EU-Russia Research Articles

EU–Russia energy cooperation: implications for Lithuania’s energy security

EU–Russia energy cooperation: implications for Lithuania’s energy security

Security Concerns of the Russian Federation and Türkiye's Position Within the Scope of Georgia Intervention to South Ossetia in 2008

This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the geopolitical landscape in the South Caucasus, focusing on Russia's strategic interests, NATO and EU expansion efforts, and Turkey's role as a regional actor. It begins by examining Russia's "Near Environment" doctrine, emphasizing Moscow's perceived security threats and its proactive measures to maintain influence in its immediate surroundings. The 2008 conflict between Russia and Georgia serves as a focal point, illustrating the complex interplay of historical, ethnic, and political factors in the region. The article explores the origins of the Georgian-Ossetian crisis, the escalation into the "Five-Day War," and the subsequent recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia by Russia. It also examines Turkey's stance on the conflict, balancing support for Georgia's territorial integrity with economic and strategic interests in the region that advocates respect for Georgia's territorial integrity and sovereignty in the context of international law, but at the same time does not ignore its security concerns of Russia and aims to maintain a policy of balance in the Black Sea Basin and the Caucasus in the context of regional peacekeeping. Furthermore, the analysis highlights the international community's response to the conflict and its implications for regional stability. The conclusion underscores the significance of the South Caucasus in global geopolitics, particularly in shaping the balance of power in the Black Sea region. Overall, this article offers valuable insights into the complex dynamics of conflict and cooperation in a strategically vital area of Eurasia.

Геостратегическое положение России на Балтике как угроза морской блокады в современных условиях

This article utilises a systematic approach for a comprehensive examination of the Baltic Sea region as a geopolitical space and an analysis of geopolitical events (event-analysis) aimed to assess the capabilities of the US and NATO to impose a naval blockade on Russia in the Baltic Sea. This study is made relevant by the growing confrontation between the collective West and Russia, and the provocative anti-Russian rhetoric adopted by official representa­tives of NATO states. Finland’s accession to NATO, Sweden’s ‘de facto’ participation in the Alliance and Russia’s geostrategic position in the Baltic region have created a situation where the sea may turn into a literal trap for the latter country. There is a threat of a maritime and trade blockade of Russia amid US and EU sanctions policy against Russian oil and calls by some Western leaders for limiting Russia’s access to the Baltic Sea to protect their countries’ maritime communications from ‘Russian aggression’. The findings of this study and an anal­ysis of the geopolitical and military-strategic situation in the Baltic Sea region suggest that this threat may become a reality. Its significance is also evidenced by steps taken by US and NATO towards escalation in relations with Russia, attempts to damage the country’s econo­my and the anti-Russian hysteria of the Baltic States.

Dividing Lines in the EU’s Common Foreign Policy: Russia as a polarising factor

Amid the ongoing confrontation between Russia and the West, the processes of consolidation and divergence among political elites are crucial for understanding the mechanisms that form dividing lines. This is particularly important when examining the elites of the European Uni­on in their opposition to Russia. This article aims to develop a framework for analysing the dividing lines among EU elites in the context of relations with Russia. The analysis em­ploys a multi-tier model establishing a relationship between the ‘depth’ of a dividing line and the degree of elite disunity. The model includes two levels of analysis of dividing lines within the EU: supranational and national. The research demonstrates that, depending on the degree of interest misalignment and the availability of communication channels, elite divergence can result in segmentation, fragmentation or polarisation. Each of the tiers of divergence increa­singly reduces the likelihood of forming a common EU position on foreign policy issues. All three tendencies — segmentation, fragmentation and polarisation — are observed within the EU in relation to Russia at different levels of elite analysis. Crucial to the formation of a dividing line is the aspect of EU—Russia relations in question: the degree of distancing from the country or support for, and funding of, containment. Additional variables include factors such as the regional affiliation of the elite, their ideology and position within the power structure. Among all levels of analysis, polarisation is most evident in the efforts of supranational elites to promote ‘militant integration’, which conflicts with the interests of national elites and citizens of member states.

Investment attractiveness of Central Asian countries: factors and evaluation criteria

In the context of clear geopolitical trends, foreign investment play a significant role in the development of national economies. The work’s aim is analyzing the investment attractiveness’s level of the Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and conduct a study to increase their potential, give recommendations on the assessment methodology. The main foreign investors of them are EU countries, Turkey, China and Russia. These countries are strategic regions as continental highways of trade in the world and are main producers in Eurasia, while consuming the main raw materials of the region. When determining the investment attractiveness, the key factors were substantiated by the results of world studies and the leader among the states was identified on a factor-point scale. As part of the study, the correctness of the hypothesis about the operation of the P. Samuelson principle was tested: GDP growth can be ensured through the growth of foreign investment. The conducted correlation-regression analysis helps substantiating proposals concerning the state management of investments and shows the countries’s dependence on specific factors. The methodological justification includes identify dependencies between them, the review studies, which justify the ranking criteria. The grouping investments by segmenting domestic markets made it possible to determine directions for the development of economies, to clarify further investment research and approaches to expertise. The significance of the results of the study is determined by the possibility of further development of investment state concepts, the addition of mechanisms for increasing investment in the identified deficit areas.

Russia-Europe: What we have in common and what distinguishes us: the answer to the question of Russian philosofas, historians and writers

Russia–EU relations are going through difficult times now. By its actions on the eve and during the Ukrainian crisis, the European Union has called into question its reputation as a reliable partner of our country. A serious blow to the relations was infl icted by unilateral sanctions decisions of the European Union, adopted to the detriment of mutual economic interests in the name of promoting the same geopolitical goals. The events of recent months have shown that the dynamically developing trade and economic ties between Russia and the EU have not yet developed into a genuine strategic partnership based on the principles of equality, indivisibility of security and mutual respect for interests. The outdated confrontational stereotypes of the Cold War, which instilled in the minds of European leaders the possibility of isolating Russia and abolishing Russian culture, are still making themselves felt. This article contains an answer to the question about the relations between Russia and Europe, which was previously heard from the lips of prominent representatives of the Russian creative intelligentsia, whose opinion is relevant today.

Preference Constellations in EU–Russian Crisis Bargaining over Syria and Ukraine

AbstractThe Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 and the ensuing EU–Russian clash over the fate of Ukraine highlight the importance of explaining the outcomes of EU–Russian crisis bargaining. Complementing existing accounts, we argue that favourable preference constellations are key: The more determined, united and focused side prevails over its less interested, divided or unfocused counterpart. We first establish the inferiority of Russia's influence assets (economic, military, normative and allies) relative to the EU. We then use congruence analysis to reverse‐engineer crisis bargaining outcomes in key cases of EU–Russian crisis bargaining, showing that favourable preference constellations allowed Russia, despite inferior assets and EU opposition, to ensure Syrian dictator Assad's political survival, finalize the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and keep Donbass out of Kyiv's control since then. Finally, we discuss the implications of these findings for related areas, as well as for current and future EU–Russian crisis bargaining, specifically over Ukraine.

Ukraine–Russia Conflict and Stock Markets Reactions in Europe

This paper analyses the impact of Ukraine–Russia conflict on stock markets in Europe. We consider the stock markets of nine EU countries and Russia. The analysis consists of day-firm which includes the time between 24 November 2021 and 23 May 2022. We consider ordinary least squared (OLS) and fixed effects as baseline models. Additionally, we consider the impact of this conflict on stock return for several months, the elasticity test, the instrumental variable—two-stage least squared (2SLS) approach for the robustness test and endogeneity concerns. We find evidence of the negative impact of the Ukraine–Russia conflict on stock return of that stock markets. In addition, our finding indicates that the impact of this war on the mining construction and manufacturing sectors is greater than on other sectors because Russia and Ukraine are the key suppliers or exporters of mining and manufacturing sector. Our finding also indicates that Ukraine–Russia conflict largely affects stock return of Russian stocks because Russia is directly involved in the conflict.

Many Narratives or a Single Voice? The Role of Historical Policy in EU–Russia Relations

The purpose of the article is to analyse the process of change in Russian historical policy from a foreign policy perspective. The article hypothesizes that the historical policy can be considered as an indicator of changes in Russia’s foreign policy, allowing to infer the direction of its future development, playing both an ‘integrative’ and ‘disintegrative’ role. Using the example of the EU, the impact of Russia’s historical policy on the EU’s historical narrative is examined. While in the analysed context the new Russian historical narrative signalled a growing distrust and a more confrontational stance towards the EU (a disintegrative role), its unintended side effect was the construction of a common European historical narrative (an integrative role) pushed by the Central and Eastern European states in response to Russia’s aggressive rhetoric on historical issues, the interpretation of which few years earlier had divided the ‘old’ and ‘new’ member states.

The Foreign policy of the Euroepean Union and the political conflicts developed on the territory of Ukraine

The subject of the analytical reciew of the present work is the analysis of the key directions of the EU’s foreign policy in the political conflicts that have developed in Ukraine since 2014. The main findings of the study are based on the assessment of statements and performance of EU diplomats and senior officials in the Organization for Security and Coopperation in Europe using content and discourse analysis. In the scientific literature, the foreign policy of the EU is studied in a complex way, but its interaction with the post-Soviet conflicts, especially in the context of the OSCE platform, is less studied.   A scientific search of the presented problem and in-depth understanding of the issue shows that the development of clise bilateral relations between some EU member states and Russia reduces the implementation of the EU’s effective foreign policy tasks in Ukraine, because the EU considers that somewhat close rrelations with Russia are unavoidable.&nbsp

Geopolitical conflicts, sanctions and international knowledge flows: EU–Russia collaboration during the Ukraine crisis

AbstractThis article studies the development of scientific co‐publications between EU countries and Russia since the start of the Ukraine crisis in 2014. We investigate if economic sanctions and counter‐sanctions imposed during the crisis affected EU–Russia knowledge flows even before all science collaborations between the EU countries and Russia were eventually suspended as part of the EU sanctions in 2022. Our econometric analysis uses a gravity model framework and a comprehensive dataset covering more than 540 million scientific publications and 8.6 million international co‐publications for 35 countries (EU, BRICS, Belarus and Ukraine) during 1995–2018. Findings indicate that the imposition of EU sanctions and Russian counter‐sanctions from 2014 onwards had a significantly negative effect on EU–Russia co‐publication intensities. As a lower bound estimate, we find that sanctions reduced the EU–Russia scientific co‐publication intensity by 15% at the aggregate level. Effects are higher in specific scientific fields. We uncover transmission channels of this effect, for example, related to dual‐use technologies and growing resentments, and assess the robustness of our estimates. Time–dynamic regressions show that the sanctions effect on scientific collaboration increases over time. This underlines the susceptibility of global knowledge flows to geopolitical conflicts.

Restrictive COVID-19 policies in selected EU countries and Russia: an Institutional Approach

Based on empirical quantitative data, the article provides a comparative analysis of existing studies of the policy of countering COVID-19 infection in selected European Union countries and Russia, the specifics of restrictive governmental measures (including institutional dimension), and also provides a quantitative analysis of the relationship between the severity of epidemiological situation in a particular country, the stringency of governmental response measures, and the institutional characteristics of the country (including the quality of healthcare, management, the level of public trust in the government, value orientations, etc.), which determine the specifics of measures taken and their effectiveness. Using the developed index of the severity of the epidemiological situation, institutional characteristics that most affect the effectiveness of the measures applied and, if possible, allow combining the relatively easy passage of the pandemic with relatively lax measures were identified.

Demographic processes in the Baltic macro-region (1990-2022)

The article discusses the features and factors of the dynamics and territorial differentiation of the demographic development of the population of the Baltic macroregion in 1990 - 2022. Study have indicated, although the population of the macroregion is growing, and most of the countries located here have a migration population growth, the demographic situation cannot be considered to be satisfactory in any of its parts. Depopulation has been taking place everywhere for a long time, and there are no serious grounds for expecting, even in a fairly distant future, not only an expanded, but also a simple reproduction of the population. The population of the Baltic countries decreased catastrophically in 1990-2022. There are also territories in the Nordic countries, the Baltic regions of Germany and Poland, losing population and characterized by an intensive redistribution of residents from villages to cities, which is typical at the micro level for Russian regions as well. In the countries with a traditional market economy, characterized by a high migration influx from Asia and Africa, there are acute problems of migrant integration and / or the development of multiculturalism. At the initiative of Western partners, the cross-border mobility of the population and any (including educational and scientific ties) between the EU countries and Russia are limited. On the basis of the latest published statistical data, the listed and other problems of population dynamics in the macroregion are analyzed, its parts are typified according to the predominance of certain features of the natural and migration movement of the population, the existing and predicted demographic problems are assessed, particular attention is drawn to the need for their speedy solution.

Полилингвизм в эпоху постграмотности: философско-культурологическое обоснование и методико-педагогическая разработка модели полилингвального образования

The study proposes a conceptual model of post-literacy, multilingualism, and multilingual education in the age of post-literacy and presents models of language communities of world universities, as well as models of linguistic and cultural adaptation of immigrants in EU nations and Russian universities participating in Program 5-100.
 The researchers analyzed real adaptive practices in Yekaterinburg universities (Ural Federal University and Ural State Pedagogical University) using evidence from Chinese students and employees; studied the formation and development of multilingual communities in universities with full-time and remote acquisition, languages teaching tools and university loyalty formation tools during remote interactions in social networks on the Internet, as well as practices that promote tolerance as a pedagogical value in multilingual educational communities.
 The research findings include a list of issues in scientific and educational communications in the university’s multilingual space/community in the context of digitalization and expansion of the multilingual community due to the inclusion of speakers of languages other than world languages, as well as a list of issues related to the supply of reading materials corresponding to the level of complex texts of a new nature in the age of post-literacy to provide linguistic education in the multilingual environment. The researchers also offer ways of entry into, existence in, and exit from a temporal multilingual community, as well as continuous renewal and development of such communities.

The European Commission Against Gazprom: The Geo-Economic Conflict Over the Gas Market Regime in Europe

The aim of this article is to explain the reasons behind the conflict between the European Commission and Russia over the gas market regime in Europe. Using a geo-economic approach, it identifies the different and contradictory interests of the main actors in EU–Russia gas relations and how they influence this relationship. The analysis shows that attempts to improve their respective geo-economic position in the European Union and appropriate resource rent led to the fragmentation of the supply chain. Any cooperation between Russia and the European Union is complicated by the contradiction between the various actors’ interests.

Russia–EU energy dialogue in 2000–2014: Key priorities, stages, contradictions, and outcomes

Energy cooperation was one of the cornerstones of the European Union–Rus- sia relations and, in turn, was, to a large extent, shaped by the progress of the EU-Russia Energy Dialogue, which developed from 2000 to 2014. On the basis of a consistent critical analysis of official sources, the paper identifies internal and external determinants of the Russia-EU Energy Dialogue and assesses its general logic and dynamics, as well as its key outcomes. The author concludes that in the first five years of the Energy Dialogue it was the European Union who acted as its driving force, as the EU sought not only to ensure the supplies of Russian energy resources, but also to take control over their production and transporta- tion. A careful comparison of the Russia-EU Energy Dialogue key dimensions and the provisions of the Energy Charter Treaty allowed the author to identify yet another aim of the European Union, namely, to impose on Moscow the prin- ciples of a common European energy policy. However, these efforts encountered strong opposition from the Russian government. From 2006–2007 the conflict of interests had become all the more evident, as considerable changes took place both in the internal energy policy of Moscow and Brussels and Russia’s inter- national position. As a result, the content and structure of the Energy Dialogue changed: discussions on the creation of a single energy community and energy markets were overshadowed by issues of strategic planning and development of an early warning mechanism. Therefore, by 2014, when the EU abandoned the Energy Dialogue, its potential had been to a large extent exhausted. Nevertheless, the Dialogue provided Russia with extensive experience in interacting with the European Commission as a supranational body of the EU, and this experience might be in demand in the future.

The Empirical Evidence of EU–Russia Bilateral Trade under Sanctions and Oil Price Shocks

After the annexation of Crimea in 2014, many EU–Russia projects such as the concept of Strategic Partnerships, negotiations on the New Basic Agreement, and the abolishment of visa regime, among other important issues, were suspended. On top of that, the parties involved imposed mutual sanctions which seriously damaged bilateral trade relationships. The present article aims to analyse EU–Russia bilateral trade under the sanctions and low oil prices together with such factors as the growth of Russian and the EU’s GDPs per capita, geographical distance between parties and devaluation of Russian currency by applying a gravity model. Moreover, the model allows us to carry out simulations of circumstances as they would likely have unfolded had the sanctions not been imposed and if oil prices had remained at a reasonable level.

Внешнеторговые связи Германии: тренды прошедшего десятилетия

The article analyzes the most significant aspects of the evolution of foreign trade relations of the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG) for the period 2012–2021 – before and after the introduction of sanctions by the European Union against Eastern European states, including the Russian Federation, and counter-sanctions by the Russian Federation. The presented study is based on the latest materials from the IMF, UNCTAD and the German Federal Statistical Office (Statistisches Bundesamt; abbr. StBA, Destatis). Recently published official and author's data calculated on their basis made it possible to analyze the main shifts in the dynamics and geographical structure of Germany's foreign trade turnover over the past decade. The author shows that the current trends were formed under the significant influence of both changes in the commodity markets, ongoing trade conflicts, sanctions confrontation between western countries and the Russian Federation, and other destabilizing factors, among which were the difficulties in the process of recovering the world economy after the crisis shocks of 2020 due to large-scale spread of a new viral infection. It should be taken into account that the identified shifts in Germany’s foreign trade activities became a reality long before the aggravation of the Ukrainian situation that began in the first months of 2022, provoked by the United States to solve major geo-economic problems, including more effective implementation of the «disconnection’s paradigm» of the EU member states and Russia. The article presents the latest statistical materials, the author's calculated data, which are introduced into domestic scientific circulation for the first time.

Scenario approach to the assessment of development prospects of the Russian regions

The article describes the features of building and assessment of spatial development scenarios in long-term forecasts. The author used the scenario approach for qualitative and quantitative assessment of alternative strategies for regional development within the framework of the macroeconomic forecast for the development of the Russian economy. Further, the author analyzed the experience of developing spatial scenarios for the EU countries and Russia. Next, the longterm regional trends are presented, which, due to the high inertia of space, will determine spatial development in the future. The author also describes modern problems that significantly impact the choice of strategies for the regions. Prospects for spatial development the author assessed in the framework of three forecast scenarios. For two options of the macroeconomic forecast, the author calculated quantitative estimates of the spatial development parameters characterizing the scenarios. Relevant calculations the author performed using macroeconomic and interregional forecasting and analytical models. Finally, the author showed the advantages of the scenario of balanced growth from the standpoint of implementing national goals of social and economic development.

Russian-German Economic Relations in the Context of the Deepening Political Confrontation Between the Russian Federation and the European Union

Relevance. Today, Russian-German economic relations, on the one hand, are developing in the context of Russia ‒ EU relations, and on the other hand, between the Russian Federation and Germany, but they are weighed down by the influence of political factors. The traditional areas of economic cooperation received their first cracks due to the introduction of sanctions in 2014, but the “fourth” package of sanctions in March 2022 from the EU, which was successfully joined by the Scholz government, disrupted the world economic ties between countries that had been established for decades.The purpose is to assess the economic cooperation between Russia and Germany, taking into account the complicated political relations between the EU and the Russian Federation.Objectives: identify priority areas of cooperation between Russia and Germany at the present stage; highlight the constraining factors of economic relations between countries.Methods. A discursive analysis of the official statements of the heads of government was applied to study the qualitative and quantitative indicators of cooperation between the Russian Federation and Germany. The secondary statistical data obtained on the basis of the gravity modeling approach are analyzed.Results. The study showed that one of the most effectively developing industries is the investment of German companies in enterprises of Russian regions. The sanctions of the EU countries had a negative impact on certain high-tech sectors of the Russian economy, but Russian counter-sanctions on meat, milk and dairy products, as well as fruits and vegetables "hit" the consumer in the EU countries and Germany. The forecast of trade and economic relations in connection with the upcoming "fifth" package of EU sanctions against the Russian Federation is difficult.Conclusions. Germany occupied a significant place in trade, economic and investment cooperation with Russia. At the moment, unfounded accusations of Russia that our country is a “threat” to the European Union continue to be unraveled. Germany actively supports the EU in its course towards the introduction of new sanctions measures against the Russian Federation.