European Heat Wave Research Articles

Zonally asymmetric component of summer surface temperature trends caused by intraseasonal time-scale processes

Recent years have witnessed extreme heatwaves in Europe and western North America. This study shows that these regions stand out in the zonally asymmetric component of the long-term trend of boreal summer surface temperature, and that intraseasonal timescale processes play an important role in shaping the zonally asymmetric trend pattern. However, these two regions have warmed by different mechanisms. Over Europe, the warming is mostly caused by the positive trend of the net (downward minus upward) surface shortwave radiation weighted by its intraseasonal timescale connection with the skin temperature. The long-term warming in western North America has been caused by the declining surface latent heat flux (weakened evaporative cooling) weighted by its intraseasonal connection with the skin temperature. These mechanisms are consistent with those identified in earlier studies of individual extreme events in the two regions, indicating that part of the long trends are a manifestation of extreme events. The overall findings indicate that to make accurate projections of regional climate change using climate model simulations, it is critical to ensure that the models also accurately simulate intraseasonal variability.

Enhanced causal effect of ecosystem photosynthesis on respiration during heatwaves.

Because of global warming, Earth's ecosystems have been experiencing more frequent and severe heatwaves. Heatwaves are expected to tip terrestrial carbon sequestration by elevating ecosystem respiration and suppressing gross primary productivity (GPP). Here, using the convergent cross-mapping technique, this study detected positive bidirectional causal effects between GPP and respiration in two unprecedented European heatwaves. Heatwaves enhanced the causal effect strength of GPP on respiration rather than respiration on GPP across 40 site-years of observations. Further analyses and global simulations revealed spatial heterogeneity in the heatwave response of the causal link strength between GPP and respiration, which was jointly driven by the local climate and vegetation properties. However, the causal effect strength of GPP on respiration showed considerable uncertainties in CMIP6 models. This study reveals an enhanced causal link strength between GPP and respiration during heatwaves, shedding light on improving projections for terrestrial carbon sink dynamics under future climate extremes.

Above-treeline ecosystems facing drought: lessons from the 2022 European summer heat wave

Abstract. In 2022, a large part of Europe experienced an extremely dry and hot summer. In the Alps, this episode occurred after an unusually low-snowfall winter, which aggravated the dryness of soils. This study examines the impact of this particular year on the canopy greenness of above-treeline ecosystems by comparison with previous heat waves that hit the Alps during the last 2 decades. Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite were processed to extract the temporal variability in yearly maximum NDVI (NDVImax). The responsiveness of NDVImax to snow cover duration and growing-season weather conditions was evaluated in contrasting hydroclimate regions of the Alps using linear mixed-effect models. The year 2022 was unique in that the summer heat wave led to a widespread negative anomaly of NDVImax. The magnitude of this anomaly was unprecedented in the southwestern, driest part of the Alps, where vegetation activity was found to be particularly responsive to snow cover duration and early summer precipitation. In the colder and wetter regions, all warm to very warm summers before 2022 had led to increased canopy greenness, but the combination of a reduced snow cover and low early summer precipitation counteracted this expected beneficial effect in 2022. This study provides evidence that the control of canopy greenness by temperature and water balance differs markedly across regions of the Alps and that the year 2022 bears witness to a shift toward an increasing importance of moisture availability for regulating plant growth at high elevation. This is viewed as a warning sign of what could become the new norm in the years ahead in the context of increasing frequency and intensity of extreme droughts throughout temperate mountain ecosystems.

Causes of 2022 Pakistan flooding and its linkage with China and Europe heatwaves

In boreal summer of 2022, Pakistan experienced extremely high rainfall, resulting in severe flooding and displacing over 30 million people. At the same time, heatwaves persisted over central China and Europe. The coexistence of these extreme events suggests a possible linkage. Our analysis indicated that the record rainfall was mainly induced by compounding factors. These included (1) La Niña-induced strong anomalous easterlies over the northern Indian subcontinent, (2) intense southerlies from the Arabian Sea with an upward trend in recent decades, (3) an interaction between extratropical and tropical systems, specifically the northerly flow downstream of the Europe blocking and the southerly monsoon flow from the Arabian Sea. Wave activity flux and regression analyses unveiled a distinct stationary Rossby wave-like pattern connecting the flooding in Pakistan and heatwaves in Europe and China. This pattern, an emerging teleconnection pattern in recent decade, exhibited substantial differences from the reported teleconnection patterns. We also noted the positive feedback of the excessive Pakistan rainfall could further enhance the large-scale background flow and the heavy rainfall itself. The 2022 Pakistan flood event was an intensified manifestation of the 2010 Pakistan flood event, which was also caused by compounding factors, but occurred in a more pronounced upward trend in the both tropics and extratropics.

A novel optimized model based on NARX networks for predicting thermal anomalies in Polish lakes during heatwaves, with special reference to the 2018 heatwave

In 2018, Europe experienced one of the most severe heatwaves ever recorded. This extreme event's impact on lake surface water temperature (LSWT) in Polish lakes has largely remained unknown. In this study, the impact of the 2018 European heatwave on LSWT in 24 Polish lakes was investigated based on a long-term observed dataset (1987–2020). To capture the LSWT dynamics during the heatwave period and reproduce lake heatwaves, a novel BO-NARX-BR model was developed and evaluated. This model combines the capabilities of the Nonlinear Autoregressive network with Exogenous Inputs (NARX) neural network, the Bayesian Optimization (BO) algorithm for optimizing the number of NARX hidden nodes and lagged input/target values, and the Bayesian Regularization (BR) backpropagation algorithm for the NARX training. The results showed that from April to October 2018, the mean and maximum LSWTs were 2.35 and 3.38 °C warmer than the base-period average (1987–2010) due to the impact of the extreme heatwave. The NARX-based model outperformed another widely used model called air2water in calibration and validation periods. The results also revealed that the BO-NARX-BR model produced significantly better results in capturing lake heatwaves, with computed duration and intensity of lake heatwaves close to the in-situ data. Additionally, LSWT anomaly significantly impacted the duration and intensity of heatwaves that occurred in lakes. Extreme climatic events are gaining increasing importance for the functioning of various elements of the hydrosphere. Such a situation encourages the search for more accurate methods and tools for their prediction. The model applied in the paper corresponds with these assumptions, and its good performance allows for its adaptation to lakes in other regions.

Framework to assess climate change impact on heating and cooling energy demands in building stock: A case study of Belgium in 2050 and 2100

Climate change has a broad impact on different aspects of energy use in buildings. This study explores potential changes in future heating and cooling energy demands. Increasing comfort expectations resulting from events like the extraordinary summer heatwaves in Europe are accelerating this trend to develop future scenarios for a better understanding of the relationship between future climate changes and the cooling need. This study used future weather data to estimate the heating and cooling energy demands in the Belgian building stock by 2050 and 2100 under base and business-as-usual scenarios using a dynamic building simulation model. The study showed that heating energy demand in the base scenario is expected to decrease by 8% to 13% in the 2050s and 13% to 22% in the 2090s compared to the 2010s. Additionally, the cooling energy demand is expected to increase by 39% to 65% in the 2050s and by 61% to 123% in the 2090s compared to the 2010s. Retrofit strategies applied to different building types contribute to lower the increase in cooling energy demand in the business-as-usual scenario compared to the base scenario. The cooling energy demand for an average building in the business-as-usual scenario is expected to increase with a range of 25% to 71% in the 2050s compared to 45% to 92% in the base scenario and 77% to 154% in the 2090s compared to 72% to 198% in the base scenario compared to the 2010s. The findings of the study provide insights to mitigate the impacts of climate change on heating and cooling energy demands.

How Unusual Is the 2022 European Compound Drought and Heatwave Event?

AbstractThe 2022 Compound Drought and Heatwave (CDHW) caused widespread crop damage, water shortages, and wildfires across Europe. Our study analyzed this event’s severity and return period (RP) and compared it with past mega CDHWs in Europe. The hardest‐hit areas were Iberian Peninsula, France, and Italy, where temperatures exceeded 2.5°C above normal, and severe droughts persisted from May to August. Using a Bayesian approach, we estimated the RP for the 2022 CDHW event, which was unprecedented in Northern Italy, Iberian Peninsula, and western parts of France, with RPs of 354, 420, and 280 years, respectively. The reduced soil moisture due to precipitation deficits and high temperatures contributed to the persistence and severity of drought, creating a positive feedback loop where dry soils led to even drier conditions. In light of our findings, it is evident that global warming poses increased risks of severe CDHW events, which are likely to increase.

Increased Summer European Heatwaves in Recent Decades: Contributions From Greenhouse Gases‐Induced Warming and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation‐Like Variations

AbstractSummer heatwaves over Europe, which can cause many deaths and severe damage, have become increasingly frequent over central and eastern Europe and western Russia in recent decades. In this paper, we estimate the contributions of the warming due to increased greenhouse gases (GHG) and nonlinear variations correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) to the observed heatwave trend over Europe during 1980–2021, when the GHG‐induced warming over Europe exhibits a linear trend. It is found that GHG‐induced warming contributes to ∼57% of the European heatwave trend over 1980–2021, while the cold‐to‐warm phase shift of the AMO‐like variations accounts for ∼43% of the trend via the intensification of midlatitude North Atlantic jet. The recent trend of heatwaves over western and northern Europe is mainly due to GHG‐induced warming, while that over central and eastern Europe and western Russia is primarily related to the combined effect of the AMO‐like variations and GHG‐induced warming. To some extent, GHG‐induced warming is an amplifier of the increasing trend of recent AMO‐related European heatwaves. Moreover, European blocking (Ural blocking, UB) is shown to contribute to 55% (42%) of the AMO‐related heatwave trend via the influence of midlatitude North Atlantic jet. In the presence of a strong North Atlantic jet during the recent warm AMO phase, UB events concurrent with positive‐phase North Atlantic Oscillation can cause intense, persistent and widespread heatwaves over Europe such as that observed in the summer of 2022.

Death toll of 2022's heatwaves in Europe finally pinned down

Death toll of 2022's heatwaves in Europe finally pinned down

Effects of the 2018 European heatwave and drought on coastal biogeochemistry in the German Bight

In 2018, Europe experienced an unprecedented heatwave and drought, especially in central and northern Europe, which caused decreased terrestrial production and affected ecosystem health. In this study, the effects of this event on the marine environment are investigate, with a focus on the biogeochemical response in the German Bight of the North Sea. Using time series data from FerryBoxes, research cruises, monitoring programs and remote sensing we compare conditions in 2018 to climatological values. We find that (1) the heatwave caused rapid warming of surface waters, (2) the drought reduced river discharge and nutrient loads to the coast, and (3) these combined effects altered coastal biogeochemistry and productivity. During 2018, both water discharge and nutrient loads from rivers discharging into the German Bight were below the seasonally variable 10th percentile from March onward. Throughout the study domain, water temperature was near or below that threshold in March 2018, but higher than in other years during May 2018, representing not only a heat wave, but also the fastest spring warming on record. This extreme warming period saw concurrent high peaks in chlorophyll a, dissolved oxygen and pH, consistent with the development of a strong spring bloom. It appears that productivity was above 75th percentile of the 21-year record in most of the nearshore region, while offshore it was widely below the 25th percentile in 2018. The drought-related low discharge limited nutrient supply from the rivers, but likely increased water residence time nearshore, where a surge in primary production with efficient nutrient utilization during the spring depleted nutrients available for transport offshore. There, the heatwave-related rapid warming of surface water resulted in the establishment of a stable thermal water column stratification, hindering vertical nutrient supply to the surface layer during the summer.

European heat waves 2022: contribution to extreme glacier melt in Switzerland inferred from automated ablation readings

Abstract. Accelerating glacier melt rates were observed during the last decades. Substantial ice loss occurs particularly during heat waves that are expected to intensify in the future. Because measuring and modelling glacier mass balance on a daily scale remains challenging, short-term mass balance variations, including extreme melt events, are poorly captured. Here, we present a novel approach based on computer-vision techniques for automatically determining daily mass balance variations at the local scale. The approach is based on the automated recognition of colour-taped ablation stakes from camera images and is tested and validated at six stations installed on three Alpine glaciers during the summers of 2019–2022. Our approach produces daily mass balance with an uncertainty of ±0.81 cm w.e. d−1, which is about half of the accuracy obtained from visual readouts. The automatically retrieved daily mass balances at the six sites were compared to average daily mass balances over the last decade derived from seasonal in situ observations to detect and assess extreme melt events. This allows analysing the impact that the summer heat waves which occurred in 2022 had on glacier melt. Our results indicate 23 d with extreme melt, showing a strong correspondence between the heat wave periods and extreme melt events. The combination of below-average winter snowfall and a suite of summer heat waves led to unprecedented glacier mass loss. The Switzerland-wide glacier storage change during the 25 d of heat waves in 2022 is estimated as 1.27 ± 0.10 km3 of water, corresponding to 35 % of the overall glacier mass loss during that summer. The same 25 d of heat waves caused a glacier mass loss that corresponds to 56 % of the average mass loss experienced over the entire melt season during the summers 2010–2020, demonstrating the relevance of heat waves for seasonal melt.

Dew benefits on alpine grasslands are cancelled out by combined heatwave and drought stress.

Increasing frequencies of heatwaves combined with simultaneous drought stress in Europe threaten the ecosystem water and carbon budgets of alpine grasslands. Dew as an additional water source can promote ecosystem carbon assimilation. It is known that grassland ecosystems keep high evapotranspiration as long as soil water is available. However, it is rarely being investigated whether dew can mitigate the impact of such extreme climatic events on grassland ecosystem carbon and water exchange. Here we use stable isotopes in meteoric waters and leaf sugars, eddy covariance fluxes for H2O vapor and CO2, in combination with meteorological and plant physiological measurements, to investigate the combined effect of dew and heat-drought stress on plant water status and net ecosystem production (NEP) in an alpine grassland (2000m elevation) during the June 2019 European heatwave. Before the heatwave, enhanced NEP in the early morning hours can be attributed to leaf wetting by dew. However, dew benefits on NEP were cancelled out by the heatwave, due to the minor contribution of dew in leaf water. Heat-induced reduction in NEP was intensified by the combined effect of drought stress. The recovery of NEP after the peak of the heatwave could be linked to the refilling of plant tissues during nighttime. Among-genera differences of plant water status affected by dew and heat-drought stress can be attributed to differences in their foliar dew water uptake, and their reliance on soil moisture or the impact of the atmospheric evaporative demand. Our results indicate that dew influence on alpine grassland ecosystems varies according to the environmental stress and plant physiology.

The extremely hot and dry 2018 summer in central and northern Europe from a multi-faceted weather and climate perspective

Abstract. The summer of 2018 was an extraordinary season in climatological terms for northern and central Europe, bringing simultaneous, widespread, and concurrent heat and drought extremes in large parts of the continent with extensive impacts on agriculture, forests, water supply, and the socio-economic sector. Here, we present a comprehensive, multi-faceted analysis of the 2018 extreme summer in terms of heat and drought in central and northern Europe, with a particular focus on Germany. The heatwave first affected Scandinavia in mid-July and shifted towards central Europe in late July, while Iberia was primarily affected in early August. The atmospheric circulation was characterized by strongly positive blocking anomalies over Europe, in combination with a positive summer North Atlantic Oscillation and a double jet stream configuration before the initiation of the heatwave. In terms of possible precursors common to previous European heatwaves, the Eurasian double-jet structure and a tripolar sea surface temperature anomaly over the North Atlantic were already identified in spring. While in the early stages over Scandinavia the air masses at mid and upper levels were often of a remote, maritime origin, at later stages over Iberia the air masses primarily had a local-to-regional origin. The drought affected Germany the most, starting with warmer than average conditions in spring, associated with enhanced latent heat release that initiated a severe depletion of soil moisture. During summer, a continued precipitation deficit exacerbated the problem, leading to hydrological and agricultural drought. A probabilistic attribution assessment of the heatwave in Germany showed that such events of prolonged heat have become more likely due to anthropogenic global warming. Regarding future projections, an extreme summer such as that of 2018 is expected to occur every 2 out of 3 years in Europe in a +1.5 ∘C warmer world and virtually every single year in a +2 ∘C warmer world. With such large-scale and impactful extreme events becoming more frequent and intense under anthropogenic climate change, comprehensive and multi-faceted studies like the one presented here quantify the multitude of their effects and provide valuable information as a basis for adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Average and extreme heatwaves in Europe at 0.5–2.0 °C global warming levels in CMIP6 model simulations

European heatwaves at the 0.5, 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 ^circC global warming levels above the pre-industrial temperature are examined using bias-corrected daily-mean temperature data from 60 simulations performed with 25 global climate models (GCMs). A heatwave event is defined here to consist of at least three consecutive days above the 90th percentile of summer daily-mean temperatures and a break of 1 day is allowed. At the 2.0 ^circC global warming level compared with 0.5 ^circC, the multi-GCM mean annual count of heatwave days is projected to be three to fourfold in northern and more than sixfold in southern Europe. The total annual heatwave extremity index, or the sum of exceedings above the threshold temperature over all the heatwave days, becomes approximatively fourfold in the north and tenfold in the south. In central Europe, the date of the strongest heatwave of year is delayed by about 1 week. By concatenating the bias-corrected output data of all the GCM runs, 1200-year samples were created from which probabilities of occurrence of the strongest heatwaves can be determined very robustly under all four warming levels. An intense heatwave occurring once in 10 years at the 0.5 ^circC warming level has an annual probability of about 50% in northern and 80–90% in southern Europe under 2.0 ^circC. Corresponding probabilities for 100-year heatwaves would be nearly 20% in the north and about 60% in the south. Finally, we discuss factors that explain the stronger increase in heatwave duration and extremity in the south than north.

Europe’s Water Crisis: From Overshadowed to Potentially Catastrophic

Water crises and scarcity can be seen as a result of the recent heat wave in Europe. The problem has been occurring in many countries for many years, so from a general point of view the water crisis may seem normal. However, Europe's drought and water crisis is now reported to be the worst in 500 years. Water crises could be chartered as national priorities that, at worst, could spark conflict on a global scale. Unfortunately, at the same time, the water crisis not only overshadowed by major political issues, but also other environmental issues. In order to better understand and analyze the global water crisis and climate change, green theory is used as a theoretical basis for the discussion. Through green theory, we can understand that Europe's water crisis is a cause of its own actions, becoming an environmental injustice through its effects. To solve the water crisis, Europe can participate in the 2023 UN Water Conference and implement reductions in water consumption. Europe's future depends on how successful it is in finding the best solutions. If left unchecked, Europe's future could be bleak.

Importance of humidity for characterization and communication of dangerous heatwave conditions

Heatwaves are one of the leading causes of climate-induced mortality. Using the examples of recent heatwaves in Europe, the United States and Asia, we illustrate how the communication of dangerous conditions based on temperature maps alone can lead to insufficient societal perception of health risks. Comparison of maximum daily values of temperature with physiological heat stress indices accounting for impacts of both temperature and humidity, illustrates substantial differences in geographical extent and timing of their respective peak values during these recent events. This signals the need to revisit how meteorological heatwaves and their expected impacts are communicated. Close collaboration between climate and medical communities is needed to select the best heat stress indicators, establish them operationally, and introduce them to the public.

Anthropogenic heat release due to energy consumption exacerbates European summer extreme high temperature

Anthropogenic heat release (AHR) is the release of heat generated by anthropogenic energy consumption. The global mean flux of AHR is 0.03 W m−2, while AHR is geographically concentrated and fundamentally correlates with economic activity; furthermore, AHR can reach a level sufficient for impacting regional even large-scale climate. In this study, the impacts of AHR on the summer European heatwaves (EHWs) are examined by using the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1). The results show that in Europe, AHR increases the summer mean 2-m temperature by 0.26 °C and the surface minimum and maximum temperatures by 0.14 °C and 0.41 °C, respectively. AHR exacerbates the extreme high temperatures in the summer in Europe, increasing EHW days by 1–2 days in central and eastern Europe in the summer annually from 1992 to 2013. AHR strengthens the surface wind that flows from the ocean to the land in Europe by increasing the land surface temperatures. AHR decreases the lower-troposphere stability (LTS) and reduces the low-cloud amounts in Europe, which leads to more solar shortwave radiation reaching the surface. AHR affects water vapor and the surface energy balance in Europe, which impacts on European summer heatwaves further. AHR acts as a non-negligible factor for summer extreme high temperature in Europe and a potential factor impacting EHW days.

Characterization of temperature regimes in Western Europe, as regards the summer 2022 Western European heat wave

Characterization of temperature regimes in Western Europe, as regards the summer 2022 Western European heat wave

Subseasonal Prediction of Central European Summer Heatwaves with Linear and Random Forest Machine Learning Models

Abstract Heatwaves are extreme near-surface temperature events that can have substantial impacts on ecosystems and society. Early warning systems help to reduce these impacts by helping communities prepare for hazardous climate-related events. However, state-of-the-art prediction systems can often not make accurate forecasts of heatwaves more than two weeks in advance, which are required for advance warnings. We therefore investigate the potential of statistical and machine learning methods to understand and predict central European summer heatwaves on time scales of several weeks. As a first step, we identify the most important regional atmospheric and surface predictors based on previous studies and supported by a correlation analysis: 2-m air temperature, 500-hPa geopotential, precipitation, and soil moisture in central Europe, as well as Mediterranean and North Atlantic sea surface temperatures, and the North Atlantic jet stream. Based on these predictors, we apply machine learning methods to forecast two targets: summer temperature anomalies and the probability of heatwaves for 1–6 weeks lead time at weekly resolution. For each of these two target variables, we use both a linear and a random forest model. The performance of these statistical models decays with lead time, as expected, but outperforms persistence and climatology at all lead times. For lead times longer than two weeks, our machine learning models compete with the ensemble mean of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast’s hindcast system. We thus show that machine learning can help improve subseasonal forecasts of summer temperature anomalies and heatwaves. Significance Statement Heatwaves (prolonged extremely warm temperatures) cause thousands of fatalities worldwide each year. These damaging events are becoming even more severe with climate change. This study aims to improve advance predictions of summer heatwaves in central Europe by using statistical and machine learning methods. Machine learning models are shown to compete with conventional physics-based models for forecasting heatwaves more than two weeks in advance. These early warnings can be used to activate effective and timely response plans targeting vulnerable communities and regions, thereby reducing the damage caused by heatwaves.

Intra-Annual Variability of the Surface Ablation of the Aldegondabreen Glacier (Spitsbergen)

The intra-annual variability of the surface ice ablation on the 5.5 km2 Aldegondabreen glacier (Spitsbergen Island, Barentsburg area) is presented. The ice ablation was measured during five seasons (2018–2022) at the two stakes, installed in the lower part of the glacier and at the index site, where the amount of ablation numerically coincides with the glacier-averaged value with the r = 0.99 agreement. The temporal resolution of the ice ablation data is uneven and varies from 3 to 45 days. To carry out the correlation analysis, meteorological data from the automated weather station located near the glacier terminus are used. The ice ablation rates, obtained after normalization for the number of days between stake readings, have a tight correlation with both the air temperature and the downwelling shortwave radiation flux for most of the seasons, in 2018–2021 (r = 0.71–0.99). Surface air temperature and short-wave radiation are closely related; the above estimates indicate the leading role of short-wave radiation in the summer ablation of the glacier in the period 2018–2021. The year 2022 became anomalous, as the correlation with the shortwave radiation significantly decreased (r = 0.21–0.34). The European heat wave of 2022, which also affected the Svalbard archipelago, interrupted the ordinary intra-annual variability of the air temperature, causing the unprecedented ice melt on Aldegondabreen in September. The predicted increase in frequency and intensity of the future heat waves will result in an increased role of turbulent fluxes in the surface energy balance of the low-elevated Svalbard glaciers. The article demonstrates how the empirically identified dependencies can change from season to season in a non-stationary climate.