Hazard Estimates Research Articles

Participatory Bayesian Network modeling of climate change risks and adaptation regarding water supply: Integration of multi-model ensemble hazard estimates and local expert knowledge

Participatory Bayesian Network modeling of climate change risks and adaptation regarding water supply: Integration of multi-model ensemble hazard estimates and local expert knowledge

Storm surge hazard estimation along the US Gulf Coast: A Bayesian hierarchical approach

Storm surge hazard estimation along the US Gulf Coast: A Bayesian hierarchical approach

Quantitative estimation of water erosion hazards of soil in Sirwan district, based on the (EPM) model of Gavrilović and using (RS) and (GIS)

Soil erosion, is one of the geomorphic risks which is the result of the natural and humanistic reasons. Water creates a great risk on human life and its activities, especially in the humid and rainy areas, the aim of this study is to show and identify the spatial extent and the annual rates of soil erosion which is caused by water, there are some Models among them, Gavrelovic that is known as (Erosion Potential Method, EPM) is the best one, This will determine the ratio of soil erosion due to Surface water and exhibit the range of the risk, This model relies on some equations that are determined by several criteria such as(slope ratio, vegetation cover, temperature, rainfall, geological or soil composition .etc.). Different Remote Sensing data and GIS tools were used to reach the results of this study. The results of the study show that there are six levels of soil erosion in the Sirwan district and the sixth level is the most dangerous and disastrous. Its annual volume of soil erosion is more than 20,000 m3 per square kilometer. Meanwhile, it covers a large area of the district (135.76 km2), which is only (33.75%) of the total area of the district.

Modeling of Strong Ground Motion Within the Baikal Rift Zone: The Irkutsk Case

The Baikal Rift Zone is seismically active and each well recorded strong earthquake (for example, as the Kultukskoe earthquake (South of Baikal), on August 27, 2008, with Mw = 6.3) is the reason to refine existing models for seismic hazard estimates. There are several approaches to study strong ground motion, and one of them is to model synthetic accelerograms to reconstruct the rupture process. In this paper we are mostly interested in calculating accelerograms for the city of Irkutsk, considering source spectra with two corner frequencies, primarily, to reconstruct impact from the Kultukskoe earthquake.

On the estimation of landslide intensity, hazard and density via data-driven models

Maps that attempt to predict landslide occurrences have essentially stayed the same since 1972. In fact, most of the geo-scientific efforts have been dedicated to improve the landslide prediction ability with models that have largely increased their complexity but still have addressed the same binary classification task. In other words, even though the tools have certainly changed and improved in 50 years, the geomorphological community addressed and still mostly addresses landslide prediction via data-driven solutions by estimating whether a given slope is potentially stable or unstable. This concept corresponds to the landslide susceptibility, a paradigm that neglects how many landslides may trigger within a given slope, how large these landslides may be and what proportion of the given slope they may disrupt. The landslide intensity concept summarized how threatening a landslide or a population of landslide in a study area may be. Recently, landslide intensity has been spatially modeled as a function of how many landslides may occur per mapping unit, something, which has later been shown to closely correlate to the planimetric extent of landslides per mapping unit. In this work, we take this observation a step further, as we use the relation between landslide count and planimetric extent to generate maps that predict the aggregated size of landslides per slope, and the proportion of the slope they may affect. Our findings suggest that it may be time for the geoscientific community as a whole, to expand the research efforts beyond the use of susceptibility assessment, in favor of more informative analytical schemes. In fact, our results show that landslide susceptibility can be also reliably estimated (AUC of 0.92 and 0.91 for the goodness-of-fit and prediction skill, respectively) as part of a Log-Gaussian Cox Process model, from which the intensity expressed as count per unit (Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.91 and 0.90 for the goodness-of-fit and prediction skill, respectively) can also be derived and then converted into how large a landslide or several coalescing ones may become, once they trigger and propagate downhill. This chain of landslide intensity, hazard and density may lead to substantially improve decision-making processes related to landslide risk.

Contrasting Population Projections to Induce Divergent Estimates of Landslides Exposure Under Climate Change

AbstractAt first glance, assessing future landslide‐exposed population appears to be a straightforward task if landslide hazard estimates, climate change, and population projections are available. However, the intersection of landslide hazard with socioeconomic elements may result in significant variation of estimated landslide exposure due to considerable variations in population projections. This study aims to investigate the effects of different sources of population data on the evaluation of landslide‐exposed population in China under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios. We utilize multiple global climate models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and six high‐resolution spatially explicit static and dynamic population data sets to drive available landslide models. The results indicate an overall rise in landslide hazard projections, with an increase in the potential impact area of 0.4%–2.7% and an increase in the landslide frequency of 4.7%–20.1%, depending on the SSPs scenarios and future periods. However, the likely changes in future landslide exposed population, as modeled by incorporating population data from different sources with landslide hazard, yield divergent outcomes depending on the population data source. Thus, some of the projections depict an increase in future landslide exposure, while others show a clear decrease. The nationwide divergence ranged from −64% to +48%. These divergent findings were mainly attributed to differences in population data and a lesser extent to variations in GCMs. The present findings highlight the need to pay closer attention to the dynamic evolution of the elements at risk and the associated data uncertainties.

Cardiovascular efficacy and safety of antidiabetic agents: A network meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

An important characteristic of glucose-lowering therapies (GLTs) is their ability to prevent cardiovascular complications. We aimed to investigate the cardiorenal efficacy and general safety of GLTs. Multicentre, randomized, clinical trials that included over 100 participants comparing antidiabetic agents with a placebo or a different antidiabetic agent and reporting major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs), or primarily reporting heart failure, were searched in the PubMed, Embase and Cochrane databases. Data were extracted independently for random-effects network meta-analyses to calculate the hazard ratio estimates. Forty-three trials that compared nine types of GLTs were included in the present analysis. The risk of three-point MACE was reduced in the presence of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RAs), sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT-2is) and thiazolidinedione therapy compared with the placebo, dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors, or insulin therapy. GLP-1 RAs were favourable for cardiovascular and renal outcomes. SGLT-2is reduced renal outcomes by ~40%, which was superior to other GLTs. Thiazolidinedione therapy increased the risks of hospitalization for heart failure and had no benefits on mortality. Adverse events leading to drug discontinuation were higher with GLP-1 RAs and thiazolidinediones than placebo. GLP-1 RAs, SGLT-2is and thiazolidinediones reduced three-point MACE compared with other GLTs. Each drug class had unique advantages and disadvantages.

Evaluation of the Modified Oxford Score in Recurrent IgA Nephropathy in North American Kidney Transplant Recipients: The Banff Recurrent Glomerulonephritis Working Group Report.

The modified Oxford classification mesangial and endocapillary hypercellularity, segmental sclerosis, interstitial fibrosis/tubular atrophy, and the presence of crescents (MEST-C) of immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN) was recently shown to be a predictor of graft failure in Asians with recurrent IgAN. We aimed to validate these findings in a cohort from North American centers participating in the Banff Recurrent Glomerulopathies Working Group. We examined 171 transplant recipients with end-stage kidney disease because of IgAN; 100 of them with biopsy-proven recurrent IgAN (57 of them had complete MEST-C scores) and 71 with no recurrence. IgAN recurrence, which was associated with younger age at transplantation ( P = 0.012), strongly increased the risk of death-censored graft failure (adjusted hazard ratio, 5.10 [95% confidence interval (CI), 2.26-11.51]; P < 0.001). Higher MEST-C score sum was associated with death-censored graft failure (adjusted hazard ratio, 8.57 [95% CI, 1.23-59.85; P = 0.03] and 61.32 [95% CI, 4.82-779.89; P = 0.002] for score sums 2-3 and 4-5 versus 0, respectively), and so were the single components endocapillary hypercellularity, interstitial fibrosis/tubular atrophy, and crescents ( P < 0.05 each). Overall, most of the pooled adjusted hazard ratio estimates associated with each MEST-C component were consistent with those from the Asian cohort (heterogeneity I2 close to 0%, and P > 0.05). Our findings may validate the prognostic usefulness of the Oxford classification for recurrent IgAN and support the inclusion of the MEST-C score in allograft biopsies diagnostic reports.

Overall survival of breast cancer patients in association with ESR1 polymorphism

Breast cancer (BC) is the most common carcinoma in women. Genetic polymorphism in estrogen receptor-α (ESR1) gene is involved in alteration in receptor expression, function and evolving as important determinant of breast cancer susceptibility. The present study aimed to evaluate single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in breast carcinoma to find out co-relation with overall survival (OS) of breast carcinoma patients. In present study, overall survival of two hundred breast cancer patients with single nucleotide polymorphism was studied in detail. OS was evaluated by Kaplan-Meier method and then analysed with the log-rank test. The cox regression method was used for analyzing data of survival, hazard ratio estimation and its confidence interval value. The significant association of OS was observed with AG genotype of rs9340799 and rs373404617 (Log-rank χ2 = 18.1658, DF = 2, p = 0.0351; χ2 = 5.7632, DF = 2, p = 0.0560 respectively). The genotypes of ESR1 SNP rs9340799 and rs373404617 were predictive of good outcomes of breast cancer. This study suggests that overall survival studies are helpful in investigating progression or regression of the disease which is required for perfect management of breast carcinoma. Future directions include genetic and proteomic-based approaches for breast carcinoma development and progress.

Factors associated with exclusive breastfeeding of children under six months of age in Cote d’Ivoire

BackgroundDespite benefits of exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) and its strategic place in the national guidelines for infant and young child feeding, its practice remains insufficient in Cote d’Ivoire. It is therefore important to identify its early stopping associated factors. We aimed to (i) assess the extent of children’s exposure to exclusive breastfeeding and the associated explanatory factors for discontinuation before six months, and (ii) to profile non-exclusively breastfed children and interrelationships between these factors.MethodsA secondary analysis of data from the 2016 Cote d’Ivoire Fifth Multi Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS5) of 980 children under six months of age was conducted in this study. Data were analyzed using the actuarial method of survival hazard estimation combined with the Wilcoxon (Gehan) test, discrete time proportional hazards regression models, and Multiple Correspondence Analysis (MCA) to profile the children.ResultsMaternal exposure to counseling session, age at delivery, and child sex were significantly associated with the likelihood of discontinuing exclusive breastfeeding before the first six months of life. Children deprived of EBF resided in urban areas, in high and very high economic welfare households. Their mothers had a secondary education or higher and had three or fewer children.Logistic analysis showed that health status and sex of the child were significantly associated (P < 0.001) with exclusive breastfeeding. An extremely important and rarely studied factor is that children who were sick in weeks prior to the survey were more likely to remain exclusive breastfeeding (adjusted OR 1.80; 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 1.452, 2.234). Girls are less likely to be exclusively breastfed than boys (adjusted OR 1.48; 95% CI 1.22, 1.798). Low standard of living was associated with early cessation of EBF (adjusted OR 2.15; CI 1.325, 3.499). The duration of the exclusive breastfeeding was significantly longer among mothers with high exposure to medical discourse (adjusted OR 0.74; CI 0.595, 0.91).ConclusionsImproving the practice of exclusive breastfeeding in Cote d’Ivoire requires strengthening the capacities of health professionals in terms of advice and assistance to mothers for the practice of exclusive breastfeeding and its maintenance until six months of age, regardless of the health status and sex of the child.

Occurrences, sources and health hazard estimation of potentially toxic elements in the groundwater of Garhwal Himalaya, India

High concentrations of potentially toxic elements (PTEs) in potable water can cause severe human health disorders. Present study examined the fitness of groundwater for drinking purpose based on the occurrence of nine PTEs in a heavy pilgrim and tourist influx region of the Garhwal Himalaya, India. The concentrations of analyzed PTEs in groundwater were observed in the order of Zn > Mn > As > Al > Cu > Cr > Se > Pb > Cd. Apart from Mn and As, other PTEs were within the corresponding guideline values. Spatial maps were produced to visualize the distribution of the PTEs in the area. Estimated water pollution indices and non-carcinogenic risk indicated that the investigated groundwater is safe for drinking purpose, as the hazard index was < 1 for all the water samples. Assessment of the cancer risk of Cr, As, Cd, and Pb also indicated low health risks associated with groundwater use, as the values were within the acceptable range of ≤ 1 × 10−6 to 1 × 10−4. Multivariate statistical analyses were used to describe the various possible geogenic and anthropogenic sources of the PTEs in the groundwater resources although the contamination levels of the PTEs were found to pose no serious health risk. However, the present study recommends to stop the discharge of untreated wastewater and also to establish cost-effective as well as efficient water treatment facility nearby the study area. Present work’s findings are vital as they may protect the health of the massive population from contaminated water consumption. Moreover, it can help the researchers, governing authorities and water supplying agencies to take prompt and appropriate decisions for water security.

Symptom Clusters in Patients With Advanced Cancer: A Prospective Longitudinal Cohort Study to Examine Their Stability and Prognostic Significance.

This study's purpose was to assess symptom cluster (SC) stability during disease progression and determine their strength of association with survival in patients with advanced cancer . Consecutively eligible patients with advanced cancer not receiving cancer-specific treatment and referred to a Tertiary Palliative Care Clinic were enrolled in a prospective cohort study. At first consultation (D0) and in subsequent consultations at day 15 (D15) and day 30 (D30), patients rated 9 symptoms through the Edmonton Symptom Assessment System scale (0-10) and 10 others using a Likert scale (1-5). Principal components factor analysis with varimax rotation was used to determine SCs at each consultation. Of 318 patients with advanced cancer, 301 met eligibility criteria with a median age of 69 years (range 37-94). Three SCs were identified: neuro-psycho-metabolic (NPM), gastrointestinal, and sleep impairment, with some variations in their constitution over time. Exploratory factor analysis accounted for 40% of variance of observed variables in all SCs. Shorter median survival was observed continuously for NPM cluster (D0 23 vs. 58 days, P < .001; D15 41 vs. 104 days, P=.004; D30 46 vs. 114 days, P = .002), although the presence of 2 or more SCs on D0 and D15 also had prognostic significance (D0: 21 vs. 45 days, P = .005; D30: 50 vs. 96 days, P = .040). In a multivariable model, NPM cluster (D0 hazard ratio estimate: HR 1.64; 95%CI, 1.17-2.31; P = .005; D15 HR: 2.51; 95%CI, 1.25-5.05; P = .009; D30 HR: 3.9; 95%CI, 1.54-9.86; P = .004) and hospitalization (D0 HR: 2.27; 95%CI, 1.47-3.51; P < .001; D15 HR: 2.43; 95%CI, 1.18-5.01; P = .016; D30 HR: 3.41; 95%CI, 1.35-8.62; P = .009) were independently and significantly associated with worse survival. Three clinically relevant SCs were identified, and their constitution had small variations, maintaining a stable set of nuclear symptoms through disease progression. Presence of the NPM cluster and hospitalization maintained their prognostic value over time.

Expression and prognostic role of STAT5a across cancer types.

Studies examining the role of signal transducer and activator of transcription 5 (STAT5) in various cancers have produced controversial results. To address this controversy, we examined the prognostic role of STAT5a in cancer patients across multiple cancers. Transcription levels of STAT5a between tumors and normal tissues, obtained from public databases, were analyzed for statistical differences using Cox regression analysis with the outcome as overall survival and covariate of interest as high STAT5a expression. Meta-analysis was then conducted to summarize the hazard ratio estimate from the Cox regression analyses. We found that STAT5a was significantly under-expressed in breast, lung, and ovarian cancers, while STAT5a was significantly overexpressed in lymphoid neoplasm diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, glioblastoma, and glioma. High STAT5a expression was significantly associated with favorable survival in bladder cancer (lnHR = -0.8689 [-1.4087, -0.3292], P-value = 0.0016), breast cancer (lnHR = -0.7805 [-1.1394, -0.4215], P-value < 0.0001) and lung cancer (lnHR = -0.3255 [-0.6427, -0.0083], P-value = 0.0443). After adjusting for clinicopathological factors, high STAT5a expression remained significantly associated with favorable survival in breast cancer (lnHR = -0.6091 [-1.0810, -0.1372], P-value = 0.0114). These results suggest that higher STAT5a expression is associated with favorable overall survival in breast cancer, and therefore might have protective effects, and that STAT5a expression could be a potential prognostic biomarker, especially in breast cancer. However, the prognostic role of STAT5a is dependent on cancer type.

Paleoseismological investigation along the back thrust bounding the northern limb of Janauri Anticline, NW Himalaya, India

Regardless of numerous paleoseismological studies along the active front of the Himalayas, it still lacks precision with respect to earthquake recurrence, rupture, slip mechanism, etc. which hinders understanding of the region's seismic hazards. Considering the seismic hazard posed by the previous Himalayan earthquakes, for instance, from Kashmir, Chamba, Kumaun-Garhwal, Nepal, etc., it becomes vital to identify the seismogenic structures and length of rupture that might be affected in the near future. In the present study, the paleoseismological investigation is carried out along the ∼150 km long Back Thrust (BT) of Himalayan Frontal Thrust bounding the northern limb of Janauri Anticline (JA) in northwest frontal Himalaya. By taking advantage of the optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating technique, the present study reports three newly identified seismic events along the BT i.e. 535-1269 AD Event I, 1447–1636 AD Event II, and 1660–1929 AD Event III. Our findings at Palahta locality of Punjab state complement, i.e., 1447–1636 AD (Event II), the effectiveness of previously identified more recent earthquake (MRE) at Hajipur, which further suggest the rupture length of ∼97 km along BT. The other results on the timing of seismic events (Event I and Event III) are well thought out and considered here as independent. Such independent events tend to fill an important gap in the database and provide us an opportunity to explore the paleoseismic events in more detail along the seismogenic structures of the Himalayas. Such a well-established database would assist in better seismic hazard estimation and will directly influence the long-term planning for infrastructure development in the regions like the Himalayas.

Effects on Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Estimates That Result from Nonuniqueness in Declustering an Earthquake Catalog

ABSTRACT Declustering a seismicity catalog to obtain a background seismicity model for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is not a uniquely defined process. Zaliapin and Ben-Zion (2020) present a method for randomly thinning a complete catalog by removing nearest-neighbor earthquakes. The number of events in the residual catalog depends on a continuous parameter, α0, called the “cluster threshold.” Varying α0 results in a family of residual catalogs, and when enough events are removed the catalog is nearly Poissonian and can be considered declustered. This family of thinned catalogs is used to generate a corresponding family of background seismicity models, which in turn are used to find the probabilistic seismic hazard on an east–west profile across California. Additional models are developed by renormalizing the thinned Zaliapin and Ben-Zion (2020) catalogs to the catalog rate of earthquakes with moment magnitude Mw≥5 and from the maximum shaking earthquake catalog of Anderson et al. (2021). Adding fault contributions, the simplified estimate of the hazards with probability of exceedance of 2% in 50 yr are comparable to the 2018 National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM). Where faults dominate the hazard, the method of thinning has little effect. The range of hazard estimates from the set of background models alone illustrate the range of effects of catalog thinning for any location where faults do not dominate. The spread of background hazard estimates at most sites is generally within a multiplicative factor of ∼2 of the hazard estimated from a catalog declustered for the 2018 NSHM. However, the spread in the estimates is very large in the vicinity of aftershock zones of large earthquakes. The family of randomly thinned catalogs, including alternative smoothing parameters and optional rescaling, may span the body and range of background hazard that can be inferred from the known history of earthquakes.

Contribution of traditional Japanese Kampo medicines, kakkonto with shosaikotokakikyosekko, in treating patients with mild-to-moderate coronavirus disease 2019: Further analysis of a multicenter, randomized controlled trial

We previously reported the finding of symptom relief in a randomized controlled trial with the combined use of kakkonto and shosaikotokakikyosekko added to conventional treatment in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). For further evaluation, we performed post hoc analysis focused on symptom disappearance without recurrence, to determine a clearer effect of Kampo medicine.Patients with mild and moderate COVID-19 were randomly allocated to a control group receiving symptomatic therapy or a Kampo group receiving kakkonto (2.5 g) with shosaikotokakikyosekko (2.5 g) three times daily in addition to symptomatic therapy. The data of 161 patients (Kampo group, n = 81; control group, n = 80) were analyzed post hoc for the time to symptom disappearance.Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard estimates of disappearance of symptoms showed that all and each symptom targeted in this study disappeared faster in the Kampo group than in the control group, although not statistically significant (all symptomatic cases; hazard ratio [HR] 3.73, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.46−29.98, log-rank p = 0.1763). In a supplemental assessment using covariate adjustment and competing risk analysis, fever disappeared faster in the Kampo group than in the control group (all symptomatic cases, HR 1.62, 95% CI 0.99−2.64, p = 0.0557; unvaccinated cases, HR 1.68, 95% CI 1.00−2.83, p = 0.0498) and shortness of breath disappeared significantly faster in Kampo group than in control group (all symptomatic cases, HR 1.92, 95% CI 1.07−3.42, p = 0.0278; unvaccinated cases, HR 2.15, 95% CI 1.17−3.96, p = 0.0141).These results demonstrate the advantages of Kampo treatment for acute COVID-19.

Human displacements, fatalities, and economic damages linked to remotely observed floods

We present a new open source dataset FLODIS that links estimates of flood-induced human displacements, fatalities, and economic damages to flooded areas observed through remote sensing. The dataset connects displacement data from the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC), as well as data on fatalities and damages from the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT), with the Global Flood Database (GFD), a satellite-based inventory of historic flood footprints. It thereby provides a spatially explicit estimate of the flood hazard underlying each individual disaster event. FLODIS contains two datasets with event-specific information for 335 human displacement events and 695 mortality/damage events that occurred around the world between 2000 and 2018. Additionally, we provide estimates of affected population, GDP, and critical infrastructure, as well as socio-economic indicators; and we provide geocoding for displacement events ascribed to other types of disasters, such as tropical cyclones, so that they may be linked to corresponding hazard estimates in future work. FLODIS facilitates integrated flood risk analysis, allowing, for example, for detailed assessments of local flood-damage and displacement vulnerability.

The Analysis of 222Rn and 220Rn Natural Radioactivity for Local Hazard Estimation: The Case Study of Cerveteri (Central Italy).

Radon (222Rn) is the second most common cause of lung cancer after smoking. As radon poses a significant risk to human health, radon-affected areas should be identified to ensure people's awareness of risk and remediation. The primary goal of this research was to investigate the local natural radioactivity (in soils, groundwater, and indoors) because of the presence of tuff outcrops (from middle-lower Pleistocene volcanic activity) that naturally produce radioactive gas radon at Cerveteri (Rome, Central Italy). The results of the radon survey highlighted moderate (>16,000 Bq/m3) but localized anomalies in soils in correspondence with a funerary site pertaining to the Etruscan Necropolis of Cerveteri, which extends over a volcanic rock plateau. Indoor radon measurements were performed at several tuff-made dwellings, and the results showed medium-low (<200 Bq/m3) values of indoor radon except for some cases exceeding the reference level (>300 Bq/m3) recommended by the 2013/59 Euratom Directive. Although no clinical data exist regarding the health effects of thoron (220Rn) on humans, the study of 220Rn average activity concentration in the soil gas survey reveals new insights for the interpretation of radon sources that can affect dwellings, even taking into account the considerable difference in the half-lives of 222Rn and 220Rn.

Criteria-based visualization design for hazard maps

Abstract. Probabilistic seismic hazard estimates are a key ingredient of earthquake risk mitigation strategies and are often communicated through seismic hazard maps. Though the literature suggests that visual design properties are key for effective communication using such maps, guidelines on how to optimally design hazard maps are missing from the literature. Current maps use color palettes and data classification schemes which have well-documented limitations that may inadvertently miscommunicate seismic hazard. We surveyed the literature on color and classification schemes to identify design criteria that have empirical support for communicating hazard information. These criteria were then applied to redesign the seismic hazard map for Germany. We established several communication goals for this map, including essential properties about moderate-hazard seismic regions and a critical hazard threshold related to the German seismic building codes. We elucidate our redesign process and the selection of new colors and classification schemes that satisfy the evidence-based criteria. In a mixed-methods survey, we evaluate the original and redesigned seismic hazard maps, finding that the redesign satisfies all the communication goals and improves users’ awareness about the spatial spread of seismic hazard relative to the original. We consider practical implications for the design of hazard maps across the natural hazards.

Fault displacement hazard estimation at lifeline–fault crossings: A simplified approach for engineering applications

Lifelines, such as pipelines, roads, and tunnels, are critical infrastructure and when crossing active tectonic faults, a reliable estimation of the fault displacement in case of an earthquake is required. The first and simplest approach is to use empirical fault scaling relations to compute the design fault displacement, but this may result in an unknown level of safety. Thus, the probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis (PFDHA) is the appropriate tool to assess the fault displacement hazard within a performance-based framework. Based upon an established PFDHA model, we present a simplified approach for engineering applications focusing on the lifeline–fault crossing along with appropriate simplifications and assumptions to extend its applicability to numerous faults. The aim is to provide a structure-independent approach of PFDHA that can be used when a site-specific study is not required, not possible (e.g., absence of recent sediments for dating past events), or too cumbersome, e.g., for lifeline route selection. Additionally, an in-depth investigation is presented on the key parameters, such as maximum earthquake magnitude, fault length, recurrence rate of all earthquakes above a minimum magnitude, and lifeline-fault crossing site, and how they affect the hazard level. This approach will be the basis for deriving hazard-consistent expressions to approximate fault displacement for use within the Eurocodes. The latter is intended to serve as a compromise between hazard-agnostic fault scaling relations and a comprehensive PFDHA, which requires detailed calculations and site-specific seismological data.