European Exchange Rate Research Articles

European exchange rate adjustments in response to COVID-19, containment measures and stabilization policies

European exchange rate adjustments in response to COVID-19, containment measures and stabilization policies

Business cycle transmission between France and United Kingdom

PurposeThe literature mostly investigates the business cycle transmission of the United Kingdom (UK) and France as a part of a wider group (e.g. European Exchange Rate Mechanism or G7), despite their historical links and regional significance. Thus, herein paper aims to analyse the inter-dependence of these economies and how a shock from one of them affects the other for the data since 1978 to 2019.Design/methodology/approachIn this paper, first, preliminary statistics were calculated in order to describe the historical relationship between these countries. The econometric part estimates the vector auto-regression model (VAR) to assess the inter-dependence of the economies. VAR model allows further to inspect the impulse response functions that shows the shock dynamics from one country to another. In order to verify if a shock from one of the economies is important to another, the study uses granger causality test.FindingsThe study establishes a strong link between these countries. A business cycle is transmitted significantly between the economies of France and UK, with a single standard deviation shock from France resulting in a long term effect of 0.4% change in gross domestic product (GDP) of UK and 1% vice versa. Additionally changes in GDP of both of the countries significantly Granger-cause change to GDP of the corresponding economy.Originality/valueThis is the first empirical study investigating the business cycle transmission between France and UK and providing a quantitative assessment of their inter-dependence.

MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY REDUX—THE MINI-BUDGET

Not so very long ago, I argued that it was possible to characterise modern monetary and fiscal policy in the UK as a function of three key events: exit from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism in September 1992, the election of ‘New Labour’ in May 1997 and the global financial crisis of 2007–2009. The first led to the adoption of a domestic inflation target in October 1992, the second to the operational independence of the Bank of England and the establishment of the Monetary Policy Committee and the third to the acceptance of the need for macro-prudential policies, extraordinary monetary interventions to augment a simple interest rate rule and formal budgetary oversight by a fiscal council. The latter was provided by the Office for Budget Responsibility, which was established in 2010.

The regional innovations governance: Slovakia with regard to convergence criteria

The introduction of the euro in Europe is subject to several criteria. In 1979, the European Community created the «European Exchange Rate Mechanism» (ERM). On 16 April, 2003, Slovakia, together with nine other countries, signed the EU Accession Treaty in Athens. These countries promised to adopt the single currency (the euro). It has been 10 years since the introduction of the euro in Slovakia. It stands to highlight factors that have contributed to the economic, innovation development experienced in recent years regarding introducing a single currency. This article aims to briefly introduce the euro area and present each country's accession in historical order. the authors presented the general conditions for introducing the euro and then went on to the events related to the regional innovations governance of Slovakia. Using the data from the statistical site Eurostat, the Pearson correlation coefficient was used to indicate the closeness of relationships between the average values of inflation and government deficit and the average values of inflation and the public debt. The limitations of the research are that Eurostat's values are only indicative and, in the event of a possible accession, EU bodies would certainly use other, more reliable data. Furthermore, the ERM II criterion for joining the euro area cannot be examined due lack of statistics available on the Slovak koruna's value after the introduction. Another limitation is that the EU sometimes makes adjustments to calculating inflation and average nominal long-term interest rates. There is a lack of a significant relationship between the examined variables in the case of Slovakia. Based on the 2018 inflation rate, the introduction would not have been possible, as it was slightly higher (2.5 per cent) than the limit (2.23 per cent). Therefore, the authors assumed that Slovakia had adopted the euro on time, as if it had not done so on 1 January 2009, it would probably have had to wait a few years for the new opportunity. Although their results are only indicative and not decisive without taking ERM II into account, it is possible to do without specific indicators.

Why is the euro punching below its weight?

SUMMARY On the twentieth anniversary of its inception, the euro has yet to expand its role as an international currency. We document this fact with a wide range of indicators including its role as an anchor or reference in exchange rate arrangements – which we argue is a portmanteau measure – and as a currency for the denomination of trade and assets. On all these dimensions, the euro comprises a far smaller share than that of the US dollar. Furthermore, that share has been roughly constant since 1999. By some measures, the euro plays no larger role than the Deutschemark and French franc that it replaced. We explore the reasons for this underperformance. While the leading anchor currency may have a natural monopoly, a number of additional factors have limited the euro’s reach, including lack of financial centre, limited geopolitical reach and US and Chinese dominance in technology research. Most important, in our view, is the comparatively scarce supply of (safe) euro-denominated assets, which we document. The European Central Bank’s (ECB's) lack of policy clarity may have also played a role. We show that the euro era can be divided into a ‘Bundesbank-plus’ period and a ‘Whatever it Takes’ period. The first shows a smooth transition from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism and continued to stabilize German inflation. The second period is characterized by an expanding ECB arsenal of credit facilities to European banks and sovereigns.

Unexpected Currency Volatility and Global Technological Innovation Activities

We investigate the real effects of foreign exchange (FX) volatility on technological innovation. Using a 32-market, three-decade sample, we show that heightened FX volatility associates with significantly lower firm-level RD it is weaker for firms with derivatives hedging, with higher sales, and in countries with better financial development. We also use FX regime changes and the collapse of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism to support a causal interpretation.

“Silicon trade policies” and a comparative analysis of China-U.S. and Japan-U.S. trade conflicts

ABSTRACT In this paper, we first compare the U.S.-Japan trade conflicts of the 1980s and 1990s with the current 21st century Trump Administration U.S.-China trade wars. Topics to be compared include complaints of bilateral trade imbalances, ‘unique’ economic or business organizations and exchange rate manipulations. Relevant contemporaneous research and policy lessons are drawn from the management of previous U.S.-Japan trade disputes and their potential applicability to the ongoing U.S.-China trade rivalry. Since one of the major differences between the periods of the two major trade conflicts is the emergence and prevalence of digital companies, we provide here a formal model of digital firm and see how some ‘Silicon trade policies’ such as being put on an ‘Entity List’, being blocked from European technology market and exchange rate depreciation can affect these networked companies.

Why is the Euro Punching Below its Weight?

On the twentieth anniversary of its inception, the euro has yet to expand its role as an international currency. We document this fact with a wide range of indicators including its role as an anchor or reference in exchange rate arrangements—which we argue is a portmanteau measure—and as a currency for the denomination of trade and assets. On all these dimensions, the euro comprises a far smaller share than that of the US dollar. Furthermore, that share has been roughly constant since 1999. By some measures, the euro plays no larger a role than the Deutschemark and French franc that it replaced. We explore the reasons for this underperformance. While the leading anchor currency may have a natural monopoly, a number of additional factors have limited the euro’s reach, including lack of financial center, limited geopolitical reach, and US and Chinese dominance in technology research. Most important, in our view, is the comparatively scarce supply of (safe) euro-denominated assets, which we document. The European Central Bank’ lack of policy clarity may have also played a role. We show that the euro era can be divided into a “Bundesbank-plus” period and a “Whatever it Takes” period. The first shows a smooth transition from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism and continued to stabilize German inflation. The second period is characterised by an expanding ECB arsenal of credit facilities to European banks and sovereigns Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

The run-up to the global financial crisis: A longer historical view of financial liberalization, capital inflows, and asset bubbles

Using forecast error and sensitivity analyses with a vector error correction model for the US economy, we find that the specific exogenous shocks that contributed to the run-up to the global financial crisis of 2007–2009 vary across the three time periods (1980–1988; 1989–1997; and 1998–2006) that are known for distinctive historical events. Deregulation in the 1980s and capital inflows in the early and mid-1990s triggered by the collapse of the European exchange rate mechanism contributed significantly to changes in real house prices. However, capital inflows after the Asian financial crises in 1997 were driven in large part by rising asset prices. Thus, there were interesting changes in the nature of exogenous shocks and directions of causality through the three sub-periods. These results are robust even after controlling for the exogenous global factors partly determining short-run changes in capital flows, asset prices, and per capita real GDP. We conclude that all of the short run changes in response to financial deregulation starting in the 1980s, surges in capital inflows in the early 1990s, and people's expectation of ever-rising asset prices in the late 1990s and early 2000s culminated in the crisis of 2007–2009.

Greek sovereign crisis and European exchange rates: effects of news releases and their providers

In this paper, we study the contribution of the geographical (both the regional and international) aspect of news releases, related to the Greek sovereign debt crisis. We investigate the impact of the Greek debt crisis via economic news and surprises on Euro exchange rate volatility and volatility-jumps within a Tobit regression framework. In particular, the impact of three categories of news is examined via the respective number of dummy variables, the number of news per day, and news surprises of 2-year, 5-year and 10-year government bonds and CDS. Also, the role of news releases providers is researched. The analysis starts from 1 July 2009 and ends on 31 May 2015. The data comprises intraday prices for (1) Euro to US dollar (Euro/USD), (2) Euro to Japanese yen (Euro/JPY), (3) Euro to Great British pound (Euro/GBP), (4) Euro to Swiss franc (Euro/CHF) and (5) Euro to Australian dollar (Euro/AUD). Our findings reveal that Greek events have an important impact on the behavior of the Euro exchange market. Secondly, the identity of the provider of news releases about the Greek sovereign crisis affects Europeś exchange rates highlighting homogeneity problems in the Eurozone. The uncertainty, introduced by the Greek sovereign crisis, as shown by our findings, signifies the financial instability in the Eurozone and the strength of the Euro currency. This is vital for policymakers in a common currency environment. Policymakers could evaluate such findings and re-examine the structural plan of the Euro, targeting primarily at the financial integration of the member states.

Economic crises and suicides between 1970 and 2011: time trend study in 21 developed countries

BackgroundExisting research on the relationship between economic recessions and suicides has almost completely concentrated on the most recent global financial crisis (2008). We provide the most comprehensive explanation to date...

How can experts help governments think?: inaugural lecture

ABSTRACTBritain’s exit from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992 and the Second Iraq War in 2003 are two infamous examples of disastrous policy, but governments blunder all the time – whatever party is in power. Infrastructure projects overrun. The aims and techniques of different departments clash. Scandals erupt among officials and politicians. Controversies stymie attempts at agreement and consensus. But why exactly do these failures happen? Are they more or less widespread than in the private sector? And can studying British governments’ decision-making across the twentieth century improve it in the future? In his May 2018 inaugural lecture, Professor O'Hara recommended a slow, deliberative, transparent, democratic and above all humble and sensitive approach in order to avoid another Black Wednesday or ruinous war – an approach in contrast to the populist tone of much recent debate.

The Forward-Discount Puzzle in Central and Eastern Europe

This paper adds to evidence that the forward-discount puzzle is at least in part explained as a compensation for taking crash risk. A number of Central and Eastern European exchange rates are compared. A hidden Markov model is used to identify two regimes for most of the exchange rates. These two regimes can be characterised as being either periods of calm or periods of crisis The level of international risk aversion and changes in US interest rates affect the probability of switching from one regime to the other. This model is then used to assess the way that these two factors affect the probability of a currency crisis. While the Czech Republic, Hungary and Bulgaria are very sensitive to international financial conditions, Poland and Romania are relatively immune.

Time-Frequency Linkages and Co-Movements between the Euro and European Stock Market: A Continuous Wavelet Analysis.

We investigate the evolution of co-movement and lead-lag relationships between the nominal effective European exchange rate and the largest European stock markets in the time and frequency dimension. We decompose the financial return series into different time scales and apply the cross-wavelet coherence and phase difference. Within our sample set, which consists of daily data from 2000 to 2016, we observe patterns consistent with the notion of contagion, suggesting strong and sudden increases in the cross-market synchronization on particular frequency bands. Investigating the lead-lag relationships between both markets, we observe periods and frequencies where the causality runs from one variable to the other and vice-versa.

The contributions to systemic stress of financial interactions between the US and Europe

Understanding the connectivity of international financial markets is critical to understanding the origination and propagation of financial crises. This study investigates the contribution of US and European exchange rate interactions to overall stress in the US financial system from 1992 to 2013. The impacts of these interactions are assessed using a financial stress index that aggregates measures of national and international stresses. There are three main findings for the sample period. First, we find that European influences on US financial stress have increased. Second, observing several structural breaks with changing correlation and Granger causality patterns, we find that the euro and the British pound have contributed varying levels of stress. Third, we find that stress in US markets tends to spill over into European markets, while the reverse influences are of lesser importance. These findings have important implications for supervisors in international markets. Understanding the amplifying or attenuating feedback effects from international connectivity provides valuable insight into the development of macroprudential policies.

Long-range dependence in returns and volatility of global gold market amid financial crises

Using sampled historical daily gold market data from 07-03-1985 to 06-01-2015, and building on a related work by Bentes (2016), this paper examines the presence of long-range dependence (LRD) in the world’s gold market returns and volatility, accounting for structural breaks. The sampled gold market data was divided into subsamples based on four global crises: the September 1992 collapse of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM), the Asian financial crisis of mid-1997, the Subprime meltdown of 2007, and the recent European sovereign debt crisis, which hit the world’s market with varying effects. LRD test was carried-out on the full-sample and subsample periods using three semiparametric methods—before and after adjusting for structural breaks. The results show insignificant evidence of LRD in gold returns. However, very diminutive evidence is found for periods characterized by financial/economic shocks, with no significant detections for post-shock periods. Collectively, this is indicative that the gold market is less speculative, and hence could be somehow less risky for hedging and portfolio diversification.

A New S.D.E. and Instantaneous Mean Reversion Rate Formula (Presented via a Numerical Empirical Model Comparison)

The theory in this research is to ascertain that, not all models are good all the time. A comparison, of short-rate one factor models is calibrated and analyzed numerically via a Monte Carlo simulation, using two variance reduction techniques. The first technique is stratified sampling, the second the Sobol Algorithm. An empirical comparison is constructed using criterions of the goodness of fit of the models. The aim is to amend the discussion to ex-ante predictability of stochastic models. Five European exchange rates are examined. A new explicit instantaneous mean reversion formula and a new short rate model are introduced.

International Equity Markets Co-movements And Contagion: A Novel Perspective

Our paper conducts an asset pricing perspective to investigate OECD equity markets co-movements and contagion during different crises. The paper aims at distinguishing between changes in cross-markets linkages during a crisis, on the one hand, and strong but stable cross-markets linkages and permanent shifts in these linkages, on the other hand. Our empirical setting relies on the three factor model of Bekeart and al. (2005, 2011) and differs by testing the co-movements in their double dimensions: interdependence and contagion during the Asian, the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) and the Global Financial crises in different regions. Our results highlight the existence of cross-sectional patterns both in regional and USA market correlations with OECD equity markets. Evidence of contagion exists during the ERM and the Global Financial crisis, but no contagion caused by the Asian crisis. Our findings lead to an international diversification opportunity and suggest that contagion effects are not strongly related to high levels of global integration.

European exchange rate regimes and purchasing power parity: An empirical study on eleven eurozone countries

It is widely believed that following the adoption of the euro, long run purchasing power parity (PPP) is more likely to hold within the euro countries. By applying the panel unit root test of Pesaran (2007) to real exchange rate data of eleven euro countries for the sample period of January 1957 to May 2013, we find that, contrary to the above intuition, the evidence for the mean-reverting in real exchange rates is much weaker in the post-1998 euro period than in the pre-euro period. In contrast, we find that for the four countries not using the euro: Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, and the UK, the evidence for the mean-reverting in real exchange rates is strong in both the pre- and post-euro (post-1998) periods. Moreover, through our panel estimation of the error correction model using the common correlated effects (CCE) estimators a la Pesaran (2006), we find that the flexibility of nominal exchange rates is crucial for the adjustment of real exchange rates to PPP.

Long-term association between European and Indian markets on carbon credit price

Abstract This study tries to explore cointegration and Granger causality of daily CER prices in European Energy Exchange and Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) in India in a multivariate framework after controlling euro–rupee exchange rate and Inter-Bank Offer Rate, a measure of country specific risk. Both ARDL bounds tests and Johansen–Juselius maximum likelihood procedures fail to establish a cointegrating relationship among the variables indicating that an arbitrage opportunity exists between these two markets. The study, however, establishes a short-term Granger causality running from change in CER price in European Energy Exchange and exchange rate to Indian exchange. Generalised error variance decomposition of variables indicates that the price of CER at the Indian stock exchange is most endogenous in nature.