European Age-standardised Rates Research Articles

P680 Epidemiology of Inflammatory Bowel Disease in Poland 2009–2020: nationwide data

Abstract Background The epidemiology of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) in Poland has only been recognised to a limited extent. We aimed to estimate the prevalence and incidence of the disease by analysing data from the National Health Fund, the sole public health insurer. Methods Administrative health claims collected over the 2009–2020 period were used to identify patients with Crohn’s disease (CD) or ulcerative colitis (UC). A definition of a case comprised ≥2 records assigned K50 or K51 codes, plus ≥2 prescriptions for IBD drugs reimbursed, or else intestinal surgery preceding the record. The crude and European age-standardised rates (EASR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated for the prevalence and incidence. Time trends were also analysed. Results As of 2020 there were 23,574 patients with CD and 73,235 with UC. The CD and UC prevalence was respectively 61.6 [EASR 60.3 (95% CI 59.5–61.0)] and 191.4 [EASR 187.85 (95% CI 186.5–189.2)] per 100,000. The prevalence of CD was higher in men [64.1; EASR 61.3 (95% CI 60.2–62.5)] than in women [59.3; EASR 58.4 (95% CI 57.3-59,5)]. Similarly, the prevalence of UC was higher in men [201.4; EASR 202.7 (95% CI 200.5–204.8)] than in women [182.0; EASR 175.5 (95% CI 173.7–177. 4)]. The incidence of CD was 4.7 per 100 000 [EASR 4.6 (95% CI 4.4–4.8)], while of UC 12.5 [EASR 12.3 (95%CI 12.0–12.7)]. Through the period 2012–2018, the prevalence of both conditions rose, even as downward trends were noted for disease incidence. Conclusion The prevalence and incidence of IBD in Poland are presented, with time trends showing substantial increase in the disease burden over the years 2009–2020.

Nationwide data on epidemiology of inflammatory bowel disease in Poland between 2009 and 2020.

The epidemiology of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) in Poland has been recognized to only a limited extent. We aimed to estimate the prevalence and incidence of IBD by analyzing data from the National Health Fund, Poland's sole public health insurer. Administrative health claims collected over the 2009-2020 period were used to identify patients with Crohn's disease (CD) or ulcerative colitis (UC). A definition of a case comprised at least 2 records assigned K50 or K51 codes, plus at least 2 prescriptions for IBD drugs reimbursed, or else intestinal surgery preceding the record. The crude and European age‑ standardized rates (EASR) and 95% CIs were calculated for prevalence and incidence. Time trends were also analyzed. As of 2020, there were 23 574 patients with CD and 73 235 with UC. The CD and UC prevalence was respectively 61.6 (EASR 60.3) and 191.4 (EASR 187.85) per 100 000. The prevalence of CD and UC was higher in men (64.1; EASR 61.3 and 201.4; EASR 202.7, respectively) than in women (59.3; EASR 58.4 and 182.0; EASR 175.5, respectively). The incidence of CD was 4.7 per 100 000 (EASR 4.6), and that of UC 12.5 (EASR 12.3). Through the period 2012-2018, the prevalence of both conditions was rising, even though downward trends were noted for the disease incidence. The prevalence and incidence of IBD in Poland are presented, with time trends showing a substantial increase in the disease burden over the years 2009-2020.

Prediction of cervical cancer incidence in England, UK, up to 2040, under four scenarios: a modelling study

SummaryBackgroundIn the next 25 years, the epidemiology of cervical cancer in England, UK, will change: human papillomavirus (HPV) screening will be the primary test for cervical cancer. Additionally, the proportion of women screened regularly is decreasing and women who received the HPV vaccine are due to attend screening for the first time. Therefore, we aimed to estimate how vaccination against HPV, changes to the screening test, and falling screening coverage will affect cervical cancer incidence in England up to 2040.MethodsWe did a data modelling study that combined results from population modelling of incidence trends, observable data from the individual level with use of a generalised linear model, and microsimulation of unobservable disease states. We estimated age-specific absolute risks of cervical cancer in the absence of screening (derived from individual level data). We used an age period cohort model to estimate birth cohort effects. We multiplied the absolute risks by the age cohort effects to provide absolute risks of cervical cancer for unscreened women in different birth cohorts. We obtained relative risks (RRs) of cervical cancer by screening history (never screened, regularly screened, or lapsed attender) using data from a population-based case-control study for unvaccinated women, and using a microsimulation model for vaccinated women. RRs of primary HPV screening were relative to cytology. We used the proportion of women in each 5-year age group (25–29 years to 75–79 years) and 5-year period (2016–20 to 2036–40) who have a combination of screening and vaccination history, and weighted to estimate the population incidence. The primary outcome was the number of cases and rates per 100 000 women under four scenarios: no changes to current screening coverage or vaccine uptake and HPV primary testing from 2019 (status quo), changing the year in which HPV primary testing is introduced, introduction of the nine-valent vaccine, and changes to cervical screening coverage.FindingsThe status quo scenario estimated that the peak age of cancer diagnosis will shift from the ages of 25–29 years in 2011–15 to 55–59 years in 2036–40. Unvaccinated women born between 1975 and 1990 were predicted to have a relatively high risk of cervical cancer throughout their lives. Introduction of primary HPV screening from 2019 could reduce age-standardised rates of cervical cancer at ages 25–64 years by 19%, from 15·1 in 2016 to 12·2 per 100 000 women as soon as 2028. Vaccination against HPV types 16 and 18 (HPV 16/18) could see cervical cancer rates in women aged 25–29 years decrease by 55% (from 20·9 in 2011–15 to 9·5 per 100 000 women by 2036–40), and introduction of nine-valent vaccination from 2019 compared with continuing vaccination against HPV 16/18 will reduce rates by a further 36% (from 9·5 to 6·1 per 100 000 women) by 2036–40. Women born before 1991 will not benefit directly from vaccination; therefore, despite vaccination and primary HPV screening with current screening coverage, European age-standardised rates of cervical cancer at ages 25–79 years will decrease by only 10% (from 12·8 in 2011–15 to 11·5 per 100 000 women in 2036–40). If screening coverage fell to 50%, European age-standardised rates could increase by 27% (from 12·8 to 16·3 per 100 000 by 2036–40).InterpretationGoing forward, focus should be placed on scenarios that offer less intensive screening for vaccinated women and more on increasing coverage and incorporation of new technologies to enhance current cervical screening among unvaccinated women.FundingJo's Cervical Cancer Trust and Cancer Research UK.

Unintentional injury in England: an analysis of the emergency care data set pilot in Oxfordshire from 2012 to 2014

BackgroundA pilot injury data collection exercise at the emergency departments (EDs) of Oxford University Hospitals National Health Service (NHS) Foundation Trust (OUH) ran from 2012 to 2014 to inform the...

Trends in Basal Cell Carcinoma Incidence Rates: A 37-Year Dutch Observational Study

Basal cell carcinoma (BCC) incidence rates are increasing. From 1973 to 2009, data on all first histologically confirmed BCCs were gained from the Eindhoven Cancer Registry to estimate trends in patient-based BCC incidence rates by sex, age group, and site in the southeast Netherlands. Trends in European age-standardized rates and age- and site-specific incidence rates were assessed by calculating the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Between 1973 and 2009, the European standardized rate quadrupled from 40 to 165 per 100,000 person-years for men and from 34 to 157 for women, significantly increasing since 1973 in both sexes, but accelerating from 2002 until 2009 with an EAPC of 6.8% (95% confidence interval (CI), 5.3-8.3) for men and 7.9% (95% CI, 6.2-9.7) for women. Women below the age of 40 years exhibited a constant linear increase of 6.3% since 1973. The head and neck region was most often affected in both sexes, but the steepest increase was seen for the trunk (EAPC men 13%, women 15%). In the absence of reliable tumor-based rates, these alarming patient-based rates are probably an interesting indicator for the impact of more intensive UV exposure in a prosperous European population.

PP-009 Significant increase in the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma in wales

Introduction Increasing mortality rates for some types of primary liver cancer have been documented in several countries in recent years. The figures published for England and Wales have described a marked increase in cases of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma with a static or declining rate of mortality from hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).1 However, over the last decade, the prevalence of several risk factors for HCC (chronic viral hepatitis, alcoholic liver disease and obesity/NASH) have all dramatically increased in Wales. We therefore hypothesised that, due to the significant difference in population size between these two regions, a dilutional effect may have masked the true incidence of HCC within Wales. Methods The database of the Welsh Cancer Intelligence and Surveillance Unit was examined for all liver tumour types affecting Welsh residents regardless of treatment location across the years 1999–2008 inclusive. The incidence was recorded as the European Age Standardised Rate (EASR) per 100 000 population. Subcategory analysis was made for hepatocellular carcinoma, fibrolamellar HCC, combined HCC and cholangiocarcinoma and all liver malignant neoplasms. Patients were stratified according to age and sex and an additional 3 years moving-average EASR calculated across the whole study period. Results There was a significant and progressive increase in the incidence of HCC in Wales from 1999 to 2008. The absolute numbers of HCC cases, the EASR and the proportion of malignant liver neoplasms have all risen. In men, the EASR increased by 100% in just 8 years from 1.9 to 3.8 per 100 000. In addition, the EASR increased in women by 83% from 0.6 to 1.1 per 100 000. The rolling 3-year average rates closely followed these trends throughout the 10-year study period. Notably, in both sexes there has been a substantial rise in the number of HCC cases in patients under the age of 70 years. Conclusion In contrast to the previously published trends, we found the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma has consistently increased over the last decade in Wales. This rise may reflect regional changes in HCC risk factors and may have been obscured by combining figures with the much larger population of England. Further research will be necessary to determine the underlying causes of this increase and to direct resources toward the prevention and early detection of HCC in Wales.

Population-based incidence and survival of gastrointestinal stromal tumours (GIST) in Girona, Spain

Background Gastrointestinal stromal tumours (GIST) are rare malignancies characterised by their association with KIT oncogene mutations. Until now, population-based reports of the incidence or survival of kit-confirmed GIST have been rare, and none have originated in Southern Europe. Materials and methods We used the Girona Cancer Registry to identify malignant mesenchymal tumours of the digestive tract between 1994 and 2001, and performed c-kit testing in the tumour samples. Age-adjusted incidence rates and survival rates were calculated, and they were also analysed by sex and NIH risk categories. Results Forty-six cases were categorised as GIST. Fifty percent were localised in the stomach, 43.5% in small intestine, 4.3% in the omentum, and 2.2% in colon. Thirty-seven percent were classified as high risk of an aggressive behaviour, 30.4% as intermediate risk and 32.6% as low or very low risk. Only one patient received treatment with imatinib mesilate. The annual incidence by 100,000 inhabitants in crude rate, European age-standardised rate and world age-standardised rate was, respectively, 1.09, 0.90 and 0.65 cases. The relative 5-year survival rate was 74.7% for the entire cohort, and it was markedly lower in the high-risk cases (20.3%). Conclusions We report the first population-based study of GIST incidence and survival in Southern Europe. The incidence rate is low and comparable with that of cancer registries from Northern Europe. Survival was favourable in our pre-imatinib population although it was low in high risk cases. Prognostic discrimination of the cases with intermediate, low, or very low risk is inadequate, and these categories should be considered jointly in the future. Our results will help researchers in establishing baseline values against which they can compare, in the future, the impact of imatinib and other Kit tyrosine inhibitors on survival.

Changing trends in incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer in Scotland

The incidence of thyroid cancer is increasing in several countries. The aim was to investigate trends in the incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer in Scotland, where thyroid cancer is relatively uncommon, between 1960 and 2002. Descriptive epidemiological study. Thyroid cancer registrations between 1960 and 2000 were obtained from the Scottish Cancer Registry. Mortality data (1960-2002) and population estimates were supplied by the Registrar General for Scotland. Incidence and mortality data are expressed as age-specific rates and European age-standardized rates (EASRs). Thyroid cancer was three times more common in females than in males and was more common in older than younger age groups. Between 1960 and 2000, the annual EASR of thyroid cancer increased from 1.76 to 3.54 per 100,000 for females (P < 0.001) and from 0.83 to 1.25 per 100,000 in males (P < 0.001). The overall thyroid cancer increase between 1975 and 2000 was primarily caused by an increase in papillary thyroid cancer, particularly over the most recent decade. The incidence of follicular thyroid cancer also increased while the incidence of anaplastic and medullary thyroid cancer did not change significantly. Mortality from thyroid cancer fell progressively between 1960 and 2002. EASR for females decreased from 1.05 to 0.28 (P < 0.001) and in males from 0.73 to 0.34 (P < 0.001). For both sexes, in general, survival at 1-, 5- and 10-year follow-up intervals from diagnosis improved steadily over the study period. In both females and males, survival from thyroid cancer was better if the diagnosis was made under the age of 50 years. Thyroid cancer incidence has increased in Scotland over the past 40 years. This is accompanied by a change in the distribution of histological type with a particular increase in papillary carcinoma. The reasons for this may relate partly to changes in clinical practice and histological criteria. Falling mortality in the face of increasing incidence reflects improvements in survival, which should improve further with the introduction and implementation of standardized treatment protocols.

Parasuicide and suicide in the south-west of Ireland.

Suicidal behaviour has become recognised as a major public health problem. To examine hospital-treated parasuicide and suicide in the Southern and Mid-Western Health Boards. Parasuicide data were derived from independent data collection in general and psychiatric hospitals and prisons between 1995 and 1997. The corresponding suicide data were obtained electronically from the Central Statistics Office. Respectively, the annual person-based male, female and total European age-standardised rates were 128.9, 154.3 and 141.3 per 100,000 for parasuicide compared to 22.7, 5.5 and 14.1 per 100,000 for suicide. The parasuicide/suicide ratio varied markedly by age, gender, area and marital status. The majority of suicides were by hanging or drowning whereas drug overdose made up the vast majority of parasuicide acts. Parasuicide was largely a city phenomenon confined to the young of both genders whereas suicide was a significant problem for city and county men, especially young adult men. There are striking differences between the patterns of fatal and non-fatal suicidal behaviour in Ireland, which should be considered in prevention initiatives.