Estimates Of Water Availability Research Articles

Will climate change affect the electricity production sector? A European study

Climate change and increasing electricity production affect future freshwater requirements for thermoelectric power plants in Europe. This paper explores the reasons and shows ‘hot spots’ for further analysis. A scenario and simulation approach was selected to estimate water availability and water uses in Europe up to 2050. Depending on the scenario, water withdrawals in thermal electricity production would increase by 64% or decrease by 92% between 2005 and 2050. At the same time, average summer water availability is expected to decrease because of climate change in southern and south-eastern parts of Europe. In these regions in particular, hot spots were identified where water is scarce and where growing water demand is likely to exacerbate water stress which may cause economic losses. Hot spots identified in the Economy First scenario indicate increasing competition for freshwater resources for the thermal electricity production sector. Increasing efficiency and improved awareness as assumed in the Sustainability Eventually scenario can reduce these hot spots by 90%.

Plant wilting can be caused either by the plant or by the soil

In this paper, plant wilting is re-analysed and re-interpreted on the basis of previously published work. Wilting is considered only in terms of the stress caused by the matric suction of the soil water. Other factors that can induce wilting, such as salinity and plant pathogens, are not considered. It is found that there is confusion around the subject for two main reasons. First, it is usually assumed that the matric suction of the pore water that exists in soil samples when they are removed from pressure plate extractors is equal to the air pressure that was applied. Second (and this is a special case of the first reason), because the soil water content when most plants wilt is very close to that remaining in soil samples on pressure plates operating with an air pressure of 1.5 MPa, it is assumed that plants wilt at a pore water suction of 1.5 MPa. These assumptions are examined here, and it is shown that neither of them is true. Published results are used for the wilting condition. The recently described double-exponential (DE) equation for soil water retention is used for cases where the water is non-equilibrated because of hydraulic cut-off. The non-equilibrated condition is appropriate for plant roots because they, like pressure plate extractors, extract water from soil by immiscible displacement. The DE equation is used to illustrate the conditions under which plant wilting can be either a plant or a soil property. It is shown how this approach can be used to estimate the pore water suction at which plants would wilt because the soil is no longer able to supply water to their roots. It is demonstrated that the commonly used, but often erroneous, value for the wilting-point suction of h = 1.5 MPa is a consequence of the fact that this is the largest value of air pressure used in pressure cell extractors. It is therefore neither a plant nor a soil property, but is an artefact of the experimental procedure. The use of the DE equation for soil water retention shows that we know only that h ≤1.5 MPa, and that h can be as small as 0.2 or 0.3 MPa. Implications for estimation of plant water availability in soils, for plant breeding, and for soil microbial activity are discussed.

Analyzing Water Poverty in Basins

Inadequate provision of water-related services in developing countries continues to undermine strategies for poverty alleviation. The root lies in the inability of policy makers to tackle resource development in a holistic and integrated manner. This requires a multi-faceted approach to combine physical estimates of water availability with the socio-economic drivers of poverty. It is with this in mind that the Water Poverty Index (WPI) was created. However, water resources are dynamic, and the linkages between water scarcity and poverty incorporate complex cause-effect relationships. Water poverty should thus be addressed in a more systemic way. This would allow a comprehensive understanding of the crosscutting nature of water issues and impacts. In this paper, a system approach has been adopted to develop a structured framework for a multi-dimensional evaluation of water poverty in basins. It is an attempt to assess the diverse, interacting components of catchment processes, societal pressures, and policy actions. An enhanced Water Poverty Index (eWPI) has been developed and is proposed in this study. To exemplify the utilisation of the index, and to test its applicability and validity, eWPI has been piloted in a Peruvian watershed as initial case study. Results highlight the likely utility of the tool to identify areas for improvement, and ultimately guide appropriate action towards better service delivery and sustainable management of water resources.

A robust methodology for conducting large-scale assessments of current and future water availability and use: A case study in Tasmania, Australia

Summary This paper describes a robust methodology for determining current surface and groundwater availability and use, as well as future changes due to climate and landuse changes. It is based on the methodology developed by CSIRO to deliver on four large-scale water availability assessments conducted in the Murray-Darling Basin, Northern Australia, south-west Western Australia, and Tasmania. It will focus on the application of the technique and results from Tasmania, providing a representative example of the approach used. The genesis of this work was the explicit desire by Australian State and Commonwealth governments to use the outputs of these water availability assessments for assisting the formation of state and federal government water policy. For example, the results of the work have already been utilised as a key technical input to decision making on funding for proposed irrigation projects in Tasmania. Outputs from the other three study areas have been used to assist in developing a water resources plan for the Murray-Darling Basin, to guide infrastructure development in northern Australia, and to plan for reductions in water availability due to climate change in south-west Western Australia. The methodology assesses current water availability through the application of rainfall–runoff and river models, and recharge and groundwater models. These were calibrated to streamflow records and groundwater levels, and parameterised using estimates of current surface and groundwater extractions and use. Having derived an estimate of current water availability, the impacts of future climate change on water availability were determined through deriving projected changes in rainfall and potential evaporation from 15 IPCC AR4 global climate models. The changes in rainfall were then dynamically downscaled using the CSIRO-CCAM model over the study area (50,000 km2). The future climate sequence was then derived by modifying the historical 84-year climate sequence based on these changes in rainfall and potential evaporation. This future climate sequence was then run through the rainfall–runoff, river, recharge and groundwater models to give an estimate of water availability under future climate. The impacts of landuse changes were derived by modifying the parameters and inputs/outputs of each of the models as appropriate. Results for Tasmania indicate that historical average surface water availability across the study area is 21,815 GL/year. Of this, 636 GL/year is currently extracted for use. Historical groundwater development in Tasmania has been largely unregulated and unmetered, however current extraction is estimated to be only 38 GL/year. In some intensive irrigation areas, the modelling has demonstrated that current and future groundwater extraction will reduce baseflow in connected streams. By 2030, rainfall is projected to decrease by an average of 3% over the study area. This decrease in rainfall and concurrent increase in potential evaporation leads to a decrease in runoff and, to a lesser extent recharge, leading to a reduction in surface water availability of 5% by 2030. Results from this study are being used by the Tasmanian and Australian governments to guide decisions on the development of a sustainable irrigated agriculture industry in Tasmania.

Future changes of freshwater needs in European power plants

PurposeThe aim of this study is to analyze future changes of freshwater needs in the electricity production sector and to identify hotspots where future cooling water needs may not be fulfilled.Design/methodology/approachTo address the goals of this study, a scenario and simulation approach was selected to estimate water availability and water uses in Europe up to 2050. Two SCENES scenarios were selected to cover a wide range of water‐related driving forces including future developments in population, GDP, electricity production, technological and structural changes, as well as climate change.FindingsDepending on the scenario, water withdrawals in the electricity production would increase by 68 percent or decrease by 33 percent between 2000 and 2050. At the same time, water availability at low flow (Q90) would decrease because of climate change in southern and south‐eastern parts of Europe as well as in Ireland and the UK. Especially in these regions hotspots were identified where water is scarce and where growing water demand promotes water stress that may cause economic losses.Originality/valueThis paper presents hotspots of the thermal electricity production sector in Europe. In these regions water shortages were expected to lead to water stress due to climate change accompanied by increasing water demand for cooling purposes and by competing water use sectors.

Comment on “An unconfined groundwater model of the Death Valley Regional Flow System and a comparison to its confined predecessor” by R.W.H. Carroll, G.M. Pohll and R.L. Hershey [Journal of Hydrology 373/3–4, pp. 316–328

Summary Carroll et al. (2009) state that the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Death Valley Regional Flow System (DVRFS) model, which is based on MODFLOW, is “conceptually inaccurate in that it models an unconfined aquifer as a confined system and does not simulate unconfined drawdown in transient pumping simulations.” Carroll et al. (2009) claim that “more realistic estimates of water availability” can be produced by a SURFACT-based model of the DVRFS that simulates unconfined groundwater flow and limits withdrawals from wells to avoid excessive drawdown. Differences in results from the original MODFLOW-based model and the SURFACT-based model stem primarily from application by Carroll et al. (2009) of head limits that can also be applied using the existing MODLOW model and not from any substantial difference in the accuracy with which the unconfined aquifer is represented in the two models. In a hypothetical 50-year predictive simulation presented by Carroll et al. (2009) , large differences between the models are shown when simulating pumping from the lower clastic confining unit, where the transmissivity is nearly two orders of magnitude less than in an alluvial aquifer. Yet even for this extreme example, drawdowns and pumping rates from the MODFLOW and SURFACT models are similar when the head-limit capabilities of the MODFLOW MNW Package are applied. These similarities persist despite possible discrepancies between assigned hydraulic properties. The resulting comparison between the MODFLOW and SURFACT models of the DVRFS suggests that approximating the unconfined system in the DVRFS as a constant-saturated-thickness system (called a “confined system” by Carroll et al., 2009 ) performs very well.

SISTEMA INTEGRADO PARA A GESTÃO DE RECURSOS HÍDRICOS: ESTUDO DE CASO PARA A BACIA DO RIBEIRÃO ENTRE RIBEIROS

O valor da vazão passível de ser outorgada é influenciado pelo método utilizado para a sua obtenção, sendo que diversas metodologias encontram-se disponíveis para essa finalidade. O Sistema Integrado para a Gestão de Recursos Hídricos (SINGERH) permite obter a disponibilidade hídrica, para qualquer seção de interesse ao longo da rede hidrográfica de uma bacia, e quantificar o impacto da concessão de uma nova outorga nessa disponibilidade, tendo sido utilizado, neste trabalho, para verificar o impacto dos critérios de outorga e dos métodos de regionalização de vazões na estimativa da disponibilidade hídrica da bacia do ribeirão Entre Ribeiros. Inicialmente, foi preparada a base de dados necessária para a aplicação do SINGERH, sendo ela composta do modelo digital de elevação, das vazões mínimas e média, das equações de regionalização de vazões ,dos métodos tradicional e baseado na conservação de massas, e do cadastro de usuários de água da bacia. Os resultados obtidos indicaram a impossibilidade de concessão de novas outorgas até o final do período em análise. As simulações realizadas, além de terem permitido uma avaliação da forma como a variabilidade da disponibilidade hídrica influencia no processo de concessão de outorga, forneceu subsídios para a análise de diferentes critérios adotados para a distribuição de vazões a serem outorgadas.

Improved Method to Calculate a Water Poverty Index at Local Scale

The Water Poverty Index (WPI) was created as an interdisciplinary indicator to assess water stress and scarcity, linking physical estimates of water availability with the socioeconomic drivers of poverty. This index has found great relevance in policy making as an effective water management tool, particularly in resources allocation and prioritization processes. Two conceptual weaknesses exist in the current index: (1) inadequate technique to combine available data and (2) poor statistical properties of the resulting composite. The purpose of this paper is to propose a suitable methodology to assess water poverty that overcomes these weaknesses. To this end, a number of combinations to create the WPI have been considered, based on indicators selection criteria, simple aggregation functions and multivariate analysis. The approach adopted has been designed for universal application at local scale. To exemplify the utilization of each alternative method, they have been piloted and implemented in the Turkana District (Kenya) as a case study. The paper concludes that the weighted multiplicative function is the most appropriate aggregation method for estimation of water poverty. It is least eclipsing and ambiguous free function, and it does not allow compensability among different variables of the index.

Livestock Water Use and Productivity in the Nile Basin

Livestock are the major consumers of water but also sustain millions of pastoralist and farming families. In regions where water is a scarce commodity, such as the Nile basin, there is a need for strategies to improve livestock water productivity (LWP). This study seeks to contribute to this need through a better understanding of livestock water use and productivity within the Nile basin and how this varies across the basin. We developed a spatial framework combining dynamic models of digestion in ruminants, crop water requirements (CWRs), and animal drinking water requirements to estimate spatial distribution of livestock water requirements in different livestock production systems (LPSs). We compared this with livestock production and water availability estimates within the basin. The results show that in most areas LWP is less than 0.1 USD/m3, with only few areas showing a LWP of 0.5 USD/m3 and higher. This is largely related to very low livestock meat and milk production on one hand and very variable, but, in general, low feed water productivity (fWP). Total water need for feed production was estimated to be roughly 94 billion m3, which amounts to approximately 5% of the total annual rainfall (68 billion m3 or 3.6% of total annual rainfall when excluding water for residues). Differences in LWP between systems and regions are large, suggesting considerable scope for improvements. We discuss the main factors influencing observed patterns of LWP and livestock water use and how this information can be used for developing strategies for increasing the water productivity of agricultural systems at the basin level.

Estimation of water retention and availability in soils of Rio Grande do Sul

Dispersed information on water retention and availability in soils may be compiled in databases to generate pedotransfer functions. The objectives of this study were: to generate pedotransfer functions to estimate soil water retention based on easily measurable soil properties; to evaluate the efficiency of existing pedotransfer functions for different geographical regions for the estimation of water retention in soils of Rio Grande do Sul (RS); and to estimate plant-available water capacity based on soil particle-size distribution. Two databases were set up for soil properties, including water retention: one based on literature data (725 entries) and the other with soil data from an irrigation scheduling and management system (239 entries). From the literature database, pedotransfer functions were generated, nine pedofunctions available in the literature were evaluated and the plant-available water capacity was calculated. The coefficient of determination of some pedotransfer functions ranged from 0.56 to 0.66. Pedotransfer functions generated based on soils from other regions were not appropriate for estimating the water retention for RS soils. The plant-available water content varied with soil texture classes, from 0.089 kg kg-1 for the sand class to 0.191 kg kg-1 for the silty clay class. These variations were more related to sand and silt than to clay content. The soils with a greater silt/clay ratio, which were less weathered and with a greater quantity of smectite clay minerals, had high water retention and plant-available water capacity.

An unconfined groundwater model of the Death Valley Regional Flow System and a comparison to its confined predecessor

Summary The MODFLOW version of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Death Valley Regional Flow System (DVRFS) in California and Nevada is conceptually inaccurate in that it models an unconfined aquifer as a confined system and does not accurately simulate unconfined drawdown in transient pumping simulations. The transfer of geologic and hydrologic information from the confined MODFLOW DVRFS model to an unconfined MODFLOW–SURFACT (SURFACT) version was accomplished by maintaining cell structure between models and computing effective cell properties to translate the HUF2 package used in MODFLOW to the BCF4 package used by SURFACT. The confined version of the DVRFS was compared to the unconfined SURFACT version by examining head contour maps and the ability of the SURFACT model to match the 4900 observations of hydraulic head/drawdown, 49 observations of groundwater discharge, and 15 estimates of groundwater fluxes into/out of the model domain. Resultant weighted root mean squared error (ωRMSE) for the unconfined SURFACT model was lower than the USGS confined model. Despite a lower ωRMSE, unconfined conditions simulated with SURFACT did produce greater heads in mountainous regions compared to the confined MODFLOW with differences most pronounced in regions where cell thickness is large, horizontal conductivity small and recharge large. Difference in computed heads reflects computation schemes employed by both models to estimate interblock conductance. Specifically, interblock conductance for the unconfined SURFACT model is dependent on the relative saturation of a modeled cell while MODFLOW’s confined system is not. Despite head differences, SURFACT simulates comparable flux estimates to MODFLOW (e.g. observed ET, groundwater spring flow, and groundwater flux across model boundaries), while significantly improving transient well drawdown estimates. SURFACT is also capable of producing more realistic estimates of water availability from proposed groundwater development and resultant potential impacts to the region.

An ecosystem model‐based estimate of changes in water availability differs from water proxies that are commonly used in species distribution models

ABSTRACTAim To assess whether the water availability measures commonly used in species distribution models might be misleading because they do not account for the hydrological effects of changes in vegetation structure and functioning.Location Europe.Methods We compared different methods for estimating water availability in species distribution models with the soil water content predicted by a process‐based ecosystem model. The latter also accounted for the hydrological effects of dynamic changes in vegetation structure and functioning, including potential physiological effects of increasing CO2.Results All proxies showed similar patterns of water availability across Europe for current climate, but when projected into the future, the changes in the simpler water availability measures showed no correlation with those projected by the more complex ecosystem model, even if CO2 effects were switched off.Main conclusions Results from species distribution modelling studies concerning future changes in species ranges and biodiversity should be interpreted with caution, and more process‐based representations of the water balance of terrestrial ecosystems should be considered within these models.

Water use efficiency of twenty-five co-existing Patagonian species growing under different soil water availability

The variation of plant water use efficiency (WUE) with water availability has two interacting components: a plastic response, evident when individuals of the same genotype are compared (e.g. wet versus dry years), and an interspecific response, evident when different species living in habitats with different water availability are compared. We analysed the WUE of 25 Patagonian species that belong to four life forms (grasses, shrubs, annual herbs and perennial herbs) in relation to the climatic conditions of 2 years and the mean historic water availability experienced by each species. To estimate water availability, we calculated the effective soil water potential (EWP) of each species, based on available information about soil water dynamics, phenology and root system structure. To estimate WUE, we used isotopic discrimination of leaf C (Delta(13)C) and mean annual water vapour difference between leaves and atmosphere (Deltae) measured in situ. For the plastic response, for every species and life form, WUE increased from the dry to the wet year. We hypothesize that photosynthesis was less nutrient limited in the wet than in the dry year, facilitating higher net photosynthesis rates per unit of stomatal conductance in the wet year. For the interspecific response, WUE was lower in species native to drier habitats than in species native to wetter habitats. This response was mostly accounted for by a decrease in Deltae with EWP. Annual herbs, which avoid drought in time (they have the earliest growth cycle), and shrubs, which avoid drought in space (they have the deepest roots), showed the highest EWP and WUE. We conclude that the conventional wisdom which states that the highest WUE occurs within a species during the driest years, and among species in the driest habitats, does not always hold true, and that co-existing life forms drastically differ in water availability and water economy.

A water balance model for rainfed lowland rice fields emphasising lateral water movement within a toposequence

In the Mekong region, most rice paddies lie in gently sloping lowlands. An accurate estimate of paddy water availability is crucial for modelling rice ( Oryza sativa L.) productivity in such environments. However, modelling of water balance in the sloping lowlands can be difficult due to problems in estimating lateral water movement from high to low positions in the toposequence. This paper describes a semi-empirical model for estimating net lateral water flow along a toposequence of rice fields. Net lateral water flow is separated into three sub-components: (i) lateral seepage through the bunds from field to field; (ii) surface runoff over the bunds from field to field; (iii) water run-on from the catchment above the toposequence. The lateral seepage is estimated using the Dupuit equation for steady unconfined flow. Surface runoff over the bund is calculated as excess water depth above the bund height, while run-on from the catchment is calculated using a rainfall–runoff relationship. The other water balance components used in the model are rainfall (measured), paddy evapotranspiration (ET), and downward water flow (within the field and under the bund). Paddy ET is estimated using the FAO crop ET model. The downward water flow is empirically determined for soil texture groups. Simulation results showed that field water levels computed by the model varied between the bund height (maximum) and the hardpan level (minimum). The daily change in the water level was satisfactorily validated using data collected from a field experiment in a toposequence in Cambodia. The component governing the water balance in the higher toposequence positions was the downward water flow (45% of seasonal rainfall at the top of the toposequence). However, the water balance in the lower positions was affected largely by the net lateral water flow (21% of seasonal rainfall at the bottom of the toposequence). Seasonal ET was 67–69% of seasonal rainfall.

Effects of Soil Clay Content on Water Balance and Productivity in Rainfed Lowland Rice Ecosystem in Northeast Thailand

Water availability is one of the determinants of productivity of rainfed lowland rice (Oryza sativa L.). Quantifying water losses from a paddy field, such as deep percolation and lateral seepage, assists estimation of water availability to the rice crop and development of appropriate water management in the lowlands. The main objective of this study was to evaluate paddy water availability and productivity across various soils in Northeast Thailand. The daily rate of downward water flow from standing water in the field (D) varied between 0 and 3 mm day-1 from clayey to sandy soils when the standing water was connected to groundwater table. However, when the standing water was separated from groundwater table, D increased up to 5 mm day-1 on soils with very low clay content in the topsoil. Daily net lateral water flow from the field (L) averaged over the season varied between 5 and 24 mm day-1 for the outflow and between 3 and 16 mm day-1 for the inflow. Both the inflow and outflow tended to be associated negatively with the soil clay content. The seasonal water loss through D plus L during the growing season in the lowlands was also negatively related to the soil clay content. The yield of a major rainfed lowland rice cultivar in Northeast Thailand (KDML105) varied from 2 to 4 t ha-1 across the region, and the water productivity (the ratio of grain yield to cumulative rainfall from transplanting/seedling establishment to maturity) ranged from 3 to 9 kg ha-1 mm-1. High clay soils could provide good standing water until late in the growing season, so the high production efficiency was measured on such soils.

Regional flow duration curve for a Himalayan river Chenab

This study is carried out with the objective of examining the effect of altitude on water availability estimates for the various sub-basins of the Chenab river basin (mean elevation of the basin is 3600 m), which is a snow-fed Himalayan river basin located in the western Himalayas. This basin covers all three Himalayan ranges, i.e. outer, middle and greater Himalayas. For this study, the daily flow data of 11 gauging sites varying from 14 years to 23 years in the Chenab river basin are utilised. The other important information related to the physiography, hydrology and meteorology, etc, for the region are derived from the available literature and maps. The daily flow data of nine gauging sites are utilised for developing the regional relationships for water availability computations. These relationships are tested over the remaining two gauging sites. The regional relationships are developed using three different approaches. These approaches include: (i) parameter regionalisation for individual gauged sites of selected probability distribution, (ii) regionalisation of dependable flows and (iii) parameter regionalisation for the region as a whole of the selected probability distribution. The different methods are compared and discussed in detail. It is observed that the flow for a given dependability increases with catchment area and decreases with altitude. The flows of the catchments at higher altitudes exhibit larger variability in comparison to the catchments at lower altitudes. The regional relationships are recommended for the use of field engineers.

Estimating Percolation and Lateral Water Flow on Sloping Land in Rainfed Lowland Rice Ecosystem

Quantifying water losses in paddy fields assists estimation of water availability in rainfed lowland rice ecosystem. Little information is available on water balance in different toposequence positions of sloped rainfed lowland. Therefore, the aim of this work was to quantify percolation and the lateral water flow with special reference to the toposequential variation. Data used for the analysis was collected in Laos and northeast Thailand. Percolation and water tables were measured on a daily basis using a steel cylindrical tube with a lid and perforated PVC tubes, respectively. Percolation rate was determined using linear regression analysis of cumulative percolation. Assuming that the total amount of evaporation and transpiration was equivalent to potential evapotranspiration, the lateral water flow was estimated using the water balance equation. Separate perched water and groundwater tables were observed in paddy fields on coarse-textured soils. The percolation rate varied between 0 and 3 mm/day across locations, and the maximum water loss by lateral movement was more than 20 mm/day. Our results are in agreement with the previously reported findings, and the methodology of estimating water balance components appears reasonably acceptable. With regard to the toposequential variation, the higher the position in the topoesquence, the greater potential for water loss because of higher percolation and lateral flow rates.

TREE‐RING BASED RECONSTRUCTIONS OF INTERANNUAL TO DECADAL SCALE PRECIPITATION VARIABILITY FOR NORTHEASTERN UTAH SINCE 1226 A.D.1

ABSTRACT: Samples from 107 piñon pines (Pinns edulis) at four sites were used to develop a proxy record of annual (June to June) precipitation spanning the 1226 to 2001 AD interval for the Uinta Basin Watershed of northeastern Utah. The reconstruction reveals significant precipitation variability at interannual to decadal scales. Single‐year dry events before the instrumental period tended to be more severe than those after 1900. In general, decadal scale dry events were longer and more severe prior to 1900. In particular, dry events in the late 13th, 16th, and 18th Centuries surpass the magnitude and duration of droughts seen in the Uinta Basin after 1900. The last four decades of the 20th Century also represent one of the wettest periods in the reconstruction. The proxy record indicates that the instrumental record (approximately 1900 to the Present) underestimates the potential frequency and severity of severe, sustained droughts in this area, while over representing the prominence of wet episodes. In the longer record, the empirical probability of any decadal scale drought exceeding the duration of the 1954 through 1964 drought is 94 percent, while the probability for any wet event exceeding the duration of the 1965 through 1999 wet spell is only 1 percent. Hence, estimates of future water availability in the Uinta Basin and forecasts for exports to the Colorado River, based on the 1961 to 1990 and 1971 to 2000 “normal” periods, may be overly optimistic.

Differential seed mortality among habitats limits the distribution of the invasive non-native shrub Ardisia elliptica

During the early phases of biological invasions, both limited dispersal and habitat preference may contribute to observed patterns of distribution for non-native species. In a disturbed area of Everglades National Park, the non-native Ardisia elliptica (Myrsinaceae) does not occur in all habitat types nor is it evenly distributed among habitats where it does occur. One goal of this study was to determine whether the patchy distribution of A. elliptica may be due to differential effects of habitat on seed fates and germination. Screen mesh bags containing seeds of A. elliptica were buried in the surface litter of five habitats and were later sampled periodically over a three month period to measure seed germination, survival and death. Seed mortality and mean germination speed was higher in open exposed habitats relative to closed canopied forests. During the study period, which coincided with the dry season, there was no germination of seeds that had been placed in pine forests or in Schinus thickets that were highly disturbed pine forests. Because hydroperiod is a critical determinant of habitat type in the Everglades ecosystem, a second goal of this study was to determine whether water availability was correlated with seed germination and seedling survival in five sites where A. elliptica has invaded. Seeds were sown under mesh boxes and monitored for germination and seedling survival for ten months. Estimates of water availability taken as predawn water potentials on A. elliptica were positively correlated with percent seed germination but not with percent seedling survival. Additionally, pre-dawn water potential of A. elliptica differed among sites. This study suggests that differential water availability among habitats may have influenced the patchy distribution of A. elliptica in Everglades National Park. Lack of sufficient moisture availability for seeds in exposed habitats such as pine forests and wetland prairies during the dry season has contributed to its distribution. Because some of the habitats where A. elliptica currently occurs were pine forests and wetland prairies prior to disturbance, this study suggests that substrate disturbance and canopy formation have altered the soil microenvironment, favoring the establishment of A. elliptica.

Water accounting for conjunctive groundwater/surface water management: case of the Singkarak–Ombilin River basin, Indonesia

Because water shortages limit development in many parts of the world, a systematic approach is needed to use water more productively. To address this need, Molden and Sakthivadivel [Water Resour. Dev. 15 (1999) 55-71] developed a water-accounting procedure for analyzing water use patterns and tradeoffs between users. Their procedure treats groundwater and surface water as a single domain. We adapted this procedure to account for groundwater and surface water components separately, and applied the adapted procedure to the Singkarak–Ombilin River basin, Indonesia, where groundwater is a significant part of the overall water balance. Since 1998, a substantial proportion of water has been withdrawn from Singkarak Lake and diverted out of the basin, resulting in significant impacts on downstream water users and the lake ecosystem. Based on 15–20 years (1980–1999) of hydrometeorological, land use, soil, and other relevant data, a simple groundwater balance model was developed to generate the hydrogeologic information needed for the water-accounting procedure. The water-accounting procedure was then used to evaluate present and potential future water use performance in the basin. By considering groundwater and surface water components separately, a more realistic estimate of water availability was calculated than could be obtained by lumping these components together. Results show that the diversion of 37 m 3/s from Singkarak Lake increases the amount of water that is not available for other uses, such as for irrigation, from 57–81 to 81–95% of total water available in the basin. The new water accounting procedure also demonstrates the viability of increasing downstream water supply and water use performance during the dry months (June–September). For example, by increasing irrigation during the wet months (January–April) or tapping water from a shallow, unconfined aquifer during the dry months, while keep maintaining sustainable groundwater levels.