European Natural Gas Market Research Articles

PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS OF SYSTEM MODERNIZATION OF THE ARCTIC NATURAL GAS EXPORT ON THE EUROPEAN MARKET

A research purpose is the analysis of the European natural gas market environment and the modernization opportunities of the delivery system from Russia in connection with the current geo-economic changes. The main methods are the factorial approaches and the content analysis, which allows allocate and structure this sector’s driving forces. Export of the Russian natural gas on the European market still remains the dominating activity, in terms of the total amounts of deliveries, though over the last ten years its specific weight has been considerably reduced. The situation has sharply become aggravated both in connection with the "Ukrainian" crisis, and that of the European Union policy, which is taking the active measures for the gas supply system diversification. As a result of the conducted research it is proved that the Russian gas transportation system in the Arctic regions requires the strategic upgrade which shall go in two main directions. The first direction is the forming of the new pipeline schemes replacing the unreliable transit routes. The second direction is a rather innovative development of exploration and transportation of the liquefied natural gas which amount exceeds thirty percent in world export and in Russian has not yet reached ten percent. Scientific novelty of the received results consists in system approval of the opportunities of adaptation of Russian export deliveries to the market demand changes. The proposals of increase of the liquefied natural gas exploration in the Arctic regions and formation of the basic centers (special zones) have also a practical importance.

Removing Cross-Border Capacity Bottlenecks in the European Natural Gas Market—A Proposed Merchant-Regulatory Mechanism

We propose a merchant-regulatory framework to promote investment in the European natural gas network infrastructure based on a price cap over two-part tariffs. As suggested by Vogelsang (J Regul Econ 20:141–165, 2001) and Hogan et al. (J Regul Econ 38:113–143, 2010), a profit maximizing network operator facing this regulatory constraint will intertemporally rebalance the variable and fixed part of its two-part tariff so as to expand the congested pipelines, and converge to the Ramsey-Boiteaux equilibrium. We confirm this with actual data from the European natural gas market by comparing the bi-level price-cap model with different reference cases. We analyze the performance of the regulatory approach under different market scenarios, and identify relevant aspects that need to be addressed if the approach were to be implemented.

What drives natural gas consumption in Europe? Analysis and projections

Natural gas is an important fuel source for Europe and it is expected to remain so in the near future. The market power of suppliers is an important structural element of the European natural gas market and long-term investment and contracts necessitate reliable projections of natural gas demand. This research attempts to address this need. It investigates the impact of income, real natural gas prices and the underlying energy demand trend (UEDT) on OECD-Europe natural gas consumption by applying the structural time series technique to annual data over the period 1978 to 2011. The results suggest that, in order of importance, income, the UEDT and natural gas prices all play a role in driving OECD-Europe natural gas consumption with the estimated UEDT having both increasing (gas using) and decreasing (gas saving) periods over the estimation period and the estimated long run income and price elasticities being 1.19 and −0.16 respectively. Furthermore, based upon the estimated relationship, OECD-Europe natural gas consumption is predicted to be somewhere between 572 and 646 bcm (about 472 and 533 mtoe) by 2020.

Perfect Match? European Natural Gas Markets and North American LNG Exports

AbstractEuropean natural gas markets and North American liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports could be seen as a perfect match.

An Econometric Analysis of Correlated Discrete Event Impact on the Price of Natural Gas: The Nord Stream’s Effect on European Markets

In this paper I provide an econometric analysis of correlated discrete event impact on the price of natural gas, namely the Nord Stream’s effect on the European natural gas market. The Nord Stream is a rare large scale event with the potential to induce significant price effects in commodity markets and reshape price dynamics. I collect data from several sources, conduct a series of data transformation techniques, idiosyncratic econometric tests and develop several univariate Arch and Garch estimation models and determine that the implementation of the Nord Stream does in fact have an impact on the price of European natural gas. My research substantiates that the Nord Stream’s effect is priced into European markets during the period between the Nord Stream receiving final approval from the Finnish government on 12th February 2010 and the opening of the 1st pipeline on 11th November 2011. Whilst accounting for the trend, during this period the price of European natural gas is 3.3071% lower. This result is reinforced by a Chow breakpoint test that implies a structural break occurs in the pricing of European natural gas on 12th February 2010. The model also significantly implies that outside of the trend ceteris paribus that a 10% increase in the price of Brent crude oil corresponds to a 1.93% decrease in the price of European natural gas and that a 10% increase in the price of North-Western European coal corresponds to a 3.01427% increase in the price of European natural gas.

Dis-harmony in European Natural Gas Market(s)—Discussion of Standards and Definitions

The European Union attempts to harmonise the European natural gas market(s). In general, this is supported on national levels. Nevertheless, such harmonisation is not yet fully accomplished: neither for the rules nor for the quality specifications nor for the physical quantities and their units. Even if the current economic impact of such dis-harmony is negligible, i.e. that market participants for the time being do not have to bear additional costs caused by the lack of harmonisation, participants in the commodity market are exposed to contractual risks. Potentially, this might lead to reduced competition and reduced liquidity of each single and the European internal market for natural gas.

The Role of Natural Gas in a Low-Carbon Europe: Infrastructure and Regional Supply Security in the Global Gas Model

In this paper, we use the Global Gas Model to analyze the perspectives and infrastructure needs of the European natural gas market until 2050. Three pathways of natural gas consumption in a future low-carbon energy system in Europe are envisaged: i) a decreasing natural gas consumption, along the results of the PRIMES model for the EMF decarbonization scenarios; ii) a moderate increase of natural gas consumption, along the lines of the IEA (2012) World Energy Outlook's New Policy Scenario; and iii) a temporary increase of natural gas use as a bridge technology, followed by a strong decrease after 2030. Our results show that import infrastructure and intra-European transit capacity currently in place or under construction are largely sufficient to accommodate the import needs of the EMF decarbonization scenarios, despite the reduction of domestic production and the increase of import dependency. However, due to strong demand in Asia which draws LNG and imports from Russia, Europe has to increasingly rely on pipeline exports from Africa and the Caspian region from where new pipelines are built. Moreover, pipeline investments open up new import and transit paths, including reverse flow capacity, which improves the diversification of supplies. In the high gas consumption scenario similar pipeline links are realized-though on a larger scale, doubling the costs of infrastructure expansion. In the bridge technology scenario, the utilization rates of (idle) LNG import capacity can be increased for the short period of temporary strong natural gas demand.

Price Discovery in European Natural Gas Markets

We provide the first high-frequency investigation of price discovery within the physical and financial layers of Europe's natural gas markets.Testing not only looks at short-term return dynamics, but also considers each security's contribution to price equilibrium in the longer-term.Results show that UK natural gas futures traded on the Intercontinental Exchange display greater price discovery than physical trading at various hubs throughout Europe.

The Convenience Yield Implied in the European Natural Gas Markets - The Impact of Macrofactors and Weather

This paper determines the convenience yield implied in the European natural gas markets and investigates driving factors and according dynamics. For this, we approximate the convenience yield via an option-based approach, in which the convenience yield is determined as the difference between two average floating-strike Asian options, written on the spot and the other on futures contract, respectively. In a second step, we fit an exponential GARCH model to explain the convenience yield via storage and weather, as well as other key driving factors. The empirical analysis reveals distinct results for the impact of storage, which indicates that the release of natural gas storage levels generates considerably volatility. Furthermore, we illustrate that the mixed evidence and the absence of a clear pattern to explain the convenience yield's characteristics underline the transitory state of the European natural gas market.

Simulating Security of Supply Effects of the Nabucco and South Stream Projects for the European Natural Gas Market

Because of the decrease in domestic production in Europe, additional natural gas volumes will be required. In addition to Nord Stream, the major import pipeline projects, Nabucco and South Stream, have been announced to provide further gas supplies to Europe. This raises the question concerning whether and how these projects contribute to the European Union’s focus on security of supply. Applying the natural gas infrastructure model TIGER, this paper investigates the impact of these pipeline projects on southeastern Europe’s gas supply. Gas flows and marginal cost prices are evaluated in general and considering the possibility of supply disruptions via Ukraine for the year 2020. The model results show a positive impact of these pipelines on security of supply despite few consumer cut-offs that result from intra-European bottlenecks. South Stream is only highly utilized in case of a Ukraine crisis, supporting the idea that its main purpose is to bypass Ukraine.

A Generalized Nash–Cournot Model for the Northwestern European Natural Gas Markets with a Fuel Substitution Demand Function: The GaMMES Model

This article presents a dynamic Generalized Nash–Cournot model to describe the evolution of the natural gas markets. The major players along the gas chain are depicted including: producers, consumers, storage and pipeline operators, as well as intermediate local traders. Our economic structure description takes into account market power and the demand representation tries to capture the possible fuel substitution that can be made between the consumption of oil, coal, and natural gas in the overall fossil energy consumption. We also take into account long-term contracts in an endogenous way, which makes the model a Generalized Nash Equilibrium problem. We discuss some means to solve such problems. Our model has been applied to represent the European natural gas market and forecast, until 2030, after a calibration process, consumption, prices, production, and natural gas dependence. A comparison between our model, a more standard one that does not take into account energy substitution, and the European Commission natural gas forecasts is carried out to analyze our results. Finally, in order to illustrate the possible use of fuel substitution, we studied the evolution of the natural gas price as compared to the coal and oil prices.

Price Patterns Resulting from Different Producer Behavior in Spatial Equilibrium

We are concerned with economic analyses of markets from the perspective of supporting a decision maker selling in the market. The competitive pressure and the price formation are central issues. The goal of this paper is to highlight the remarkably different price patterns obtained from different modes of seller behavior in a spatial market. This is exemplified by models of price taking versus the oligopolistic Cournot mode of behavior. Although a particular market, namely the European market for natural gas is used for illustration, the insights from this exercise apply to any industry where suppliers have market power, their locations differ, and their costs of supplying individual segments of the market are non-negligible and differ. When market power is present and one seeks insight into competition and price formation, detail in other dimensions cannot compensate for not modeling the exertion of market power.

SAMPLE AVERAGE APPROXIMATION METHOD FOR SOLVING A DETERMINISTIC FORMULATION FOR BOX CONSTRAINED STOCHASTIC VARIATIONAL INEQUALITY PROBLEMS

In this paper, we discuss the Expected Residual Minimization (ERM) method, which is to minimize the expected residue of some merit function for box constrained stochastic variational inequality problems (BSVIPs). This method provides a deterministic model, which formulates BSVIPs as an optimization problem. We first study the conditions under which the level sets of the ERM problem are bounded. Then, we show that solutions of the ERM formulation are robust in the sense that they may have a minimum sensitivity with respect to random parameter variations in BSVIPs. Since the integrality involved in the ERM problem is difficult to compute generally, we then employ sample average approximation method to solve it. Finally, we show that the global optimal solutions and generalized KKT points of the approximate problems converge to their counterparts of the ERM problem. On the other hand, as an application, we consider the model of European natural gas market under price uncertainty. Preliminary numerical experiments indicate that the proposed approach is applicable.

Removing Cross-Border Capacity Bottlenecks in the European Natural Gas Market: A Proposed Merchant-Regulatory Mechanism

We propose a merchant-regulatory framework to promote investment in the European natural gas network infrastructure based on a price cap over two-part tariffs. As suggested by Vogelsang (2001) and Hogan et al. (2010), a profit maximizing network operator facing this regulatory constraint will intertemporally rebalance the variable and fixed part of its two-part tariff so as to expand the congested pipelines, and converge to the Ramsey-Boiteaux equilibrium. We confirm this with actual data from the European natural gas market by comparing the bi-level price-cap model with a base case, a no-regulation case, and a welfare benchmark case, and by performing sensitivity analyses. In all cases, the incentive model is the best decentralized regulatory alternative that efficiently develops the European pipeline system.

Identification of congestion and valuation of transport infrastructures in the European natural gas market

Rising import dependency, increasing market liberalization and cross-border trade and security of supply fears facilitate investments in natural gas supply infrastructures in Europe. In order to ensure an efficient allocation of capital resources, it is important to identify congestion in the existing system and investment requirements based on economic principles. This paper first outlines an analytical framework for the identification of bottlenecks and the evaluation of transport capacities and the cost of congestion based on nodal prices. Secondly, an infrastructure model of the European gas market with high temporal and spatial granularity which exhibits the characteristics of the theoretical model is introduced. Parameterizing the model with the existing infrastructure and applying a demand and supply scenario for the year 2015, congestion mark-ups between countries in Europe are estimated. This approach indicates potential bottlenecks which might arise within the next five years and quantifies their economic costs. With only some temporary congestion, physical market integration is found to be high in Western Europe. In Eastern Europe, severe bottlenecks are identified and discussed. Implications for efficient investment decisions arising from the findings are examined in the context of the theoretical considerations.

Modeling the European natural gas market during the 2009 Russian–Ukrainian gas conflict: Ex-post simulation and analysis

Analyzing short-term security of supply or the degree of physical market integration in the European gas market requires models with high spatial and temporal granularity which allow to do so in a comprehensive manner taking interdependencies in the supply infrastructure into account. This paper presents an infrastructure and dispatch model of the European gas market which enables such analyses. The ex-post application of the model to the January 2009 Russia–Ukraine crisis yields that the market’s reaction to the crisis was close to the optimal least-cost response implying a very efficient handling of the transit disruption by the gas sector. While large diversions of gas flows from the west to the east were possible, a high dependence on one import route, limited infrastructure flexibility and storage volumes in eastern Europe hampered security of supply in this region. Generally, the results confirm the importance of gas stocks in mitigating risks from supply disruptions as additional storage withdrawals compensated more than two thirds of supply shortfalls during the crisis. Further simulations also demonstrate that increasing flexibility of the transport system (reverse flow capabilities) enhances security of supply for further consumers in eastern Europe, but not for all of them.

A Strategic Model Of European Gas Supply

Structural changes in the European natural gas market such as liberalization, increasing domestic demand, and increasing import dependency have triggered new attempts to model these markets accurately. In this paper, we propose an exhaustive model of the European natural gas supply including the possibility of strategic behaviour of the agents along the value-added chain. We structure it as a two-stage-game with natural gas exports to Europe (first stage) and wholesale trade within Europe (second stage). The case of non-cooperative Cournot competition at both stages proves to be the most realistic scenario. The results of the perfect competition and cartel scenario are also presented. Our results suggest that the main suppliers of natural gas to Europe (Russia, Algeria, the Netherlands, Norway) remain dominant, but that they are complemented by overseas supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG). The model also enables us to identify transport infrastructure bottlenecks where transport capacity constraints are binding.

The future of the European natural gas market: A quantitative assessment

Abstract The debate over the availability of conventional natural gas has been nearly as strong as that for conventional oil. In Europe, the debate is strengthened due to the region’s dependence on natural gas from outside countries. In addition, concern has been expressed by some energy experts in recent years about an imminent shortage of natural gas from Europe, caused supposedly by dwindling natural gas resources. Thus, the purpose of this analysis is to address the concern by assessing the availability of natural gas in the region. This is done by estimating a cumulative availability curve showing natural gas endowment versus production costs. The findings indicate that natural gas in Europe is more available and economic than often assumed. Increased research and development of this potential could help increase energy security in the region.

Intragas - A Stylized Model of the European Natural Gas Network

We present an optimization model of the European natural gas market which is intended for the use within a regulatory approach providing incentives for efficient transmission investments. The stylized model is designed as welfare maximization taking into account production, pipeline, LNG, and storage constraints. We develop several scenarios to analyze the future development of the European natural gas market.

Does the European natural gas market pass the competitive benchmark of the theory of storage? Indirect tests for three major trading points

This paper presents the first comparative analysis of the relationship between natural gas storage utilization and price patterns at three major European trading points. Using two indirect tests developed by Fama and French (1987, 1988) that are applied in other commodity markets, we impose the no arbitrage condition to model the efficiency of the natural gas market. The results reveal that while operators of European storage facilities realize seasonal arbitrage profits, substantial arbitrage potentials remain. We suggest that the indirect approach is well suited to provide market insights for periods with limited data. We find that overall market performance differs substantially from the competitive benchmark of the theory of storage.