability.

National unity: A systematic review from the perspective of policy effectiveness experience

National unity is a matter of great concern for many countries around the world today. The study of policy evaluation is an important aspect of the study of national unity. The evaluation of policy implementation effects can help policymakers analyze whether there are problems in the formulation and implementation of the policy, thereby promoting further policy adjustments to better achieve national unity. This article adopts thematic searches and a systematic literature review as research methods. Through the systematic review, it summarizes and analyzes the research on national unity policies across different regions and countries. The article has two objectives: First, to explore the current perspectives in the research on national unity policies, and second, to analyze the state of research regarding the effectiveness of national unity policies. Among the 35 papers analyzed, 7 were on integration policy, 6 were on education policy and 4 were on language policy. To a certain extent, this reflects the perspectives of some countries in Europe, Asia and Africa, including France, Greece, Russia, Turkey, China, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Kenya, South Africa, Nigeria and other countries on the governance of national unity. Research on policy effectiveness is mainly conducted from the perspectives of policy content and policy implementation. However, there is little analysis of successful cases that achieved the desired goals. The main contributions of this article are as follows: first, it summarizes and identifies the characteristics of national solidarity-related policies in different continents and countries. Secondly, the experience of the success and failure of the national unity policy is studied and summarized. In addition, this article also found that there are still gaps in the research on successful experiences and causes.

Pancasila sebagai Pilar dalam Sistem Hukum Anti Terorisme di Indonesia

Pancasila, as the foundation of the Indonesian state, plays an important role in the legal system, including in the context of anti-terrorism law. This study aims to explore how the principles of Pancasila function as pillars in the formation and implementation of anti-terrorism law in Indonesia. The research method used is a qualitative approach with a literature review as the main method, which includes analysis of academic literature, legal documents, and interviews with legal experts. The results of the study indicate that the principles of Pancasila Belief in One Almighty God, Just and Civilized Humanity, Unity of Indonesia, Democracy Guided by the Wisdom of Deliberation and Representation, and Social Justice for All Indonesian People provide a moral and ideological framework underlying the creation and implementation of anti-terrorism law in Indonesia. Pancasila ensures that counter-terrorism efforts remain in accordance with the values ​​of humanity, social justice, and national unity. However, challenges such as potential human rights violations and abuse of authority need to be addressed to ensure that anti-terrorism law remains in line with the principles of Pancasila. This study recommends strengthening the enforcement of human rights, inclusiveness in policy making, and periodic evaluation and revision of anti-terrorism policies to improve their effectiveness and conformity to the country's core values.

A family-centric, comprehensive nurse-led home oxygen programme for neonatal chronic lung disease: home oxygen policy evaluation (HOPE) study.

Considerable variation and little objective evidence exists to guide the use of supplemental oxygen therapy in infants with neonatal chronic lung disease (nCLD) after hospital discharge. We developed a new policy utilizing regular oximetry downloads to help determine commencement and titration of low flow oxygen. The aim of this policy is to improve safety and uniformity in practice and potentially lead to improvements in outcomes including the number of infants being discharged on home oxygen therapy (HOT) and length of stay (LOS). This single-centre pre- and post-implementation study included 86 and 94 infants <32weeks' gestation (pre- vs. post-implementation) meeting definition of nCLD. The primary outcomes were (1) successful implementation of the new policy, (2) changes in number of patients discharged on HOT and (3) in LOS. Secondary outcomes were changes in feeding mode at discharge, total length of HOT, readmission to hospital within the first year of life and neurodevelopmental outcomes at 8months post menstrual age amongst infants treated with HOT. The policy was successfully implemented with 100 % of infants with nCLD receiving downloads in the post-implementation epoch. Pre-implementation 36 % (31 of 85) of infants with nCLD were treated with HOT vs. 17 % (16 of 94) post-implementation (p=0.03). There was no significant difference in LOS or any of the secondary outcomes. A protocolised approach to decision making using predetermined parameters regarding the need for supplemental oxygen in neonates with nCLD is practical and achievable and may result in fewer neonates requiring HOT.

The Strategies to Improve Primary Health Care Services: A Scoping Review

Context: Evaluation of health policies and identification of their challenges are vital for improving and implementing reforms in the healthcare system. The present study was conducted to identify interventions aimed at improving primary healthcare (PHC) services in Iran. Evidence Acquisition: This research utilizes a scoping review to examine reform interventions in PHC services across 10 selected countries: Qatar, Oman, Turkey, Georgia, Armenia, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kazakhstan, and Kuwait. The study covers areas such as the PHC delivery system, human resource management, financial mechanisms, and the framework of community participation and intersectoral collaboration from 2010 to 2022. Results: The main reform strategies for PHC systems in the reviewed countries included the establishment of family medical centers with nurse support as a comprehensive strategy for service provision in public health centers; providing comprehensive and quality healthcare service packages including maternal and child health, infectious disease immunization, chronic disease monitoring, and dental care services; health education; access to essential medications; improvement of electronic health services; implementation of health promotion and continuous prevention programs; capacity enhancement; and a greater focus on health screening programs and grading of healthcare centers. Conclusions: The major findings from the reviewed countries indicate that healthcare policymakers focus on providing preventive care services, reducing maternal and child mortality, and increasing life expectancy. Programs such as referral systems, service grading, and the adoption of electronic health services are part of their reform agenda.

AN EVALUATION OF THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE PROVISION OF LAND USE POLICY FOR BUILDING HOUSES IN RURAL BANGLADESH

The paper provides a comprehensive evaluation of the national land use policy in Bangladesh, highlighting the gaps in implementation and the need for strategic improvements for building houses using minimum agricultural land in rural areas of Bangladesh. The main objectives of the policy evaluation research are to explore the extent of the intervention of the National Land Use Policy 2001 that has achieved the objective of minimum use of agricultural land, to determine whether the authority has made the rural people aware of building model houses, multistorey buildings, and planned residential areas in the village and finally to find out the critical factors for effective implementation of national land use policy. It has been used as a mixed evaluation research method with both qualitative and quantitative approaches. Data were collected online using a semistructured questionnaire and checklist for respondent interviews. The main results of the policy evaluation revealed that the objectives of the policy are not achieved and effectively implemented for numerous reasons as such, the implementers are reluctant to implement and make aware the villagers, responsible implementing agencies are not fully well-defined, people are unaware and do not know about the policy, lack of village development planning and design, overpopulation and segregation of families, poverty, lack of monitoring by the ministry, unorganized urbanization and industrialization, local political influence, absence of land zoning and union parishad are unwilling to enforce their laws, etc. To implement the policy effectively, a joint effort of the local government bodies, local communities, and all local administration departments would be required, and each organization’s role would be well classified, and payment or loan support would be transferred to the rural people of Bangladesh.

Patterns, clusters, and transitions in U.S. state ENDS policy implementation: 2010-2020.

Electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS), such as e-cigarettes, have become increasingly used across the world. To respond to global public health challenges associated with vaping, governments have implemented numerous ENDS policies. This research highlights the patterns, clustering, and transitions in U.S. state ENDS policy implementation from 2010 to 2020. Policy data for tobacco and ENDS policies primarily from the Americans for Nonsmokers' Rights Foundation (ANRF) were analyzed for the years 2010 to 2020 for all fifty states and Washington, D.C. Patterns and clusters of policies were assessed. Latent trajectories were modeled for ENDS policies across states over time. ENDS policies commonly have analogous tobacco control policies in place prior to their implementation. ENDS policies in states were commonly implemented in "bundles." The temporal trajectories of ENDS policy implementation occurred in 3 latent forms. A majority of states were "catch-up implementers," indicating their slow initial implementation but stronger position by the end of the period of observation in 2020. These trajectories of ENDS policies were not associated with any individual tobacco control policy in place at the start of the trajectory in 2010. The development of ENDS policies in U.S. states has been temporally and geographically uneven. Many states that had initially been slow to implement ENDS policies caught up by 2020. The implementation of policy "bundles" was common. The clustering of policies in bundles has important methodological implications for analyses, which should be considered in ENDS policy evaluations.