Smart urban mobility for mitigating carbon emissions, reducing health impacts and avoiding environmental damage costs

Abstract

Significant global investments are being made into smart urban mobility technologies but there is limited evidence of the potential co-benefits for reducing carbon emissions, environmental pollutants and human health impacts at scale and over the long-term. We use conservative estimates of vehicle electrification and grid decarbonisation to focus specifically on information and communication technology (ICT) interventions. In doing so, we develop a smart mobility framework focusing on more efficient road networks and driving behaviour enabled by rapid ICT deployment. Our scenarios suggest that a combination of ambitious policy measures aimed at smoothing traffic speeds as well as improving driver behaviour in urban areas could reduce carbon emissions for cars ∼29% saving ∼7 MtCO2 and for vans ∼33% saving ∼3 MtCO2 by 2050. Potential reductions in nitrogen oxides and particulate matter 2.5 for cars are ∼22% and vans ∼10% and ∼16% respectively. We use human toxicological classification of air pollution (HCA) to assess the potential damage on human health and our scenarios suggest an upper range of ∼23% and ∼30% reductions in HCA by 2050 for cars and vans respectively. Using conservative cost values, we estimate damage costs could be avoided from car emissions range from ∼£42–£130 million and vans ∼£89–£163 million per year. However, our baseline projections indicate that emissions and damage costs avoided from passenger cars could be partially offset by growing demand for urban van delivery and freight services that are currently outpacing improved fuel and emissions performance of the vehicle stock. This may reflect broader lifestyle and consumer trends towards on-line shopping, food and delivery services, which warrants further investigation.