Estimates Of Effective Population Size Research Articles

Genomic evidence for climate-linked diversity loss and increased vulnerability of wild barley spanning 28 years of climate warming

The information on how plant populations respond genetically to climate warming is scarce. Here, landscape genomic and machine learning approaches were integrated to assess genetic response of 10 wild barley (Hordeum vulgare ssp. spontaneum; WB) populations in the past and future, using whole genomic sequencing (WGS) data. The WB populations were sampled in 1980 and again in 2008. Phylogeny of accessions was roughly in conformity with sampling sites, which accompanied by admixture/introgressions. The 28-y climate warming resulted in decreased genetic diversity, increased selection pressure, and an increase in deleterious single nucleotide polymorphism (dSNP) numbers, heterozygous deleterious and total deleterious burdens for WB. Genome-environment associations identified some candidate genes belonging to peroxidase family (HORVU2Hr1G057450, HORVU4Hr1G052060 and HORVU4Hr1G057210) and heat shock protein 70 family (HORVU2Hr1G112630). The gene HORVU2Hr1G120170 identified by selective sweep analysis was under strong selection during the climate warming of the 28-y, and its derived haplotypes were fixed by WB when faced with the 28-y increasingly severe environment. Temperature variables were found to be more important than precipitation variables in influencing genomic variation, with an eco-physiological index gdd5 (growing degree-days at the baseline threshold temperature of 5 °C) being the most important determinant. Gradient forest modelling revealed higher predicted genomic vulnerability in Sede Boqer under future climate scenarios at 2041–2070 and 2071–2100. Additionally, estimates of effective population size (Ne) tracing back to 250 years indicated a forward decline in all populations over time. Our assessment about past genetic response and future vulnerability of WB under climate warming is crucial for informing conservation efforts for wild cereals and rational use strategies.

Unveiling the evolutionary history of lingonberry (Vaccinium vitis-idaea L.) through genome sequencing and assembly of European and North American subspecies.

Lingonberry (Vaccinium vitis-idaea L.) produces tiny red berries that are tart and nutty in flavor. It grows widely in the circumpolar region, including Scandinavia, northern parts of Eurasia, Alaska, and Canada. Although cultivation is currently limited, the plant has a long history of cultural use among indigenous communities. Given its potential as a food source, genomic resources for lingonberry are significantly lacking. To advance genomic knowledge, the genomes for 2 subspecies of lingonberry (V. vitis-idaea ssp. minus and ssp. vitis-idaea var. 'Red Candy') were sequenced and de novo assembled into contig-level assemblies. The assemblies were scaffolded using the bilberry genome (Vaccinium myrtillus) to generate a chromosome-anchored reference genome consisting of 12 chromosomes each with a total length of 548.07 Mb [contig N50 = 1.17 Mb, BUSCO (C%) = 96.5%] for ssp. vitis-idaea and 518.70 Mb [contig N50 = 1.40 Mb, BUSCO (C%) = 96.9%] for ssp. minus. RNA-seq-based gene annotation identified 27,243 and 25,718 genes on the respective assembly, and transposable element detection methods found that 45.82 and 44.58% of the genome were repeats. Phylogenetic analysis confirmed that lingonberry was most closely related to bilberry and was more closely related to blueberries than cranberries. Estimates of past effective population size suggested a continuous decline over the past 1-3 MYA, possibly due to the impacts of repeated glacial cycles during the Pleistocene leading to frequent population fragmentation. The genomic resource created in this study can be used to identify industry-relevant genes (e.g. anthocyanin production), infer phylogeny, and call sequence-level variants (e.g. SNPs) in future research.

Genomic variation in montane bumblebees in Scandinavia: High levels of intraspecific diversity despite population vulnerability.

Populations of many bumblebee species are declining, with distributions shifting northwards to track suitable climates. Climate change is considered a major contributing factor. Arctic species are particularly vulnerable as they cannot shift further north, making assessment of their population viability important. Analysis of levels of whole-genome variation is a powerful way to analyse population declines and fragmentation. Here, we use genome sequencing to analyse genetic variation in seven species of bumblebee from the Scandinavian mountains, including two classified as vulnerable. We sequenced 333 samples from across the ranges of these species in Sweden. Estimates of effective population size (NE ) vary from ~55,000 for species with restricted high alpine distributions to 220,000 for more widespread species. Population fragmentation is generally very low or undetectable over large distances in the mountains, suggesting an absence of barriers to gene flow. The relatively high NE and low population structure indicate that none of the species are at immediate risk of negative genetic effects caused by high levels of genetic drift. However, reconstruction of historical fluctuations in NE indicates that the arctic specialist species Bombus hyperboreus has experienced population declines since the last ice age and we detected one highly inbred diploid male of this species close to the southern limit of its range, potentially indicating elevated genetic load. Although the levels of genetic variation in montane bumblebee populations are currently relatively high, their ranges are predicted to shrink drastically due to the effects of climate change and monitoring is essential to detect future population declines.

Demographic history shapes North American gray wolf genomic diversity and informs species' conservation.

Effective population size estimates are critical information needed for evolutionary predictions and conservation decisions. This is particularly true for species with social factors that restrict access to breeding or experience repeated fluctuations in population size across generations. We investigated the genomic estimates of effective population size along with diversity, subdivision, and inbreeding from 162,109 minimally filtered and 81,595 statistically neutral and unlinked SNPs genotyped in 437 grey wolf samples from North America collected between 1986 and 2021. We found genetic structure across North America, represented by three distinct demographic histories of western, central, and eastern regions of the continent. Further, grey wolves in the northern Rocky Mountains have lower genomic diversity than wolves of the western Great Lakes and have declined over time. Effective population size estimates revealed the historical signatures of continental efforts of predator extermination, despite a quarter century of recovery efforts. We are the first to provide molecular estimates of effective population size across distinct grey wolf populations in North America, which ranged between Ne ~ 275 and 3050 since early 1980s. We provide data that inform managers regarding the status and importance of effective population size estimates for grey wolf conservation, which are on average 5.2-9.3% of census estimates for this species. We show that while grey wolves fall above minimum effective population sizes needed to avoid extinction due to inbreeding depression in the short term, they are below sizes predicted to be necessary to avoid long-term risk of extinction.

Impact of population structure in the estimation of recent historical effective population size by the software GONE

BackgroundEffective population size (Ne) is a crucial parameter in conservation genetics and animal breeding. A recent method, implemented by the software GONE, has been shown to be rather accurate in estimating recent historical changes in Ne from a single sample of individuals. However, GONE estimations assume that the population being studied has remained isolated for a period of time, that is, without migration or confluence of other populations. If this occurs, the estimates of Ne can be heavily biased. In this paper, we evaluate the impact of migration and admixture on the estimates of historical Ne provided by GONE through a series of computer simulations considering several scenarios: (a) the mixture of two or more ancestral populations; (b) subpopulations that continuously exchange individuals through migration; (c) populations receiving migrants from a large source; and (d) populations with balanced systems of chromosomal inversions, which also generate genetic structure.ResultsOur results indicate that the estimates of historical Ne provided by GONE may be substantially biased when there has been a recent mixture of populations that were previously separated for a long period of time. Similarly, biases may occur when the rate of continued migration between populations is low, or when chromosomal inversions are present at high frequencies. However, some biases due to population structuring can be eliminated by conducting population structure analyses and restricting the estimation to the differentiated groups. In addition, disregarding the genomic regions that are involved in inversions can also remove biases in the estimates of Ne.ConclusionsDifferent kinds of deviations from isolation and panmixia of the populations can generate biases in the recent historical estimates of Ne. Therefore, estimation of past demography could benefit from performing population structure analyses beforehand, by mitigating the impact of these biases on historical Ne estimates.

Estimation of the contemporary effective population size from SNP data while accounting for mating structure.

A new method is developed to estimate the contemporary effective population size (Ne ) from linkage disequilibrium (LD) between SNPs without information on their location, which is the usual scenario in non-model species. The general theory of linkage disequilibrium is extended to include the contribution of full-sibs to the measure of LD, leading naturally to the estimation of Ne in monogamous and polygamous mating systems, as well as in multiparous species, and with non-random distributions of full-sib family size due to selection or other causes. Prediction of confidence intervals for Ne estimates was solved using a small artificial neural network trained on a dataset of over 105 simulation results. The method, implemented in a user-friendly and fast software (currentNe), is able to estimate Ne even in problematic scenarios with large population sizes or small sample sizes and provides confidence intervals that are more consistent than resampling methods.

The novel IMAGE001 genotyping array as a valuable alternative for genetic diversity screening in chicken: a demonstration in a local chicken breed in Belgium

Screening for genetic diversity in livestock species breeds is of utmost importance, especially for local, small populations that are at the risk of extinction. Luckily, recent developments in technology increase access to genotyping, also for numerically small breeds. One of these new technologies is the IMAGE001 single nucleotide polymorphism genotyping array that includes markers for 6 different species (cow, pig, sheep, chicken, horse and goat). For our current study, we studied the Turkey-headed Malines chicken, a local chicken breed in Belgium, for the first time. A total of 110 animals were genotyped, together with 29 samples from 4 supposedly related breeds. The genotypes were used to assess the genetic diversity of this local breed. Our analysis revealed an average inbreeding coefficient of 0.20 through runs of homozygosity analysis, and effective population size estimation based on linkage disequilibrium indicated a low genetic diversity (Ne=34). Moreover, a principal component analysis and a genetic differentiation study (FST) were performed using these marker data to position the Turkey-headed Malines relative to the 4 other indigenous Belgian chicken breeds. Finally, we discussed the practical implications of the overlap between the IMAGE001 array and other existing chicken genotyping arrays. This study is the first use of the novel IMAGE001 array to evaluate a local chicken breed, and demonstrates it as a viable option for genomic characterization a breed. Moreover, with this research, we are able to provide a good basis for further evaluation of the Belgian chicken heritage.

Genetic erosion in an endangered desert fish during a megadrought despite long-term supportive breeding.

Human water use combined with a recent megadrought have reduced river and stream flow through the southwest United States and led to periodic drying of formerly perennial river segments. Reductions in snowmelt runoff and increased extent of drying collectively threaten short-lived, obligate aquatic species, including the endangered Rio Grande silvery minnow (Hybognathus amarus). This species is subject to boom-and-bust population dynamics, under which large fluctuations in abundance are expected to lower estimates of effective population size and erode genetic diversity over time. Rates of diversity loss are also affected by additions of hatchery-origin fish used to supplement the wild population. We used demographic and genetic data from wild and hatchery individuals to examine the relationship of genetic diversity and effective population size to abundance over the last two decades. Genetic diversity was low during the early 2000s, but diversity and demographic metrics stabilized after the hatchery program was initiated and environmental conditions improved. Yet, from 2017 onward, allelic diversity declined (Cohen's d = 1.34) and remained low despite hatchery stocking and brief wild population recovery. Across the time series, single-sample estimates of effective population size based on linkage disequilibrium (LD Ne ) were positively associated (r = 0.53) with wild abundance and total abundance, but as the proportion of hatchery-origin spawners increased, LD Ne declined (r = -0.55). Megadrought limited wild spawner abundance and precluded refreshment of hatchery brood stocks with wild fish; hence, we predict a riverine population increasingly dominated by hatchery-origin individuals and accelerated loss of genetic diversity despite supplementation. We recommend an adaptive and accelerated management plan that integrates river flow management and hatchery operations to slow the pace of genetic diversity loss exacerbated by megadrought.

Genetic analysis of federally endangered Cape Sable seaside sparrow subpopulations in the Greater Everglades, USA

The federally endangered Cape Sable seaside sparrow (Ammospiza maritima mirabilis) is endemic to the Greater Everglades ecosystem in southern Florida, inhabiting fragmented marl prairies in six individual subpopulations. The subspecies is threatened by loss of breeding habitat from fire and water management. Genetic information is severely limited for the subspecies but could help inform decisions regarding subpopulation protections and potential translocations for genetic rescue. To provide genetic data and inform management efforts, feather samples were collected across five subpopulations (designated A–E) and protocols were tested to optimize DNA extraction yields. We assessed four mitochondrial DNA markers (N = 36–69) and 12 nuclear microsatellite loci (N = 55) in 108 sparrows. Mitochondrial DNA sequences revealed low haplotype diversity, with NADH dehydrogenase-2 haplotypes matching to most other extant subspecies and to the Atlantic coast subspecies. Nuclear diversity was low compared to other subspecies, but similar across subpopulations. Samples grouped as one population when analyzed by Principal Component Analysis, Bayesian modelling and genetic distance metrics. Limited genetic emigration was detected from one putative migrant. Relatedness was significantly different for sparrows in the most geographically distant subpopulation (A), likely reflecting high self-recruitment and natal site fidelity (P = 0.003). The low to moderate effective population size (NE = 202.4; NE:NC = 0.06) and generation time estimates indicated that unique genetic variation could be lost quickly during stochastic events. The sample sizes were limited, which reduced the power to comprehensively address recent population size reductions and any subsequent loss of genetic diversity.

An empirical test of the estimation of historical effective population size using Drosophila melanogaster.

The availability of a large number of high-density markers (SNPs) allows the estimation of historical effective population size (Ne ) from linkage disequilibrium between loci. A recent refinement of methods to estimate historical Ne from the recent past has been shown to be rather accurate with simulation data. The method has also been applied to real data for numerous species. However, the simulation data cannot encompass all the complexities of real genomes, and the performance of any estimation method with real data is always uncertain, as the true demography of the populations is not known. Here, we carried out an experimental design with Drosophila melanogaster to test the method with real data following a known demographic history. We used a population maintained in the laboratory with a constant census size of about 2800 individuals and subjected the population to a drastic decline to a size of 100 individuals. After a few generations, the population was expanded back to the previous size and after a few further generations again expanded to twice the initial size. Estimates of historical Ne were obtained with the software GONE both for autosomal and X chromosomes from samples of 17 individuals sequenced for the whole genome. Estimates of the historical effective size were able to infer the patterns of changes that occurred in the populations showing generally good performance of the method. We discuss the limitations of the method and the application of the software carried out so far.

Genome-wide study of linkage disequilibrium, population structure, and inbreeding in Iranian indigenous sheep breeds.

Knowledge of linkage disequilibrium (LD), genetic structure and genetic diversity are some key parameters to study the breeding history of indigenous small ruminants. In this study, the OvineSNP50 Bead Chip array was used to estimate and compare LD, genetic diversity, effective population size (Ne) and genomic inbreeding in 186 individuals, from three Iranian indigenous sheep breeds consisting of Baluchi (n = 96), Lori-Bakhtiari (n = 47) and Zel (n = 47). The results of principal component analysis (PCA) revealed that all animals were allocated to the groups that they sampled and the admixture analysis revealed that the structure within the populations is best explained when separated into three groups (K = 3). The average r2 values estimated between adjacent single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at distances up to 10Kb, were 0.388±0.324, 0.353±0.311, and 0.333±0.309 for Baluchi, Lori-Bakhtiari and Zel, respectively. Estimation of genetic diversity and effective population size (Ne) showed that the Zel breed had the highest heterozygosity and Ne, whereas the lowest value was found in Baluchi breed. Estimation of genomic inbreeding using FROH (based on the long stretches of consecutive homozygous genotypes) showed the highest inbreeding coefficient in Baluchi and the lowest in Zel breed that could be due to higher pressure of artificial selection on Baluchi breed. The results of genomic inbreeding and Ne showed an increase in sharing haplotypes in Baluchi, leading to the enlargement of LD and the consequences of linkage disequilibrium and haplotype blocks confirmed this point. Also, the persistence of the LD phase between Zel and Lori-Bakhtiari was highest indicating that these two breeds would be combined in a multi-breed training population in genomic selection studies.

A new and almost perfectly accurate approximation of the eigenvalue effective population size of a dioecious population: comparisons with other estimates and detailed proofs

The effective population size is an important concept in population genetics. It corresponds to a measure of the speed at which genetic drift affects a given population. Moreover, this is most of the time the only kind of population size that empirical population genetics can give access to. Dioecious populations are expected to display excesses of heterozygosity as compared to monoecious panmictic populations, as measured by Wright's FIS. It can be shown that these excesses are negatively correlated with the population size. This is why FIS can be used to estimate the eigenvalue effective population size of dioecious populations. In this paper, we propose a new approximation that provides a very accurate estimate of the eigenvalue effective population size of a dioecious population as a function of the real population size. We then explore the accuracy of different FIS-based methods using the leading eigenvalue of transition matrices or coalescence. It appears that the eigenvalue-based method provides more accurate results in very small populations, probably due to approximations made by the coalescence approach that are less valid in such situations. We also discuss the applicability of this method in the field.

Large effective size as determinant of population persistence in Anostraca (Crustacea: Branchiopoda)

The fairy shrimp Branchinectella media, because of its passive dispersal capacity and scarce and irregularly distributed habitats (temporary saline aquatic systems), is an intriguing organism from a population genomics and conservation perspective. Stochasticity of dispersal events and the irregular distribution of its habitat might lead to low levels of population connectivity and genetic diversity, and consequently, populations with limited persistence through time. Indeed, by using genomic data (SNPs), we found a strong genetic structure among some of the geographically isolated Iberian populations of B. media. Interestingly, we also obtained high estimates of effective population sizes. Lack of suitable habitat between populations (absence of a “stepping stone” network) and strong genetic differentiation suggest limited dispersal success in B. media. However, the high effective population sizes observed ensure persistence of B. media populations against genetic stochasticity (genetic drift). These results indicate that rescue-effect might not be essential for population persistence if they maintain high effective population sizes able to hold adequate levels of genetic diversity. Should high population sizes be reported in other low dispersing Anostraca, one might be optimistic with regard to their conservation status and fate, provided that their natural habitats remain undisturbed.

Conservation Genetic Analysis of Blanding’s Turtles across Ohio, Indiana, and Michigan

The Blanding’s Turtle (Emydoidea blandingii) is a species in need of conservation across much of its geographic range. A key aspect to conserving a species is understanding the genetic diversity and population structure across the landscape. Several researchers have focused on E. blandingii genetic diversity in the northeastern United States, Canada, and parts of the Midwestern United States; however, little investigation has been carried out on localities within the Great Lakes region of Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio. Understanding genetic trends within this region will assist with conservation planning by documenting levels of genetic variation within and among localities and developing hypotheses that have led to the observed patterns. We used 14 microsatellite loci to characterize the genetic diversity of E. blandingii in 16 localities in Indiana, Ohio, and southeast Michigan (with one northwestern locality). Overall, genetic diversity within localities tended to be high and little differentiation was observed among sample localities. No consistent evidence of bottlenecks was detected, and effective population size (Ne) estimates were generally high, but likely biased by sample size. A minimum of two clusters, and as many as seven clusters in a hierarchical analysis, were identified using three methods for grouping individuals (STRUCTURE, TESS3r, and sPCA). A correlation between geographic distance and genetic differentiation (isolation by distance) was observed. The long lifespan and historic gene flow of E. blandingii is likely responsible for the observed genetic diversity and lack of differentiation between localities. This should not suggest that populations are secure in the Great Lakes Region. Modeling aimed at estimating future genetic variation in populations under realistic demographic scenarios indicates that many localities in the region are likely to be vulnerable to genetic loss in the next 200 years.

Review of population history reconstruction methods in conservation biology

Demographic history reconstruction is based on the estimation of effective population size (Ne), which is inferred and interpreted in various fields of evolutionary and conservation biology. Interest in Ne estimation is growing, as the key evolutionary forces and their are linked to Ne, and genetic data become increasingly accessible. However, what is effective population size, and how can we obtain an estimate of effective population size? In this review, we describe the history of the term Ne and explore existing methods for obtaining historical and contemporary estimates of changes in effective population size. We provide a detailed overview of methods based on sequential Markovian coalescence (SMC), generalized phylogenetic coalescence (G-PhoCS), identity by descent (IBD) and identity by state (IBS) similarity, as well as methods using allele frequency spectrum (AFS). For each method, we briefly summarize the underlying theory and note its advantages and disadvantages. In the final section of the review, we present examples of the use of these methods for various non-model species with conservation status.

Reproductive Success Dynamics Could Limit Precision in Close-Kin Mark–Recapture Abundance Estimation for Atlantic Goliath Grouper (Epinephelus itajara)

Extra-Poisson variance in annual reproductive success can affect the precision of abundance estimates made using ‘close-kin’ mark–recapture procedures. However, empirical evaluation of that variance in natural marine populations can be daunting. Here, a scaling method was used to extend a discrete-time, age-structured model, facilitating investigation of annual and lifetime reproductive success dynamics in Epinephelus itajara. Life tables were synthesized from fishery assessment vital rates and life history measures. For model scaling, a precise empirical estimate of effective population size for the studied population was utilized as the independent variable, and model sensitivity to an informative range of adult abundance was evaluated. The potential for sex reversal to impact reproductive success dynamics was also investigated, albeit in the absence of selective fishing pressure and potential compensatory or depensatory responses. Close-kin relationships in a genetic sample of ~300 adults collected from spawning sites in the Florida Atlantic included numerous full-sibling pairs and multi-sibling families, which is unusual for long-lived, iteroparous marine populations with broadly dispersed larvae. The highly overdispersed reproductive success dynamics modeled for this population and its atypical kinship distribution could have ramifications for planned close-kin mark–recapture analyses. The low observed effective size also has conservation implications. Both issues warrant continued genetic monitoring.

Estimates of Effective Population Size in Subdivided Populations

Estimates of Effective Population Size in Subdivided Populations

Development of a new SNP panel for bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus)

Population genetic research is a critical tool for the conservation and management of marine mammals and other species. The bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus) is subject to aboriginal subsistence hunting in Alaska, Canada, Chukotka, and Greenland and managed by the International Whaling Commission for all those countries except Canada. Genetic studies support conservation management plans and the determination of safe hunting quotas by providing information on levels of genetic diversity, estimates of abundance and effective population size, and stock separation. Because bowhead populations are monitored in several countries, including genetic monitoring, there is a need for methods that can be consistently used in multiple labs that provide comparable data that can be publicly shared and built upon by successive studies. Here we present a new panel of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), derived from multiple bowhead populations, that meet those criteria. We describe the use of the Fluidigm SNPtype assay for analyzing 69 autosomal, 6 X-chromosome, and 1 Y-chromosome SNPs. Results indicate that the methods herein are reliable and have low error rates. Because SNPs are discrete sequence-based genetic markers, the panel of loci described here can be replicated, used in different labs, and are directly comparable, making SNPs more useful than existing microsatellite markers.

Genetic variability and <i>ex situ</i> conservation strategies for the neotropical tree <i>Parkia platycephala</i> Benth.

Parkia platycephala, known commonly as faveira, is a native species that occurs widely throughout Brazil and has high nutritional value and ecological potential. The objective of this study was to estimate the genetic variability in a P. platycephala provenance and progeny test. The test was established using a randomized block design, with 45 progenies from three provenances. The evaluated quantitative traits included height (HEI), diameter at ground level (DGL), and diameter below the first bifurcation (DFB). The data were submitted to Restricted Maximum Likelihood/Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (REML/BLUP) analysis, from which estimates of genetic parameters, genetic correlations, BLUPs, genetic gains, and effective population size were obtained. Estimates of individual narrow sense heritability (h2a) and within progeny heritability (h2w) ranged from low to moderate (0.01 a 0.39), with the highest values observed for DGL (0.32 and 0.39, respectively). The coefficient of individual variation (CVgi(%)) and between progeny genetic variation (CVgp(%)) indicate the existence of genetic variability between and within provenances. The FST vaues demonstrate low to moderate genetic differentiation among the three populations, and genetic correlations between traits were all positive and significant. The results obtained show that there is genetic variability between the studied provenances and progenies. This ensures not only the ex situ conservation of the species, but it can also be exploited in breeding programs.

Comparing estimates of census and effective population size in an endangered amphibian

AbstractThe field of conservation has seen a shift in focus from monitoring trends in census population size to trends in ‘effective’ population size. Numerous genetic methods exist for estimating effective population size, resulting in uncertainty among conservation practitioners as to which methods are most appropriate when conducting population assessments or evaluating recovery efforts. Demographic approaches offer a promising avenue to provide a link between census and effective population size using life‐history information, but rarely do studies have all three sources of data (genetic, demographic, life history) necessary to perform an explicit evaluation of their performance. Using data from a long‐term study of reticulated flatwoods salamanders (Ambystoma bishopi) in western Florida, USA, we assessed the magnitude of temporal variation in census population sizes and the effective number of breeders of two breeding populations to (1) document changes in the number of breeding adults over the 9‐year study duration, (2) determine whether and provide similar information about population size and trends and (3) compare alternative demographic and genetic approaches for estimating . We found that genetic estimates of , particularly if averaged across multiple estimation methods, closely tracked spatiotemporal variation in . Demographic estimates of also closely tracked but were sensitive to the assumed variance in reproductive success. In the absence of genetic information, detailed knowledge of mating systems and the environmental factors that skew reproductive contributions appear necessary for demographic to reliably inform management decisions. In these populations, appears too small (<40 individuals) to confer long‐term genetic resilience, highlighting the importance of restoring landscape connectivity and indicating that caution must be taken when sourcing animals for reintroduction efforts. More generally, our study reveals insights into the utility of alternative estimation methods in guiding recovery efforts of threatened and endangered species.