European Blocking Research Articles

Investigating the medium‐range predictability of European heatwave onsets in relation to weather regimes using ensemble reforecasts

AbstractIn this study, the medium‐range predictability of heatwave (HW) onsets in four midlatitude European regions is investigated statistically with the help of ensemble reforecasts for the period 2001–2018. The concept of Euro‐Atlantic weather regimes is adopted to characterise HWs (about 50 in each region) and to study whether forecast skill may depend on the large‐scale dynamical setup. HW onsets over the British Isles and Scandinavia are mainly associated with Scandinavian and European blocking regimes, whereas the “no regime” case is observed more frequently for Central Europe. Stratified by weather regime, the predictability of heatwave onsets is then studied by means of a multiple metric‐based analysis of European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Ensemble Forecast System Version 12 (GEFSv12) ensemble reforecasts. For two of the regions considered, Central Europe and the British Isles, a conclusive picture is obtained: medium‐range predictive skill is significantly higher for HW onsets associated with Scandinavian or European blocking compared with cases with no pronounced regime. This skill advantage mostly concerns the large‐scale flow and, to some extent, 850‐hPa temperatures, but is generally not reflected in the correct prediction of near‐surface temperatures. Finally, we investigate for two regions how exceptionally good or poor forecasts are related to the atmospheric state during or shortly after forecast initialisation. At 10 days lead time, poor large‐scale flow predictive skill for Central European HW onsets is linked to anomalously high baroclinicity further upstream and an intensified North Atlantic jet stream, whereas good forecasts on average feature an initial state close to climatology. Forecast skill for near‐surface temperatures is not affected by such dynamical precursors, but rather by pre‐existing soil‐moisture anomalies. For the British region, exceptionally good forecasts of both large‐scale flow and near‐surface temperatures are associated with an already established continental blocking. In contrast to Central Europe, pre‐existing soil‐moisture anomalies play less of a role there.

Comparative Analysis of Characteristics and Physical Mechanisms for Typical Summer Extreme Precipitation in Pakistan

Abstract The 2022 floods in Pakistan resulted in severe losses and garnered global attention. This study aims to enhance the understanding of extreme precipitation (EP) events in Pakistan by examining the characteristics and mechanisms behind the persistent EP during summer, utilizing daily precipitation data from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). Results showed that the monsoon precipitation in 2010, 2020 and 2022 are the highest three years on record. Notably, these peak events in 2010 (concentrating in the north) and 2022 (concentrating in the south) spanned from July through August. Conversely, the extreme precipitation in August 2020 was concentrated in northern Pakistan. For the circulation patterns, the intensification of the South Asian High and the western Pacific subtropical high with a strong Indian monsoon is a unifying feature, but the Iranian high and monsoon low-pressure system on the south of Pakistan was different. Additionally, the EP in July 2010 and August 2022 were also influenced by the teleconnection associated with European Blocking. La Niña events and the negative-phase Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) also played a role in affecting summer EP, with the strongest La Niña occurring in 2010 and a notable triple-dip La Niña coinciding with a significant negative IOD phase in 2022. La Niña contributed to the formation of an anomalously strong anticyclone over the northwest Pacific and easterly winds along the southern Himalayas, impacting moisture transport to Pakistan. Conversely, the negative IOD phase amplified EP in Pakistan by enhancing the northward movement of convective systems and westerly winds over the Indian Ocean. Furthermore, reduced snow cover on the Tibetan Plateau in the springs of 2010 and 2022 likely induced a stronger thermal dynamical effect, acting as a heat source in summer and increasing precipitation in Pakistan.

The Circumglobal Transport of Massive African Dust and Its Impacts on the Regional Circulation in Remote Atmosphere

Abstract Atmospheric dust from North Africa, the largest and most persistently active dust source over the world, spreads widely in the Northern Hemisphere and plays essential roles in the Earth environment evolution. During 7–24 June 2020, an extremely strong dust event occurred with its westward spreading modulated by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and its eastward spreading regulated by European blocking, ultimately resulting in the circumglobal transport of African dust. The Mediterranean low pressure linked to the European blocking dipole was the key to facilitating the eastward transport of dust. This record-breaking African dust episode caused a notable diurnal precipitation decrease of 0.98 mm day−1 over northeastern India and a decrease of 1.55 mm day−1 over central North America, which was ascribed to the effect of dust-induced radiative heating on large-scale circulation. It triggered a Rossby wave train and caused anomalous high pressure over northeastern India, which weakened the India summer monsoon and consequently inhibited the occurrence of precipitation. Dust-induced radiative heating also supported the stability in the anomalous warm high over North America, further repressing import of moisture from Atlantic. Ambient moisture and atmospheric instability also presented consistent variation over North America and India characterized as strengthen descending motion and sharply reduced moist convection. This study reports, for the first time, the strong modulation of regional circulation by circumglobally transported African dust, especially in Asia and North America. The new aspects on the unexpected consequences on moisture convection indicate broader roles that the dust may play in the global climate change.

The 2022 record-breaking high temperature in China: Sub-seasonal stepwise enhanced characteristics, possible causes and its predictability

In the summer of 2022, an unprecedented and long-lasting high temperature swept central-eastern China, causing significant societal effects. However, the sub-seasonal characteristics, causes and predictability of this extreme high temperature event are not well explored. Based on the locations, intensities and causes of the high temperature, we divided it into three stages: early (13 June–3 July), sustained (4–28 July), and enhancement (29 July–30 August) stages. The high temperature during the early stage mainly occurred in north-central China with an anomaly of 2.5 °C compared with climatology (1981–2010), while the last two stages occurred in the middle and lower Yangtze River Basin with anomalies of 2.8 and 3.8 °C respectively. The high temperature during the three stages were all regulated by the strengthening and westward extension of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) but involved different physical process. In the early stage, it was mainly caused by the anticyclones over the Mongolia and Northwest Pacific and enhanced by the minor impact of WPSH. In the sustained stage it was influenced by relatively more stronger WPSH and South Asia high (SAH) and the relatively minor impact of the anticyclone over the north-western South Asia. In the enhancement stage, the high temperature was mainly caused by a combination of the record-breaking WPSH and SAH and the strong European blocking high. Inside, the exceptionally powerful WPSH was well correlated with the sea surface temperature gradient induced by the developing La Niña. The ECMWF and NCEP models reasonably predicted the location and intensity of the high temperature in the early stage, but poorly predicted that in the sustained and enhancement stages partly because of the failure prediction of the WPSH's enhancement and westward extension. The ECMWF model's more accurate prediction of the WPSH may contribute to its better forecasting of the heatwaves.

Reversal of decadal trend in West China autumn rainfall in the late 1990s and possible causes

As a complex regional weather and climate phenomenon in China, the highly variable West China autumn rainfall (WCAR) causes severe flooding and related disasters that can have major impacts on socioeconomic and environmental sustainability. This study investigated both the reversal of the decadal trend in the WCAR during 1961–2020 and the related atmospheric circulation and oceanic backgrounds. The results showed that the decadal trend in the WCAR underwent distinct reversal in the late 1990s, with a significant trend of decline (increase) before (after) this reversal, which was directly linked to variations in the large-scale Eurasian atmospheric circulation, local moisture transport and dynamic conditions, and sea surface temperature (SST) in the subtropical South Pacific. Further investigation indicated that reduced sea level pressure over Asia, an enhanced European blocking high, and a deepened Lake Balkhash trough during the latter period favored southward movement of high-latitude cold air into West China. Moreover, a stronger southerly flow in the southern West China was observed in the latter period, which tended to transport more moisture from low-latitude ocean areas. Northward displacement of the East Asian jet (EAJ) also played a strong dynamic role in the reversal of the WCAR trend. Additionally, the reversal of the decadal trend in WCAR might also be attributed to a change in the trend of SST in the subtropical South Pacific from warming to cooling in the late 1990s. This resulted in southward displacement of the EAJ, which generated an anomalous descent and reduction in the WCAR.

Increased Summer European Heatwaves in Recent Decades: Contributions From Greenhouse Gases‐Induced Warming and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation‐Like Variations

AbstractSummer heatwaves over Europe, which can cause many deaths and severe damage, have become increasingly frequent over central and eastern Europe and western Russia in recent decades. In this paper, we estimate the contributions of the warming due to increased greenhouse gases (GHG) and nonlinear variations correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) to the observed heatwave trend over Europe during 1980–2021, when the GHG‐induced warming over Europe exhibits a linear trend. It is found that GHG‐induced warming contributes to ∼57% of the European heatwave trend over 1980–2021, while the cold‐to‐warm phase shift of the AMO‐like variations accounts for ∼43% of the trend via the intensification of midlatitude North Atlantic jet. The recent trend of heatwaves over western and northern Europe is mainly due to GHG‐induced warming, while that over central and eastern Europe and western Russia is primarily related to the combined effect of the AMO‐like variations and GHG‐induced warming. To some extent, GHG‐induced warming is an amplifier of the increasing trend of recent AMO‐related European heatwaves. Moreover, European blocking (Ural blocking, UB) is shown to contribute to 55% (42%) of the AMO‐related heatwave trend via the influence of midlatitude North Atlantic jet. In the presence of a strong North Atlantic jet during the recent warm AMO phase, UB events concurrent with positive‐phase North Atlantic Oscillation can cause intense, persistent and widespread heatwaves over Europe such as that observed in the summer of 2022.

Meteorological conditions during periods of low wind speed and insolation in Germany: The role of weather regimes

AbstractRenewable power generation from wind and solar energy is strongly dependent on the weather. To plan future sustainable energy systems that are robust to weather variability, a better understanding of why and when periods of low wind and solar power output occur is valuable. We call such periods of low wind speed and insolation “Dunkelflauten”, the German word for “dark wind lulls”. In this article, we analyse the meteorological conditions during Dunkelflauten in Germany by applying the concept of weather regimes. Weather regimes are quasi‐stationary, recurrent and persistent large‐scale circulation patterns that explain multi‐day atmospheric variability (5–15 days). We use a regime definition that allows us to distinguish four different types of blocked regimes, characterized by high‐pressure situations in the North Atlantic‐European region. We find that Dunkelflauten in Germany occur mainly in winter when the solar power output is low due to the seasonal cycle of solar irradiance and wind power output drops for several consecutive days. A high‐pressure system over Germany, associated with the European Blocking regime, is responsible for most of the Dunkelflauten. Dunkelflauten during the Greenland Blocking regime are associated with colder temperatures than usual, causing higher electricity demand, and would present a particular challenge as space heating becomes electrified in the future. Furthermore, we show that Dunkelflauten occur predominantly when a weather regime is well established and persists longer than usual. Our study provides novel insight into the occurrence and meteorological characteristics of Dunkelflauten, which is essential for planning resilient energy systems and supporting grid operators to prepare for potential shortages in supply.

Multi‐model assessment of sub‐seasonal predictive skill for year‐round Atlantic–European weather regimes

AbstractThe prediction skill of sub‐seasonal forecast models is evaluated for seven year‐round weather regimes in the Atlantic–European region. Reforecasts based on models from three prediction centers are considered and verified against weather regimes obtained from ERA‐Interim reanalysis. Results show that predicting weather regimes as a proxy for the large‐scale circulation outperforms the prediction of raw geopotential height. Greenland blocking tends to have the longest year‐round skill horizon for all three models, especially in winter. On the other hand, the skill is lowest for the European blocking regime for all three models, followed by the Scandinavian blocking regime. Furthermore, all models struggle to forecast flow situations that cannot be assigned to a weather regime (so‐called no regime), in comparison with weather regimes. Related to this, variability in the occurrence of no regime, which is most frequent in the transition seasons, partly explains the predictability gap between transition seasons and winter and summer. We also show that models have difficulties in discriminating between related regimes. This can lead to misassignments in the predicted regime during flow situations in which related regimes manifest. Finally, we document the changes in skill between model versions, showing important improvements for the ECMWF and NCEP models. This study is the first multi‐model assessment of year‐round weather regimes in the Atlantic–European domain. It advances our understanding of the predictive skill for weather regimes, reveals strengths and weaknesses of each model, and thus increases our confidence in the forecasts and their usefulness for decision‐making.

Towards a holistic understanding of blocked regime dynamics through a combination of complementary diagnostic perspectives

Abstract. Atmospheric blocking describes a situation in which a stationary and persistent anticyclone blocks the eastward propagation of weather systems in the midlatitudes and can lead to extreme weather events. In the North Atlantic–European region, blocking contributes to life cycles of weather regimes which are recurrent, quasi-stationary, and persistent patterns of the large-scale circulation. Despite progress in blocking theory over the last decades, we are still lacking a comprehensive, process-based conceptual understanding of blocking dynamics. Here we combine three different perspectives on so-called “blocked” weather regimes, namely the commonly used Eulerian and Lagrangian perspectives, complemented by a novel quasi-Lagrangian perspective. Within the established framework of midlatitude potential vorticity (PV) thinking, the joint consideration of the three perspectives enables a comprehensive picture of the dynamics and quantifies the importance of dry and moist processes during a blocked weather regime life cycle. We apply the diagnostic framework to a European blocking weather regime life cycle in March 2016, which was associated with a severe forecast bust in the North Atlantic–European region. The three perspectives highlight the importance of moist processes during the onset or maintenance of the blocked weather regime. The Eulerian perspective, which identifies the processes contributing to the onset and decay of the regime, indicates that dry quasi-barotropic wave dynamics and especially the eastward advection of PV anomalies (PVAs) into the North Atlantic–European region dominate the onset of the regime pattern. By tracking the negative upper-tropospheric PVA associated with the “block”, the quasi-Lagrangian view reveals, for the same period, abrupt amplification due to moist processes. This is in good agreement with the Lagrangian perspective indicating that a large fraction of air parcels that end up in the negative PVA experience diabatic heating. Overall, the study shows that important contributions to the development take place outside of the region in which the blocked weather regime eventually establishes, and that a joint consideration of different perspectives is important in order not to miss processes, in particular moist-baroclinic dynamics, contributing to a blocked regime life cycle.

Different Characteristics and Drivers of the Extraordinary Pakistan Rainfall in July and August 2022

The unprecedented and long-lasting abnormal monsoon rainfall attacked Pakistan in the summer of 2022, causing severe flooding. This study investigated the sub-seasonal characteristics and mechanisms of this distinctively extreme precipitation event. The historical rainfall in July and August and extreme precipitation mainly occurred in northern Pakistan. Both the monthly rainfall in July and August 2022 and the extreme precipitation during the summer were far exceeding the historical record and involved unique spatial distribution. The rainfall in July 2022 is nationwide and mainly located in northern Pakistan, while the rainfall in August and extreme precipitation occurred in southern Pakistan. Different physical processes are responsible for the precipitation in July and August 2022. In July, the South Asian high (SAH) and Iranian high extended eastward. Meanwhile, the anticyclonic circulation anomalies occurred in northwestern Pakistan and the easterly winds enhanced in the south side of the Tibetan Plateau (TP), which strengthened water vapor transporting from the Bay of Bengal and cooperated with the cyclonic system over the Arabian Sea to enhance the precipitation over Pakistan. In August, the SAH further extended eastward and the Western Pacific Subtropical High extended westward to the TP. Meanwhile, the European blocking (EB) developed, and a deep trough appeared over northwestern Pakistan. This weakened the easterly flow along southern TP but enhanced the southerly flow accompanying the cyclone over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, and thus guided the water vapor transporting to southern Pakistan and enhanced the precipitation. The extreme precipitation in July was mainly attributed to the unusually strong Indian monsoon, while the extreme precipitation in August was the result of a combination of the Indian monsoon and EB. The study provided important information about extreme precipitation in Pakistan, which will help policymakers take measures to deal with the effects of flooding.

Similarity and variability of blocked weather-regime dynamics in the Atlantic–European region

Abstract. Weather regimes govern an important part of the sub-seasonal variability of the mid-latitude circulation. Due to their role in weather extremes and atmospheric predictability, regimes that feature a blocking anticyclone are of particular interest. This study investigates the dynamics of these “blocked” regimes in the North Atlantic–European region from a year-round perspective. For a comprehensive diagnostic, wave activity concepts and a piecewise potential vorticity (PV) tendency framework are combined. The latter essentially quantifies the well-established PV perspective of mid-latitude dynamics. The four blocked regimes (namely Atlantic ridge, European blocking, Scandinavian blocking, and Greenland blocking) during the 1979–2021 period of ERA5 reanalysis are considered. Wave activity characteristics exhibit distinct differences between blocked regimes. After regime onset, Greenland blocking is associated with a suppression of wave activity flux, whereas Atlantic ridge and European blocking are associated with a northward deflection of the flux without a clear net change. During onset, the envelope of Rossby wave activity retracts upstream for Greenland blocking, whereas the envelope extends downstream for Atlantic ridge and European blocking. Scandinavian blocking exhibits intermediate wave activity characteristics. From the perspective of piecewise PV tendencies projected onto the respective regime pattern, the dynamics that govern regime onset exhibit a large degree of similarity: linear Rossby wave dynamics and nonlinear eddy PV fluxes dominate and are of approximately equal relative importance, whereas baroclinic coupling and divergent amplification make minor contributions. Most strikingly, all blocked regimes exhibit very similar (intra-regime) variability: a retrograde and an upstream pathway to regime onset. The retrograde pathway is dominated by nonlinear PV eddy fluxes, whereas the upstream pathway is dominated by linear Rossby wave dynamics. Importantly, there is a large degree of cancellation between the two pathways for some of the mechanisms before regime onset. The physical meaning of a regime-mean perspective before onset can thus be severely limited. Implications of our results for understanding predictability of blocked regimes are discussed. Further discussed are the limitations of projected tendencies in capturing the importance of moist-baroclinic growth, which tends to occur in regions where the amplitude of the regime pattern, and thus the projection onto it, is small. Finally, it is stressed that this study investigates the variability of the governing dynamics without prior empirical stratification of data by season or by type of regime transition. It is demonstrated, however, that our dynamics-centered approach does not merely reflect variability that is associated with these factors. The main modes of dynamical variability revealed herein and the large similarity of the blocked regimes in exhibiting this variability are thus significant results.

Pathways of Influence Between Northern Hemisphere Blocking and Stratospheric Polar Vortex Variability

AbstractWe apply a causal inference‐based framework to test and quantify previously suggested causal relationships between Northern Hemisphere blocking, upward wave‐activity fluxes and stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) variability using reanalysis data. We show that the influence of blocking on the polar vortex is entirely mediated by upward wave‐activity fluxes, as the classical view would suggest. However, the causal pathway is not completely straightforward. In contrast to the vortex‐weakening effect of European blocking, the vortex‐strengthening effect of west Pacific blocking on lower stratospheric wave‐activity fluxes is only partially mediated by upper tropospheric wave‐activity fluxes. In addition, only two‐thirds of the effect of upper tropospheric wave‐activity fluxes on polar vortex variability is mediated by lower stratospheric wave‐activity fluxes. We also show that sudden stratospheric warmings are not entirely explainable in terms of upward wave‐activity fluxes. These findings help clarify the pathways of influence between blocking and SPV variability.

Relation of Mid-High-Latitude Eurasian ISO to Ural Blocking Frequency and Their Co-Effect on Extreme Hot Events during Boreal Summer

Based on NCEP reanalysis daily data during 1979–2018, the spatiotemporal evolution of the 10–30-day atmospheric intraseasonal oscillations (ISO) at mid-high-latitude Eurasia and its effect on the Ural blocking frequency are investigated. The co-effect of the blocking and ISO on extreme hot event frequency is also investigated. The ISO exhibits two modes of eastward and westward propagation. During the eastward (westward) propagating mode, the northwest–southeast tilted quadrupole (east–west dipole) quasi-barotropic geopotential height anomaly coupled with the air temperature anomaly at the troposphere propagates southeastward (westward). The phase composite shows that, during both modes, the mid-high-latitude low-frequency Rossby wave trains significantly affect the frequency of the European blocking during the propagating journey. The most frequent European blocking appears in phase 2 during both the eastward- and westward- propagating mode. Compared with the situation without the Ural blocking, the blocking activity results in the positive geopotential height anomalies throughout Europe and north of 60° N in the Ural Mountains and the negative geopotential height anomalies in the south of 60° N in the Ural Mountains and north of the Japan Sea. The occurrence of Ural blocking is conducive to the occurrence of extreme high-temperature events in Europe and the high latitudes of the Ural Mountains, and a reduced frequency of extreme high-temperature events in the mid-latitudes of the Ural Mountains and north of the Japan Sea. Therefore, the Ural blocking activities significantly regulate the effect of the two propagating ISO modes on the extreme hot events over the middle and high latitudes of Eurasia.

Mitigating Climate Biases in the Midlatitude North Atlantic by Increasing Model Resolution: SST Gradients and Their Relation to Blocking and the Jet

Abstract Starting to resolve the oceanic mesoscale in climate models is a step change in model fidelity. This study examines how certain obstinate biases in the midlatitude North Atlantic respond to increasing resolution (from 1° to 0.25° in the ocean) and how such biases in sea surface temperature (SST) affect the atmosphere. Using a multimodel ensemble of historical climate simulations run at different horizontal resolutions, it is shown that a severe cold SST bias in the central North Atlantic, common to many ocean models, is significantly reduced with increasing resolution. The associated bias in the time-mean meridional SST gradient is shown to relate to a positive bias in low-level baroclinicity, while the cold SST bias causes biases also in static stability and diabatic heating in the interior of the atmosphere. The changes in baroclinicity and diabatic heating brought by increasing resolution lead to improvements in European blocking and eddy-driven jet variability. Across the multimodel ensemble a clear relationship is found between the climatological meridional SST gradients in the broader Gulf Stream Extension area and two aspects of the atmospheric circulation: the frequency of high-latitude blocking and the southern-jet regime. This relationship is thought to reflect the two-way interaction (with a positive feedback) between the respective oceanic and atmospheric anomalies. These North Atlantic SST anomalies are shown to be important in forcing significant responses in the midlatitude atmospheric circulation, including jet variability and the storm track. Further increases in oceanic and atmospheric resolution are expected to lead to additional improvements in the representation of Euro-Atlantic climate.

Characterizing renewable energy compound events across Europe using a logistic regression‐based approach

AbstractThe transition towards decarbonized power systems requires accounting for the impacts of the climate variability and climate change on renewable energy sources. With the growing share of wind and solar power in the European power system and their strong weather dependence, balancing the energy demand and supply becomes a great challenge. We characterize energy compound events, defined as periods of simultaneous low renewable production of wind and solar power, and high electricity demand. Using a logistic regression approach, we examine the influence of meteorological and atmospheric drivers on energy compound events. Moreover, we assess the spatial coherence of energy compound events that pose a major challenge within an interconnected power grid, as they can affect multiple countries simultaneously. On average, European countries are exposed to winter energy compound events more than twice per year. The combination of extremely low temperatures and low wind speeds is associated with a higher probability of occurrence of energy compound events. Furthermore, we show that blocked weather regimes have a major influence on energy compound events. In particular, Greenland and European blocking lead to widespread energy compound events that affect multiple countries at the same time. Our results highlight the relevance of weather regimes resulting in synchronous spatial energy compound events, which might pose a greater risk within a potential fully interconnected European grid.

Summer Precipitation Extremes over the Yellow River Loop Valley and Its link to European Blocking

Characteristics of extreme precipitation over Yellow River Loop Valley (YRLV) and links to European blocking are investigated in this study. Spatial and temporal analysis of extreme precipitation shows that it contributes more than 30% of the total summer precipitation in the YRLV and is characterized by a strong and short period of local rainfall. Most of the extreme rains in the YRLV occur in July and August. Two typical circulation patterns were identified using a k-means clustering method. The extreme precipitation results from the combined actions of intensified high pressure over northeast China (NECH) and the westward extension of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH). The intensified southerly flow of the amplified NECH strengthens the water vapor transport induced by the westward extension of the WPSH from the northwest Pacific or Bay of Bengal into the YRLV. The NECH is amplified by the wave energy propagating from European blocking via the Silk Road pattern (SRP). This is the subseasonal cause of extreme precipitation over the YRLV. The composited July and August mean 500 hPa geopotential anomaly pattern for extreme precipitation years shows a high-pressure anomaly over the European continent and a negative phase of the SRP. The former provides a background for the occurrence of European blocking, and the latter explains the preexistence of the NECH and provides a linkage between the activity of European blocking and the subseasonal evolution of the NECH. Thus, the interannual variation in the extreme precipitation over the YRLV is mainly reflected by the phase of the SRP and the stationary waves over Europe.

Quantifying climate model representation of the wintertime Euro-Atlantic circulation using geopotential-jet regimes

Abstract. Even the most advanced climate models struggle to reproduce the observed wintertime circulation of the atmosphere over the North Atlantic and western Europe. During winter, the large-scale motions of this particularly challenging region are dominated by eddy-driven and highly non-linear flows, whose low-frequency variability is often studied from the perspective of regimes – a small number of qualitatively distinct atmospheric states. Poor representation of regimes associated with persistent atmospheric blocking events, or variations in jet latitude, degrades the ability of models to correctly simulate extreme events. In this paper we leverage a recently developed hybrid approach – which combines both jet and geopotential height data – to assess the representation of regimes in 8400 years of historical climate simulations drawn from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) experiments, CMIP5, CMIP6, and HighResMIP. We show that these geopotential-jet regimes are particularly suited to the analysis of climate data, with considerable reductions in sampling variability compared to classical regime approaches. We find that CMIP6 has a considerably improved spatial regime structure, and a more trimodal eddy-driven jet, relative to CMIP5, but it still struggles with under-persistent regimes and too little European blocking when compared to reanalysis. Reduced regime persistence can be understood, at least in part, as a result of jets that are too fast and eddy feedbacks on the jet stream that are too weak – structural errors that do not noticeably improve in higher-resolution models.

Impact of the COVID-19 Lockdown in a European Regional Monitoring Network (Spain): Are We Free from Pollution Episodes?

The impact of the lockdown, during the period from March to June in 2020, upon the air quality of the Basque Country in northern Spain is analyzed. The evaluation accounts for the meteorology of the period. Daily and sub-daily analysis of aerosol and ozone records show that the territory was repeatedly affected by episodes of pollutants from outer regions. Three episodes of PM10 and ten of PM2.5 were caused by transported anthropogenic European sulfates, African dust, and wildland fires. The region, with a varied orographic climatology, shows high and diverse industrial activity. Urban and interurban road traffic of the region decreased by 49% and 53%, respectively, whereas industrial activity showed a lower reduction of 20%. Consequently, the average concentrations of NO2 in the cities during the period fell to 12.4 µg·m−3 (−45%). Ozone showed up to five exceedances of the WHOAQG for the daily maximum 8-h average in both rural and urban sites, associated with transport through France and the Bay of Biscay, under periods of European blocking anticyclones. However, averages showed a moderate decrease (−11%) in rural environments, in line with the precursor reductions, and disparate changes in the cities, which reproduced the weekend effect of their historical records. The PM10 decreased less than expected (−10% and −21%, in the urban and rural environments, respectively), probably caused by the modest decrease of industrial activity around urban sites and favorable meteorology for secondary aerosol formation, which could also influence the lower changes observed in the PM2.5 (−1% and +3% at the urban and rural sites, respectively). Consequently, in a future low NOx traffic emission scenario, the inter-regional PM and ozone control will require actions across various sectors, including the industry and common pollution control strategies.

Contrasting interannual impacts of European and Greenland blockings on the winter North Atlantic storm track

Based on the daily reanalysis, the present study examines the interannual influences of the European blocking (EB) and Greenland blocking (GB) frequencies on the winter North Atlantic storm track (WNAST) intensity. There are contrasting relationships between the two types of atmospheric blockings and the WNAST. The EB and GB frequencies are significantly positively and negatively related to the WNAST intensity, respectively. Composite analysis shows a meridional dipole of the WNAST anomalies associated with both frequent EB and GB. The area of EB-related positive WNAST anomalies is obviously larger than that of the negative anomalies, which directly results in their in-phase relationship. However, the amplitudes of the GB-related negative WNAST anomalies that are larger than those of the positive anomalies directly lead to their out-of-phase relationship. The EB-related intensified WNAST is dependent on the enhanced baroclinic energy conversion and the strengthened atmospheric baroclinicity induced by the anomalous westerly winds on the northern side of the EB-related anticyclone. In contrast, the GB-related weakened WNAST is determined by the attenuated atmospheric baroclinicity and baroclinic energy conversion on the southern flank of the WNAST climatology.

Year‐round sub‐seasonal forecast skill for Atlantic–European weather regimes

AbstractWeather regime forecasts are a prominent use case of sub‐seasonal prediction in the midlatitudes. A systematic evaluation and understanding of year‐round sub‐seasonal regime forecast performance is still missing, however. Here we evaluate the representation of and forecast skill for seven year‐round Atlantic–European weather regimes in sub‐seasonal reforecasts from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts. Forecast calibration improves regime frequency biases and forecast skill most strongly in summer, but scarcely in winter, due to considerable large‐scale flow biases in summer. The average regime skill horizon in winter is about 5 days longer than in summer and spring, and 3 days longer than in autumn. The Zonal Regime and Greenland Blocking tend to have the longest year‐round skill horizon, which is driven by their high persistence in winter. The year‐round skill is lowest for the European Blocking, which is common for all seasons but most pronounced in winter and spring. For the related, more northern Scandinavian Blocking, the skill is similarly low in winter and spring but higher in summer and autumn. We further show that the winter average regime skill horizon tends to be enhanced following a strong stratospheric polar vortex (SPV), but reduced following a weak SPV. Likewise, the year‐round average regime skill horizon tends to be enhanced following phases 4 and 7 of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) but reduced following phase 2, driven by winter but also autumn and spring. Our study thus reveals promising potential for year‐round sub‐seasonal regime predictions. Further model improvements can be achieved by reduction of the considerable large‐scale flow biases in summer, better understanding and modeling of blocking in the European region, and better exploitation of the potential predictability provided by weak SPV states and specific MJO phases in winter and the transition seasons.