European Macroseismic Scale Research Articles

Optimized seismic hazard and structural vulnerability model considering macroseismic intensity measures

Macroseismic intensity measures are fundamental quantitative indicators for evaluating the vulnerability and resilience of regional building clusters. The vulnerability model of building portfolios established can provide a noteworthy reference for the development of large-scale regional earthquake risk distributions. However, there are differences in the quantitative scales of the macroseismic intensity standards used in multiple regions. The positive effects of instrument intensity and probabilistic seismic hazard theory on the vulnerability assessment of regional buildings are rarely considered, resulting in significant differences in their assessment results. This paper comprehensively considers the impact of instrument intensity and seismic hazard models on traditional macroseismic intensity. An updated macroseismic intensity measure (UCMS-20) is proposed for evaluating regional buildings, which is combined with the latest version of China's seismic intensity standards. The actual seismic damage sample dataset (31,649 buildings) of four types of building clusters in three typical earthquakes in China (Wenchuan 2008, Yushu 2010, and Jiuzhaigou 2017) has been expanded and updated. Using the UCMS-20, the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS-98), the Modified Mercalli intensity (MMI), and the Medvedev, Sponheuer, and Karnik Scale (MSK-64), vulnerability assessments are conducted on the extended empirical structural seismic damage dataset, and an empirical disaster matrix model considering updating damage states is established. A nonlinear vulnerability prediction model considering updated macrointensity measures is proposed, and the optimized model is validated and compared against the developed multiscale empirical structure dataset. The multiscale vulnerability index calculation model is improved, and novel optimization curves, point clouds, and matrix probability risk models are established, considering the expansion of empirical structural vulnerability databases.

Empirical seismic fragility of masonry buildings in historical centres accounting for structural interventions

Fragility models are widely employed to forecast seismic damage in built environments. However, the actual conditions of buildings, depending on their construction systems and transformations, are crucial for model reliability, especially in historical centres.In this paper, an empirical fragility model for residential masonry buildings from data collected within 19 historical centres struck by the 2016 Central Italy earthquake is proposed. The dataset includes both traditional unreinforced and hybrid buildings, where reinforced concrete elements were applied in the 1980s according to seismic reinforcement prescriptions for existing structures.This study acknowledges the impact of such structural modifications on the seismic performance of buildings, which can alter their vulnerability classification either improving or worsening it. The intensity measure for the fragility functions is the peak ground acceleration obtained from actual records through interpolation for each centre. Damage data and vulnerability assessment of 2134 traditional and hybrid structural units are conducted in the framework of the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS-98). The fragility functions are plotted for both structural types and EMS-98 vulnerability classes, also considering the contribution of structural interventions, and then compared to literature empirical models. Hybrid buildings achieve a behaviour similar to traditional buildings when floors are strengthened but walls are not. However, when both masonry walls and floors are strengthened, their performance significantly improved, approaching that of modern clay block buildings with rigid floors. Compared to literature models, the proposed one showed good compatibility for the most vulnerable buildings, whereas less vulnerable ones appeared even stronger thanks to interventions.

Seismic Performances of Masonry Educational Buildings during the 2023 Türkiye (Kahramanmaraş) Earthquakes

Huge losses of life and property occurred as a result of two independent catastrophic earthquakes on 6 February 2023 in the Eastern Anatolian Fault Zone, where no significant earthquake has occurred in approximately 500 years. The earthquakes, whose epicenters were in the Pazarcık and Elbistan districts of Kahramanmaraş province at 9 h intervals, had magnitudes of Mw = 7.7 and Mw = 7.6 and caused different levels of structural damage, especially in masonry-style structures in rural areas. In this study, the damage that occurred in masonry village schools, especially in rural areas, during these two earthquakes was evaluated in terms of the characteristics of the earthquake and within the scope of civil engineering, and the causes of the damage were discussed. The damage levels of the masonry schools examined were classified using the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS-98). Information about the Kahramanmaraş earthquakes was given and structural analyses were carried out for a widely used reference school building. The school building block was analytically modeled, and its seismic load-bearing capacities were predicted through pushover analysis in TREMURI software. The study also includes repair and strengthening recommendations for such structures.

Development of mechanics-based fragility curves for the Italian masonry school asset

This article presents the derivation of a fragility model for the Italian masonry school building asset, comprising 265 sets of fragility curves for as many building types, classified on the basis of few parameters: construction age, number of stories, plan area, and type of masonry (i.e. with regular or irregular pattern). The fragility assessment was carried out by means of parametric analyses, generating more than 7500 samples which were then analyzed through the mechanics-based procedure Vulnus. Sample fragilities were then linearly combined to obtain fragility curves consistent with the adopted taxonomy based on few parameters. A macroseismic–heuristic model from the literature was used to extend the fragility model to five damage states, according to the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS98). The proposed model was compared to empirical information in terms of observed damage on three existing schools and fragility curves recently derived by processing data of school damaged by the 2009 L’Aquila earthquake, showing a satisfactory agreement. In addition, a comparison with fragility sets for residential buildings was carried out. Both fragility models were developed with the same procedure, so as to point out differences between schools and ordinary buildings. Similar fragilities were observed for schools and residential buildings built before 1945, whereas for later periods, schools showed a higher fragility than the residential asset. Finally, seismic damage maps were developed at national scale showing the distribution of expected damage as a possible application of the derived model.

The Earthquake of 13 April 1850 near Ston, Croatia: Macroseismic Analyses

Abstract The earthquake that occurred near the city of Ston, Croatia, on 13 April 1850 is, together with the one from 1996, the strongest known event in the northwest part of the Dubrovnik epicentral area. This is the region with the highest seismic hazard in Croatia with a rich history of damaging earthquakes. Although listed in the relevant catalogs, this earthquake has never been addressed by a dedicated study. Herewith, we present analyses of a wealth of newly found material related to the damage and postearthquake actions of the authorities of the Province of Dalmatia, then a part of the Austrian Empire. We were able to estimate intensity at five localities, with a further six where the data were sufficient only to constrain the minimum intensity value. By far, most of the data refer to Ston and Dubrovnik. Intensity data points were inverted for the source parameters by two different methods, each of which yielded similar results. The focus is macroseismically located about 7 km east-southeast from Ston, at a depth of 9 km. Estimated epicentral intensity of 8.2 on the European macroseismic scale is equivalent to macroseismic local magnitude MmL=6.0 or the moment magnitude Mmw=5.9. The location of focus and the epicentral intensity are practically identical to those of the Ston–Slano earthquake of 1996. This is why we propose that these two earthquakes share the same composite seismogenic source consisting of a set of imbricated mostly reverse faults related to the basal thrust of the Dalmatian tectonic unit. The reliable location and quantification of the 1850 earthquake should contribute to a better understanding of the active dynamics of the set of large seismogenic faults in the Dubrovnik epicentral area.

Structural Failures of Adobe Buildings during the February 2023 Kahramanmaraş (Türkiye) Earthquakes

Türkiye experienced great destruction during the Kahramanmaraş earthquake couple which occurred as Pazarcık (Mw = 7.7) and Elbistan (Mw = 7.6) on 6 February 2023. The weak structural characteristics and the magnitude of the earthquakes caused more than 50,000 casualties. Significant damage occurred in both urban and rural building stock in 11 different provinces that were primarily affected by the earthquakes. The dominant building stock is masonry structures in the rural areas of the earthquake region. Structural damages at various levels have occurred in adobe masonry structures built using local labours and resources without any engineering service. The main purpose of this study is to examine the failure and collapse mechanisms of adobe structures after Kahramanmaraş earthquakes in detail. First of all, information about both earthquakes was given. The earthquake intensity for all provinces was obtained by using the peak ground acceleration-intensity relation suggested for Türkiye, taking into account the measured PGAs in earthquakes. The observed structural damages were evaluated in terms of earthquake and civil engineering in adobe structures. Damage classification was conducted using European Macro-Seismic Scale (EMS-98) for a total of 100 adobe buildings. Of these structures, 25% were destroyed, 49% were heavily damaged, 15% were damaged moderately, and 11% were damaged slightly. In addition, the rules regarding adobe structures were compared considering the last two earthquake design codes used in Türkiye. In the study, suggestions were also presented to prevent structural damage in the adobe buildings in the earthquake region. Low strength of adobe material, usage of heavy earthen roofs, failure to comply with earthquake-resistant building design principles, and insufficient support of load-bearing walls are the main causes of damage.

Macro-Seismic Assessment for Residential Buildings Constructed in the Soviet Union Era in Almaty, Kazakhstan

Southern and southeastern Kazakhstan is a region of intraplate seismicity characterized by several destructive earthquakes. Almaty, the largest metropolis in this region, has many structures with different construction materials and seismic-resistant systems. Among them, residential buildings constructed in the Soviet Union era (before the 1990s) may possess low seismic resisting capacities due to limited seismic design and detailing provisions. Therefore, it is essential to assess seismic risks for these buildings. This paper collected information from a government agency (i.e., KazNIISA), including construction materials, lateral force-resisting systems, and structural ductility capacities for residential buildings constructed in this era. These buildings were then categorized in terms of their seismic vulnerabilities following the European Macro-seismic Scale (EMS-98). Vulnerability curves and probability of damages were developed under different earthquake intensities and peak ground accelerations. The likelihood of varying levels of damage was established for the design basis and maximum considered earthquakes in the Almaty region. It was found that unreinforced masonry and wood buildings tend to be very heavily damaged and even collapse under the maximum considered earthquake. The reinforced and precast concrete buildings have a high probability of heavy to very heavy damage, which may require further analytical assessment since the structure at this damage level will undergo a significant nonlinear response and has a high uncertainty in the seismic performance.

A Study on the Determination of Damage Levels in Reinforced Concrete Structures during the Kahramanmaraş Earthquake on February 06, 2023

Planning for settlement and urban redevelopment following disastrous earthquakes depends on the early detection and control of structural damage. The first damage assessment to be made immediately after the earthquake should be done as practically and quickly as possible. Within the scope of the study, the general causes of damage to the reinforced-concrete buildings in the region affected by the Kahramanmaraş earthquake couple dated 06 February 2023, which can be called the disaster of the century for Türkiye, and the first damage assessments were made using the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS-98) for 30 different reinforced concrete structures. This method gives six different building examples for each of the five different damage levels. Considering the buildings used in damage level, information is given about the causes and consequences of the damage. In general, it is the main cause of insufficient reinforced concrete frame damage as well as the effects of structural negativities such as soft storey, short columns, etc.

Empirical fragility curves for macro-elements and single mechanisms of churches damaged during the 2016-2017 Central Italy seismic sequence

The churches represent the most widespread building typology within the monumental masonry heritage present in the Italian territory. A special attention needs to be paid to the assessment of the vulnerability of these structures because of the particular architectural features (slender walls with large openings, wide halls and huge vaults, large façades, etc…). This paper presents several statistical analyses carried out on a wide database that collects damage information and structural characteristics of a large sample of masonry churches (2884) inspected after the 2016-2017 Central Italy seismic sequence. The collected information is used for developing empirical fragility curves starting from the damage probability matrices (DPMs) for discrete intervals of PGA (peak ground acceleration), with reference to the following three damage estimates: i) the global damage referred to the whole church, ii) the damage referred to single macro-elements, and iii) the damage referred to single mechanisms. The fragility functions are determined via the maximum likelihood estimation method and adopt a lognormal cumulative function to define the exceedance probabilities for the five damage levels provided by the European macro-seismic (EMS) scale. The fragility curves related to the three damage estimates are compared to each other to identify the weight of specific macro-elements and mechanisms in determining the global damage level and eventually to point out proper and specific interventions to reduce the vulnerability of the whole church.

Empirical fragility curves for masonry buildings struck by the 2016 Central Italy earthquake

The prevention of seismic risk at urban scale can be pursued through the estimate of the probability to reach or exceed a certain damage grade given the seismic input. In this framework, seismic fragility curves are nowadays of large interest as they express this probability in a synthetic way, also extended to large-scale applications. Real damage data are crucial in making more reliable predictions of damage occurrence, although they can be influenced by a proper definition of the structural types and the completeness of observations. The paper shows the empirical fragility curves obtained for a sample of 2263 masonry buildings located within 19 historical centers struck by the 2016 Central Italy earthquake. The damage grade was evaluated according to the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS-98), also considering undamaged buildings, at the end of the sequence that spanned between August and October. The buildings largely underwent several repairs and strengthening actions with reinforced concrete elements starting from the 1980s. The systematization of the structural features led to a taxonomy for strengthened and original buildings, which, based on the observed damage patterns, was matched to the EMS-98 vulnerability classification. The sample ranges from class A (worst behavior) to D (best behavior). Class A was typically assigned to original buildings (without interventions) or ill-advisedly tampered ones, i.e., those in which interventions had an unfavorable contribution to their seismic behavior. Class D described buildings with properly designed strengthening interventions, classes B and C intermediate situations. Fragility curves were obtained per each vulnerability class, as a function of the highest peak ground acceleration (PGA) observed in the sequence from ShakeMaps. The results were then compared to other empirical fragility models.

Influence of structural-geometric features on seismic vulnerability of masonry buildings based on post-earthquake damage data

In this study, seismic vulnerability of Italian masonry buildings is analyzed taking advantage of the post-earthquake damage data recently released by the Italian Department of Civil Protection through the online platform Da.D.O. (Dolce et al. 2019).The main purpose of the study is to describe the damage attitude of several building's typologies, univocally defined by means of structural and geometrical features. To this aim, a time-consuming data processing has been performed to obtain a more effective taxonomy, based on masonry quality layout, type of horizontal structure, presence/absence of retrofit interventions, construction age and number of storeys.Moreover, to avoid bias in vulnerability analysis, the most reliable datasets has been detected through a comprehensive data analysis, also integrating the original database with census data. Then, damage analysis has been done, converting the damage observed on vertical structures in 5+1 damage levels of the whole building according to the European Macroseismic Scale classification. ShakeMaps in terms of peak parameters released by National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology are also considered to characterize ground motion shaking at each building's location. Lastly, a lognormal statistical model has been used to derive vulnerability curves for considered typologies, fully investigating the influence of each building's feature on damage attitude.

Fragility curves derivation for masonry buildings damaged after 2009 L'Aquila earthquake accounting for the effect of construction age

The aim of this study is the analysis of seismic fragility of residential masonry buildings, with particular emphasis to the evolution of seismic behaviour over the years. To this purpose, a detailed and comprehensive taxonomy has been established, considering a restricted selection of building's features, avoiding the ineffective fragmentation of the database. The fragility assessment has been performed based on the data collected after the L'Aquila 2009 earthquake and made available by the Italian Department of Civil Protection through the online platform Da.D.O. (Database of Observed Damage). The database has undergone a refinement process to guarantee the completeness of the information, avoiding possible bias in the subsequent fitting procedure for fragility analysis. Thus, PGA (peak ground acceleration) from the ShakeMap has been used for ground motion characterization and 5 + 1 damage levels defined according to the European Macroseismic Scale have been considered for damage classification. Different regression models have been adopted to determine the parameters of lognormal fragility curves, measuring their goodness of fit with the observed damage probability matrices.Starting from the unconstrained model, further regression constraints (i.e., a common value for logarithmic standard deviation and the respect of the hierarchy of median PGA with the construction age) have been introduced, thus leading to the definition of the constrained model. The benefits in the introduction of further regression constraints are counterposed to the effectiveness of constrained curves to model observational data through the comparison of the goodness of fit between the unconstrained and constrained models.

Empirical resilience and vulnerability model of regional group structure considering optimized macroseismic intensity measure

An optimized macroseismic intensity index, which integrates the traditional macroseismic intensity scale and the instrument intensity evaluation model, is proposed to evaluate regional buildings’ empirical resilience and vulnerability. The traditional failure probability of the group structure is modified and improved. The parameters and probability indexes used to assess the resilience and vulnerability of group structure in urban and rural areas are innovatively proposed. The empirical group structure seismic loss data from the actual field investigation of the Jiuzhaigou earthquake in Sichuan Province, China, on August 8, 2017, were statistically analysed, the vulnerability of the sample data was assessed by using the optimized Chinese seismic intensity scale (OCSIS-20), European Macroseismic Scale (EMS-98) and the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI), and the assessment and comparison model of multidimensional modal resilience and probability index was established. To improve the rationality and accuracy of typical building resilience in the macrointensity quantification region, a new quantitative model of resilience and vulnerability based on optimizing the macrointensity index and updating the lognormal distribution is proposed, and the group structure resilience comparison models for typical macrointensity standard evaluation are established. The structural vulnerability database of the Jiuzhaigou earthquake is utilized to verify the rationality of the innovative model. Ultimately, field loss inspection and damage mechanism analysis are conducted based on the characteristics of regional structural seismic resilience and the actual vulnerability of the Jiuzhaigou earthquake.

Gempa Nusantara: A Database of 7380 Macroseismic Observations for 1200 Historical Earthquakes in Indonesia from 1546 to 1950

ABSTRACT We present a new database called Gempa Nusantara, which is a collection of 7380 macroseismic observations for 1200 historical earthquakes in Indonesia between 1546 and 1950 C.E. using the European Macroseismic Scale (1998). Scrutinizing preserved original, first-hand, private, and official documentation from the colonial period in Indonesia, we could examine the completeness of this written record based on the gradual expansion of European influence in the Indonesian Archipelago. As the largest database of uniformly assessed macroseismic intensities ever assembled for Indonesia, our database can correct errors and fill gaps in other contemporary studies of historical Indonesian earthquakes, as well as paleoseismic studies such as the coral paleogeodetic record from Sumatra. Remarkably, given the presence of several major active faults, conclusive evidence of coseismic surface ruptures during the colonial period was limited to just two events in 1909 and 1933. Our reliance on original materials also allowed us to document extreme coseismic ground failure in Sumatra in 1936 with striking similarities to those observed on Sulawesi in 2018. From the perspective of seismic hazard in a rapidly urbanizing nation, we show that the frequencies of observed intensities over the duration of our database correspond with modern seismic hazard curves from recent publications by other authors for 12 Indonesian cities, including Jakarta, with some notable exceptions such as Ambon and Yogyakarta. In summary, our work on Gempa Nusantara demonstrates how a carefully vetted and well-documented historical record not only compliments studies of seismic hazard but is also itself an important standalone tool for the study of earthquake hazards in Indonesia.

Typological fragility curves for RC buildings: influence of damage index and building sample selection

The recent earthquakes occurred in the last years in Italy registered a great number of casualties and large economic losses. In this perspective, the effective seismic risk assessment has become crucial for the Government mitigation policies that have to allocate the limited economic sources for the risk reduction.In this paper, data collected after the 2012 Emilia and the 2009 L’Aquila, Italy, earthquakes were used to derive novel fragility curves for RC frame buildings classes. Compared to previous studies, different aspects affecting the fragility curves parameters were investigated. First of all, data are completed accounting for the presence of undamaged buildings that are generally uninspected after the seismic events, considering alternative criteria to complete the database. Then, the influence of the building damage index definition was considered by selecting four damage indices available in the literature that allow converting the damage data collected with the post-earthquake form into one of the five damage states, according to the European macroseismic scale. Separate sets of fragility curves, as a function of peak ground acceleration, were developed for the building stock of the two regions. The results reveal that the database correction with the uninspected buildings is relevant to avoid the overestimation of the exceedance probability, especially at lower peak ground acceleration values, resulting in less steep curves. Then, the building damage indices accounting for the damage of both structural and non-structural elements led to a higher exceedance probability with respect to damage indices based on damage of only structural elements, especially for the lower damage states.

A study on the determination of damage levels in reinforced concrete structures for different earthquakes

It is important for spatial planning and urban transformation to determine and manage all the information about the buildings damaged after the earthquake. In this respect, the first damage assessments should be made as quickly and practically as possible, especially immediately after the earthquake. Within the scope of this study, the reinforced concrete structure damage classification given in the European Macro-Seismic Scale (EMS) was used, taking into account five different earthquakes in Turkey. Sample buildings were identified for five different degrees of damage foreseen in the EMS. In addition to the information about these earthquakes, seismic parameters were obtained for the earthquake epicenters. The peak ground acceleration values measured for all earthquakes considered in the study were compared with the currently recommended peak acceleration values.

Fragility Curves of Existing RC Buildings Accounting for Bidirectional Ground Motion

In recent decades, the considerable number of worldwide earthquakes caused considerable damage and several building collapses, underlining the high vulnerability of the existing buildings designed without seismic provisions. In this regard, this work analyses the seismic performance of a reinforced concrete building designed without any seismic criteria, characterized by a seismically-stronger and a seismically-weaker direction, such as several existing reinforced concrete-framed structures designed for vertical load only. The case study building was modelled in OpenSees considering a non-linear three-dimensional model, also accounting for the contribution of joint panel deformability on the global behavior. Thirty bidirectional ground motions have been applied to the structure with the highest component alternatively directed along the two principal building directions. Time-history analyses have been performed for eight increasing hazard levels with the aim of evaluating the influence of bidirectional ground motion on structural response and estimating the seismic vulnerability of the building. The seismic performance of the structures are provided in terms of fragility curves for the two principal directions of the building and for different damage states defined according to the European Macroseismic Scale.

INSAR-BASED DETECTION AND MAPPING OF SEISMICALLY INDUCED GROUND SURFACE DISPLACEMENT AND DAMAGE IN PAMPANGA, PHILIPPINES

On April 22, 2019, an earthquake with a magnitude MW 6.1 struck the municipality of Castillejos in Zambales, the Philippines, and severely affected the province of Pampanga, which caused damage to commercial and residential structures reaching over 40 victims. This paper presents an approach for creating a pixel-based proxy damage assessment and displacement field maps to delineate the extent of ground surface displacements due to an earthquake. Specifically, this paper explored two change detection methods: the interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) technique and the coherence difference analysis method, using an open-source remote sensing software package and free SAR image data acquired by Sentinel-1 missions. Ground truth data were collected to substantiate the findings of the generated maps after the earthquake. Out of 7 surveyed damaged structures that were included in the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) of the Philippines Situational Report, four damaged structures were successfully targeted using the proxy damage assessment map that had a coherence difference value ranging from 0.7-0.9 and damage grades of 3-5 based on the European Macroseismic Scale 1998 (EMS-98) damage classification system. This study confirms that change detection methods applied to C-band Sentinel-1 SAR data are valuable for mapping damaged areas and estimating ground surface displacements toward better hazard mitigation and disaster response.

Comparison of vulnerabilities in typical bridges using macroseismic intensity scales

The macroseismic intensity scale in different regions is extensively assessed in the vulnerability assessment of building structures and is rarely used to quantify the damage characteristics of group bridges. To more accurately examine the differences in the seismic vulnerability of typical bridges in an earthquake-damaged region under multiple intensity scales, this study analyses the vulnerability of 1516 girder bridges and 612 arch bridges affected by the Wenchuan earthquake, which occurred on May 12, 2008, in China, by using the European Macroseismic scale, Medvedev, Sponheuer, and Karnik scale, and the Chinese Seismic Intensity scale based on the principle of nonlinear regression and probability models. The vulnerability matrices, functions, and curves of the update models to compare girder bridges and arch bridges were obtained based on the number of samples and their failure ratio. When combined with the new cumulative exceeding probability model, curves of the exceeding probability model of girder bridges and arch bridges under the different intensity scales were obtained and compared. A parameter matrix model is proposed to evaluate and predict the seismic vulnerability of regional bridges. Combined with empirical data on the seismic damage caused to the girder bridges and arch bridges in the earthquake, their vulnerability matrices, curves, and point cloud models were obtained under a multi-intensity scale of assessment for a comparative analysis. The conclusions of this study can be used for an accurate assessment of the vulnerability of typical bridges in the future.

Seismic vulnerability assessment of minor Italian urban centres: development of urban fragility curves

This paper presents a novel hybrid-based methodology devoted to develop urban fragility curves and damage probability matrices to predict likelihood seismic damage scenarios for small and medium Italian urban centres, considering URM buildings only. The concept of urban fragility curve consists of a single curve mean-representative of the seismic fragility of an entire area accounting for the combinations of building classes and their percentage, then they differ from those typological. The methodology has been developed with reference to Rocca di Mezzo, a small Italian urban centre located in the central Apennine area, Italy. Based on CarTiS inventory, building classes have been firstly recognized and urban fragility curves, representative for damage scenarios at Ultimate Limit State, developed. To predict damage scenarios from low to high-intensity earthquakes, an approach to define multi-damage urban fragility curves and damage probability matrices has been also presented. To this aim, a damage scale suffered by building classes has been defined by converting the final outcomes of the AeDES form (used in Italy for post-earthquake surveys) in the damage levels provided by the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS98). Data coming from urban fragility curves have been compared with the actual damage scenario recorded in Rocca di Mezzo after the 2009 L’Aquila’s earthquake, in terms of both peak-ground acceleration and Mecalli-Cancani-Sieberg scale. The achieved results showed a good accordance between theoretical predictions and actual damage scenarios, coherent also with the damage scenarios occurred in other Italian historical centres hit by severe earthquakes over the years. Thus, the methodology can provide a first important indicator to support the development of emergently plans devoted to identify priority of interventions in such areas particularly vulnerable with respect to others.