Estimates Of Population Growth Rate Research Articles

Early Life History Divergence Mediates Elevational Adaptation in a Perennial Alpine Plant

ABSTRACTSpatially divergent natural selection can drive adaptation to contrasting environments and thus the evolution of ecotypes. In perennial plants, selection shapes life history traits by acting on subsequent life stages, each contributing to fitness. While evidence of adaptation in perennial plants is common, the expression of life history traits is rarely characterized, limiting our understanding of their role in adaptive evolution. We conducted a multi‐year reciprocal transplant experiment with seedlings from low and high elevation populations of the alpine carnation Dianthus carthusianorum to test for adaptation linked to contrasting climates and inferred specific contributions of early life stages to fitness. We assessed genotype by environment interactions in single fitness components, applied matrix population models to achieve an integrated estimate of fitness through population growth rates, and performed trade‐off analyses to investigate the advantage of alternate life history traits across environments. We found evidence of genotype by environment interactions consistent with elevational adaptation at multiple stages of the early life cycle. Estimates of population growth rates corroborated a strong advantage of the local genotype. Early reproduction and survival are alternate major contributors to adaptation at low and high elevation, respectively, and are linked by trade‐offs that underlie the evolution of divergent life history traits across environments. While these traits have a strong genetic basis, foreign populations express co‐gradient plasticity, reflecting the adaptive strategy of the local populations. Our study reveals that selection associated to climate has driven the evolution of divergent life histories and the formation of elevational ecotypes. While the high energy environment and strong competition favor investment in early reproduction at low elevation, limiting resources favor a more conservative strategy relying on self‐maintenance at high elevation. The co‐gradient plasticity expressed by high‐elevation populations may facilitate their persistence under warming climatic conditions.

Living on the edge: identifying demographic bottlenecks in an isolated sage‐grouse population

The greater sage‐grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus: hereafter sage‐grouse) population in Modoc County California is geographically isolated and contains a single lek (from 56 leks in the 1940s), despite significant efforts to increase the population through translocations and habitat improvement. Repeated wildfire within the landscape has led to an increase in invasive annual grasses and a decrease in sagebrush (Artemisia sp.) cover in important nesting and brood‐rearing habitat. We estimated survival for adult females, nests, and chicks and assessed biotic characteristics that may influence these survival estimates to identify factors that may be limiting population growth. We monitored 37 female sage‐grouse marked with GPS PTTS, 39 nests, and 8 broods for 3 years (2019–2021). We measured vegetation characteristics for nests at the microsite and landscape scale to evaluate effects on daily nest survival (DNS). We used survival rates from all life stages to parameterize matrix models and estimate population growth rate. Mean nest success over 3 years was 29% (95% CI: 17.1–44.8) across a 29‐day incubation period and DNS declined as the proportion of both medusahead Taeniatherum caput‐medusae and Japanese brome Bromus japonicus around the nest increased. Across all three years, mean chick survival across a 54‐day period was 44% (95% CI: 0.9–72.3) and mean annual survival for adult females was 29% (95% CI: 17.8–43.7). Our estimated vital rates were 45–55% lower than distribution‐wide estimates and the projected population growth rate was strongly declining (0.411, 95% CI: 0.30–0.52). Our results suggested recent cover changes associated with wildfire on the study area may have had a detrimental effect on this population across all life stages, and if attention is not given to preventing the transition from sagebrush communities into invasive grasslands, this population and others in degraded landscapes may not persist.

Importance of accounting for imperfect detection of plants in the estimation of population growth rates

Detection of plant individuals is imperfect. Not accounting for this issue can result in biased estimates of demographic parameters as important as population growth rates. In mobile organisms, a common practice is to explicitly account for detection probability during the estimation of most demographic parameters, but no study in plant populations has examined the consequences of ignoring imperfect detectability on the estimation of population growth rates. The lack of accounting for detection probability occurs because plant demographers have frequently assumed that detection is perfect, and because there is a scarcity of studies that formally compare the performance of estimation methods that incorporate detection probabilities with respect to methods that ignore detectabilities. Based on field data of five plant species and data simulations, we compared the performance of three methods that estimate population growth rates, two that do not estimate detection probabilities (direct counts of individuals and the minimum‐number‐alive method) and the other that explicitly accounts for detection probabilities (temporal symmetry models). Our aims were 1) to estimate detection probabilities, and 2) to evaluate the performance of these three methods by calculating bias, accuracy, and precision in their estimates of population growth rates. Our five plant species had imperfect detection. Estimates of population growth rates that explicitly incorporate detectabilities had better performance (less biased estimates, with higher accuracy and precision) than those obtained with the two methods that do not calculate detection probabilities. In these latter methods, bias increases as detection probability decreases. Our findings highlight the importance of using robust analytical methods that account for detection probability of plants during the estimation of critical demographic parameters such as population growth rates. In this way, estimates of plant population parameters will reliably indicate their actual status and quantitative trends.

Use of capture–recapture models to evaluate abundance and dynamics of a stocked Muskellunge population

AbstractTo evaluate the success of a stocking program in Fox Lake, Minnesota, adult (≥76 cm total length) Muskellunge were captured with large nearshore trap nets and individually marked with passive integrated transponder tags during the 2011–2013 and 2015–2017 spawning seasons; then, capture–recapture data were analyzed at two different time scales. Despite substantial sampling effort, daily capture histories within a single season only supported closed‐population abundance estimates for both sexes in half the years; estimates were imprecise, and there was evidence of trap shyness or violation of the short‐term closure assumption in some years. Jolly–Seber models over all years supported relatively precise abundance estimates for both sexes every year, as well as estimates of annual survival, recruitment, and population growth rate. Link–Barker Jolly–Seber models provided estimates of population growth rate λ ≈ 1 indicating that per‐capita annual recruitment rates of only about 0.15–0.20 were adequate to maintain the adult population given the high annual apparent survival rates of 0.80 for adult females and 0.89 for adult males. POPAN Jolly–Seber models revealed that about 80 adult females and 90–126 adult males were vulnerable to capture each year in the 385 ha lake, and about 16–18 fish of each sex recruited to the adult population annually. This study illustrates the importance of open‐population models with multiple years of data to evaluate the abundance and population dynamics of a low‐density, long‐lived species.

Identifying Pareto‐efficient eradication strategies for invasive populations

AbstractInvasive species are a major cause of biodiversity loss and are notoriously expensive and challenging to manage. We developed a decision‐analytic framework for evaluating invasive species removal strategies, given objectives of maximizing eradication probability and minimizing costs. The framework uses an existing estimation model for spatially referenced removal data—one of the most accessible types of invasive species data—to obtain estimates of population growth rate, movement probability, and detection probability. We use these estimates in simulations to identify Pareto‐efficient strategies—strategies where increases in eradication probability cannot be obtained without increases in cost—from a set of proposed strategies. We applied the framework post hoc to a successful eradication of veiled chameleons (Chamaeleo calyptratus) and identified the potential for substantial improvements in efficiency. Our approach provides managers and policymakers with tools to identify cost‐effective strategies for a range of invasive species using only prior knowledge or data from initial physical removals.

Grazing preferences of three species of amoebae on cyanobacteria and green algae.

Twenty species/isolates of cyanobacteria and green algae were isolated from cyanobacterial bloom samples in lakes associated with the upper Qu'Appelle River drainage system in southern Saskatchewan, Canada. Three amoebae species (Cochliopodium sp., Vannella sp. and Vermamoeba vermiformis) were also isolated from one of these samples, and were subjected to grazing assays to determine which species of cyanobacteria or algae could potentially serve as a food source. Amoeba grazing rates were quantified based on the diameter of the plaque after 12 days on agar plate assays, and by estimation of the amoeba population growth rate from the rate of increase of plaque area. The common cyanobacterial bloom-formers Dolichospermum sp. and Aphanizomenon flos-aquae supported high growth rates for all three amoebae, while green algae, with the exception of one green alga/amoeba combination, did not support growth of the tested amoebae. Many of the cyanobacterial and algal isolates that did not support amoebae growth were ingested, suggesting that ingestion did not determine grazing success. Overall, while the cyanobacteria Dolichospermum sp. and Aphanizomenon flos-aquae were suitable food sources for the amoebae, the other cyanobacteria were grazed in an unpredictable manner, with some species/strains grazed by some amoebae and some species not grazed at all.

Uncertainty propagation in matrix population models: Gaps, importance and guidelines

Abstract Matrix population models (MPMs), which describe the demographic behaviour of a population based on age or stage through discrete time, are popular in ecology, evolutionary biology and conservation biology. MPMs provide a tool for guiding management decisions and can give insight into life history trade‐offs, patterns of senescence, transient dynamics and population trajectories. These models are parameterised with estimates of demographic rates (e.g. survival and reproduction) and can have multiple layers of underlying statistical analyses, all of which introduce uncertainty. For accurate and transparent results, this uncertainty should be propagated through to quantities derived from the MPMs, such as population growth rates (λ). However, full propagation is not always achieved, leading to omitted uncertainty and negative consequences for the reliability of inferences drawn. We summarised the contemporary standards regarding demographic rate uncertainty reporting and propagation, by reviewing papers using MPMs from 2010 to 2019. We then used reported uncertainties as the basis for a simulation study to explore the impact of uncertainty omission on inferences drawn from the analysis of MPMs. We simulated four scenarios of demographic rate propagation and evaluated their impact on population growth rate estimates. Although around 78% of MPM papers report some kind of uncertainty in their findings, only half of those report uncertainty in all aspects. Additionally, only 31% of papers fully propagate uncertainty through to derived quantities. Our simulations demonstrate that, even with moderate levels of uncertainty, incomplete propagation introduces bias. Omitting uncertainty may substantially alter conclusions, particularly for results showing small changes in population size. Biased conclusions were most common when uncertainty in the most influential demographic rates for population growth were omitted. We suggest comprehensive guidelines for reporting and propagating uncertainty in MPMs. Standardising methods and reporting will increase the reliability of MPMs and enhance the comparability of different models. These guidelines will improve the accuracy, transparency and reliability of population projections, increasing our confidence in results that can inform conservation efforts, ultimately contributing to biodiversity preservation.

Evaluating the importance of individual heterogeneity in reproduction to Weddell seal population dynamics using integral projection models.

Identifying and accounting for unobserved individual heterogeneity in vital rates in demographic models is important for estimating population-level vital rates and identifying diverse life-history strategies, but much less is known about how this individual heterogeneity influences population dynamics. We aimed to understand how the distribution of individual heterogeneity in reproductive and survival rates influenced population dynamics using vital rates from a Weddell seal population by altering the distribution of individual heterogeneity in reproduction, which also altered the distribution of individual survival rates through the incorporation of our estimate of the correlation between the two rates and assessing resulting changes in population growth. We constructed an integral projection model (IPM) structured by age and reproductive state using estimates of vital rates for a long-lived mammal that has recently been shown to exhibit large individual heterogeneity in reproduction. Using output from the IPM, we evaluated how population dynamics changed with different underlying distributions of unobserved individual heterogeneity in reproduction. Results indicate that the changes to the underlying distribution of individual heterogeneity in reproduction cause very small changes in the population growth rate and other population metrics. The largest difference in the estimated population growth rate resulting from changes to the underlying distribution of individual heterogeneity was less than 1%. Our work highlights the differing importance of individual heterogeneity at the population level compared to the individual level. Although individual heterogeneity in reproduction may result in large differences in the lifetime fitness of individuals, changing the proportion of above- or below-average breeders in the population results in much smaller differences in annual population growth rate. For a long-lived mammal with stable and high adult-survival that gives birth to a single offspring, individual heterogeneity in reproduction has a limited effect on population dynamics. We posit that the limited effect of individual heterogeneity on population dynamics may be due to canalization of life-history traits.

Leveraging projection models to evaluate long‐term dynamics of scrub mint translocations

AbstractTranslocated populations often show vigorous initial dynamics but eventually collapse. Modeling tools that incorporate basic ecological knowledge and allow for propagation of uncertainty can help identify potential risks. Here, we use Bayesian Integral Projection Models to estimate population growth rates (λs), associated elasticities, and extinction risks for the endangered Dicerandra christmanii. Our study compared natural populations in gaps (open areas) within the shrub matrix and roadsides, unoccupied gaps augmented with transplants, and introduced populations. These populations experienced different management, including prescribed fires, and had different initial conditions. Augmented gaps showed lower means but similar variation in λs as natural gaps. Yet, simulations indicate that augmentations can delay quasi‐extinction (40% of simulations) by 4 years at the population level. Introduced populations showed higher means and variation in λs as wild gaps. While vital rate estimates suggested initial translocation success, time to quasi‐extinction was projected to be 7 years shorter for introductions in gaps than for natural gap populations. These contradictory results are partially explained by the lack of established seed banks in introduced populations, which affected the response of early life stage transitions to a prescribed fire. This study highlights the need to account for site‐specific information in models of population dynamics, including initial conditions and management history, and especially cryptic life stages such as dormant seeds.

Abundance and demographic parameters of humpback whales from the Gulf of Maine, and stock definition relative to the Scotian Shelf

The Gulf of Maine is one of the principal summer feeding grounds for humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in the North Atlantic, and was one focus of effort in an ocean-basin-wide study known as the Years of the North Atlantic Humpback (YoNAH) project. Data from that project and from subsequent surveys were used to assess stock boundaries, abundance and demographic parameters for Gulf of Maine humpbacks. Surveys on the Scotian Shelf in the summers of 1998 and 1999 produced the first substantial dataset of identified individual humpbacks observed in this region, which lies between the well-studied areas of the Gulf of Maine and Newfoundland. The results gave a match rate of approximately 27% (14 of 52 individuals) between the Scotian Shelf and the Gulf of Maine, with evidence that many of the matched whales were transient in the Gulf of Maine; there were no matches to any other location in the North Atlantic. These data suggest that the range of most whales from the Gulf of Maine usually does not extend as far east as the Scotian Shelf or Newfoundland. Only one whale was observed on the Scotian Shelf in both the 1998 and 1999 surveys, and another seen in 1998 had also been sighted there in 1994. This low inter-annual match rate suggests that the abundance of humpback whales on the Scotian Shelf is larger than previously recognised. Three different but overlapping estimates of abundance for the Gulf of Maine population were calculated. Mark-recapture data from 1992/93 gave an estimate of abundance of 652 (CV = 0.29); however, this estimate is likely biased because of heterogeneity in sampling and in animal distribution. Photo-id data also provided a minimum population estimate of 497 humpbacks known to be alive in 1997; this estimate is also likely to be negatively biased because of heterogeneity. Finally, line-transect surveys conducted in 1999 yielded estimates of 816 (CV = 0.45) or 902 humpback whales (CV = 0.41, including a portion of the eastern Scotian Shelf stratum); these transect-based estimates are more consistent with the number of humpbacks (1,273, including dead animals) in the current photo-id catalogue for the Gulf of Maine. Overall, the size of the Gulf of Maine population is likely to be in the high hundreds, but no more precise estimate can be calculated at this time. The growth rate for the Gulf of Maine population was estimated using an interbirth interval method using data from 1992-2000. The estimate was either 1.00 (for a calf survival rate of 0.51) or 1.04 (for a calf survival rate of 0.875). Although confidence limits are not available (because maturation parameters could not be estimated), both estimates of population growth rate are outside the 95% confidence intervals of the previous estimate of 1.065 for the period 1979-1991 (Barlow and Clapham, 1997). It is unclear whether this apparent decline is an artefact resulting from a shift in distribution or is a real phenomenon; if the latter, it may be related to known high mortality among young-of-the-year whales in the waters of the US mid-Atlantic states. However, calf survival appears to have increased since 1996, presumably accompanied by an increase in population growth.

Population dynamics and harvest management of eastern mallards

AbstractManaging sustainable harvest of wildlife populations requires regular collection of demographic data and robust estimates of demographic parameters. Estimates can then be used to develop a harvest strategy to guide decision‐making. Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) are an important species in the Atlantic Flyway for many users and they exhibited exponential growth in the eastern United States between the 1970s and 1990s. Since then, estimates of mallard abundance have declined 16%, prompting the Atlantic Flyway Council and United States Fish and Wildlife Service to implement more restrictive hunting regulations and develop a new harvest strategy predicated on an updated population model. Our primary objective was to develop an integrated population model (IPM) for use in an eastern mallard harvest management strategy. We developed an IPM using annual estimates of breeding abundance, 2‐season banding and recovery data, and hunter‐harvest data from 1998 to 2018. When developing the model, we used novel model selection methods to test various forms of a sub‐model for survival including estimating the degree of harvest additivity and any age‐specific trends. The top survival sub‐model included a negative annual trend on juvenile survival. The IPM posterior estimates for population abundance tracked closely with the observed estimates and estimates of mean annual population growth rate ranged from 0.88 to 1.08. Our population model provided increased precision in abundance estimates compared to survey methods for use in an updated harvest strategy. The IPM posterior estimates of survival rates were relatively stable for adult cohorts, and annual growth rate was positively correlated with the female age ratio, a measure of reproduction. Either or both of those demographic parameters, juvenile survival or reproduction, could be a target for management efforts to address the population decline. The resulting demographic parameters provided information on the equilibrium population size and can be used in an adaptive harvest strategy for mallards in eastern North America.

Habitat fragmentation reduces survival and drives source-sink dynamics for a large carnivore.

Rigorous understanding of how environmental conditions impact population dynamics is essential for species conservation, especially in mixed-use landscapes where source-sink dynamics may be at play. Conservation of large carnivore populations in fragmented, human-dominated landscapes is critical for their long-term persistence. However, living in human-dominated landscapes comes with myriad costs, including direct anthropogenic mortality and sublethal energetic costs. How these costs impact individual fitness and population dynamics are not fully understood, partly due to the difficulty in collecting long-term demographic data for these species. Here, we analyzed an 11-year dataset on puma (Puma concolor) space use, mortality, and reproduction in the Santa Cruz Mountains, California, USA, to quantify how living in a fragmented landscape impacts individual survival and population dynamics. Long-term exposure to housing density drove mortality risk for female pumas, resulting in an 18-percentage-point reduction in annual survival for females in exurban versus remote areas. While the overall population growth rate appeared stable, reduced female survival in more developed areas resulted in source-sink dynamics across the study area, with 42.1% of the Santa Cruz Mountains exhibiting estimated population growth rates <1. Since habitat selection is often used as a proxy for habitat quality, we also assessed whether puma habitat selection predicted source and sink areas. Patterns of daytime puma habitat selection predicted source areas, while time-of-day-independent habitat selection performed less well as a proxy. These results illuminate the individual- and population-level consequences of habitat fragmentation for large carnivores, illustrating that habitat fragmentation can produce source-sink dynamics that may not be apparent from other metrics of habitat quality. Locally, conserving high-quality source habitat within the Santa Cruz Mountains is necessary to support long-term puma population persistence. More broadly, source-sink dynamics may at play for other carnivore populations in similar fragmented systems, and linking landscape conditions to population dynamics is essential for effective conservation. Caution should be used in inferring habitat quality from habitat selection alone, but these results shed light on metrics of selection that may be better or worse proxies to identify source areas for large carnivores.

On the road to self-sustainability: reintroduced migratory European northern bald ibises Geronticus eremita still need management interventions for population viability

AbstractThe northern bald ibis Geronticus eremita disappeared from Europe in the Middle Ages. Since 2003 a migratory population has been reintroduced in Central Europe. We conducted demographic analyses of the survival and reproduction of 384 northern bald ibises over a period of 12 years (2008–2019). These data also formed the basis for a population viability analysis simulating the possible future development of the northern bald ibis population under different scenarios. We analysed life stage-specific survival rates, rearing protocols and colonies, and the influence of stochastic catastrophic events and reinforcement translocations on population growth. Life stage-specific survival probabilities were 0.64–0.78. Forty-five per cent of the mature females reproduced, with a mean fecundity of 2.15 fledglings per nest. The complementary population viability analysis indicated that the Waldrappteam population is close to self-sustainability, with an estimated population growth rate of 0.95 and a 24% extinction probability within 50 years. Of the 326 future scenarios tested, 94% reached the criteria of extinction probabilities &lt; 5% and population growth rates &gt; 1. Stochastic catastrophic events had only a limited effect. Despite comparatively high survival and fecundity rates the population viability analysis indicated that to achieve self-sustainability the Waldrappteam population needs further translocations to support population growth and the implementation of effective measures against major mortality threats: illegal hunting in Italy and electrocution on unsecured power poles. The findings of this study are to be implemented as part of a second European LIFE project.

A synthesis of Eurasian Curlew (Numenius arquata arquata) demography and population viability to inform its management

The European population of Eurasian Curlew Numenius arquata arquata, a near‐threatened wader subspecies, has undergone pronounced population declines over the past 30 years. To assess the demography and viability of its global population, we surveyed studies quantifying demographic rates (productivity and survival) and complemented this review with new estimates of survival probability at the flyway scale. Then, using a demographic model, we estimated population growth rates while accounting for the range of variation of demographic parameters, and compared these estimates (expected based on demographic rates) with those observed based on population censuses. Both observed and expected average growth rates were negative but the observed rates were higher than estimates from demographic models (λ = 0.98–0.99 compared with 0.85–0.95). This discrepancy implies that there is geographical variation in the demography of different populations that is not fully covered by current demographic data, namely unstudied regions with higher productivity. According to our calculations, at the flyway scale, productivity is currently c. 0.57 fledglings per pair per year, higher than the average reported productivity of 0.29, but lower than the 0.68 needed to achieve a stable global population size (λ = 1). Adult survival, estimated at 0.90, was the most sensitive parameter determining population growth rates, but the low productivity levels over the last few decades seems to be the most probable cause of population declines. The negative population growth rates require immediate conservation actions to preserve adult survival and increase the extremely low productivity in western and northern European populations to values above 0.68 fledglings per pair per year. We hope our synthesis on the demographic status of Curlew in Europe will encourage the collection of more demographic data and allow concrete management goals at the flyway scale to be established in order to recover the global population of this iconic species.

A Bayesian multi‐stage modelling framework to evaluate impacts of energy development on wildlife populations: an application to greater sage‐grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus)

Increased demand for domestic production of renewable energy has led to expansion of energy infrastructure across western North America. Much of the western U.S. comprises remote landscapes that are home to a variety of vegetation communities and wildlife species, including the imperiled sagebrush ecosystem and indicator species such as greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus). Geothermal sources in particular have potential for continued development across the western U.S. but impacts to greater sage-grouse and other species are unknown. To address this information gap, we describe a novel two-pronged methodology that analyzes impacts of geothermal energy production on pattern and process of greater sage-grouse populations using (a) before-after control-impact (BACI) measures of population growth and lek absence rates and (b) concurrent-to-operation evaluations of demographic rates. Growth and absence rate analyses utilized 14 years of lek survey data collected prior (2005–2011) and concurrent (2012–2018) to geothermal operations at two sites in Nevada, USA. Demographic analyses utilized relocation data, restricted inference to concurrent years, and incorporated 17 additional control sites. Demographic results were applied to >100 potential geothermal sites distributed across the study region to generate spatially explicit predictions of unrealized population-level impacts.•State-space and generalized linear models yield estimates of population growth and lek absence rates, respectively, before and after the onset of geothermal energy production; distances ranging from 2–30 km are evaluated as alternative control-impact footprint hypotheses; this provides inference about the spatial extent as well as the magnitude of impacts associated with geothermal development.•Estimation of important population demographic rates are implemented to investigate the processes by which geothermal energy development might reduce population growth; independent estimates of confounding, environmental effects from 17 control sites are made spatially explicit within ‘impact’ models to establish baseline conditions otherwise masked by collinearity.•Population matrix models are built using estimates from demographic analyses to provide landscape mapping of impacts associated with potential geothermal sites.

Evaluation of seasonal site-level demography and management for northern bobwhite using integrated population models

Understanding the effects of landscape management on northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) population growth requires information on seasonal- and stage-specific demographic parameters linked across the full annual cycle. We evaluated site-level seasonal dynamics and population growth of bobwhites in southwest Missouri and compared differences between three extensively and two intensively managed sites from 2016 to 2019. Extensively managed sites were continuous tracts of native prairie. Intensively managed sites were composed of smaller native and non-native grassland units interspersed with strip crops, food plots, and woody field borders. We radio-marked adults and broods to estimate survival and productivity, conducted spring whistle counts to estimate abundance and developed a two-season, two-stage, two-sex integrated population model to estimate population dynamics. The number of young hatched per female-incubated nest was greater on the three extensively managed sites compared to the two intensively managed sites. Six-month period survival of adults during the breeding season was also greater on the three extensively managed sites compared to the two intensively managed sites. One hundred-day juvenile breeding season survival varied among sites and was highest on Talbot, compared to juvenile breeding season survival on the other four study sites. Six-month, non-breeding season period survival was lowest on the two smallest extensively managed sites, Stony Point Prairie and Shelton Conservation Area compared to non-breeding season survival on the other three study sites. Annual changes in bobwhite abundance were weakly correlated with female fecundity, though this positive relationship was stronger on extensively managed sites. Intensively managed sites exhibited low mean fecundity and breeding season adult survival relative to those that resulted in a stable population. Populations across sites declined from 2016 to 2019 and estimates of annual population growth rates overlapped across sites. Differences between observed changes in bobwhite abundance and estimates of observed demographic rates at some sites suggest unmeasured processes such as movement or bias associated with data and model assumptions influenced estimated vital rates. Overall, our integrated population model was an effective tool for understanding site-level seasonal dynamics and population growth of bobwhites. Based on comparisons of demography between extensively and intensively managed sites, we suggest increased native grassland cover managed with prescribed fire, low intensity grazing, and high mowing may increase bobwhite nesting success and breeding season adult survival, however, achieving stable or increasing rates of population growth may also require increased juvenile breeding season and non-breeding season survival.

Indigenous pig genetic resources: Preliminary documentation of current status and population trend of Tswana pigs in three districts of Botswana

This study aimed to assess the status, population and population trend of Tswana pigs in three districts of Botswana. A survey was conducted for three consecutive years from 2018 to 2020 in three districts to establish the status of indigenous Tswana pigs in the country in terms of their population. The three districts were Kgatleng, Kweneng and South-East. These districts were purposely chosen because they are the ones which have a considerable number of indigenous Tswana pigs. A structured questionnaire was administered to 71 farmers in 2018, 50 farmers in 2019 and 71 farmers in 2020. The population of indigenous Tswana pigs declined over the three years of study. South-East district had the highest number of indigenous pigs and Kweneng district had the least number during the three years of study. Sows and gilts were more than boars. The average herd size ranged from 3.5 to 20 over the three years. According to risk status classification by FAO, the status of indigenous Tswana breed in the southern districts of Botswana is ‘endangered’ and the estimated population growth rate is less than one. There is a strong positive and significant difference between the total number of pigs and the number of female pigs. The regression analysis indicated a positive impact of adult female pig numbers on the total number of Tswana pigs.

Range-Wide Population Projections for Northern Red-Bellied Cooters (Pseudemys rubriventris)

Northern Red-Bellied Cooters (Pseudemys rubriventris) have a disjunct distribution with a relictual population in southeastern Massachusetts and a larger range across the mid-Atlantic United States. The relictual population is currently listed with protections under the U.S. Endangered Species Act but the status of the population in the remainder of the species' range has not been assessed, and there is concern that it may be at risk of extinction without protection. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service requires scientific information of the species' status to inform conservation decisions. There is little empirical information available from P. rubriventris populations and, furthermore, the majority of what exists comes from the disjunct northern subpopulation. To fill data gaps in the species' life history and reduce geographic bias, we supplement available data from P. rubriventris with demographic rate estimates from other Pseudemys species to parameterize an age-structured population projection model. Our estimate of mean population growth rate was 0.987 (0.92–1.04), indicating that P. rubriventris populations may be in decline. However, there was considerable uncertainty in our results, with 35% of projections resulting in stable or increasing populations. Additional uncertainty about parameter values, geographic variation, and current threats limit the assessment. We discuss the merits and limitations of our population projection modeling (PPM) approach where other analytical methods are precluded by lack of available data.

Simple statistical models can be sufficient for testing hypotheses with population time-series data.

Time‐series data offer wide‐ranging opportunities to test hypotheses about the physical and biological factors that influence species abundances. Although sophisticated models have been developed and applied to analyze abundance time series, they require information about species detectability that is often unavailable. We propose that in many cases, simpler models are adequate for testing hypotheses. We consider three relatively simple regression models for time series, using simulated and empirical (fish and mammal) datasets. Model A is a conventional generalized linear model of abundance, model B adds a temporal autoregressive term, and model C uses an estimate of population growth rate as a response variable, with the option of including a term for density dependence. All models can be fit using Bayesian and non‐Bayesian methods. Simulation results demonstrated that model C tended to have greater support for long‐lived, lower‐fecundity organisms (K life‐history strategists), while model A, the simplest, tended to be supported for shorter‐lived, high‐fecundity organisms (r life‐history strategists). Analysis of real‐world fish and mammal datasets found that models A, B, and C each enjoyed support for at least some species, but sometimes yielded different insights. In particular, model C indicated effects of predictor variables that were not evident in analyses with models A and B. Bayesian and frequentist models yielded similar parameter estimates and performance. We conclude that relatively simple models are useful for testing hypotheses about the factors that influence abundance in time‐series data, and can be appropriate choices for datasets that lack the information needed to fit more complicated models. When feasible, we advise fitting datasets with multiple models because they can provide complementary information.

An initial assessment of the sustainability of waterbird harvest in the United Kingdom

Abstract There is a need to assess the sustainability of wild bird harvest in the United Kingdom (UK), and more widely, across Europe. Yet, data on populations and harvest sizes are limited. We used a demographic invariant method (DIM) to estimate potential excess growth (PEG) for populations of UK wintering waterbirds and calculated a sustainable harvest index (SHI) for each. We compared this with population trends and conservation classifications (e.g. Birds of Conservation Concern [BoCC]) to assess the sustainability of harvests and the utility of these classifications. Our approach found evidence for potential overharvest of mallard Anas platyrhynchos, Eurasian teal Anas crecca, gadwall Mareca strepera, Canada geese Branta canadensis, greylag geese Anser anser and woodcock Scolopax rusticola. Whether DIM methods predict overharvest is highly dependent on estimates of maximum population growth rates inferring PEG. We found estimates of maximum population growth to be variable across a range of different methods. We found no relationship between SHI and short‐term wintering trends or conservation classification under the UK's BoCC framework. There was however a positive relationship between SHI and long‐term wintering trends. Policy implications. Our results suggest that UK‐based harvest is unlikely to be a major determinant of population trends for the majority of UK overwintering waterbirds, but harvest rates for some species may exceed that required to maintain stationary population growth. The lack of a relationship between conservation classifications and SHI strongly suggests that such conservation classifications are not an appropriate tool for making decisions about harvest management. Instead, our assessment provides the basis for a framework to make evidence‐based decisions on sustainable harvest levels in the face of incomplete data. There is currently no clear policy instrument in the UK to support such a framework via controls on either harvest effort or mortality of waterfowl. We believe such an instrument is urgently needed to ensure the UK can adapt to changing pressures and ensure the sustainable use of our wildlife populations.