European Union Leaders Research Articles

The impact of climate change on agricultural productivity in Romania. A country-scale assessment based on the relationship between climatic water balance and maize yields in recent decades

The impact of climate change on agricultural systems has become a reality that currently threatens food security in numerous regions worldwide. However, concrete consequences of climate change on agricultural yields still remain unknown in many countries around the world, including Romania. This study conducts a first-ever analysis of the impact of climate change on maize productivity in Romania, the European Union's leader in maize harvested production, which holds almost 30% of the European maize production. The paper explores complex statistical relationships between the climatic water balance (CWB)/its constituting parameters precipitation (P) and reference evapotranspiration (ETo) and maize yields (Zea mays L.) recorded nationally from 1990 to 2013, a key-period in Romania in terms of climate and socio-political changes. The analysis of various agro-climatic data, based on well-established methods (linear regression and bootstrapping), showed that the countrywide dependence of maize yields variability to changes in the analyzed climatic variables was considerable and reached peak values of roughly 60% for the CWB-yield relationship and around 50% for the P-yield and ETo-yield relationships. At the same time, a significant sensitivity of maize yield dynamics was found in response to a 1-unit climate change, which, on average, was quantified at 5 kg/ha/yr for a 1-mm variation of the CWB, and at 19 kg/ha/yr and 11 kg/ha/yr for a 1-mm change in P and ETo, respectively. In addition to this agricultural impact, our findings regarding the economic impact associated to concrete climatic trends (CWB decreases and ETo increases over the 24 years, consistent with an overall increase of the humidity deficit, and P increases, consistent with humidity surplus) indicate total costs of approximately 53 mil € (or almost 1% of the national agricultural gross domestic product) for the CWB-yield relationship, and of ~200 mil € (~3%) for ETo-yield. It was found that the separate influence of P in maize dynamics was positive, with net financial gains of up to ~130 mil € (~2%). However, our findings show that only the economic costs associated with the impact of ETo on maize productivity are highly statistically reliable. Our results issue a warning about the urgent measures to fight climate change effects on agriculture in Romania, which are necessary especially in the counties located in the Extra-Carpathian regions, highly vulnerable to climate dynamics.

The Securitization of the European Migrant Crisis - Evidence From Bulgaria and Hungary (2015-2017)

Conflicts in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria over the past fifteen years have produced the largest waves of displaced people and refugees since World War II. As European Union (EU) leaders braced for an influx of thousands of people fleeing from these conflicts, they faced pressures to revisit and modify legal rules that left countries in Southeastern Europe and the Mediterranean unable to cope with a crisis of unprecedented proportions in the twenty-first century. While the logistical challenges of this humanitarian disaster threatened to undermine Southeastern and Mediterranean states’ capacity, multiple terrorist attacks across Europe magnified the security concerns of EU leaders. This paper compares how two of the European Union’s newest member states – Bulgaria and Hungary – have tackled the migrant crisis and assesses the impact of security concerns on their refugee policies. Some of the responses of these countries’ governments were similar – both governments mandated the erection or extension of physical barriers to impede migrants’ entry on their countries’ territory. While the Bulgarian government took cues from the rhetoric and actions of key EU leaders such as Angela Merkel, the Hungarian government continuously antagonized EU leaders and declined to cooperate with their proposed multi-lateral strategies of handling the migrant crisis. Decisions taken by the two governments were, to some extent, dictated by security concerns. The rhetoric of the Hungarian government, however, contained stronger nationalist overtones than that of the Bulgarian government. Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his right-wing government led an anti-migrant and anti-refugee campaign that sought to exclude foreign nationals due to the patent incompatibility of their cultural values with those of Hungary’s nationals. On the other hand, the rhetoric of Bulgaria’s Prime Minister – Boiko Borisov – was more dualistic and contradictory. His policy statements to the foreign press or at EU summits reflected the general sentiment of the top EU brass, whereas statements made to the Bulgarian media focused more specifically on security concerns and were far more critical of the foreign nationals attempting to enter Bulgaria’s territory. Moreover, the security-focused rhetoric and actions of the government became more strident immediately before and after the Bulgarian presidential elections of November 2016, which led to the resignation of Borisov’s cabinet. Political parties in Bulgaria, including Borisov’s GERB party have increasingly become critical of refugees living in Bulgaria’s admission centers. Borisov’s government even extradited a group of Afghan asylum seekers due to their involvement in a riot at one of the refugee admission centers. This study is based on a content analysis of statements made by Bulgarian and Hungarian government officials and media coverage in several Bulgarian and Hungarian news publications between 2015 and 2017.

SOCIAL CONVERGENCE IN THE EU-28 COUNTRIES IN THE LIGHT OF THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE EUROPE 2020 STRATEGY. THE DEA APPROACH

Increase in convergence of the European Union countries has been focal for the European Union leaders, from the very beginning. The aim of the study is to examine whether any social convergence occurred in the EU-28 from 2010 to 2016, in the context of the implementation of the recommendations and the social policy objectives formulated under the Europe 2020 strategy. This article is based on an overview of the literature on the subject and the statistics of Eurostat. The methods of assessing the effectiveness of objects is DEA and sigma convergence. It is a new approach to convergence measurement based on the assessment of the efficiency diversification of the European Union countries and it has clearly been the value added to the analyses conducted so far. The obtained results in the scope of the estimation of the effectiveness were then compared to the existing results produced with the use of the methods generally recognized and employed in the literature. Conclusions were presented in the final part of the study.

A Mixed Method Approach on Greek Civil Society Organizations Supporting Migrants During the Refugee Crisis

Between 2015 and the beginning of 2016, Greece became one of the epicenters of the European migrant crisis as it was one of the major entry points by the sea of thousands of refugees entering its territory en route to wealthier countries. The unpreparedness of the Greek state and the European Union leaders to deal with the massive migrant flows significantly contributed to the pivotal role that informal and formal actors, including civil society migrant organizations, played to respond to migrants’ needs. The article using data from the EU-funded TransSOL project and applying a mixed method approach with the rationale of complementarity explores attributes (such as organizational structure, main activities, ultimate aims and means to achieve them, collaborative networks, etc.) as well as unveils the meaning of solidarity initiatives of specific formal and informal migrant organizations operating in the country. The indicative findings provide some preliminary evidence on the distinct features of informal and formal migrant organizations uncovering their diverse roles and tasks in meeting migrants’ needs and rights in Greece. It is recommended that further research on migrant organizations examining their main features and potential challenges in supporting migrants is essential not only for migrants themselves but for the whole society, specifically in times marked by a refugee crisis.

Europe’s Nobel laureates step up warnings about Brexit’s effect on science

Leading scientists and mathematicians urge UK and European Union leaders to strike a deal on research amid stalling negotiations. Leading scientists and mathematicians urge UK and European Union leaders to strike a deal on research amid stalling negotiations.

Международно-правовые предпосылки образования Европейского оборонного союза

INTRODUCTION. At present, the European Union in the security area is represented by a wide list of institutions, bodies and structures. They formed in stages, essentially evolving “from Maastricht to Lisbon”. As the result of the legal evolution the European Union the constitutional documents contain the rules of law that allow to apply the enhanced cooperation in different areas and to approach the necessary flexibility to various integration processes. In addition, as the result of this work, was launched Permanent Structured Security Cooperation format. MATERIALS AND METHODS. The article is based on treaties, declarations of States and doctrinal research on the law of treaties. The author relies on various methods to reach their conclusions, among which treaty interpretation is most frequently used. RESEARCH RESULTS. In November 2017, the Ministers signed a common notification on the Permanent Structured Cooperation and handed it over to the High Representative to the Council. In December of the same year, at the European Union leaders summit the start of the Permanent Structured Cooperation (European Defense Union) format was proclaimed. In March 2018, the Council approved a resolution defining the list of projects that are to be launched in PESCO. This circumstance had a sign effect and now new security mechanism of the EU obviously should be taken into account in Russian and the EU relations strengthening European security area. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS. In the current geopolitical turbulence, the Russian Federation's relations with Western and Western European partners are going through “hard times”, and Russia is perceived more as a “threat” than as a “good neighbor” and partner in the security area. In such case, the legal evolution analysis of the defense and security cooperation mechanism described in this article will be useful for understanding the prospects of the potential new form of cooperation between Russia and the EU in peace strengthening and security in the European region.

Explaining policy change in the EU: financial reform after the crisis

ABSTRACT The European Union (EU) has been hit by financial and economic crises since 2008. To shed light upon the impact of these crises, this article reviews punctuated equilibrium theory (PET) to develop expectations that are tested against two cases of financial regulation and privatization policy. In one, despite the demand for a new model from EU leaders, limited change occurred; in the other, despite legal limitations, significant change emerged. Analysis of the cases reveals a new form of policy venue, and the suggestion that the EU PET literature must consider more systematically and explicitly the role of veto players in shaping policy change.

Stories of Moral Actorship: European Union and Chinese Narratives Towards Africa

European Union (EU) leaders have recently started internal discussions about the framework to shape relations with sub-Saharan African countries in the post-Cotonou period. The process is set against the background of increasing contestation over the African continent, most prominently with China. This article argues that for the EU to properly address this competition, it needs to conceptualize it as unfolding not only on the material but also on the ideational level. Contrary to common belief, China is not an amoral actor in Africa, but rather the source of a complex and historically-rooted alternative view on the global system and development cooperation, a view that might be appealing to disenchanted African audiences. Building upon the conceptual framework of ‘strategic narrative’, this article systematically deconstructs the EU and Chinese narratives towards Africa into their core components at the system, identity, relationship and issue level. Empirically, the article is based upon a qualitative analysis of core policy documents on Africa covering the period 2000–2015. By contributing to a better understanding and contextualization of the divergent views and claims espoused by the two narratives, this article lays the foundation for a broader research agenda aimed at grasping the normative competition faced by the EU in Africa.

EU Military Operation Sophia – Analysing the Shortfalls

Abstract Facing the current issue of migration, European Union leaders managed to scrap together a (widely contested) plan for the re-distribution of asylum seekers between the member states. But they also undertook pro-active measures to counter illegal migration; such is the case of the military Operation Sophia. In this paper we do not disavow in any way the existence and necessity of Operation Sophia. Instead, as a way to hereafter identify new opportunities to enhance its’ efficiency, we analyse the criticism brought against it, which mainly concerns: the lack of full transparency, the fosterage of illegal migration and the fail to address the root causes of the on-going migration crisis.

Can courts rescue national democracy? Judicial safeguards against democratic backsliding in the EU

ABSTRACTThis article explores the potential efficacy and limitations of judicial mechanisms as tools to combat democratic backsliding in European Union (EU) member states. The article argues that more can be done to maximize the effectiveness of existing judicial tools, such as infringement proceedings brought to the European Court of Justice (ECJ) by the Commission and private enforcement litigation in national courts. At the same time, we highlight risks inherent in many proposals for novel judicial tools to defend national democracy. We conclude that despite their importance, judicial safeguards alone – whether existing ones or novel proposals – will not suffice to stop democratic backsliding by a determined national government: if the Union is to rein in such attacks on its core values, heads of government and other EU leaders will have to intervene politically as well.

How voters hold the European People’s Party accountable in European Parliament elections

The established consensus is that voters do not hold European Union leaders accountable for their management of the economy in European Parliament elections, which contributes to the EU’s democratic deficit. However, the existing research misses a comparison between those who feel that the national government is responsible for their economic situation and those who feel the EU is responsible. The analysis is based on surveys of the 28 EU members. I find that when one assigns more responsibility to the EU than the national government for national economic conditions, satisfaction with the economy increases the likelihood of voting for the European People’s Party, the dominant party group in the EU. This study presents the first evidence of individuals’ accountability-holding behaviour towards the EPP.

Enhancing the provision of health and social care in Europe through eHealth.

To report on the outcomes of the European project ENS4Care, which delivered evidence-based guidelines enabling implementation of eHealth services in nursing and social care. Within a policy context of efficiency, safety and quality in health care, this project brought together a diverse group of stakeholders from academia, industry, patient and professional organizations to lead the development of five eHealth guidelines in the areas of prevention, clinical practice, integrated care, advanced roles and nurse ePrescribing. Data were collected through a cross-sectional, online, questionnaire survey of health professionals from 21 countries. Quantitative data were analysed using descriptive and summary statistics, while comments to open questions underwent a process of content analysis. Representing an evidence-based consensus statement, the five guidelines outline key steps and considerations for the deployment of eHealth services at different levels of enablement. Through analysis of the data, and sharing of best practices, common deployment processes and implementation lessons were identified. Findings reveal the richness, diversity and potential that eHealth holds for enabling the delivery of safer, more efficient and patient-centred health care. Nurses and social care workers as the main proprietors of such practices hold the key to a healthier future for citizens across Europe. The preparation, agreement and dissemination of the ENS4Care guidelines will enable European Union leaders to diagnose the organizational changes needed and prescribe the development of new skills and roles in the workforce to meet the challenge of eHealth. Nurses and social care workers, with the right knowledge and skills will add considerable value and form an important link between technological innovation, health promotion and disease prevention.

The impact of EU governance and rural development policy on the development of the third sector in rural Poland: A nation-wide analysis

Governance and rural development programmes such as the European Union's LEADER programme are claimed in the policy literature to mobilise the involvement of the third sector in local development decision-making. Tracing the emergence of the third sector from the collapse of the socialist regime in the late 1980s to the aftermath of Poland's EU LEADER programme, this paper presents nation-wide data relating to the changing profile of the third sector in Poland's rural areas over time. Our analysis suggests that the implementation of the Polish LEADER + Pilot Programme (2004–2006) and the LEADER 4th Axis in Rural Development Programme (2007–2013) resulted in a significant increase in the number of third sector organisations. Using secondary data to examine the factors attributed to this increase, we found that the financial support offered by the LEADER programme incentivised the formal registration of third sector organisations. However, an analysis of primary data found that third sector organisations' dependence on acquiring funding constrained how they identified and achieved their own objectives. Nonetheless, we found that active involvement of the third sector in LAGs had a positive impact on the latter's engagement with local inhabitants in activities such as formulating local development strategies. We conclude that now, over a decade since the initiation of the Polish LEADER programme, the third sector has grown exponentially but its institutional character remains in flux. The presence of the third sector, its resources, and its power in rural governance is patchy. A greater period of time and targeted policy supports are required for the third sector to have a more defined and powerful presence in inter-sectoral partnerships and in rural areas more generally.

Competition and solidarity: union members and immigration in Europe

This article addresses an understudied question in the comparative political economy of migration. How have trade unions shaped the attitudes of their members toward immigration? Unions are at the core of left-wing politics in most European countries, and support for immigration is usually a left-wing position. However, many of the core constituents of unions are those whose interests are most likely to be adversely affected by an increase in the supply of labour. The article shows that the pattern of European trade union leaders becoming supportive of open immigration policies has solidified over the past decade. It then provides evidence that this rhetoric has shaped the attitudes of union members and that the effect has become stronger over time. Finally, it shows that the effect is robust to the exclusion of countries where self-selection into unions on the basis of ideology is likely to be strongest.

Policy learning in the Eurozone crisis: modes, power and functionality.

In response to the attacks on the sovereign debt of some Eurozone countries, European Union (EU) leaders have created a set of preventive and corrective policy instruments to coordinate macro-economic policies and reforms. In this article, we deal with the European Semester, a cycle of information exchange, monitoring and surveillance. Countries that deviate from the targets are subjected to increasing monitoring and more severe ‘corrective’ interventions, in a pyramid of responsive exchanges between governments and EU institutions. This is supposed to generate coordination and convergence towards balanced economies via mechanisms of learning. But who is learning what? Can the EU learn in the ‘wrong’ mode? We contribute to the literature on theories of the policy process by showing how modes of learning can be operationalized and used in empirical analysis. We use policy learning as theoretical framework to establish empirically the prevalent mode of learning and its implications for both the power of the Commission and the normative question of whether the EU is learning in the ‘correct’ mode.

Front and Back Covers, Volume 31, Number 5. October 2015

Front and back cover caption, volume 31 issue 5Front coverShark attack!July 2015 marked the 40th anniversary of Jaws, the blockbuster film directed by Steven Spielberg and based on the novel of the same name by Peter Benchley. At the time, the enormous success of the film was attributed to the way it tapped into the primal instincts of the audience, exposing people to primitive fears usually hidden in their collective unconscious. In later years, Benchley became a committed conservationist and announced that he would never again write a story in which an animal was depicted as ‘a conscious villain’. Benchley was by no means repudiating his earlier work. He claimed he was simply acknowledging that society (in his case, the USA) had moved on, that ideas about animals had progressed, and that portraying animals as villainous creatures was no longer socially acceptable.Writing from South Australia where some of the original footage for Jaws was filmed, Adrian Peace argues that great white sharks continue to be construed by many Australians as rational and ruthless killers (‘assassins’). Peace takes as problematic the idea that sharks occupy a particular place in the Australian psyche, especially when commentators draw on evolutionary psychology to explain the response to great whites in terms of an instinctual and hard wired primal fear. By carefully unpacking the current public discourse surrounding shark attacks in Australian waters, Peace provides a cultural interpretation of the relationship between Australians and great white sharks which is firmly focused on current beliefs and contemporary interpretations.Back coverEUROPE'S REFUGEE CRISISIrish naval personnel from the LÉ Eithne rescuing migrants in the central Mediterranean, June 2015. The Irish vessel took part in Joint Operation Triton, coordinated by the European border agency Frontex and by Italian authorities.Following a series of shipwrecks off the Libyan coast, in late April 2015 European Union (EU) leaders agreed on the need to extend Triton's scope to 138 nautical miles south of Sicily. The EU is expected to finance Operation Triton throughout 2016. Several countries are participating in the operation, with vessels, helicopters, planes, and teams of border agents.Transshipping migrants takes time and is a skilled task that requires specific training. There have been cases of boats in distress capsizing upon sighting a rescue vessel, as passengers suddenly move to one side. Thus, large navy vessels usually dispatch two smaller units, approaching migrant boats from both sides. Everyone is immediately instructed to sit down, and then to don a lifejacket.How do we distinguish between a humanitarian and a border patrolling exercise? In this issue, Maurizio Albahari looks at what is by now the most serious refugee crisis in Europe since World War II.

Law, Fiscal Federalism, and Austerity

In response to the Eurozone crisis, European Union leaders have undertaken a number of dramatic reforms, including the imposition of a new regime for fiscal governance of Eurozone Member States. The 2012 Fiscal Compact Treaty, one of the lynchpins of this package of reforms, requires states to incorporate judicially enforceable balanced-budget rules into national law. This article explores this effort to judicialize austerity in the European Union, focusing on two interrelated sets of questions. First, why did EU leaders turn to the courts and ask them to become the stewards of fiscal discipline, and second, should we expect the effort to judicialize fiscal discipline through the Fiscal Compact to work? I argue that after the failure of the Maastricht Eurozone governance regime, Member State governments concluded that the enforcement of fiscal rules must be shielded from political interference and entrenched at the national level, where national courts could assure that EU rules were respected by reluctant governments. Nevertheless, I conclude that these efforts will fail because they are based on a misunderstanding of when and how fiscal rules are actually enforced. The vague character of the balanced budget rules adopted in the Fiscal Compact Treaty along with other background conditions in the structure of the Eurozone mean that the rules are unlikely to be enforced.

European Agency Leader Urges Long‐Term Environmental Policy

A 23 October agreement by European Union (EU) leaders to reduce domestic greenhouse gas emissions is a good example of developing and implementing a needed long‐term, sustainable environmental policy agenda for Europe. So says Hans Bruyninckx, executive director of the European Environment Agency (EEA), an EU agency.

Zeroing In: Lessons from the European Climate Foundation's Roadmap 2050 Project

When European Union (EU) leaders committed, in October 2009, to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by at least 80%, they essentially set up a long-term vision of the European economy?s moving toward a low-carbon society and a zero-carbon power sector by 2050. It remained unclear, however, whether that was at all possible from a technical and economic point of view, and if so, how the transition could be managed in a secure and cost-effective way.

The role of personality in politics: Ashton, Barroso and Van Rompuy, Trinity at EU?

Abstract This article is the first scientific study into the political personalities of European Union leaders. It investigates the personalities of the permanent president of the European Council Herman Van Rompuy, the European High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Catherine Ashton, and the president of the Commission Jose Barroso. The aim is to determine whether there is any psychological reason to suspect a possible power struggle between the personalities of Van Rompuy, Ashton and Barroso. The power division between the new leaders of EU, has indeed, as a consequence of the Treaty of Lisbon in the European Union, given rise to speculations about a possible struggle for power. This is in particular due to the complex judicial relations between the three positions, and the still unclear competences of all positions in the foreign relations area of EU. This article will approach this discussion from a different angle than the judicial debate. In order to be able to portray the profile of the current giants of European Foreign policy, the article will build upon the theories of two main disciplines: psychological profiling and European governance. A psychological profile of all actors will be completed on the basis of the method of political profiling by Aubrey Immelman (e.g. 2004). Before that, the article explains the judicial question marks that surround the top positions in the EU at the moment, and the Immelman profiling method itself. It concludes with a discussion on the consequences of the results in the light of the judicial issues. Keywords: political profiling – European Union – personality ----- Bibliography: Middelhoff, Jurriaan/De Landtsheer, Christ'l: The role of personality in politics: Ashton, Barroso and Van Rompuy, Trinity at EU?, PCS, 2-2013, pp. 260-273. https://doi.org/10.3224/pcs.v4i2.19808