Estimates Of Efficacy Research Articles

Estimating counterfactual placebo HIV incidence in HIV prevention trials without placebo arms based on markers of HIV exposure.

Developing alternative approaches to evaluating absolute efficacy of new HIV prevention interventions is a priority, as active-controlled designs, whereby individuals without HIV are randomized to the experimental intervention or an active control known to be effective, are increasing. With this design, however, the efficacy of the experimental intervention to prevent HIV acquisition relative to placebo cannot be evaluated directly. One proposed approach to estimate absolute prevention efficacy is to use an HIV exposure marker, such as incident rectal gonorrhea, to infer counterfactual placebo HIV incidence. We formalize a statistical framework for this approach, specify working regression and likelihood-based estimation approaches, lay out three assumptions under which valid inference can be achieved, evaluate finite-sample performance, and illustrate the approach using a recent active-controlled HIV prevention trial. We find that in finite samples and under correctly specified assumptions accurate and precise estimates of counterfactual placebo incidence and prevention efficacy are produced. Based on data from the DISCOVER trial in men and transgender women who have sex with men, and assuming correctly specified assumptions, the estimated prevention efficacy for tenofovir alafenamide plus emtricitabine is 98.1% (95% confidence interval: 96.4%-99.4%) using the working model approach and 98.1% (95% confidence interval: 96.4%-99.7%) using the likelihood-based approach. Careful assessment of the underlying assumptions, study of their violation, evaluation of the approach in trials with placebo arms, and advancement of improved exposure markers are needed before the HIV exposure marker approach can be relied upon in practice.

A critical re-evaluation of the slope factor of the operational model of agonism: When to exponentiate operational efficacy

Agonist efficacy denoting the “strength” of agonist action is a cornerstone in the proper assessment of agonist selectivity and signalling bias. The simulation models are very accurate but complex and hard to fit experimental data. The parsimonious operational model of agonism (OMA) has become successful in the determination of agonist efficacies and ranking them. In 1983, Black and Leff introduced the slope factor to the OMA to make it more flexible and allow for fitting steep as well as flat concentration–response curves. First, we performed a functional analysis to indicate the potential pitfalls of the OMA. Namely, exponentiation of operational efficacy may break relationships among the OMA parameters. The fitting of the Black & Leff equation to the theoretical curves of several models of functional responses and the experimental data confirmed the fickleness of the exponentiation of operational efficacy affecting estimates of operational efficacy as well as other OMA parameters. In contrast, fitting The OMA based on the Hill equation to the same data led to better estimates of model parameters. In conclusion, Hill equation-based OMA should be preferred over the Black & Leff equation when functional-response curves differ in the slope factor. Otherwise, the Black & Leff equation should be used with extreme caution acknowledging potential pitfalls.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of biologics for the treatment of chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps in Canada

BackgroundDupilumab, omalizumab, and mepolizumab are the three biologics currently approved for use in CRSwNP in Canada. Despite evidence of efficacy, their cost-effectiveness, which is a key factor influencing prescribing patterns, has not yet been compared to each other.MethodsA cost-effectiveness model using quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) was constructed using a Decision Tree Markov analysis. A third-party healthcare payer perspective and a 10-year time horizon was used. A willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of 50,000 Canadian dollars (CAD) per QALY was used to determine cost-effectiveness. Dupilumab, omalizumab, and mepolizumab were each compared to each other.ResultsOmalizumab was the most cost-effective biologic using current estimates of cost and efficacy in CRSwNP. Using omalizumab as a baseline, dupilumab had an ICER of $235,305/QALY. Mepolizumab was dominated by omalizumab and dupilumab at the current drug prices and estimates of efficacy. Sensitivity analyses determined that when increasing the WTP threshold to $150,000/QALY, dupilumab became cost-effective compared to omalizumab in 22.5% of simulation scenarios. Additionally, altering dosing frequency had a significant effect on cost-effectiveness.ConclusionWhen comparing the relative cost-effectiveness of biologics in recalcitrant CRSwNP, omalizumab currently appears to be the most cost-effective option. Future reductions in drug prices, adjustments to currently approved dosing regimens, better patient selection, and improvements in sinus surgery outcomes will challenge the current cost-effectiveness models and necessitate reassessment as treatments for CRSwNP continue to evolve.

Clinical Benefit, Price, and Uptake for Cancer Biosimilars vs Reference Drugs in China

The high cost of biologics used to treat cancer has been an increasing burden in the world. In China, the recent approval of cancer biosimilar drugs to resolve this problem is promising, but evidence of clinical benefits, price, and uptake for these drugs is still lacking. To compare characteristics of pivotal clinical trials in China and other countries for biosimilars of bevacizumab, rituximab, and trastuzumab and investigate the efficacy or effectiveness, safety, and immunogenicity outcomes of cancer biosimilars compared with reference drugs by meta-analysis. For this systematic review and meta-analysis, PubMed, Embase, the Cochrane Library, and ClinicalTrials.gov were searched for published studies from database inception to February 1, 2023, using the search topics (cancers) AND (biosimilars). Randomized clinical trials and cohort studies that included patients with cancer were included. Two authors independently extracted the outcome estimates and characteristics for each study. A random-effects meta-analysis was performed to summarize the relative estimates with 95% CIs. This study was performed following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses guideline. Clinical trial characteristics were collected for biosimilars of bevacizumab, rituximab, and trastuzumab. The relative estimates of efficacy or effectiveness (objective response rate, progression-free survival, and overall survival), safety, and immunogenicity outcomes were analyzed for biosimilars vs reference drugs. The weighted average price and uptake rate were evaluated for biosimilars relative to their reference drugs between 2015 and 2022. A total of 39 RCTs (involving 18 791 patients) and 10 cohort studies (involving 1998 patients) were included. The biosimilars of bevacizumab (16 RCTs; risk ratio [RR], 0.97; 95% CI, 0.93-1.01; P = .17), rituximab (12 RCTs; RR, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.98-1.08; P = .70), and trastuzumab (9 RCTs: RR, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.97-1.12; P = .29) met equivalence with reference biologics in regard to the objective response rate. The results summarized from cohort studies were consistent with those from RCTs. In 2022, cancer biosimilars were priced at 69% to 90% of the costs for the reference drugs, and their uptake reached 54% to 83% in China. This systematic review and meta-analysis indicated that cancer biosimilars provided comparable clinical benefits at lower prices compared with reference drugs. These findings suggest the potential feasibility of expediting the transition from reference drugs to biosimilars to benefit more patients with cancer.

Short-, Mid-, and Long-Term Efficacy of Deucravacitinib Versus Biologics and Nonbiologics for Plaque Psoriasis: A Network Meta-Analysis.

Deucravacitinib, a newly approved oral medication for the treatment of patients with moderate to severe plaque psoriasis, demonstrated efficacy versus apremilast and placebo in two phase3 randomized controlled trials (RCTs). A systematic review and network meta-analysis (NMA) indirectly compared deucravacitinib with other relevant systemic biologic/nonbiologic treatments. Online databases were searched for RCTs published through October 2021. Eligible studies were head-to-head comparisons between systemic therapies and/or placebo reporting 50%, 75%, 90%, or 100% improvement in Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI) from baseline in adults with moderate to severe plaque psoriasis. Comparisons included tumor necrosis factor inhibitors, interleukin (IL)-17, IL-23, and IL 12/23 inhibitors, and systemic nonbiologics. A multinomial Bayesian NMA was used to derive estimates of the relative efficacy of deucravacitinib and other systemic therapies. Response probabilities for each treatment and corresponding 95% credible intervals (CrIs) for achieving a PASI response were calculated over short-, mid-, and long-term follow-up (weeks10-16, 24-28, and 44-60). The NMA included 47 RCTs. Deucravacitinib showed the highest PASI75 response rates among nonbiologic systemic therapies across time points. Deucravacitinib PASI75 response rate (95%CrI) over short-term follow-up was 54.1% (46.5-61.6), within the range of first-generation biologics (etanercept, 39.7% [31.6-48.3]; infliximab, 79.0% [74.0-83.5]). At mid-term follow-up, deucravacitinib PASI75 increased to 63.3% (58.0-68.4). At long-term follow-up, deucravacitinib PASI75 was 65.9% (58.0-73.4), comparable to first-generation biologics adalimumab (62.8%; 55.3-69.6) and ustekinumab (68.0%; 64.6-71.5). Patients receiving deucravacitinib were more likely to achieve PASI75 response versus apremilast and methotrexate across all time points. The long-term PASI75 response rate for deucravacitinib was similar to those of adalimumab and ustekinumab. The approval of deucravacitinib offers patients the choice of an oral therapy with long-term efficacy similar to that of some biologics.

Efficacy estimates of oral pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV prevention in cisgender women with partial adherence.

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) with tenofovir (TFV) disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine administered orally daily is effective in preventing human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) acquisition in both men and women with sufficient adherence; however, the adherence-efficacy relationship in cisgender women has not been well established. We calculated the adherence-efficacy curve for cisgender women by using HIV incidence and plasma TFV concentration data from three trials (FEM-PrEP, VOICE and Partners PrEP). We imputed TFV diphosphate (TFV-DP) concentrations, a measure of long-term adherence, from TFV quantification by using data from the HIV Prevention Trials Network 082 study, which measured both TFV-DP and TFV concentrations. Two, four and seven pills per week reduced HIV incidence by 59.3% (95% credible interval (CrI) 29.9-95.8%), 83.8% (95% CI 51.7-99.8%) and 95.9% (95% CI 72.6-100%), respectively. Our adherence-efficacy curve can be validated and updated by HIV prevention studies that directly measure TFV-DP concentrations. The curve suggests that high adherence confers high protection in cisgender women. However, the lower efficacy with partial adherence highlights the need for new PrEP products and interventions to increase adherence.

Statistical considerations in long-term efficacy evaluation of anti-cancer therapies.

Anti-cancer therapy has been a significant focus of research. Developing and marketing various types and mechanisms of anti-cancer therapies benefit a variety of patients significantly. The long-term benefit to patients in evaluating the risk-benefit ratio of anti-cancer therapy has become a significant concern. This paper discusses the evaluation of long-term efficacy within the estimand framework and summarizes the various strategies for addressing potential intercurrent events. Non-proportional hazards of survival data may arise with novel anti-cancer therapies, leading to potential bias in conventional evaluation methods. This paper reviews statistical methods for addressing this issue, including novel endpoints, hypothesis testing, and efficacy estimation methods. We also discuss the influences of treatment switching. Although advanced methods have been developed to address the non-proportional hazard, they still have limitations that require continued collaborative efforts to resolve issues.

A bioassay method validation framework for laboratory and semi-field tests used to evaluate vector control tools

Vector control interventions play a fundamental role in the control and elimination of vector-borne diseases. The evaluation of vector control products relies on bioassays, laboratory and semi-field tests using live insects to assess the product’s effectiveness. Bioassay method development requires a rigorous validation process to ensure that relevant methods are used to capture appropriate entomological endpoints which accurately and precisely describe likely efficacy against disease vectors as well as product characteristics within the manufacturing tolerance ranges for insecticide content specified by the World Health Organization. Currently, there are no standardized guidelines for bioassay method validation in vector control. This report presents a framework for bioassay validation that draws on accepted validation processes from the chemical and healthcare fields and which can be applied for evaluating bioassays and semi-field tests in vector control. The validation process has been categorized into four stages: preliminary development; feasibility experiments; internal validation, and external validation. A properly validated method combined with an appropriate experimental design and data analyses that account for both the variability of the method and the product is needed to generate reliable estimates of product efficacy to ensure that at-risk communities have timely access to safe and reliable vector control products.

B-122 Estimated Improvement of Sigma Error Metrics Associated with Manual Secondary Result Review, and Subsequent Artificial Intelligence Driven Quality Assurance

Abstract Background Analytical and post-analytical errors are a persistent problem, which can be benchmarked using sigma metrics. Manual processes are associated with error rates of 3–4 sigma. Secondary review of manual reporting is meant to reduce/eliminate errors and is widely used, yet the true efficacy of manual secondary review is difficult to assess. Kidney stone analysis is a manually intensive process, requiring personnel to identify stone composition from spectra and to transcribe stone percent composition into an LIS system. Recently, we developed an AI program that allows for quantitative determination of kidney stone composition from spectra. This allows for a unique opportunity to estimate error rates associated with manual reporting and those following secondary review by means of subsequent AI quality assurance analysis. Methods Experienced technologists assessed stone composition and estimated the percent of each component (± 10%), based on Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy. These manual spectral composition assessments are secondarily reviewed by other experienced technologists for identity and percentage composition accuracy. The recently described Kidney stone AI spectral analysis (RokkStar) was implemented to assess reported stone composition identity and percent composition for agreement following secondary review in 159 334 stone reports. AI flagged discrepant reports were reviewed by personnel and reports were revised when appropriate. Secondary reviewer error detection rate was obtained by monitoring detection in a subset of 7440 kidney stones, and was that rate was extrapolated to establish secondary review error detection rate over the entire data set. The sum (total error) of estimated secondary reviewer error detection, and well as AI-mediated error detection, and all client reported errors were used to determine error rates in sigma following manual reporting, secondary review, and AI quality assurance. Results Manual entry led to an estimated 2060 errors in 159 334 stone reports, yielding an initial sigma value of 3.73. Secondary manual review resulted in an estimated 1909 (error detection rate of 92.5%) of these errors being detected over the entire report set, improving the sigma value to 4.61. Post-verification AI caught an additional 138 errors, leading to an improved post-AI sigma value of 5.27. Post-AI quality assurance, there were 13 remaining errors, 9 of which were manual reporting process deviations subsequently caught by laboratory staff, and 4 were reporting errors observed by client physicians. All 13 of these errors involved usual stone constituents or typographical errors that were not assessed by the current AI quality assurance version. Conclusion This study represents a unique large-scale estimate of efficacy of secondary result review by means of AI quality assurance review. While the presence of undetected errors cannot be completely ruled out, in this case the relative paucity of client reported errors, as well the alignment of the estimated rate of manual errors with previous reports may indicate that most errors were detected in this system. Importantly, manual secondary review improved errors rates by ∼0.9 sigma, and the use of AI further improved estimated overall sigma metric by ∼0.7, leading to a “world class” 5+ sigma level for this complex reporting process.

Efficacy of a fixed-dose combination injectable (0.2 mg/kg doramectin + 6.0 mg/kg levamisole hydrochloride) in Australian cattle against naturally acquired gastrointestinal nematode infections

Australian producers have long used macrocyclic lactones (MLs) to successfully control cattle gastrointestinal nematodes (GINs) and consequently improve production parameters. However, the trajectory of ML resistance development in cattle GINs is following that of small ruminant nematode populations, highlighting a need for novel treatment options to provide efficacy in the current environment and interrupt the long-term establishment of ML-resistant GIN populations in Australian cattle. Here, we describe three field studies conducted in Australia to evaluate the efficacy of a single administration of a novel fixed-dose combination injectable (FDCI) endectocide against naturally acquired infections of cattle GINs. The FDCI is administered subcutaneously to deliver 0.2 mg/kg doramectin and 6 mg/kg levamisole hydrochloride (HCl). Study sites consisted of three farms in New South Wales (n = 2) and Victoria (n = 1). At each site, cattle were randomly allocated into one of three treatment groups: (1) untreated control (saline), (2) FDCI (0.2 mg/kg doramectin, 6 mg/kg levamisole HCl) or (3) positive control (0.2 mg/kg ivermectin). All treatments were administered on Day 0. Fecal samples were collected prior to treatment on Days −1 (Study 3) or 0 (Studies 1 and 2) and again on Day 14 (post-treatment) to evaluate efficacy via fecal egg count (FEC) and for coproculture. Adequacy of infection was confirmed at all three study sites, with Day 14 geometric mean (GM) FECs for saline-treated cattle ranging from 32.5 eggs per gram (EPG) to 623.7 EPG. FECs for FDCI-treated cattle were significantly reduced compared to saline-treated cattle (p ≤ 0.0001) on Day 14, with GM-based efficacy ≥ 99.7% at all three study sites. In contrast, ivermectin was 97.4% effective against cattle GINs in Study 1 but was only 47.2% and 39.8% effective at study site 2 and 3, respectively. Genus-specific efficacies suggest the presence of ivermectin-resistant Cooperia spp. (Study 1), Haemonchus spp. (Study 2) and Ostertagia spp. (Study 3) populations in the naturally infected cattle used in these studies. The post-treatment FEC and genus-specific efficacy estimations indicate the doramectin + levamisole HCl FDCI was highly efficacious against cattle GINs even in the face of ivermectin LOE at study sites 2 and 3. The efficacy of the new FDCI against both ML-susceptible and ML-resistant economically important cattle GINs in Australia affirms it is a valuable treatment option for producers operating in an environment of ML loss of efficacy.

Identification of potential new COVID-19 treatments via RWD-driven drug repurposing

By utilizing Optum Life Sciences Claims Data, we constructed Real World Data (RWD) cohorts comprising over 3 million patients and simulated a clinical trial observational study design to evaluate over 200 FDA-approved drugs with COVID-19 repurposing potential, and identified a dozen candidates exhibiting significant reduction in the odds of severe COVID-19 outcomes such as death, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, hospitalization and pneumonia. Notably, certain drug combinations demonstrated effects comparable to those of COVID-19 vaccines. Furthermore, our study revealed a novel finding: a quantitative linear relationship between COVID-19 outcomes and overall patient health risks. This discovery enabled a more precise estimation of drug efficacy using the risk adjustment. The top performing drugs identified include emtricitabine, tenofovir, folic acid, progesterone, estradiol, epinephrine, disulfiram, nitazoxanide and some drug combinations including aspirin-celecoxib.

Feasibility of using remotely delivered Spring Forest Qigong to reduce neuropathic pain in adults with spinal cord injury: a pilot study.

Introduction: Approximately 69% of 299,000 Americans with spinal cord injury (SCI) suffer debilitating chronic neuropathic pain, which is intractable to treatment. The aim of this study is to determine feasibility, as the primary objective, and estimates of efficacy of a remotely delivered Qigong intervention in adults with SCI-related neuropathic pain, as the secondary objective. Methods: We recruited adults with SCI-related neuropathic pain, with SCI ≥3months, with complete or incomplete SCI, and highest neuropathic pain level of >3 on the Numeric Pain Rating Scale (NPRS), using nationwide volunteer sampling. Using a non-randomized controlled trial design, participants practiced Spring Forest Qigong's "Five Element Qigong Healing Movements" (online video) by combining movement to the best of their ability with kinesthetic imagery, at least 3x/week for 12weeks. Adherence was automatically tracked through the Spring Forest Qigong website. Outcomes of neuropathic pain intensity (NPRS) were assessed weekly, and SCI-related symptoms were assessed at baseline, 6, and 12weeks of Qigong practice and at 6-week and 1-year follow-ups. Results: We recruited 23 adults with chronic SCI (7/2021-2/2023). In total, 18 participants started the study and completed all study components, including the 6-week follow-up. Twelve participants completed the 1-year follow-up assessment. Feasibility was demonstrated through participants' willingness to participate, adherence, and acceptability of the study. Mean age of the 18 participants was 60 ± 12years, and they were 15 ± 11years post-SCI with the highest baseline neuropathic pain of 7.94 ± 2.33, which was reduced to 4.17 ± 3.07 after 12weeks of Qigong practice (Cohen's d = 1.75). This pain relief remained at 6-week and 1-year follow-ups. Participants reported reduced spasm frequency (change score 1.17 ± 1.20, d = 0.98) and severity (0.72 ± 1.02, d = 0.71), reduced interference of neuropathic pain on mood (3.44 ± 2.53, d = 1.36), sleep (3.39 ± 2.40, d = 1.41), daily activities (3.17 ± 2.77, d = 1.14), greater ability to perform functional activities (6.68 ± 3.07, d = 2.18), and improved mood (2.33 ± 3.31, d = 0.70) after Qigong. Discussion: Remote Spring Forest Qigong's "Five Element Qigong Healing Movements" practice is feasible in adults with SCI-related neuropathic pain, with promising prolonged results of neuropathic pain relief and improvement in SCI-related symptoms after Qigong practice. Clinical trial registration: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04917107, identifier NCT04917107.

Efficacy of the spatial repellent product Mosquito Shield™ against wild pyrethroid-resistant Anopheles arabiensis in south-eastern Tanzania

BackgroundSpatial repellents that create airborne concentrations of an active ingredient (AI) within a space offer a scalable solution to further reduce transmission of malaria, by disrupting mosquito behaviours in ways that ultimately lead to reduced human-vector contact. Passive emanator spatial repellents can protect multiple people within the treated space and can last for multiple weeks without the need for daily user touchpoints, making them less intrusive interventions. They may be particularly advantageous in certain use cases where implementation of core tools may be constrained, such as in humanitarian emergencies and among mobile at-risk populations. The purpose of this study was to assess the efficacy of Mosquito Shield™ deployed in experimental huts against wild, free-flying, pyrethroid-resistant Anopheles arabiensis mosquitoes in Tanzania over 1 month.MethodsThe efficacy of Mosquito Shield™ transfluthrin spatial repellent in reducing mosquito lands and blood-feeding was evaluated using 24 huts: sixteen huts were allocated to Human Landing Catch (HLC) collections and eight huts to estimating blood-feeding. In both experiments, half of the huts received no intervention (control) while the remaining received the intervention randomly allocated to huts and remained fixed for the study duration. Outcomes measured were mosquito landings, blood-fed, resting and dead mosquitoes. Data were analysed by multilevel mixed effects regression with appropriate dispersion and link function accounting for volunteer, hut and day.ResultsLanding inhibition was estimated to be 70% (57–78%) [IRR 0.30 (95% CI 0.22–0.43); p < 0.0001] and blood-feeding inhibition was estimated to be 69% (56–79%) [IRR 0.31 (95% CI 0.21–0.44; p < 0.0001] There was no difference in the protective efficacy estimates of landing and blood-feeding inhibition [IRR 0.98 (95% CI 0.53–1.82; p = 0.958].ConclusionsThis study demonstrated that Mosquito Shield™ was efficacious against a wild pyrethroid-resistant strain of An. arabiensis mosquitoes in Tanzania for up to 1 month and could be used as a complementary or stand-alone tool where gaps in protection offered by core malaria vector control tools exist. HLC is a suitable technique for estimating bite reductions conferred by spatial repellents especially where direct blood-feeding measurements are not practical or are ethically limited.

Efficacy Evaluation of Combination Therapy in Patients with Generalized Periodontitis According to the Index Estimation of Periodontal Status: Experimental Randomized Single-Arm Study

Background. Treatment and prevention of inflammatory periodontal diseases represent a serious general medical and social problem, which remains relevant due to the significant prevalence of periodontitis among the population, as well as the associated loss of teeth and the negative impact of periodontal foci of infection on the body as a whole. Chronic generalized periodontitis is difficult to treat: it is only possible to achieve periods of remission. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical importance to develop further ways to improve methods for treating inflammatory-dystrophic damage of periodontal tissues in chronic generalized periodontitis.Objective. To perform an index estimation of treatment efficacy in patients with moderately severe chronic generalized periodontitis.Methods. An experimental randomized single-arm study was conducted examining 204 patients diagnosed with moderately severe chronic generalized periodontitis. Patient examination and data analysis were carried out at the Dentistry Department of the Stavropol State Medical University and the Department for General Practice Dentistry of the Kuban State Medical University in 2021–2022. The study included patients aged 35 to 65 years diagnosed with moderately severe chronic generalized periodontitis. Patients with somatic diseases in the decompensation stage were not eligible for the study. The patients were randomly divided into three groups (closed-envelope method). Group 1 was treated using conventional methods. As well as conventional therapy, Group 2 was prescribed vitamin D (Aquadetrim® at a dose of 5000 IU once per day while monitoring vitamin D blood level). The third group of patients was prescribed conventional therapy along with the developed pharmacotherapy, which included vitamin D (Aquadetrim® at a dose of 5000 IU once per day), vitamin A (3.44% oil solution of retinol acetate at a dose of 50 000 IU, 15 min after a morning meal), and 2-ethyl-6-methyl-3-hydroxypyridine (Mexidol® at a dose of 125 mg twice a day). In each patient, the treatment efficacy was analyzed in adjacent oral cavity segments (split-mouth design) according to clinical pocket depth, attachment loss, and bleeding on probing. Also, the authors used the X-ray index to assess the condition of osseous structures and the simplified oral hygiene index. The specified indices were estimated prior to treatment and at one and 12 months following treatment. The statistical analysis of study results was performed using Excel Microsoft Office 2016 (Microsoft, USA).Results. The obtained data indicate that the immediate clinical outcomes (after one month) of combination therapy in patients from all three groups were approximately the same. However, the efficacy of treatment measures in the long-term period (12 months) was different, as evidenced by the dynamics of index values. Only in Group 3 patients, the full implementation of pharmacotherapeutic measures as part of the combination therapy of periodontitis ensured a stable therapeutic effect throughout the entire period of observation.Conclusion. The data obtained 12 months following treatment indicate that the additional prescription of the developed pharmacotherapy contributed to prompt inflammation relief in periodontal tissues, providing a stable treatment outcome and long-term remission.

Potential impact of doxycycline post-exposure prophylaxis prescribing strategies on incidence of bacterial sexually transmitted infections.

Doxycycline post-exposure prophylaxis (doxyPEP) reduces bacterial sexually transmitted infection (STI) incidence in people with HIV (PWH) or using HIV preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP). Given concerns about widespread antibiotic use, we identified doxyPEP prescribing strategies to minimize use while maximizing impact on STIs. We used electronic health records of gay and bisexual men (GBM), transgender women, and non-binary people assigned male sex at birth with ≥2 STI tests (chlamydia, gonorrhea, syphilis) at an LGBTQ-focused health center during 2015-2020. We defined 10 hypothetical doxyPEP prescribing strategies based on PrEP use, HIV status, or STI history. We estimated doxyPEP use and STI diagnoses averted in counterfactual scenarios in which people meeting prescribing criteria received doxyPEP, assuming STI rates during use would have been reduced by clinical trial efficacy estimates. Among 10,546 individuals (94% GBM), rate of any STI was 35.9/100 person-years. Prescribing doxyPEP to all individuals would have averted 71% of STI diagnoses (number needed to treat for one year to avert one STI diagnosis, NNT = 3.9); prescribing to PrEP users/PWH (52%/12% of individuals) would have averted 60% of STI diagnoses (NNT = 2.9). Prescribing doxyPEP for 12 months after STI diagnosis would have reduced the proportion using doxyPEP to 38% and averted 39% of STI diagnoses (NNT = 2.4). Prescribing after concurrent or repeated STIs would have maximized efficiency (lowest NNTs) but prevented fewer STIs. Prescribing doxyPEP to individuals with STIs, particularly concurrent or repeated STIs, could avert a substantial proportion of all STI diagnoses. The most efficient prescribing strategies are based on STI history rather than HIV status or PrEP use.

Meta-analysis of preclinical measures of efficacy in immune checkpoint blockade therapies and comparison to clinical efficacy estimates

BackgroundDespite the successes of checkpoint inhibitors targeting T-cell receptors, clinical efficacy is highly cancer-dependent and subject to high inter-individual variability in treatment outcome. The ability to predict the clinical success in different cancer indications is therefore an important capability for successful clinical development. In this meta-analysis, the main goal was to identify factors that modified the clinical efficacy estimates of checkpoint blockade therapies derived from preclinical animal data to improve the robustness and reliability of such estimates.MethodsTo this end, animal studies testing checkpoint inhibitors (anti-PD-1, anti-PD-L1, anti-CTLA-4) were identified in PubMed ranging from 1.01.2000 to 31.12.2018. The eligibility criteria included the reporting of the Kaplan–Meier estimates of survival and the number of mice used in each experiment. A mixed-effects model was fitted to the preclinical and clinical data separately to determine potential sources of bias and heterogeneity between studies.ResultsA total of 160 preclinical studies comprising 13,811 mice were selected, from which the hazard ratio (HR) and the median survival ratio (MSR) were calculated. Similarly, clinical Phase III studies of checkpoint inhibitors were identified in PubMed and the ClinicalTrials.gov database ranging from 1.01.2010 to 31.12.2020. This resulted in 62 clinical studies representing 43,135 patients subjected to 8 therapies from which overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) hazard ratios were obtained. Using a mixed-effects model, different factors were tested to identify sources of variability between estimates. In the preclinical data, the tumor cell line and individual study were the main factors explaining the heterogeneity. In the clinical setting, the cancer type was influential to the inter-study variability. When using the preclinical estimates to predict clinical estimates, the cancer-type specific estimates of treatment effect using the MSRs better approximated the observed clinical estimates than the HR-derived predictions.ConclusionsThis has strong implications on the design of ICB preclinical studies with respect to sample size determination, selection of cancer cell lines and labs to run the experiments and the choice of efficacy measure.

An age-cohort simulation model for generating COVID-19 scenarios: A study from Ireland's pandemic response

The COVID-19 pandemic presented an immediate need for the Irish Government to establish modelling capacity in order to inform public health decision making. A broad-based interdisciplinary team was created at short notice, drawing together related expertise from the academic and health sectors. This paper documents one of a number of modelling solutions developed by the Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group (IEMAG), which advised the Irish Government on COVID-19 responses during the pandemic. The model inputs included surveillance data, epidemiological data, demographic data, vaccination schedules, vaccine efficacy estimates, estimates of social contacts, and new variant data. Outputs from the model supported policy discussions, including: decisions on the timing of public health restrictions, simulating the effects of school reopening on overall disease transmission, exploring the impact of vaccination across different age cohorts, and generating scenarios on the plausible impact on cases caused by the Omicron variant. An innovative aspect of the solution was the use of a modular design, with three benefits: (1) it enabled a simplification of the disease transmission structure; (2) it provided a practical workflow to coordinate activities; and (3) it speeded up the process of scenario generation and the requirement to provide timely and informative scenario analysis to support Ireland's pandemic response. Given the paper's applied and practical focus, it presents a record of modelling and scenario outputs as they were developed, presented and deployed during the actual outbreak - therefore all simulation results and scenarios are documented “as they happened”, and without the benefit of hindsight.

Clinicians' and Advanced Cancer Patients' Estimates of Treatment Efficacy and Toxicity in Oncologic Treatment.

The purpose of the study was to compare curability expectations between clinicians and patients and examine the influence of sociodemographic and clinical variables on these expectations and satisfaction within the clinician-patient relationship. This prospective study, conducted from February 2020 to May 2023, involved 986 advanced cancer patients. The patients completed questionnaires assessing treatment efficacy and toxicity predictions and the Scale to Assess the Therapeutic Relationship (STAR). Seventy-four percent of advanced cancer patients had an inaccurate perception of treatment curability. Clinicians perceived male patients with lung or digestive cancer without adenocarcinoma at locally advanced stages, with fewer comorbidities and better functional status (ECOG), as having higher curability expectations. Clinicians tended to have more realistic expectations than patients, since they had to consider the presence of treatment's side effects, while patients underestimated the possibility of experiencing these adverse effects. Patients who had more favorable expectations regarding survival and quality of life were found to be more satisfied with the care provided by their oncologists. It is crucial for patients to understand the treatment goals and establish realistic expectations in order to actively participate in decision-making and achieve a better quality of life at the end of life.

Current Insights into the Use of Probiotics and Fatty Acids in Alleviating Depression.

(1) Background: Depression is the most prevalent psychiatric symptom present among individuals of all ages and backgrounds, impacting an estimated 300 million people globally. Therefore, it demands a significant amount of attention when it comes to managing depression. A growing amount of data reveal that probiotics and fatty acids could be beneficial to depression. However, the opposing position maintains that they have no influence on depression. A network meta-analyses of existing datasets aid in the estimation of comparative efficacy as well as in achieving an understanding of the relative merits of different therapies. The purpose of this study was to investigate the current evidence for probiotic or fatty acid depression therapy and to establish a practical alternative for depression patients using a meta-analysis and metagenomic data from a Wistar-Kyoto (WKY) depressed rat model. (2) Methods: Probiotic data were obtained from seven randomized controlled trial studies (n = 394), and fatty acid data were obtained from 24 randomized controlled trial studies (n = 1876). Meanwhile, a metagenomics analysis of data on animal gut flora was also applied to validate the preceding evidence. (3) Results: The fatty acid studies were separated into three sections based on the duration of probiotic delivery: ≤8 weeks, 9-12 weeks, and >12 weeks. The results were as follows: for ≤8 weeks, MD = -1.65 (95% CI: -2.96--0.15), p = 0.01; for 9-12 weeks, MD = -2.22 (95% CI: -3.03--1.22), p < 0.001; for >12 weeks, MD = -1.23 (95% CI: -2.85-0.39), p = 0.14. Regarding the probiotics, the meta-analysis revealed MD = -2.19 (95% CI: -3.38--2.43), p < 0.001. The research presented herein illustrates that probiotics and fatty acids may successfully lower depression scores. Additionally, the probiotics were drastically reduced in the WKY rats. (4) Conclusions: According to the data, a depression intervention utilizing probiotics outperformed the control, implying that the use of probiotics and fatty acids may be a successful strategy for depression treatment.

Evaluation of Computer Vision Systems and Applications to Estimate Trunk Cross-Sectional Area, Flower Cluster Number, Thinning Efficacy and Yield of Apple

Precision crop load management of apple requires counting fruiting structures at various times during the year to guide management decisions. The objective of the current study was to evaluate the accuracy of and compare different commercial computer vision systems and computer applications to estimate trunk cross-sectional area (TCSA), flower cluster number, thinning efficacy, and yield estimation. These studies evaluated two companies that offer different vision systems in a series of trials across 23 orchards in four states. Orchard Robotics uses a proprietary camera system, and Pometa (previously Farm Vision) uses a cell phone camera system. The cultivars used in the trials were ‘NY1’, ‘NY2’, ‘Empire’, ‘Granny Smith’, ‘Gala’, ‘Fuji’, and ‘Honeycrisp’. TCSA and flowering were evaluated with the Orchard Robotics camera in full rows. Flowering, fruit set, and yield estimation were evaluated with Pometa. Both systems were compared with manual measurements. Our results showed a positive linear correlation between the TCSA with the Orchard Robotics vision system and manual measurements, but the vision system underestimated the TCSA in comparison with the manual measurements (R2s between 0.5 and 0.79). Both vision systems showed a positive linear correlation between nubers of flowers and manual counts (R2s between 0.5 and 0.95). Thinning efficacy predictions (in June) were evaluated using the fruit growth rate model, by comparing manual measurements and the MaluSim computer app with the computer vision system of Pometa. Both systems showed accurate predictions when the numbers of fruits at harvest were lower than 200 fruit/tree, but our results suggest that, when the numbers of fruits at harvest were higher than 200 fruit/tree, both methods overestimated final fruit numbers per tree when compared with final fruit numbers at harvest (R2s 0.67 with both systems). Yield estimation was evaluated just before harvest (August) with the Pometa system. Yield estimation was accurate when fruit numbers were fewer than 75 fruit per tree, but, when the numbers of fruit at harvest were higher than 75 fruit per tree, the Pometa vision system underestimated the final yield (R2 = 0.67). Our results concluded that the Pometa system using a smartphone offered advantages such as low cost, quick access, simple operation, and accurate precision. The Orchard Robotics vision system with an advanced camera system provided more detailed and accurate information in terms of geo-referenced information for individual trees. Both vision systems evaluated are still in early development and have the potential to provide important information for orchard managers to improve crop load management decisions.