Life Cycle Cost Estimation Research Articles

Czech Armed Forces and Some Aspects of Helicopters Acquisition

Abstract After several years of discussion and decision-making approaches Army of the Czech Republic to implement the purchase of multipurpose helicopters to replace the previously used, morally and physically obsolete attack helicopters Mi-24 / 34. The process of acquisition consists of many stages; it is not a simple matter and has its pitfalls. It is also a big, expensive and long-term acquisition in which the poor implementation can cause problems that are likely to affect the Army of the Czech Republic and its Air Force for many years. One of the decision-making process inputs is an estimate of Life Cycle Cost (LCC). For the estimation, many methods can be used. The paper deals with application of system dynamics to LCC estimation process. Partial models of utilization and support Life Cycle phases are presented, which can be further developed according to consecutive data availability. An influence of different helicopter operating modes on a Life Cycle Cost is demonstrated by means of simulation in Vensim application. The models, after verification and validation, can be used to support the acquisition process.

Stochastic rail life cycle cost maintenance modelling using Monte Carlo simulation

The need for decision support systems to guide maintenance and renewal decisions for infrastructure is growing due to tighter budget requirements and the concurrent need to satisfy reliability, availability and safety requirements. The rail of the railway track is one of the most important components of the entire track structure and can significantly influence maintenance costs throughout the life cycle of the track. Estimation of life cycle cost is a popular decision support system. A calculated life cycle cost has inherent uncertainty associated with the reliability of the input data used in such a model. A stochastic life cycle cost model was developed for the rail of the railway track incorporating imperfect inspections. The model was implemented using Monte Carlo simulation in order to allow quantification of the associated uncertainty within the life cycle cost calculated. For a given set of conditions, an optimal renewal tonnage exists at which the rail should be renewed in order to minimise the mean life cycle cost. The optimal renewal tonnage and minimum attainable mean life cycle cost are dependent on the length of inspection interval, weld type used for maintenance as well as the cost of maintenance and inspection activities. It was found that the distribution of life cycle cost for a fixed renewal tonnage followed a log-normal probability distribution. The standard deviation of this distribution can be used as a metric to quantify uncertainty. Uncertainty increases with an increase in the length of inspection interval for a fixed rail renewal tonnage. With all other conditions fixed, it was found that the uncertainty in life cycle cost increases with an increase in the rail renewal tonnage. The relative contribution of uncertainty of the planned and unplanned maintenance costs towards the uncertainty in total life cycle cost was found to be dependent on the length of inspection interval.

Cost Estimation in Strategic Procurement Practices:Methodology and Applications in Indian Defense Sector

Estimation of cost plays very important and significant role in strategic procurement decisions. Cost is defined as an amount be paid or given up to get something in business, whereas estimate described as to form an approximate judgement or opinion regarding the worth, amount, size, weight etc. The ability to generate reliable cost estimates of a project, product or service is very critical for a Company to meet and execute its business requirements. Without this ability, Company is at risk of experiencing missed deadlines and performance shortfalls. In case of overestimate scenarios, companies could lead to loss of future orders against competition. This paper provides comprehensive review of various costing methods and its underlined assumptions specifically for defense industry. The unique fundamental characteristic of this sector is that sales are always restricted to Governments and their armed forces. The selection criteria by government remain to be through competitive tender bidding and based on L1 (Lowest bidder) selection. It is important to choosing a right and appropriate cost model based on its size, complexity, timeline & development stage both during participating and life cycle management to meet business objectives. During this descriptive research, various interviews and interactions done with key decision makers of International Defense Industry. It is observed that, Standard regular products follow costing methods like Expert judgment, price to win, Top-Down and Bottom-up approach, whereas complex & large ones are estimated using statistical based Parametric, COSYMO (constructive System Engineering Cost Model), Analogy, Engineering and actual costing techniques. In new era of highly sophisticated weapon systems and radars technology developments, software's are another big-ticket item in defense industry, while doing life cycle cost estimation. An attempt has also been made to highlight challenges that are faced by organizations specially those entering to the defense sector for the first time in India. Non- availability of existing structure, local industrial base, product lines, engineering capabilities & technology makes cost estimation more challenging. This paper also come up with suggestions that can be used as high level reference guide while calibrating international cost data points for using in India.

Techno-economic feasibility of off-grid solar irrigation for a rice paddy in Guilan province in Iran: A case study

In this study, a typical rice paddy in Guilan province of Iran is considered and the technical and economical feasibility of the solar powered pumping system is studied. The monthly mean daily solar irradiance has been studied for this area and the measured data is compared with European Photovoltaic Geographic Information System (EU PVGIS) model for Middle East, including Iran. The investigations imply that the average monthly mean daily solar irradiance in irrigation months are reported equal to 5.92kWh/m2/day by Guilan Meteorological Administration and 5.95kWh/m2/day by EU PVGIS. A mean monthly clearness index from 0.54 to 0.57, in irrigation period, gives Guilan province a good potential to employ photovoltaic (PV) pumping system. In this study, the appropriate size of the PV panels and the lifecycle cost estimation of PV pumping system in comparison with conventional systems are presented. Also, the area of the PV solar panel to supply required power of the pumping system for a rice paddy with specified area is calculated. Results show that though the initial outlay of the PV system is about 9 times of the conventional systems but the total lifecycle costs of the PV pumping system is just 65.6% costs of the conventional pumping system. Also in spite of high initial costs of the PV pumping system, it is found that after around 9years, the total costs of both systems would be equal to conventional one i.e. gasoline pumping system and after this time, the costs of the conventional pumping system will exceed the PV solar panel system.

Life cycle cost estimation and environmental valuation of coal mine tailings management

Sustainable mining management is increasingly seen as an important issue in achieving a social license to operate for mining companies. This study describes the life cycle cost (LCC) analysis and environmental valuation for several coal mine tailings management scenarios. The economic feasibility of six different options was assessed using the Net Present Value (NPV) and Benefit-Cost Analysis (BCA) methods. These options were belt press (OPT 1), tailings paste (OPT 2), thickened tailings (OPT 3), and OPT 1 with technology improvement and renewable energy sources (OPT 1A-C). The results revealed that OPT 1A (belt press technology with stack cell flotation) was the first preference in terms of LCC while OPT 1C (belt press technology with stack cell flotation and 10% wind energy) generated the highest benefits value (BCA) compared to the other options. The LCC and BCA components and the volume of GHG emissions were used to determine the best option. Normalization of these three elements resulted in the selection of Option 1C as being the most cost-effective option.

Analysis of the Requirements of an Early Life-cycle Cost Estimation Tool: An Industrial Survey

Cost estimation is a critical issue for many companies concerning both offers generation and company strategic evaluations. In this paper, a framework for early cost estimation has been proposed to some firms for an assessment of its main features. The aim of the industrial survey is to promote a discussion on the needs and the expectations regarding cost estimation in order to obtain feedbacks to be addresses in the implementation of a software tool. Gather data has led to a ranking of the main characteristics the tool should have.

Optimal sustainable life cycle maintenance strategies for port infrastructures

Port operations are highly important in the central economic and industrial regions which rely heavily on the use of port infrastructures. An economic and efficient maintenance strategy is essential to govern the normal running of port infrastructures and thus seaborne transportation. Many agencies worldwide have managed to develop maintenance strategies to ensure optimal levels of serviceability and safety for port infrastructures. However, there is not much information about how sustainable issues can be implemented in the maintenance planning. This paper proposes a methodology for evaluating, comparing and improving sustainability of maintenance strategies for port infrastructures. The method is developed based on a proposed randomized structural deterioration model. The costs due to retrofitting, operating loss and environmental loss are considered in the total life cycle cost estimation. The concept of utility function is utilized to serve as a criterion for finding the optimal strategy among the alternative maintenance strategies. An investigation is performed on a Tokyo wharf to demonstrate the proposed approach. The maintenance strategies for different structural elements in the port infrastructures are discussed. The results show that the proposed approach can provide more reliable information on the maintenance timing. The predicted cost bounds allow owners/risk managers to understand the current condition of the structure in several ways, which include both safe-side prediction and average prediction.

Evaluation of non-cost factors affecting the life cycle cost: an exploratory study

Purpose This paper aims to identify the main non-cost factors affecting accurate estimation of life cycle cost (LCC) in building projects. Design/methodology/approach Ten factors affecting LCC in building project cost estimates are identified through literature and interviews. A questionnaire survey is conducted to rank these factors in order of priority and provide the views of cost practitioners about the significance of these factors in the accurate estimation of LCC. The data from 138 construction building projects completed in UK were collected and analysed via multiple regression to discover the relationship between capital and LCCs and between non-cost factors and cost estimation at each stage of the life cycle (capital, operation, maintenance and LCC). Findings The results of analysis of existing LCC data of completing project and survey data from cost professionals are mostly consistent with many literature views and provide a reasonable description of the non-cost factors affecting the accuracy of estimates. Originality/value The value of this study is in the method used, which involves analysis of existing life data and survey data from cost professionals. The results provide a plausible description of the non-cost factors affecting the accuracy of estimates.

Simplified seismic life cycle cost estimation of a steel jacket offshore platform structure

The purpose of the present paper is to develop a simple methodology for seismic life cycle cost (LCC) estimation for a steel jacket offshore platform structure. This methodology accounts for accuracy of LCC modelling as well as simplicity of application. Accuracy is maintained through incorporating the effect of aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in the LCC estimation framework. Simplicity is achieved by using equivalent single-degree-of-freedom (ESDOF) system instead of the full structure and by eliminating full incremental dynamic analysis and fragility analysis. Instead, an approximate fragility curve and a localised incremental dynamic analysis curve are used along with a probabilistic simple closed-form solution for loss estimation. In the design of model structures, different bracing systems are used for the seismic design of the offshore platform, such as conventional and buckling-restrained braces. The proposed LCC methodology is validated through comparison with the results from a more rigorous method. It is found that even though the proposed methodology results in a slightly different solution compared to the reference method, the method can be used as an efficient tool for preliminary LCC evaluation of structures.

Eco-design case-based reasoning tool: The integration of ecological quality function deployment and case-based reasoning methods for supporting sustainable product design

Several methods and tools have been developed to facilitate sustainable product design, but they lack critical application of the ecological design (eco-design) process and economic costing, particularly during the conceptual design phase. This research study overcomes these deficiencies by integrating eco-design approaches across all phases of the product life cycle. It proposes an eco-design case-based reasoning tool that is integrated with the recently developed ecological quality function deployment method, which supports sustainable product design. The eco-design case-based reasoning tool is an intuitive decision-support tool that complements the ecological quality function deployment method and proposes solutions related to customers’ requirements and the environmental and economic impacts of the product. The ecological quality function deployment method ensures that customers’ needs are considered within the context of product sustainability. The novelty of this article is in the development of the eco-design case-based reasoning tool which is based on the premise that if experiences from the ecological quality function deployment process can be captured in some useful form, designers can refer to and learn from them. This approach helps industrial decision-makers propose solutions by reusing solutions from similar cases and from their past experiences. The novelty is in the way the cases are structured and new cases are generated, using life-cycle assessments, cost estimations, and information about related manufacturing processes and means of transportation. This article demonstrates the applicability of the proposed approach through an industrial case study.

Inferring shortfall costs and integrating environmental costs into optimal production levels for an all-you-care-to-eat food service operation

This study examines how optimal food production policies at an all-you-care-to-eat (AYCTE) facility would change were life cycle cost estimates of embodied CO2 included in the disposal costs associated with overproduction, in an aim to study production planning possibilities in a situation that places increased emphasis on the environmental impacts of overproduction. AYCTE operations exhibit a lack of revenue associated with each item served, since there is no per-item lost sales value incurred when demand exceeds supply; accordingly, the second objective of this research is to present a novel method for estimating shortfall costs in a setting with no marginal revenue per satisfied unit of demand. We examine empirical data from AYCTE operations at the University of Missouri's Campus Dining Services (CDS) to infer the per-item shortfall costs that are implied by CDS management's historical production decisions. Consistent with CDS management's stated aversion to shortfalls, we estimate shortfall values which are between 1.6 and 2.7 times larger than the procurement cost and between 30 and over 100 times larger than the disposal cost. Utilizing published estimates of life cycle CO2 and the social cost of carbon, we identify a per-portion environmental cost. We incorporate the environmental costs associated with wasted overproduction and the inferred shortfall cost estimates into a newsvendor model formulation, to identify new optimal production levels, illustrating this approach with application to a set of food items served by CDS. We find that optimal production levels are decreased significantly (18–25%) for food items with high environmental impacts (such as beef), and reduced less for foods with less embodied CO2.

Risk-Managed Lifecycle Costing for Asphalt Road Construction and Maintenance Projects under Performance-Based Contracts

AbstractTo date, few contractors have been involved in performance-based contracts (PBCs) for road construction and maintenance projects where they have to use lifecycle cost (LCC). The main drawback for using the LCC approach is the LCC assumptions used to address projects under high risk for contractors such as PBCs where the contractors are more than likely to be responsible for both the construction and maintenance of the road for a certain warranty period. This research was conducted to enhance LCC assumptions by introducing a risk management tool. Hence, the LCC will be based on more accurate and probable assumptions, and accordingly the results of the LCC estimate will be more reliable in the future for such risky projects. The research adopted a five step methodology through (1) identification of the risks, (2) quantification of the hot mix asphalt (HMA) costs through a cost breakdown structure (CBS), (3) comparative LCC calculations, (4) Monte Carlo scenario analysis, and (5) a demonstrative case...

Determination of hydrate inhibitor injection rate based on the life-cycle cost of the injection facility and mitigating measures

This study presents a framework for hydrate formation risk management. Hydrate formation accidents and the consequences of hydrate formation risk are defined by the initiation of hydrate formation and pipeline blockage due to hydrate formation, respectively. The hazards, preventive measures and mitigating measures for hydrate formation are presented in accordance with defined accidents and consequences. A life-cycle cost (LCC)-based hydrate formation risk management methodology is proposed that consists of four steps: construction of an exceedance curve for the durations of operational interruptions, construction of an exceedance curve for the frequency versus the monoethylene glycol (MEG) injection rate, selection of the MEG injection rate, and LCC estimation. Operational interruptions are quantified in terms of the frequency of hazard occurrence and their extent via exceedance curves for the durations of the operational interruptions. The next step of constructing the exceedance curve for the frequency of hydrate formation with respect to the MEG injection rate quantifies the frequency of the accidents for a given MEG injection rate. Because the failure rate and the repair time of equipment are discrete, only a set of representative MEG injection rates deserve further consideration in the LCC estimation. Two case studies are performed with topsides that have different process complexities, which lead to different frequencies of operational interruption.

Simplified structural deterioration model for reinforced concrete bridge piers under cyclic loading

Deterioration due to reinforcement corrosion represents a significant cause of damage to reinforced concrete bridges all over the world. Although numerous studies have identified the substantial influence that corrosion can have on the failure of concrete structures under seismic loads, there has been comparatively less work done on the modelling of structural vulnerability due to corrosion. Accurate and computationally efficient structural modelling of corrosion deterioration is an essential prerequisite for structural reliability or fragility prediction, or life cycle cost and impact estimation. In this paper, a simplified approach for modelling reinforced concrete bridge columns that have undergone deterioration due to chloride-induced reinforcement corrosion is presented. While several models of increasing complexity are evaluated, a simplified non-linear analytical model that accounts primarily for the reduction in the steel cross-section due to corrosion is the central focus of the paper. The accuracy of the simple model is validated by comparing analytical results with experimental tests on reinforced concrete columns subjected to accelerated corrosion. The model results show excellent agreement with the experimental tests, making it particularly suitable for applications in vulnerability or reliability analysis where numerous non-linear dynamic analyses are necessary, or for further downscale or upscale integration with materials-level or system-level models.

Sensitivity analysis on seismic life-cycle cost of a fixed-steel offshore platform structure

In this study sensitivity analyses were conducted to investigate the relative importance of different uncertain variables on the life-cycle cost (LCC) estimation of a steel jacket offshore platform subjected to seismic loads. The sensitivity analysis was conducted using different methods such as tornado diagram analysis (TDA), first-order second-moment (FOSM) and Latin hypercube sampling (LHS). The analysis results showed that the uncertain variables related to loss estimation and seismic hazard had a more dominant influence on the LCC variability compared to the other variables. Among the structural uncertain parameters, the variability in plastic hinge strength and modal damping ratio had the most significant impact on the LCC. Variability in the initial cost showed higher impact on LCC estimations compared to other cost component variables. It was also observed that the application of members with energy dissipation capability resulted in more economical design compared to use of conventional members.

ENGINEERING ECONOMICS AND LIFE CYCLE COST ANALYSIS

Life-cycle cost analysis (LCCA) is anevaluating tool to valuate the total financial/resource requirements for total ownership of a building. LCCA is effective when project options that fulfill the same task demands, having different initial costs and operational costs, needs to be examined in order to undertake the option that optimizes financial requirements. Building-related expenses can be furthercategorized into the following:  Initial Costs  Operation, Maintenance, and Repair Costs  Replacement Costs  Residual Values  Finance Charges  Non-Monetary Costs This article mainly focuses on the Maintenance and Repair cost analysis; giving probable trends for next 25 years for various elements using DSR, WPI and CPI. These trends are only applicable for the whole of Mumbai. Keyordsw: Life Cycle Cost, Maintenance and Repair cost. --------------------------------------------------------------------***---------------------------------------------------------------------1. LIFE CYCLE COST ANALYSIS .Life Cycle Cost Analysis is a method of estimating the economic performance of a building over its life period. It is also known as “whole cost accounting” or “total cost of ownership,” LCCA balances the intial stage investment with life period costs including owning cost and operating cost of that particular building. LCCA is calculated on the premises that different building design alternatives can accomplish the same functions with the same amount of efficiency. These options having different initial costs, operational costs, maintenance and repair costs and may also differ in life cycle periods. Considering a particular alternative, LCCA forecasts the total cost of building, including initial construction cost, operation and maintenance cost, for a particular life of the building, cited as “study period”. Life cycle cost analysis helps in maintaining a balance between the initial cost of any alternative process adopted and long term cost saving of that alternative process. LCCA also helps in narrowing the most cost effective alternative and also calculates the “payback” period of the increased cost. To estimate life cycle cost for allapplicable alternatives is not feasible, and therefore the guiding principle for LCCA considers the one which affects the long-term expenses. 1.1Importance of LCCA [1].As the CHART-1 below depicts 30 year cost analysis of a building’s life, including its construction costs, its maintenance costs, operation costs, and utility costs. CHART–1:30-YEAR ANALYSIS Since it is evident that for a 30-year period, maintenance cost accounts nearly 6% of the total cost, the Maintenance and Repair cost analysis will be the prime focus of this article. 2. MAINTENANCE AND REPAIR Building repairs and maintenance mainly consists ofconserving proper state of a building, its functions and utilities in routine use. The types of building repair and maintenance are:  Day to day repairs service facilities  Annual repairs  Special repairs  Additions and alterations  Preventive maintenance 28 % 6 % 4 % 4 % 58 % 30-YEARS LIFE CYCLE COST (%) UTILITIES MAINTENANCE SERVICES SYSTEM REPLACEMENT IJRET: International Journal of Research in Engineering and Technology eISSN: 2319-1163 | pISSN: 2321-7308 _______________________________________________________________________________________ Volume: 05 Issue: 03 | Mar-2016, Available @ http://www.ijret.org 391 3. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY The maintenance and repair costs are found for various elements that are subjected to maintenance and repairs. The cost of these elements are gathered from the DISTRICT SCHEDULE OF RATES OF MUMBAI AND SUBURBAN AREA over the last 15 years ie. from year 2001. SinceDISTRICT SCHEDULE OF RATES OF MUMBAI AND SUBURBAN AREA is used, these trnds are only applicable to Mumbai district. These rates are consideredas the basis for the projected cost over the next 25 years ie. till year 2040. Basic rates for cistern fittings and labour wages have been collected from the WHOLESALE PRICE INDEX and CONSUMER PRICE INDEX respectively corresponding forecast is developed. Forecasts are developed with the help of trendlines characterized by specific curve equations thereby giving projected rates. 4. ELEMENTS CONSIDERED FOR MAINTENANCE Next 25 years of cost projections for following maintenance elements have been determined:1. INTERNAL PLASTERING 2. EXTERNAL PLASTERING 3. INTERNAL OIL PAINTING 4. CISTERN FITTINGS 5. DEDO TILING 6. FLOORING The main reason behind selecting these elements lies in the fact that these maintenance and repair parameters are the most common and most widely subjected in reference to maintenance and repair works. 4.1 Internal Plastering DESCRIPTION: The analysis considers internal plastering being undertaken in single coat, having 12 mm thickness. The plaster is prepared in cement to water ratio 1:5. Cost of neeru finish has been neglected in this analysis. The cost of scaffolding required and curing provided has been considered. Chart 2: Cost Projections For Internal Plastering Table 1: Cost Projections For Internal Plastering YEARS PROJECTED COST(Rs/Sqm) YEARS PROJECTED COST(Rs/Sqm) 2016 263.5237 2029 1030.573 2017 292.6699 203

Evaluation of Life Cycle Cost for Wave-dissipating Works Considering Occurrence Probability of High Waves

ABSTRACT Ota, T.; Kawamura, H.; Matsumi Y., and Hirayama, T., 2016. Evaluation of life cycle cost for wave-dissipating works considering occurrence probability of high waves. In: Vila-Concejo, A.; Bruce, E.; Kennedy, D.M., and McCarroll, R.J. (eds.), Proceedings of the 14th International Coastal Symposium (Sydney, Australia). Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue, No. 75, pp. 675–679. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. This study deals with the influences of occurrence frequency and the duration of high waves on estimation of life cycle cost (LCC) for wave-dissipating works that consist of wave-dissipating blocks using Monte Carlo simulation. LCC is defined as sum of an initial construction cost and an expected repair cost of wave-dissipating blocks. As analysis results of high waves at four observation stations in NOWPHAS, the occurrence frequency of high waves can be approximated by the Poisson distribution. In the computation of LCC, occurrence frequency of high waves is assumed as once a ye...

Engineered Resilience for Complex Systems as a Predictor for Cost Overruns

ABSTRACTThe ever‐increasing complexity of large‐scale, ubiquitous systems, and internetworked Systems of Systems (SoS), have resulted in non‐linear challenges for systems engineering and program management such as interdependent, dynamic, and emergent behaviors that influence design and development cost. In order to invest, make decisions, and effectively manage technology developments, “should‐cost” estimates are used to baseline systems to what is considered affordable over the lifecycle. In addition to a higher likelihood for overrun, complex systems traditionally require major acquisitions, budgets, and development schedules where failure results in increased cost consequences. Behavioral properties (such as emergence) can influence performance resulting in dynamic and unpredictable effects on networked platform operation, system capability, and mission effectiveness. Data analyzed from 526 major weapons programs and from subject‐matter expert judgment are explored to propose: (1) a new approach to quantify these risks using prescriptive measures related to complexity, adaptability, and resilience, (2) identify leading indicators to reduce the likelihood of cost overrun, (3) suggest measurements based on research findings and systems heuristics to improve lifecycle cost estimation, and (4) present applications of Engineering Resilience to meet the growing complexity, interdependence, and scale of systems under constrained budgets with a growing demand for affordability.

Life Cycle Cost-Estimation Model for Building, Operating, and Maintaining High-Speed Rail Systems

This paper develops a cost-estimation model for building, operating, and maintaining a high-speed rail (HSR) system. The model introduces a macroscopic life cycle cost approach that encompasses HSR systems, the interactions between the subsystems, and the variability of the systems. For this reason, costs associated with HSR systems were categorized into operations, infrastructure, maintenance, and external costs, and their relationships and behaviors were modeled over their lifetime. A hypothetical HSR line was assumed to illustrate how the model behaves with respect to demand, speed, length, and the infrastructure and rolling stock types. The results show that articulated train sets provide a lower life cycle cost than nonarticulated sets, ceteris paribus. The results also indicate that the designs proposed by most manufacturers are less interesting from a life cycle cost perspective.

Estimation of life-cycle costs of buildings: regression vs artificial neural network

Purpose– The purpose of this paper is to compare the performance of regression and artificial-neural-networks (ANNs) methods to estimate the running cost of building projects towards improved accuracy.Design/methodology/approach– A data set of 20 building projects is used to test the performance of these two (ANNs/regression) models in estimating running cost. The concept of cost-significant-items is identified as important in assisting estimation. In addition, a stepwise technique is used to eliminate insignificant factors in regression modelling. A connection weight method is applied to determine the importance of cost factors in the performance of ANNs.Findings– The results illustrate that the value of the coefficient of determination=99.75 per cent for ANNs model(s), with a value of 98.1 per cent utilising multiple regression (MR) model(s); second, the mean percentage error (MPE) for ANNs at a testing stage is 0.179, which is less than that of the MPE gained through MR modelling of 1.28; and third, the average accuracy is 99 per cent for ANNs model(s) and 97 per cent for MR model(s). On the basis of these results, it is concluded that an ANNs model is superior to a MR model when predicting running cost of building projects.Research limitations/implications– A means for continuous improvement for the performance of the models accuracy has been established; this may be further enhanced by future extended sample.Originality/value– This work extends the knowledge base of life-cycle estimation where ANNs method has been found to reduce preparation time consumed and increasing accuracy improvement of the cost estimation.