Wind Speed Estimation Research Articles

Validating CYGNSS Wind Speeds with Surface-Based Observations and Triple Collocation Analysis

Existing validation of mean wind speed estimates via reflectometry from global navigation systems of satellites (GNSS-R)—has been largely limited in spatial coverage to equatorial buoys or tropical cyclone events near continental United States. Two alternative validation techniques are presented for the Cyclone GNSS (CYGNSS) mission using surface-based observations along coasts and coral reefs instead of buoys, and triple collocation analysis (TCA) instead of a 1:1 gridded comparison for tropical cyclone (TC) events. For the surface-based analysis, Fully Developed Seas (FDS) v3.2 and NOAA v1.2 were compared to anemometer data provided by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology across the Australia and Pacific regions. Overall, the products performed similarly to previous studies with NOAA having higher correlations and lower errors than FDS, though FDS performed better than NOAA over the Australian dataset for high wind speed events. TCA was used to validate NOAA v1.2 and Merged v3.2 datasets with other satellite remotely sensed products from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR). Both additive and multiplicative error models for TCA were applied. The performance overall was similar between the two products, with NOAA producing higher errors. NOAA performed better than Merged for mean winds above 17 m/s as the large temporal averaging reduced sensitivity to high winds. For SMAP winds above 17 m/s, NOAA’s average bias (−2.1 m/s) was significantly smaller than the average bias in Merged (−4.4 m/s). Future ideas for rapid intensification detection and constellation design are discussed.

Deep learning approaches for bias correction in WRF model outputs for enhanced solar and wind energy estimation: A case study in East and West Malaysia

Accurate estimation of wind and solar energy potentials is crucial for successfully integrating renewable energy into power grids. Traditional numerical weather prediction models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, often suffer from biases that lead to inaccurate energy forecasts. This study employs advanced deep learning (DL) techniques to correct these biases in WRF model outputs, specifically to enhance wind and solar energy estimations in East and West Malaysia. Unlike previous studies, this research integrates a diverse array of DL models: Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), and Feedforward Neural Networks (FNN), to address both temporal and spatial prediction challenges. The models were trained and tested using historical weather data and ground-based measurements to improve the accuracy of wind speed and solar radiation predictions. Evaluation metrics, root mean square error (RMSE), mean bias error (MBE), and mean absolute error (MAE), demonstrate the better performance of CNN and FNN models over the sole WRF approach. The findings reveal that CNN achieved the lowest RMSE in wind speed estimation (0.91 in CEMACS and 0.97 in Kuching compared to WRF RMSEs of 1.92 and 1.39). At the same time, FNN significantly improved solar radiation prediction (RMSE of 86.86 in Kuching and 99.23 in CEMACS compared to WRF RMSEs of 154.44 and 370.66). Given the low wind speeds, the corrected data from CNN was used to estimate wind energy at 536 kWh at Kuching and 0 kWh at CEMACS. FNN-corrected data was also used to estimate solar energy at 19 kWh and 18 kWh at Kuching and CEMACS, respectively. This research not only shows the effectiveness of DL in mitigating biases in numerical weather prediction models but also contributes a novel methodology for reliable renewable energy assessments.

Profit enhancement and imbalance cost reduction with solar PV-fuel cell-EV hybrid system in a wind-integrated day-ahead power market

Abstract In a wind-integrated deregulated network, the wind farm must intimate the power-generating capacity bids to the market controller at least one day before it begins operations. The wind farm's bid submissions are based on the estimated wind speed (EWS); nevertheless, slight differences between the real wind speed (RWS) and the EWS will result in penalties or incentives imposed by the Independent System Operator (ISO). This occurrence is known as the power market imbalance cost, and it has a direct influence on the system's profitability. To mitigate this effect, solar PV and fuel cell storage technologies are used with the wind farm to enhance system profit by offsetting the negative effects of the imbalance cost. Here, solar PV and fuel cells are used to function in the required time i.e. operate in the charging mode when the RWS is greater than the EWS and in discharging mode when the EWS is greater than the RWS to balance the power supply in the grid as to fulfill the power bidding conditions. Furthermore, the study focuses on minimizing potential system risks, which have been assessed using several risk assessment tools such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Cumulative Value-at-Risk (CVaR). The work was conducted using an IEEE 14 bus test system. Initially, the solar PV-fuel cell system supplies power to meet local needs, and the remaining energy is sent to the grid to maximize the system's profit. Electric vehicles (EVs) have also been incorporated to maximize the system economy in more quantities and to reduce the system risk further as compared to the solar PV-fuel cell operation. Three different optimization methods, i.e. AGTO (Artificial Gorilla Troops Optimizer Algorithm), ABC (Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm), and SQP (Sequential Quadratic Programming), were used in a comparative analysis to assess the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Regionalized ensemble estimation of wave periods for assessing wave energy resources across Canada. Part I: Improved wave-period modelling methodology

Large-scale estimations of wave periods are desired for wave energy assessment, ocean engineering, and wave climate research. Long-term global wave data from satellite altimeters are routinely applied to the estimations. However, this is challenged by uncertainties in wave-period models (WPMs), inaccuracies in data, and simplifications in modeling. Additionally, there exists a gap in the comprehensive examination of the variational mechanisms governing wave periods or model performances. As an effort to address them, we innovate a macroscale regionalized ensemble wave-period modeling (MREWPM) method by optimizing four wave-period models, driven by enhanced altimeter-based REWS (regionalized ensemble wave simulation) estimates of wave heights and wind speeds, within a regionalization framework in macroscale water environments. Results show that MREWPM driven by REWS dataset outperforms existing methods and performs better at larger scales (e.g., in eliminating local-scale overestimation). WPMs are more accurate over remote, deep, and windy regions in cool seasons under metrics-, scale- and data-dependent variations of performances with driving factors (mainly geographical features). This study serves as a foundational contribution towards the enhancement of wave-period simulations, the advancement of understanding wave-period dynamics, and the scientific evaluation of wave energy at macroscales.

Regional frequency analysis of extreme wind in Pakistan using robust estimation methods

The quantile estimates of extreme wind speed are needed for various areas of interest using regional frequency analysis (RFA) and extreme value theory. These calculations are crucial for the coding of wind speed. The data was taken from the NASA official website at a 10-meter distance and measured in meters per second (m/s). RFA of annual maximum wind speed (AMWS) using L-moments is performed utilizing annual maximum wind speed data from sixteen sites (16) in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. There are no sites that are found to be discordant. The wards method is used to construct a homogenous region and make two homogenous regions from 16 sites. The heterogeneity test justifies that both clusters are homogeneous. The most appropriate probability distribution from the Generalized Normal (GNO), Generalized Logistic (GLO), Pearson Type-3 (P3), Generalized Pareto (GPA), and Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions is chosen to calculate regional quantiles. According to the L-moments diagram and Z statistics, the GEV for Cluster- Ι and GLO for Cluster- ΙΙ are the best suggestions from the others. Both clusters’ robustness is measured utilizing relative bias (RB) and relative root mean square error (RRMSE). Overall, GEV distribution is fit for cluster-Ι, and the GLO distribution is fit for cluster-ΙΙ. Utilizing the site mean and median as index parameters, we can also find at-site quantiles from regional quantiles. The study’s quantile estimates can be employed in codified structural designs with policy consequences.

Evaluating and comparison of WRF-chem model configurations for wind field impact on the April 2022 dust episode in western Iran

Accurate estimation of wind direction and speed is essential for enhancing the simulation and prediction of dust storms. Being highly susceptible to dust storms, Western Iran necessitates a detailed evaluation of dust concentration and wind fields. This study employs the WRF-Chem model to simulate these parameters over the period from April 7 to 26, 2022. Four different model configurations were tested, involving the Yonsei University (YSU) and Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) boundary layer schemes, as well as the Lin and WRF Single-Moment 6-Class (WSM6) microphysics schemes. The results indicate that during the selected period, different synoptic systems led to the release of dust from Iraq and Saudi Arabia and its transport to western Iran. The mid-level southerly and southwesterly wind directions have a significant impact on dust transport to the northwestern regions of Iran by high and complex mountainous terrain. The horizontal and vertical distribution of simulated dust demonstrates good agreement with TERRA satellite imagery, MERRA-2 dust surface concentration, and CALIPSO, respectively. The daily dust concentration of the WRF-Chem model has a correlation of −0.32 to −0.96 with visibility and 0.68 to 0.86 with MERRA-2 data in Western Iran. The simulated dust concentration relation with visibility and AERONET AOD (Aerosol Optical Depth at 500 nm) was calculated at −0.78 and 0.29, respectively in Zanjan station. The horizontal and vertical distribution, temporal series, and statistical indices of the wind field show that the WRF-Chem model performs well in the Iran West boundary, especially in the west and northwest, where the 10-m wind speed increased to 14 m s−1. The boundary layer scheme in the WRF-Chem model has a more significant impact than the microphysics scheme in simulated 10-m wind speed and dust concentration. The final result shows that the combination of the YSU boundary layer and WSM6 microphysics schemes performs very well in simulating wind fields and dust in western Iran under various weather conditions.

Characterizing surface pressure and wind fields of typhoons approaching Hong Kong

In this paper, 17 severe typhoons that have affected Hong Kong are simulated using an advanced numerical atmospheric simulation system - Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). The simulated surface pressure and wind fields of these typhoons are validated against a wide range of field observations. Then azimuth-dependent models for the radius of maximum winds and the Holland parameter are established statistically at the surface level. It is observed that the shape parameter of the Holland pressure model is smaller at the surface than that at the gradient level. And the Holland wind field model cannot well reproduce the simulated radial wind profiles due to the complexities of nonuniform surface conditions and typhoon dynamics. It is found that the modified Rankine model provides satisfactory estimates of typhoon wind speeds in Hong Kong. Additionally, wind field asymmetries of typhoons approaching Hong Kong are highly correlated with the typhoon track velocity, vertical wind shear and the angle between them. The proposed statistical models and identified characteristics of wind field asymmetries of typhoons will provide useful information for rapidly assessing typhoon wind hazards.

A Novel Method for the Estimation of Sea Surface Wind Speed from SAR Imagery

Wind is one of the important environmental factors influencing marine target detection as it is the source of sea clutter and also affects target motion and drift. The accurate estimation of wind speed is crucial for developing an efficient machine learning (ML) model for target detection. For example, high wind speeds make it more likely to mistakenly detect clutter as a marine target. This paper presents a novel approach for the estimation of sea surface wind speed (SSWS) and direction utilizing satellite imagery through innovative ML algorithms. Unlike existing methods, our proposed technique does not require wind direction information and normalized radar cross-section (NRCS) values and therefore can be used for a wide range of satellite images when the initial calibrated data are not available. In the proposed method, we extract features from co-polarized (HH) and cross-polarized (HV) satellite images and then fuse advanced regression techniques with SSWS estimation. The comparison between the proposed model and three well-known C-band models (CMODs)—CMOD-IFR2, CMOD5N, and CMOD7—further indicates the superior performance of the proposed model. The proposed model achieved the lowest Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE), with values of 0.97 m/s and 0.62 m/s for calibrated images, and 1.37 and 0.97 for uncalibrated images, respectively, on the RCM dataset.

Zynq FPGA for hardware co-simulation of Takagi-Sugeno neuro-fuzzy for MPPT algorithm incorporating sensorless wind speed estimation in grid-connected wind system

This paper presents a hardware implementation on the Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) Zed-Board of a Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT) incorporating pitch angle control system and sensorless wind speed estimation using the Takagi-Sugeno (TS) Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). The described approach is applied specifically to a grid-connected Permanent Magnet Synchronous Generator-based Variable Speed Wind Turbine (VSWT). Firstly, the paper proposes an estimator-based TS-ANFIS model for real-time wind speed estimation, addressing challenges with conventional anemometers, such as precision, and susceptibility to adverse weather conditions. The estimated wind speed guides the calculation of an optimized mechanical speed for MPPT control. Secondly, an MPPT-based TS-ANFIS controller is introduced to achieve the maximum power point, integrating pitch angle control to prevent turbine failures in high wind speeds. Finally, the paper emphasizes the hardware implementation on the FPGA Zed-Board, leveraging its parallel processing capabilities to enhance control system quality by reducing sampling periods and loop delays. Validation includes simulations in Matlab/Simulink using the Xilinx system generator and hardware co-simulation on the FPGA Zed-Board. A comparative analysis highlights the contributions and advancements of the proposed models and controllers compared to recent schemes in the field. Indeed, the proposed MPPT-based TS-ANFIS approach effectively maximizes the power extracted from the VSWT, achieving an estimated average efficiency of 99.84 %. In contrast, PID methods show average efficiencies of 92.63 %. Additionally, compared to other published works, the proposed MPPT-based TS-ANFIS method demonstrates a rapid response time of 0.001 s and lower static error at 0.02 %. Furthermore, the proposed WSE-based TS-ANFIS model exhibits superior performance and effectiveness, yielding a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 0.0085381, a determination coefficient (R2) value of 0.99985, and a Pearson correlation coefficient (r) value of 0.99996. Moreover, the proposed hardware implementation of these approaches maintains lower power usage, operating at a high frequency of 80.38 MHz and achieving a high throughput of 2572.16 Mbps.

Advancements in marine atmospheric parameters measurement: integrated dual-channel LIDAR for temperature, humidity, and wind speed estimation

Advancements in marine atmospheric parameters measurement: integrated dual-channel LIDAR for temperature, humidity, and wind speed estimation

Crop yield prediction with environmental and chemical variables using optimized ensemble predictive model in machine learning

Abstract Enhanced crop yield prediction is necessary for agronomists to make dynamic premonsoon decisions. The input variables precipitation, temperature, evaporation, wind speed, and chemical use influence crop yield estimations. In this study, we analyzed the correlation between crop yield and input features, and scaled up the prediction power of the crop yield model using optimized ensemble learning for machine learning. The proposed model is expected to deal with the limitations of existing models by minimizing effort and data requirements. It achieved better performance than the other approaches with a MSE (Mean Squared Error) of 42963, MAE (Mean Absolute Error) of 87, and R 2 (Coefficient of Determination) of 0.96. The findings of this study have important suggestions for agricultural management and policy-making. The proposed model offers possible applications for enhancing crop yield prediction across various perspectives, thereby assisting more informed decision-making in agriculture.

Comparative examinations of wind speed and energy extrapolation methods using remotely sensed data – A case study from Hungary

Exact knowledge of wind energy potential is a fundamental issue in wind energy utilization. The vertical changes in wind speeds, that is, the wind profile, have a predominant impact on the wind energy available at a location because the kinetic energy of moving air is proportional to the square of the wind speed. Roughness describes the resistance of a 3D surface to moving air. The exponent α of the power law of Hellmann and the roughness length (z0) are two parameters that describe the effects of the roughness of the surface on the wind profile. They can be used for the vertical extrapolation of wind speeds. The exponent α can be determined using multiple height level wind speed measurement data, whereas a reliable technique for the calculation of the roughness length requires detailed knowledge of the 3D geometry of the measurement site. In the present study, the exponent α was calculated based on SODAR wind speed measurements, while (z0) was determined using a combination of GIS and UAS-based aerial survey methods. Wind speeds measured at 50 m were extrapolated for height levels of 80, 90, 100, 110, and 120 m using dynamic power law exponent values. Wind power was determined using the power law (method V1), roughness length (method V2), frequency distribution (method W-RF), and gamma distribution (method W-G), and Windographer software was compared to the values calculated from the empirical (measured) wind speeds. A comparative statistical analysis of the datasets of the power law and roughness length methods on monthly/diurnal, annual/diurnal, and month/direction contexts showed no significant differences at all height levels. Differences can be detected in the distribution of the signs of the differences at heights of 80 and 120 m for the entire dataset. Underestimation was dominant with a significant frequency (over 70 %) in the case of both methods and heights. There were no significant differences between the wind power estimations provided by the different methods, and all the methods involved in the study underestimated the wind speeds and wind energy potential for each height level. Methods V1 and V2 can be used alternatively, depending on the input data available for analysis. The major advantage of method V2 is that it provides the same accuracy as V1, which requires a UAS-based aerial survey at the beginning, but continuous wind measurements must be performed at a lower height only. This means that there is no need for a high measurement tower, which makes the measurements simpler, more cost-effective, and causes much less disturbance to the environment. Another important advantage of the methods presented here is that they use a dynamic approach of power law exponent values that provide a more realistic estimation of wind speed and energy on a diurnal scale.

Comparison of the Wind Speed Estimation Algorithms of Wind Turbines Using a Drive Train Model and Extended Kalman Filter

To compare and validate wind speed estimation algorithms applied to wind turbines, wind speed estimators were designed in this study, based on two methods presented in the literature, and their performance was validated using the NREL 5MW model. The first method for wind speed estimation involves a three-dimensional (3D) look-up table-based approach, constructed using drive train differential equations. The second method involves applying a continuous–discrete extended Kalman filter. To verify and compare the performance of the algorithms designed using these different methods, feed-forward control algorithms, available power estimation algorithms, and a linear quadratic regulator, based on fuzzy logic (LQRF) control algorithms, were selected and applied as verification means, using the estimated wind speed as the input. Based on the simulation results, the performance of the two methods was compared. The method using drive train differential equations demonstrated superior performance in terms of reductions in the standard deviations of rotor speed and electrical power, as well as in its prediction accuracy for the available power.

Short-term prediction of horizontal winds in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere over coastal Peru using a hybrid model

The mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) are transitional regions between the lower and upper atmosphere. The MLT dynamics can be investigated using wind measurements conducted with meteor radars. Predicting MLT winds could help forecast ionospheric parameters, which has many implications for global communications and geo-location applications. Several literature sources have developed and compared predictive models for wind speed estimation. However, in recent years, hybrid models have been developed that significantly improve the accuracy of the estimates. These integrate time series decomposition and machine learning techniques to achieve more accurate short-term predictions. This research evaluates a hybrid model that is capable of making a short-term prediction of the horizontal winds between 80 and 95 km altitudes on the coast of Peru at two locations: Lima (12°S, 77°W) and Piura (5°S, 80°W). The model takes a window of 56 data points as input (corresponding to 7 days) and predicts 16 data points as output (corresponding to 2 days). First, the missing data problem was analyzed using the Expectation Maximization algorithm (EM). Then, variational mode decomposition (VMD) separates the components that dominate the winds. Each resulting component is processed separately in a Long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network whose hyperparameters were optimized using the Optuna tool. Then, the final prediction is the sum of the predicted components. The efficiency of the hybrid model is evaluated at different altitudes using the root mean square error (RMSE) and Spearman’s correlation (r). The hybrid model performed better compared to two other models: the persistence model and the dominant harmonics model. The RMSE ranged from 10.79 to 27.04 m s−1, and the correlation ranged from 0.55 to 0.94. In addition, it is observed that the prediction quality decreases as the prediction time increases. The RMSE at the first step reached 6.04 m s−1 with a correlation of 0.99, while at the sixteenth step, the RMSE increased up to 30.84 m s−1 with a correlation of 0.5.

Control of a 15MW off-shore wind turbine for black-start operation

Grid forming wind turbines are crucial for achieving a 100% renewable based grid. The mechanical control of the wind turbines is usually designed for maximum power tracking operation. This paper includes the development of a wind turbine pitch controller considering the wider operational range of a grid forming wind turbine. The proposed controller tracks the optimal generation characteristic of the wind turbine when grid connected and is designed to cater for the different power levels when the wind turbine is operated in islanded mode (or grid-connected at partial power). The proposed controller does not require wind speed estimation for its operation and shows better performance than standard pitch controllers during grid-forming operation, particularly, limiting wind turbine speed excursion during block de-loading. Moreover, the proposed controller does not increase the mechanical loads of the key wind turbine elements. The performance of the proposed control is validated in a black start procedure with a full wind farm realistic real-time simulator, including detailed electrical and aeroelastic models of the wind turbine generator, wind farm and connecting HVDC link. Time and frequency domain validation using the real-time model has shown the performance of the proposed controller during black start operation.

Hybrid CMOD-Diffusion Algorithm Applied to Sentinel-1 for More Robust and Precise Wind Retrieval

Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery presents significant advantages for observing ocean surface winds owing to its high spatial resolution and low sensitivity to extreme weather conditions. Nevertheless, signal noise poses a challenge, hindering precise wind retrieval from SAR imagery. Moreover, traditional geophysical model functions (GMFs) often falter, particularly in accurately estimating high wind speeds, notably during extreme weather phenomena like tropical cyclones (TCs). To address these limitations, this study proposes a novel hybrid model, CMOD-Diffusion, which integrates the strengths of GMFs with data-driven deep learning methods, thereby achieving enhanced accuracy and robustness in wind retrieval. Based on the coarse estimation of wind speed by the traditional GMF CMOD5.N, we introduce the recently developed data-driven method Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model (DDPM). It transforms an image from one domain to another domain by gradually adding Gaussian noise, thus achieving denoising and image synthesis. By introducing the DDPM, the noise from the observed normalized radar cross-section (NRCS) and the residual of the GMF methods can be largely compensated. Specifically, for wind speeds within the low-to-medium range, a DDPM is employed before proceeding to another CMOD iteration to recalibrate the observed NRCS. Conversely, a posterior-placed DDPM is applied after CMOD to reconstruct high-wind-speed regions or TC-affected areas, with the prior information from regions characterized by low wind speeds and recalibrated NRCS values. The efficacy of the proposed model is evaluated by using Sentinel-1 SAR imagery in vertical–vertical (VV) polarization, collocated with data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Experimental results based on validation sets demonstrate significant improvements over CMOD5.N, particularly in low-to-medium wind speed regions, with the Structural Similarity Index (SSIM) increasing from 0.76 to 0.98 and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) decreasing from 1.98 to 0.63. Across the entire wind field, including regions with high wind speeds, the validation data obtained through the proposed method exhibit an RMSE of 2.39 m/s, with a correlation coefficient of 0.979.

Estimating Wind Speeds in Tornadoes Using Debris Trajectories of Large Compact Objects

Abstract Currently, the enhanced Fujita scale does not consider the wind-induced movement of various large compact objects such as vehicles, construction equipment, and farming equipment/haybales that are often found in postevent damage surveys. One reason for this is that modeling debris in tornadoes comes with considerable uncertainties since there are many parameters to determine, leading to difficulties in using trajectories to analyze wind speeds of tornadoes. This paper aims to develop a forensic tool using analytical tornado models to estimate lofting wind speeds based on trajectories of large compact objects. This is accomplished by implementing a Monte Carlo simulation to randomly select the parameters and plotting cumulative distribution functions showing the likelihood of lofting at each wind speed. After analyzing the debris lofting from several documented tornadoes in Canada, the results indicate that the method provides threshold lofting wind speeds that are similar to the estimated speeds given by other methods. However, the introduction of trajectories produces estimated lofting wind speeds that are higher than the EF-scale rating given from the ground survey assessment based on structural damage. Further studies will be required to better understand these differences.

Comparison of Tornado Damage Characteristics to Low-Altitude WSR-88D Radar Observations and Implications for Tornado Intensity Estimation

Abstract Given the obvious difficulties in directly sampling tornadic wind fields, ongoing work continues to improve estimates of near-ground wind speeds in tornadoes. This study builds upon a recently proposed empirical relationship between radar-observed velocities in the lowest 150 m above ground level (AGL) and the theoretical peak 15-m AGL wind speed. We create and analyze a dataset of 194 velocity observations within tornadoes in the lowest 150 m AGL. These observations are drawn from 105 individual tornadoes that occurred across a diverse range of EF-scale ratings (EF0–4), convective modes (discrete supercell and quasi-linear convective system), geographical regions, and housing unit densities (HUDs). Comparing the radar-estimated and damage-estimated tornado wind speeds, and corresponding EF- and F-scale ratings, is the primary focus of the ensuing analysis. Consistent with recent work, damage-estimated tornado wind speeds tend to be lower than radar-estimated near-surface wind speeds, especially for stronger tornadoes. Damage- and radar-estimated wind speed differences are not strongly related to the availability of damage indicators (as measured by HUD). While some relationship exists—particularly underestimates of peak wind speeds for strong–violent tornadoes in low HUD areas—the tendency of radar-based strong/violent tornado intensity estimates to be meaningfully higher than EF-scale-based damage estimates exists across the HUD spectrum. The legacy F-scale wind speed ranges may ultimately provide a better estimate of peak tornado wind speeds at 10–15 m AGL for strong–violent tornadoes and a better damage-based intensity rating for all tornadoes. These results are contextualized with regard to ongoing community efforts to improve tornado intensity estimation. Significance Statement Due to the numerous difficulties in collecting direct observations of tornado wind speeds, we compare methods that are used to estimate near-ground wind speeds using both radar measurements of wind speeds aloft and damage. Our results show that 1) the damage-estimated intensities of stronger tornadoes are more likely to be underestimates of true wind speeds than weaker tornadoes based on radar observations, 2) this bias is present for tornadoes that occur in more built-up areas as well as more sparsely populated ones, and 3) the legacy Fujita scale may provide better wind speed estimates in stronger tornadoes. These findings contribute to community-wide efforts to improve damage-based estimates of peak tornado wind speeds.

Aggregation of data from multiple recording stations for extreme wind analysis and prediction

Accurate, reliable and robust techniques for the probabilistic estimation of extreme wind speeds are essential for the design of structures for wind loading. Aggregating gust wind data from various stations with similar, homogeneous wind climates into a ‘superstation’ for hazard analysis has been employed since the 1980′s to reduce the effects of sampling errors. A concern that has been raised recently is that prediction biases may arise from such aggregation, when the data exhibit non-homogeneity due to inevitable short data lengths or imperfect homogeneity of the wind climates. By Monte Carlo simulation, we show that superstation aggregation is an unbiased technique for high recurrence level estimations when an appropriate fitting method is used, and the apparent biases are dependent on the method used for fitting the hazard model. To ensure homogeneity, we introduce a de–trending technique for minimizing any biases in the aggregated wind data. Four model-fitting methods for superstation analysis are compared, and shown that the introduced de-trending method is effective for eliminating the biases due to sampling errors and non-homogeneity.

Hybrid wind-solar energy potential modeling using ERA5 and solar irradiation data in google Earth Engine

Renewable energies play a significant role in mitigating the climate change impacts. Wind and solar energy are projected to supply larger amount to the total renewable energy capacity of many nations. Long-term wind and solar data availability and analysis is vital for sustainable renewable energy farming. In this research, we analyze wind speed u- and v-components at 10 m height of the ERA5 daily reanalysis aggregates at a mesh of 31 Km during a long period (2010–2020) over the Red Sea and the Gulf of Suez coasts of Egypt. Google Earth Engine (GEE) code is developed and used for the analysis. The prime objective is to derive estimates on the spatio-temporal variability of speed, direction, and the wind energy estimates in the area. Further, the solar energy potential has been evaluated using reference data of the PVOUT – Photovoltaic power potential (kWh/m2/day) data, at nearly 1 km resolution, which is normalized at the evaluated sites, and then used to rank sites with their solar energy potential. Evaluation of estimates is carried out at selected thirteen sites distributed along the coasts to better understand the hybrid wind-solar energy potential. Frequency analysis is carried out to the wind speed spatial estimates to demarcate highest frequency wind events potential for wind farming. Reference in-situ wind speed observations available at daily and monthly time scales for Hurghada weather station is used for investigating the reanalysis data performance. The Hurghada site had the highest average wind speed (6.7 m s−1), frequency of events (75 %), and mean daily (60.4 kWh) and annual (22.02 MWh) wind energy. The windiest time intervals were the September month, 2017 year, and the summer season. The north had wind energy directions of 130°, while the south had 110°. Trend analysis showed declining trends for northern locations and rising yearly wind speed estimates for Berenice (0.005) and Halayeb (0.002). El-Tor location had the highest solar energy output, with a daily mean of 5.52 kWh/m2 and an annual mean of almost 2015 kWh/m2. The Hurghada, Jemsa, G. Zeit, and El-Tor sites achieved the highest rankings in terms of hybrid wind-solar energy potential. The results can be very valuable for optimal location of hybrid solar-wind energy facilities and provide viable and promising solutions for sustainably meeting Egypt's growing clean energy demands.