European Agricultural Systems Research Articles

Improving result-based schemes for nature conservation in agricultural landscapes—challenges and best practices from selected European countries

AbstractResult-based payment schemes (RBPS) offer a more flexible, innovative and performance-oriented approach to biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services provision in agricultural landscapes, compared to action-based schemes. However, uptake by farmers remains low, likely due to challenges such as lack of appropriate advice, uncertainties related to monitoring of the results and the risk of not receiving the payment. Since detailed information on the design and monitoring of RBPS is often not available in the scientific literature, we analysed 39 RBPS identified across peer-reviewed studies, grey literature, and websites from Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Ireland, the United Kingdom and Spain. This overview highlights the benefits of implementing RBPS in different European agricultural systems, identifies key design features of current schemes that could enhance adoption and addresses shortcomings such as current limitations in the biodiversity and environmental targets considered, monitoring costs and financing. We also provide an outlook on how to improve RBPS to unlock their full potential, especially in view of increasing uncertainties due to climate change.

A web‐based operational tool for the identification of best practices in European agricultural systems

AbstractUnder the same perspective of the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 15.3 aiming to restore degraded land and soil, one of the current priorities of the new Common Agriculture Policy (CAP) is to overcome the serious environmental problems raised by intensive agriculture. Despite the steps forward guaranteed by new technologies and innovations (e.g., IoT, precision agriculture), the availability of real operational tools, which could help the member states fulfil the high requirements and expectations of the new CAP and SDGs, is still lacking. To fill this gap, in the H2020 LandSupport project, the web‐based best practice tool was developed to identify, on‐the‐fly, optimized agronomic solutions to help achieve land‐degradation neutrality. The tool's core is the ARMOSA process‐based model, which dynamically simulates the continuum soil–plant–atmosphere, combining several cropping systems, crops, nitrogen fertilization rates, tillage solutions, and crop residue management for specific regions of interest. It provides a synthetic “Best Practice index” to identify the optimized local solutions, which combines the production, nitrate leaching, and SOC_change, according to the end‐user dynamic requests. The tool was implemented for three case studies: Marchfeld Region in Austria, Zala County in Hungary, and Campania Region in Italy, which are representative of a variety of different pedoclimatic conditions. In the present work, we report three possible cases of use in supporting best practices aiming toward soil and water conservation: (i) crop production optimization; (ii) impact of management practices (i.e., cover crops) over soil carbon; (iii) lowering the impact of nitrate leaching.

On the definition of pesticide-free crop production systems

Pesticide-free but non-organic production systems have been recently introduced in public and private programs in Europe. However, a key challenge is to define what ‘pesticide-free’ comprises and means. This paper aims to give insights in and critical reflections on the definition and regulation of pesticide-free crop production systems in real-world programs. To this end, we review four examples of public and private pesticide-free production programs in European crop production (i.e. from France, Germany and Switzerland). Our analysis reveals several semantic and regulatory inconsistencies and potential confusion that exists around the term pesticide-free crop production, i.e. we find that it is far from clear-cut what pesticide-free production systems are. For example, programs differ with respect to which part of the crop management cycle is regulated. Moreover, all programs offer various exceptions for pesticide use. Definitions and regulations differ widely across case studies. For example, to participate in governmental programs on pesticide-free production farmers in one country have different requirements than in another. Moreover, governmental regulations not match with those in private programs and vice versa. Pesticide-free production programs can be a useful and viable addition to European agricultural and food systems. However, based on the here presented insights, we formulate eight recommendations for policy and industry how to clarify, align and harmonize pesticide-free crop production.

Emerging threats and opportunities to managed bee species in European agricultural systems: a horizon scan

Managed bee species provide essential pollination services that contribute to food security worldwide. However, managed bees face a diverse array of threats and anticipating these, and potential opportunities to reduce risks, is essential for the sustainable management of pollination services. We conducted a horizon scanning exercise with 20 experts from across Europe to identify emerging threats and opportunities for managed bees in European agricultural systems. An initial 63 issues were identified, and this was shortlisted to 21 issues through the horizon scanning process. These ranged from local landscape-level management to geopolitical issues on a continental and global scale across seven broad themes—Pesticides & pollutants, Technology, Management practices, Predators & parasites, Environmental stressors, Crop modification, and Political & trade influences. While we conducted this horizon scan within a European context, the opportunities and threats identified will likely be relevant to other regions. A renewed research and policy focus, especially on the highest-ranking issues, is required to maximise the value of these opportunities and mitigate threats to maintain sustainable and healthy managed bee pollinators within agricultural systems.

A Meta-Analysis Approach to Estimate the Effect of Cover Crops on the Grain Yield of Succeeding Cereal Crops within European Cropping Systems

Farming practices such as cover cropping, crop rotation systems, and soil tillage practices, along with climate conditions and soil type play important roles in determining final crop production. Numerous empirical studies have documented the heterogeneous effects of cover crops on the yield of successive crops, exhibiting variations across diverse regions, climate regimes, soil characteristics, cover crop types, and agricultural management practices. A meta-analysis was conducted to comprehensively summarize and evaluate the impact of cover crops (CCs) in the agroecosystem. The main goal of the study is to promote a transition towards more sustainable cereal crop production by exploring the potential of currently unexploited CCs in Europe. The study demonstrated that the incorporation of legume CCs resulted in the most pronounced and statistically significant increase in grain yield among cereal crops. CCs from the Brassicaceae family also demonstrated a positive impact on grain yield under southern European climates. Cover cropping had a positive effect on the subsequent cash crop under conventional tillage practice. A positive, but not significant impact, was detected under both conservation tillage practices, which include reduced tillage (RT) and no-till (NT). The result of the study suggests that NT practices are more suitable for Northern Europe, while RT practices are preferable for Southern Europe zones. This study indicates that the adoption of cover cropping represents a viable and effective agronomic strategy for enhancing grain yield in cereal crops cultivated across European agricultural systems.

Assessing the Impact of Farm-Management Practices on Ecosystem Services in European Agricultural Systems: A Rapid Evidence Assessment

Many farm-management practices focus on maximizing production, while others better reconcile production with the regulation of ecological processes and sociocultural identity through the provisioning of ecosystem services (ESs). Though many studies have evaluated the performance of management practices against ES supply, these studies often focused on only a few practices simultaneously. Here, we incorporate 23 distinct management practices in a rapid evidence assessment to draw more comprehensive conclusions on their supply potential across 14 ESs in European agriculture. The results are visualized using performance indicators that quantify the ES-supply potential of a given management practice. In total, 172 indicators are calculated, among which cover crops are found to have the strongest positive impact on pollination-supply potential, while extensive livestock management is found to have the strongest negative impact for the supply potential for habitat creation/protection. The indicators also provide insight into the state of the peer-reviewed literature. At both the farm and territorial levels, the literature noticeably fails to evaluate cultural services. Further, disparities between the number of indicators composed at the farm and territorial levels indicate a systematic bias in the literature toward the assessment of smaller spatial levels.

High Inter- and Intra- Diversity of Amino Acid Content and Protein Digestibility Disclosed in Five Cool Season Legume Species with a Growing Market Demand

Legumes have been sought as alternative protein sources to ensure food security and environmental sustainability. Characterizing their protein content and quality, including in underutilized grain legumes, e.g., grass pea, gives value to the legumes' underexplored variability. To fill the gap of knowledge in legumes' protein quality, for the first time, five extensive collections of cool season grain legumes were cropped under the same environmental conditions and further analyzed. Multivariate analysis showed the existent intra- and inter-species variability. The legume species with the highest protein content, grass pea, Lathyrus sativus (LS), was not the one with the overall highest individual amino acids content and in vitro protein digestibility. With these last characteristics lentil, Lens culinaris (LC), was highlighted. The highest average values of arginine (Arg), glutamic acid (Glu), and threonine (Thr) were found in LS and Vicia faba (VF). Cicer arietinum (CA) stood out as the species with the highest values of Thr and methionine (Met). Regarding the in vitro protein digestibility (IVPD), LC, followed by Pisum sativum (PS) and LS, were the legume species with the highest values. Ultimately, this study bought to the fore legume species that are not commonly used in western diets but have high adaptability to the European agricultural systems.

The Effects of Cover Crops on Multiple Environmental Sustainability Indicators—A Review

Cover crops have been introduced in European agricultural systems due to their multiple agro-ecological services and environmental benefits, which do not necessarily affect profitability. Our paper follows a systematic literature review approach to highlight the results of 51 studies on the effects of adopting cover crops. We used a list of 41 agri-environmental sustainability indicators to present the different impacts of cover crops in European pedoclimatic situations. Herein, we review the positive effects of cover crops on agri-environmental sustainability (e.g., reduced soil erosion and nitrate leaching, higher carbon sequestration and soil quality, biodiversity enhancement, and reduced mineral fertilizer requirement), but also the more variable effects associated with the use of cover crops (e.g., management and interest for farm economics, nutrient and water competition with cash crops, and improved GHG balance, even if N20 emissions are slightly increased). Our review highlights these synergies among the sustainability indicators. More research data are needed on the multiple effects of cover crops in the context of diverse site-specific conditions and farm-management practices, especially between the traditional positive effects of cover crops (i.e., soil C sequestration and fertilizer savings) and their effects on climate change (i.e., GHG net balance and potential effects on global warming).

Diversifying European agricultural systems by intercropping

Cropping system diversification is a key factor in developing more sustainable cropping and food systems. The agroecological practice of intercropping, meaning the simultaneous cultivation of two or more species in the same field, has recently gained renewed interest as a means of ecological intensification in European agricultural research. We discuss some recent research developments regarding 1) intercropping for ecological intensification in agroecological and conventional cropping systems, 2) studies on nitrogen resource use by cereal-grain legume intercropping cultivation, 3) the role of intercropping in the management of biotic stressors, especially weeds, and 4) intercropping as a means of creating cropping systems that are more resilient to the abiotic and biotic stress associated with climate change. Finally, we propose methods for the greater adoption of intercropping in European agriculture by unlocking farming systems from upstream and downstream barriers, with the aim of developing more sustainable agricultural and food systems.

To what extent does the European common agricultural policy affect key landscape determinants of biodiversity?

Agricultural intensification continues to threaten habitat and biological diversity in farmland. In Europe, the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) has established several measures to support biodiversity-fostering elements such as landscape features, semi-natural habitats and extensive land uses, together referred to as Green and Blue Infrastructure (GBI). However, CAP measures’ effectiveness to support GBI has not been accurately evaluated yet. We assess GBI occurrence across a variety of European agricultural systems covering a gradient of farming intensity and analyse to what extent the CAP is supporting their presence by enhancing farmer's awareness and the uptake of measures that foster GBI. We carried out habitat surveys in 115 Landscape Test Squares (LTS) of 500m × 500m in six case study areas, including arable land, pastures and mixed farming systems in Spain, Germany and Bulgaria. We mapped GBI including small landscape elements, in-field elements (both semi-natural and productive) and connectivity features. We used historical imagery to map changes on GBI occurrence in LTS from 2012 to 2018. We also used questionnaires with farmers and stakeholders on their GBI awareness and compared their answers to elements mapped. Results showed that landscape and in-field GBI occurrence was higher in extensive than in intensive farming systems regardless of the region, whereas the opposite was found for connectivity features (e.g. grassy strips). The analysis of habitat changes showed a small increase of certain biodiversity-fostering in-field GBI, but no substantial change in connectivity features or landscape elements. Moreover, a significant reduction of valuable GBI like grasslands was observed. There were several mismatches between the patterns of GBI identified by farmers and stakeholders and their mapped abundances. Our results indicate that the CAP has not substantially increased the availability of biodiversity-fostering GBI in these regions and that adopted features were mostly related to neutral or negative effects on biodiversity. Farmers’ perception of GBI features seems driven by production management decisions rather than by biodiversity concerns.

Bridging the Gap Between Biofuels and Biodiversity Through Monetizing Environmental Services of Miscanthus Cultivation

AbstractCarbon neutrality in the transport sector is a key challenge for the growing bioeconomy as the share of biofuels has stagnated over the past decade. This can be attributed to basic economics and a lack of a robust market for these technologies. Consequently, more sustainable biomass supply concepts are required that reduce negative impacts on the environment and at the same time promote environmental services for sustainable agricultural cropping systems including erosion prevention, soil fertility improvement, greenhouse gas mitigation, and carbon sequestration. One promising concept is the cultivation of perennial biomass crops such as Miscanthus (Miscanthus Andersson) as biofuel feedstock. In this study, the multiple environmental services provided by Miscanthus are first explored and subsequently monetized. Then the integration of Miscanthus cultivation for biomass production into European agricultural systems is assessed. One hectare of Miscanthus provides society with environmental services to a value of 1,200 to 4,183 € a−1. These services are even more pronounced when cultivation takes place on marginal agricultural land. The integration of Miscanthus into existing agricultural practices aids both conservation and further optimization of socio‐economic welfare and landscape diversification. As these environmental services are more beneficial to the public than the Miscanthus farmers, subsidies are required to close the gap between biofuels and biodiversity that are calculated based on the provision of environmental services. Similar approaches to that developed in this study may be suitable for the implementation of other biomass cropping systems and therefore help foster the transition to a bioeconomy.

Effect of Nitrogen-fixing Microorganisms and Amino Acid-based Biostimulants on Perennial Ryegrass

Due to restrictions on pesticide and nitrogen use in high-input European agricultural systems, many of the biostimulants used in horticulture are being incorporated into turfgrass management programs—although often with little understanding. A set of experiments was carried out on perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne) cultivated in pots in a greenhouse in 2013 and 2014 to test the effect of three biostimulants: two composed of nitrifying bacteria (B1 and B2), and the other a mixture of amino acids, polysaccharides, nitrogen, and micronutrients (B3). Apart from the biostimulant treatment, nutritional stress was incorporated into the study to demonstrate if biostimulants could temporarily replace the fertilization role and so lessen the environmental impact. Turfgrass treated with B1 resulted in an increase in quality compared with untreated turf, and the positive effect lasted 2 and 3 months in 2013 and 2014, respectively. Additionally, an extended benefit was observed when the B1 interval application was longer, even temporarily replacing fertilization when applied on stressed turfgrass. The B2 produced similar results to B1, the effect was longer, and the turf exhibited a darker color—although it caused phytotoxicity at the tip of the leaves. The B3 led to a beneficial effect on turfgrass, especially under nutritional stress; it showed a better quality, darker green color, and more growth and yield than untreated turf (despite adding less nitrogen than during either mineral fertilizer treatment). Overall results show that the tested biostimulants increase turfgrass quality even when inducing a nutritional stress.

Traditional orchard Management in the Western Carpathians (Slovakia): evolution between 1955 and 2015

Changes in management regime in recent decades have significantly contributed to threats to traditional European agricultural systems, but this has not been studied sufficiently. This paper examines these changes by considering the agroforestry system of traditional orchards in the Myjava-White Carpathian scattered settlement region (Slovakia) between 1955 and 2015. Data on orchard management was collected using structured interviews with 116 local residents in 2015 – 2016. Information was sought on management practices in the following years: 1955, when collectivisation was just beginning, and traditional practices were dominant; 1975, when collectivisation had finished; 1990, when the socialist period had ended; 2000, after the subsequent socio-political changes; and 2015, reflecting the current state of affairs. Traditional orchard management included mowing, grazing, ploughing, fertilising, and litter raking. Management had changed in 75.8 % of the studied orchards between 1955 and 2015. These changes included especially change in frequency of mowing, a drastic decline in grazing, and cessation of ploughing. Also, understorey mulching appeared as a new practice in 1990 and has been growing steadily more common since that time. Our study confirms an escalating risk of extinction of these valuable habitats, whose management is affected by socio-economic changes.

Re-designing organic grain legume cropping systems using systems agronomy

Abstract Crop production in Europe is intensive, highly specialized and responsible for some negative environmental impacts, raising questions about the sustainability of agricultural systems. The (re)integration of grain legumes into European agricultural systems could contribute to the transition to more sustainable food production. While the general benefits from legume cultivation are widely known, there is little evidence on how to re-design specific cropping systems with legumes to make this option more attractive to farmers. The objectives of this study were to describe the constraints and opportunities of grain legume production perceived by farmers, explain the agronomic impacts of current grain legume cropping, explore technical options to improve grain legume agronomy, and to re-design current grain legume cropping systems in a participatory process with farmers. A co-design approach was implemented with farmers, advisors and scientists on 25 farms in northern Germany, that were part of two large demonstration networks of about 170 farms supporting grain legumes across Germany. We used the DEED research cycle (Describe, Explain, Explore and Design) as a conceptual framework combining on-farm research, crop rotation modelling, and on-station experiments. From it, we identified nine agronomic practices that either were novel or confirmed known strategies under new conditions, to re-design grain legume cropping systems at the field and farm level. The practices included (i) inter-row hoeing, (ii) direct seeding into a cover-crop, (iii) species-specific inoculation, (iv) cover crops to reduce leaching, (v) reduced tillage, (vi) soybean for increased gross margins, (vii) cultivars for food and feed use, (viii) flexible irrigation, (ix) grain legumes with cover crop to enhance subsequent crop yields. We also demonstrate how to complement knowledge of farmers’ perceptions (Describe step) and formal knowledge from classical on-station experiments and modelling (Explain step) with on-farm research including the local views of farmers (Explore step) to identify tailored options for specific farm contexts rather than prescriptive solutions (Design step) to intensify legume production. This approach therefore contrasts with traditional methods that are often solely participatory and qualitative or model/experimental-based and quantitative. Hence, our results provide new insights in how to re-design cropping systems using a combination of participatory and quantitative approaches. While participatory approaches are common in developing countries, this study shows their potential in an industrialized context with large-scale farmers in Europe. These novel findings can be used as a starting point for further adaptations of cropping systems and contribute to making grain legume production economically and environmentally more sustainable.

Effects of Light, Temperature, and Soil Depth on the Germination and Emergence of Conyza canadensis (L.) Cronq.

Understanding the dynamics of invasive species under global climate change requires knowledge about the effects of environmental factors on germination and emergence. We considered Conyza canadensis (L.) Cronq., an invasive species that is quickly invading Southern European agricultural systems, and performed germination assays in growth chambers at eight constant temperatures with alternating light (2.5, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, and 40 °C, with 12 h/12 h—light/dark), three alternating temperatures in alternating light (12/18, 17/23, and 22/28 °C, with 12 h/12 h—light/dark) and three fixed temperatures (15, 20, and 25 °C) in complete darkness. Furthermore, emergence assays were performed in pots considering four depths (0, 2.5, 5, and 10 mm), three temperatures with alternating light (15, 20, and 25 °C) and un-treated or pre-treated seeds (water imbibition and light for two days). C. canadensis was able to germinate in a wide range of temperatures (from 5–10 °C to 30 °C). The highest germination capacity was observed at 15 °C (light/dark); no differences were observed at 17/23 and 22/28 °C with respect to 20 and 25 °C (light/dark), while germinations were significantly reduced at 12/18 °C. The lowest germination time was observed at 25 °C (light/dark) and it was significantly increased at 12/18 °C and in darkness. The highest emergence was from 0 mm depth; pre-treatment significantly increased the emergence from 2.5 mm and 5 mm depth, but not from 10 mm depth. Modeling germination rates as a function of temperature allowed us to determine Tb = 6.8 °C (base temperature) and Tc = 35.8 °C (ceiling temperature). In light of these results, the potential for C. canadensis to spread into new environments and possible new management methods are discussed.

Exploring the labour productivity of agricultural systems across European regions: A multilevel approach

Agricultural productivity varies greatly among agricultural systems and among regions in Europe. A multilevel logistic regression model was applied to investigate the labour productivity of the six main agricultural systems across European NUTS2 regions. K-means and two-step clustering methods were used to classify European regions based on the agricultural systems’ standard output per annual work unit. We analysed the effect of environmental (soil erosion, rainfed yield potential), structural (farm education, age, pluriactivity, diversification, rented agricultural land), technical (yield ratio) and contextual (gross domestic product per capita, population density) factors on labor productivity. Significant differences were revealed between northern-central regions and the continental peripheries (Mediterranean, Eastern). Soil erosion negatively affects agricultural labour productivity; for each one ton/ha increase in the modelled annual soil erosion rate the odds of regions to attain high labour productivity decreased by 28%. The importance of technical efficiency in crop production was also identified. Observed low wheat yields, relative to modelled potential yields, in the southern, eastern and northern European regions indicate a large unexploited gap. The positive effect of the regional gross domestic product per capita and the low population density confirmed the importance of contextual factors on labour productivity. A second analysis of a composite indicator of the labour productivity of the European agricultural systems, which accounted for the productivity of each system without considering its size, revealed the positive effect of farm education and the negative effect of pluriactivity on agricultural labour productivity. The analyses indicate the importance of compensatory allowances for areas facing natural constraints, while investing in farm training schemes and advisory services could increase the adoption of new technologies and improve the performance of farmers in both economic and environmental terms. Finally, the significance of contextual factors indicates the importance of a better harmonisation of rural development policy with regional policy.

The Common Agricultural Policy 2014–2020: scenarios for the European agricultural and rural systems

The reform of Common Agricultural Policy for 2014–2020 aims at promoting greater competitiveness, efficient use of public goods, food security, preservation of the environment and specific action against climate change, social and territorial equilibrium, and a more inclusive rural development. The economic crisis of the last years, the globalization, the increasing pressure on natural resources, the increasing diversity of agriculture and rural areas in the new enlarged Europe, and citizens’ expectations regarding the environment, safety and food quality, health and welfare, preservation of the countryside, biodiversity and climate change, and the unequal distribution of resources are some of the major issues that this policy has faced, in a production context directed by principles of fairness and efficiency. The policy instruments to address these challenges and achieve specific objectives appear greatly transformed and made up of two complementary pillars (direct payments and market measures, the first, and rural development, the second). The perspectives that the new Common Agricultural Policy provides in order to reach a competitive repositioning of the European agricultural and rural systems have been the theme of the 51st SIDEA Conference aimed at promoting a scientific debate on implementation of this policy in Italy. The papers selected for this special issue focus on the new perspectives for European farms, agri-food supply chains, and rural territories of the new Common Agricultural Policy.

Novel approaches to evaluate sustainability of pasture-based livestock systems

Pasture-based livestock systems, often located in High Value Nature farmland areas, hold the greatest potential to deliver public goods across European agricultural systems. They play an important role in preserving agricultural landscapes, farmland biodiversity, cultural heritage, and in sustaining rural development. However, many of these functions are ignored in evaluation frameworks because public goods do not have market price and are often ignored in policy design, so farmers do not get the appropriate incentives to provide them. Different conceptual frameworks can be utilized to evaluate the multiple functions or services of these systems: Multifunctional Agriculture, Ecosystem Services, and Total Economic Value. We analyze the common characteristics of these concepts (e.g. they place human benefits and societal demands at the core of their definitions), their specificities (e.g. use of different units of analysis and spatial-temporal scales), and how they can be embedded in the wider concept of sustainability. Finally, we illustrate how the different concepts can be combined to evaluate pasture-based livestock farming systems from a socio-cultural and economic perspective. The public goods (ecosystem services) provided by representative case studies in Mediterranean and Nordic regions are quantified (also in monetary terms) under different environmental/policy scenarios. The results show that there is a clear underestimation of the socio-cultural and economic values of ecosystem services provided by these farming systems. They also show that the social welfare loss linked to further abandonment of livestock farming, and the associated environmental degradation, is very large. From a societal perspective, it is necessary to jointly measure the biophysical, socio-cultural and monetary values of ecosystem services (market and nonmarket) in order to promote the sustainability of pasture-based livestock systems.

Rainfed crop production challenges under European high-latitude conditions

Global warming is likely to prolong the growing season at high latitudes where the brevity of the growing season currently limits crop growth and yields. A longer growing season, elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), dedicated plant breeding, and adjusted agronomic practices could open new avenues to increase yield potential while reducing risks of various abiotic stresses such as inadequate precipitation. We used statistical and simulation modelling approaches to determine whether future estimates for elevated yield potentials match projected changes (according to the high-emission SRES A2 scenario) in precipitation patterns and volumes, essential prerequisites for high-latitude rainfed agroecosystems. The statistical approach used long-term data sets to estimate future changes in yield potentials resulting from extension of the growing season and new, better adapted cultivars through plant breeding. Estimated increases in potential yield and biomass were 20–54 kg ha−1 per annum for grain or seed yield, depending on crop, excluding the effects of elevated (CO2). We also applied a crop simulation approach, using the WOFOST model, with barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) as a test crop, to simulate the impact of changing mean climate and the CO2 fertilisation on biomass development and yield formation under optimal nutrient supply, favourable soils, and complete plant protection. Elevated CO2 alleviated the drought effects. However, drought risk increased as the projected increases in precipitation seemed insufficient to meet the increasing needs of the potentially higher crop biomasses. Therefore, irrigation systems need to be developed to realise the future higher yield potentials in northern European agricultural systems.

Static yields and quality issues: Is the agri-environment program the primary driver?

The Finnish agri-environmental program (AEP) has been in operation for 20 years with >90 % farmer commitment. This study aimed to establish whether reduced nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) use has impacted spring cereal yields and quality based on comprehensive follow-up studies and long-term experiments. We found that the gap between genetic yield potential and attained yield has increased after the AEP was imposed. However, many contemporary changes in agricultural practices, driven by changes in prices and farm subsidies, also including the AEP, were likely reasons, together with reduced N, but not phosphorus use. Such overall changes in crop management coincided with stagnation or decline in yields and adverse changes in quality, but yield-removed N increased and residual N decreased. Further studies are needed to assess whether all the changes are environmentally, economically, and socially sustainable, and acceptable, in the long run. The concept of sustainable intensification is worth considering as a means to develop northern European agricultural systems to combine environmental benefits with productivity.