European Mid-latitudes Research Articles

A case study on the impact of severe convective storms on the water vapor mixing ratio in the lower mid-latitude stratosphere observed in 2019 over Europe

Abstract. Extreme convective events in the troposphere not only have immediate impacts on the surface, but they can also influence the dynamics and composition of the lower stratosphere (LS). One major impact is the moistening of the LS by overshooting convection. This effect plays a crucial role in climate feedback, as small changes of water vapor in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) have a large impact on the radiative budget of the atmosphere. In this case study, we investigate water vapor injections into the LS by two consecutive convective events in the European mid-latitudes within the framework of the MOSES (Modular Observation Solutions for Earth Systems) measurement campaign during the early summer of 2019. Using balloon-borne instruments, measurements of convective water vapor injection into the stratosphere were performed. Such measurements with a high vertical resolution are rare. The magnitude of the stratospheric water vapor reached up to 12.1 ppmv (parts per million by volume), with an estimated background value of 5 ppmv. Hence, the water vapor enhancement reported here is of the same order of magnitude as earlier reports of water vapor injection by convective overshooting over North America. However, the overshooting took place in the extratropical stratosphere over Europe and has a stronger impact on long-term water vapor mixing ratios in the stratosphere compared to the monsoon-influenced region in North America. At the altitude of the measured injection, a sharp drop in a local ozone enhancement peak makes the observed composition of air very unique with high ozone up to 650 ppbv (parts per billion by volume) and high water vapor up to 12.1 ppmv. ERA-Interim does not show any signal of the convective overshoot, the water vapor values measured by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) in the LS are lower than the in situ observations, and the ERA5 overestimated water vapor mixing ratios. Backward trajectories of the measured injected air masses reveal that the moistening of the LS took place several hours before the balloon launch. This is in good agreement with the reanalyses, which shows a strong change in the structure of isotherms and a sudden and short-lived increase in potential vorticity at the altitude and location of the trajectory. Similarly, satellite data show low cloud-top brightness temperatures during the overshooting event, which indicates an elevated cloud top height.

Lateglacial and Holocene changes in vegetation and human subsistence around Lake Zhizhitskoye, East European midlatitudes, derived from radiocarbon-dated pollen and archaeological records

The numerous lake and peat sedimentary archives of Central European Russia are ideal for studying the Lateglacial–Holocene climate and vegetation history of the region. However, robustly dated palaeoenvironmental records have only become available in the last decade and are still few and far between. Together with the continuously growing archaeological record and increasing focus on absolute dating of cultural assemblages, such records, where available, offer an excellent opportunity to study human-environment interactions in the region. For this study we selected one of the most detailed regional pollen records, from a 4.5-m-long sediment section from Zmeinoe Mire (56°16′53″ N, 31°15′36″ E) at Zhizhitskoye Lake (165 m a.s.l.). We performed quantitative pollen-based biome reconstruction and constructed a Bayesian age-depth model to ensure maximum chronological control of the sediment succession. To link the reconstructed vegetation changes to human activities, we gathered and summarized available archaeological data from the study area. Our results show that humid conditions and taiga-like patchy forests (spruce, pine, birch) dominated the study region during the Lateglacial. The Early Holocene (ca. 11,650–8000 cal yr BP) was marked by a warming and drying trend indicated by the spread of cool-temperate summergreen broad-leaved trees and shrubs (elm, lime, hazel) and the retreat of spruce. Warmest conditions, expressed by the maximum contribution of temperate deciduous woody taxa to the pollen assemblages, were recorded during the Middle Holocene (ca. 8000–4000 cal yr BP) when Mesolithic and Neolithic hunter-fisher-gatherer groups flourished in the region. The pollen record suggests that the regional climate became cooler and wetter after 4000 cal yr BP, which may explain the decline of the Neolithic pile dwelling settlement Naumovo at Zhizhitskoye Lake around 3800 cal yr BP. Evidence for human impact on natural forest vegetation becomes visible from 5000 cal yr BP, although it remains at modest levels until the end of the Neolithic (3500–3000 cal yr BP). Decline in arboreal pollen percentages intensified after ca. 2800 cal yr BP, indicating the onset of increased deforestation for pasture, farmland, construction material and fuel by Iron Age populations. This is in line with the foundation of the fortified Iron Age Anashkino settlement north of Zhizhitskoye Lake dated to around 2750 cal yr BP. Forest clearance further increased during the second half of the Iron Age (5th century BCE–5th century CE) and again from ca. 1200 cal yr BP after the onset of the Middle Ages.

Mapping the Photochemistry of European Mid-Latitudes Rivers: An Assessment of Their Ability to Photodegrade Contaminants.

The abiotic photochemical reactions that take place naturally in sunlit surface waters can degrade many contaminants that pose concern to water bodies for their potentially toxic and long-term effects. This works aims at assessing the ability of European rivers to photoproduce reactive transient intermediates, such as HO• radicals and the excited triplet states of chromophoric dissolved organic matter (3CDOM*), involved in pollutant degradation. A photochemical mapping of the steady-state concentrations of these transients was carried out by means of a suitable modeling tool, in the latitude belt between 40 and 50°N. Such a map allowed for the prediction of the photochemical lifetimes of the phenylurea herbicide isoproturon (mostly undergoing photodegradation upon reaction with HO• and especially 3CDOM*) across different European countries. For some rivers, a more extensive dataset was available spanning the years 1990–2002, which allowed for the computation of the steady-state concentration of the carbonate radicals (CO3•−). With these data, it was possible to assess the time trends of the photochemical half-lives of further contaminants (atrazine, ibuprofen, carbamazepine, and clofibric acid). The calculated lifetimes were in the range of days to weeks, which might or might not allow for efficient depollution depending on the river-water flow velocity.

Evidence of vertical coupling: meteorological storm Fabienne on 23 September 2018 and its related effects observed up to the ionosphere

Abstract. A severe meteorological storm system on the frontal border of cyclone Fabienne passing above central Europe was observed on 23–24 September 2018. Large meteorological systems are considered to be important sources of the wave-like variability visible/detectable through the atmosphere and even up to ionospheric heights. Significant departures from regular courses of atmospheric and ionospheric parameters were detected in all analyzed datasets through atmospheric heights. Above Europe, stratospheric temperature and wind significantly changed in coincidence with fast frontal transition (100–110 km h−1). Zonal wind at 1 and 0.1 hPa changes from the usual westward before the storm to eastward after the storm. With this change are connected changes in temperature where at 1 hPa the analyzed area is colder and at 0.1 hPa warmer. Within ionospheric parameters, we have detected significant wave-like activity occurring shortly after the cold front crossed the observational point. During the storm event, both by Digisonde DPS-4D and continuous Doppler sounding equipment, we have observed strong horizontal plasma flow shears and time-limited increase plasma flow in both the northern and western components of ionospheric drift. The vertical component of plasma flow during the storm event is smaller with respect to the corresponding values on preceding days. The analyzed event of an exceptionally fast cold front of cyclone Fabienne fell into the recovery phase of a minor–moderate geomagnetic storm observed as a negative ionospheric storm at European mid-latitudes. Hence, ionospheric observations consist both of disturbances induced by moderate geomagnetic storms and effects originating in convective activity in the troposphere. Nevertheless, taking into account a significant change in the global circulation pattern in the stratosphere, we conclude that most of the observed wave-like oscillations in the ionosphere during the night of 23–24 September can be directly attributed to the propagation of atmospheric waves launched on the frontal border (cold front) of cyclone Fabienne. The frontal system acted as an effective source of atmospheric waves propagating upward up to the ionosphere.

Long-term aspects of nighttime spread F over a low mid-latitude European station

In an effort to explore the morphology of nighttime spread F at the lower mid-latitude European station of Nicosia, Cyprus (35°N, 33°E geographic; magnetic dip. 29.38°N), all ionograms recorded by the DPS-4D digisonde during the interval 2009–2016 have been analyzed. Subsequent detailed investigation was performed to establish the possible effect of various triggering mechanisms on spread F within the framework of Perkins instability on a statistical basis by correlating spread F occurrence particular wave pattern signatures (Satellite Trace/Multiple-reflected Echoes), gravity wave signatures, F layer uplift (h'F) and unstable sporadic E layers. The results verify the systematic manifestation and therefore the significance of TIDs and unstable sporadic E layers as triggering factors responsible for seeding spread F development and underline the frequent appearance of multi-reflected echoes and satellite traces as dominant precursors of mid-latitude spread F over European latitudes for the first time. Furthermore clear seasonal characteristics and inverse solar activity dependence of spread F occurrence in lower European mid-latitudes is established similar to southern hemisphere studies undertaken previously.

Extreme precipitation events over north-western Europe: getting water from the tropics

Our capability to adapt to extreme precipitation events is linked to our skill in predicting their magnitude and timing. Synoptic features (such as Atmospheric Rivers) developing over the North Atlantic Ocean are known as the source of the majority of water vapour transport into European mid-latitudes, and are associated with episodes of heavy and prolonged rainfall over UK and north western Europe. Thus, a better understanding of the North Atlantic atmospheric conditions prior the occurrence of extreme precipitation events over Europe could help in improving our capability to predict them. We build on atmospheric re-analyses at high spatial resolution (such as JRA-55 and MERRA), on a daily time scale, to highlight the anomalous path of the vertically integrated water content, transferring water from the western tropical North Atlantic to high latitudes and fuelling the storms developing in the North Atlantic sector, bound to affect Europe as responsible of the most intense precipitation events. The systematic link between anomalous north-eastward transport of vertically integrated water (precipitable water) from the western North Atlantic and anomalously high pressure patterns in the central North Atlantic, developing 5 days prior the extreme precipitation occurrence, suggest the central North Atlantic surface pressure as a potential precursor of extreme precipitation events.

Multi-station investigation of spread F over Europe during low to high solar activity

Spread F is an ionospheric phenomenon which has been reported and analyzed extensively over equatorial regions on the basis of the Rayleigh-Taylor (R-T) instability. It has also been investigated over midlatitude regions, mostly over the Southern Hemisphere with its generation attributed to the Perkins instability mechanism. Over midlatitudes it has also been correlated with geomagnetic storms through the excitation of travelling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) and subsequent F region uplifts. The present study deals with the occurrence rate of nighttime spread F events and their diurnal, seasonal and solar cycle variation observed over three stations in the European longitude sector namely Nicosia (geographic Lat: 35.29 °N, Long: 33.38 °E geographic: geomagnetic Lat: 29.38 °N), Athens (geographic Lat: 37.98 °N, Long: 23.73 °E geographic: geomagnetic Lat: 34.61 °N) and Pruhonice (geographic Lat: 50.05 °N, Long: 14.41 °E geographic: geomagnetic Lat: 47.7 °N) during 2009, 2015 and 2016 encompassing periods of low, medium and high solar activity, respectively. The latitudinal and longitudinal variation of spread F occurrence was examined by considering different instability triggering mechanisms and precursors which past literature identified as critical to the generation of spread F events. The main findings of this investigation is an inverse solar cycle and annual temporal dependence of the spread F occurrence rate and a different dominant spread F type between low and high European midlatitudes.

Midlatitude postsunset plasma bubbles observed over Europe during intense storms in April 2000 and 2001

AbstractPlasma bubbles are prevalent features of the equatorial/low‐latitude ionosphere which are seldom observed at middle and high latitudes. Understanding the influence of geomagnetic storms on plasma bubbles' migration to higher latitudes is an important space weather topic, since a geomagnetic storm is an important phenomenon of space weather. This paper reports on the first observations of postsunset/evening midlatitude plasma bubbles in the European sector during the main phase of severe storms (Dst≤−200 nT) on 6 April 2000 and 11 April 2001. Plasma depletions observed in Global Navigation Satellite System total electron content measurements are confirmed with those observed from in situ Defense Meteorological Satellite Program ion density measurements. The results show that the plasma bubbles were migrating north at virtual speeds of 400 m/s and on each of the storm days they extended as far north as ∼42° (geographic latitude). It is estimated that the plasma bubbles may have grown to a maximum apex height of approximately 4000 km. During the time of bubble occurrence, the evening midlatitude plasma was enhanced and the equatorial ionization anomaly extended to European midlatitudes. In addition, evidence of the upward plasma motion was found in ionosonde hmF2 and h'F measurements, while the interplanetary electric field Ey was enhanced. This was found to suggest that the possible mechanism for the enhancement of midlatitude plasma and subsequent midlatitude plasma bubbles occurrence was the eastward penetration electric field associated with Bz southward turning.

(MIS3 & 2) millennial oscillations in Greenland dust and Eurasian aeolian records – A paleosol perspective

Since their discovery, the abrupt climate changes that punctuated the last glacial period (∼110.6–14.62 ka) have attracted considerable attention. Originating in the North-Atlantic area, these abrupt changes have been recorded in ice, marine and terrestrial records all over the world, but especially in the Northern Hemisphere, with various environmental implications. Ice-core records of unprecedented temporal resolution from northern Greenland allow to specify the timing of these abrupt changes, which are associated with sudden temperature increases in Greenland over a few decades, very precisely. The continental records have, so far, been mainly interpreted in terms of temperature, precipitation or vegetation changes between the relatively warm “Greenland Interstadials” (GI) and the cooler “Greenland Stadials” (GS). Here we compare records from Greenland ice and northwestern European eolian deposits in order to establish a link between GI and the soil development in European mid-latitudes, as recorded in loess sequences. For the different types of observed paleosols, we use the correlation with the Greenland records to propose estimates of the maximum time lapses needed to achieve the different degrees of maturation and development. To identify these time lapses more precisely, we compare two independent ice-core records: δ18O and dust concentration, indicating variations of atmospheric temperature and dustiness in the Greenland area, respectively. Our method slightly differs from the definition of a GI event duration applied in other studies, where the sharp end of the δ18O decrease alone defines the end of a GI. We apply the same methodology to both records (i.e., the GIs are defined to last from the beginning of the abrupt δ18O increase or dust concentration decrease until the time when δ18O or dust recur to their initial value before the GI onset), determined both visually and algorithmically, and compare them to published estimates of GI timing and duration. The duration of the GI and consequently the maximum time for paleosol development varies between 200 and 4200 years when visually determined and between 200 and 4800 years when estimated algorithmically for GI 17 to 2, i.e. an interval running from 60 ka to 23 ka b2k (age before 2000 AD). Furthermore, we investigate the abruptness of the transition from stadial to interstadial conditions, which initiates the paleosol development. The average transition duration is 55.4 ± 16.1 (56.8 ± 19.6) years when determined visually, and 36.4 ± 13.4 (60.00 ± 21.2) years when determined algorithmically for the δ18O (dust concentration). The δ18O increases correspond to a mean temperature difference of 11.8 °C on the top of the Greenland ice sheet, associated with substantial reorganizations of the ecosystems in mid-latitude Europe.

ML-CIRRUS: The Airborne Experiment on Natural Cirrus and Contrail Cirrus with the High-Altitude Long-Range Research Aircraft HALO

Abstract The Midlatitude Cirrus experiment (ML-CIRRUS) deployed the High Altitude and Long Range Research Aircraft (HALO) to obtain new insights into nucleation, life cycle, and climate impact of natural cirrus and aircraft-induced contrail cirrus. Direct observations of cirrus properties and their variability are still incomplete, currently limiting our understanding of the clouds’ impact on climate. Also, dynamical effects on clouds and feedbacks are not adequately represented in today’s weather prediction models. Here, we present the rationale, objectives, and selected scientific highlights of ML-CIRRUS using the G-550 aircraft of the German atmospheric science community. The first combined in situ–remote sensing cloud mission with HALO united state-of-the-art cloud probes, a lidar and novel ice residual, aerosol, trace gas, and radiation instrumentation. The aircraft observations were accompanied by remote sensing from satellite and ground and by numerical simulations. In spring 2014, HALO performed 16 flights above Europe with a focus on anthropogenic contrail cirrus and midlatitude cirrus induced by frontal systems including warm conveyor belts and other dynamical regimes (jet streams, mountain waves, and convection). Highlights from ML-CIRRUS include 1) new observations of microphysical and radiative cirrus properties and their variability in meteorological regimes typical for midlatitudes, 2) insights into occurrence of in situ–formed and lifted liquid-origin cirrus, 3) validation of cloud forecasts and satellite products, 4) assessment of contrail predictability, and 5) direct observations of contrail cirrus and their distinction from natural cirrus. Hence, ML-CIRRUS provides a comprehensive dataset on cirrus in the densely populated European midlatitudes with the scope to enhance our understanding of cirrus clouds and their role for climate and weather.

Dynamic and Thermal Processes in the Mid-Latitude Ionosphere over Kharkov, Ukraine (49.6° N, 36.3° E), During the 13–15 November 2012 Magnetic Storm: Calculation Results

Calculation results of the variations of dynamic and thermal process parameters in geospace plasma during the 13–15 November 2012, magnetic storm (MS) over Kharkov are presented. The calculations were based on experimental data obtained on the Kharkov incoherent scatter radar, single in the European mid-latitudes. Calculations showed that during the MS there took place an increase, by modulus, of the values of vertical component of transfer velocity, due to ambipolar diffusion, up to a factor of 1.4–2.1. During the MS there took place a decrease of the values of energy input to the electron gas by about 20–35%. During the main phase of MS, the heat flux density transferred by electrons increased up to a factor of 2–2.5. Results of estimates of the zonal component electric field value Ey are presented. During the MS the value of Ey was −9.5 mV/m. The vertical component of plasma velocity due to electromagnetic drift vEB has been calculated.

The oldest hominin butchery in European mid-latitudes at the Jaramillo site of Untermassfeld (Thuringia, Germany)

The late Early Pleistocene site of Untermassfeld, dated to the Jaramillo subchron (ca. 1.07 millions of years ago), is well known for its rich Epivillafranchian fauna. It has also recently yielded stone artefacts attesting hominin occupation. Now, we report here, for the first time, evidence of hominin butchery such as cut marks and intentional hammerstone-related bone breakage. This probable subsistence behaviour was detected in a small faunal subsample recovered from levels with Mode 1 stone tools. The butchered faunal assemblage was found during fieldwork and surveying in fluvial riverbanks (Lower Fluviatile Sands) and channel erosion sediments (Upper Fluviatile Sands). The frequent occurrence of butchery traces on bones of large-sized herd animals (i.e., Bison) may imply a greater need for meat in seasonal habitats characterised by a depletion of nutritive plants in winter. Early access to carcasses, before their consumption by carnivores, provided hominins with sufficient quantities of meat. This access was acquired with a Mode 1 lithic industry, to ensure food procurement and survival at high latitudes in Europe. Stone tools and faunal remains with signs of anthropic intervention recovered at Untermassfeld are evidence of the oldest hominin settlement at continental mid-latitudes (50° N).

Predictability of the dispersion of Fukushima-derived radionuclides and their homogenization in the atmosphere

Long-range simulation of the dispersion of air pollutants in the atmosphere is one of the most challenging tasks in geosciences. Application of precise and fast numerical models in risk management and decision support can save human lives and can diminish consequences of an accidental release. Disaster at Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant has been the most serious event in the nuclear technology and industry in the recent years. We present and discuss the results of the numerical simulations on dispersion of Fukushima-derived particulate 131I and 137Cs using a global scale Lagrangian particle model. We compare concentrations and arrival times, using two emission scenarios, with the measured data obtained from 182 monitoring stations located all over the Northern Hemisphere. We also investigate the homogenization of isotopes in the atmosphere. Peak concentrations were predicted with typical accuracy of one order of magnitude showing a general underestimation in the case of 131I but not for 137Cs. Tropical and Arctic plumes, as well as the early detections in American and European midlatitudes were generally well predicted, however, the later regional-scale mixing could not be captured by the model. Our investigation highlights the importance of the parameterization of free atmospheric turbulence.

Vertical TEC representation by IRI 2012 and IRI Plas models for European midlatitudes

Vertical total electron content (vTEC) values computed using IRI-2012 and IRI Plas models have been compared with diurnal GPS vTEC data derived from European mid-latitude GPS station Potsdam. Comparative data-model analysis does not reveal good performance in vTEC representation. It was found that new extension of IRI model – IRI Plas – cannot represent correctly the vTEC variations over European midlatitudes and mainly overestimates GPS vTEC especially for low and moderate solar activity. In order to estimate the source of the data-model discrepancies, the case-study with detailed analysis of the model simulated electron density profiles was done. It was obtained that all models do not represent correctly the topside profile part and tend to overestimate the electron density higher than F2 peak. So, the main problem of the IRI vTEC representation is not situated in the plasmaspheric part, its absence in IRI model or its presence in IRI Plas model, the main source of the resulted discrepancies is still in the IRI topside ionosphere representation.

Ionospheric delay corrections for single-frequency GPS receivers over Europe using tomographic mapping

The majority of navigation satellites receivers operate on a single frequency and experience a positioning error due to the ionospheric delay. This can be compensated for using a variety of approaches that are compared in this paper. The study focuses on the last solar maximum. A 4D tomographic imaging technique is used to map the ionospheric electron density over the European region during 2002 and 2003. The electron density maps are then used to calculate the excess propagation delay on the L1 frequency experienced by GPS receivers at selected locations across Europe. The excess delay is applied to correct the pseudo-range single frequency observations at each location and the improvements to the resulting positioning are calculated. The real-time tomographic technique is shown to give navigation solutions that are better than empirical modelling methods and approach the accuracy of the full dual-frequency solution. The improvements in positioning accuracy vary from day to day depending on ionospheric conditions but can be up to 25 m during mid-day during these solar maximum conditions at European mid-latitudes.

Interval‐based statistical validation of operational seasonal forecasts in Spain conditioned to El Niño–Southern Oscillation events

As opposed to the tropics, operational seasonal forecasting systems have shown little or no skill in European midlatitudes. In this paper we explore the potential source of predictability in this region given by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events; in particular we analyze winter rainfall in Spain. First, we apply a simple statistical method to assess the teleconnections between rainfall records in 123 gauges over Spain and ENSO events during the last 40 years. A significant teleconnection for dry winter episodes is found associated with La Niña events, extending the results obtained in previous studies. Then, we adapt the statistical method to perform operational seasonal forecasts validation conditioned to ENSO events; in particular we consider a state‐of‐the‐art operational model, the System2 from ECMWF. The validation method defines a forecast interval to account for the ensemble spread, and applies a simple skill measure based on the proportion of hits (observations falling into the forecast interval) compared with a random forecast. As a result, we uncover the significant skill of operational seasonal predictions for reproducing the dry winter episodes associated with La Niña events (a window of opportunity for operational seasonal forecast in midlatitudes). Finally, the results are improved using statistical downscaling methods and some sensitivity studies are conducted. The analysis presented in this paper can be extended to other regions under the influence of any seasonal predictability‐driving factor.

Palaeohydrological changes and human-impact history over the last millennium recorded at Lake Joux in the Jura Mountains, Switzerland

On the basis of sediment and pollen analyses of a radiocarbon-dated sediment sequence from Lake Joux in the Swiss Jura Mountains (west-central Europe), this paper presents a high-resolution record of lake-level and vegetation changes for the last millennium. The lake-level record makes it possible to determine that low-stands of the water-table dominated at c. AD 1200—1400, and from 1720 onward, with interruptions by short-lived rise events at c. AD 1340 and 1840. Highstands prevailed at c. AD 1100, and around AD 1450, 1550 and 1700. The comparison of the Joux lake-level record with a solar irradiance record based on cosmogenic nucleides supports the hypothesis of a major solar forcing of climate variations in west-central Europe over the last millennium. In agreement with other palaeohydrological records established in Western Europe and in the central North Atlantic Ocean, the Joux lake-level record suggests that, on a multicentennial scale, the period of the `Little Ice Age' coincided in the European mid-latitudes with wetter climatic conditions, and probably with an increase in summer precipitation. Variations in the hydrological cycle appear to have been associated with changes in the general atmospheric circulation pattern, probably coupled with variations in oceanic circulation and solar activity. The Joux record also points to changes in water resources expected to result from ongoing global warming. Finally, despite the severe climatic conditions which prevail in the Joux Valley, the human impact history at Lake Joux over the last millennium seems to reflect political choices and economic context more than climatic changes.

Implications of enhanced persistence of atmospheric circulation for the occurrence and severity of temperature extremes

AbstractThe relationship between persistent atmospheric circulation patterns over Europe and surface air temperature anomalies is studied for the 20th century using the Hess–Brezowsky catalogue of circulation types and temperature data from Prague. Circulation types significantly conducive to heat and cold waves are detected. It is demonstrated that the persistence of the circulation patterns is linked to surface air temperature anomalies and the occurrence and severity of temperature extremes that become more pronounced under more persistent circulation. The consequences vary for warm and cold extremes, depending on features related to atmospheric dynamics (e.g. air‐mass advection and fronts). The intensification of anomalies due to higher persistence of circulation patterns would likely be more important for warm temperature extremes than the cold ones. The recently observed increases in the frequency and severity of heat waves over Europe are likely related to enhanced persistence of the atmospheric circulation, and the impacts of the expected climate change on the occurrence and severity of temperature extremes may be exacerbated by more persistent circulation patterns over the European midlatitudes. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society

Bjerknes’ hypothesis on the coldness during AD 1790–1820 revisited

The aim of this paper is to re-examine and quantify a hypothesis first put forward by J. Bjerknes concerning the anomalous coldness during the AD 1790–1820 period in western Europe. Central to Bjerknes’ hypothesis is an anomalous interaction between ocean and atmosphere studied here using an ocean-atmosphere coupled climate model of intermediate complexity. A reconstruction of the sea-level pressure pattern over the North Atlantic sector averaged over the period 1790–1820 is assimilated in this model, using a recently developed technique which has not been applied to paleoclimatic modelling before. This technique ensures that averaged over the simulation the reconstructed pattern is retrieved whilst leaving atmospheric and climatic variability to develop freely. In accordance with Bjerknes’ hypothesis, the model results show anomalous southward advection of polar waters into the northeastern North Atlantic in the winter season, lowering the sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) there with 0.3–1.0°C. This SST anomaly is persistent into the summer season. A decrease in western European winter surface air temperatures is found which can be related almost completely to advection of cold polar air. The decrease in summer surface air temperatures is related to a combination of low SSTs and anomalous atmospheric circulation. The modelled winter and summer temperatures in Europe compare favourably with reconstructed temperatures. Enhanced baroclinicity at the Atlantic seaboard and over Baffin Island is observed along with more variability in the position of the North Atlantic storm tracks. The zone of peak winter storm frequency is drawn to the European mid-latitudes.

Bjerknes? hypothesis on the coldness during AD 1790?1820 revisited

The aim of this paper is to re-examine and quantify a hypothesis first put forward by J. Bjerknes concerning the anomalous coldness during the AD 1790–1820 period in western Europe. Central to Bjerknes’ hypothesis is an anomalous interaction between ocean and atmosphere studied here using an ocean-atmosphere coupled climate model of intermediate complexity. A reconstruction of the sea-level pressure pattern over the North Atlantic sector averaged over the period 1790–1820 is assimilated in this model, using a recently developed technique which has not been applied to paleoclimatic modelling before. This technique ensures that averaged over the simulation the reconstructed pattern is retrieved whilst leaving atmospheric and climatic variability to develop freely. In accordance with Bjerknes’ hypothesis, the model results show anomalous southward advection of polar waters into the northeastern North Atlantic in the winter season, lowering the sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) there with 0.3–1.0°C. This SST anomaly is persistent into the summer season. A decrease in western European winter surface air temperatures is found which can be related almost completely to advection of cold polar air. The decrease in summer surface air temperatures is related to a combination of low SSTs and anomalous atmospheric circulation. The modelled winter and summer temperatures in Europe compare favourably with reconstructed temperatures. Enhanced baroclinicity at the Atlantic seaboard and over Baffin Island is observed along with more variability in the position of the North Atlantic storm tracks. The zone of peak winter storm frequency is drawn to the European mid-latitudes.