Laser junction temperature (Tj) is an essential parameter that directly affects the light power and lifetime of semiconductor lasers. Here, we investigate the effect of Tj on an InAs/GaAs quantum dot (QD) laser grown on a Si(001) substrate. Under 1% low pulsed current (1 µs pulse width and 100 µs period), the pure temperature-induced mode shift rate is 0.084 nm/°C. By increasing the duty cycle and measuring the corresponding mode wavelength shift, the laser’s Tj under the continuous-wave (Tj-CW) mode is predicted to be from 31.1 to 81.6 °C when the injection current increases from 100 to 550 mA. Next, the average thermal resistance is 36.2 °C/W. Moreover, the non-negligible increase in Tj-CW is analyzed to significantly reduce the mean-time-to-failure of Si-based QD laser, especially for cases under high CW injection currents. These results provide an accurate reference for the thermal analysis of silicon-based QD lasers and point the way to high performance on-chip light sources by improving the laser heat accumulation.