European Trade Research Articles

Price Dynamics and Interactions between the Chinese and European Carbon Emission Trading Markets

The European carbon emission trading market is the largest and most mature market, while China’s carbon market has a short history. Institutionally, cross-market transaction is infeasible between the two markets. This paper investigates the long-run trend between the two markets as well as the price dynamics. Results show that a long-run trend exists between the Chinese and European carbon markets. Both markets possess self-correction capability in reducing price deviations, signaling a certain level of market efficiency. However, both markets also exhibit pricing inefficiency as historical price movements are able to impact prices. The European market informationally leads the Chinese market. Policy implications are that China should further upgrade its information disclosure system, such as unifying information disclosure standards across industries, and further develop its carbon derivatives markets to improve market transparency and market competition.

On How the Human Rights Framework Can Contribute to Inclusive Trade Agreements

There is a growing willingness to include inclusivity and sustainability provisions in trade agreements. This has gone hand-in-hand with a new trend in trade policy circles to acknowledge the differential impacts of trade. These developments offer an unprecedented opportunity to deepen reflection about ways of anticipating what possible impacts of new trade agreements might be, how to avoid adverse impacts, and how to design flanking and mitigating measures. This article considers the pertinence of a human rights-based approach for identifying economic, social and environmental impacts. Noting that discussion about human rights in the trade context has been hampered by misunderstandings, the article clarifies the legal basis for undertaking human rights impact assessment (HRIA) and what a human rights approach can achieve. It demonstrates that the function of HRIA goes beyond determining impacts of trade rules on human rights, to be a tool for ascertaining whether trade is fulfilling its intended societal functions. The article draws on a recent ex ante assessment of the European Free Trade Area (EFTA)-Mercosur trade agreement (EMFTA) to illustrate how HRIA methodology can be applied. Referring to this and other HRIAs, it concludes that human rights-based methodologies are well-suited to assess potential impacts of planned trade agreements, and that such assessment is a promising route towards trade agreements that are inclusive, robust, and supportive of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). International trade, trade negotiations, Mercosur, EFTA, inclusive trade, human rights, impact assessment, sustainability impact assessment

How would the European Union fare without Russian energy?

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has forced a rapid and profound rethink of the European Union's energy supply as the Europe-Russia energy decoupling has sharply accelerated. This contribution explores how Europe can manage without the imports of Russian coal, crude oil, oil products, and natural gas. We quantify the supply-side gap that will arise and discuss alternative sources of supply, as well as exploring the internal and global bottlenecks that will arise with any attempt to replace Russian molecules. This exercise illustrates that demand-side measures will be necessary to reduce energy consumption, most notably of natural gas. We offer a perspective of the deeper energy integration that EU leaders must strive for to ensure that the bloc is ready for life without Russian energy. We argue that by following four key principles, the bloc will manage without Russian energy: i) bringing forward all available short run domestic supply capacities, ii) all countries making honest and ambitious efforts to reduce demand, iii) enshrining cross-border flows and the functioning of European energy trade, iv) protecting the most vulnerable consumers.

CROATIA AND ELECTRICITY TRADING IN CENTRAL EUROPE

This article will discuss electricity trading in Central Europe, with particular emphasis on Croatia. Croatia is a terminal and also a transit hub: a unique combination on the Central European electricity market. It will be explained how cross-border capacity auctions influence prices on the Central European electricity market, followed by a discussion about the most important factors that are significant for Croatia’s electricity trading strategy. Finally, the article will describe the current HEP electricity tendering process and make some recommendations for possible improvements in the future.

The Collapse of Mercantilism: Anglo-Hispanic Trans-Pacific Ventures in Asia at the End of the Spanish Empire (1815–30)

Early modern connections between the Pacific shores of the Spanish Empire have been assessed in previous studies and yet, studies on the subsequent developments during the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries are scant. This particularly applies to the consequences of the commercial developments at the end of the Manila Galleon and the collapse of the Spanish Empire in America. Through the analysis of the professional networks of Francisco Xavier de Ezpeleta, and Juan Nepomuceno Machado, which stretched from Asia to Mexico at the time, this paper proposes some preliminary conclusions about trans-Pacific links. It focuses on the study of networks and connections, and builds upon archival sources — mostly from the Jardine Matheson Archive, in Cambridge. In the transition from the eighteenth to the nineteenth centuries, actors who made up Hispanic trading networks in what remained of the crumbling Spanish Empire, reorganised to benefit from opportunities as mercantilist limitations came to an end. In so doing, by the 1820s, Hispanic traders allied with the forebears of the British firm of Jardine, Matheson & Co., and controlled the resulting networks. This paper points to Hispanic trans-Pacific connections during the development of European private trade between East Asia and the Mexican Pacific. Ties between British and Hispanic merchants are key for the analysis of the opium trade and Western imperialism in East Asia, and the development of British commercial hegemony in Latin America in the nineteenth century.

Multi-step carbon price forecasting based on a new quadratic decomposition ensemble learning approach

Numerous studies show that it is reasonable and effective to apply decomposition technology to deal with the complex carbon price series. However, the existing research ignores the residual term containing complex information after applying single decomposition technique. Considering the demand for higher accuracy of the carbon price series prediction and following the existing research path, this paper proposes a new hybrid prediction model VMD-CEEMDAN-LSSVM-LSTM, which combines a new quadratic decomposition technique with the optimized long short term memory (LSTM). In the decomposition part of the hybrid model, the original carbon price series is processed by variational mode decomposition (VMD), and then the residual term obtained by decomposition is further decomposed by complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN). In the prediction part of the hybrid model, least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) is introduced, and LSSVM-LSTM model is constructed to predict the components obtained by decomposition. The empirical research of this paper selects two different case data from the European Union emissions trading system (EU ETS) as samples. Taking the results of Case Ⅰ in the 1-step ahead forecasting scenario as an example, the prediction evaluation indexes eMAPE, eRMSE and R2 of the VMD-CEEMDAN-LSSVM-LSTM hybrid model constructed in this paper are 0.3087, 0.0921 and 0.9987 respectively, which are significantly better than other benchmark models. The empirical results confirm the superiority and robustness of the hybrid model proposed in this paper for carbon price forecasting.

The Provincial Chinese and the Progress of Iloilo Textile in Nineteenth-Century Philippines

Abstract This paper examines the role of provincial Chinese in the progress of Iloilo textile in nineteenth century Philippines. It argues that the provincial Chinese played a pivotal role in Iloilo’s urban morphogenesis, which is contrary to the prevailing view that Iloilo’s progress has been spurred only by Western global enterprise, especially with the emergence of the sugar trade primarily operated by the British. The facets of Iloilo’s pre-colonial and colonial trade, specifically the textile business run by the Chinese, served as tour de force that brought about internal transformations in the local economy prior to European trade expansions in the overseas colonies in the second half of the nineteenth century. This study falls under the domain of urban history but with special emphasis on the interplay of material culture with that of the political economy of port cities in Asia during the nineteenth century. Its research framework has been drawn from advocates of microhistory. The framework employs privileging first-hand accounts and primary sources to explore historical experiences of a particular sector of the society (provincial Chinese), tracking clues through multiple sources to unearth hidden connections (provincial Chinese and urban progress), reconstructing webs of social networks (provincial Chinese with Ilonggos, Spaniards and other Europeans), and scaling analysis to highlight specific historical contexts or perspectives provincial Chinese and the textile trade). Many of the information in the study has been gathered through extensive library and archival research, especially nineteenth century records and documents of Iloilo Chinese found in the National Archives of the Philippines (nap) and other libraries and archives in the country. Data analysis has been undertaken through clustered themes and sub-themes that revolved around textile trade and the participation of provincial Chinese on it.

“Scandinavian Transit” in Russian-English Relations (1914—1918)

This article is dedicated to one of the insufficiently studied issues of the First World War as a role of the Allied transit trade through Scandinavia. It deals with the organization of the Based on the materials of the archives — the Archive of the Foreign Policy of the Russian Empire (AVPRI), the Russian State Archive of the Navy (RGA VMF), as well as the Russian State Historical Archive (RGIA), the article examines such issues as the organization of transit supplies through neutral Sweden, the activities of the Russian-English joint stock company “Transito”, identifies factors that hindered the development of Allied transit trade in Northern Europe. The author comes to the conclusion that neutral Sweden received the greatest dividends from the transit trade of the Entente countries through Scandinavia, while for Russia the supplies of allied goods through Sweden did not justify themselves, as well as the Russian government’s orientation on foreign military orders did not justify itself in general.

Over-allocation in the European Emission Trading System

Over-allocation in the European Emission Trading System

Agent-based Simulation of the Pharmaceutical Parallel Trade Market: A Case Study

The pharmaceutical parallel trade market emerged as a consequence of the European single market for pharmaceuticals, involving multiple players that partake in different types of competitions. These competitions not only affect players’ profit, but also have a significant impact on European people's healthcare access and welfare. Hence, modeling the pharmaceutical parallel trade market provides a way to study the market and to offer valuable decision support to authorities, people, and players involved in the market. Agent-based modeling offers a computational methodology to study macro-level outcomes emerging from individual behaviors while offering to relax conventional assumptions of standard mathematical economic models. Here, we demonstrate a use case of an agent-based model of the European pharmaceutical parallel trade market and investigate its abilities by analyzing various market scenarios.

Eastern Persia as an Arena of Rivalry and Possible Cooperation between Russia and the United Kingdom in the Late 19th – early 20th Centuries

In the 19th century after the end of the Napoleonic wars, the contradictions between Russia and the United Kingdom gradually increased both in Europe and in Asia. In Asia, the possessions of both empires gradually approached each other. This happened as the territory of British India grew in the direction of the North-West and the territorial formations in Central Asia joined the Russian Empire. It was about a possible large-scale clash between the two powers, the main theater of which was supposed to be Afghanistan. However, according to the existing plans, the eastern part of Persia (Iran) could become the scene of hostilities, and both sides tried to strengthen their positions in this area. In this regard, Russian military and diplomatic representatives in Khorasan (the northeastern province of Persia) and Central Asia reported on the extraordinary activity of the British in this part of the country, directed against Russian interests. The government was asked to take measures to counter the British expansion, but these calls did not receive support from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Empire. At the same time, Russia had plans to build a railway line to Persian ports in the Persian and Oman Gulfs. Several routes were worked out along which the road could be laid. This would make it possible to take control of a significant part of the trade between Europe and India. The construction of such a route would undermine the monopoly of Great Britain, which owned the Suez Canal, to control the trade of Europe and India, and depreciate the German plan to create a Berlin-Istanbul-Baghdad railway.

Modeling pre-industrial urban ecosystems, to aim sustainability

The goal of the research is the creation of sustainable models, to be compared with contemporary municipalities, aiming sustainability. The method of indicator comparisons is promoted by the European Environmental Agency and the European Committee, although that known “sustainable” indicators refer to data from cities that are not sustainable. Identifying the insufficient way to sustainability, the research investigates the function and flows, of 28 autonomous, self-sufficient settlements in Epirus, before the industrialization, based on their cyclical ecosystem behavior, in four fields: political, economic, environmental, and social. The settlements as ecosystems are applied in the DPSIR framework of EEA, giving the perfect function, which concerned political autonomy, self-preservation, a high quality of life and education level, as out-flows culture, legacies, and pan European trade. Therefore, sustainability and cyclical urban ecosystem are indeed identical terms, concerning social, economic, and environmental excellence. The fields are highly interdependent. The basis, or the “Driving force”, for the ecosystemic function to sustainability is an independent-strong local authority, empowered by local economy of the primary sector. These condition in a “green” built environment, is able to achieve strong social cohesion. The ecosystemic-function of the preindustrial models as benchmarks can lead the way to a contemporary sustainability excellence.

LOS SINDICATOS Y LA PROTECCIÓN DE LOS TRABAJADORES INMIGRANTES EN EUROPA: BARRERAS, ENFOQUES E INTERVENCIONES

Migrant workers in Europe, particularly those from third countries, often encounter challenging working conditions that could significantly benefit from the support and protection provided by trade unions. This study explores the substantial obstacles that migrant workers must overcome to unionise, emphasising the structural disadvantages they face in the process. It also examines the attitudes of European trade unions towards migrant workers, revealing a growing pro-immigration trend despite certain setbacks. The study concludes by shedding light on intriguing strategies and initiatives used by trade unions to support migrant workers. The effort to integrate migrant workers into trade unions is worthwhile, despite the many difficulties involved. Unionisation stands as one of the most effective means of improving the working and living conditions of migrant workers

Dostojanstven rad na lokalnim digitalnim platformama u Srbiji

In this study, we examine the concept of decent work on local digital platforms in Serbia. So, this article focuses on the research topic of whether labour done on local digital platforms may be classified as "decent work." Labour digitization and the digital economy are novel phenomena that need in-depth examination. We begin with the concept of the digital economy as a basis for the development and expansion of digital labour. This new economy is characterised by knowledge and the use of various smart tools, as well as the crossing of national borders, and so on. Nowadays, we may talk about the gig economy, which is defined by short-term employment on online platforms or labour via mobile applications. These developments resulted in the establishment and growth of a worldwide digital labour market marked by non-standard forms of employment, insecure labour agreements, and the involvement of thirdparty intermediaries between employees and clients. There are considerable efforts to alter employment legislation throughout Europe. Co-regulation, which involves several players in the decision-making process, is one possible option. The Directive on Improving Working Conditions in Platform Work, which is now in the process of adoption, is perhaps the most important document at the EU level. It is worth mentioning the practices of the European Union's Court of Justice, national courts in Spain, the Netherlands, Italy, and Germany, as well as national regulations in both Italy and France that establish the right to disconnect. We must also acknowledge the work of international and national trade union federations, such as the European Trade Union Confederation. So, the most pressing issue in this study is finding decent work in the digital labour market. A decent work index comprises many indicators. With statistical and legal indicators, the International Labour Organisation discusses 10 core aspects of decent work. According to an early study, there is no decent work on digital platforms due to bogus self-employment, which occurs when certain entrepreneurs work for only one company. The reasons for this phenomenon are reduced expenses and employers' lack of accountability. This is also an aspect of digital labour in Serbia. To assess the gig economy in Serbia, we use the online labour index and the gigmeter. According to the online labour index, Serbia is among the top 15 nations in the world in terms of the number of digital employees, accounting for 1.4% of the global total. Software development is the most frequent occupation. According to the gigmeter, the most frequent employment is creative and multimedia. The most crucial duty is to figure out how many digital employees there are in Serbia. According to the most conservative estimate, Serbia has almost 90,000 digital employees. Almost two-thirds of digital employees in Serbia are in hidden employment. Now we can talk about doing decent work on digital platforms in Serbia. To assess decent work, we apply the Fair Work Principles. Fair pay, fair conditions, fair contracts, fair management, and fair representation re among these principles. Every platform can be scored with a basic and an extra point, for a total of 10 points. The study incorporates five platforms: Uradizaradi, Glovo, Wolt, Car: Go, and Mr.D. According to the Fairwork rating, Uradi-zaradi and Wolt met the most requirements but received just a passing grade. The Public Policy Centre performed extensive research on decent work to find that it does not exist on digital platforms. The most essential motivation for digital labour is a high wage, which comes at the price of a long working week. This study determined that neither platform satisfies the passing standard and makes some recommendations for improving working conditions on local platforms. First, the practice of bogus self-employment must be stopped. Second, labour legislation must be revised. Third, the right to collective bargaining must be extended to digital workers. This can be done by a strong trade union movement that can find a way to safeguard digital employees without jeopardising traditional workers' rights.

Інвестиційні аспекти реалізації Плану Маршалла

The Marshall Plan, or the Recovery Program for Europe, was a successful and ambitious project of the United States of America to help Europe affected by World War II, which, thanks to US assistance, was able to restore and surpass the pre-war level of prosperity. The article is aimed at analyzing the investment aspects of implementation of the Marshall Plan. The article reveals the features of the Marshall Plan (history, goals, coordination, and differences from other assistance programs) and considers the investment aspects of its implementation in the annual context. Attention is mainly focused on production, agriculture and their dynamism and efficiency, as well as labor productivity. The attempt of the OEEC to study the possibilities of coordinating investments in Europe is analyzed. The role of auxiliary partner funds in local currency in the development of investment projects is disclosed. Some features of European trade and the European Payment Union are considered. The influence of the force majeure factor – the war in Korea – on reorientation of the Marshall Plan’s objectives from economic recovery to defense is disclosed. The deliberate, rational and large-scale investments helped Europe devastated by World War II to restore its prosperity and achieve prosperity. Thanks to investments, it was possible to significantly increase European production. However, the investments were used as efficiently as possible only in combination with other factors, such as: an established entrepreneurial culture, stable legislation and protection of investors’ rights, productivity growth and the use of advanced technologies in production. Studying the experience of implementing the Marshall Plan is useful given that Ukraine has also suffered significant damage as a result of russia’s military actions and will require huge efforts to restore the economy together with large-scale investments.

The Missing Link? Western Communists as Mediators Between the East German FDGB, the World Federation of Trade Unions (WFTU), and African Trade Unions in the Late 1950s and Early 1960s

AbstractIn the interstices of Cold War rivalries and anti-colonial agitation in late 1950s Africa, African workers came into the focus of African nationalist politicians, Western leftists, colonial regimes and state socialist states alike. They were a small, but influential group, increasingly organized in trade unions and capable of bringing whole economies to a halt. European communists on both sides of the Iron Curtain saw these workers not only as part of an inceptive working class but also debated their role as a potential key force in global anti-capitalist revolution – if they had the right concepts. But how could trade union representatives, particularly those ones from Eastern Europe, actually get in touch with their African counterparts? Based on archival materials of the East German Freier Deutscher Gewerkschaftsbund (FDGB), this article discusses East-West-South connections in labor education with a special emphasis on the role of Western trade union officials working for or affiliated to the communist-dominated World Federation of Trade Unions (WFTU). Drawing on their international experience, personal networks and linguistic skills, French and British communists established and intensified links between African trade unions and WFTU affiliates like the FDGB in the 1950s and early 1960s. Their influence facilitated and shaped these East-South connections. First, through their networks in West Africa, Western communists enabled the WFTU and the FDGB to internationalize their concepts of trade union education and integrate it into African political structures. Secondly, we examine the African Workers’ University in Conakry, an East-West-South joint venture between the West African Union Générale des Travailleurs d'Afrique Noire (UGTAN) and the WFTU, where trade unionists from the entire African continent attended courses between 1960 and 1965 and where European communists broadened their horizons while often holding on to rigid views. Thirdly, the article examines how European trade union functionaries talked about African course participants behind closed doors—building on the transcripts from a 1963 WFTU gathering on education for African trade unionists. Emphasizing their insider knowledge, French communists with experience in African trade union education called for innovative pedagogical concepts including a more practice-related education which acknowledged the heterogeneous conditions in different countries. However, they also promoted Eurocentric stage theories and saw a need to “discipline” Africans. The article concludes that the cooperation between actors from East, West and South rested on some shared assumptions, but encounters also led to reconceptualizations and realizations of ideological and practical constraints in international labor education.

Impact of external cost internalization on short sea shipping – The case of the Portugal-Northern Europe trade

Impact of external cost internalization on short sea shipping – The case of the Portugal-Northern Europe trade

TRADE AND HOTEL AND TOURISM INDUSTRY OF THE CZECH REPUBLIC IN THE CONTEXT OF EUROPEAN INTEGRATION: OPPORTUNITIES FOR UKRAINIAN-CZECH COOPERATION (2000–2019)

The purpose of the article is to comprehensively analyze the Czech experience of reforming society in the trade and hotel-tourism complex in the context ofEuropean integration during the fi rst two decades of the 21st century (2000–2019). The study reveals the characteristic features of the process of adaptation of Czech society to European standards, the study of the peculiarities of Czech economic reforms and their possible use for Ukraine. Research methodology. The authors of the study used a variety of scientifi c methods that allow for the analysis and generalization of information, as well as to expand knowledge about the interaction between Ukraine and the Czech Republic in the spheres of European integration, trade and tourism. To solve scientifi c problems, the authors of the publication applied general scientifi c methods of cognition: analysis, synthesis, systematicity, /generalization, concreteness, historicism, and the dialectical method. In historical research, the dialectical method is most fully implemented through the principles of historicism, therefore, during the research, the authors preferred historical methods: historicaldescriptive method (historical-genetic, historical-comparative, historical-synthetic), historical-diachronic, empirical analysis method, etc. Scientifi c novelty. The main scientifi c novelty is the analysis of the impact of European integration on the development of trade relations and the hotel and tourism industry of the Czech Republic, as well as the study of the possibilities of cooperation with Ukraine in these areas. In addition, the mentioned topic is relevant in the modern context, where international trade, hotel and restaurant business andtourism are becoming increasingly important elements of economic development. The study of the Ukrainian-Czech perspective in the context of European integration opens up new opportunities for cooperation and development of both countries, as well as complements scientifi c research in the fi eld of international relations, economics and tourism. Conclusions. In the process of European integration, the Czech Republic actively developed its trade andhotel and tourism industries, using various mechanisms of cooperation with the countries of the European Union. This included the implementation of joint projects and programs aimed at developing tourism, improving infrastructure and increasing trade turnover. The Czech Republic has successfully attracted international funds, such as European Union programs, for joint projects with Ukrainian partners, which has contributed to increased investment andmodernization of tourism infrastructure. In addition, cooperation with other EU countries in these areas contributed to increasing the competitiveness of the Czech Republic on the European market.

The EU Regulation on the Import of Cultural Goods: A Paradigm Shift in EU Cultural Property Legislation?

The EU has recently decided to regulate the import of cultural goods in the EU. While the new provisions have been widely criticised for various reasons, primarily for having a freezing effect on the European art trade, it cannot be overlooked that the regulation of the import of works of art is not unprecedented, either in international, regional and national legal instruments or at the level of EU legislation. The new legislation can be considered a paradigm shift. It completes the pre-existing EU legal sources that primarily aimed to protect cultural goods originating from the EU and provides equal and symmetric protection for cultural goods arriving from third countries. In this way, the EU regulation transcends a self-centred regional approach and embodies a global vision of the protection of cultural heritage. Keywords: cultural goods, art trade, import, licence, policy change. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3935/cyelp.18.2022.472 This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution − Non-Commercial − No Derivatives 4.0 International License. Suggested citation: T Szabados, ‘The EU Regulation on the Import of Cultural Goods: A Paradigm Shift in EU Cultural Property Legislation?’ (2022) 18 CYELP 1.

Trade policy and foreign trade of the European Union

Economic globalization is characterized by an increase in international trade and growing interdependence of economies at the global level. The EU's trade policy is a central tool for responding to the challenges associated with globalization and other modern challenges, such as the consequences of the pandemic and the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, and turning its potential into real benefits. In other words, the trade policy of the European Union is a significant lever in shaping the competitiveness of the EU in the world market and is based on a wide range of various measures, which determines the relevance of this study. The subject of the study is the peculiarities and prospects of the development of trade policy and foreign trade of the European Union. In turn, the goal is to analyze the specifics of trade policy implementation and the current state of the European Union's foreign trade. It was found that bilateral international agreements play a decisive role among EU policies. But there are also unilateral policy measures that also have a huge impact on the state and performance of foreign trade. Among them are tariff and non-tariff regulation methods. It has been found that despite the fact that the EU's share of world trade has been falling in recent years, it remains at a high level and is a key basis for growth, competitiveness and employment in the EU. At the same time, the EU's export and import dynamics have a tendency to grow, which indicates that despite the decline in the EU's share in world trade, the EU's position as one of the world's trade leaders will strengthen, but competition will grow. To achieve the set goal and solve research tasks, modern methods of scientific research were used in the performance of scientific work, in particular, general scientific and special methods of analysis of economic phenomena and processes: systematic approach, comparative analysis, historical-logical method, comparative analysis, economic-mathematical modeling, and namely: trend analysis. Therefore, the growing indicators of the EU's foreign trade prove that the EU's trade policy is successful.