Estimate Damage Costs Research Articles

Development and Applicability Evaluation of Damage Scale Analysis Techniques for Agricultural Drought

In recent years, the intensity and frequency of droughts have been increasing with the advent of the climate crisis. Agricultural droughts have a significant economic and social impact. Agricultural drought is not only a natural disaster but also leads to food security threats and reduced economic activities, such as decreased productivity. Therefore, it is very important to specify the scale of agricultural drought and quantitatively estimate the economic damage. In this study, we developed an analytical methodology to quantitatively assess the economic damage of agricultural drought and estimated the damage of agricultural drought in 2018 and 2019 for the Republic of Korea. The 2018 agricultural drought was estimated to have caused USD 4.438 million in damage cost and USD 5.180 million in recovery cost. The 2019 drought was less damaging than the previous year, with an estimated damage cost of USD 286,000 and recovery costs of USD 218,000. The results suggest that the economic impact of agricultural drought varies by region depending on the frequency and intensity of the drought and confirm the importance of regional strategies for effective drought management and response. The impacts of agricultural drought go beyond short-term agricultural losses and lead to long-term economic burdens. Therefore, the results of this study are expected to be used as a basis for understanding the impacts of agricultural drought on national economies and for developing policies and strategies to minimize impacts.

Assessing the impact of an arch-dam breach magnitude and reservoir inflow on flood maps

Abstract Different scenarios of an arch-dam breach and their impact on the time-space evolution of flood waves are analysed using numerical modelling. As the accidents involving this type of dam are among the most catastrophic ones, the 108 m in height Paltinu arch-dam, Romania, was chosen as a case study due to its problems in the past. Three dam breach magnitudes and two inflow hydrographs for the worst-case scenario of Normal Operating Pool elevation in the reservoir were chosen as variable parameters, to assess their influence on the dam break wave characteristics and downstream flooded areas. The flood was routed along the 18 km reach of the Doftana River down to the confluence with the Prahova River. A 2D numerical model was set up with the help of HEC-RAS software, which was also used to analyse the resulting hazard maps under a GIS environment. Comparison of inundation boundary, maximum depths and velocities, as well as the arrival time at control sections allow for conclusions to be drawn. These predictive results of shape, magnitude, and time to peak of the flood waves are essential for flood risk management to obtain the risk maps, estimated damage costs, and possible affected areas.

Dam failure analysis and flood disaster simulation under various scenarios.

The aim of this study is to analyze the effects of a possible dam failure under various scenarios and to generate a flood hazard map for two consecutive dams located in a study area with a dense-residential region and a heavy-traffic highway. Two consecutive dams consist of Elmalı 2, a concrete-buttress dam and Elmalı 1, an earth-fill gravity dam in the upstream and downstream, respectively. Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) was used to develop a dam failure model. Dam failure scenarios were examined regarding three main criteria: the Breach Formation Time (BFT), the Number of Failed Buttresses (NFB) of Elmalı 2, and the Reservoir Volume Ratio (RVR) of Elmalı 1. Accordingly, flood peak depth (Hp), peak flow rate (Qp), peak velocity (vp), and time to reach the peak (tp) are discussed. The results showed that BFT and NFB of Elmalı 2 were highly effective on these values, whereas RVR of Elmalı 1 had no significant effect. Moreover, the total area affected by potential floods was calculated with a comparative areal change analysis using flood inundation and flood hazard maps obtained. Estimated damage costs indicate that in the worst-case scenario, more than 500 buildings will be affected in the region.

Risk evaluation for earth-fill dams due to heavy rains by response surface method

ABSTRACT This paper discusses a risk evaluation for earth-fill dams due to heavy rains. The detailed method employs a flood analysis and land use data to calculate the costs of the inundation damage in the downstream areas of earth-fill dams. The procedure to calculate the damage costs requires a lot of labour. Since a huge number of earth-fill dams exist in Japan, a straightforward method is needed. The response surface method, one of the surrogate models, is proposed in this study to reduce the calculation effort. The optimum response surface is firstly evaluated by cross validation, and then the accuracy is verified by comparing the damage costs obtained by the response surface method with those obtained by the detailed method for the earth-fill dam sites. To calculate the risks, it is necessary to determine the probability of overflow failure due to heavy rains. The risk of breaching is calculated from the product of the probability of overflow failure and the estimated damage costs. The accuracy of the response surface method is assessed by comparing the risk rankings of the dams, which is the priority in dam renovations, between the detailed and the response surface methods.

Economic risk assessment of ammonium nitrate explosions at the Busan Port by determining the building damage using a 3D explosion simulation

Explosion-related disasters are large and difficult to predict; therefore, the magnitude of potential risks must be identified ahead of time. This paper presents a new method for evaluating economic risk based on building damage that can be carried out in advance. The study was conducted using scenario-based hazard analysis, vulnerability analysis, and risk assessment. Using the GIS (Geographic Information System) technique, spatial information of the damage target range was constructed, and the hazard analysis of the explosion accident was analyzed in connection with a three-dimensional explosion simulation. Vulnerability analysis based on impact was performed by reflecting building spatial information (location, material, and height), and economic risks caused by explosions in appropriate scenarios were confirmed by applying a new methodology that reflects the total area and building cost of 4708 building objects with an explosion radius of 3 km. The results revealed that the estimated damage costs of 44,616,934,076 won (∼3.60000 US dollars) and 584,230,849,444 won (∼476 million US dollars), respectively, provided the basis for policy decision-making for accident prevention. Using this study, the risk of explosion can be predicted in advance, and effective support for explosive storage buildings in terms of engineering, policy, and management is possible to minimize damage.

Building a synthesis of economic costs of biological invasions in New Zealand.

Biological invasions are a major component of anthropogenic environmental change, incurring substantial economic costs across all sectors of society and ecosystems. There have been recent syntheses of costs for a number of countries using the newly compiled InvaCost database, but New Zealand—a country renowned for its approach to invasive species management—has so far not been examined. Here we analyse reported economic damage and management costs incurred by biological invasions in New Zealand from 1968 to 2020. In total, US$69 billion (NZ$97 billion) is currently reported over this ∼50-year period, with approximately US$9 billion of this considered highly reliable, observed (c.f. projected) costs. Most (82%) of these observed economic costs are associated with damage, with comparatively little invested in management (18%). Reported costs are increasing over time, with damage averaging US$120 million per year and exceeding management expenditure in all decades. Where specified, most reported costs are from terrestrial plants and animals, with damages principally borne by primary industries such as agriculture and forestry. Management costs are more often associated with interventions by authorities and stakeholders. Relative to other countries present in the InvaCost database, New Zealand was found to spend considerably more than expected from its Gross Domestic Product on pre- and post-invasion management costs. However, some known ecologically (c.f. economically) impactful invasive species are notably absent from estimated damage costs, and management costs are not reported for a number of game animals and agricultural pathogens. Given these gaps for known and potentially damaging invaders, we urge improved cost reporting at the national scale, including improving public accessibility through increased access and digitisation of records, particularly in overlooked socioeconomic sectors and habitats. This also further highlights the importance of investment in management to curtail future damages across all sectors.

Smart urban mobility for mitigating carbon emissions, reducing health impacts and avoiding environmental damage costs

Significant global investments are being made into smart urban mobility technologies but there is limited evidence of the potential co-benefits for reducing carbon emissions, environmental pollutants and human health impacts at scale and over the long-term. We use conservative estimates of vehicle electrification and grid decarbonisation to focus specifically on information and communication technology (ICT) interventions. In doing so, we develop a smart mobility framework focusing on more efficient road networks and driving behaviour enabled by rapid ICT deployment. Our scenarios suggest that a combination of ambitious policy measures aimed at smoothing traffic speeds as well as improving driver behaviour in urban areas could reduce carbon emissions for cars ∼29% saving ∼7 MtCO2 and for vans ∼33% saving ∼3 MtCO2 by 2050. Potential reductions in nitrogen oxides and particulate matter 2.5 for cars are ∼22% and vans ∼10% and ∼16% respectively. We use human toxicological classification of air pollution (HCA) to assess the potential damage on human health and our scenarios suggest an upper range of ∼23% and ∼30% reductions in HCA by 2050 for cars and vans respectively. Using conservative cost values, we estimate damage costs could be avoided from car emissions range from ∼£42–£130 million and vans ∼£89–£163 million per year. However, our baseline projections indicate that emissions and damage costs avoided from passenger cars could be partially offset by growing demand for urban van delivery and freight services that are currently outpacing improved fuel and emissions performance of the vehicle stock. This may reflect broader lifestyle and consumer trends towards on-line shopping, food and delivery services, which warrants further investigation.

Modelling Freight Transportation Impacts of the Gulf Cooperation Council Region using GIS

Freight transportation is a key element in economic growth and the development of countries. Linking freight lines between Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries (specifically Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates and Oman) will increase revenues, improve infrastructure asset efficiency and generate employment. Shipping and transport industries endure continuous changes and transformations in response to technological developments and changes in world trade. Significant amounts of documentation, research papers as well as technical and economic reports are available in literature that details ways in which these industries respond to and meet the needs of shippers and consumers. Information and data are valuable assets in providing a basic understanding and base knowledge of the different types and methods of shipping options, as well as the impacts of different transportation modes. In this paper, possible environmental impacts will be discussed, including air quality, noise levels and vibration. In addition, safety factors such as fatalities and accidents will be incorporated into discussions on mode selection. A GIS model was implemented and a case study was created to assess these impacts, estimate damage costs as well as discuss concerns with logistics and mode selection. Finally, possible mitigation measures to manage environmental and safety concerns will be proposed. Based on the analysis and results, more work on environmentally sustainable models and designs need to be implemented to mitigate impacts and to ensure that the environment and quality of life can be preserved. Incentivizing shifts from truck to rail or to intermodal systems is key for shippers’ participation in reducing environmental and societal impacts. Encouraging shippers to change their mode selection can relieve congestion and lower accident rates.

Quantifying and valuing carbon flows and stores in coastal and shelf ecosystems in the UK

Evidence shows that habitats with potential to mitigate against greenhouse gases emissions, by taking up and storing CO2, are being lost due to the effects of on-going human activities and climate change. The carbon storage by terrestrial habitats (e.g. tropical forests) and the role of coastal habitats (‘Blue Carbon’) as carbon storage sinks is well recognised.Offshore shelf sediments are also a manageable carbon store, covering ∼9% of global marine area, but not currently protected by international agreements to enable their conservation. Through a scenario analysis, we explore the economic value of the damage of human activities and climate change can inflict on UK marine habitats, including shelf sea sediments.In a scenario of increased human and climate pressures over a 25-year period, we estimate damage costs up to US$12.5 billion from carbon release linked to disturbance of coastal and shelf sea sediment carbon stores.It may be possible to manage socio-economic pressure to maintain sedimentary carbon storage, but the trade-offs with other global social welfare benefits such as food security will have to be taken into account. To develop effective incentive mechanisms to preserve these valuable coastal and marine ecosystems within a sustainability governance framework, robust evidence is required.

A Study on Estimation Equation for Damage and Recovery Costs Considering Human Losses Focused on Natural Disasters in the Republic of Korea

In this study, we conduct an estimation study of the damage costs, recovery costs, and human losses in the case of natural disasters in the Republic of Korea. This research method analyzed human losses, damage costs, and recovery costs caused by natural disasters that swept across the Republic of Korea over the past 16 years, from 2000 to 2015, including extreme wind, heavy snowfall, typhoon, wind wave, and heavy rainfall. Damage status and trend of occurrence were reviewed for each year’s human losses, damage costs, and recovery costs. We propose a calculating equation of the linear regression equation that estimates damage costs and recovery costs considering human losses. The correlation coefficient was 0.898 for the estimation of human losses and damage costs, and 0.889 for the estimation of human losses and recovery costs. In addition, the correlation of both equations was found to be 166% of damage costs when calculating recovery costs. The results of this study can be used as descriptive statistical data to estimate damage costs and recovery costs according to human losses in case of natural disasters.

Decoupling story-cost dependencies based on a proposed modal approach

Dependency between component damage costs have been rarely taken in to account in some conducted researches only considering two partial distinct states of independent or perfectly dependent for component damage states; however, there is no available procedure to take account of loss dependencies in story level. This paper attempts to present a novel method called ‘modal cost superposition method’ for decoupling story damage costs subjected to earthquake ground motions dealt with closed form differential equations between damage cost and engineering demand parameters which should be solved by the means of new introduced matrixes. Costs are treated as probabilistic variables with definite statistic factors of median and standard deviation amounts and a presumed probability distribution. To display straightforwardness of application of the proposed method, one benchmark study has been conducted. Acceptable compatibility has been proven for the estimated damage costs evaluated by the new proposed modal and also frequently used stochastic approaches for entire building. Also, more dependency contribution in occurrence probability of loss could be concluded regarding to more compatibility of loss results in higher stories than the lower ones and gets away from time consuming calculations including some limited number of cost modes in high mode situation.

Economics of Harmful Invasive Species: A Review

The purpose of this study is to review theoretical and empirical findings in economics with respect to the challenging question of how to manage invasive species. The review revealed a relatively large body of literature on the assessment of damage costs of invasive species; single species and groups of species at different geographical scales. However, the estimated damage costs show large variation, from less than 1 million USD to costs corresponding to 12% of gross domestic product, depending on the methods employed, geographical scale, and scope with respect to inclusion of different species. Decisions regarding optimal management strategies, when to act in the invasion chain and which policy to choose, have received much less attention in earlier years, but have been subject to increasing research during the last decade. More difficult, but also more relevant policy issues have been raised, which concern the targeting in time and space of strategies under conditions of uncertainty. In particular, the weighting of costs and benefits from early detection and mitigation against the uncertain avoidance of damage with later control, when the precision in targeting species is typically greater is identified as a key challenge. The role of improved monitoring for detecting species and their spread and damage has been emphasized, but questions remain on how to achieve this in practice. This is in contrast to the relatively large body of literature on policies for mitigating dispersal by trade, which is regarded as one of the most important vectors for the spread of invasive species. On the other hand, the literature on how to mitigate established species, by control or adaptation, is much more scant. Studies evaluating causes for success or failure of policies against invasive in practice are in principal non-existing.

Externalities of Fugitive Dust

It is known that fugitive dust can cause human health and environmental problems, alone or in combination with other air pollutants. These problems are referred to as 'external costs' that have been traditionally ignored. However, there is a growing interest towards quantifying externalities to assist policy and decision-making. With this in mind, the present study aimed at discussing the environmental regulations that deal with fugitive dust, the impact of fugitive dust on human health and global climate system, and the available methods for calculating fugitive dust externalities. The damage cost associated with human health and global environmental problems was predicted based on the environmental strategy priority model. The damage cost estimated by the model ranged from 40 to 374 EUR/kg of emitted fugitive dust with a mean value of 120 EUR/kg of emitted fugitive dust. It was also found that PM(2.5) and PM(10) have contributed to about 60% and 36% of the estimated damage cost, respectively. The remaining 4% was attributed to both nitrate and sulfate aerosols.

Renewable Energy from Willow Biomass Crops: Life Cycle Energy, Environmental and Economic Performance

Short-rotation woody crops (SRWC) along with other woody biomass feedstocks will play a significant role in a more secure and sustainable energy future for the United States and around the world. In temperate regions, shrub willows are being developed as a SRWC because of their potential for high biomass production in short time periods, ease of vegetative propagation, broad genetic base, and ability to resprout after multiple harvests. Understanding and working with willow's biology is important for the agricultural and economic success of the system. The energy, environmental, and economic performance of willow biomass production and conversion to electricity is evaluated using life cycle modeling methods. The net energy ratio (electricity generated/life cycle fossil fuel consumed) for willow ranges from 10 to 13 for direct firing and gasification processes. Reductions of 70 to 98 percent (compared to U.S. grid generated electricity) in greenhouse gas emissions as well as NOx, SO2, and particulate emissions are achieved. Despite willow's multiple environmental and rural development benefits, its high cost of production has limited deployment. Costs will be lowered by significant improvements in yields and production efficiency and by valuing the system's environmental and rural development benefits. Policies like the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), federal biomass tax credits and renewable portfolio standards will make willow cost competitive in the near term. The avoided air pollution from the substitution of willow for conventional fossil fuel generated electricity has an estimated damage cost of $0.02 to $0.06 kWh−1. The land intensity of about 4.9 × 10−5 ha-yr/kWh is greater than other renewable energy sources. This may be considered the most significant limitation of willow, but unlike other biomass crops such as corn it can be cultivated on the millions of hectares of marginal agricultural lands, improving site conditions, soil quality and landscape diversity. A clear advantage of willow biomass compared to other renewables is that it is a stock resource whereas wind and PV are intermittent. With only 6 percent of the current U.S. energy consumption met by renewable sources the accelerated development of willow biomass and other renewable energy sources is critical to address concerns of energy security and environmental impacts associated with fossil fuels.

The Prophetic Urge to Warn People about Dangers That We Know Exist

I, like most scientists who possess insights about the causes of earthquake disasters, have an urgent desire to share hazard and risk insights with people who are potentially in harm's way and with public officials who could implement policies that would reduce vulnerability. I believe that scientists with such understanding have an ethical responsibility to raise awareness in their communities and to provide insights that contribute to reduction of future losses. The importance of such efforts grows every year as expanding populations occupy larger areas in earthquake-prone regions. This discussion explores how we can improve our communications to the policy makers and public and suggests developing an information exchange about how we can accomplish this. I believe that scientists with [understanding about the causes of earthquake disasters] have an ethical responsibility to raise awareness in their communities and to provide insights that contribute to reduction of future losses. New multidisciplinary technological developments such as FEMA's publicly available consensus-based loss-estimation model, HAZUS, enable us to quantify future earthquake losses regionally in order to assist policy makers and the public to appreciate the extent of their exposure. The HAZUS model employs both earthquake hazard and structural fragility terms to calculate damage ratios and estimate damage costs. As a result, we can more quantitatively estimate risk and present this information to the public. In this discussion, risk is the product of multiplying the consequences of damaging events expressed in dimensions of impact, such as damage costs and secondary economic effects, by the probability of the events occurring during a specified time period. As Earth scientists we no longer need be constrained to only characterizing the hazards in our policy dialogues. We also should collaborate with engineers to make these estimates of future losses as robust as possible. Most importantly, we don't have to …

A GIS based coastal management system for climate change associated flood risk assessment on the east coast of England

To assess the implications of sea level rise along the English east coast, the Arc-Info GIS package was used to determine coastal vulnerability to flooding. Results from oceanographic and climatic research were combined with data on sea defences, elevation values, and patterns of landuse. A risk assessment model was developed to estimate flood return periods according to different climate change scenarios for the years 2050 and 2100. Flood risks were modelled as a function of the height and condition of sea defences, land elevations, and subsidence rates. The ‘house equivalent’ concept was used to estimate damage costs of flood events in a future climate-changed environment. For the year 2100 the model predicts significant increases in flood damage costs. However, the results indicate the considerable uncertainty associated with sea level rise predictions. Our findings may potentially be of both academic and practical interest, but will be of little practical significance to coastal managers and planners if they cannot use them. To illustrate how this might be facilitated, their incorporation into an easy to use prototype Decision Support System (DSS) is outlined. The development of such systems is possibly the next major challenge for the application of GIS technologies to the coastal zone.

Multicriteria analysis vs. externalities assessment for the comparative evaluation of electricity generation systems

Attributing costs to the environmental impacts of energy production and use could greatly assist in environmental planning because monetary values are capable of directly influencing energy decisions without changing the rules of the market. Despite the considerable progress made recently in the valuation of environmental externalities there is still an open debate about the reliability of the estimated damage costs. This paper is aimed at comparing the external costs calculated for a number of power plants using different energy sources with the outcome of a multicriteria analysis where environmental impacts are expressed in physical terms or on a qualitative scale. Similarities and disparities in the obtained rankings are identified and clarified on the basis of the fundamental principles of the two approaches. It is concluded that, although external costs do not accurately reflect the traditional value system of individual decision makers, they give suitable price signals and thus help in eliminating distortions of the current energy market.