European Leagues Research Articles

Dominance criteria on grids for measuring competitive balance in sports leagues

The paper proposes a dominance criterion that assesses whether a seasonal outcome of a sports league is more balanced than another. This criterion is based on a novel third-order stochastic dominance defined on finite sets of evenly spaced seasonal points (seasonal grids), called downward seasonal balance (DSB). The DSB criterion makes the same assessments as the well-known Lorenz criterion. However, the converse is not true: The DSB criterion makes assessments even in cases where the Lorenz criterion cannot. The former is then less incomplete than the latter. The assessments of the DSB criterion reflect the unanimity of a class of competitive balance indices. A seasonal outcome is more balanced than another according to the DSB criterion if and only if every index of the class agrees. Such a class is axiomatically characterized so that the indices place at least as much emphasis on the balance between leading competitors as on the balance occurring among the nonleading competitors. An empirical application provides comparisons of seasonal outcomes of the five most competitive soccer leagues in Europe from 2014–2015 to 2018–2019.

Domestic League Competitive Balance and UEFA Performance

Abstract: This paper investigates the relationship between European football league competitive balance and the performance of that league’s participants in UEFA competitions. The evidence suggests that competitive balance measured using performance points fits the performance coefficients of countries participating in the Champions League and Europa League and that a reciprocal model fits the data best. The evidence suggests that marginal improvements in competitive balance can lead to increase of one-third a win for a league’s participants in the Champions League. The increased rewards for UEFA success suggest policies that promote competitive balance have both public and private benefits for clubs.

The Dirty League: English Premier League Provides Higher Incentives for Fouling as Compared to Other European Soccer Leagues.

Fouling in soccer has been studied from an ethical standpoint as a measure of aggression. However, there is limited research related to fouling for performance. The present study investigated fouling as a factor influencing performance in European soccer leagues. Out of possession fouls (FPGNorm), yellow cards (YCFNorm), and their ratio (YCPFPG) were used as predictors of points (Pts) and goals conceded (GA) at the end of the season using three separate linear regression models. Furthermore, 5-fold cross-validation was used to measure out sample reliability. All the models significantly predicted GA and Pts (p < 0.001). Models predicting GA showed higher reliability than models predicting points. Cross validation (CV) results suggested that FPGNorm and YCPFPG models showed a small standard deviation (SD) in the R2 results whereas the results from YCFNorm were not reliable to high SD in the 5-fold CV results. In summary, FPGNorm and YCPFPG seem to predict success (low GA and high Pts) across European soccer leagues, with EPL showing the maximum effect. The findings of the current study and the methodology can be applied to an actual game analysis by coaches in multiple invasion sports. Normalizing for out of possession time is a crucial step for the time spent in particular phases of play, which has not been done in previous research while analyzing ‘key performance indices’ (KPIs). Normalization can successfully introduce domain-specific knowledge into predictors, which can be used in complex algorithms improving predictions and investigation of underlying mechanisms.

Offensive/Defensive Talent and Sporting Success in Football: Evidence From the Big Five European Leagues

Over the past decade, the sustained growth of the football business has been associated with clubs’ interest in investing in players’ talent, which has boosted both the transfer market and players’ salaries. However, players’ talent is heterogeneous, given that both defensive and offensive talent are required. Therefore, clubs have to decide on the optimal talent composition, taking into account the differences in the cost and the productivity of both talents. The article shows that, firstly, clubs’ talent composition (ratio between offensive and defensive talent) presents significant differences over time among the Big Five European leagues. Secondly, the talent composition is consistent with maximizing sporting performance (or profit maximization) in the case of Serie A, but not in the case of Bundesliga. Results for Premier League, LaLiga and Ligue 1, are not conclusive with a few exceptions associated with the top teams.

Red shirt color has no effect on winning in European Soccer: Reanalysis of Attrill et al. (2008) of the English premier league and six additional European leagues

Attrill et al. (2008) conducted a far-reaching study in elite English soccer demonstrating in archival research that from 1946 to 2003 seasons, teams wearing red uniforms were more likely to win championships than teams in other uniform colors, won more at home and had a higher average league position (relative to cross-city rivals). Their study was one of only very few that extended the color-in-context theory (Elliot & maier, 2007) to team, ball-oriented long-duration sports. The current investigation returns to the red superiority hypothesis in professional soccer due to weaknesses in the original evidence for this hypothesis. We conducted two studies testing the red superiority hypothesis in professional soccer. In Study 1a, we first reanalyzed the original data and tested the strength of evidence in favor of the red superiority hypothesis. We then updated the English premier league data (1992–2018) and tested uniform color effects on game outcomes. In Study 2, we attempted to broaden the scope of Study 1 and increase statistical power by testing the red superiority effect during the last 20 years of six major European Soccer leagues (NOS Portugal, German Bundesliga, Dutch Eredivisie, Spanish la Liga, French Ligue 1, and the Italian Serie A). All three tests challenge the validity of the original findings and fail to detect uniform color effects at home play in professional soccer. In light of the current findings and a growing body of research in the field we call into question overall color effects in this athletic context.

Acromioclavicular Joint Separation in UEFA Soccer Players: A Matched-Cohort Analysis of Return to Play and Player Performance From 1999 to 2018.

Background:Acromioclavicular joint (ACJ) separation injuries are uncommon in professional soccer players, threatening future performance and team contributions. Data regarding return to play (RTP) in professional soccer players after ACJ separation are limited.Purpose:To determine the rate, time to RTP, and player performance after ACJ separation in soccer players from the top 5 professional European leagues when compared with a retrospective, matched cohort of uninjured players.Study Design:Cohort study; Level of evidence, 3.Methods:Professional soccer players suffering ACJ separation injuries between 1999 and 2018 were identified and were matched to uninjured players (2 controls to 1 injured player) by position, height, age, season year, and length of time played. Information on date of injury, timing to RTP, and player performance metrics (minutes played, games played, goals scored, assists made, and points per game) were collected from transfermarkt.co.uk, uefa.com, fifa.com, official team websites, public injury reports, and press releases. Change in performance metrics for the 4 seasons after the season of injury were based on metrics 1 season before injury. Univariate comparisons were performed using independent 2-group t tests and Wilcoxon rank-sum tests when normality of distributions was violated.Results:A total 59 soccer players with ACJ separation injuries were identified. Mean age at injury was 24.6 ± 5.3 years. Of these, 81% of the players returned to play, with 69% returning within postinjury season 1. Mean time to RTP was 49.8 ± 24.3 days (5.9 ± 4.1 games). Two players suffered recurrent ACJ separation injuries in their professional soccer careers. There were no significant differences between athletes who sustained ACJ injuries versus control athletes in the number of games played, minutes per game per season, goals scored, assists, or points in the 4 seasons after injury. Defenders played fewer minutes and recorded fewer assists during postinjury season 1 when compared with control athletes.Conclusion:Of the 59 elite soccer players who sustained ACJ separation injuries during the study period, 81% returned to elite competition. Performance metrics were similar to preinjury levels and matched, uninjured control players.

Downtrends in Offside Offenses Among 'The Big Five' European Football Leagues.

This study examined the evolution of offside offenses and pass performance across a 10-season period in the top five European soccer leagues. Match performance observations (n = 18 259) were analysed for emergent trends. Two-way ANOVA analyses revealed significant league and seasonal differences among the five leagues (medium effect size). The total offside offenses committed during a match experienced a clear decline during the 10 seasons. In contrast, moderate increases were evident for all passing differential variables. Offside offenses per match were higher in the German Bundesliga and Spanish La Liga than in the English Premier League and France Ligue 1. However, the English Premier League had the greatest value in the touch differential, pass differential, successful pass differential, and key pass differential among all leagues. It is important to note that the number of offside offenses fell after the implementation of VAR.

A European mind? Europeanisation of football fan discussions in online message boards

Across Europe, national professional football leagues have seen increasing numbers of players from other EU states, while the Champions League and the Europa League have become a focal point for many teams. This article seeks to investigate how far this Europeanisation on the organisational level of football is reflected in identities and discourses of fans. We developed a framework to analyse the Europeanisation of identities among football fans. In the empirical part, we conducted a qualitative content analysis of fan discussions on publicly available message boards among fans of four first league teams in England and Austria. Our empirical findings indicate that fans’ identities are to some extent Europeanised, albeit in very different ways and to varying degrees. The participation in European club competitions and the Europeanisation of player markets seem to shape fan perceptions in that respect.

How Positional Constraints Affect Footedness in Football: A Notational Analysis of Five Leagues in Europe

In elite-level soccer, the ability to take shots with both limbs from different positions in the pitch may be key to success. This research aimed to: 1) analyze footedness of elite-football players in European leagues during shooting by computing frequency of right- and left-foot use and accuracy; and 2) investigate whether an athlete’s distance from the target (goal, penalty, and outside penalty area) and pitch zone (center, left, or right from the goal) can constrain foot selection during shooting. We analyzed 1826 games from the 2017/18 season, divided between: Spanish LaLiga (380 matches); Italian Serie A (380 matches); English Premier League (380 matches); German Bundesliga (306 matches); and French Ligue 1 (380 matches). Results revealed asymmetrical proportions of foot selection, favoring the preferred foot for right- and left-footed athletes. Frequency of preferred foot selection increased as a function of distance from the target (i.e., the farther the athlete, higher the percentage of preferred foot selection). Shots taken from the left side were more often performed with the right foot and vice-versa, for both left- and right-footed athletes. Interestingly, asymmetries were observed only in foot selection, but not in performance, as success rate did not vary between limbs in any position.

Football: Discovering elapsing-time bias in the science of success

One of the fundamental topics in sports analytics is the science of success, i.e., the study of the correlation between players’ performances and their success. This is a very challenging task especially in the case of team sports, among which football is a prominent example. This paper is concerned with uncovering a dangerous bias that is present in most of the approaches proposed in the literature that apply statistical techniques or machine learning models to study the correlation between team performances and match outcome. In particular, we find out that players’ behavior on a time interval is more and more correlated with the match outcome as the 90 minutes elapse. As an extreme example, we show that we can predict the output of a match with high confidence simply by looking at the last 15 minutes of the game. We call this effect elapsing-time bias. We conduct a quantitative analysis that proves the existence of this phenomenon and shows its consequences. We then propose a novel way to address the problem. Namely, we design a new machine learning task that is not affected by elapsing-time bias. All the experiments are conducted on a large corpus of finely annotated football matches of European leagues.

A novel method for prediction of EuroLeague game results using hybrid feature extraction and machine learning techniques

Basketball competitions are among the most watched sports activities in the world. With the developing technology, statistics of the games and players of basketball can be stored more easily, so artificial intelligence techniques such as machine learning can be used for decision making and prediction. While there are studies on American leagues and especially the NBA on the predictions of the results of basketball competitions, the number of studies on European leagues in this regard is insufficient. In this study, for the first time in the literature, EuroLeague matches have been evaluated with the hybrid of Four Factors and DefenseOfense models together and then machine learning methods have been applied for the prediction of game results. Accordingly, the matches played between the seasons of 2012–2013 and 2016–2017 have been used as 5 different data sets. New features have been extracted using with Four Factors and DefenseOfense models together and 8 different feature models have been obtained. Then, machine learning methods such as kNN, Logistic Regression, Multilayer Perceptron, Naive Bayes, j48 and Voting have been used and the results have been discussed. Finally, 98.90% prediction success has been achieved with the Multilayer Perceptron method by using Dataset 5 and Model 6.

Return-to-Play Times and Player Performance After Medial Collateral Ligament Injury in Elite-Level European Soccer Players.

Background:Participation in elite-level soccer predisposes athletes to injuries of the medial collateral ligament (MCL), resulting in variable durations of time lost from sport.Purpose:To (1) determine the rate of return to play (RTP) and timing after MCL injuries, (2) investigate MCL reinjury incidence after RTP, and (3) evaluate the long-term effects of MCL injury on future performance.Study Design:Descriptive epidemiology study.Methods:Using publicly available records, we identified athletes who had sustained MCL injury between 2000 and 2016 across the 5 major European soccer leagues (English Premier League, Bundesliga, La Liga, Ligue 1, and Serie A). Injured athletes were matched to controls using demographic characteristics and performance metrics from the season before injury. We recorded injury severity, RTP rate, reinjury incidence, player characteristics associated with RTP within 2 seasons of injury, player availability, field time, and performance metrics during the 4 seasons after injury.Results:A total of 59 athletes sustained 61 MCL injuries, with 86% (51/59) of injuries classified as moderate to severe and surgical intervention performed in 14% (8/59) of athletes. After injury, athletes missed a median of 33 days (range, 3-259 days) and 4 games (range, 1-30 games). Overall, 71% (42/59) of athletes returned successfully at the same level, with multivariable regression demonstrating no athlete characteristic predictive of RTP. MCL reinjury was reported in 3% (2/59) of athletes. Midfielders demonstrated decreased field time after RTP when compared with controls (P < .05). No significant differences in player performance for any position were identified out to 4 seasons after injury. Injured athletes had a significantly higher rate of long-term retention (P < .001).Conclusion:MCL injuries resulted in a median loss of 33 days in elite European soccer athletes, with the majority of injuries treated nonoperatively. RTP remained high, and few athletes experienced reinjury. While midfielders demonstrated a significant decrease in field time after RTP, player performance and long-term retention were not compromised. Future studies are warranted to better understand athlete-specific and external variables predictive of MCL injury and reinjury, while evaluating treatment and rehabilitation protocols to minimize time lost and to optimize athlete safety and health.

Adductor Muscle Injuries in UEFA Soccer Athletes: A Matched-Cohort Analysis of Injury Rate, Return to Play, and Player Performance From 2000 to 2015.

Background:The effects of adductor muscle injury on performance in soccer athletes are unknown.Purpose:To (1) determine the rate and time to return to play (RTP) after adductor muscle injury, (2) investigate the rate of reinjury after RTP, and (3) investigate any long-term effects of injury on elite soccer player performance.Study Design:Cohort study; Level of evidence, 3.Methods:Using publicly available records, athletes sustaining adductor muscle injury were identified across the 5 major European soccer leagues (English Premier League, Bundesliga, La Liga, Ligue 1, and Serie A) between 2000 and 2015. Injured athletes were matched to controls by demographic characteristics and performance metrics from 1 season before the index timepoint. Investigations included the rate of RTP, reinjuries, player characteristics associated with RTP within 2 seasons, player availability, field time, and performance metrics during the 4 seasons after injury.Results:A total of 671 players with adductor muscle injury were included. Based on time to RTP, 86% of injuries were mild to moderate (4-28 days missed), and 4% required surgical intervention. Players with adductor muscle injury were absent for a median of 22 days (range, 1-700 days) and 4 games (range, 1-76 games). A total of 521 (78%) players returned at the same level, with no demographic or clinical characteristics associated with RTP on the multivariable regression. Of those returning to play, 143 (21%) experienced adductor reinjury. After RTP, defenders demonstrated decreased field time compared with controls (P < .05). As compared with controls, defenders and midfielders scored more points and goals per game during the season of the injury (P < .01), while attackers recorded more goals and assists per game the season after injury (P < .05).Conclusion:Only 3 in 4 players (78%) returned to participate in an official match, and the reinjury rate was high (21%). After RTP, defenders demonstrated decreased field time versus controls. On the other hand, defenders and midfielders recorded more points and goals per game, while attackers recorded more goals and assists per game versus controls. Although the multivariable analysis results did not identify player characteristics associated with RTP, there was a position-dependent association on player performance after RTP.

Traumatic Leg Fractures in UEFA Football Athletes: A Matched-Cohort Analysis of Return to Play, Reinjury, Player Retention, and Performance Outcomes.

Background:The average professional soccer team experiences 1 to 2 traumatic leg fractures per season, with unknown effects on player performance.Purpose:To (1) determine the rate and time to return to play (RTP) following leg fracture, (2) investigate the rate of reinjury following RTP, and (3) investigate long-term effects that lower extremity (LE) fracture may have on elite soccer player performance.Study Design:Cohort study; Level of evidence, 3.Methods:Using publicly available records, we identified athletes sustaining a traumatic leg fracture across the 5 major European soccer leagues (English Premier League, Bundesliga, La Liga, Ligue 1, and Serie A) between 2000 and 2016. Athletes with leg fracture (femur, tibia, and/or fibula) were matched 1:2 to controls by demographic characteristics and performance metrics 1 season before the index timepoint. Investigations included the RTP rate, reinjury rate, player characteristics associated with RTP within 2 seasons, long-term player retention, performance metrics during the 4 following seasons, and subgroup analysis by player position.Results:A total of 112 players with LE fracture and 224 controls were identified. Players with LE fractures were absent for a mean of 157 days (range, 24-601 days) and 21 games (range, 2-68 games). The rate of RTP within 1 season was 80%, with 4% experiencing subsequent refracture. Injured players remained active in the league at a higher rate than their uninjured counterparts. As compared with controls, injured athletes played 309 fewer total minutes (P < .05), scored 0.09 more assists per game (P < .01) 1 season after injury, and scored 0.12 more points per game 4 seasons after injury (P < .01). Defenders were most affected by an LE fracture, playing 5.24 fewer games (P < .05), 603 fewer total minutes (P < .01), and recording 0.19 more assists per 90 minutes of play as compared with controls 1 season after injury (P < .001). Attackers and midfielders demonstrated no significant difference in metrics after RTP when compared with controls.Conclusion:Most players sustaining an LE fracture returned to elite soccer at the same level after a significant loss of playing time, with a 4% rate of refracture. Player retention was higher for those sustaining an LE fracture versus uninjured controls. Overall, injured players did not experience a decline in performance after recovery from an LE fracture.

Competitive balance measures and the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis in European football

AbstractCompetitive balance is an important issue in professional sport in general and European football in particular. However, competitive balance is difficult to quantify because competitiveness is multi-dimensional and particular sports are distinctive. We aim to identify the most appropriate index for a holistic view of competitive balance in European football. We use data from eight domestic European football leagues over a time span of 60 years. The indices we consider are specifically designed to capture competitiveness at different levels of performance and in this way reflect the peculiarities of European football leagues. Our findings support the longstanding uncertainty of outcome hypothesis. A bivariate index that captures competitiveness in the top K places is shown to have the highest association with attendance. A seasonal index of champions’ domination is also found to have a large association with attendance. Finally, ranking mobility is found to have a slightly higher association with attendance than seasonal performance. These results imply that sports policy makers should use these indices to assess strategic decisions that may influence competitive balance.

Pass2vec: Analyzing soccer players’ passing style using deep learning

The aim of this research was to analyze the player’s pass style with enhanced accuracy using the deep learning technique. We proposed Pass2vec, a passing style descriptor that can characterize each player’s passing style by combining detailed information on passes. Pass data was extracted from the ball event data from five European football leagues in the 2017–2018 season, which was divided into training and test set. The information on location, length, and direction of passes was combined using Convolutional Autoencoder. As a result, pass vectors were generated for each player. We verified the method with the player retrieval task, which successfully retrieved 76.5% of all players in the top-20 with the descriptor and the result outperformed previous methods. Also, player similarity analysis confirmed the resemblance of players passes on three representative cases, showing the actual application and practical use of the method. The results prove that this novel method for characterizing player’s styles with improved accuracy will enable us to understand passing better for player training and recruitment.

Are Sports Betting Markets Semi-Strong Efficient? Evidence From the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract: This paper examines whether sports betting markets are semi-strong form efficient—i.e., whether new information is rapidly and completely incorporated into betting prices. We use news on ghost games in the top European football leagues due to the COVID-19 pandemic as a clean arrival of new public information. Because spectators are absent during ghost games, the home advantage is reduced, and we test whether this information is fully reflected in betting prices. Our results show that bookmakers and betting exchanges systematically overestimated a home team’s winning probability during the first period of the ghost games, which suggests that betting markets are, at least temporally, not semi-strong form efficient. Examining different leagues, we find that our main results are driven by the German Bundesliga, which was the first league to resume operations. We exploit a betting strategy that yields a positive net payoff over more than one month.

When New Talent Scores: The Impact of Human Capital and the Team Context on Newcomer Performance

Integrating the literatures on strategic human capital, newcomer socialization, and work teams we seek to close the gap between micro staffing research and macro research on strategic human capital. We thereby examine the unique and combined influences of newcomer human capital and the team’s environment (prior team performance and number of newcomers) on newcomer performance during different socialization contexts (which provided more vs. less time for newcomers and teams to mutually adjust). Examining large, multi-year data from the top five European professional football leagues, we found that individual human capital related positively to newcomer performance across socialization contexts while the relationships between the collective team environment and performance were dependent on the socialization context. Beyond the direct relationships, our results also showed that human capital is less positively related to newcomer performance when newcomers join higher performing teams. These findings extend our understanding of the complex relationships between individual human capital and the team’s socialization environment on newcomer performance; relationships that are sensitive to the socialization context.

Globalization of Sports on the Example Of The Five Most Popular European Football Leagues with an Emphasis on Premiership - Geographical Overview

Globalization has had and still has a comprehensive effect on all aspects of human life, including the part related to sports and recreation. Through the spread of information and communication technologies, especially new channels of information dissemination (such as social networks), but also the process of internationalization, liberalization, and modernization - it has enabled the availability of sports competitions, and the general presence of sports in all parts of the world. This is especially true of football as one of the most popular sports. This paper will try to provide a geographical and global framework for football change based on specific economic and financial data related to sponsors, branding, etc., through a case study of the English Premiership (also known as Premier League) compared to other football leagues in Europe (German Bundesliga, Spanish La Liga, Italian Serie A and French Ligue 1, the so-called Big Five). The paper presents three hypotheses to which the research of available literature and statistical data will try to answer. Through all the above mentioned, the research aims to determine whether and to what extent football has become a global sport by going beyond national frameworks and to what extent it has transformed itself in these modern and global frameworks.

COMPETITIVE BALANCE IN THE AZERBAIJAN PREMIER LEAGUE AZERBAIJAN STATE ACADEMY OF PHYSICAL EDUCATION AND SPORT

In terms of numbers of both spectators and players, football – or soccer as it is called mainly in North America – is probably one of the most popular sport games around the world. According to some figures of the international governing body, the Federation Internationale de Football Association (FIFA), there are nearly 250 million football players and 1,3 billion fans interested in football all around the world in the 21st century [3]. Parts of its global success might come from the fact that football can be played almost everywhere from professional football pitches to streets, schools, parks, and playgrounds. Moreover, it follows simple rules and requires only modest equipment. Likewise, many people in Azerbaijan are interested in football. The Association of Football Federations of Azerbaijan (AFFA) is the governing body of football and Azerbaijan has a national football championship, called Azerbaijan Premier League. Since 2016, eight clubs are competing in the league with Qarabag FK being the dominating team of the league during the last decade [11].&#x0D; In general, such dominance might be a problem for spectators and fans. At the same time, it might hinder the development of other clubs in the country. Remarkably in this regard, the performance in UEFA’s international club competitions, i.e. the UEFA Champions League and Europa League, of all clubs beyond Qarabag FK is rather poor yet.&#x0D; This thesis will deal with the situation of competitive balance (CB) and its development over time in the Azerbaijan Premier League. Moreover, it will explore whether and to what extent a lack of balance might (at least to some extent) be one reason for the lack of success in the international club competitions. As such, the thesis intends to answer two research questions:&#x0D; 1) What is the situation as well as the development of CB over time in the Azerbaijan Premier League?&#x0D; 2) Is dominance in the Azerbaijan Premier League (at least to some extent) a problem for clubs playing internationally?