The temple of Hatshepsut is considered as a most interesting ancient architectural monument and its stability is of real concern to human civilization. The temple is completely incised into the rock mass of Gebel Gurnah which is composed of Esna shale overlain by highly fracture Thebes limestone. Recently, two rock falls have occurred. A geotechnical characterization of the site around the temple was carried out. The present work aims to evaluate the probability of further limited circular failures in the Esna shale. This evaluation is achieved by using a near circular failure model based on the behaviour of intact rock, in conjunction with the CSIR rock mass classification system which gives the reduced mechanical properties due to the increase in discontinuity sets and weathering of the rock mass of the mountain around the temple.