Estimating Wind Speeds in Tornadoes Using Debris Trajectories of Large Compact Objects

Abstract

Abstract Currently, the enhanced Fujita scale does not consider the wind-induced movement of various large compact objects such as vehicles, construction equipment, and farming equipment/haybales that are often found in postevent damage surveys. One reason for this is that modeling debris in tornadoes comes with considerable uncertainties since there are many parameters to determine, leading to difficulties in using trajectories to analyze wind speeds of tornadoes. This paper aims to develop a forensic tool using analytical tornado models to estimate lofting wind speeds based on trajectories of large compact objects. This is accomplished by implementing a Monte Carlo simulation to randomly select the parameters and plotting cumulative distribution functions showing the likelihood of lofting at each wind speed. After analyzing the debris lofting from several documented tornadoes in Canada, the results indicate that the method provides threshold lofting wind speeds that are similar to the estimated speeds given by other methods. However, the introduction of trajectories produces estimated lofting wind speeds that are higher than the EF-scale rating given from the ground survey assessment based on structural damage. Further studies will be required to better understand these differences.