Essential Commodities Research Articles

The crowding-out effect of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) on household expenditure patterns in Bangladesh

BackgroundConsumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) or sugary drinks may reduce or even eliminate the household income allocation for other essential commodities. Reducing expenditure for consumption of other household commodities is known as the crowding-out effect of SSB. We aimed to determine the crowding-out effect of SSB expenditure on other household commodities. In addition, we also identified the factors influencing the household's decision to purchase of SSBs.MethodsWe used the logistic regression (logit and multinomial logit models) and the Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) models. In order to find the probability of a given change in the socio-demographic variables, we also estimated the average marginal effects from the logistic regression. In addition, we regressed the SUR model by gender differences. We used Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) 2016 data to estimate our chosen econometric models. HIES is nationally representative data on the household level across the country and is conducted using a multistage random sampling method by covering 46,075 households.ResultsThe findings from the logit model describe that the greater proportion of male members, larger household size, household heads with higher education, profession, having a refrigerator, members living outside of the house, and households with higher income positively affect the decision of purchasing SSB. However, the determinants vary with the various types of SSB. The unadjusted crowding out effect shows that expenditure on SSB or sugar-added drinks crowds out the household expenditure on food, clothing, housing, and energy items. On the other hand, the adjusted crowding out effect crowds out the spending on housing, education, transportation, and social and state responsibilities.ConclusionAlthough the household expenditure on beverages and sugar-added drinks is still moderate (around 2% of monthly household expenditure), the increased spending on beverages and sugar-added drinks is a concern due to the displacement of household expenditure for basic commodities such as food, clothing, housing, education, and energy. Therefore, evidence-based policies to regulate the sale and consumption of SSB are required for a healthy nation.

Inventory optimization in a green environment with two warehouses

Recently, the environment requires more emphasis on reverse logistics in order to maintain sustainability of the human civilization. The article introduces a sustainable model for reverse logistics that is based on two storage facility. Generally speaking, the essential commodities are considered to be decaying in nature. In this model, finite replenishment rate is considered and managed by the forward as well as reverse supply chain. In the beginning, the remanufactured and newly manufactured products are stored in owned warehouses (OW) that have limited storage space and for the excess amount; suppliers hire a rented warehouses (RW) at a higher holding cost than owning warehouses. The objective of this model is to obtain the optimal production and remanufacturing strategies to minimize the total relevant costs of the system. The paper concludes with an illustration of numerical data and a sensitivity analysis. Based on the results, the practitioners are advised to reduce the cycle length if the production rate is relevantly high. Thus it will reduce the holding cost, eventually the total cost of the system.

RESPON ORGANOLEPTIK CUMI-CUMI (Loligo sp) YANG DIRENDAM DENGAN MENTIMUN (Cucumis sativus) PADA DURASI DAN KONSENTRASI BERBEDA

Squid (Loligo sp) is one of the most essential fishery commodities and ranks third after fish and shrimp in commercial fisheries. The freshness of the squid is a very important factor and is closely related to its economic value. One of the actors in the marine commodity storage business at Rebo Beach, Bangka Regency uses Cucumbers to maintain the quality of Squid. Until now there has been no scientific research that proves that Cucumber can be used as a preservative for Squid. For this reason, it is necessary to research to examine the effect of using cucumber at different concentrations and soaking times on the organoleptic assessment of squid quality. This research was conducted in February 2020. The handling process for the Squid was carried out at the Squid shelter in Baturusa, Merawang District, Bangka Regency. In contrast, the organoleptic tests were carried out at the Aquaculture Laboratory of the University of Bangka Belitung. The research was conducted by experimental method. The research variables were differences in the concentration of grated Cucumber and differences in the length of soaking Squid. This study used RAL (Completely Randomized Design) Factorial pattern with 2 factors and 3 replications. Treatment factor by giving grated Cucumber and control or using ice cubes at different times and doses. The soaking times in this study were 24 hours and 48 hours with grated cucumber measurements of 50, 100, and 150 grams per 5 liters of water. Data analysis in this study used the Kruskarwalis test. Squid treated with grated cucumber had the same brightness level as ice cubes after 24 hours of soaking. Giving grated Cucumber does not affect the taste and texture of Squid to the level of people's preferences. Giving grated Cucumber as much as 150 g with 24 hours of soaking time can be accepted by consumers and can compete with Squid which is given ice cube treatment.

On the efficacy of “herd behavior” in the commodities market: A neuro‐fuzzy agent “herding” on deep learning traders

This article analyzes the trading strategies of five state‐of‐the‐art agents based on reinforcement learning on six commodity futures: brent oil, corn, gold, coal, natural gas, and sugar. Some of these were chosen because of the periods considered (when they became essential commodities), that is, before and after the 2022 Russia–Ukraine conflict. Agents behavior was assessed using a series of financial indicators, and the trader with the best strategy was selected. Top traders' behavior helped train our recently introduced neuro‐fuzzy agent, which adjusted its trading strategy through “herd behavior.” The results highlight how the reinforcement learning agents performed excellently and how our neuro‐fuzzy trader could improve its strategy using competitor movement information. Finally, we performed experiments with and without transaction costs, observing that, despite these costs, there are fewer transactions. Moreover, the intelligent agents' performances are outstanding and surpassed by the neuro‐fuzzy agent.

Detection and identification of viruses associated to mealybug wilt pineapple in Blitar, East Java, Indonesia

Pineapple is one of the essential export commodities in Indonesia. However, its production is constrained by pathogen infections, including viruses. Recently, a field surveyed at a pineapple production area in Blitar regency found virus-like symptoms such as leaf reddish intermingle with chlorosis and necrotic leaf tips with incidence up to 50% on clone 7350. However, until present, the genetic identity of causal viruses has been limitedly available in Indonesia. The study aimed to detect and identify the virus species associated with mealybug wilt pineapple (MWP) in Blitar regency. Total RNA was extracted and detected by one-step RT-PCR using a universal primer of Ampelovirus, a specific primer of pineapple mealybug wilt-associated virus (PMWaV) 1 and 2, and confirmed by DNA sequencing. The PMWaV-1 and PMWaV-2 were successfully amplified by specific primers, while by Ampelovirus universal primers negatively amplified any DNA. It confirmed that the causal virus is associated with corresponding symptoms only by PMWaV-1 and -2 on clone 7350. Based on partial sequences of the HSP70 gene confirmed the existence of both species. The identity of PMWaV-1 Blitar isolates showed the highest similarity of nucleotide and amino acid to isolates from Taiwan, Mexico, and Ghana. The PMWaV-2 Blitar isolates showed the highest similarity to isolates from Taiwan, Mauritius, Cuba, and Ghana. The highly incidence of MWP suggests that cultivating virus-free vegetative propagation will become the best strategy to manage the viruses in the fields.

Utilization of Petroleum and Natural Gas on the Sustainable Development of Indonesian Economy

Throughout the history of national development, petroleum and natural gas have played a vital and strategic role, serving as essential energy sources for various economic activities. The petroleum and gas sector also contributes significantly to state revenue through the management of these resources. The author aims to discuss the appropriate utilization of petroleum and natural gas and its potential to enhance economic income in Indonesia. Petroleum and natural gas, as valuable resources, exist in liquid and solid forms within the earth's reservoirs. Indonesia possesses vast reserves of petroleum and gas, with numerous untapped fields remaining. Utilizing these resources effectively can lead to increased state revenue. Given their significance as essential commodities in the national economy, managing petroleum and natural gas is crucial for optimizing prosperity and welfare for the population.

The protective nature of gold during times of oil price volatility: An analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic

This research explores gold's safe-haven properties amid oil price instability, focusing on the COVID-19 pandemic. The study examines how gold hedges against oil price swings in the context of the pandemic's exceptional market circumstances. A VAR (Vector Autoregressive) model analyzes gold and oil prices from 2006 through 2021. The VAR model reflects the dynamic interactions and interdependencies between these two essential commodities in the context of oil price volatility and the COVID-19 pandemic. This analysis shows that gold protects against oil price volatility and the COVID-19 pandemic—gold buffers against oil price swings due to its strong inverse association with oil prices. Gold offers investors security and asset preservation during significant oil price volatility. In light of oil price volatility and the COVID-19 pandemic, the study helps explain gold's importance as a diversification tool and haven asset. Investors, policymakers, and market players should consider gold as a hedge against oil price volatility and economic instability.

Proposed NEP-2020 Syllabus for 4 Years Bachelor of Science (Honours) in Yoga

In 2000, the University Grants Commission, Ministry of Human Resource and Development, Government of India, requested all the universities to open a new yoga department in the name of Department of Yoga and Human Consciousness. They offered academic and non-academic posts with financial support for infrastructure and other essential commodities. Some interested universities have opened yoga departments since then and continue to do so successfully. After a long gap again, in 2016 Government of India selected six central universities, one from each zone, to open the Department of Yogic Art & Science. UGC offered 11 cores for five years for the foundation and development of these departments for staffs and infrastructure. Between 2000 to 2016, UGC occasionally provided all the universities with at least to open yoga center for their communities and stakeholders. In 2016 UGC mentioned the following seven courses to be open step by step. 1. Certificate in Yoga, 2. PG Diploma In Yoga, 3. PG Diploma in Yoga Therapy, 4. B.Sc in Yoga, 5. M.Sc. in Yoga, 6. Ph.D. in Yoga, 7. Integrated M.Sc. Ph.D. in Yoga. After 2016 slowly, other central, state, private, and deemed universities started to open yoga department or converted yoga centers into a department. National Education Policy-2020 (NEP-2020), allows us to reconstruct the Yoga courses for the best benefit of our future generation.

A Multi-Variable Sentinel-2 Random Forest Machine Learning Model Approach to Predicting Perennial Ryegrass Biomass in Commercial Dairy Farms in Southeast Australia

One of the most valuable and nutritionally essential agricultural commodities worldwide is milk. The European Union and New Zealand are the second- and third-largest exporting regions of milk products and rely heavily on pasture-based production systems. They are comparable to the Australian systems investigated in this study. With projections of herd decline, increased milk yield must be obtained from a combination of animal genetics and feed efficiencies. Accurate pasture biomass estimation across all seasons will improve feed efficiency and increase the productivity of dairy farms; however, the existing time-consuming and manual methods of pasture measurement limit improvements to utilisation. In this study, Sentinel-2 (S2) band and spectral index (SI) information were coupled with the broad season and management-derived datasets using a Random Forest (RF) machine learning (ML) framework to develop a perennial ryegrass (PRG) biomass prediction model accurate to +/−500 kg DM/ha, and that could predict pasture yield above 3000 kg DM/ha. Measurements of PRG biomass were taken from 11 working dairy farms across southeastern Australia over 2019–2021. Of the 68 possible variables investigated, multiple simulations identified 12 S2 bands and 9 SI, management and season as the most important variables, where Short-Wave Infrared (SWIR) bands were the most influential in predicting pasture biomass above 4000 kg DM/ha. Conditional Latin Hypercube Sampling (cLHS) was used to split the dataset into 80% and 20% for model calibration and internal validation in addition to an entirely independent validation dataset. The combined internal model validation showed R2 = 0.90, LCCC = 0.72, RMSE = 439.49 kg DM/ha, NRMSE = 15.08, and the combined independent validation had R2 = 0.88, LCCC = 0.68, RMSE = 457.05 kg DM/ha, NRMSE = 19.83. The key findings of this study indicated that the data obtained from the S2 bands and SI were appropriate for making accurate estimations of PRG biomass. Furthermore, including SWIR bands significantly improved the model. Finally, by utilising an RF ML model, a single ‘global’ model can automate PRG biomass prediction with high accuracy across extensive regions of all seasons and types of farm management.

A Study on E-Tailing and the Factors Influencing Consumer Buying Decisions of Dairy Products During the Covid-19 Pandemic in India

During the COVID-19 pandemic and its mutations infecting humans, the Government of India imposed a lockdown all over the country, the exceptions were for commodities covered under the Essential Commodities Act, 1955. The essential commodities act, includes drugs, dairy products, fertilizer, foodstuffs, petroleum products, jute, textile, fruits, vegetables, cattle fodder, and cottonseed. This study will understand how the dairy industries coped during the pandemic by adopting new strategies from e-tailing and related factors. During the ongoing pandemic, this study mainly focuses on using mobile apps and e-stores for online sales of dairy products. The quantitative study uses primary and secondary data. The dairy products included in the study are curd, paneer, buttermilk w.r.t e-tailers like Milky moo, Omfed, Big Bazaar, Fresh express, Home express, Swiggy, and Nature’s basket. Many dairy companies have their apps and websites. This study is carried out in the capital city Bhubaneswar.

Lessons learnt from community referral and follow up of sick young infants with possible severe bacterial infection in Turkana County, Kenya

IntroductionManagement of possible severe bacterial infections in young infants (0–59 days) requires timely identification of danger signs and prompt administration of efficacious antibiotic treatment. The Possible Severe Bacterial Infection guidelines underscore the importance of close follow up in an outpatient basis to ensure treatment adherence and early detection of illness-related complications. The purpose of this study was to strengthen the follow up and referral of sick young infants on day 4 and 8 by introducing community-led interventions that facilitated community health volunteers to identify sick young infants, conduct community reviews, link data with responsive facilities, and refer appropriately. MethodsSix health facilities were included in a longitudinal, descriptive, mixed methods approach weaved around an initial formative context assessment and three-monthly assessments between October 2019 to January 2020 with a endline assessment in August 2020. Quantitative data was extracted from facility registers to identify gaps in follow up and referral feasibility. Qualitative data was through focus group discussions with community health volunteers and key informant interviews with frontline providers. ResultsQualitative data provided insights into key barriers and facilitators of community follow up and referral. Barriers include community socio-cultural practices, competing tasks, dysfunctional community referral pathway, drivers of common infections, and unavailability of essential commodities. Key facilitators entail indication of competency in identification of danger signs in sick young infants, presence of older women, men, and community resource persons that can leveraged on in community engagement and sensitization, and mothers are the primary decision makers in care seeking. There was increased utilization of decision support tools and an increase in the number of sick young infants managed in dispensaries. The COVID-19 pandemic however negatively impacted community follow up and referral of sick young infants. ConclusionEssential barriers and facilitators to follow up and community referral entwined with facility-based vulnerabilities were highlighted. A two-pronged intervention on improving communication, linkage and subsequent follow up of sick young infants was employed in the six participating facilities. The feasibility, adoption, and fidelity of strengthening community facility linkage through integrated communication strategies was documented, indicative of a successful community-facility linkage in dispensaries and health centers despite the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The impacts of COVID-19 and its policy response on access and utilization of maternal and child health services in Tanzania: A mixed methods study.

The SARS-Cov-2 virus (COVID-19) has had a global social and economic impact. Despite the growing evidence, its effects on access and delivery of maternal and child health services in low-income countries are still unclear. This cross-sectional case study was conducted in Mjini Magharibi, Chake Chake, and Ilala districts in Tanzania to help fill this gap. The study combined qualitative and quantitative data collection methods, providing an account of the evolution of the pandemic and the associated control measures in Tanzania. We drew from 34 in-depth interviews, 60 semi-structured interviews, and 14 focus group discussions with key informants, patients, and health providers, and complemented the findings with a review of pandemic reports and health facility records. We followed the Standards for Reporting Qualitative Research (SRQR) to provide an account of the findings. Our account of the pandemic shows that there was at times an inconsistent policy response in Tanzania, with diverse control measures adopted at various stages of the epidemic. There was a perception that COVID-19 services were prioritized during the epidemic at the expense of regular ones. There were reports of reorganisation of health facilities, reallocation of staff, rescheduled antenatal and postnatal clinics, and reduced time for health education and child monitoring. Scarcity of essential commodities was reported, such as vaccines, equipment, and medical supplies. Such perceptions were in part supported by the routine utilization evidence in the three districts, showing a lower uptake of antenatal, postnatal, family planning, and immunization services, as well as fewer institutional deliveries. Our findings suggest that, although the policy response in Tanzania was erratic, it was rather fear of the pandemic itself and diversion of resources to control COVID-19, that may have contributed most to lower the utilization of mother and child services. For future emergencies, it will be crucial to ensure the policy response does not weaken the population's demand for services.

The Question of Quality Ordering of Health Commodities in Tanga Region, IMPACT Approach Becomes Relevant Driver to the Answers

The effective delivery of integrated health services depends on the extent to which the six pillars of a health system as recommended by WHO are adhered to such as adequate human resources for health, service delivery, financing, health system governance, information, quality medicines and technologies. However, to improve supply chain management leading to uninterrupted supply of medicines and other health commodities, the use of data to inform all parts of the health supply chain logistics system, that include product selection, forecasting, quantification, procurement, storage and finally distribution of health commodities, is very important. Previously, Tanga Region had been facing a number of health supply chain issues such as delays in reportingfrom health facilities, a high number of orders for overstocked and no-demand health commodities, unnecessary higher expenditure on health commodities and a high rejection rate for the same R&R rejection reasons. Soon after the introduction of the IMPACT approach in the region, the IMPACT team at the regional level adopted some innovative data-driven strategies at its regular meetingssuch as regular data extraction and analysis to review indicators, monitoring timeliness of reporting as well as data quality, monitoring stock orders to avoid expiry dates, and sharing feedback with councils to take action to address identified gaps. These efforts resulted into decrease in the values of reordered overstocked and not in demand health commodities, massive improvement in terms of reporting timeliness from 76% in January 2022 to 99% in January 2023 and slight increase in the availability of essential health commodities. This study found that improving reporting timeliness and supply chain data quality is a cornerstone towards uninterrupted supply of health commodities and reduced health commodities wastages. Since IMPACT Team techniques has been vital in the identified supply chain improvements then it is an approach that can be applied to improve other supply chain indicators and reduce wastages. Despite the marginal improvement in the availability of health commodities, this study recommends the use of facility formulary-based approach in the calculation of health commodities availability to increase the validity of the results.

Drivers of retention of the HIV workforce transitioned from PEPFAR support to the Uganda government payroll

BackgroundHealth worker (HW) retention in the public health sector in Uganda is an enduring health system constraint. Although previous studies have examined the retention of in-service HWs, there is little research focusing on donor-recruited HWs. The objective of this study was to explore drivers of retention of the HIV workforce transitioned from PEPFAR support to the Uganda government payroll between 2015 and 2017.MethodsWe conducted ten focus group discussions with HWs (n = 87) transitioned from PEPFAR support to the public sector payroll in 10 purposively selected districts across Uganda. In-depth interviews were conducted with national-level stakeholders (n = 17), district health and personnel officers (n = 15) and facility in-charges (n = 22). Data were analyzed by a hybrid approach of inductive and deductive thematic development based on the analytical framework by Schaefer and Moos regarding individual-level and organizational-context drivers.ResultsAt the individual level, job security in the public sector was the most compelling driver of health worker retention. Community embeddedness of HWs in the study districts, opportunities for professional development and career growth and the ability to secure salary loans due to ‘permanent and pensionable’ terms of employment and the opportunity to work in ‘home districts’, where they could serve their ‘kinsmen’ were identified as enablers. HWs with prior private sector backgrounds perceived public facilities as offering more desirable challenging professional work. Organizational context enablers identified include perceptions that public facilities had relaxed supervision regimes and more flexible work environments. Work environment barriers to long-term retention include frequent stock-out of essential commodities, heavy workloads, low pay and scarcity of rental accommodation, particularly in rural Northern Uganda. Compared to mid-cadres (such as nurses and midwives), higher calibre cadres, such as physicians, pharmacists and laboratory technologists, expressed a higher affinity for seeking alternative employment in the private sector in the immediate future.ConclusionsOverall, job security was the most compelling driver of retention in public service for the health workforce transitioned from PEPFAR support to the Uganda government payroll. Monetary and non-monetary policy strategies are needed to enhance the retention of upper cadre HWs, particularly physicians, pharmacists and laboratory technologists in rural districts of Uganda.

DISTRIBUTIONAL INCIDENCE OF INDIRECT TAXATION: AN EMPIRICAL REVIEW

In this article, we reviewed the published Research works on indirect tax incidence, which describes the way of distributing indirect tax burden among households, and the purpose of this review is to identify the distributional impact of the burden of indirect tax on different groups, such as income groups, expenditure groups, commodity groups, and demographic groups, etc. The process of systematic review has been implemented in order to search, select, appraise, synthesize, and report the findings of previous studies. A government's revenue depends on several sources. Among them, indirect taxes are used as a major form of collecting government revenue, especially in developing countries. We observed major findings that there is a regressive type picture of the overall indirect tax system, which mainly impacts the vulnerable groups in a country. Indirect taxes will be paid by every household irrespective of income level. Even though the incidence theory of taxation describes the burden of indirect tax distributed among producers and consumers as per the elasticity of demand and supply, that would not happen practically. The imposition of indirect taxes leads to an increase in raw materials, then increase the cost of production and ultimately increases the price level of the country, which creates cost-push inflation. The entire portion of the indirect tax will be shifted to the end consumer. The increase in indirect taxes will be led to a rise in the tax burden on households. The burden of indirect taxation highly damages the living standards of the low-income groups in a country, especially due to the consumption tax. Households that are earning low incomes will be paid a relatively higher portion of indirect taxes than the households that have higher incomes. Past researchers have emphasized the importance of eliminating the consumption taxes on essential and most sensitive commodities, which are mostly consumed by the poor income groups.

Cashew Production and Breeding in 5 West African Countries

Cashew (Anacardium occidentale L.) Is an evergreen perennial tree crop that produce hard greyish nut enclosing a white nutritious kernel. The kernel is one of the major edible nuts or snacks with increasing global demand. The world's largest and most active cashew production region is in West Africa; where Cote d’ivoire, Nigeria, Benin, Guinea-bissau and Ghana top the list of countries where it thrives best. Since 2014, cashew has become the second-main crop after cocoa in terms of export value, in these countries. It is one of the essential agricultural commodities that have significantly boosted the continent of Africa's GDP, foreign exchange profits, and overall worth due to the rising demand for raw cashew nuts. Cote d'ivoire has profited from a few research and development programs in nut quality control. Efforts are on to enhance the peel-ability of Nigerian cashews and to produce improved planting material with the help of private sector investment. Cashew cultivars development of Guinea-bissau has not made significant progress, due to few resources available for doing research. In Ghana, there are efforts to increase the genetic diversity of cashews, and in Benin, numerous farmers have reported inadequate output from their cashew fields. Narrow genetic diversity has been reported in west African cashew gene pools. Low productivity, poor nut quality, infestation of pests and diseases, poor funding, and other factors continue to limit cashew production in West Africa. Improvement in nut yield, nut quality, and broadening of cashew genetic base is important to the sustainability of the region’s cashew sector. This paper provides an overview of current status of cashew production and breeding in the top five cashew producing countries of West African; the challenges, and opportunities for future improvement.

SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT IN IRAQ

Agricultural development gains its importance from the importance and vitality of the sector in which it operates. That sector is the first production field and the main source of capital accumulation and the liberation of the necessary manpower for the development of other economic sectors. At the same time, it is the main source of supplying national industries with what they need of raw materials. Therefore, agricultural development is the necessary introduction to achieve comprehensive development. It started from a problem that Iraq is a country rich in its capabilities and resources and has turned into a food importing country to meet its needs of essential commodities and no longer fills the requirements of local need. Therefore, the research hypothesis came to adopt contemporary concepts of agricultural reform and rebuilding relations Productivity and the use of contemporary technologies to achieve the desired agricultural development. The research aimed to reveal the provinces in which the cultivation of agricultural crops flourishes and the provinces in which agriculture of all kinds decreases and the reasons that led to that. And the detection of the factors that led to the lack of agricultural production and caused the deterioration of agricultural production in Iraq0 and provide solutions and proposals after knowing the problem and its causes. The research found that there are large discrepancies in agricultural production between the governorates. According to the capabilities of each governorate and what its natural and human conditions allow. And that there is a negative trend in agricultural production as a result of the high costs of fuel and energy used in agricultural production, the high costs of tillage, harvesting, maintenance, and the entry of imported goods into Iraq. The study, especially the spatial data, was supported by maps, and it was used mostly in drawing it according to the technique of logarithmic analysis, which was commensurate with the distribution of data for this research. Modern drawing based on latitude and longitude.

Assessing the Causality Relationship between the Geopolitical Risk Index and the Agricultural Commodity Markets

The aim of this study was to investigate the Granger causality between geopolitical risk (GPR) sub-indices in order to examine the implications of geopolitical risk on ten agricultural commodities classified as softs or grains. The Granger causality test was used to determine the causal relationship between the daily GPR sub-indices and the future prices of ten essential agricultural commodities from 31 March 2000 to 31 March 2022. We discovered that the GPR Threat and Act sub-indices Granger-caused changes in the wheat and oat commodity prices. These findings were also connected to the ongoing Russian–Ukrainian conflict, which has had an impact on agricultural commodity prices because both countries are major agricultural producers. The empirical results also showed how the GPR Threat sub-index Granger-affected the future prices of soybean oil, coffee, wheat, and oats. On the other hand, the GPR Act sub-index only Granger-affected the future price of oats. The findings of this study should provide useful information to both policymakers and governments to help them acknowledge the importance of geopolitical risk when setting their national policies related to food security.

The impact of geopolitical risk on agricultural commodity prices

<br />The escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine had a detrimental effect on the global agricultural and food market and the price movements of essential commodities. In this study, we aim to investigate the effects of geopolitical risk on the prices of selected agricultural and food commodities using the linear and nonlinear ARDL (autoregressive distributed lag) model. Our results show evidence of the asymmetric impact of geopolitical risk on the prices of rapeseed, sugar, sunflower oil, and wheat. The findings also show no long-term link between geopolitical risk and corn, cotton, lumber, milk, oats, rough rice, and soybean prices.

The Model of Decision Making For Shopping At Factory Outlets

Initially, Factory Outlet (FO) referred to stores selling high-quality export ready-to-wear at affordable prices. However, the concept has grown to include a variety of household needs. To excel in this service-oriented industry, emphasis on customer satisfaction is paramount. The surge in world oil prices has had a ripple effect on the cost of essential commodities, resulting in a drain on the purchasing power of many people. However, a gradual shift occurred as Factory Outlets regained popularity due to their reputation for selling quality export goods at lower prices. Indonesia's consumerist tendencies are further fueling demand for these outlets, fueled by attractive discounts and tempting offers. The authors' curiosity was piqued by the lack of similar research on the subject. This research, in particular, explores the influence of individual external and internal factors on the shopping choices of Factory Outlet consumers. In the assessment of Simple Linear Regression 1 X1 to Y, the coefficient of determination is calculated as 0.188 or 18.8%. These results indicate that external factors hold an influence of 18.8% on decision making, while 81.2% (100% - 18.8%) can be attributed to other factors. The results of Simple Linear Regression 2, especially X2 to Y, obtained a coefficient of determination of 0.079 or equivalent to 7.9%. This shows that decision making is strongly influenced by internal factors, while other factors provide an explanation of 92.1% (100% - 7.9%). Multiple Linear Regression Analysis reveals that when X1 and X2 are calculated with Y, the influence of external variables on the decision making variable is determined to be 48.7%. The influence of internal variables on decision-making variables was found to be 7.3%. The combined influence of external and internal variables on decision-making variables is measured at 19.1%. Other variables outside the path analysis model have an effect of 80.9%.