Euro-Atlantic Area Research Articles

The security and military context of the Russia–Ukraine war

AbstractOne year of full-fledged conventional war fought on the European continent between two large countries, including a nuclear power, is obviously a historical watershed for NATO and the whole Euro-Atlantic area. The conflict has already caused many casualties, destroyed infrastructure and degraded the relationship between the West and Russia. The lecture summarizes the most important elements of the crisis from security and military perspectives.

The role of the Polish Armed Forces in countering terrorism

In the modern security systems of the countries of the Euro-Atlantic area, a very important part is the fight against terrorism, in which the use of armed forces is a very important factor. The purpose of this article was to define the role of the Polish Armed Forces in combating terrorist threats, both within the framework of internal security and international security. The publication presents issues describing the phenomenon of terrorism. The introduction outlines how important the phenomenon of terrorism is in the modern world. Then, the focus was on characterizing this phenomenon, using definitions published in the literature covering the described phenomenon. The next part presents legal regulations regulating anti-terrorist activity in Poland, as well as the location of the Polish Armed Forces in these regulations, along with a description of the possibility of using them to fight terrorist threats. Subsequently, the focus was on characterizing the activities of the Polish Armed Forces in the aspect of combating terrorism, based on examples of their use in the past. The main research problem was formulated: What is the role of the Polish Armed Forces in combating terrorist threats in Poland and what are the possible directions for further development of anti-terrorist activities by the Polish Armed Forces? In response to the question, the following research hypothesis was formulated: The Armed Forces of the Republic of Poland play an important role? In combating terrorist threats both in Poland and within the framework of international actions. In the past, their actions have been effective, but in the face of the dynamically changing terrorist threat, it is necessary to constantly improve the tools and methods used by them, as well as to develop cooperation with other anti-terrorist services and institutions. Verification of the above hypothesis and obtaining answers to the above questions required the use of qualitative methods. For the purposes of the research, the method of analysis of literature, legal acts, Internet sources was used and analysis of data available in literature and internet sources covering the subject.

Formation of the "treaty security" system of Ukraine as a component of the modern architecture of international peace and security in the Euro-Atlantic area

Formation of the "treaty security" system of Ukraine as a component of the modern architecture of international peace and security in the Euro-Atlantic area

Redefining NATO’s Indo-Pacific partnerships: cooperative security meets collective defence and deterrence

ABSTRACT When the 2010 Strategic Concept first established NATO’s partnerships as essential in the core task of cooperative security, global partnerships were primarily intended to support non-Article 5 contingencies. However, given the structural changes in the international system, NATO’s partnerships outside the Euro-Atlantic area are adapting to respond to the new security challenges. This article examines the evolution of NATO’s partnerships in the Indo-Pacific and offers insights into future developments. There is a clear alignment between the Alliance and the Indo-Pacific Four (IP4) in the way they diagnose the interconnectedness of security developments of their respective regions. Both sides increasingly see these partnerships as significant for their own defence and deterrence, rather than as instruments in pooling resources in the provision of security for third parties.

The Developments in the Arms Market in the Context of the Military Conflict in Ukraine

The military conflict provoked by the Russian Federation in Ukraine has created major imbalances in international security. In this fluid and unpredictable security environment, the defence industry has reacted promptly, increasing production and export of military equipment and modern weapon systems to counterbalance the aggressive actions of the Russian Federation. The data analysed indicate the Russian Federation’s continuing concern to make significant defence investments, including in the defence complex, which reveals its interest in continuing the military conflict in Ukraine. As for the Euro-Atlantic states, they are trying to counter the threat posed by the Russian Federation by supplying Ukraine with high-performance military equipment, while investing in their militaries to supplement the weapons supplied to Ukraine. After the outbreak of the military conflict in Ukraine, Romania has managed to increase its exports of arms and ammunition, creating favourable conditions for profitable partnerships with large companies in the Euro-Atlantic area. At the same time, Romania has increased its defence budget allocation to 2.5% of GDP, and there are discussions to further increase this percentage in the coming period. A substantial part of this budget allocation is earmarked for the procurement of modern military equipment to NATO standards for the Romanian armed forces.

Evoluțiile pieței de armament în contextul conflictului militar din Ucraina

The military conflict provoked by the Russian Federation in Ukraine has created major imbalances in international security. In this fluid and unpredictable security environment, the defence industry has reacted promptly, increasing production and export of military equipment and modern weapon systems to counterbalance the aggressive actions of the Russian Federation. The data analysed indicate the Russian Federation’s continuing concern to make significant defence investments, including in the defence complex, which reveals its interest in continuing the military conflict in Ukraine. As for the Euro-Atlantic states, they are trying to counter the threat posed by the Russian Federation by supplying Ukraine with high-performance military equipment, while investing in their militaries to supplement the weapons supplied to Ukraine. After the outbreak of the military conflict in Ukraine, Romania has managed to increase its exports of arms and ammunition, creating favourable conditions for profitable partnerships with large companies in the Euro-Atlantic area. At the same time, Romania has increased its defence budget allocation to 2.5% of GDP, and there are discussions to further increase this percentage in the coming period. A substantial part of this budget allocation is earmarked for the procurement of modern military equipment to NATO standards for the Romanian armed forces.

COOPERATION IN THE FIELD OF MISSILE DEFENSE IN THE EURO-ATLANTIC AREA

An important feature of contemporary armed conflicts is the large-scale use of air attack. The events of the last two years have made many experts realize that the present air safety environment is increasingly uncertain, complex, and difficult to forecast. It is therefore justified to present current issues related to anti-missile defense – which, in the authors’ opinion, is crucial for the functioning of NATO border states.The aim of this article is to describe cooperation in the framework of anti-missile defense in the Euro-Atlantic area, which is characterized by a dynamic process of transformation, including ambitions among some countries to dominate in this dimension.This study uses document research and quantitative and qualitative analysis. It reviews the scientific literature on the complex issue of cooperation in the field of missile defense, and uses publicly available information provided by interested institutions. The results show that this cooperation is not a new phenomenon, but it currently requires organized political and military actions from states, including their armed forces.

NATO at 75: The Perils of Empty Promises

Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, NATO embarked on an ambitious series of military reforms aimed at enhancing deterrence and defence of the Euro-Atlantic area. However, as the Alliance approaches its 75th anniversary, concerns are mounting regarding the ability of non-US allies to meet their expanded security obligations. The Alliance’s updated regional-defence plans, and planned transformations to the NATO force and command structures, could pose considerable challenges for the European and Canadian allies who, following decades of cuts to their armed forces, lack the personnel required for implementing these reforms.

NATO’S CONCEPT FOR THE DETERRENCE AND DEFENCE OF THE EURO-ATLANTIC AREA

On November 21, 2022, Brigadier-General (retired) Jay Janzen, Director of Strategic Communications with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, presented NATO’s Concept for the Deterrence and Defence of the Euro-Atlantic Area at the 2022 West Coast Security Conference. The presentation was followed by a question-and-answer period with questions from the audience and CASIS-Vancouver executives. The key points discussed were NATO’s renewed focus on deterrence and defence, the concept of Deter and Defend, and the new force model. Received: 2023-01-06Revised: 2023-01-09

THE SOURCES AND DYNAMICS OF TURKEY’S ANTAGONISM TOWARDS THE EURO-ATLANTIC ASPIRATIONS OF SWEDEN AND FINLAND

Since 1949, NATO’s membership has increased from 12 to 31 countries through nine rounds of enlargement. Allegedly, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization door remains open to any European country in a position to undertake the commitments and obligations of membership, and contribute to security in the Euro-Atlantic area. Yet, any decision to invite a country to join the bloc is taken by the North Atlantic Council on the basis of consensus among all Allies. This dichotomy has attracted particular attention following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which ‘encouraged’ historically non-aligned Finland and Sweden to apply for NATO membership. Apparently, the Euro-Atlantic aspirations of both Nordic countries have immediately encountered strong Turkey’s antagonism. While Finland is now a NATO Ally as of 4 April 2023, Sweden has got merely an official Invitee status. Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has highlighted that NATO’s priority is for Sweden’s accession to be completed as soon as possible as well. Although President Erdogan submitted Sweden’s accession protocol to the Turkish parliament for ratification in October 2023, there is an ongoing discussion on the reasons why the process has been held up by official Ankara. This article aims at exploring the genuine motives behind Turkey’s reluctance to clear the way for the country to become part of the Western military-political bloc. It argues that self-positioning of Turkey as a non-conventional NATO Ally pursuing an autonomous policy, trying to have its own national security concerns better accommodated by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, has been a critical factor.

THE BIDEN DOCTRINE AND THE WAR IN UKRAINE: RENEWED TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONS OR REATLANTISATION BETWEEN A STRATEGIC AND ASITUATIONAL PARTNERSHIP

The war in Ukraine is the most significant threat to the peace of the Euro-Atlantic area in decades. After 4 years of Trump’s weakening of transatlantic relations, Biden’s presumed foreign policy doctrine includes their quick renewal, or re-Atlantisation. The article problematises the ‘new’ strategy of containment given Russia’s aggression, the state of transatlantic relations, and the current global order’s configuration, whereby the transatlantic bond is being strengthened and the formation of Biden’s foreign policy doctrine is being followed by a ‘grand-strategic’ shift. Four different models of transatlantic relations (mutual autonomy, strategic autonomy, strategic partnership, situational partnership) are discussed where variables include the approach taken by the USA to transatlantic relations, and the approach of Europe’s EU and NATO members to transatlantic relations are addressed. The main argument is that transatlantic relations during Biden’s mandate have constantly oscillated between a stra-tegic partnership, especially related to common goals of democracy promotion and containment and situ-ational partnership. Situations like the war in Ukraine have simultaneously acted to strengthen the American–European partnership based on the shared security and political interests.Keywords: transatlantic relations, reatlantisation, USA, Europe, Biden doctrine, war in Ukraine, strategic part-nership, situational partnership

NATO’s position and role in the Indo-Pacific

ABSTRACT NATO can ill-afford to dismiss the security and military implications of China’s increased presence and its relationship with Russia throughout the Euro-Atlantic area and along its periphery. The Alliance’s strategic calculus must include China across all relevant sectors including: security, economics, technology, and elite capture. The strategic concept should acknowledge that the Alliance needs to improve its awareness of China – starting with the psychology of the leadership in Zhongnanhai. There is no uniform vision amongst Chinese leaders vis-à-vis world order but four theories can be used to foster awareness: (1) moral realism, (2) relationalism, (3) symbiotic theory, and (4) Tianxiaism. Understanding the theoretical underpinnings of Chinese worldviews can help leaders of the Alliance mitigate strategic risk throughout the North Atlantic Area. Another way for NATO to reduce risk is to engage other nations in the Indo-Pacific region. The strategic concept should present a realistic approach to partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region that raise awareness, understanding, and trust with the Alliance. The new Strategic Concept should outline how NATO must do work “under-the-hood” to ensure it has a complete picture of China’s influence throughout the Euro-Atlantic area, starting with the creation of a NATO-China Council.

Bezpečnostní prostředí SEKTOROVÁ ANALÝZA A IMPLIKACE PRO OZBROJENÉ SÍLY ČR

This analytical study evaluated the development of the security environment of the Czech Republic in 2021. The study is based primarily on materials prepared by the Centre for Security and Military Strategic Studies, as well as on analytical materials prepared in countries which share the same or similar security environment and security interests. The study presents the results of a comparative analysis of available open sources and contains an evaluation of selected state and trans-national actors. For the purpose of the study, a sectoral analysis based on the principles of the Copenhagen School was used, describing the political, social, environmental, military, technological and economic sectors. The study analyses the period of the past year 2021 and tries to capture the main events and trends in specific sectors with impact on the security environment and to identify the implications for defence policy and the armed forces. The results of the sectoral analysis are shown by the figure at the end of the study. Relevant threats identified in 2021 are aligned with the corresponding sectors, i.e., according to the nature of the protected value or the interest of the Czech Republic, which are endangered (e.g., the stability of the Euro-Atlantic area or the environment). At the same time, the threats are placed in homocentric circles reflecting the levels of their instrumentality: local - regional - global. Some of the challenges are manifested across multiple sectors and levels.

UK Defence Policy After Ukraine: Revisiting the Integrated Review

The 2021 Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy signified a major change in United Kingdom’s defence thinking because it identified China as the foremost threat to its long-term security interests. The resulting tilt to the Indo-Pacific region resurrected the prospect of a defence role that the UK had relinquished in the 1960s. Yet the UK can ill-afford to become a significant defence actor in the Indo-Pacific area. The optimal role for the UK is instead to encourage actors in the region to take the lead in countering China. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has reinforced the logic that the UK should concentrate its strength on bolstering the deterrent power of NATO within the Euro-Atlantic area.

A geopolitical and geostrategic blueprint for NATO’s China challenge

How will the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) respond to China’s rise? At the heart of NATO’s China challenge is the need for allies to grasp the magnitude of Beijing’s emerging geopolitical challenge to the Euro-Atlantic area. Utilizing geopolitical theories developed by Halford Mackinder and Nicholas Spykman, the article argues that China is evolving into a transatlantic challenge on the Eurasian “maritime periphery.” Consequently, NATO can play a significant role in putting pressure on China’s continental direction and its efforts to extend its strategic reach into the “far seas.”

THE EURO-ATLANTIC SECURITY AND THE TERRORISM

The security of Euro-Atlantic area must be analyzed and understood in the context of the international security environment specific to the beginning of the 21st century, an active and effervescent one, where hybrid threats and deep economic and social imbalances are real risks. The terrorism has been, is and will continue to be a topic of maximum interest. The approach of this phenomenon from the psychological perspective not only of those directly involved, but also of those affected after the attack, is of interest and very topical, in the context of the unprecedented technological and informational explosion.

NATO and EU Contributions to Consolidating Security and Defence in the Euro-Atlantic Area

Today’s world presents a contradictory picture that, along with economically prosperous areas, characterised by stability and integration trends, also includes poor, unstable regions, on the verge of disintegration. International threats and vulnerabilities have not disappeared, they have not diminished, they have changed. Instability has spread, and the danger of war has been replaced by a multitude of risk factors, the importance of which varies from situation to situation. Therefore, situations generate tensions that will become explosive and will inevitably lead to a whole range of domestic and international crises, crises that, as a rule, have ethnic, religious, territorial or economic roots. The multitude of actors involved in the process of ensuring security and defence in the Euro-Atlantic area makes it difficult to coordinate and streamline the initiatives launched for each area. Hence the need for each “security actor” to try to develop comprehensive strategies to address defence consolidation.

Contribuții ale NATO și UE pentru consolidarea securității și apărării în spațiul euroatlantic

Today’s world presents a contradictory picture that, along with economically prosperous areas, characterised by stability and integration trends, also includes poor, unstable regions, on the verge of disintegration. International threats and vulnerabilities have not disappeared, they have not diminished, they have changed. Instability has spread, and the danger of war has been replaced by a multitude of risk factors, the importance of which varies from situation to situation. Therefore, situations generate tensions that will become explosive and will inevitably lead to a whole range of domestic and international crises, crises that, as a rule, have ethnic, religious, territorial or economic roots. The multitude of actors involved in the process of ensuring security and defence in the Euro-Atlantic area makes it difficult to coordinate and streamline the initiatives launched for each area. Hence the need for each “security actor” to try to develop comprehensive strategies to address defence consolidation.

Recent Changes in Storm Track over the Southeast Europe: A Mechanism for Changes in Extreme Cyclone Variability

Recent changes in cyclone tracks crossing Southeast Europe are investigated for the last few decades (1980–1999 compared with 2000–2019) using a developed objective method. The response in number, severity, and persistence of the tracks are analyzed based on the source of origin (the Mediterranean Sea sub-domains) and the target area (Romania-centered domain). In winter, extreme cyclones became more frequent in the south and were also more persistent in the northeast of Romania. In summer, these became more intense and frequent, mainly over the south and southeast of Romania, where they also showed a significant increase in persistence. The regional extreme changes are related to polar jet displacements and further enhanced by the coupling of the sub-tropical jet in the Euro-Atlantic area, such as southwestwards shift in winter jets and a split-type configuration that shifts northeastwards and southeastwards in the summer. These provide a mechanism for regional variability of extreme cyclones through two paths, respectively, by shifting the origins of the tracks and by shifting the interaction between the anomaly jet streaks and the climatological storm tracks. Large-scale drivers of these changes are analyzed in relation to the main modes of atmospheric variability. The tracks number over the target domain is mainly driven during the cold season through a combined action of AO and Polar–European modes, and in summer by the AMO and East-Asian modes. These links and the circulation mode’s recent variability are consistent with changes found in the jet and storm tracks.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), An Obsolete Security Institution or A Group of Self-Seeking Elitists: Re-thinking Reform

This article argues that elitist tendencies in NATO’s leadership coupled with the support of its leading states, induced it to commit humanitarian catastrophes in parts of Europe and Middle East. These mundane policies portray NATO as an entity with blunt strategic vision to protect the security needs of its member states in the 21 st century. Similarly, the article contends that, although NATO has played a formidable role in stemming proliferation of nuclear arms and stability of the Euro-Atlantic area, some evidence suggest that the entity has outlived its usefulness. Finally, the article recommends that NATO should divest from its military expeditions in order to acquire new expertise in cyber technology; so as, to remain relevant to the international community thereby contributing towards the stability of the transatlantic project. Keywords: geo-political, strategy, elitism, security, self- interests, obsolete and reform DOI: 10.7176/IAGS/91-04 Publication date: August 31 st 2021