European Bank Research Articles

The impact of financial tightening on firm productivity: Maturity matters

We analyse how the combination of firm-level financial fragility and country-level financial constraints affects productivity growth in France, Italy and Spain. We first show that, although high leverage weighs on firm-level productivity in all three countries, more leveraged firms seem to suffer more from financial constraints only in Italy. In a second step, we show that this apparent specificity of Italian firms is related to the relatively short maturity of their debt. These results highlight the importance of liquidity constraints during periods of financial stress such as the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 or the European sovereign debt and banking crisis of 2011-13.

Assessing the performance of banks through an improved sigma-mu multicriteria analysis approach

The σ-μ efficiency methodology has been recently introduced for multicriteria evaluation problems, based on the framework of Stochastic Multi-Attribute Acceptability analysis (SMAA), to address the uncertainty in the performance of a set of decision alternatives. The methodology builds, iteratively, a set of Pareto-Koopmans efficiency frontiers, which are used to assess the alternatives with respect to their expected performance and its variability, measured across different scenarios for the weights of the evaluation criteria. This paper presents an improved algorithmic implementation of this methodology that provides results that are consistent with the Pareto dominance relation between the alternatives. The proposed approach is employed to evaluate the performance of a sample of European banks which participated in the European stress tests conducted by the European Banking Authority, over the last five years available (2017–2021). The performance and efficiency of the banks is analyzed using financial criteria along with environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors. Results from comprehensive and disaggregated analysis reveal performance disparities among banks in financial and ESG factors, highlighting the influence of country-specific green policies and individual bank practices. Valuable for the banking sector and regulators, the findings help identify operational inefficiencies and propose areas for performance enhancement, operational improvement, and innovation, with a focus on green practices.

Enforcement actions against European banks in the years 2005–2022. Do financial penalties imposed on European banks follow any patterns?

AbstractThis study aims to identify, by year and over the entire period under study (2005–2022), the countries with the most restrictive bank sanctioning policies in terms of amounts and numbers of penalties to point out the most active institutions in terms of imposing penalties, and to determine the regularities governing the process of imposing these burdens. Using linear ordering methods, groups of countries with similar levels of supervisory stringency identified with one of the supervisory actions, which are financial penalties, are distinguished. A total of 53 banks (the 50 largest European banks and an additional three banks designated as G-SIIs by the EBA) are identified from a constructed database of more than 300 European banks with penalties imposed between 2005 and 2022. The study’s conclusions indicate that the frequency of penalties cannot be clearly equated with the restrictiveness of supervisory institutions, as evidenced by the example of Hungary (multiplication of small penalties). The positioning of countries regarding the number of penalties, their value and grouping using linear ordering allows the conclusion that highly developed countries are characterized by relatively high restrictiveness. The results also show the difference between the Anglo-Saxon and continental models. The analysis in this article is the first comprehensive study of penalties imposed on banks by different types of institutions in 36 jurisdictions from the pre-GFC period up to the year in which the COVID-19 pandemic expired. The multi-faceted approach also provides a basis for formulating practical regulatory implications by redirecting sanctioning policy towards banks to their management and reducing the frequency of penalties while increasing their severity.

From Menace to Mundane: Moral Hazard and the Politics of the European Central Bank's Government Bond Purchases

AbstractDuring the Eurozone's sovereign debt crisis, the ideational consensus that shaped the foundation of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) was destabilized by disagreement on unconventional monetary policies (UMPs), specifically government bond purchases. In the ECB's 2021 strategy review, however, UMPs were confirmed as standard elements of the European Central Bank's (ECB) toolbox. What happened? One argument frequently presented to question the legitimacy of UMPs is that they undermine the prior objective of the EMU of avoiding moral hazard. We analyse the politics of UMPs by focusing upon how top officials in four major Eurozone central banks have discursively constructed the relationship between the ECB's purchase of sovereign debt and moral hazard. We find that top central bank officials aligned to a large degree on the non‐necessary causal relationship between government bond purchases and moral hazard, which reinforced its legitimacy and eventual acceptance as ‘conventional’.

The digital euro: a materialization of (in)security

The European Central Bank (ECB) has entered the preparation phase for the potential issuance of a digital euro. The digital euro under consideration represents a retail central bank digital currency (CBDC), a digital representation of central bank money that is intended for use by the general public. This article foregrounds the digital euro as an infrastructure that furthers European security ambitions. It argues that the development of the digital euro is a materialization of European (in)security rationales that aim to secure pan-European financial transactions amid growing geopolitical tensions. It focuses on the development of the technology and analyses how central bankers’ scenarios of the future manifest in the anticipated design and prototypes. While the provision of a financial infrastructure is the most decisive security-related implication of the digital euro, the introduction of a new form of public money is the decisive financial feature with potentially wide-ranging implications for banks. Although the ECB seeks to balance the interests of banks and other financial actors in the development of the digital euro, its plans are still met with criticism. Finally, the article argues that the ECB exerts itself more explicitly than before as a geopolitical actor in its own regard.

Do ECB's rate hikes have spillover effects on the Hungarian BUBOR and the EUR/HUF exchange rate? A five‐variable VAR model approach using the Diebold‐Yilmaz spillover table

AbstractWe intend to show the directional volatility spillovers between the European short term interbank lending rates (3‐month Euro Interbank Offered Rate [EURIBOR] and Euro Short‐Term Rate [ESTR]) and the Hungarian Budapest Interbank Offered Rate (BUBOR) and Euro‐Hungarian Forint exchange rate. To determine the extent to which the variables affect each other's volatilities we build a five‐variable vector autoregression (VAR) and determine the spillover table like in Diebold‐Yilmaz's 2012 work. This methodology is preferred to a simple impulse response function (IRF) because we manage to avoid the problem of non‐orthogonal innovations via the generalized forecast error variance decomposition framework. The issue of variable ordering, therefore, does not arise. We focus on three episodes of increased volatility in Hungarian and European short‐term interest rates: Q3–Q4 of 2019, Q1 of 2020 and Q3 of 2022. These episodes correspond to volatility spikes in EU markets that to some extent had a measurable spillover effect on Hungarian interbank rates. We find that on average, across the entire sample of 957 observations, about 6.3% of the volatility forecast error variance in all five European and Hungarian variables comes from spillovers. The total and directional spillovers over the sample are extremely low. We conclude that the European Central Bank's surprise policy decisions have a marginal impact on Hungarian interbank rates. We also find that BUBOR is primarily a net receiver of spillovers from the MAX short‐term government bond benchmark rather than the EURIBOR—this disproved our initial considerations.

Is there an optimal level of leverage? The case of banks and non-bank institutions in Europe

In this paper, we evaluate whether banks and non-banks size and systemic risk are affected by their level of leverage. We implement a threshold analysis to a sample of European traditional banks and non-banks (Finance services and Real Estate Finance Services) over 2006:1-2019:4. We find that Finance Services show positive co-movements between leverage and size, independently of the level of leverage, while for traditional banks the level of leverage matters. Both banks and non-banks show positive correlation between leverage and systemic risk. During periods of crisis, SRISK measure of systemic risk allows to identify an optimal level of leverage.

Curse and blessing: The effect of the dividend ban on euro area bank valuations and syndicated lending

At the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, the European Central Bank issued a strong recommendation towards banks to halt dividend payouts. The goal of this de facto dividend ban was to boost banks' capital to ensure the supply of credit. However, given the importance of dividends for investors, this unprecedented measure is likely to have impacted bank valuations. Hence, banks may have chosen to preserve their higher capital buffers to boost payouts after the lifting of the ban, rendering the intended positive effect on credit supply a priori uncertain. We first investigate the effect of the dividend ban announcement on euro area banks' valuations and find a significantly negative impact. Second, we show that banks significantly expanded credit supply in the syndicated loan market, without counteracting effect of the negative stock market reaction. Our findings are corroborated when we exploit the multi-bank nature of syndicated loans in a within-loan setup.

FinSentGPT: A universal financial sentiment engine?

We present FinSentGPT, a financial sentiment prediction model based on a fine-tuned version of the artificial intelligence language model, ChatGPT. To assess the model’s effectiveness, we analyse a sample of US media news and a multi-language dataset of European Central Bank Monetary Policy Decisions. Our findings demonstrate that FinSentGPT’s sentiment classification ability aligns well with a prominent English-language finance sentiment model, surpasses an established alternative machine learning model, and is capable of predicting sentiment across various languages. Consequently, we offer preliminary evidence that advanced large-language AI models can facilitate flexible and contextual financial sentiment determination, transcending language barriers.

Off-balance-sheet policies to the rescue: The role of statistical expertise for European public–private partnerships

Off-balance-sheet policies are an important but understudied phenomenon that emerged from a technical subtlety in the calculation of public debt statistics. Taking the case of an exemplary European off-balance-sheet policy, public–private partnerships (PPPs), this paper analyzes the technocratic processes that allow the emergence of such debt-neutral instruments. In the aftermath of the sovereign debt crisis, off-balance-sheet policies have become an important policy tool for Member States in the European Economic and Monetary Union, enabling them to strike a balance between the perceived ‘public investment gap’ and the mantra of fiscal consolidation. The case study shows how the lack of political solutions to Europe’s investment-consolidation conundrum leaves it to technical experts to find workable solutions within the existing rules. The off-balance-sheet status of PPPs came under threat in 2014 but was reaffirmed through a coordinated effort by two strange bedfellows: the European Investment Bank (EIB), a promoter of PPPs, and Eurostat, the European authority responsible for public debt and deficit indicators. I argue that Eurostat and the EIB have entered into strategic cooperation to increase each other’s room for manoeuvre, diffuse political pressure and avoid bureaucratic overload. This paper contributes to a better understanding of the role of technocrats and their expertise, which shape the mutual relations between fiscal constraints and financialized investment policies in the European investor states.

The Italian Development Bank: A Dynamic View of CDP’s Public Mission

ABSTRACT The traditional public purpose of development banks is to promote economic development by mitigating market failures in the provision of finance to public and private initiatives. However, the dynamic theory of public banks suggests that development banks functions and actions are not predetermined, but rather depend on the dynamic economic, social and political context in which they are embedded. In this paper, we focus on the case of Cassa Depositi e Prestiti (CDP), and analyse how its mission expanded since its privatization in 2003, till and further its recognition as the Italian National Development Bank in 2015. We find that CDP range of action expanded rapidly under political, economic and institutional pressures (especially from European institutions), sometimes beyond what is traditionally expected of public banks. We also analyse how CDP corporate governance evolved, highlighting strengths and weaknesses with respect to other European Development banks.

The “Benefits” of being small: Loose fiscal policy in the European Monetary Union

Independent central banks typically counteract positive fiscal shocks that would otherwise increase the inflation rate above the target. In a theoretical model, we show that, in a monetary union, this mechanism implies weaker responses to national fiscal shocks because the overarching central bank must account for the fiscal policies of all members. The model highlights that the response is especially weak for small members, given their marginal impact on the union’s aggregate inflation rate. Empirically, we exploit the exogenous variation in elections to show that the European Central Bank reacts more vigorously to fiscal shocks from larger countries. We then provide evidence that small countries take advantage of this; they engage more in fiscal expansions during election years than large countries. In an extension, we discuss, both theoretically and empirically, why the difference between small and large countries disappears in times of crisis.

Does board knowledge matter for ESG performance in the European banking industry?

AbstractThis study investigates the influence of the knowledge endowment of directors on the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance in the banking industry. Applying the generalized method of moments (GMM) two‐step analysis, we analyzed a sample of 115 banks listed in Europe between 2014 and 2022. Building on the Resource Based View and Resource Dependence Theory, we find empirical evidence that board knowledge in terms of cultural, industrial, and financial background affects ESG performance in the banking industry, providing several contributions to the extant knowledge management and corporate governance literature. The research is intended to stimulate the development of practical knowledge management strategies inside companies to improve directors' decision‐making toward corporate social responsibility‐oriented initiatives.

The Euro Area 12: A Comparative Assessment of Its Member States in the Period 1998–2022

The primary objectives of this research are to compare the economic performance of the Member States (MS) in the Euro Area 12 (EA-12) of the European Union (EU) that served as net contributors and net recipients of its budget during the period 1998–2022. The comparison focuses on aspects related to economic growth and the business cycle, exploring the presence of hysteresis. To achieve these objectives, a novel approach is employed, which integrates the analysis of both growth and cycles. This approach involves using the Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations (SURE) model to estimate a translog production frontier and assess the impact of lagging output gaps on the potential output or capacity for each of the MS considered. The data used to estimate each frontier and analyze growth decomposition consist of quarterly data filtered using the Kalman filter. The results reveal that lagging output gaps, occurring one or two quarters prior, significantly affect the potential output or capacity of the EA-12 MS, thereby supporting the existence of hysteresis. However, the impacts appear to be minimal. Furthermore, the research concludes that changes in total factor productivity (TFP), mainly due to technical change, play a more crucial role in the growth of MS that are net contributors to the EU budget. Conversely, total factor accumulation (TFA), mainly physical capital accumulation, has a more pronounced impact on the growth of MS net recipients from the EU budget. Interestingly, the heterogeneity observed among the EA-12 MS extends beyond the simple division between net contributors and net recipients of the EU budget. This heterogeneity raises questions about the European Central Bank’s (ECB) ability to stabilize the economies of these various MS solely through conventional monetary policy.

An Analysis of the Banking Sectors: The effect of Ecosystem Performance on Financial Stability

With an emphasis on the effects of regional differences and the COVID19 epidemic, this study examines the link between Environmental Performance Index (EPI) ratings and the financial performance of European banks while considering the role of governance and law. Our study, which uses panel data regressions spanning five years and 71 listed banks in 21 European nations, shows a negative link between EPI scores and bank performance, which is most noticeable in Southern Europe. These results highlight the significance of taking regional variations in bank size and characteristics into account when assessing EPI performance in the banking industry.

Artificial intelligence and central bank communication: the case of the ECB

ABSTRACT We examine whether artificial intelligence (AI) can decipher the European Central Bank’s communication. Employing 1769 inter-meeting verbal communication events of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council members, we construct an AI-based indicator evaluating whether the communication is leaning towards easing, tightening, or maintaining the monetary policy stance. We find that our AI-based indicator replicates reasonably similar indicators based on human expert judgement but at much higher speed and at much lower costs. Using our AI-based indicator and a number of robustness checks, our regression results show that ECB communication matters for future monetary policy even after controlling for financial market expectations and lagged monetary policy decisions.

Generation of three isogenic, gene-edited iPSC lines carrying the APOE-Christchurch mutation into the three common APOE variants: APOE2Ch, APOE3Ch and APOE4Ch

Late-onset Alzheimer’s disease (AD) has become the paradigm of a non-mendelian complex neurodegenerative disease, for which a major genetic determinant is known, the APOE locus. A rare APOE variant named Christchurch (APOEch) yielding a missense mutation from Arginine to Serine at amino acid 136, has been suggested to exert a protective effect in an individual carrying the most penetrant form of Familial AD (Paisa mutation in PSEN1 gene, E280A). We describe here a new set of induced pluripotent stem cell (iPSC) lines, where the Christchurch mutation (Ch) has been introduced by gene editing into the APOE locus of three isogenic iPSC lines carrying the more common APOE variants (APOE 2/2, APOE 3/3, and an APOE 4/4) in homozygosity. Brain cells derived from these iPSC lines will enable a better understanding of APOE biology in general and facilitate the study of how the Christchurch variant affects the function of each APOE genotype. This set of iPSC lines are globally available via the European Bank of iPSCs, EBiSC.org.

The European energy crisis, the Dutch TTF, and the market correction mechanism: a financial markets perspective

Abstract In September 2022, the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) prices spiked at unprecedented levels. For various reasons, including the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Europe was facing an energy crisis: gas supply was significantly reduced while demand remained unchanged. Policymakers responded with a variety of measures, including regulatory interventions on the TTF market. While seeking to improve the situation in the ‘real world economy’, these measures have an important financial regulatory angle. This article investigates the potential impact of these interventions, in particular of the Market Correction Mechanism, on the wholesale gas market from a financial markets perspective. Considering, amongst others, observations from the EU Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators, the European Securities and Markets Authority, and the European Central Bank, it appears that these interventions may have unintended negative consequences in light of the functioning and attractiveness of the Capital Markets Union and achieving strategic autonomy.

Quantitative Easing, Bond Risk Premia and the Exchange Rate in a Small Open Economy

We assess the impact of large-scale asset purchases, commonly known as quantitative easing (QE), conducted by Sveriges Riksbank and the European Central Bank (ECB) on bond risk premia in the Swedish government bond market. Using a novel arbitrage-free dynamic term structure model of nominal and real bond prices that accounts for bond-specific safety premia, we find that Sveriges Riksbank’s bond purchases raised inflation and short-rate expectations, lowered nominal and real term premia and inflation risk premia, and increased nominal bond safety premia, suggestive of signaling, portfolio rebalance, and safe asset scarcity effects. Furthermore, we document spillover effects of ECB’s QE programs on Swedish bond markets that are similar to the Swedish QE effects only after controlling for exchange rate fluctuations, highlighting the importance of exchange rate dynamics in the transmission of QE spillover effects.

The Temporal Structuring of Corporate Sustainability

Research on corporate sustainability has started to acknowledge the role of temporality in creating more sustainable organizations. Yet, these advances tend to treat firms as monolithic and we have little understanding of how different temporal patterns throughout an organization shape perceptions of and actions toward sustainability. Building on studies highlighting how the temporal structures of work shape employee engagement with different organizational processes and issues, we seek to answer: How does the temporality of work practices structure perceptions of corporate sustainability throughout the firm? Using data from an ethnography of a small European sustainable bank, we provide an account of the variety of ways in which employees in different departments perceive the bank and how they engage with sustainability. We then go on to show how the temporal structures of work practices within different departments help explain some divergence in perceptions of sustainability. Our study highlights the variegation of temporal structures in organizational processes of meaning-making and its role for a better understanding of the efforts to make corporations more sustainable.