European Union Referendum Research Articles

The EU Referendum in Northern Ireland: Closing Borders, Re-Opening Border Debates

The UK decision to leave the European Union (EU) following a referendum in June 2016 fundamentally alters the country’s relationship with the EU, with its European neighbours, with the rest of the world and potentially with its own constituent units. It is clear that different parts of the UK will be impacted differently by this decision and by the unfolding exit terms and process. In this context, Northern Ireland is considered to be particularly vulnerable. This article examines the referendum campaign in Northern Ireland by detailing input from the Northern Ireland administration, political parties, civil society and external figures. The article suggests that the overall referendum campaign in Northern Ireland was hamstrung by the opposing positions taken by key political protagonists, particularly Sinn Féin and the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). This produced a challenging context for the referendum debate in Northern Ireland. The post-referendum period has also been marked by persistent differences in relation to how best to approach specific Northern Ireland issues and challenges. A continued absence of clear positions and a lack of contingency planning underline a poor level of preparedness for future political developments.

Facts or Feelings, Facts and Feelings? The Post‐Democracy Narrative in the Brexit Debate

This article begins with the widely asked question, which arose after the European Union (EU) Referendum in the UK; how do we explain that people's views and opinions so drastically diverge from experts? We consider the recurring narrative that the outcome of the Referendum portrays a post‐factual democracy in which people who voted for the UK to leave the EU no longer trust the facts‐based arguments of experts, but rather vote for politicians who represent an outcome which they feel is more desirable to them. We propose that this narrative is simplistic and that we must seek to explore the way both sides of the debate used, and failed to use, facts and feelings to support their arguments.

The UK and EU Foreign and Security Policy: An Optional Extra

AbstractForeign and security policy were not areas in which Prime Minister Cameron was seeking to renegotiate the relationship between the UK and the European Union (EU), but security may be a key issue in the EU referendum. The untangling of Britain's foreign and security policy from the EU following a Brexit vote would be relatively uncomplicated. The EU's arrangements for collective foreign and security policy, the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) and Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP), are conducted on an intergovernmental basis which allows the UK to preserve independence in its diplomacy while allowing for the coordination of policy where interests are held in common with other member states. The UK retains substantial diplomatic and military capabilities which would allow it to continue to pursue a separate national foreign, security and defence policy in the case of either a ‘Leave’ or ‘Remain’ outcome.

Interpreting foreign policy: National, comparative and regional studies

This Special Issue advances an interpretive research programme into Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA) and International Relations by showcasing new work on the study of foreign policy and regional cooperation. This introductory article explains the rationale and contents of the Special Issue in three parts. The opening part explains how the contributions complement the broader study of ideas in FPA and International Relations through a critique of methodological positivism in the social sciences. The second part elaborates the theoretical framework used to cohere the collection, which centres on the study of ‘situated agents’ who, when confronted with policy dilemmas, draw on inherited traditions to inform their foreign policy practices. This is accompanied by a methods case study centring on David Cameron’s European Union referendum strategy, which is used to illustrate the practical ways in which one can conduct interpretivist research into foreign policy. In conclusion, we spell out how the contributors conducted their work to advance the interpretivist research programme.

What Determines Demand for European Union Referendums?

Notwithstanding elite opposition to referendums as inconsistent with theories of representative democracy, the 27-nation European Election Study finds that 63 per cent of EU citizens want a vote on EU treaties. One explanation is that the majority want more popular participation in politics; another is that referendums are demanded by those negative about the performance of their governors at national and EU levels; a third is that demand is higher where referendums are part of the national context. Multi-level statistical analysis shows greater support for the hypotheses that citizens dissatisfied with government performance are more likely to want referendums to check their governors and that national context matters. However, dissatisfied EU citizens are a minority; most who endorse EU referendums are actually pro-EU. This lowers the risk of defeat if the EU consulted its citizens in a pan-European referendum.

Direct democracy and regional integration: Citizens' perceptions of treaty implications and the Irish reversal on Lisbon

AbstractAnalyses of voting in European Union referendums typically distinguish between ‘second‐order’ effects and the impact of substantive ‘issues’. In order to explain change in referendum outcome, two types of substantive issues are distinguished in this article. Focusing on Irish voting in the Lisbon Treaty referendums and using data from post‐referendum surveys, it is found that perceptions of treaty implications outperform underlying attitudes to EU integration in predicting vote choice at both referendums, and perceptions of treaty implications are strong predictors of vote change between the referendums. The findings have broadly positive implications for normative assessments of the usefulness of direct democracy as a tool for legitimising regional integration advance.

The Cambusters: The Conservative European Union Referendum Rebellion of October 2011

The backbench rebellion that hit the Coalition government in October 2011 was one of the largest Commons revolts of the postwar era, on any issue. But it was not just its size that was noteworthy. This article outlines ten points about the origins of the vote, its timing, its composition, and the nature of the divisions it revealed. Facilitated by recent procedural innovations in the Commons, the rebellion was both evidence of a longer‐term rise in dissent amongst MPs of all parties, as well as other medium‐and short‐term factors within the Conservative party. It leaves the Prime Minister caught in an impossible triangle, attempting to satisfy his pro‐European Liberal Democrat partners in the Coalition, while keeping his Euro‐sceptic rebels happy, and yet retaining enough credibility in European capitals to negotiate successfully.

Ireland's EU Referendum Experience

The purpose of this article is twofold. First, it surveys Ireland's European Union referendum experience, tracing the key actors, issues and political dynamics of seven European referendums from 1973 to 2008. It unpicks the institutional rules of the referendum game in Ireland stemming from the McKenna and Coughlan judgements, the operation of the Referendum Commission and the effect of this institutional environment on referendum campaigns and outcomes. Second, building on a framework originally developed by Darcy and Laver (1990), this article investigates the emergence of a dynamic in Irish referendums on EU treaties with two key elements: elite withdrawal and populist capture.

Do Campaigns Matter? The Contribution of European Union Referendum Campaigns to Broad Political Knowledge

Do Campaigns Matter? The Contribution of European Union Referendum Campaigns to Broad Political Knowledge

A Paradise on the Oder? ethnicity, europeanization, and the EU referendum in a Polish-German border city

As the European Union (EU) expanded eastward in 2004, it explicitly sought to deterritorialize its internal border regions in an effort to create a transnational “European” space. Utilizing the twin border cities of Stubice, Poland and Frankfurt an-der-Oder, Germany, as an ethnographic case study, this essay examines the historical construction of ethnicity in the Polish/German border regions, the way processes of Europeanization and emergent transnational “European” identities interact with existing ethnic structures through crossborder interactions, and the ways in which advertising during Poland's 2003 EU accession campaign made claims about the meaning of “Europe.” Because border regions are a location of especially high transnational contact and interaction, they are a particularly salient context in which to examine the production of meaning engendered by the EU's expansion. To this end, this essay argues that the processes of Europeanization can both create new possibilities for expressing identity and simultaneously reinforce ethnic and national divisions.

When Europe matters: The impact of political information on voting behaviour in EU referendums

This article investigates how voters decide in referendums on European integration. More specifically, it analyses how political information influences voting behaviour. It argues that political information conditions the way in which people make decisions in referendums. The impact of political information is examined not only at the individual, but also at the contextual level. It is hypothesized that variations in the context of the referendum – the intensity of the campaign – produce differences in the way in which citizens act in referendums. As the intensity of the referendum campaign increases, more information is available to citizens and voters will rely more heavily on sophisticated criteria, such as attitudes and issue positions on the European Union (EU). While the informational context influences voting patterns, individuals also vary in their awareness of politics. It is argued that people with high levels of political awareness receive more information and consequently rely more on their own attitudes and less on elite cues when deciding. These theoretical propositions are tested by analysing survey data from EU referendums in Denmark, Ireland and Norway.

Projecting EU Referendums

This study tests competing hypotheses about public support for European integration and projects referendum voting behaviour. It emphasizes anti-immigration sentiments as a key variable for understanding reluctance about integration. Drawing on survey data, it is shown that anti-immigration sentiments, economic considerations and the evaluation of domestic governments are the strongest predictors of both attitudinal support for integration and individuals’ propensity to vote ‘yes’ in a referendum on the enlargement of the European Union (EU).

Bridging the Micro-Macro Gap. A Multilevel Approach to Voter Behavior in the Nordic European Union Referendums

Bridging the Micro-Macro Gap. A Multilevel Approach to Voter Behavior in the Nordic European Union Referendums

E´lite vs. People? Eurosceptic Public Opinion in Estonia

This paper discusses Estonian public debate and public opinion regarding the pros and cons of joining the European Union (EU). It is shown that a stark contrast exists between the dispositions of Estonian e´lites and mass public opinion--the former unambiguously pro-European, and the latter considerably eurosceptical. This paper aims to uncover the reasons behind that euroscepticism through focusing on the issues of identity construction in e´lite EU discourse, limited popular trust regarding political institutions, high levels of social polarisation, and modest knowledge of EU-related matters among everyday Estonians. It is argued that the result of the forthcoming EU referendum in Estonia will most likely be a yes-vote, but that the success of further integration into the EU will require policy changes both in the domestic arena and in the relationship between the EU and Estonia.