Essen Stroke Risk Score Research Articles

Endogenous Deoxyribonuclease Activity and Cell-Free Deoxyribonucleic Acid in Acute Ischemic Stroke: A Cohort Study.

Cell-free DNA (cfDNA) and endogenous deoxyribonuclease activity are opposing mediators and might influence the inflammatory response following acute ischemic stroke. In this cohort study, we investigated the relation between these markers, circulating inflammatory mediators and clinical course including occurrence of stroke-associated infections (SAI) in patients with acute stroke. Ninety-two patients with stroke due to large vessel occlusion undergoing mechanical thrombectomy were prospectively recruited at Hannover Medical School from March 2018 to August 2019. Deoxyribonuclease activity, cfDNA, damage-associated molecular patterns, and circulating cytokines were measured in venous blood collected immediately before mechanical thrombectomy and 7 days later. Reperfusion status was categorized (sufficient/insufficient). Clinical outcome was evaluated using the modified Rankin Scale after 90 days, where a score of 3 to 6 was considered unfavorable. To validate findings regarding SAI, another stroke cohort (n=92) was considered with blood taken within 24 hours after stroke onset. Patients with unfavorable clinical outcome had higher cfDNA concentrations. After adjustment for confounders (Essen Stroke Risk Score, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale, and sex), 7-day cfDNA was independently associated with clinical outcome and especially mortality (adjusted odds ratio: 3.485 [95% CI, 1.001-12.134] and adjusted odds ratio: 9.585 [95% CI, 2.006-45.790]). No association was found between reperfusion status and cfDNA or deoxyribonuclease activity. While cfDNA concentrations correlated positively, deoxyribonuclease activity inversely correlated with distinct biomarkers. Baseline deoxyribonuclease activity was lower in patients who developed SAI compared with patients without SAI. This association was confirmed after adjustment for confounding factors (adjusted odds ratio: 0.447 [95% CI, 0.237-0.844]). In cohort 2, differences of deoxyribonuclease activity between patients with and without SAI tended to be higher with higher stroke severity. The interplay of endogenous deoxyribonuclease activity and cfDNA in acute stroke entails interesting novel diagnostic and potential therapeutic approaches. We confirm an independent association of cfDNA with a detrimental clinical course after stroke due to large vessel occlusion. This study provides first evidence for lower endogenous deoxyribonuclease activity as risk factor for SAI after severe stroke.

Gut Microbial Dysbiosis Associated with Type 2 Diabetes Aggravates Acute Ischemic Stroke.

ABSTRACTType 2 diabetes (T2D) is an independent risk factor for acute ischemic stroke (AIS), but the underlying mechanisms remain elusive. Because the gut microbiota plays a causal role in both T2D and AIS, we wondered whether gut dysbiosis in T2D aggravates stroke progression. We recruited 35 T2D, 90 AIS, 60 AIS with T2D (AIS_T2D) patients, and 55 healthy controls and found that AIS and T2D had an additive effect on AIS_T2D patient gut dysbiosis by exhibiting the largest difference from the heathy controls. In addition, we found that the degree of gut dysbiosis associated with T2D was positively correlated with the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), modified Rankin score (mRS), and Essen stroke risk score in patients with AIS, including AIS and AIS_T2D patients. Compared with mice colonized with gut microbiota from healthy controls poststroke modeling, germfree (GF) mice colonized with gut microbiota from T2D patients showed exacerbated cerebral injury and impaired gut barrier function. Specifically, exacerbated brain injury and gut barrier dysfunction in T2D-treated GF mice were significantly associated with a reduction in short-chain fatty acid (SCFA)-producing bacteria. Our study showed that T2D and AIS have an additive effect on AIS_T2D patient gut microbiota dysbiosis. T2D-associated gut microbiota dysbiosis is associated with stroke severity in AIS patients and aggravates stroke progression in mice.IMPORTANCE We demonstrated an additive effect of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and acute ischemic stroke (AIS) on AIS with T2D (AIS_T2D) patient gut microbiota dysbiosis, and gut dysbiosis associated with T2D was positively correlated with stroke severity in AIS patients. Through animal experiments, we found that cerebral injury was exacerbated by fecal microbiota transplantation from T2D patients compared with that from healthy controls, which was associated with a reduction in short-chain fatty acid (SCFA)-producing bacteria. This study provided a novel view that links T2D and AIS through gut microbial dysbiosis.

Risks of Stroke Recurrence and Mortality After First and Recurrent Strokes in Denmark: A Nationwide Registry Study.

To examine risks of stroke recurrence and mortality after first and recurrent stroke. Using Danish nationwide health registries, we included patients age ≥18 years with first-time ischemic stroke (n = 105,397) or intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) (n = 13,350) from 2004 to 2018. Accounting for the competing risk of death, absolute risks of stroke recurrence were computed separately for each stroke subtype and within strata of age groups, sex, stroke severity, body mass index, smoking, alcohol use, Essen stroke risk score, and atrial fibrillation. Mortality risks were computed after first and recurrent stroke. After adjusting for competing risks, the overall 1-year and 10-year risks of recurrence were 4% and 13% following first-time ischemic stroke and 3% and 12% following first-time ICH. For ischemic stroke, the risk of recurrence increased with age and was higher for men and following mild vs more severe stroke. The most marked differences were across Essen risk scores, for which recurrence risks increased with increasing scores. For ICH, risks were similar for both sexes and did not increase with Essen risk score. For ischemic stroke, the 1-year and 10-year risks of all-cause mortality were 17% and 56% after a first-time stroke and 25% and 70% after a recurrent stroke; corresponding estimates for ICH were 37% and 70% after a first-time event and 31% and 75% after a recurrent event. The risk of stroke recurrence was substantial following both subtypes, but risks differed markedly among patient subgroups. The risk of mortality was higher after a recurrent than first-time stroke.

Abstract 11932: Outcome Predictions Using Machine Learning in Atrial Fibrillation-Related Stroke

Introduction: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is one of the most important risk factor for poor clinical outcomes in stroke patients, however, until now, there has been no outcome prediction model in stroke concomitant with AF. The aim of study was to build a powerful machine learning model for predicting outcomes in AF-related stroke. Methods: Using a multi-center prospective stroke registry from 11 tertiary centers in South Korea performed between January 2013 and December 2015, a total of 3090 patients were included. Various clinical, laboratory and imaging factors and medications at discharge were collected. Outcomes included recurrent stroke, all-cause death, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), major hemorrhage, and any gastrointestinal hemorrhage. Random survival forest and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) were used for machine learning and Cox proportional hazard method as a baseline model and five stroke prediction scoring systems including CHADS 2 , CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc, ATRIA, ESRS (Essen Stroke Risk Score), and FSS (Fukuoka stroke scale) were selected. Among the data, 25% was randomly held out and used only in model performance evaluation. The remaining 75% data was used in model construction with 10-fold cross validation scheme. To compare performance between models, prediction power and error were evaluated as concordance index and integrated brier score, respectively. Results: The highest concordance index was achieved with XGBoost for all-cause death (0.899, 95% CI, 0.893 -0.905) and MACE (0.843, 95% CI, 0.838 - 0.848) and with random survival forest for predicting major hemorrhage (0.789, 95% CI, 0.729 - 0.838) and any gastrointestinal hemorrhage (0.819, 95% CI, 0.767 - 0.861). For predicting recurrent stroke, all models showed very poor performances and Fukuoka stroke scale achieved the highest concordance index (0.580, 95% CI, 0.561 - 0.598). Machine learning models achieved the lowest prediction error in all outcome predictions among models. Conclusions: Machine learning model can be useful for predicting outcomes in AF-related stroke. However, the performance of all models was relatively low with regards to recurrent stroke. Further study is needed to validate this machine learning approach.

Inner diameters of the normal carotid arteries measured using three-dimensional digital subtraction catheter angiography: a retrospective analysis

PurposeTo obtain normal ranges for the inner diameters of the carotid arteries.MethodsThis retrospective analysis included consecutive patients with disease-free carotid arteries who had undergone 3D-DSA at two hospitals in Nanning, Guangxi, between March 2013 and March 2018. Demographic and clinical characteristics, including Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS), were extracted from the medical records. The 3D-DSA data were used to calculate the inner diameters of the carotid arteries.ResultsThe analysis included 1182 patients (837 males) aged 58.81 ± 11.02 years. The inner diameters of the proximal carotid sinus (CS), CS bulge, distal CS, and common carotid artery (CCA) were larger on the right than on the left (P < 0.05). The inner diameters of the proximal CS, CS bulge, distal CS, and CCA on both sides were larger for males than females (P < 0.05). The inner diameters of the proximal CS, CS bulge, and distal CS on both sides were smaller for patients aged > 65 years than for patients aged ≤ 55 years (P < 0.05). Right CCA inner diameter did not vary with age, whereas left CCA inner diameter was larger for patients aged > 55 years than for patients aged ≤ 45 years (P < 0.05). The inner diameters of the proximal CS, CS bulge, and distal CS on both sides were smaller for patients with ESRS ≥ 3 than those with ESRS < 3 (P < 0.05).ConclusionThis study provides reference values for the internal diameters of normal carotid arteries. Carotid artery diameters varied with side, sex, and age.

Validation of the ability of ESER score to predict recurrent stroke: a meta-analysis

IntroductionA risk stratification model is pretty important to prevent the recurrent stroke for ischemic stroke patients. The present study aimed to meta-analysis the ability of Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS) to accurately predict recurrence of ischemic stroke.Material and methodsStudies on the diagnostic performance of Essen Stroke Risk Score in predicting recurrent stroke were searched by electronic and manual methods. Quality pooled C-statistics, and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were evaluated.ResultsFifteen studies with a total of 94,052 patients were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled C-statistics of ESER for patients without atrial fibrillation (AF) experiencing recurring strokes at 90-day or one-year were 0.65 (95% CI: 0.58-0.73) and 0.57 (95% CI: 0.53-0.60), and the heterogeneity was weak. The average ratio of one-year recurrent stroke in the low-risk and high-risk groups classified according to ESRS is 5.6%(range 1.4 to 12.1%) and 9.2%( range 3.2 to 20.1%), respectively. And the calibration analysis showed the pooled RR in the low-risk group is 0.88 (95%CI: 0.24-3.19) and 0.88 (0.24-3.31) with wide confidence intervals and high levels of heterogeneity, indicating the calibration ability was low.ConclusionsESRS had low to moderate ability to predict recurrence of stroke in patients with ischemic stroke and low calibration ability, which need to be further improved.

Comparisons of Stroke Knowledge and Health Behaviors in Patients With Hypertensive Stroke at Different Recurrence Risk Strata: The Comprehensive Reminder System Based on the Health Belief Model Study.

Risk factor management via behavioral change contributes substantially to secondary stroke prevention. The health belief model identified self-perceived risk as a significant factor in behavior change. In previous studies, people have tended to incorrectly estimate their risk of stroke. Little is known about the differences in stroke knowledge and health behaviors in patients who have had a stroke with different risks of stroke recurrence in China. The aims of this study were to determine the accuracy of self-perceived risk of stroke recurrence and to compare stroke knowledge and health behaviors in patients with hypertensive stroke at different recurrence risk strata. Baseline data from 174 patients in the Comprehensive Reminder System based on the Health Belief Model (CRS-HBM) study were used. Self-perceived risk was assessed via the susceptibility subcategory of the Short-Form Health Belief Model Scale, and actual risk was stratified using the Essen Stroke Risk Score. Only 27.0% of the patients estimated their risks of stroke recurrence accurately. Patients who perceived themselves to be at higher risk had better knowledge of warning signs. Compared with patients who underestimated their risk of stroke recurrence, those who accurately estimated or overestimated their risk less likely to smoke. Most patients incorrectly estimated their risk of stroke recurrence. Communicating with patients about their future risk of recurrent stroke may help improve their stroke knowledge and health behaviors. Implementation of the Comprehensive Reminder System based on the Health Belief Model focusing on risk education aimed at prevention of stroke recurrence is warranted in China.

Major intraoperative aneurysm rupture may increase the risk of cerebral infarction following surgical clipping of unruptured intracranial aneurysms

ObjectiveIntraoperative aneurysm rupture (IAR) could cause a poor outcome. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between IARs and postoperative cerebral infarctions (CIs). MethodWe retrospectively reviewed patients with asymptomatic unruptured intracranial aneurysms (UIAs) who received microsurgical clipping in two neurosurgical centers from January 2016 to June 2019. A propensity score matching was done to constitute a cohort. The data were collected regarding the clinical and radiological characteristics. The CI at 1–2 weeks and the functional outcome at two weeks after clipping were recorded. Differences between IAR patients with CIs and without CIs were compared. The relationship between the IARs and postoperative CIs was investigated by using logistic regression analysis. ResultsThis study yielded 96 UIAs patients, including 48 patients undergoing IARs and 48 patients not. Twenty patients with CIs at 1–2 weeks after clipping were identified. The rate of CIs in patients undergoing IARs was higher than that in patients not undergoing IARs (OR, 2.88; p = 0.038); moreover, the mRS was also worse in patients undergoing IARs (OR, 1.58; p = 0.015). For patients undergoing IARs, the significance was found in ischemic cerebrovascular disease (OR, 6.40; p = 0.048), Essen stroke risk score (OR, 2.14; p = 0.026), and severity of intraoperative rupture (OR, 5.63; p = 0.023). The multivariate logistic analysis demonstrated the major IARs (OR, 6.09; CI, 1.18–31.53; p = 0.031) as the independent risk factor related to postoperative CI. ConclusionIARs could increase the risk of postoperative CIs and worsen the functional outcome, and major IAR was the independent risk factor related to the postoperative CIs.

Relationship between risk perception and lifestyle in ischemic stroke patients with H-type hypertension.

Patients with ischemic stroke who have H-type hypertension are at an increased risk of recurrent stroke. The relationship between risk perception and lifestyle in these patients has not been fully explored. The objective of this study is to investigate risk perceptions and lifestyles among H-type hypertensive ischemic stroke patients and explore their relationships. A total of 314 hypertensive ischemic stroke patients were divided according to homocysteine (Hcy) level into the normal Hcy and high Hcy group using convenience sampling. The high Hcy group was further divided into the perceived or non-perceived group based on the patients' risk perceptions. The Essen Stroke Risk Score and the Health Behavior Scale were used to investigate the patients' risk perceptions and lifestyles. The perceived risk factors in the high Hcy group included hypertension, diabetes, alcohol consumption, hyperlipidemia, and smoking, which showed no significant difference with those in the normal Hcy group. The high Hcy group had a total lifestyle score of (2.54±0.42). The perceived group had a better lifestyle than the non-perceived group; however, only blood pressure monitoring compliance showed a significant difference between the groups (P<0.05). The lifestyles of subjects whose perceived risks included diabetes, hyperlipidemia, smoking, and alcohol consumption were not significantly different to those in the non-perceived group. Patients with H-type hypertensive ischemic stroke who perceive hypertension as a risk factor have relatively good lifestyles. Therefore, efforts should be made to strengthen risk education for these patients to help improve their risk perception and lifestyles.

Risk of recurrent stroke and antiplatelet choice in breakthrough stroke while on aspirin

Uncertainty regarding an optimal antiplatelet regimen still exists in patients with breakthrough acute ischemic stroke (AIS) while on aspirin. This study provides an analysis of a prospective multicenter registry between April 2008 and April 2014. Eligible patients were on aspirin at the time of AIS and treated with antiplatelet regimens (aspirin, clopidogrel, or clopidogrel-aspirin). Potential factors associated with the choice of each antiplatelet regimen were explored and included a predictive risk score for future vascular events, the Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS). A total of 2348 patients (age, 69 ± 11 years; male, 57.7%) were analyzed, and 55.3%, 25.3% and 19.4% were treated with clopidogrel-aspirin, aspirin and clopidogrel, respectively. While the likelihood of choosing clopidogrel-aspirin increased as the ESRS increased, the likelihood of choosing aspirin decreased as the ESRS increased (Ptrend < 0.001). The ESRS category (0–1/2–3/ ≥ 4) modified the effect of antiplatelet regimens for 1-year vascular events (Pinteraction < 0.01). Among patients with ESRS ≥ 4, clopidogrel-aspirin (HR 0.47 [0.30–0.74]) and clopidogrel (HR 0.30 [0.15–0.60]) significantly reduced the risk of outcome events. Our study showed that more than half of the patients with aspirin failure were treated with clopidogrel-aspirin. In particular, a higher ESRS, which indicates an increased risk of recurrent stroke, was associated with the choice of clopidogrel-aspirin rather than aspirin.

Essen Stroke Risk Score Predicts Carotid Atherosclerosis in Chinese Community Populations.

BackgroundCarotid atherosclerosis (CA) is closely related to stroke, and Framingham Risk Score (FRS) has been used for CA risk evaluation. However, FRS could only be used for subjects of up to 74 years old. The present study was to determine if Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS) could be used to estimate CA risk in community populations without age limits.MethodsIn the present prospective multi-community screening study, we evaluated the prevalence of CA using high-resolution ultrasound in 521 males and 1039 females (35 to 91 years old). Both FRS and ESRS were calculated for the subjects. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to determine the predictive values of FRS and ESRS for CA in these subjects.ResultsUltrasound data showed that CA was present in 56.2% of the participants (total of 1560). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that ESRS was associated with CA with odds ratio (OR): 1.34 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.12–1.60, p=0.001). Central obesity (OR: 1.40, CI: 1.07–1.83, p=0.015), female (OR: 0.55, CI: 0.39–0.77, p <0.001) and age (OR: 2.63, CI: 2.27–3.06, p <0.001) were also associated with CA. Based on the estimated area under curve (AUC), FRS (AUC 0.775) was better than ESRS (AUC 0.693) (z statistic 6.774, p <0.001) for CA prediction for individuals of ≤74 years old. However, receiver operating characteristic analysis showed ESRS was a good CA predictor for all subjects (AUC of 0.715).ConclusionESRS could be used as an alternative to FRS to predict CA in community population of all age.

Analysis of the Risk Factors for the Recurrence of Ischemic Stroke with Diabetes Mellitus and Establishment of Cox’s Regression Model and the Personal Prognosis Index in Two Years of Follow-Up

Background: Ischemic stroke is a major cause of disability and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), and diabetic stroke has a high recurrence rate. Objectives: This prospective cohort study aimed at investigating the risk factors and establishing Cox’s regression model and personal prognosis index for the recurrence of ischemic stroke at a two-year follow-up in T2DM patients. Methods: T2DM patients with ischemic stroke, who were consecutively admitted to the Neurology Department of North China University of Science and Technology Affiliated Hospital between January 1, 2015, and December 31, 2015, were retrospectively reviewed. These cases were followed up since the onset of ischemic stroke for 2 years. Univariate and multivariate Cox’s proportional hazard regression model was used to analyze risk factors associated with the recurrence rate. Thus, a recurrence model and personal prognosis index were set up. Results: During the follow-up period, 44 cases relapsed. Furthermore, the 1-year recurrence rate was 16.48%, while the 2-year recurrence rate was 24.18%. The univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression model revealed that the independent risk factors associated with recurrence were TOAST criteria (X1) (RR = 1.663; 95% CI = 1.015 - 2.760, P = 0.032), hypertension grade (X2) (RR = 1.897; 95% CI = 1.097 - 3.280, P = 0.022), duration of diabetes mellitus (X3) (RR = 1.151; 95% CI = 1.009 - 1.991, P = 0.039), total cholesterol (X4) (RR = 1.13; 95% CI = 1.006 - 1.876, P = 0.035), and Essen stroke risk score (ESRS) (X5) (RR = 2.055; 95% CI = 1.357 - 3.134, P = 0.001). The personal prognosis index of the recurrence model was as follows: PI = 0.504 X1 + 0.640 X2 + 0.345 X3 + 0.759 X4 + 0.823 X5. Conclusions: TOAST criteria, hypertension grade, duration of diabetes mellitus, total cholesterol, and ESRS were the independent risk factors associated with the recurrence of ischemic stroke with diabetes mellitus. The recurrence model and personal prognosis index equation were successfully established.

Clinical risk factors associated with recurrence of ischemic stroke within two years: A cohort study.

To identify the clinical risk factors and investigate the efficacy of a classification model based on the identified factors for predicting 2-year recurrence after ischemic stroke.From June 2017 to January 2019, 358 patients with first-ever ischemic stroke were enrolled and followed up in Shenzhen Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital. Demographic and clinical characteristics were recorded by trained medical staff. The outcome was defined as recurrence within 2 years. A multivariate logistic regression model with risk factors and their interaction effects was established and evaluated.The mean (standard deviation) age of the participants was 61.6 (12.1) years, and 101 (28.2%) of the 358 patients were female. The common comorbidities included hypertension (286 patients, 79.9%), diabetes (148 patients, 41.3%), and hyperlipidemia (149 patients, 41.6%). The 2-year recurrence rate was 30.7%. Of the 23 potential risk factors, 10 were significantly different between recurrent and non-recurrent subjects in the univariate analysis. A multivariate logistic regression model was developed based on 10 risk factors. The significant variables include diabetes mellitus, smoking status, peripheral artery disease, hypercoagulable state, depression, 24 h minimum systolic blood pressure, 24 h maximum diastolic blood pressure, age, family history of stroke, NIHSS score status. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was 0.78 (95% confidence interval: 0.726–0.829) with a sensitivity of 0.61 and a specificity of 0.81, indicating a potential predictive ability.Ten risk factors were identified, and an effective classification model was built. This may aid clinicians in identifying high-risk patients who would benefit most from intensive follow-up and aggressive risk factor reduction.The clinical trial registration number: ChiCTR1800019647

Increased recurrent risk did not improve cerebrovascular disease survivors\u2019 response to stroke in China: a cross-sectional, community-based study

BackgroundCerebrovascular disease (CVD) survivors are at a high risk of recurrent stroke. Although it is thought that survivors with higher risk of stroke respond better to stroke onset, to date, no study has been able to demonstrate that. Thus, we investigated whether the intent to call emergency medical services (EMS) increased with recurrent stroke risk among CVD survivors.MethodsA cross-sectional community-based survey was conducted from January 2017 to May 2017, including 187,723 adults (age ≥ 40 years) across 69 administrative areas in China. A CVD survivor population of 6290 was analyzed. According to the stroke risk score based on Essen Stroke Risk Score, CVD survivors were divided into three subgroups: low (0), middle (1–3) and high (4–7) recurrent risk groups. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify the association between the stroke risk and stroke recognition, as well as stroke risk and EMS calling.ResultsThe estimated stroke recognition rate in CVD survivors with low, middle, and high risk was 89.0% (503/565), 85.2% (3841/4509), and 82.5% (1001/1213), respectively, while the rate of calling EMS was 66.7% (377/565), 64.3% (2897/4509), and 69.3% (840/1213), respectively. The CVD survivors’ knowledge of recognizing stroke and intent to call EMS did not improve with recurrent stroke risk, even after adjustment for multiple socio-demographic factors.ConclusionsDespite being at a higher risk of recurrent stroke, Chinese CVD survivors showed poor knowledge of stroke, and their intent to call EMS did not increase with recurrent stroke risk. Enhanced and stroke risk-orientated education on stroke recognition and proper response is needed for all CVD survivors.

Serum β2-Microglobulin Is Closely Associated With the Recurrence Risk and 3-Month Outcome of Acute Ischemic Stroke.

Background and Purpose: Inflammation plays a significant role in the pathogenesis of acute ischemic stroke (AIS). The role of β2-microglobulin (β2M) as a potential initiator of the inflammatory response in AIS is unclear. The purpose of this study was to analyze the relationship of serum β2M with the recurrence risk and 3-month outcome of AIS.Methods: A total of 205 patients with AIS were recruited, and their clinical and biochemical characteristics were collected. All patients were followed up for 3 months after stroke onset, and the occurrence of death or major disability at 3 months after onset was the outcome of interest in this study. We evaluated the association of serum β2M levels with the National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) scores, modified Rankin Scale (mRS) scores, and Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS) values in patients with AIS. Then, we used receiver operating curve analysis to calculate the optimal cutoff value for discriminating outcomes in patients with AIS and a binary logistic regression model to evaluate the risk factors for a poor outcome after AIS.Results: Our results showed that serum β2M levels were significantly and positively correlated with ESRS values (r = 0.176, P < 0.001) and mRS scores (r = 0.402, P < 0.001), but the levels of β2M were not correlated with NIHSS scores (r = 0.080, P = 0.255) or with infarct volume (r = 0.013, P = 0.859). In a further study, we found that 121 patients (59.02%) had poor outcomes. The optimal β2M cutoff to predict the 3-month outcome of AIS in this study was 1.865 mg/l, and β2M was independently associated with a poor outcome at 3 months (OR = 3.325, 95% confidence interval: 1.089~10.148).Conclusions: In conclusion, we inferred that serum β2M was positively associated with the recurrence risk and 3-month outcome of AIS, but it did not appear to be directly related to the severity of AIS or the size of the infarct at admission.

An analysis of the risk of perioperative ischemic stroke in patients undergoing non-cardiovascular and non-neurological surgeries

ABSTRACTObjectives: This study aimed to assess the preoperative risk factor for perioperative ischemic stroke (PIS) in patients undergoing non-cardiovascular and non-neurological surgeries.Methods: Patients were retrospectively enrolled and grouped into two groups at a ratio of 1:2 according to their PIS status, i.e. patients with PIS in disease group, and patients without PIS in control group. Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis were performed on admission laboratory test indices and preoperative risk factors for stroke. The pooled cohort equation (PCE), Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS), and Stroke Prognostic Instrument II (SPI-II) were used to separately assess the risk of stroke in patients with or without a history of stroke.Results: There were significant differences between the two groups in the levels of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), prealbumin, renal insufficiency, dyslipidemia, coronary heart disease, anemia, and hemoglobin; the incidence of electrolyte disturbance; and previous histories of smoking, drinking, and stroke. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that renal insufficiency, histories of smoking and stroke, and decreased HDL-C can increase the risk of PIS. There were no significant differences between the disease group and the control group in ESRS or SPI-II score in patients with stroke history. There was a significant difference between the two groups in the risk of PIS evaluated by PCE in patients without stroke history.Conclusions: History of stroke and smoking, renal insufficiency, and low HDL-C are independent risk factors for PIS. It is feasible to assess the risk of stroke in preoperative patients using PCE in clinical practice.

Effect of Huoxiang Zhengqi Pill on Early Neurological Deterioration in Patients with Acute Ischemic Stroke Undergoing Recanalization Therapy and Predictive Effect of Essen Score.

Early neurologic deterioration (END) in the acute phase of ischemic stroke is a serious clinical event, which is closely related to poor prognosis. Therefore, it is important to identify presentation features that predict END and take relevant treatment measures, as they could help to prevent the deterioration of high-risk patients. The prospective intervention study was carried out from January 2018 to December 2019. We included consecutive patients hospitalized for acute ischemic stroke (AIS) within 6 hours of onset. Patients were randomly assigned (1 : 1) to recanalization therapy plus Huoxiang Zhengqi Pill (HXZQ) (intervention group) or standard recanalization therapy alone (control group). The primary outcome was the development of END according to predefined criteria within the first 1 week of stroke onset. Poisson regression was used to identify predictors for END. Of the 155 patients enrolled in the study (age, 63 ± 11 years; 28.4% female), 20 (12.9%) developed END. Univariate analysis showed that the use of HXZQ and Essen stroke risk score (ESRS) (low risk group) were protective factors for END, while advanced age was a risk factor for END. However, in multivariate analysis, only ESRS (OR, 0.232; 95%CI, 0.058–0.928; P=0.039) and the use of HXZQ (OR, 0.297; 95%CI, 0.096–0.917; P=0.035) were statistically significant. ESRS can be used as the prediction factor of END. HXZQ has small side effects and wide indication. It could be used in the treatment of AIS.

Clinical Risk Score for Predicting Recurrence Following a Cerebral Ischemic Event.

Introduction: Recurrent stroke has a higher rate of death and disability. A number of risk scores have been developed to predict short-term and long-term risk of stroke following an initial episode of stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) with limited clinical utilities. In this paper, we review different risk score models and discuss their validity and clinical utilities.Methods: The PubMed bibliographic database was searched for original research articles on the various risk scores for risk of stroke following an initial episode of stroke or TIA. The validation of the models was evaluated by examining the internal and external validation process as well as statistical methodology, the study power, as well as the accuracy and metrics such as sensitivity and specificity.Results: Different risk score models have been derived from different study populations. Validation studies for these risk scores have produced conflicting results. Currently, ABCD2 score with diffusion weighted imaging (DWI) and Recurrence Risk Estimator at 90 days (RRE-90) are the two acceptable models for short-term risk prediction whereas Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS) and Stroke Prognosis Instrument-II (SPI-II) can be useful for prediction of long-term risk.Conclusion: The clinical risk scores that currently exist for predicting short-term and long-term risk of recurrent cerebral ischemia are limited in their performance and clinical utilities. There is a need for a better predictive tool which can overcome the limitations of current predictive models. Application of machine learning methods in combination with electronic health records may provide platform for development of new-generation predictive tools.

Comparison of Risk Scores for the Prediction of the Overall Cardiovascular Risk in Patients with Ischemic Stroke: The Athens Stroke Registry

BackgroundStratification of overall vascular risk in patients with ischemic stroke is important as it may guide management decisions. Currently available schemes have only modest prognostic accuracy. The TRA2°P score aids in vascular risk stratification in patients with previous myocardial infarction (MI). AimWe investigated whether the prognostic performance of TRA2°P can be extended in patients with ischemic stroke and whether it can improve the risk stratification made by CHA2DS2VASc and Essen-Stroke-Risk-Score (ESRS). MethodsWe analyzed the Athens Stroke Registry using Kaplan-Meier survival and Cox-regression analyses to assess if TRA2°P (in different categorizations) predicts the composite endpoint of stroke recurrence, MI or cardiovascular death. We compared its incremental predictive value over CHA2DS2-VASc and ESRS and calculated continuous net reclassification indices (cNRI). ResultsIn 2833 patients (followed for 9278 patient-years) and 776 events, there was decreased survival probability for TRA2°P-based high-risk patients compared to low-risk (log-rank-test P < .001), but the discriminatory power for the occurrence of the composite endpoint was only modest (Harrell's-C:.566, 95% CI:.545-.587). Combined with ESRS, TRA2°P conferred incremental discrimination (Harrell's-C:.544, 95% CI:.513-.574 versus .574, 95% CI:.543-.605 respectively, P = .049) and reclassification value (cNRI = 9.8%, P = .02). Combined with CHA2DS2-VASc, TRA2°P did not improve discrimination (Harell's-C:.578, 95% CI: .547-.608 versus .585, 95% CI:.554-.616, P = .738). ConclusionThe currently available prognostic scores have generally low performance to predict the overall cardiovascular risk in ischemic stroke patients. Further research is needed to improve vascular risk stratification in ischemic stroke patients.

Efficacy of clopidogrel for stroke depends on CYP2C19 genotype and risk profile.

Dual antiplatelet therapy (DAT) with clopidogrel plus aspirin has been suggested by American Heart Association/American Stroke Association guidelines for minor stroke (MS) and transient ischemic attack (TIA) patients. The purpose of this study was to find the potential subgroups that benefit from DAT. We aimed to compare the efficacy of clopidogrel-aspirin therapy with that of aspirin therapy in MS/TIA patients stratified by CYP2C19 genotype and risk profiles. CYP2C19 loss-of-function allele (LoFA) carriers were defined as patients with LoFA of either *2 or *3. Low- and high-risk profile was defined as Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS) <3 and ≥3, respectively. Stroke recurrence at 1 year was considered primary outcome. Of a total 2,933 MS/TIA patients, there were 1,726 (58.8%) LoFA carriers and 1,068 (36.4%) patients at high risk (ESRS ≥3). No significant difference for stroke recurrence between the clopidogrel-aspirin group and aspirin alone group was found in LoFA carriers (11.2% vs 13.3%, hazard ratio [HR] = 0.83, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.64~1.09). In stratified analyses by CYP2C19 genotype and ESRS, HRs (95% CIs) of the clopidogrel-aspirin therapy for stroke recurrence were 1.00 (0.70~1.42), 0.63 (0.41~0.97), 0.62 (0.40~0.96), and 0.52 (0.31~0.88) among subgroups of LoFA carriers at low risk, LoFA carriers at high risk, LoFA noncarriers at low risk, and LoFA noncarriers at high risk, respectively, with p = 0.021 for interaction. Overall, LoFA carriers do not benefit from DAT, but there is significant benefit for LoFA carriers who are at high risk. The benefit of clopidogrel in Chinese MS/TIA patients depends on CYP2C19 genotype and risk profile. ANN NEUROL 2019;86:419-426.