European Society Of Cardiology Model Research Articles

Lower early mortality after acute pulmonary embolism in patients with WHO-defined obesity: results from a post-hoc cohort analysis with external validation

Abstract Background The relationship between obesity, defined as a Body Mass Index (BMI) ≥ 30 kg/m2, and mortality in venous thrombo-embolism remains controversial. Objectives To compare early outcomes after pulmonary embolism (PE) between obese patients, and non-obese, non-underweight patients. Methods We performed a post-hoc analysis based on prospectively recorded individual patient data from the multicenter BFC-FRANCE registry. We compared rates of outcomes using multivariable logistic regression or a Cox model for 30-day and 6-month outcomes respectively. We assessed the incremental value of adding BMI information on top of the 30-day European Society of Cardiology (ESC) prognostic algorithm. Results A total of 2,390 patients with a BMI ≥ 18.5 kg/m2 (mean age, 66.9±16.8 years; 1,188 men [49.7%]) were included, 686 patients [28.7%] in the obese group, and 1,704 patients [71.3%] in the non-obese group. Mortality rates were significantly lower in obese patients versus non-obese patients at 30 days (OR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.35-0.98), and 6 months. Cox-model-derived adjusted curves for all-cause death at 6 months, with hazard ratios (HRs) between obese and non-obese patients, after acute PE, are shown in the Figure. Rates of secondary non-fatal outcomes (including recurrent VTE) did not differ between groups. The addition of the obesity information on top of the ESC prognostic model improved global model fit, and discriminatory and calibration capacities, yielding significant reclassification based on the observed mortality rates with the ESC model as reference. Findings were confirmed in an external validation using 35,796 PE patients from the RIETE registry. Conclusion We present evidence indicating lower early and mid-term mortality after PE in patients classified as obese based on BMI, compared with non-obese, non-underweight patients. BMI should likely be incorporated into algorithms or scoring systems for predicting early mortality following PE.

Validation of the European Society of Cardiology pretest probability models for obstructive coronary artery disease in high-risk population

ObjectiveThe pre-test probability (PTP) model for obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) was updated in 2019 by the European Society of Cardiology (ESC). To our knowledge, this model was never externally validated in a population with a high incidence of CAD. The aim of this study is to validate the new PTP ESC model in our population, which has a high CAD incidence, and to compare it with the previous PTP ESC model from 2013. MethodsWe retrospectively analysed 1294 symptomatic patients with suspected CAD referred to our centre between 2015 and 2019. In all patients, the PTP score was calculated based on age, gender, and symptoms according to the ESC model from 2013 (2013-ESC-PTP) and 2019 (2019-ESC-PTP). All patients underwent invasive coronary angiography (ICA). ResultsOf the 1294 patients, obstructive CAD was diagnosed in 533 patients (41.2%). The 2019-ESC-PTP model categorised significantly more patients into the low probability group (PTP < 15%) than the 2013-ESC-PTP model (39.8% vs. 5.6%, p < 0.001). Obstructive CAD prevalence was underestimated using 2019-ESC-PTP at all PTP levels (calibration intercept 1.15, calibration slope 0.96). The 2013-ESC-PTP overestimated obstructive CAD prevalence (calibration intercept −0.24, calibration slope 0.73). The discrimination measured with an area under the curve was similar for both models, indicating moderate accuracy of the models. ConclusionIn high-risk Serbian population, both the 2013 and 2019 ESC-PTP models had moderate accuracy in diagnosing CAD, with the 2019-ESC-PTP underestimating the prevalence of CAD and the 2013-ESC-PTP overestimating it. Further studies are warranted to establish PTP models for high-risk countries.

Assessment of late gadolinium enhancement in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy improves risk stratification based on current guidelines.

Identifying patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) who are candidates for implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) implantation in primary prevention for sudden cardiac death (SCD) is crucial. The aim of this study was to externally validate the 2022 European Society of Cardiology (ESC) model and other guideline-based ICD class of recommendation (ICD-COR) models and explore the utility of late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) in further risk stratification. Seven hundred and seventy-four consecutive patients who underwent cardiac magnetic resonance imaging were retrospectively enrolled. Forty-six (5.9%) patients reached the SCD-related endpoint during 7.4 ± 2.5 years of follow-up. Patients suffering from SCD had higher ESC Risk-SCD score (4.3 ± 2.4% vs. 2.8 ± 2.1%, P < .001) and LGE extent (13.7 ± 9.4% vs. 4.9 ± 6.6%, P < .001). Compared with the 2014 ESC model, the 2022 ESC model showed increased area under the curve (.76 vs. .63), sensitivity (76.1% vs. 43.5%), positive predictive value (16.8% vs. 13.6%), and negative predictive value (98.1% vs. 95.9%). The C-statistics for SCD prediction of 2011 American College of Cardiology (ACC)/American Heart Association (AHA), 2014 ESC, 2020 AHA/ACC, and 2022 ESC models were .68, .64, .76 and .78, respectively. Furthermore, in patients without extensive LGE, LGE ≥5% was responsible for seven-fold SCD risk after multivariable adjustment. Whether in ICD-COR II or ICD-COR III, patients with LGE ≥5% and <15% showed significantly worse prognosis than those with LGE <5% (all P < .001). The 2022 ESC model performed better than the 2014 ESC model with especially improved sensitivity. LGE enabled further risk stratification based on current guidelines.

Association of Blood Leukocytes and Hemoglobin with Hospital Mortality in Acute Pulmonary Embolism.

This study aimed to assess the prognostic significance of total leukocyte count (TLC) and hemoglobin (Hb) levels upon admission for patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE), considering the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) model for mortality risk. 1622 patients from a regional PE registry were included. Decision tree statistics were employed to evaluate the prognostic value of TLC and Hb, both independently and in conjunction with the ESC model. The results indicated all-cause and PE-related in-hospital mortality rates of 10.7% and 6.5%, respectively. Subgrouping patients based on TLC cut-off values (≤11.2, 11.2-16.84, >16.84 × 109/L) revealed increasing all-cause mortality risks (7.0%, 11.8%, 30.2%). Incorporating Hb levels (≤126 g/L or above) further stratified the lowest risk group into two strata with all-cause mortality rates of 10.1% and 4.7%. Similar trends were observed for PE-related mortality. Notably, TLC improved risk assessment for intermediate-high-risk patients within the ESC model, while Hb levels enhanced mortality risk stratification for lower-risk PE patients in the ESC model for all-cause mortality. In conclusion, TLC and Hb levels upon admission can refine the ESC model's mortality risk classification for patients with acute PE, providing valuable insights for improved patient management.

Combined Effect of Homocysteine and Uric Acid to Identify Patients With High Risk for Subclinical Atrial Fibrillation

BackgroundSubclinical atrial fibrillation (SCAF) is often asymptomatic nonetheless harmful. In patients with cardiac implantable electronic devices, we evaluated the combined performance of homocysteine and uric acid (UA) biomarkers to discriminate high‐risk patients for SCAF.Methods and ResultsWe enrolled 1224 consecutive patients for evaluation of SCAF in patients with cardiac implantable electronic devices in Dalian, China, between January 2013 and December 2019. Clinical data and blood samples were obtained from patients selected according to the absence or presence of atrial high‐rate episodes >6 minutes. Blood samples were obtained, and homocysteine and UA biomarkers were tested in all patients to distinguish their prognostic performance for SCAF. Homocysteine and UA biomarkers were significantly different in SCAF versus no SCAF. On multivariable Cox regression analysis with potential confounders, elevated homocysteine and UA biomarkers were significantly associated with an increased risk of SCAF. A rise of 1 SD in homocysteine (5.7 μmol/L) was associated with an increased risk of SCAF in men and women regardless of their UA levels. Similarly, a 1‐SD increase in UA (91 μmol/L) was associated with an increased risk of SCAF among the patients with high levels of homocysteine in men (hazard ratio, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.43–2.30) and women (hazard ratio, 2.11; 95% CI, 1.69–2.62). The addition of homocysteine and UA to the atrial fibrillation risk factors recommended by the 2020 European Society of Cardiology Guidelines significantly improved risk discrimination for SCAF.ConclusionsHomocysteine and UA biomarkers were strongly associated with SCAF. The prediction performance of the European Society of Cardiology model for SCAF was increased by the addition of the selected biomarkers.RegistrationURL: https://www.chictr.org.cn; Unique identifier: Chi‐CTR200003837.

Comparison of guidelines for diagnosing suspected stable angina and the additional value of the calcium score

BackgroundThe performance of current diagnostic algorithms of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA), National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) and European Society of Cardiology (ESC) in patients with stable chest pain and coronary artery calcium (CAC) remains a matter of debate. We compared their merits in patients with CAC and investigated the additional value of the CAC score to improve diagnostic accuracy and risk stratification.Methods and resultsPatient data were obtained from a prospective registry of 642 consecutive patients. Mean age 63 (SD 11) years, 50% male. According to the guidelines, low and intermediate/high pre-test probability groups were constructed. Patients were reclassified based on their CAC score. Obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) was observed in 14%. All models performed modestly in accurately predicting CAD (c-statistic <0.65). After addition of the CAC score, the c-statistic of the NICE model increased to 0.75 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.73–0.78) which was just non-significant compared to the ESC model (0.71 95% CI 0.67–0.74) and performed significantly better than ACC/AHA (0.68 (95% CI 0.64–0.72)). After reclassification more than 50% of patients were classified low risk in NICE and ESC, while the prevalence of obstructive CAD (4.8% and 5.2% respectively) did not increase.ConclusionsAddition of the CAC score to the studied models improved the ability to safely rule-out obstructive CAD and identified other patients at high risk for future coronary artery events. These results suggest that incorporating CAC score will lead to substantially less downstream testing and lower costs.

Renal dysfunction improves risk stratification and may call for a change in the management of intermediate- and high-risk acute pulmonary embolism: results from a multicenter cohort study with external validation

BackgroundRenal dysfunction influences outcomes after pulmonary embolism (PE). We aimed to determine the incremental value of adding renal dysfunction, defined by estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), on top of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) prognostic model, for the prediction of 30-day mortality in acute PE patients, which in turn could lead to the optimization of acute PE management.MethodsWe performed a multicenter, non-interventional retrospective post hoc analysis based on a prospectively collected cohort including consecutive confirmed acute PE stratified per ESC guidelines. We first identified which of three eGFR formulae most accurately predicted death. Changes in global model fit, discrimination, calibration and reclassification parameters were evaluated with the addition of eGFR to the prognostic model.ResultsAmong 1943 patients (mean age 67.3 (17.1), 50.4% women), 107 (5.5%) had died at 30 days. The 4-variable Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (eGFRMDRD4) formula predicted death most accurately. In total, 477 patients (24.5%) had eGFRMDRD4 < 60 ml/min. Observed mortality was higher for intermediate–low-risk and high-risk PE in patients with versus without renal dysfunction. The addition of eGFRMDRD4 information improved model fit, discriminatory capacity, and calibration of the ESC model. Reclassification parameters were significantly increased, yielding 18% reclassification of predicted mortality (p < 0.001). Predicted mortality reclassifications across risk categories were as follows: 63.1% from intermediate–low risk to eGFR-defined intermediate–high risk, 15.8% from intermediate–high risk to eGFR-defined intermediate–low risk, and 21.0% from intermediate–high risk to eGFR-defined high risk. External validation in a cohort of 14,234 eligible patients from the RIETE registry confirmed our findings with a significant improvement of Harrell’s C index and reclassification parameters.ConclusionThe addition of eGFRMDRD4-derived renal dysfunction on top of the prognostic algorithm led to risk reclassification within the intermediate- and high-risk PE categories. The impact of risk stratification integrating renal dysfunction on therapeutic management for acute PE requires further studies.

The predictive value of PaO2/FIO2 and additional parameters for in-hospital mortality in patients with acute pulmonary embolism: an 8-year prospective observational single-center cohort study

BackgroundRapid stratification and appropriate treatment on admission are critical to saving lives of patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE). None of the clinical prediction tools perform well when applied to all patients with acute PE. It may be important to integrate respiratory features into the 2014 European Society of Cardiology model. First, we aimed to assess the relationship between the arterial partial pressure of oxygen/fraction of inspired oxygen (PaO2/FIO2) ratio and in-hospital mortality, determine the optimal cutoff value of PaO2/FIO2, and determine if this value, which is quick and easy to obtain on admission, is a predictor of in-hospital mortality in this population. Second, we aimed to evaluate the potential additional determinants including laboratory parameters that may affect the in-hospital mortality.We hypothesized that the PaO2/FiO2 ratio would be a clinical prediction tool for in-hospital mortality in patients with acute PE.MethodsA prospective single-center observational cohort study was conducted in Beijing Hospital from January 2010 to November 2017. Arterial blood gas analysis data captured on admission, clinical characteristics, risk factors, laboratory data, imaging findings, and in-hospital mortality were compared between survivors and non-survivors. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for in-hospital mortality based on the PaO2/FiO2 value was determined, and the association between the parameters and in-hospital mortality was analyzed by using logistic regression analysis.ResultsBody mass index, history of cancer, PaO2/FiO2 value, pulse rate, cardiac troponin I level, lactate dehydrogenase level, white blood cell count, D-dimer level, and risk stratification measurements differed between survivors and non-survivors. The optimal cutoff value of PaO2/FiO2 for predicting mortality was 265 (AUC = 0.765, P < 0.001). Only a PaO2/FiO2 ratio < 265 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.823–21.483, P = 0.004), history of cancer (95% CI 1.161–15.927, P = 0.029), and risk stratification (95% CI 1.047–16.957, P = 0.043) continued to be associated with an increased risk of in-hospital mortality of acute PE.ConclusionA simple determination of the PaO2/FiO2 ratio at <265 may provide important information on admission about patients’ in-hospital prognosis, and PaO2/FiO2 ratio < 265, history of cancer, and risk stratification are predictors of in-hospital mortality of acute PE.

The SHIFT model combines clinical, electrocardiographic and echocardiographic parameters to predict sudden cardiac death in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy

IntroductionLimitations have been pointed out in the clinical risk prediction model for sudden cardiac death (SCD) of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC), which is recommended for hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) patients. The aim of this study was to determine the SCD risk of the HCM patients enrolled in a Portuguese nationwide registry and to develop a new SCD risk prediction model applicable to our population. Methods and resultsThe cohort consisted of 1022 patients (mean age 53.2±16.4 years, 59% male) enrolled in a Portuguese national HCM registry. During the follow-up period (median five years), 19 patients (1.9%) died suddenly or had aborted SCD or appropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) shock therapy. Through a Cox proportional hazards model, four variables were independently associated with SCD or equivalent: unexplained Syncope, Heart failure signs, Interventricular septum thickness ≥19 mm and FragmenTed QRS complex. These predictors were included in the SHIFT model and individual risk probabilities of SCD at five years were estimated. This model was internally validated using bootstrapping. The C-index of the SHIFT model was 0.81 (95% CI: 0.77-0.83) and the C-index of the ESC model (performed in a subgroup of 349 HCM patients) was 0.77 (95% CI: 0.73-0.81) (p=0.246). ConclusionThe SHIFT model may potentially provide prognostic value and contribute to the clinical decision-making process for ICD implantation for primary prevention of SCD.

Oxygen saturation or respiratory rate to improve risk stratification in hemodynamically stable patients with acute pulmonary embolism

Essentials In acute pulmonary embolism (PE), risk stratification is essential to drive clinical management. Improving the 2014-ESC risk stratification strategy is crucial in hemodynamically stable patients. Oxygen saturation and respiratory rate improve risk stratification in hemodynamically stable PE. Simple and routine tests improve risk stratification of hemodynamically stable PE. SUMMARY: Background In patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE), risk stratification for short-term death is recommended to drive clinical management. A risk stratification strategy combining the simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI), echocardiography and troponin was proposed by the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) in 2014. The identification of hemodynamically stable patients at increased risk of death by this strategy needs improvement. Objective To assess whether further stratification by serial cut-off values of oxygen saturation or respiratory rate improves the accuracy of the ESC risk stratification strategy in hemodynamically stable PE patients. Methods Prospective cohorts of hemodynamically stable patients with PE were merged in a collaborative database. The accuracy of risk stratification for 30-day mortality by the original and a modified 2014 ESC strategy was assessed. Results Overall, 255 patients (27%) were categorized as low, 510 (54%) as intermediate-low and 181 (19%) as intermediate-high risk according to the original 2014 ESC strategy. Thirty-day mortality was 1.2% in low, 10% in intermediate-low and 11% in intermediate-high-risk patients. By adding oxygen saturation in air of < 88%, the discriminatory power of the 2014 ESC model improved for 30-day mortality (c-statistics, 0.71; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.65-0.77 vs. 0.63, 95% CI, 0.56-0.69) and for PE-related death (c-statistics, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.69-0.81 vs. 0.63, 95% CI 0.56-0.69). Conclusions Simple and routine tests, such as oxygen saturation or respiratory rate, could be added to the 2014 ESC strategy for risk stratification to identify hemodynamically stable PE patients at increased risk of death who are potentially candidates for more aggressive treatment.

Assessment of coexisting deep vein thrombosis for risk stratification of acute pulmonary embolism

BackgroundIn patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE), studies have shown an association between coexisting deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and short-term prognosis. It is not known whether complete compression ultrasound testing (CCUS) improves the risk stratification of their disease beyond the recommended prognostic models. MethodsWe included patients with normotensive acute symptomatic PE and prognosticated them with the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) risk model for PE. Subsequently, we determined the prognostic significance of coexisting DVT in patients with various ESC risk categories. The primary endpoint was a complicated course after the diagnosis of PE, defined as death from any cause, haemodynamic collapse, or adjudicated recurrent PE. ResultsAccording to the ESC model, 37% of patients were low-risk, 56% were intermediate-low risk, and 6.7% were intermediate-high risk. CCUS demonstrated coexisting DVT in 375 (44%) patients. Among the 313 patients with low-risk PE, coexisting DVT (46%) did not show a significant increased risk of complicated course (2.8%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.8%–7.0%), compared with those without DVT (0.6%; 95% CI, 0%–3.2%), (P = 0.18). Of the 478 patients with intermediate-low risk PE, a complicated course was 14% and 6.8% for those with and without DVT, respectively (P = 0.01). Of the 57 patients that had intermediate-high risk PE, a complicated course occurred in 17% and 18% for those with and without DVT, respectively (P = 1.0). ConclusionsIn normotensive patients with PE, testing for coexisting DVT might improve risk stratification of patients at intermediate-low risk for short-term complications.

Acute pulmonary embolism: mortality prediction by the 2014 European Society of Cardiology risk stratification model

The European Society of Cardiology (ESC) has proposed an updated risk stratification model for death in patients with acute pulmonary embolism based on clinical scores (Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) or simplified PESI (sPESI)), right ventricle dysfunction (RVD) and elevated serum troponin (2014 ESC model).We assessed the ability of the 2014 ESC model to predict 30-day death after acute pulmonary embolism. Consecutive patients with symptomatic, confirmed pulmonary embolism included in prospective cohorts were merged in a collaborative database. Patients' risk was classified as high (shock or hypotension), intermediate-high (RVD and elevated troponin), intermediate-low (RVD or increased troponin or none) and low (sPESI 0). Study outcomes were death and pulmonary embolism-related death at 30 days.Among 906 patients (mean±sd age 68±16, 489 females), death and pulmonary embolism-related death occurred in 7.2% and 4.1%, respectively. Death rate was 22% in "high-risk" (95% CI 14.0-29.8), 7.7% in "intermediate-high-risk" (95% CI 4.5-10.9) and 6.0% in "intermediate-low-risk" patients (95% CI 3.4-8.6). One of the 196 "low-risk" patients died (0.5%, 95% CI 0-1.0; negative predictive value 99.5%).By using the 2014 ESC model, RVD or troponin tests would be avoided in about 20% of patients (sPESI 0), preserving a high negative predictive value. Risk stratification in patients at intermediate risk requires further improvement.

Comparison of clinical scores for identification of patients with pulmonary embolism at intermediate-high risk of adverse clinical outcome: the prognostic role of plasma lactate.

To compare the prognostic accuracy of the 2014 risk model of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) and of Bova and TELOS scores for identification of normotensive patients with pulmonary embolism (PE) at high risk for short-term adverse events (i.e., intermediate-high risk patients), we retrospectively applied these tests to a prospective cohort of 994 normotensive patients with objectively confirmed PE. Sixty-three (6.3%) patients reached the primary outcome, a composite of hemodynamic collapse and death within 7days from diagnosis. The Bova and TELOS scores classified the same proportion of patients in intermediate-high risk category (5.9 and 5.7%, respectively), with a similar primary outcome rate (18.6 and 21.1%, respectively). The 2014 ESC model classified in the intermediate-high risk category the largest proportion of patients (12.5%, p<0.001 vs Bova and TELOS), with the lowest primary outcome rate (13%, p=ns vs Bova and TELOS). When lactate determination was added to the Bova score, 112 patients (11.2%) were classified in the intermediate-high risk category (p<0.05 vs Bova and TELOS), with a slight increase in the primary outcome rate (25.9%, p=0.014 vs 2014 ESC model), allowing the recognition of a twofold higher number of patients reaching the primary outcome (29 vs 15, 11 and 12 patients in the 2014 ESC model, Bova and TELOS scores, respectively, p<0.01 for all). The 2014 ESC model, Bova and TELOS scores identify a small number of intermediate-high risk patients with PE, without differences among tests. Adding plasma lactate to the Bova score significantly improves the identification of intermediate-high risk patients.

Comparison of two prognostic models for acute pulmonary embolism

Pulmonary embolism severity index (PESI) as an example of clinical model which was designed in 2005, which comprises 11 routinely available clinical predictor variables with different prognostic weights. On the basis of PESI score, each patient is classified into one of five classes (I–V), with a 30day mortality ranging from 1.1% to 24.5%. Patients in risk classes I and II are categorized as low risk and those in risk classes III–V are categorized as high risk. The European society of cardiology (ESC) guidelines have suggested a prognostic model that integrates clinical and laboratory tests which categorize patients, according to individual estimates of pulmonary embolism-related early mortality risk, into high-risk patients (early mortality risk higher than 15%), and non-high-risk patients. However, no study has so far prospectively validated this integrated prognostic model in actual practice. Moreover, the results of most studies supporting the use of biomarkers and echocardiography have not generally been adjusted to established clinical signs of poor outcome. So the aim of this work is to compare the accuracy of PESI and ESC prognostic models in risk stratification of APE patients and their predictive role for short term prognosis, hoping for better risk stratification and therapeutic decision making to improve the outcome of APE. Patients and methodsForty patients who were confirmed as having APE and met the inclusion criteria were enrolled into this study. They were diagnosed as having acute pulmonary embolism through: (1) thorough medical history, (2) clinical examination, (3) radiological evaluation [plain X-ray and computed tomography pulmonary angiography], (4) arterial blood gases, (5) serum level of D-dimer, (6) routine laboratory investigations and (7) electrocardiogram. All studied patients were subjected to the following: (1) assessment of right ventricular dysfunction by: (a) echocardiography, (b) cardiac biomarkers assessment (serum levels of brain natriuretic peptide and troponin I and 2) Prognostic risk stratification of the patients by PESI and ESC models, then assess the patients outcome. ResultsThis study showed thirty-day outcome of APE in the form of survival was reported in 90% and adverse events in 20% of the studied patients where mortality (primary outcome) and complications other than mortality (secondary outcome) had an equal rate (10% each). The percentage of patients in low risk groups was nearly the same in PESI and ESC models. The patients in intermediate class in PESI model was lower than those in ESC model. Conversely the percentage of patients in high risk class in PESI was higher than that in ESC model. This study showed that mortality and complications were increased with increased risk classes in both PESI and ESC models. The highest mortality rate was reported in the high risk class which was statistically significant in both models. Mortality prediction of APE patients in this work is statistically highly significant and more accurate among the high risk class in ESC model than in PESI model with 100% specificity and PPV. At cut-off level 100pg/ml of serum BNP, there were high sensitivity and NPV (100% each) and the highest specificity (91.7%) in predicting the 30-day mortality among APE patients with statistically high significance, in comparison to serum D-dimer and troponin I. Conclusion(1) There is an agreement to great extent in risk stratification of APE patients by PESI and ESC prognostic models, where mortality rate is increased among high risk classes of both models, (2) ESC prognostic model is more accurate than PESI model in mortality prediction of APE patients especially in the high risk class, (3) echocardiographic evidence of RVD and elevated plasma BNP can help to identify APE patients at increased risk of adverse short-term outcome and (4) integration of RVD assessment by echocardiography and BNP to clinical findings improves the prognostic value of ESC model.

Acute pulmonary embolism: mortality prediction by the 2014 European Society of Cardiology risk stratification model.

The European Society of Cardiology (ESC) has proposed an updated risk stratification model for death in patients with acute pulmonary embolism based on clinical scores (Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) or simplified PESI (sPESI)), right ventricle dysfunction (RVD) and elevated serum troponin (2014 ESC model).We assessed the ability of the 2014 ESC model to predict 30-day death after acute pulmonary embolism. Consecutive patients with symptomatic, confirmed pulmonary embolism included in prospective cohorts were merged in a collaborative database. Patients' risk was classified as high (shock or hypotension), intermediate-high (RVD and elevated troponin), intermediate-low (RVD or increased troponin or none) and low (sPESI 0). Study outcomes were death and pulmonary embolism-related death at 30 days.Among 906 patients (mean±sd age 68±16, 489 females), death and pulmonary embolism-related death occurred in 7.2% and 4.1%, respectively. Death rate was 22% in "high-risk" (95% CI 14.0-29.8), 7.7% in "intermediate-high-risk" (95% CI 4.5-10.9) and 6.0% in "intermediate-low-risk" patients (95% CI 3.4-8.6). One of the 196 "low-risk" patients died (0.5%, 95% CI 0-1.0; negative predictive value 99.5%).By using the 2014 ESC model, RVD or troponin tests would be avoided in about 20% of patients (sPESI 0), preserving a high negative predictive value. Risk stratification in patients at intermediate risk requires further improvement.

Comparison of ESC and NICE guidelines for patients with suspected coronary artery disease: evaluation of the pre-test probability risk scores in clinical practice

The European Society of Cardiology (ESC) and UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) have recently published guidelines for investigating patients with suspected coronary artery disease (CAD). Both provide a risk score (RS) to assess the pre-test probability for CAD to guide clinicians to undertake the most effective investigation. The aim of the study was to establish whether there is a difference between the two RS models.We retrospectively reviewed records of 479 patients who presented to a UK district general hospital with chest pain between August 2011 and April 2013. The RS was calculated using ESC and NICE guidelines and compared. From the 479 patients,277(58%) weremale and the mean age was 60years. The mean RS was greater using NICE guidelines compared with ESC (66.3vs 47.9%, 18.4% difference; p<0.0001). The difference in mean RS was smaller in patients with typical chest pain (13.0%). When we divided the cohort based on NICE criteria into 'high'- and 'low'-risk groups, the difference in the mean RS was 24.3% in the 'high'-risk group(p<0.001) compared with 2.8% in the 'low'-risk group. The UK NICE risk score model overestimates risk compared with the ESC model.

Combination and comparison of two models in prognosis of pulmonary embolism: Results from TUrkey Pulmonary Embolism Group (TUPEG) study

BackgroundClinical parameters, biomarkers and imaging-based risk stratification are widely accepted in pulmonary embolism(PE). The present study has investigated the prognostic role of simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (sPESI) score and the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) model. MethodsThis prospective cohort study included a total of 1078 patients from a multi-center registry, with objectively confirmed acute symptomatic PE. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality during the first 30days, and the secondary endpoint included all-cause mortality, nonfatal symptomatic recurrent PE, or nonfatal major bleeding. ResultsOf the 1078 study patients, 95 (8.8%) died within 30days of diagnosis. There was no significant difference between non-low-risk patients ESC [12.2% (103 of 754;)] and high-risk patients as per the sPESI [11.6% (103 of 796)] for 30-day mortality. The nonfatal secondary endpoint occurred in 2.8% of patients in the the sPESI low-risk and 1.9% in the ESC low-risk group. Thirty-day mortality occurred in 2.2% of patients the sPESI low-risk and in 2.2% the ESC low-risk group (P=NS). In the present study, in the combination of the sPESI low-risk and ESC model low-risk mortality rate was 0%. ConclusionsThe sPESI and the ESC model showed a similar performance regarding 30-day mortality and secondary outcomes in the present study. However, the combination of these two models appears to be particularly valuable in PE.

Comparison of Application of the ACC/AHA Guidelines, Adult Treatment Panel III Guidelines, and European Society of Cardiology Guidelines for Cardiovascular Disease Prevention in a European Cohort

The 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) guidelines introduced a prediction model and lowered the threshold for treatment with statins to a 7.5% 10-year hard atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk. Implications of the new guideline's threshold and model have not been addressed in non-US populations or compared with previous guidelines. To determine population-wide implications of the ACC/AHA, the Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP-III), and the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guidelines using a cohort of Dutch individuals aged 55 years or older. We included 4854 Rotterdam Study participants recruited in 1997-2001. We calculated 10-year risks for "hard" ASCVD events (including fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease [CHD] and stroke) (ACC/AHA), hard CHD events (fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction, CHD mortality) (ATP-III), and atherosclerotic CVD mortality (ESC). Events were assessed until January 1, 2012. Per guideline, we calculated proportions of individuals for whom statins would be recommended and determined calibration and discrimination of risk models. The mean age was 65.5 (SD, 5.2) years. Statins would be recommended for 96.4% (95% CI, 95.4%-97.1%; n = 1825) of men and 65.8% (95% CI, 63.8%-67.7%; n = 1523) of women by the ACC/AHA, 52.0% (95% CI, 49.8%-54.3%; n = 985) of men and 35.5% (95% CI, 33.5%-37.5%; n = 821) of women by the ATP-III, and 66.1% (95% CI, 64.0%-68.3%; n = 1253) of men and 39.1% (95% CI, 37.1%-41.2%; n = 906) of women by ESC guidelines. With the ACC/AHA model, average predicted risk vs observed cumulative incidence of hard ASCVD events was 21.5% (95% CI, 20.9%-22.1%) vs 12.7% (95% CI, 11.1%-14.5%) for men (192 events) and 11.6% (95% CI, 11.2%-12.0%) vs 7.9% (95% CI, 6.7%-9.2%) for women (151 events). Similar overestimation occurred with the ATP-III model (98 events in men and 62 events in women) and ESC model (50 events in men and 37 events in women). The C statistic was 0.67 (95% CI, 0.63-0.71) in men and 0.68 (95% CI, 0.64-0.73) in women for hard ASCVD (ACC/AHA), 0.67 (95% CI, 0.62-0.72) in men and 0.69 (95% CI, 0.63-0.75) in women for hard CHD (ATP-III), and 0.76 (95% CI, 0.70-0.82) in men and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.71-0.83) in women for CVD mortality (ESC). In this European population aged 55 years or older, proportions of individuals eligible for statins differed substantially among the guidelines. The ACC/AHA guideline would recommend statins for nearly all men and two-thirds of women, proportions exceeding those with the ATP-III or ESC guidelines. All 3 risk models provided poor calibration and moderate to good discrimination. Improving risk predictions and setting appropriate population-wide thresholds are necessary to facilitate better clinical decision making.

A Strategy Combining Imaging and Laboratory Biomarkers in Comparison With a Simplified Clinical Score for Risk Stratification of Patients With Acute Pulmonary Embolism

This study aimed to assess the performance of two prognostic models-the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) model and the simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (sPESI)-in predicting short-term mortality in patients with pulmonary embolism (PE). We compared the test characteristics of the ESC model and the sPESI for predicting 30-day outcomes in a cohort of 526 patients with objectively confirmed PE. The primary end point of the study was all-cause mortality. The secondary end point included all-cause mortality, nonfatal symptomatic recurrent VTE, or nonfatal major bleeding. Overall, 40 of 526 patients died (7.6%; 95% CI, 5.3%-9.9%) during the first month of follow-up. The sPESI classified fewer patients as low risk (31% [165 of 526], 95% CI, 27%-35%) compared with the ESC model (39% [207 of 526], 95% CI, 35% to 44%; P < .01). Importantly however, low-risk patients based on the sPESI had no 30-day mortality compared with 3.4% (95% CI, 0.9-5.8) in low-risk patients by the ESC model. The secondary end point occurred in 1.8% of patients in the sPESI low-risk and 5.8% in the ESC low-risk group (difference, 4.0 percentage points; 95% CI, 0.2-7.8). The prognostic ability of the ESC model remained significant in the subgroup of patients at high-risk according to the sPESI model (OR 1.95, 95% CI, 1.41 to 2.71, P < .001). Both the sPESI and the ESC model successfully predict 30-day mortality after acute symptomatic PE, but exclusion of an adverse early outcome does not appear to require routine imaging procedures or laboratory biomarker testing.

PULMONARY FUNCTION ASSESSMENT FOR DETERMINATION OF PULMONARY IMPAIRMENT AND DISABILITY EVALUATION

Clinical parameters, biomarkers and imaging-based risk stratification are widely accepted in pulmonary embolism(PE). The present study has investigated the prognostic role of simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (sPESI) score and the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) model.This prospective cohort study included a total of 1078 patients from a multi-center registry, with objectively confirmed acute symptomatic PE. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality during the first 30 days, and the secondary endpoint included all-cause mortality, nonfatal symptomatic recurrent PE, or nonfatal major bleeding.Of the 1078 study patients, 95 (8.8%) died within 30 days of diagnosis. There was no significant difference between non-low-risk patients ESC [12.2% (103 of 754;)] and high-risk patients as per the sPESI [11.6% (103 of 796)] for 30-day mortality. The nonfatal secondary endpoint occurred in 2.8% of patients in the the sPESI low-risk and 1.9% in the ESC low-risk group. Thirty-day mortality occurred in 2.2% of patients the sPESI low-risk and in 2.2% the ESC low-risk group (P = NS). In the present study, in the combination of the sPESI low-risk and ESC model low-risk mortality rate was 0%.The sPESI and the ESC model showed a similar performance regarding 30-day mortality and secondary outcomes in the present study. However, the combination of these two models appears to be particularly valuable in PE.